Tuesday 8/11/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Price

Aug 11 '20, 7:05 PM in 2h
MLB | Braves vs Yankees
Play on: Yankees -130 at betonline

Dave’s Tuesday Free Play:
1* on New York Yankees -130
The Key: We are getting a great price on the New York Yankees at home today against the Atlanta Braves because they have lost 4 of their last 5 coming in. Jordan Montgomery has been much better at home than on the road, and he held Boston to just one earned run in 5 2/3 innings of a 5-1 victory in his lone home start this year. Atlanta is hitting just .175 and scoring 3.0 RPG against left-handed starters this season. The Yankees are 25-7 as home favorites of -125 to -175 over the last 2 years. The Yankees are 23-5 in home games off a loss over the last 2 seasons. Take New York.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Conn

Aug 11 '20, 7:10 PM in 2h
MLB | Nationals vs Mets
Play on: Nationals -141 at 5Dimes

1* Free Play on Nationals -141

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger Lakes

Finger Lakes - Race 6	EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 Cent Minimum) * DAILY DOUBLE (Races 6-7) * PICK 3 (50 Cent Minimum: Races 6-7-8)
Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 68 • Purse: $26,500 • Post: 3:25P
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. TROUBLESHOOTER is the Lone Front-runner of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * WESWORLD: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. DUCK POND ROAD: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. T oday is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
5	WESWORLD	3/2	9/5
1	DUCK POND ROAD	4/1	5/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	TROUBLESHOOTER	2	3/1	Front-runner	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
1	DUCK POND ROAD	1	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	64	49	44.0	47.0	38.5
5	WESWORLD	5	3/2	Trailer	70	61	38.7	58.1	55.1
3	THEMSFIGHTINWORDS	3	8/1	Trailer	0	0	29.9	49.4	44.4
7	OBSESSION'S EMPIRE	7	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	50.0	37.5	30.0
6	HONOR THY SECRET	6	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	58	47	46.2	37.0	26.5
4	J D'S VICTORY	4	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	34.1	28.4	15.4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Arapahoe Park

Arapahoe Park - Race 5	W/P/S / Quinella / Exacta / Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7)
Claiming $2,500 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 80 • Purse: $4,500 • Post: 2:40P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $2,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * MUSIC GIANT: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. DURTDOBBR: Horse has a Tra ckMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. REAL HEAT: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. MAXIMUS THE GREAT: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. BEIRUT: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Spe ed Figure at the distance/surface.
1	MUSIC GIANT	8/1	5/1
3	DURTDOBBR	4/1	6/1
5	REAL HEAT	9/2	8/1
6	MAXIMUS THE GREAT	6/1	8/1
10	BEIRUT	10/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	DURTDOBBR	3	4/1	Front-runner	88	83	64.0	78.0	73.0
4	ROB'S GOLDEN TOUCH	4	7/2	Front-runner	76	70	41.7	74.9	60.4
5	REAL HEAT	5	9/2	Alternator/Front-runner	86	76	75.4	70.0	64.0
9	ET TU BRUTAE	9	5/2	Alternator/Front-runner	80	74	46.4	65.8	57.3
6	MAXIMUS THE GREAT	6	6/1	Stalker	79	74	89.1	69.2	58.7
10	BEIRUT	10	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	81	82	62.0	76.5	63.0
1	MUSIC GIANT	1	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	84	81	55.4	74.0	71.0
8	SUPERSTYLE	8	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	79	72	66.2	68.6	55.1
2	MALONE	2	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	77	72	61.0	61.0	43.0
7	BOURBON PRIDE	7	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	85	70	36.5	36.5	20.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Louisiana Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Allowance - 7.5f on the Turf. Purse: $20500 Class Rating: 69

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 11 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 OUR SLICK CHICK 1/1
# 2 SAINT KENNEDY 8/1
# 3 AMERICAN DREAM 2/1

OUR SLICK CHICK looks to be the bet in here. Like the finishing positions in the last couple of events. She should have a strong performance versus this easier group. Foster has this mare travelling well and is a very good pick based on the very good Equibase Speed Figures earned in sprint races recently. SAINT KENNEDY - Reliable average Equibase Speed Figures in turf sprint races make this animal a solid choice. With a decent 63 speed fig last time out, will unquestionably be a factor in this contest. AMERICAN DREAM - Wagerers have been noting speed boosts from runners changing equipment (blinkers on today). Has a very solid record at the distance and surface, which makes me have to support this filly.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Presque Isle Downs - Race #4 - Post: 6:00pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 68

Rating:

#7 MR. MIKE (ML=3/1)
#10 FRIO (ML=8/1)


