Wednesday 7/29/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Hunter Price

Jul 29 '20, 2:30 PM in 2h
Soccer | Valerenga vs Molde
Play on: Valerenga +498 at 1BetVegas

1* Free Pick on Valerenga +498

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Ryan Worden

Jul 29 '20, 3:40 PM in 3h
MLB | COL vs OAK
Play on: UNDER 8 -100

German Marquez and Frankie Montas both pitched opening day for their respective teams and did not disappoint. After being shut down in last August of last year I was wondering how Marquez would look in his first outing of 2020. He pitched brilliantly taking a no hitter into the six inning before giving up 2 hits and run. Montas didn't last as long but pitched just as well allowing 3 hits and 1 earned run over 4 innings before being pulled after just 80 pitches. Fastball Velocity and control of secondary pitches looked great as well.
Betting UNDER 8 runs is usually a risky proposition that I steer clear from unless I believe both teams will get a quality start from their starting pitchers. With both guys looking dominant in their first action, this game being an early start after a night game and each team's unfamiliarity with the opposing pitcher means this has the makings of a low scoring affair. I'm Betting The UNDER.

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Dave Price

Jul 29 '20, 4:05 PM in 4h
MLB | Diamondbacks vs Rangers
Play on: Rangers -106 at betonline

Dave’s Wednesday Free Play:
1* on Texas Rangers -106
The Key: Lance Lynn resurrected his career in Texas last year. He went 16-11 with a 3.67 ERA and 1.22 WHIP across 33 starts. He picked up where he left off by firing 6 shutout innings with 9 K’s in a 1-0 victory over Colorado on July 24th. Lynn is 6-1 with a 3.38 ERA in 11 lifetime starts against Arizona. Madison Bumgarner is past his prime and a clear fade now. Take Texas.

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Alex Smart

Jul 29 '20, 6:10 PM in 6h
MLB | White Sox vs Indians
Play on: Indians +108 at BMaker


Strong starting pitching is supporting Clevelands run in the AL, which has seen its rotation record a 4-0 record with a 2.32 ERA and 43 strikeouts in five contests. Im betting on this to continue today, via their starter and the bullpen which is highly under rated.
The Indians swept the White Sox in a double header yesterday, and are playing solid all around baseball at the moment, and Im going to ride their momentum into this tilt. Note:The Cleveland Indians are 4-0 after sweeping a double header. MLB Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (CLEVELAND) - good team from last season, outscored opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game, vs. division opponents are 32-14 for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Indians to win on the ML

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Ricky Tran

Jul 29 '20, 6:37 PM in 6h
MLB | Nationals vs Blue Jays
Play on: Nationals -160 at 5Dimes

Ricky's 1* play on Washington.
Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.
Key Trends:
- Toronto will send an untested rookie to the mound here in Washington.
- Scherzer is 4-2 with a 2.24 ERA in nine starts against Toronto.
- Scherzer is 33-23 with a 2.99 ERA in 81 career starts at Nationals Park.
The verdict: The price is right to back Washington's ace.

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Brandon Lee

Jul 29 '20, 7:10 PM in 7h
MLB | Rays vs Braves
Play on: Braves -120 at betonline

10* FREE MLB PICK (Braves -120)
We are getting some amazing value here with Atlanta as a small home favorite against the Rays on Wednesday. Tampa Bay is getting a lot of love here having won 4 straight, but I see a clear edge on the mound for the Braves in this one.
Atlanta will send out one of baseball's best young starters in 22-year-old Mike Soroka. Last year Soroka went 13-4 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 29 starts. He was in prime form to start the season, tossing 6 shutout innings at the Mets.
While the Braves' ace was on his game to start 2020, the same can't be said for the Rays Charlie Morton, who allowed 6 runs on 7 hits in just 4 innings of a loss at home to the Blue Jays.
Atlanta is is 36-15 last 51 as a home favorite and a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 as a home favorite in an interleague matchup. Give me the Braves -120!

