Thursday 7/30/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Laurel - Race #2 - Post: 1:10pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,000 Class Rating: 91

Rating:

#4 CROUCHELLI (ML=5/2)


CROUCHELLI - Taking a class drop in Equibase class figure points from his Jul 4th race at Laurel. Based on that knowledge, I will give this horse the edge. This gelding should be in tip-top shape, this far into his form cycle. The 86 recent race speed rating looks mighty good in black and white.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 WILLMAKEYOUHAPPY (ML=2/1), #6 I'MTHETAPITNOW (ML=3/1), #5 FORFIFTYFIVEROCKET (ML=5/1),

WILLMAKEYOUHAPPY - 2/1 is not enough of a value to take on most any horse that has run poorly in back to back outings. Don't think this less than sharp equine will do much running today. That last speed figure was quite unimpressive when compared with today's Equibase class figure. I'MTHETAPITNOW - Doubtful for this thoroughbred to do much running with no success lately in a sprint race. FORFIFTYFIVEROCKET - This pony ran a somewhat easily forgotten speed rating in the last race. He shouldn't improve and will likely lose in today's race running that figure.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - CROUCHELLI - Consider this. Finished fifth on a track listed as good last time out. With better footing today, I'd expect a 25 percent improvement in ability.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#4 CROUCHELLI is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Evangeline Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $19500 Class Rating: 73

FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $10,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 GEM OF CARLOS 5/1
# 3 REACH THE CIRCLE 5/2
# 2 SIR POKERFACE 5/1

My selection in this competition is GEM OF CARLOS. Has run soundly when running a dirt sprint race. Has respectable Equibase speed figs and has to be considered for a wager for this event. REACH THE CIRCLE - He has been running soundly and the Equibase Speed Figures are among the top in this field. Conditioner has solid win rate (21 percent) at this distance and surface. SIR POKERFACE - He has competitive class ratings, averaging 77, and has to be given a shot in this event. Recorded a quite good Equibase speed fig last time out.

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park

07/30/20, GP, Race 1, 12.00 ET
07/30/20,GP,1,6F [Dirt] 1:08:01 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $17,000 (includes up to $2,000 FHBPA-FOA - FHBPA Florida Owners Awards). FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 119 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Claiming Price $10,000.
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Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	10	Harts N Flowers	5-1	Maragh R	Maragh Ricko	T	32.33	1.13/$1
097.7300	1	Commanding Lady	3-1	Torres C A	Delgado Gustavo		30.16	1.06/$1
097.5531	6	More Diamonds	9/2	Zayas E J	Abreu Fernando	JFL	32.33	1.13/$1
097.4113	11	Auburn	8-1	Meneses M	Gonzalez Oscar M.		30.16	1.06/$1
096.2768	7	Nenita	6-1	Burgos A	Sano Antonio		32.33	1.13/$1
096.1305	9	Nationalist	20-1	Fuentes M	Fuentes Mauricio	W	32.33	1.13/$1
095.7286	4	Hechizada	20-1	Rios J M	Sano Antonio	S	32.33	1.13/$1
095.6520	2	Irish Thunder	4-1	Camacho S	Fawkes David	EC	35.94	1.03/$1
095.5199	3	Merengue(b+)	20-1	Allen. Jr. R D	Arboritanza Joseph		32.33	1.13/$1
092.8483	12	Businessindubai	20-1	Reyes L R	Harris Nancy S.		29.08	1.23/$1
089.7722	5	Wicket Hope	30-1	Gonzalez S	Negrete Javier		36.11	1.25/$1
089.2112	8	Say Bye Bye	30-1	Rodriguez A A	Arias Juan D.		32.33	1.13/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 26.51, ROI 0.93/$1

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Thistledown - Race #2 - Post: 1:20pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,700 Class Rating: 88

Rating:

#2 DAPPER JACK (ML=9/2)
#5 ON FIRE (ML=3/1)
#1 PIOCHE GOLD (ML=5/2)