MR. MIKE - Quite frequently, I play a maiden that finished runner up easily ahead of the 3rd-place finisher in his last contest. This jockey and conditioner are honest together. Win percent when teamed up is difficult to best. The March 14th event at Aqueduct was at a class level of (74). Dropping to a lower class rank considerably, so he should be in a good place. FRIO - Has a pretty good opportunity to break maiden going to the dirt in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 MAMMOTH (ML=9/2), #8 WATCH THE DIP (ML=6/1), #9 THE MAN CAN (ML=8/1),

MAMMOTH - This horse just hasn't looked sharp lately. No accomplishments for this vulnerable equine in a short distance contest over the last two months tells me that this gelding is in a difficult situation Don't feel this questionable contender will make a winning move in today's event. That last speed figure was somewhat easily forgotten when compared with today's class figure. WATCH THE DIP - Hasn't finished in the money in any short distance events recently. Not probable to see him doing it this time around either. Earned a mediocre speed rating last time around the track in a $5,000 Maiden Claiming race on Jul 22nd. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that rating. THE MAN CAN - I foresee disappointment for this animal in this contest.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #7 MR. MIKE to win if you can get odds of 3/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [7,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Lone Star Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Stakes - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $100000 Class Rating: 73

TEXAS THOROUGHBRED FUTURITY - FOR TEXAS ACCREDITED & TTA SALE GRADUATE, COLTS AND GELDINGS, TWO YEARS OLD THAT WERE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE. $500 TO ENTER. $1000 TO START. THE PURSE TO BE DIVIDED 60% TO THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 10% TO THIRD, 5% TO FOURTH, 3% TO FIFTH AND 2% TO SIXTH. WEIGHTS: 119 LBS. ORDER OF PREFERENCE SHALL BE

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 SUPER STOCK 5/1
# 7 HULEN 2/1
# 9 LUCKY PROMISE 20/1

SUPER STOCK looks to be a solid contender. Should be given a chance here on the basis of the figures in the speed realm alone. This equine enters today's race with second time Lasix. With a decent 79 speed figure last time out, will unquestionably be a factor in this contest. HULEN - Quite good chance today on Lasix. With a nice class figure average of 91, has one of the best class advantages in this group. LUCKY PROMISE - Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this colt. This racer enters today's outing with second time Lasix.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Mountaineer Park - Race #9 - Post: 9:56pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,700 Class Rating: 67

Rating:

#6 TITERE (ML=3/1)


TITERE - The rider and conditioner combination have a beneficial return on investment when they join forces. This gelding finished well ahead of the show horse on July 27th. Those horses tend to run well next time out. This gelding is in nice condition, having run a nice race on July 27th, finishing second.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 EL DUQUE (ML=8/5), #7 TRUENO (ML=5/2),

EL DUQUE - Hasn't been on the Mountaineer Park oval in the last two to three weeks. Cause for some concern. Will probably be far back with too much to do in the lane.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #6 TITERE to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting Assiniboia's Pick 5 Carryover with 1/ST BET Assistance

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August 11, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk
When we last convened in this space July 6 for an Assiniboia Downs pick five carryover payout pool, we were able to utilize the 1/ST INDEX-generated selections, the 1/ST BET database at Betmix and some good, old-fashioned handicapping ingenuity to navigate our way through the darkness. It resulted in an 891-1 return from a $447,000 carryover that lured nearly $2.7 million in new money.

Tuesday's card features a $420,542 carryover on mandatory payout night, and the pick five will be Races 3-7 to conclude the card. First post is 8:35 pm ET and the pick five sequence is slated to kick off in Race 3 at 9:35 pm ET. You can bet the Assiniboia Downs card on the 1/ST BET app

Favorites have won 43% of the 201 races overall this season at Assiniboia Downs. That’s how the 20-cent minimum jackpot pick 5 has carried over 14 days since the July 6 mandatory payout; not because of crazy results, but because of logical results that lessen the chance of a single-ticket winner taking the pool. You don’t need to be solo Tuesday night, just correct on all 5 races. And if things remain logical, you’ll be best-served with a focused ticket that you can play multiple times at the 20-cent minimum vs. spreading thin and just hoping for prices. My $1.20 ticket netted over $1,000 last time, for instance.

Let’s take a look at the Pick 5 races with a handicapper’s eye and the help of the 1/ST BET app’s artificial intelligence selections.

