Monday 8/10/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA

Monday, August 10

Trend Report

Connecticut @ Atlanta
Connecticut
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Connecticut's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Connecticut's last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta
Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Connecticut
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Connecticut

Phoenix @ Dallas
Phoenix
Phoenix is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Phoenix is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games at home

Chicago @ Seattle
Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Chicago's last 19 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Chicago's last 9 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Seattle
Seattle is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA Betting Trends, Records to Watch
Joe Williams

The WNBA continues to march on in the bubble at IMG Academy in Bradenton, Fla., and it has been a very entertaining time in Central Florida so far.



Easily one of the biggest surprises this season came on Friday night, as the winless New York Liberty limped in as 16.5-point underdogs (ML +1000) against the defending champion Washington Mystics. After the smoke cleared, the Liberty were celebrating their first win of the season, 74-66. After opening 3-0 SU, the Mystics are in freefall, dropping and failing to cover in three straight. The Liberty nearly did it again on Sunday, but came up just short against the Las Vegas Aces, 78-76, although they comfortably covered a 13.5-point number.

WNBA Team Trends

Atlanta Dream
Record (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS, 2-4-1 O/U)

Last Game - L 75-85 (+1.5) vs. Dallas (Under 166)
Enter new week on a four-game losing streak (1-3 ATS) after opening season 2-1 SU/ATS
Under is 4-1-1 across the past six games
Ranks 12th (last) in WNBA with 89.3 points per game allowed

Chicago Sky
Record (5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS, 3-4 O/U)

Last Game - W 100-93 (-2.5) vs. Connecticut (Over 168)
3-4 ATS over all this season, haven't covered in consecutive games at any point
Over 2-0 in past two outings after Under went 4-1 in first five
Ranks 1st in WNBA with 88.7 points per game and offensive field-goal percentage (49.0)

Connecticut Sun
Record (1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS, 3-4 O/U)

Last Game - L 93-100 (+2.5) vs. Chicago (Over 168)
Ranks 11th with 80.1 PPG, but averaging 92.0 PPG across past two outings
Over 2-1 across past three after Under started 3-1 in first four
Just 1-2 SU/ATS as a favorite this season
Under is perfect 3-0 when favored

Dallas Wings
Record (3-4 SU, 3-3-1 ATS, 2-5 O/U)

Last Game - W 85-75 (-1.5) vs. Atlanta (Under 166)
Under has cashed in five straight for Wings after Over went 2-0 in first two
Ranks 11th with 41.5 field-goal percentage and 10th in 3-point percentage (30.9)
Worst defensive rebounding team in WNBA, avearging 37.4 RPG

Indiana Fever
Record (3-4 SU, 3-3-1 ATS, 4-2-1 O/U)

Last Game - W 91-84 (+4, ML +150) vs. Washington (Over 167.5)
Avenged 101-76 loss to Mystics on July 25 in first game inside the bubble
Have won outright three times as an underdog
Each of their two meetings with Washington have hit the over (2-2-1 vs. everyone else)

Las Vegas Aces
Record (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS, 2-5 O/U)

Last Game - W 78-76 (-14.5) vs. New York (Under 164)
After opening the season 4-1 ATS in first five, Aces have failed to cover in consecutive games
Over has not cashed in consecutive games for the Aces this season
Aces rank 1st in WNBA in 3-point shooting percentage (40.0)
Las Vegas ranks second in offensive field-goal percentage (48.0)
Aces rank 2nd in WNBA in defensive field-goal percentage (43.8)

Los Angeles Sparks
Record (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS, 4-3 O/U)

Last Game - W 97-81 (-8) vs. Minnesota (Over 152)
Have alternated wins and losses (W-L-W-L-W-L-W) so far this season
Over is 2-0 in past two games, and they have scored at least 82 points in three in a row
On a 3-0 ATS run after opening season 1-3 ATS

Minnesota Lynx
Record (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS, 3-4 O/U)

Last Game - L 81-97 (+8) vs. Los Angeles (Over 152)
Non-cover against Sparks snaps a 4-0 ATS run
Over is 3-0 in past three outings after 4-0 Under run to open season
Ranks 2nd in WNBA in points allowed (78.9 PPG)