DAPPER JACK - I really like that last outing on July 20th at Thistledown where he ran third. Closed a ton of ground in that last race at 6 furlongs. Wouldn't be astonished to see him win today. ON FIRE - Rivera rode this horse for the first time last time around the track and comes right back in today's contest. The ROI when Rivera and Wolochuk partner up is good. Look at this gelding's PP lines. With each affair he keeps getting closer. PIOCHE GOLD - I'm optimistic this gelding will run well today. Last prep was 2nd fastest of the day, which tells me he's sharp right now. This jockey/conditioner duo has been producing a very lucrative ROI, right at +87.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 YOUNG AMERICAN (ML=7/2), #3 RED CHILL (ML=6/1), #4 TACTICAL QUALITY (ML=8/1),

YOUNG AMERICAN - Looked like he was in good form on Jul 6th. Hasn't been near the track since then though. Not a positive sign. You always think this horse has a shot to win, but he falls short regularly. RED CHILL - If he hasn't found the winning attitude by now, it will be tough for him to get it today. TACTICAL QUALITY - The speed figure in the last race doesn't fit very well in this clash when I look at the class figure of today's race. Mark this horse as a questionable contender.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #2 DAPPER JACK to win if you can get at least 4/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,5] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[1,2,5] with [1,2,5] with [1,2,3,5,6] with [1,2,3,5,6] Total Cost: $36

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Saratoga

07/30/20, SAR, Race 4, 2.54 ET
07/30/20,SAR,4,6F [Dirt] 1:08:00 CLAIMING. Purse $43,000. FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 122 lbs.; Older, 126 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race In 2020 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $25,000 (1.5% Aftercare Assessment Due At Time Of Claim Otherwise Claim Will Be Void).
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Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	3	Charlotte Webley	3-1	Ortiz. Jr. I	Englehart Jeremiah C.	JWL	37.78	1.91/$1
096.3086	2	Our Lady of Loreto	2-1	Santana. Jr. R	Rodriguez Rudy R.	TE	37.88	1.46/$1
096.2473	5	Rousey	7/2	Cancel E	Barker Edward R.		40.54	2.11/$1
096.1292	8	Becky's Mission	10-1	Gutierrez R	Englehart Chris J.		30.26	1.48/$1
095.7736	4	Kefaliani	8-1	Luzzi M J	Baker Charlton	F	40.54	2.11/$1
095.3382	7	Enough Love	4-1	Saez L	Falcone. Jr. Robert N.	C	30.26	1.48/$1
091.1399	1	Ja's Malibu	20-1	Hernandez B	Williams Andrew O.		40.54	2.11/$1
087.2856	6	Bella Invasion	50-1	Cardenas L	Persaud Randi		40.54	2.11/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 27.27, ROI 0.78/$1

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GAMEDAY NETWORK

FREE MLB WINNER 7/30/20
Indians @ Twins
Time: 7:07 PM EST
Free Pick: OVER 8.5

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DAILY FREE PICK FROM VEGASSI
THURSDAY 7/30/2020
FREE MLB PICKS
Red Sox @ Mets
TIME: 7:15 PM EST
PICK: OVER 9

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Jack Brayman

My free winner for Thursday is in the final game of the series between the Seattle Mariners and Angels, in Anaheim.

I love the road underdog in this one, and I'm going to list the scheduled starters. If your book allows you to do so, please list both Marco Gonzales and Dylan Bundy.

We're getting pure value here because Gonzales opened his season by getting beat by the Houston Astros, who thmacked him for four runs in 4.1 innings, on five hits and a walk. Thing is, I know what this kid is capable of, and I see the southpaw aiming to avenge last week with a dominating performance against a team he's done well against.

Gonzales steps to the mound with a 5-1 mark and 4.17 ERA in 12 career starts against the Halos, including a dominating 3-0 showing and 3.12 ERA in six starts in Anaheim. He should have plenty of confidence for this division battle.

I know Bundy looked exceptional in his season debut, allowing just one run in 6.2 innings with seven strikeouts at Oakland, but the Mariners just threw a 10-spot on the Halos last night. Seattle went into last night's late game ranked fourth in the league with a .256 batting average and tied for 10th with 28 runs.

This number is too big when you dig deeper into the analytics, so I'm going to take the road pup here.

5* MARINERS (Gonzales over Bundy)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Valentino

Thursday comp is to lay the juice on the Run Line with the Yankees as they once again make the Orioles their red-headed step child.

Last night New York breezed to a 9-3 win in the first meeting of the year against their division-rivals and for those of you that are counting that puts the Yanks at 17 wins in a row over the O's since last season!

17 wins in a row!

7 of the last 8 victories and 8 of the past 10 series wins have come by 2 runs or more.

The Yankees have also made Camden Yards their "home" as their 16 straight wins in Charm City is 2 games shy of the major league record set by Boston over New York all that way back from 2011 to 2013.

I really don't care who is pitching for either team, all I know is the Yankees simply own the Orioles and I expect them to own them again tonight.

Big chalk price for a Run Line play, but this is as close to a "sure thing" as it gets.

5* N.Y. YANKEES -1 1/2 RUNS

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Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick
FREE play for Thursday, July 30, 2020
7/30 04:15 PM MLB (966) MINNESOTA TWINS

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Chris Jordan

Let the eight-game NBA sprint begin.

The Los Angeles Lakers and Los Angeles Clippers begin the end of the regular season, and my free play for Thursday is on the purple and gold. The Lakers and Clippers figure to be the top two threats in the Western Conference when the playoffs begin, but right now I have to believe LeBron James and company have the edge and are the better team.

I'm not too concerned about Anthony Davis' absence, as I think we're going to see James take over in the return to action. Especially since Zion Williamson and the New Orleans Pelicans will be on display first tonight. No way the self-proclaimed King is going to be upstaged on opening night.

The Clippers may or may not be without stripper-wing Lou Williams, who has been quarantined after photographs of him surfaced from an Atlanta strip club during an excused absence. He said he went for food. Regardless, I'm not sure what he was thinking with more important things on the line.

The Clippers have been without key personnel since the bubble began, and I'm just not sold on the chemistry for the re-start of the season.

I'm more convinced about my James theory, and just see him having a big game. I'll be honest, I'm going to need a larger sample size before I give out premium NBA plays, so for now it's complimentary on me.

Let's start with the Lakers.

1* LAKERS

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Cappers Access

MLB (Thur) Cubs
MLB (Thur) Indians
NBA (Thur) Jazz +2.5
NBA (Thur) Lakers -4-

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Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Wagering Strategies - 7/30/20

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July 30, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Saratoga
Thursday, July 30, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.


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RACE 1: Post 1:10 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Punk Rock Princess; 4-Sugar Fix; 5-New Day Dawning

Forecast: Sugar Fix is the likely choice and the obvious one to beat as she seeks her sixth win of the year in this $40,000 claiming inner turf middle distance affair restricted to 3-year-old fillies. With a good stalking style and speed figures that are solid and consistent, she’s hard to fault based strictly one form. Punk Rock Princess, exiting a series of sprints, lands the rail and should be forwardly placed and have her chance. Her only prior outing on grass was quite good – she was a closing runner-up in an allowance race last year at Laurel Park – and in her present form the daughter of Bourbon Courage looks usable at 6-1 on the morning line. New Day Dawning drops below her claim level and may inherit the lead if she’s allowed to roll along from the start. A nice recent main track breeze should have her on edge. We’ll include all three in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Sugar Fix.
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RACE 2: Post 1:44 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Unrelenting Force; 6-Majestic View; 9-Senrima;

Forecast: This New York-bred maiden $40,000 claiming dash has three main contenders. Unrelenting Force returns to his claim level, shortens to an elongated sprint and a shows a good recent series of workouts after hitting the board in each of his last three starts, most recently with a career top speed figure. If he can negotiate a decent trip from the rail, the R. Handal-trained son of Carpe Diem should be capable of breaking his maiden in this, his seventh career start. Majestic View surfaces in a seller for the first time after flashing good early speed but fading in the lane in both previous outings, one in the mud and the other on grass. With the switch to J. Rosario and at 8-1 on the morning line, the J. Kimmel-trained colt certainly has a right to improve considerably against this group. Senrima, another dropping out of straight maiden company for the first time, adds blinkers, switches to I. Ortiz, Jr., and while slow early in both career outings has shown the ability to close a bit in the lane. Given the connections, you have to consider him.
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RACE 3: Post 2:20 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Foxtail; 7-Rosebud’s Hope