Race 3
Jeremy’s tip: Heavy morning line chalk #2 Stevie Mac (6-5 ML) hails from Shelly Brown barn that’s 15-for-17 in the exacta at the meet with favorites (8 wins). But she loses her rider Antonio Whitehall to #5 Witt’s Gato (5-1 ML), and that’s significant in that he’s the meet’s top pilot at 5-1/2 furlongs (10 wins, 26% win rate). Whitehall and trainer Jerry Gourneau are 4-for-10 with dashers at this distance at the meet, including 2-for-3 with horses 4-1 or more odds. #6 Two Steps Faster (5-2 ML) was beaten favorite last out and trainer Brent Hrymak is 2-for-3 at the meet with horses who return after being the beaten favorite. Stevie Mac’s 12-point spread in the 1/ST INDEX to the second choice is tied for the largest in the sequence.

1/ST BET AI Picks
#2 Stevie Mac (31%W // 51%P // 68%S)
#6 Two Steps Faster (19%W // 40%P // 58%S)
#3 Fat N Bitter (14%W // 24%P // 42%S)

Race 4
Jeremy’s tip: Favorites are 17-for-34 (50%) at the meet in 6-furlong claimers. Morning line choice #1 Witts Data Link (2-1 ML) takes a massive class drop to a more fitting level. But her woeful stakes finish was after a barn change to a 7% outfit. She certainly could win, but doesn’t seem like a rubber stamp. The 1/ST INDEX AI tabs her only fourth choice. #7 Elsie’s Parade (5-1 ML) will take more money than the morning line suggests, and may go favored in my estimation. Jockey Antonio Whitehall is a marvelous 20-for-60 (33%) in 6-furlong sprints at the meet. There’s very little early speed in this race if you can identify the pace player, you might see a wire-to-wire effort. My projection is Whitewall will sense that and urge Elsie’s Parade from the gate as a potential gutsy single.

1/ST BET AI Picks
#7 Elsie’s Parade (26%W // 46%P // 62%S)
#6 Shez Wicked Fast (19%W // 37%P // 53%S)
#3 Peeper (16%W // 34%P // 51%S)

Race 5
Jeremy’s tip: The 7-furlong claiming races at the meet have given favorites a bit of trouble as they’ve underperformed at 4-for-12 (33%). Only 1 winner has been above 9-2 odds, so stick to contenders, but don’t over-focus on the chalk. Last-out winners coming back in 7-furlong claimers have had strong recent success at the meet. They’re 7: 3-1-2 since late July, which bodes well for #1 Sask Lady and #2 Hellocountrybumpkin. Jockeys Antonio Whitehall (6-14) and Richard Mangalee (3-9) have accounted for more than half of the 7-furlong wins at the meet. They pilot #4 Twisted Sensation and #2 Hellocountrybumpikin, respectively. Sask Lady’s 12-point spread in the 1/ST INDEX to the second choice is tied for the largest in the sequence.

1/ST BET AI Picks
#1 Sask Lady (31%W // 49%P // 60%S)
#3 Say It’s Not So (19%W // 40%P // 57%S)
#4 Twisted Sensation (10%W // 25%P // 41%S)

Race 6
Jeremy’s tip: Favorites are 17-for-34 (50%) at the meet in 6-furlong claimers, and public support here comes down to #3 Soul Obsession and #8 You’ll Like It. Leading rider Antonio Whitehall jumps from You’ll Like It to Soul Obsession, and that’s likely significant. Whitehall has gone 7: 4-1-2 when teamed with trainer Jared Brown in recent weeks, including a perfect 4-for-4 at 6 furlongs. I’ll make this one a single. With the sequence’s second-largest field pre-scratches (9), you might get more value with the favorite as less-confident players spread to cover the combinations.

1/ST BET AI Picks
#3 Soul Obsession (25%W // 42%P // 55%S)
#2 Double Time (18%W // 33%P // 47%S)
#6 Warren’s Van Gogh (15%W // 31%P // 45%S)

Race 7
Jeremy’s tip: The largest field pre-scratches in the pick five (10) anchors, and True Kommando’s 4-point spread in the 1/ST INDEX to the second choice is the narrowest in the sequence. This seems an obvious spot where players may spread, so if you can narrow, you’ll be better-positioned. Jockey Nirone Austin has a meet-best 11: 3-1-3 record in the rarely run 1-mile races. He’ll partner with rail-drawn #1 Run Jeanne Run. Of the 15 mile races run at the meet, 12 winners have been 3-1 or less (only 1 above 7-1). Twelve of the 15 winners exited races at 7-1/2 furlongs or longer.