New York Liberty
Record (1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS, 3-4 O/U)

Last Game - L 78-76 (+14.5) vs. Las Vegas (Under 164)
After opening season 0-5 SU/ATS, Liberty have covered back-to-back games
Under has hit in four of the past five after Over started 2-0 for Liberty
Liberty rank dead-last in points per game (72.7), field-goal percentage (36.4) and 3-point shooting percentage (26.9)

Phoenix Mercury
Record (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS, 4-3 O/U)

Last Game - L 68-74 (+5) vs. Seattle (Under 166.5)
2-0 SU/ATS in past two as a favorite
Under 3-1 across past four after opening on a 3-0 Over run
Scored season-low 68 points vs. Seattle
Still rank 2nd in WNBA in points scored per game (88.4)

Seattle Storm
Record (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS, 3-4 O/U)

Last Game - W 74-68 (-5) vs. Phoenix (Under 166.5)
4-0 SU/3-1 ATS across past four outings
2-0 ATS after failing to cover in previous game
Under is 4-2 across past six contests
Ranks 1st in points allowed (76.4) and defensive field-goal percentage (39.6)

Washington Mystics
Record (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS, 3-4 O/U)

Last Game - L 84-91 (-4) vs. Indiana (Over 167.5)
After starting out 3-0 SU/ATS, Mystics are 0-4 SU/ATS in past four outings
Over result in Sunday snaps a four-game Under run
Just 1-4 SU/ATS as a favorite this season, including 0-4 SU/ATS in past four

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen DeAngelo

Sunday’s comp play on the Orioles ended up being a no-play, as the game was suspended in the sixth inning because of rain (sucks, too, because Baltimore was leading 5-2 and set to cash as a +210 dog). Still on a 15-8 run with these freebies, hitting four of the last five overall, including three straight in the NBA.



For Monday, it’s back to the pro hardwood as we’ll grab the points with the Nuggets against the Lakers. As you may recall, I’ve faded the Lakers twice since the NBA restarted its season and cashed easily both times, as LA got blown out by both Toronto (107-92) and Houston (113-97).



The Lakers followed up Thursday’s loss to the Rockets with another defeat Saturday, falling 116-111 to Indiana as a 5½-point favorite. LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Co. have now dropped three in a row and four of their last five and — most importantly from a betting perspective — they’ve cashed just once in six games in Orlando. And even that spread-cover was shaky (8-point win over Utah as a 6-point chalk).



Conversely, the Nuggets enter this one on a 3-1 SU and ATS roll. Granted, Denver needed overtime to secure two of those wins and covers (134-132 over Utah as a 1-point dog and 121-113 over Oklahoma City as a 5½-point dog), but Nuggets backers still got paid.



These teams met three times in nine weeks between Dec. 3 and Feb. 12, with the visitor getting the win and cover in all three (LA beat the Nuggets in Denver by scores of 105-96 and 120-116 in overtime, while the Nuggets prevailed 128-104 in Hollywood). So while the Lakers own the advantage in the win column, Denver owns the most impressive victory — in other words, these squads are pretty even to me, making the handful of points we’re getting tonight quite enticing.



Keep in mind, too, that since a scintillating 9-2 ATS run from Feb. 10-March 8, the Lakers have cashed just one time (the Utah game) in their last seven contests. They also have just two outright wins in those seven games.


As I noted the other day, something’s not right with this Lakers squad. And until I see signs of them turning things around, I see no reason not fade them when they’re laying points against a quality opponent, one that’s 22 games over .500 with a 46-24 record.

4* DENVER (on a 1* to 5* rating system)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mitchell Newman

Monday's free play will be laying the points with the Los Angeles Lakers as they take on the Denver Nuggets.

L.A. has clinched the # 1 spot for the upcoming Western Conference playoffs, but with just a 2-4 mark in bubble play and 3 straight losses absorbed, you could say that Frank Vogel's team is in need of finishing up these last pair of games with some positive momentum.