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Jack Jones

Jul 29 '20, 7:10 PM in 7h
MLB | Royals vs Tigers
Play on: Royals +122 at 5Dimes

Jack’s Free Pick Wednesday: Kansas City Royals +122
Any time the Detroit Tigers are favorites I’m going to look to fade them. They are arguably the worst team in baseball again in 2020, but they’re being overvalued now after opening 3-2.
Matt Boyd was rocked for 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his opening start against the Reds this season. Boyd is 5-9 with a 6.46 ERA and 1.576 WHIP in 19 career starts against the Royals. He is getting way too much respect here.
Danny Duffy allowed just three base runners in 4 1/3 innings against the Indians in his opener. Duffy has allowed 7 runs and zero homers over 15 innings in his last three starts against the Tigers for a 4.20 ERA.
Boyd is 2-15 (-13.5 units) against the money line vs. good power teams that average 1.25 or more HR’s/game over the last two seasons. The Tigers are 14-53 in their last 67 home games. Bet the Royals Wednesday.

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Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Wagering Strategies - 7/29/20

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July 29, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Saratoga
Wednesday, July 29, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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RACE 1: Post 1:10 ET. Grade: B
Use: Pass/No Play

Forecast: The first race is for hurdlers. We will pass the race.
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RACE 2: Post 1:21 ET. Grade: X
Use: 1-Big Al’s Gal; 4-Belleza

Forecast: Belleza shows up in a maiden $25,000 claimer for New York-bred fillies and mares after finishing a respectable second (beaten five lengths but finishing four clear of the others) in a maiden $40,000 affair earlier this month at Belmont Park. This is not a healthy sign, but the L. Rice barn isn’t afraid to drop and win and this 4-year-old daughter of Tiznow, with steadily rising speed figures, seems well-spotted to graduate. She’s listed at 7/5 on the morning line and is unlikely to offer any real wagering value. Big Al’s Gal chased much tougher foes on grass in her debut, and after not receiving any tote action (26-1) failed to land a blow when lacking speed throughout and winding up seventh of 10, beaten more than 13 lengths. The class drop is warranted, the switch to J. Rosario is a positive factor and since she’s not yet exposed we’ll include her on a ticket or two as a back-up or a saver.
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RACE 3: Post 1:54 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Five Alarm Robin; 6-Stormy Derby Day; 9-Positive Skew

Forecast: Stormy Derby Day exits a tougher $50,000 starter’s allowance event and is well-spotted today in this restricted (nw-2) $40,000 seller for fillies and mares over a middle distance on grass. Sharp when breaking her maiden for a tag two runs back at Gulfstream Park while earning a speed figure that is better than par for this level, the T. Bush-trained filly adds blinkers, lands I. Ortiz, Jr., and should be capable of regaining her winning form. In a race without any real pace, she’ll probably inherit the role as the controlling speed and receive a trip mirroring the one that produced her maiden score. Positive Skew, a solid runner-up in a similar affair last month, retains J. Rosario and is the most dangerous of the closing types. If she gets some help up front, the City Zip filly will make her presence felt in the final furlong. Five Alarm Robin, away since February after failing to make the course, is a fit on numbers and is capable of giving the favorite some competition off her best effort. She has a good stalking style and goes for a dangerous jockey/trainer combo. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Stormy Derby Day.
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RACE 4: Post 2:29 ET. Grade: C
Use: 1-Ajar/1a-Ashiham; 4-Lucky Asset; 6-Vicarage