1/ST BET AI Picks
#4 True Kommando (24%W // 45%P // 56%S)
#1 Run Jeanne Run (20%W // 34%P // 48%S)
#3 Captain John (12%W // 24%P // 38%S)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee

Aug 11 '20, 7:10 PM in 2h
MLB | Cubs vs Indians
Play on: Cubs +134 at betonline

10* FREE MLB PICK: Chicago Cubs +134
Rating: 30*
Rot: 959
Time: 7:10 PM EST
Site (Opponent) : Away (Indians)
Starting Pitchers: Lester (CHC), Plutko (CLE)
I will gladly take a flyer on the Cubs as a pretty decent sized dog against the Indians. Chicago is 10-3 and have the best Win % (.769) of any team in baseball. I get the schedule has been favorable and they haven't played since Thursday, I just think they are worth a shot.
Cubs will have veteran Jon Lester on the mound, who has allowed just 1 run on 4 hits in 11 innings over his first 2 starts. When Lester is locked in like this, he can really string quality starts together. He's facing an Indians offense that has been awful to start 2020.
Adam Plutko is starting for Cleveland in place of Mike Clevinger. Plutko has made one start in 2020 and it went well. He allowed 2 runs on 5 hits in 6 innings. However, he was a bit lucky, as both runs allowed came on solo homers. I think we could see the first game this season where the Indians finally allow more than 5 runs in a game. Give me the Cubs +134!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny Walker

Aug 11 '20, 7:10 PM in 2h
MLB | White Sox vs Tigers
Play on: White Sox -111 at 5Dimes

Free Pick on White Sox

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cole Faxon

Aug 11 '20, 7:10 PM in 2h
MLB | Cubs vs Indians
Play on: Indians +102 at sportsbook

FREE PLAY on Indians +102

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones

Aug 11 '20, 7:10 PM in 2h
MLB | Nationals vs Mets
Play on: Nationals -136 at 5Dimes

Jack’s Free Pick Tuesday: Washington Nationals -136
The Washington Nationals exploded for 16 runs against the Mets yesterday. Look for them to stay hot at the plate tonight and put a big number up on Rick Porcello.
Porcello looked washed up last year in Boston when he posted a 5.52 ERA and 1.394 WHIP across 32 starts. He has done little to change my opinion thus far in 2020. Porcello is 1-1 with a 6.92 ERA and 1.769 WHIP in three starts for the Mets this season.
Max Scherzer just keeps proving that he is one of the most dominant starters in baseball year after year. He has posted a 3.29 ERA through three starts in 2020. Scherzer is 10-5 with a 2.71 ERA and 0.904 WHIP in 21 career starts against New York.
The Nationals are 41-19 in their last 60 road games. Washington is 62-28 in its last 90 games as a favorite. New York is 21-50 in its last 71 games as a home underdog. Bet the Nationals Tuesday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Lundin

Aug 11 '20, 7:10 PM in 2h
MLB | White Sox vs Tigers
Play on: Tigers +105 at pinnacle

WHITE SOX @ TIGERS FREE PICK AUGUST 11, 2020
The Detroit Tigers are one of the biggest surprises of the MLB season as they enter Tuesday with a 9-5 record. They rank 5th in baseball for runs scored at 5.34 runs per game and I like the price we get on the Tigers in this matchup with the Chicago White Sox.
White Sox lefty Gio Gonzalez (0-1, 7.71 ERA) could not have had a worse start to the season, allowing 5+ runs in two of this three starts and never making it out of the fourth inning. A date with the Tigers is not what the doctor would have ordered as he is 2-4 with a 6.68 ERA in seven career starts against Detroit.
Tyler Alexander (1-0, 1.17 ERA) will take the ball for the Tigers for his first start of the season after four relief appearances. A well-earned opportunity as he fanned 10 through 3 2/3 innings out of the bullpen against Cincinnati last time out.
The White Sox have lost three straight and five of their last six. Let's roll with the Tigers in this one.
Free pick on Detroit Tigers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rocky Atkinson

Aug 11 '20, 7:30 PM in 3h
MLB | Rays vs Red Sox
Play on: Red Sox +100 at 5Dimes

Rocketman Sports FREE MLB play Tuesday 8-11-20
Tampa Bay @ Boston (7:30 PM EST)
Play On: Boston +100 (Kittredge/Perez) Listed
The Tampa Bay Rays travel to Boston to take on the Red Sox on Tuesday night. Tampa Bay is 9-8 SU overall this year while Boston comes in with a 6-10 SU overall record on the season. Kittridge will be making his first start of the season here. Martin Perez is 2-1 with a 3.45 ERA overall this year. Tampa Bay is 1-5 on the road this year where they are scoring only 3.5 runs per game. Tampa Bay is 1-5 this year against left handed starters scoring only 2.3 runs per game. We'll recommend a small play on Boston tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky