Thursday 8/13/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Golden Gate Fields

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $13000 Class Rating: 97

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE MAY 15 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000, IF FOR $7,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 JOURNEY TO RUN 6/1
# 1 GRAY GEM 2/1
# 4 MAXINAMILLION 3/1

I think JOURNEY TO RUN is a formidable choice. Shows evidence of the look of a lucrative play, averaging a solid 91 Equibase Speed Figure which is one of the strongest in this group. Has to be carefully examined versus this field displaying decent figs lately and an average Equibase Speed Fig of 93 under similar conditions. GRAY GEM - Has very good speed figs and has to be considered for a bet in this race. With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Martinez ought to have this gelding in excellent position to win the outing. MAXINAMILLION - Could best this group based on the speed fig - 87 - of his last race. Looks respectable for the conditions of this race today, showing solid numbers in dirt route races lately.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park

08/13/20, GP, Race 7, 3.06 ET
08/13/20,GP,7,1 1/16M [Turf] 1:38:01 CLAIMING. Purse $25,000 (includes up to $4,000 FHBPA-FOA - FHBPA Florida Owners Awards). FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race At A Mile Or Over On The Turf Since May 13 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $12,500 (Races Where Entered For $10,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances). (If deemed inadvisable to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track at One Mile) (Rail at 108 feet).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	8	Lillie's Heat	9/2	Fuentes M	Rodriguez Roderick R.	TSEL	30.26	1.50/$1
098.3024	7	Sassy Justice	6-1	Arroyo A S	Winebaugh Cheryl	F	30.26	1.50/$1
097.9007	10	La Incondicional	4-1	Camacho S	Crichton Rohan		30.26	1.50/$1
097.6481	5	Hoponthebusgus	7/2	Zayas E J	Maker Michael J.	J	30.26	1.50/$1
097.2373	16	Believe Indeed	3-1	Vasquez M A	Walder Peter R.		30.26	1.50/$1
096.9481	9	Yako	5-1	Vasquez M A	Sano Antonio		30.26	1.50/$1
096.6233	15	Picasso Moon	2-1	Lebron V	Dobles Elizabeth L.		26.95	1.09/$1
095.6875	6	Tropicality	20-1	Prado E S	Ditter Susan		30.26	1.50/$1
095.1104	4	Valley Date	15-1	Lebron V	Crichton Rohan		30.26	1.50/$1
095.0924	3	Kylla Instinct (GB)	20-1	Berrios H I	Matier Sandra		30.26	1.50/$1
094.6436	2	Colonels Daughter	8-1	Reyes L	Avila Juan Carlos		30.26	1.50/$1
094.0740	11	Spicy Nelly	15-1	Rios J M	Quiroz Gerardo		30.26	1.50/$1
093.1982	14	Dixie Princess	30-1	Fuentes M	Richards Renaldo		30.26	1.50/$1
092.9691	13	Ledecky	20-1	Allen. Jr. R D	Quinones Jennifer A.	C	30.26	1.50/$1
092.4503	12	Final Flurry	30-1	Panici L	Condie Kendall	W	30.26	1.50/$1
090.1078	1	Vinyardnina	30-1	Burgos A	Catanese. III Joseph C		30.26	1.50/$1

* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 25.00, ROI 0.74/$1
If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	16	Believe Indeed	3-1	Vasquez M A	Walder Peter R.		33.02	1.17/$1
097.0988	8	Lillie's Heat	9/2	Fuentes M	Rodriguez Roderick R.	TSL	27.07	1.19/$1
096.6970	2	Colonels Daughter	8-1	Reyes L	Avila Juan Carlos		31.35	1.04/$1
096.4208	12	Final Flurry	30-1	Panici L	Condie Kendall	W	27.07	1.19/$1
096.1785	10	La Incondicional	4-1	Camacho S	Crichton Rohan	F	27.07	1.19/$1
095.9545	3	Kylla Instinct (GB)	20-1	Berrios H I	Matier Sandra		27.07	1.19/$1
095.9377	7	Sassy Justice	6-1	Arroyo A S	Winebaugh Cheryl		31.35	1.04/$1
095.3486	14	Dixie Princess	30-1	Fuentes M	Richards Renaldo		27.07	1.19/$1
094.8862	6	Tropicality	20-1	Prado E S	Ditter Susan		31.35	1.04/$1
094.6950	5	Hoponthebusgus	7/2	Zayas E J	Maker Michael J.	J	27.07	1.19/$1
094.6598	15	Picasso Moon	2-1	Lebron V	Dobles Elizabeth L.		27.07	1.19/$1
094.0067	9	Yako	5-1	Vasquez M A	Sano Antonio		33.59	1.15/$1
091.7497	4	Valley Date	15-1	Lebron V	Crichton Rohan	E	31.35	1.04/$1
091.3697	11	Spicy Nelly	15-1	Rios J M	Quiroz Gerardo		31.35	1.04/$1
091.0904	13	Ledecky	20-1	Allen. Jr. R D	Quinones Jennifer A.	C	27.07	1.19/$1
090.0553	1	Vinyardnina	30-1	Burgos A	Catanese. III Joseph C		31.35	1.04/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 23.41, ROI 0.86/$1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Laurel Park