Forecast: We’ll pass this race but include the three main players in our rolling exotics. The Shadwell Stable entry of Adjar and Ashiham is listed as the 6/5 morning line favorite and each has credentials to win this nine furlong main track maiden affair, though both are one-paced grinders and not particular fast on speed figures. Lucky Asset is an Honor Code gelding stretching out for the first time after earning a career-top speed figure when second in an extended dash at Keeneland last time out. There’s a possibility he’s late-running sprinter and nothing more, but if he can route he can win. Vicarage, scratched out of a maiden turf event July 18 (worked the same day), was six lengths clear of the rest when a decent runner-up over the main track at Tampa Bay Downs in May in what was just his second career start. He was late changing leads but was steadily grinding away before running out of room in a useful effort, and the son of Medaglia d’Oro has every reason to continue his improving pattern for the powerful C. Clement/J. Rosario team.
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RACE 5: Post 3:02 ET. Grade: X
Use: 1-War Canoe; 4-Classic Lady

Forecast: Classic Lady, in her first start for C. Clement and in her first outing since November, lost a toughie by a nose in the Mt. Vernon S. earlier this month at Belmont Park but she’s always been genuine and consistent and should fire a similar shot today. Winless in three starts over the local turf course but in the frame in each of those outings, the daughter of Jimmy Creed retains J. Rosario and projects to draft into a comfortable second flight position and have every chance to seal the deal from there. War Canoe, a close third in the same race ‘Lady exits, also has the second-off-the-layoff angle on her resume for a barn that has superior stats with that angle and seems likely to enjoy an ideal ground-saving trip from her rail draw. These are the two that will receive most of the play and they’re tough to separate, so we’ll include both in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 6: Post 3:37 ET. Grade: B
Use: 5-American Power; 6-Thebigfundamental

Forecast: American Power was in a bit too steep when unplaced in an optional $62,500 claimer earlier this month at Belmont Park but his race two back at this level – a tough nose defeat – charts very well here and the L. Rice-trained horse, a perfect two-for-two over the Saratoga main track, has the ideal style for this extended sprint distance. He’s reunited with “win rider” J. Ortiz, so everything adds up. Thebigfundamental, away since March of 2019, returns in a claimer – not usually a good sign, - but he’s a “must use” because the T. Pletcher barn’s record with layoff runners (30%) is off the charts. The son of Uncle Mo has never sprinted in his career but the works indicate he’s sharp and ready, so it’s possible he’ll be effective at this trip.
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RACE 7: Post 4:12 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Backtohisroots; 4-Sayyaaf

Forecast: Saayaf and Backtohisroots, two-three finishers in a similar second-level allowance turf sprint in June, renew their rivalry at the Spa and both figure to fire big shots. The former, a sharp winner over this course and distance last year, does his best running on the lead and wil have to deal with a couple of other speed types, but if he brings his best stuff the C. Brown-trained colt should be tough to outrun. ‘Roots will need some racing luck from his rail post, but as a second-flight stalker the J. Terranova-trained colt should have enough heat up front to promote his closing kick. In the frame in nine of 10 career starts and with a healthy work pattern since raced, the son of Mark Valeski may be set for a career top performance.
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RACE 8: Post 4:46 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Bebe Banker; 6-Blackjack Davey; 8-Danny California

Forecast: Bebe Banker crushed a restricted 25,000 claiming field by almost nine lengths in late June in a one-turn miler but was a voided claim and was returned to the barn of R. Rodriguez. He’s protected today in a sign of confidence, so if the New York-bred gelding can turn in two alike and handle the nine furlong trip the son of Central Banker could take this field gate-to-wire as the obvious controlling speed. However, he’s hardly a slam dunk to do so with a career record of 2-for-21. Blackjack Davey recently broke his maiden at Belmont Park in just his second career start while earning a speed figures that makes him a major player right back for the hot L. Rice barn. The son of Posse probably has a higher ceiling than most of these. Danny California is a one-paced grinding type but should enjoy an ideal second-flight trip and have his chance to wear down the leader in the final furlong. Back with “win rider” J. Rosario, the Afleet Alex gelding has a prior win at Saratoga (albeit over a sloppy track) and is a “must use” at 4-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 9: Post 5:17 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Wissahickon; 2-Therapist; 8-Devamani