Forecast: This race has the potential to be chaotic, so tread lightly. We’ll try to get by using just two in our rolling exotics but not with any degree of confidence. Churchill Downs shipper Foxtail is a first-off-the-claim for D. Gargan, who has had a slow meeting so far but still boasts fancy first-off-the-claim stats (48% with a massive flat-bet profit with this angle). This drop from $40,000 to $25,000 for new connections normally would be considered a negative, but not necessarily from this stable. With I. Ortiz, Jr. taking the call, she has the look of a live item. Rosebud’s Hope drops to her lowest level ever in this $25,000 claiming middle distance turf affair for fillies and mares and if she can gain her coveted front-running trip she’s likely to take this field a very long way. There’s a bit of speed drawn inside of her, so if she’s forced to accept a stalker’s trip her chances will diminish. On the plus side, she’s a perfect one-for-one over the Saratoga lawn, and after a bit of freshening and van ride up from Monmouth Park the M. Stidham-trained mare should be competitive.
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RACE 4: Post 2:54 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Lour Lady of Loreto; 5-Rousey

Forecast: Our Lady of Loreto, second off a layoff for Rudy (a powerful 26% with this angle), blew a six length lead in her comeback last month in a $32,000 claimer and wound up second, but has a history of running better with a race behind her so we suspect she’ll step forward today with this one-level drop in class. She should be the quickest of the quick. Rousey earned a career top speed figure earlier this month against a stronger (nw-2) $40,000 field and drops to a proper spot today in this restricted (nw-2) $25,000 sprint for fillies and mares. That race was grass, but her dirt form is fairly decent, so we’re not too concerned about her return to the main track, and she certainly looks the most dangerous of the closing types. Yes, she’s picking up a lot of weight today but the possibility of a favorable race-shape could prove to be the deciding factor.
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RACE 5: Post 3:28 ET. Grade: B
Use: 5-Rinaldi; 8-Graded On a Curve

Forecast: Graded On a Curve came off the bench to register a sharp first-level state-bred allowance score last month in his first outing since October and appears capable of repeating on the raise after being kept on edge with a strong, healthy work pattern in the interim for C. Brown. He’s a deep closing type and as such would appreciate a bit of help up front, but while the projected pace flow of this race looks moderate at best the Noble Mission gelding just won when rallying against the grain and can do it again. Rinaldi, lightly-raced with some upside and a solid fit on speed figures, finished a solid runner-up in his recent comeback and is from a stable that does well with the second-off-the layoff angle. The Posse gelding can be tough on the lead or from a stalking position, so if no real pace materializes regular pilot L. Saez should be able to locate an ideal spot. We’ll prefer Graded On a Curve on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 6: Post 4:04 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 5-More Mango; 7-Checksandbalances; 11-Kitten’s Romance