Denver is looking to secure the # 3 seed in the West and they play this game off of a thrilling double-overtime win over the Utah Jazz on Saturday, The Nuggets did manage to win that game to make it 3 of 5 in the win column inside the Orlando bubble, but they also managed to squander a 6 point lead with 19 seconds remaining in regulation.

With Will Barton and Gary Harris expected to miss their 5th straight game and with Denver coming off of double-overtime and having played 2 of their last 4 games needing overtime to decide, I think this spot looks perfect for the Lakers to iron out some of their kinks before the postseason gets underway.

Take the Lakers minus the points.

3* L.A. LAKERS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA line movement for August 10
Patrick Everson

Kyle Lowry and the Raptors are 4-1 SU and ATS inside the NBA Bubble in Orlando, heading into a Monday clash against the Bucks. FanDuel Sportsbook has Milwaukee a 5.5-point favorite.

NBA betting odds are on the board and drawing dollars for Monday’s five-game slate. Among the highlights in the NBA Bubble is a matchup between the Bucks and Raptors, the top two teams in the Eastern Conference, though both are locked in and don’t have much to play for.

Multiple oddsmakers provided insights on NBA opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Monday’s matchups.

NBA line movement

Toronto is among the hottest teams in the NBA Bubble, and in fact, the Raptors picked up where they left off pre-shutdown in March. Kyle Lowry and Co. are 4-1 SU and ATS in Orlando, after winning their last four SU back in March. Milwaukee has been a little back-and-forth in the bubble at 2-3 SU and ATS heading into this 6:30 p.m. ET clash.

FanDuel Sportsbook pegged the Bucks a 5.5-point favorite Sunday night, and there was no line movement.

Luka Doncic is catching a lot of eyes in the NBA Bubble, particularly for his 36-point effort in the Mavericks’ last outing, a 136-132 overtime victory Saturday against the aforementioned Bucks. However, Doncic will rest for this 3 p.m. ET tip, and most books don’t have the Mavs-Jazz line on the board yet.

In Monday’s 9 p.m. ET nightcap, the Lakers take on the Nuggets. Los Angeles, which has the West’s No. 1 seed wrapped up, opened a 4.5-point favorite at The SuperBook at Westgate and stretched to -5.5 Sunday night.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

737OKLAHOMA CITY -738 PHOENIX
PHOENIX is 9-0 ATS (9 Units) in road games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons.

739DALLAS -740 UTAH
UTAH is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread in the current season.

741TORONTO -742 MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 34-14 ATS (18.6 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite in the last 3 seasons.

743INDIANA -744 MIAMI
INDIANA is 11-2 ATS (8.8 Units) in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game in the current season.

745DENVER -746 LA LAKERS
LA LAKERS are 14-5 ATS (8.5 Units) in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game in the current season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Monday, August 10

Trend Report

Oklahoma City @ Phoenix
Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Phoenix
Oklahoma City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Phoenix
Phoenix
Phoenix is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Phoenix is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Dallas @ Utah
Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Dallas's last 12 games when playing Utah
Utah
Utah is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas
Utah is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Dallas

Toronto @ Milwaukee
Toronto
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Toronto is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games at home
Milwaukee is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home

Indiana @ Miami
Indiana
Indiana is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
Indiana is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Miami
Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing at home against Indiana
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Miami's last 9 games when playing Indiana

Denver @ LA Lakers
Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games
Denver is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Lakers's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Lakers's last 9 games

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Wynn

Free Pick: LA Dodgers w/May -160 over San Diego

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR MONDAY: MILWAUKEE (Houser) Pick'em over Minnesota

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Roz Wins

Roz's MONDAY, AUGUST 10, 2020 Free Pick



NBA

738. Nuggets +4.5 (6:05 PT / 9:05 ET)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Atlantic Sports

Monday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Houston Astros

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Platinum Plays

Your Free Pick: the Chicago Wsox w/Keuchel -140 over Detroit

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sharp Bettor
SharpBettor FREE Play MONDAY, August 10, 2020

MLB

909. Twins -1.08 (5:15 PT / 8:15 ET)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Easy Money Sports

Lee's Free Early Monday Selection Is

DALLAS +6½

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nevada Sharpshooter

Your free winner for Monday : COLORADO (Gray) -125 over Arizona