Forecast: Devamani wasn’t quite good enough to make a serious impression in the Manhattan S.-G1 earlier this month at Belmont Park but the effort was good, as he kept to his task outside in the lane and was beaten less than three lengths. He’s back in the allowance ranks today and a repeat of his strong runner-up effort two races back in the Ft. Marcy S.-G2 should be good enough to handle this easier assignment. J. Rosario stays aboard and knows him well. Therapist was up in time to win the listed First Defence S. in June in his first outing since last October, and although his work pattern since then appears a bit spotty we’ll operate under the assumption that the C. Clement-trained gelding is ready for another top effort. He proven over the local lawn and if he’s in a position in the final stages to beat you, he will. Wissahickon is useful English invader making his U.S. debut in a winnable spot. Primarily an all-weather specialist but also a two-time winner on grass, the son of Tapit is a first time Lasix user for trainer J. Thomas (excellent stats wit Euro shippers) and on from shows at least two excellent victories off layoffs. You have to include him.
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RACE 10: Post 5:48 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Zaccapa; 4-Sequin; 6-Spectacularsunrise

Forecast: Maiden fillies and mares sprint on grass in the nightcap in what looks to be a fairly decent race for the level. Zaccapa ran well in her recent U.S. debut, pressing the pace but then weakening late over seven furlongs in her first outing in 10 months. The B. Cox barn hits with a very strong 25% with second-off-layoff runners and with this shortening to five and one-half furlongs the French-bred filly should be tough from a stalking or pressing position. Sequin, off the track since last October, returns for W. Ward (a good 21% with layoffs) and ran well over this course and distance last year when getting tagged right on the wire after opening up three lengths in mid-stretch. She could be a better type this time around, especially if held up early and allowed to run late. Spectacularsunrise, a first-timer by More Than Ready from the C. Brown barn, hasn’t done anything noteworthy in the morning but the barn is 22% with first-timers, so at 5-1 on the morning line she’s worth tossing in somewhere.
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Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick
FREE play for Wednesday, July 29, 2020
921. Tampa Bay Rays +1.11 (4:10 pm PT / 7:10 pm ET)

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Easy Money Sports

Lee's Free Wednesday Selection Is

PITTSBURGH w/Musgrove +133

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901COLORADO -902 OAKLAND
OAKLAND is 48-34 SU (10.6 Units) in home games in the second half of the season in the last 3 seasons.

903ARIZONA -904 TEXAS
ARIZONA is 18-8 SU (13.3 Units) when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=38%) in the last 3 seasons.

905CHI WHITE SOX -906 CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 32-22 SU (11.8 Units) vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.

907WASHINGTON -908 TORONTO
WASHINGTON is 21-8 SU (12.2 Units) when playing on Wednesday over the last 2 seasons.

909CHICAGO CUBS -910 CINCINNATI
CHICAGO CUBS are 47-64 SU (-23.4 Units) on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 in the last 3 seasons.

911MIAMI -912 BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 86-125 SU (-51.5 Units) in night games in the last 3 seasons.

913PHILADELPHIA -914 NY YANKEES
PHILADELPHIA is 72-113 SU (-49 Units) vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse since 1996.

915MILWAUKEE -916 PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 159-145 SU (-0.5 Units) in home games in July games since 1996.

917LA DODGERS -918 HOUSTON
LA DODGERS are 2-16 SU (-16 Units) vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs/game on the season in the last 3 seasons.

919BOSTON -920 NY METS
NY METS are 93-70 SU (16 Units) in the second half of the season in the last 3 seasons.

921TAMPA BAY -922 ATLANTA
ATLANTA is 0-11 SU (-12.6 Units) in home games with a team slugging percentage of .450 or better on the season (AL) since 1996.

923KANSAS CITY -924 DETROIT
DETROIT is 15-36 SU (-24.3 Units) in home games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last 2 seasons.

925ST LOUIS -926 MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 190-227 SU (-85 Units) vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season since 1996.

927SAN DIEGO -928 SAN FRANCISCO
SAN DIEGO is 39-59 SU (-28.9 Units) vs. NL teams allowing 4.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.