08/13/20, LRL, Race 3, 1.40 ET
08/13/20,LRL,3,1 1/16M [Turf] 1:40:02 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $25,000. (PLUS UP TO 30% MBF) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS IN 2019 - 2020 OR CLAIMING PRICE $16,000. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 125 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race At A Mile Or Over Since June 13 Allowed 3 lbs. Claiming Price $16,000 (Races Where Entered For $7,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances) (Horses which have not run since March 15, 2020, may enter a claiming race and waive the claiming price if the horse is entered for aclaiming price not less than the claiming price of it's last start. This rule is only applicable for a horse's first start back for a period of 90 days, starting with the first day live racing resumes in Maryland). (If deemed inadvisable by management torun this race on the Turf course, it will be run on the main track at One Mile) (Rail at 52 feet).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	6	Stiva	10-1	Perez X	Robb John J.	JTFW	27.04	1.09/$1
098.4982	1	Firth	3-1	Cruz A	Sanchez-Salomon Rodolf	EL	27.04	1.09/$1
098.3826	4	Dancingwithpaynter	7/2	Marquez C	Merryman Michael	SC	27.04	1.09/$1
095.8439	5	I Love You	6-1	Gomez K	Keefe Timothy L.		26.21	1.10/$1
094.7665	2	Boomerang Miss	9/2	Rosado J	Moore Michael M.		27.04	1.09/$1
093.9427	9	Our Star	15-1	Hamilton W	Mancilla Carlos A.		26.15	1.27/$1
092.0767	3	So Innocent	6-1	Toledo J	Frock Charles L.		26.15	1.27/$1
091.2612	7	Brushing	8-1	Ortiz Y O	Dunham Bernard G.		27.06	1.30/$1
088.9752	8	Wilko Lovesong	30-1	Lyapustina T	Corrales Jose		27.06	1.30/$1

* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 32.26, ROI 1.60/$1
If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	6	Stiva	10-1	Perez X	Robb John J.	JTF	24.97	0.80/$1
098.3198	4	Dancingwithpaynter	7/2	Marquez C	Merryman Michael	SEC	24.97	0.80/$1
097.4281	1	Firth	3-1	Cruz A	Sanchez-Salomon Rodolf	L	24.97	0.80/$1
095.1775	5	I Love You	6-1	Gomez K	Keefe Timothy L.	W	24.97	0.80/$1
093.7360	2	Boomerang Miss	9/2	Rosado J	Moore Michael M.		24.97	0.80/$1
092.9609	9	Our Star	15-1	Hamilton W	Mancilla Carlos A.		25.97	1.05/$1
091.4250	3	So Innocent	6-1	Toledo J	Frock Charles L.		24.97	0.80/$1
089.8473	7	Brushing	8-1	Ortiz Y O	Dunham Bernard G.		24.97	0.80/$1
088.3717	8	Wilko Lovesong	30-1	Lyapustina T	Corrales Jose		24.97	0.80/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 32.62, ROI 0.93/$1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Valentino

Early NBA action from the bubble as both Washington and Boston finish up their 8 games before the playoffs get underway on Monday.

Doesn't matter to me who is in the Celtics lineup or for how long, my feeling is the Celtics who are locked into the #3 spot in the East will win this game over the Wizards and they will win it convincingly. They are just the better team no matter who steps foot on the floor.

Boston has now won 4 straight and 5 of 7 overall inside the Orlando bubble and they have been able to best the pointspread in 3 of their last 4 games as well.

Washington clearly did not wish to even make this trip to Florida, as the Wizards have lost all 7 games played in Disney World and that includes 5 losses by 11-points or more. Against the spread the Wizards are just 1-6.

Washington did upset Boston back in the month of January before things shut down because of the coronavirus, but the Celtics had won the previous 4 series meetings straight up while going 3-0-1 against the spread.

Look for the Wizards to complete their winless jaunt to Florida with another lopsided loss this Thursday afternoon.

Boston big.

1* BOSTON

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mitchell Newman

Dallas and Phoenix will play for the second time in Orlando, as the Suns look to go 8-0 in bubble play and then get some help in order to compete in the #8 vs. #9 play-in game that would include them in the postseason.

Rather than play a side in this game, I am looking at the total between the Mavericks and the Suns and while their meeting back on August 2nd landed Under the total, I see this rematch playing Over the total.

Dallas fell to Portland in their last game by a score of 134-131 in a game that soared well Over the posted total of 240 points. That Over for the Mavericks made it 3 straight and 4 of their 6 games played thus far in Orlando having played Over the posted price.

Phoenix has played each of their last 3 games in the bubble Over the posted total and the Over is 5-2 in the Suns 7 games played in the Sunshine State.