Forecast: Here’s a competitive maiden claiming $40,000 middle distance turf event for fillies and mares. More Mango, first off the claim for M. Maker after finishing third at this level last month at Belmont Park, adds blinkers for her third career start and can be expected to produce a significant forward move in a race in which the pace projects to be moderate at best. The daughter of More Than Ready sports a healthy work tab since changing barns, is drawn comfortably toward the inside and should find herself on or near the lead throughout with the switch to the barn’s “go to” rider J. Ortiz. Checksandbalances was disappointing when fifth in her debut vs. maiden $75,000 foes last month but I. Ortiz. Jr. stays aboard for a barn hits at a remarkable 35% with second-timers. Based on pure numbers the Irish-bred filly is a major player for C. Brown. Kitten’s Romance is drawn farther out than we’d prefer but after finishing third in her debut in a productive heat last month at Churchill Downs the W. Ward-trained filly seems likely to improve and be a factor from off the pace.
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RACE 7: Post 4:40 ET. Grade: X
Use: 5-My Man Flintstone; 8-Mister Bobby
Forecast: My Man Flintstone earned a career top number when a respectable second as the favorite (while more than 10 lengths clear of the rest) in a restricted (nw-2) $50,000 claiming sprint at Keeneland last month and today is protected in starter’s allowance company in a sign of confidence by trainer K. McPeek. The son of Into Mischief has enough speed to be on or near the lead throughout and with only a slight bit of improvement should be tough to run down. Mister Bobby, from his cozy outside draw, should inherit a good pace-stalking position and have dead aim on ‘Flintstone throughout. In his second off a layoff for the Bond barn (superior stats with this angle), the Shanghai Bobby gelding is a strong contender, although it’s not likely he’ll be offering any real value at or near his morning line of 7/5. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll give My Man Flintstone a slight edge on top.
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RACE 8: Post 5:14 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Blue Atlas; 3-Short Pour; 8-Barrel of Destiny

Forecast: Short Pour, a sharp runner-up sprinting on grass last month in her first start since November, projects as the controlling speed and will take this field as far as she can. The M. Hennig barn boasts terrific stats with the second-off-the layoff angle and shows excellent previous form on grass at Saratoga, where she won a two-turn affair gate-to-wire last year. She offers wagering value at or near her morning line of 9/2. Barrel of Destiny, a $16,000 claim two run back and a winner of a first-level allowance state-bred turf miler last month, moves up another level in class for M. Maker and looks to be a major player once again, though L. Saez, who was aboard her last time, jumps off to ride Short Pour. The daughter of Bluegrass Cat is winless in four prior starts over the local lawn but clearly is a better type now and should settle in mid-pack and then make her presence felt from the quarter pole home. Blue Atlas is listed at 6-1 on the morning line and is worth including somewhere on your ticket at that price. Protected after a nice score vs. $25,000 claimers earlier this month in her first outing since October, the daughter of English Channel is a fit on figures, protected in a sign of confidence, and retains J. Ortiz while drawing a nice inside post position.
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RACE 9: Post 5:46 ET. Grade: B
Use: 4-Admundson; 5-Bankit; 6-Funny Guy

Forecast: This extended sprint handicap for New York-bred older horses brings together familiar faces in a race that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Amundson has won four of 10 career starts and was most recently a strong second in a highly-rated allowance race at Belmont Park at this seven furlong trip last month that produced a career-top speed figure. The Curlin gelding seems likely to be the controlling speed, just as he was when winning the Hollie Hughes Stakes vs. similar company at the Big A last winter. Funny Guy just won the Commentator Stakes with a powerful triple-digit Beyer speed figure (a career top) from off the pace, but today shortens to seven furlongs and may find this trip a bit sharp, especially if the pace is slow to moderate. Still,, he’s been first or second in eight of 11 starts, retains J. Rosario, and probably will go favored. Bankit is a deep closing sprinter with races that make him dangerous, but the projected pace flow may compliment his style. In the frame in five of his last six starts but obviously pace dependent, the son of Central Banker probably is worth including as back-up or a saver but not much more than that.
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RACE 10: Post 6:18 ET. Grade: B
Use: Boom Boom Kaboom; 4-Tempesta

Forecast: The finale is carded for maiden claiming New York-bred turf sprinters; we’ll try to get by using just two. Boom Boom Kaboom shows up in a seller for the first, adds blinkers, and earned a speed figure in his last start that his better than par for this level. The G. Weaver-trained son of Emcee should be within striking range throughout and have no excuses. Tempestawas good third (beaten a neck) in a representative race for the level last month and won’t need much more to earn his diploma. The son of Noble Mission likely will settle in the second flight and produce his run when called upon.
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Mikey Money

MLB CINCINNATI REDS ‑120

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Vegas Investment Picks

MLB TAMPA BAY RAYS +125