929SEATTLE -930 LA ANGELS
SEATTLE is 6-14 SU (-9.4 Units) in road games in July games in the last 3 seasons.

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MLB

Wednesday, July 29

National League
Chicago @ Cincinnati
Cubs (4-1):
Hendricks threw a complete game shutout against Milwaukee Friday; he is 6-3, 3.84 in 17 against the Reds, 2-3, 6.00 in eight starts here.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-0 Team in first 5 innings: 1-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-1 Totals: under 1-0

— Cubs won four of their first five games.
— Three of their last four games went over.

Reds (1-4):
Gray allowed one run in six IP in his first ’20 start; he is 3-2, 2.83 in six starts vs Chicago.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-0 Team in first 5 innings: 1-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-1 Totals: 0-0-1

— Reds lost four of their first five games.
— Three of their last four games went over.

Milwaukee @ Pittsburgh
Brewers (2-3):
Woodruff allowed two runs in five IP (85 PT) in his first ’20 start; he is 2-1, 5.02 in 7 games (5 starts) vs Pittsburgh.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-1 Team in first 5 innings: 0-1
Allowed run in first inning: 0-1 Totals: under 1-0

— Milwaukee lost three of its first five games, all on the road.
— Three of their last four games went over.

Pirates (2-3):
Musgrove allowed three runs in 5.2 IP (99 PT) in his first ’20 start; he is 0-1, 6.46 in four starts vs Milwaukee.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-1 Team in first 5 innings: 0-1
Allowed run in first inning: 0-1 Totals: over 1-0

— Pirates lost three of their first five games; they’re 0-3 scoring less than 8 runs.
— Over is 4-1 in their games.

San Diego @ San Francisco
Padres (4-1):
Paddack threw six shutout innings in his first ’20 start; he is 1-0, 2.65 in three starts against the Giants.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0-1
Allowed run in first inning: 0-1 Totals: over 1-0

— Padres won four of their first five games.
— San Diego’s last four games stayed under the total.

Giants (2-3):
Cueto allowed one run in four IP (63 PT) in his first ’20 start; he is 8-4, 3.30 in 15 starts vs San Diego. His last start vs San Diego was in 2017.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-1 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0-1
Allowed run in first inning: 0-1 Totals: over 1-0

— Giants lost three of their first five games.

American League
Chicago @ Cleveland
White Sox (1-4):
Giolito allowed seven runs in 3.2 IP in his first ’20 start; he is 2-2, 3.16 in four starts vs Cleveland.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-1 Team in first 5 innings: 0-1
Allowed run in first inning: 1-1 Totals: over 1-0

— Chicago lost four of its first five games (over 3-2).
— White Sox starting pitchers have thrown only 15.2 innings in five games.

Indians (4-1):
Plesac is 0-2, 5.25 in two starts vs Chicago.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-0 Totals: 0-0

— Cleveland won four of its first five games (under 4-1)

Kansas City @ Detroit
Royals (2-3):
Duffy allowed two runs in 4.1 IP (65 PT) in his first ’20 start; he is 8-10, 4.59 in 27 games (24 starts) vs Detroit, 5-3, 4.06 in 10 games (9 starts) here.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-1 Team in first 5 innings: 0-1
Allowed run in first inning: 0-1 Totals: under 1-0

— Royals lost three of their first five games.

Tigers (3-2):
Boyd allowed four runs in five IP (88 PT) in his first ’20 start; he is 5-9, 6.46 in 19 starts vs KC, 2-2, 6.00 in five starts LY.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-1 Team in first 5 innings: 0-1
Allowed run in first inning: 1-1 Totals: 0-0-1

— Detroit won three of its first five games

Seattle @ Angels
Mariners (1-4):
Dunn allowed two runs in 6.2 IP in four games as an opener LY.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-0 Totals: o-0

— Mariners lost four of first five games; they haven’t had a starter finish five innings yet.