Even with the Under the teams played 11 days ago, the series numbers are Over-heavy, as 3 of the last 4 and 5 of the last 8 played between these Western Conference rivals have played Over the total.

Phoenix must win and then get help to be considered for the play-in game. Look for the Suns who have been averaging 121.4 points per game in the bubble to do their very best to keep their playoff hopes alive and that means putting that round-ball in the bucket.

Mavs and Suns Over the total.

3* DALLAS-PHOENIX OVER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen DeAngelo

Easy winner with Wednesday’s complimentary play on the Rays, who dumped the Red Sox and covered the run line (-1½ runs). For Thursday’s MLB freebie, we’ll switch leagues back the Nationals in the matinee finale of their four-game series at the Mets.



Two young pitchers going head-to-head in this one, as Washington’s Austin Voth (0-1, 1.80 ERA) squares off against New York’s David Peterson (2-1, 3.78 ERA). Voth’s numbers (three runs, two earned, on six hits and one walk in two starts totaling 10 innings) are actually superior to Peterson’s (seven runs, 16 hits, six walks in three starts totaling 16 2/3 innings), but the Nats have come up short in both of Voth’s starts while the Mets are 2-1 behind Peterson.



In fact, going back to June of last year, Washington is just 2-8 in Voth’s last 10 starts.



So why back the Nats in this spot? Because Peterson is a southpaw, and Washington is destroying left-handed pitching: Heading into last night’s game, the Nats were batting .339 and averaging nine runs per nine innings vs. lefties (on the flip side, they bat just .221 and average 2.7 runs per nine innings against right-handers). The Mets have posted similar righty-lefty splits, as they’re scoring 5.7 runs per nine innings vs. southpaws but only 2.9 against righties. Well, Voth is a right-hander.



Finally, even though Washington has struggled to get in the win column on days Voth pitches, it certainly hasn’t been the kid’s fault. He’s given up two runs or fewer in seven straight outings, going at least five innings in six of those contests. Voth’s ERA over this seven-start stretch: 1.96!


Only a matter of time before the law of averages kicks in and Voth gets rewarded for his solid pitching, and given the way the Nats tee off against left-handers, I’m thinking that time is now.

2* WASHINGTON

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chris Jordan

My free play for Thursday is the New York Mets against the Washington Nationals, as I think this line is perfect. I've had my eye on this game since I saw the pitching matchup a few days ago, and when the overnight line came out I loved the game. I'm going to list one pitcher in this game, and suggest you follow suit if you're with a book that still allows listing pitchers.

This is a good spot for David Peterson, who comes into this start 2-1 with a 3.78 ERA this season. From what I can tell, New York's rookie southpaw has held his own in the first three starts of his major league career. Now, realistically, he is pitching for a spot in the rotation considering Marcus Stroman just opted out of the season and Michael Wacha continues to nurse an injury.

This is a kid who wasn't even considered as a factor in the rotation, and likely would have been shuffled back and forth from the minors. Now he looks somewhat like the most consistent pitcher when you see how bad guys like Steven Matz (8.20 ERA), Rick Porcello (6.92 ERA), and Wacha (6.43 ERA) have performed.

Peterson may be a long-term project, but tonight he can make a statement against the third-place Nationals.

Lay the small number here.

1* METS (Peterson)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Brayman

My free play is on the Chicago Cubs on the run line, as they should have no trouble dismantling the Milwaukee Brewers.

Since every MLB wager on a run line or total auto-lists pitchers, I want you to be sure you're listing just ONE pitcher specifically on your ticket when making this play, and that is Yu Darvish. If he is not the pitcher of record when making your play, disregard this play. And if Milwaukee starter Brett Anderson is scratched, YOU HAVE TO RE-WAGER the game, and be sure Darvish is listed again. This play will stand no matter who goes for the Brewers as long as Darvish is throwing for Chicago.

Darvish nabbed the win his last time out, on Aug. 5, when he limited the Kansas City Royals to just one run over seven innings of work while striking out four. Now sitting at 2-1 with a 2.12 ERA on the year, he's starting to emerge as the pitcher many believed could be a potential Cy Young candidate during this abbreviated season.

Darvish could be out for revenge in this one, as he'll be looking to avenge his July 25 appearance against Milwaukee. It was his first start of the season, and the Brewers knocked him for three runs on six hits in just four innings.

Darvish is only 1-2 in six career starts against Milwaukee, be he also has an impressive 2.32 ERA against the Brewers.

Take the Cubs and lay the run line.

2* CUBS RUN LINE

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Cappers Access

MLB (Thur) Cubs
MLB (Thur) Padres
NHL (Thur) Stars
NBA (Thur) Suns
NBA (Thur) Pelicans

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Insider Sports Report

NBA Nets over 236

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Profit On Sports

MLB Mets under 9

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The Sports Consensus

MLB Nats +120

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Elite Sports Picks

MLB Wizards +2.5

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Top Rank Sports Picks

MLB Reds -1.5 +110

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Primetime Sports Picks

MLB Dodgers -140