Service Plays Friday 5/29/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

Churchill Downs Picks 5/29

Fri May 29, 2020 9:15 am
Silver Ratio was a scratch yesterday and we hit a small $16 exacta in the 5th at Churchill. Today I have three races capped from Churchill. Good luck.

Race 1
#7 Heavy Roller $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 7-3-1

Race 8
#9 Leinster $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 9-3-4

Race 9
#9 Alex's Strike $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 9-5-2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Park Wagering Strategies - 5/29/20

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May 29, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Santa Anita
Friday, May 29, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Handicappers also are encouraged to access Jeff’s Daily Santa Anita Workout Analysis (see below), an exclusive report containing commentary, fractional times, grades, and a link to the video of the actual workout by each race’s key contenders.

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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Today’s Workout Analysis: View PDF File


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RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 7-Miss Glorious

Forecast: Miss Glorious has the benefit of a good tightener over the track and goes from the inside to the outside while adding blinkers. The daughter of Goldencents doesn’t appear to have much to fear among the newcomers so at 2-1 on the morning line we’ll make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Busy Paynter; 4-Sheza Factor; 5-Uno Trouble Maker; 6-Come On Kat

Forecast: This is a race we’re going to pass, as four of the six entrants must be considered legitimate contenders. The M. Glatt barn has two major players and both have strong credentials to win. Busy Paynter remains above her claim level and is reunited with “win rider” F. Prat over a Santa Anita main track that she’s won three races from five career starts. Freshened since mid-March but with a healthy series of recent workouts, she’s 8/5 on the morning line and probably deserves to be, but from the rail she’d better not make any mistakes. Glatt’s other starter, Come On Kat, is waiver protected in her first start in more than a year. She’s fired fresh in the past and the work tab should have her fit enough and from her comfortable outside draw the daughter of Munnings can pop and go or stalk and pounce. Uno Trouble Maker has won six of 13 starts over the local main track and returns to the claiming ranks for the first time since she won at this price last summer. The W. Spawr-trained mare has only one way to go, on the lead every step of the way. Sheza Factor, second off the claim for V. Garcia but remaining above her $20,000 purchase price, is another that does her best while on or near the lead throughout. Her sharp win here two races back vs. $16,000 restricted foes charts very well here.
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RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Let’s Get Wild; 7-Bella Chica; 8-Fireproof

Forecast: Lets Get Wild draws the coveted rail – an excellent place to leave from when the rail is out 30 feet – and the daughter of Ministers Wild Cat should utilize her projected ground-saving trip to good advantage. Runner-up in her last two starts over this course and distance and making a favorable jockey switch to A. Cedillo, the E.Kruljac-trained sophomore filly shows a bullet training track drill (:49 2/5) last week to have her primed and ready. Bella Chica has hit the board in all three of her career starts while developing a late-running style and should be heard from again in the final furlong. Fireproof represents stranger-danger from San Luis Rey Downs and has winning connections (R. Baltas/F. Prat). She shows a couple of strong five-furlong drills and is bred to adore grass (Unusual Heat). She’s a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 4: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-K P Whirlwind; 6-Boonesboro Beauty

Forecast: J P Whirlwind is equipped with blinkers for the first time, retains U. Rispoli, shows rising speed figures, drops to her lowest level ever, and lands the favorable inside draw in this main track miler for bottom rung restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claiming fillies and mares. The daughter of Congrats is guaranteed a ground-saving trip from what should be a comfortable second-flight, stalking position, so it all adds up. Boonesboro Beauty, in the frame in both of her starts at this level since arriving from the Bay Area, seems likely to drop back off the pace and then try to produce a winning late kick. Away since February but from an outfit that has superior stats with layoff runners, the daughter of Animal Kingdom could be the beneficiary of a speed jam that should set things up nicely for her, assuming waiting tactics will be employed. We’ll give J P Whirlwind preference on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Cool Runnings; 4-Railsplitter; 6-Fengari

Forecast: Fengari continues to impress in the a.m. and switches to R. Fuentes, a very live rider lately for the J. Sadler barn. The son of Artie Schiller returned off a nearly two year layoff to finish a better-than-looked fourth under these conditions last time out with a less-than-ideal trip (off slowly, wide) while earning a good speed figure for the level. With only a slight forward move, the 5-year-gelding should be capable of finally breaking his maiden at age five. Cool Runnings shows up in a claimer for the first time and the drop in class will be greatly appreciated. The son of American Pharoah shortens to a mile and should settle into a comfortable stalking position. Railsplitter, a beaten choice when second in a similar affair over this course and distance last time out, earned a career-top speed figure in the process and clearly is most comfortable on grass. A. Cedillo stays aboard and could find himself aboard the the controlling speed. These are the three we’ll be including in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Fengari.
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RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Curvaceous; 4-Big Passion

Forecast: This maiden $25,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares is borderline inscrutable. There’s nobody to trust and too many question marks to have a great feel for a race in which no result could be considered surprising. We’ll suggest going two-deep for small ticket players but the best advice is to use as many as your budge allows. Curvaceous displayed excellent early speed in her debut when facing maiden $50,000 foes two weeks ago and is wheeled back quickly and dropped to the bottom. If the A. Kitchingman-trained filly can produce any type of forward move, she could grab control early and never look back. Big Passion is a first-timer by Mr. Big with okay works for this level. The T. Yakteen barn has a solid record with debut runners and this filly looks fit and properly spotted, so at 5-1 on the morning line she’s certainly worth including.
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RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Kustom for Karl; 2-Bella Vita

Forecast: Kustom for Karl was highly impressive graduating over this course and distance in mid-May, hasn’t missed a beat in the morning since and looks primed for another major effort while drawing the highly-favorable rail post position. The J. Mullins-trained filly may not be quick enough to make the lead but should be quite comfortable with a ground-saving second-flight trip if that’s what the race flow dictates. There’s good value here at 3-1 on the morning line if you can get it. Bella Vita is wheeled back quickly in 13 days after earning a career top speed figure when a solid runner-up in the Evening Jewel Stakes on the main track. She’s back with “win rider” F. Prat and returns to what we believe is her preferred surface. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics while preference on top to Kustom for Karl.
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RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Itsthattime; 2-Zorich; 3-Big Hoof Dynamite

Forecast: The main contention is this starter’s allowance main track miler is drawn inside. First-time gelding Big Hoof Dynamite, runner-up over this track and distance in a similar affair last time out, retains F. Prat and should put his pace-stalking style to good use. Solid in the speed figure department and with a healthy recent series of drills, the E. Truman-trained gelding should be set for a forward move. Itsthattime, in the frame in each of his last five starts and third in the same race that ‘Dynamite just finished second in, could be the controlling speed from the rail, and given that type of trip the son of Strong Mandate projects to take this field a long way. The J. Bonde-trained gelding makes a major jockey switch to M. Smith and a recent half mile bullet workout (:46 4/5, fastest of 55) really catches the eye. Zorich may be the most dangerous of the closing types, has a good record over the local main track (in the money in four of five starts) and has solid, consistent speed figures for this level. We’ll include all three in our rolling exotics with a very slight edge on top to Big Hoof Dynamite.
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