Angels (2-3):
Heaney allowed one run in 4.2 IP (67 PT) in his first ’20 start; he is 1-4, 4.32 in nine starts vs Seattle.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-1 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0-1
Allowed run in first inning: 0-1 Totals: over 1-0

— Angels lost three of first five games.

Bronx @ Baltimore
Bronx (2-1):
Cole allowed one run in five IP (75 PT) in his first ’20 start; he is 0-0, 1.38 in two starts vs Baltimore.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-0 Team in first 5 innings: 1-0
Allowed run in first inning: 1-1 Totals: o-0-1

— Bronx won two of first three games, despite scoring nine runs.

Orioles (2-1):
Wojciechowski allowed five runs in five IP in two games (1 start) vs Bronx.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-0 Totals: 0-0

— Orioles won two of three games at Fenway, haven’t played since.

Interleague
Colorado @ Oakland
Rockies (3-1):
Marquez allowed one run in five IP (94 PT) in his first ’20 start; he allowed two runs in 7.2 IP in his one start vs Oakland.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-1 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0-1
Allowed run in first inning: 0-1 Totals: under 1-0

— Colorado won its last three games, allowing seven runs.

A’s (3-2):
Montas allowed one run in four IP (81 PT) in his first ’20 start; he allowed three runs in 4.1 IP in his one start vs Colorado.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0-1
Allowed run in first inning: 0-1 Totals: over 1-0

— A’s won three of their first five games, all at home.

Toronto @ Washington
Game is in Washington, Blue Jays will bat last- this is their “home” game
Blue Jays (3-2):
Ryu allowed three runs in 4.2 IP (97 PT) in his first ’20 start; he is 2-1, 1.35 in five starts vs Washington.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-0 Totals: o-0

— Toronto won three of its first five games, all on the road- their first game in Buffalo, their temporary home, is August 11.

Nationals (1-4):
Scherzer allowed four runs in 5.1 IP (94 PT) in his first ’20 start; he is 4-2, 2.24 in nine starts vs Toronto.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-1 Team in first 5 innings: 0-1
Allowed run in first inning: 1-1 Totals: 0-0-1

— Nationals lost four of first five games, scoring five runs in the four losses.

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta
Rays (3-1):
Morton allowed six runs in four IP (80 PT) in his first ’20 start; he is 3-2, 2.52 in six starts vs Atlanta.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-1 Team in first 5 innings: 0-1
Allowed run in first inning: 0-1 Totals: over 1-0

— Rays won their last four games, scoring 29 runs.

Braves (2-2):
Soroka blanked the Mets for six innings (69 PT) in his first ’20 start; he’s never pitched against Tampa Bay.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-1 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0-1
Allowed run in first inning: 0-1 Totals: under 1-0

— Braves lost three of their first five games, all on the road.

Boston @ Mets
Mets (3-2):
deGrom threw five shutout innings (72 PT) in his first ’20 start; he is 0-1, 3.46 in two starts vs Boston.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0-1
Allowed run in first inning: 0-1 Totals: under 1-0

— Mets won three of their first five games.

Red Sox (1-4):
Eovaldi allowed one run in six IP (89 PT) in his first ’20 start; he is 2-4, 4.40 in 10 starts against the Mets.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-0 Team in first 5 innings: 1-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-1 Totals: over 1-0

— Boston lost its last four games, allowing 7-7-7-8 runs.

Arizona @ Texas
Diamondbacks (2-2):
Bumgarner allowed three runs in 5.2 IP (100 PT) in his first ’20 start; he allowed six runs in seven IP in his one start vs Texas.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-1 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0-1
Allowed run in first inning: 0-1 Totals: over 1-0

— Arizona lost three of its first five games, scoring 13 runs.

Rangers (1-3):
Lynn blanked Colorado for six innings (108 PT) in his first ’20 start; he is 6-1, 3.22 in 13 games (11 starts) vs Arizona.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0-1
Allowed run in first inning: 0-1 Totals: under 1-0

— Texas lost its last three games, scoring five runs.

Los Angeles @ Houston
Dodgers (3-2):
May allowed one run in 4.1 IP (60 PT) in his first ’20 start, only his 5th MLB start.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0-1
Allowed run in first inning: 0-1 Totals: over 1-0

— Dodgers won three of their first five games.

Astros (3-2):
Looks like a bullpen game for Houston.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-0 Totals: 0-0

— Astros won three of their first five games, all at home.

St Louis @ Minnesota
Cardinals (2-2):
Ponce de Leon is 1-4, 3.29 in 25 MLB games (12 starts). He started eight games LY.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-0 Totals: o-0

— St Louis lost its last two games, scoring 1-3 runs..

Twins (3-1):
Hill is making his Minnesota debut; he’s started 156 MLB games. Hill was 4-1, 2.45 in 13 starts for LA last year. Hill is 3-1, 5.03 in 8 games (7 starts) vs St Louis.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-0 Totals: 0-0

— Minnesota won three of first four games, scoring 33 runs.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Wednesday, July 29

Trend Report

Colorado @ Oakland
Colorado
Colorado is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Colorado is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Oakland's last 12 games

Arizona @ Texas
Arizona
Arizona is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Texas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games
Texas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas's last 5 games at home

Washington @ Toronto
Washington
Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Toronto
Toronto is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington

Chi White Sox @ Cleveland
Chi White Sox
Chi White Sox is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Chi White Sox is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland
Cleveland is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
Cleveland is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox

Chi Cubs @ Cincinnati
Chi Cubs
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games on the road
Chi Cubs is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs
Cincinnati is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games

Milwaukee @ Pittsburgh
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 8 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
Tampa Bay @ Atlanta

Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta
Atlanta is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Atlanta's last 23 games at home

Kansas City @ Detroit
Kansas City
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 8 games
Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 8 games
Detroit is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Kansas City

LA Dodgers @ Houston
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games on the road
LA Dodgers is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games when playing LA Dodgers
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Dodgers

Boston @ NY Mets
Boston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games on the road
Boston is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
NY Mets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Mets's last 5 games
NY Mets is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Boston

NY Yankees @ Baltimore
NY Yankees
NY Yankees is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing at home against NY Yankees

St. Louis @ Minnesota
St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of St. Louis's last 16 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Minnesota's last 16 games when playing St. Louis
Minnesota is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing St. Louis

San Diego @ San Francisco
San Diego
San Diego is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
San Diego is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games
San Francisco is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games

Seattle @ LA Angels
Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Angels
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games on the road
LA Angels
LA Angels is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Seattle
LA Angels is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Seattle

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB public betting, line movement, sharp money for July 29
Patrick Everson

Jacob deGrom and New York opened a -190 home favorite and quickly went to -200, with visiting Boston a +170 underdog Wednesday.

MLB betting odds for Wednesday’s games hit the board and are seeing some early money. The game with the red circle around it is Boston Red Sox-New York Mets, because the always-stingy Jacob deGrom is on the mound at home for New York.

PointsBet USA's Patrick Eichner provided insights on MLB opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Wednesday’s matchups. Covers will update this action report with MLB sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the day.

MLB line movement

The Mets trot out deGrom for a 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch, and PointsBet USA responded accordingly. New York opened a -190 home favorite and quickly went to -200, with visiting Boston a +170 underdog Wednesday. There was no line movement by late Tuesday night.

Game 2 of the Los Angeles Dodgers-Houston Astros three-game set also goes off at 7:10 p.m. ET. However, as of 10 p.m. ET Tuesday, the opening line wasn’t on the board. Likewise, St. Louis Cardinals-Minnesota Twins was off the board late Tuesday. Check back for opening odds and early line movement on the above games and more.

MLB sharp money

On the BoSox-Mets clash, Eichner said. "We saw this moneyline move slightly off the opener, from some steady sharp and public action. The sharps got in early."

The opening total of 8 (Under -120) also saw sharp money right out of the gate at PointsBet USA and dropped to 7.5 (Over -115).

"The total is split between sharps and the public," Eichner said. "The sharps came in early on the Under, with deGrom on the hill."

Eichner noted that PointsBet USA is also already seeing action on first three innings Under 2.5 and first five innings Under 4.5.

MLB public betting

The Red Sox-Mets meeting also drew early public play Tuesday night at PointsBet USA, on both the side and the total.

"We're seeing the public on the Mets' side, as well. Over 90 percent of the bet count and handle at this point," Eichner said. "We're seeing the public bets coming in on the Over, too, as a bunch of runs have been scored in the first two games of the series."

Indeed, this four-game set – the first two in Boston, the next two in New York – both reached 11 runs, though the total was 11.5 in both games. Wednesday night's 7.5 surely looks tasty to public bettors, though there's a reason for that number, with deGrom on the bump.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Dunkel

Wednesday, July 29

NY Yankees @ Baltimore

Game 931-932
July 29, 2020 @ 7:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Yankees
(Cole) 17.870
Baltimore
(Wojchwski) 15.678
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Yankees
by 2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Yankees
-350
9
Dunkel Pick:
NY Yankees
(-350); Under

Colorado @ Oakland

Game 901-902
July 29, 2020 @ 3:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Colorado
(Marquez) 16.577
Oakland
(Montas) 17.657
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
-140
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(-140); Under

Arizona @ Texas

Game 903-904
July 29, 2020 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
(Bmgrner) 15.520
Texas
(Lynn) 14.500
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Texas
-130
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(+110); Under

Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland

Game 905-906
July 29, 2020 @ 6:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago White Sox
(Giolito) 13.050
Cleveland
(Plesac) 16.103
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 3
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago White Sox
-120
9
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+100); Over

Washington @ Toronto

Game 907-908
July 29, 2020 @ 6:37 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
(Scherzer) 18.259
Toronto
(Pearson) 17.122
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
-165
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-165); Under

Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati

Game 909-910
July 29, 2020 @ 6:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago Cubs
(Hendricks) 15.331
Cincinnati
(Gray) 16.467
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 1
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
-115
9 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(-115); Over

Milwaukee @ Pittsburgh

Game 915-916
July 29, 2020 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Milwaukee
(Woodruff) 14.342
Pittsburgh
(Musgrove) 15.771
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 1 1/2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
-155
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(+135); Under

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta

Game 921-922
July 29, 2020 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
(Morton) 18.210
Atlanta
(Soroka) 19.329
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
-120
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-120); Under

Boston @ NY Mets

Game 919-920
July 29, 2020 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston
(Eovaldi) 15.948
NY Mets
(deGrom) 14.829
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 1
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Mets
-185
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(+165); Under

Kansas City @ Detroit

Game 923-924
July 29, 2020 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
(Duffy) 15.358
Detroit
(Boyd) 12.729
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 2 1/2
10
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
-140
9 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(+120); Over

LA Dodgers @ Houston

Game 917-918
July 29, 2020 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Dodgers
(May) 17.646
Houston
(Javier) 16.484
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 1
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-130
10
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
(-130); Over

St. Louis @ Minnesota

Game 925-926
July 29, 2020 @ 8:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
St. Louis
(PnceDeLeon) 17.288
Minnesota
(Hill) 16.339
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
St. Louis
by 1
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
-155
10
Dunkel Pick:
St. Louis
(+135); Under

San Diego @ San Francisco

Game 927-928
July 29, 2020 @ 9:45 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Diego
(Paddack) 16.086
San Francisco
(Cueto) 14.569
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego
-160
8
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(-160); Under

Seattle @ LA Angels

Game 929-930
July 29, 2020 @ 10:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
(Dunn) 16.312
LA Angels
(Heaney) 15.445
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Angels
-200
9 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(+170); Under