Saturday 8/22/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-21-2020, 09:40 PM

Del Mar Pacific Classic & Late Pick 4 Analysis

August 20, 2020 | By Johnny D

Go ahead. You have permission. Feel free to create a Kentucky Derby Top 10 list. Today. With less than 20 days until the race it’s reasonably clear who’s in and who’s out. Rank them in order of preference. We’ll help: Number 1 is Tiz the Law. There, now you only need to come up with 9 others. It’s always amusing when prognosticators release Kentucky Derby Top 10 lists in January. I get why they do it; because it’s interesting to read an early opinion regarding the abilities of ‘just turned threes.’ But those lists usually have as little to do with what eventually happens on the first Saturday in May in Louisville as a 30-day weather forecast.

Rumor has it that Nostradamus once posted a Kentucky Derby top 10 list in January. He missed tabbing the winner and only 3 of his 10 runners even made the race! Santa Anita’s morning-line maker and long-time blogger Jon White fared just as well this year with his January 15 Top 10 Derby list. And he’s not even an astrologer or a physician. In fact, White will do Nostradamus one better if heavily favored Tiz the Law arrives home first on Derby Day. Plus, White’s forecast had to keep from January until the first Saturday in September instead of a similar day in May!

Three of White’s original top 10 ranked runners are destined to start in the Kentucky Derby (original ranking in parenthesis): Thousand Words (3), Tiz the Law (5) and Authentic (6). Thousand Words required a Lazarus-like return to form in the Shared Belief at Del Mar to make the big dance. Tiz the Law obviously developed into a monster and Authentic’s blue chip stock dipped in the Santa Anita Derby, but rebounded in the Haskell. Rounding out Juan Blanco’s top 10 were: Storm the Court (1), a possible but unlikely Derby starter; Dennis’ Moment (2); Maxfield (4); Independence Hall (7); Anneau d’Or (8); Untitled (9) and Chance It (10).

While you’re in a list-making mood, you might as well layout Saturday’s Del Mar late Pick 4. The main event in the sequence is the Gr. 1 Pacific Classic starring last year’s Kentucky Derby winner (sort of). You recall what happened with Maximum Security in the Louisville stretch? He was accused and ultimately convicted of molesting several foes. And that wasn’t even the most interesting aspect of his short career!

In 2020, soon after Maximum Security cleared customs, following a gutsy victory in the world’s richest race in Saudi Arabia, his then trainer Jason Servis was arrested and placed under federal indictment for a variety of offenses. In Maximum Security’s first start for trainer Bob Baffert, he outlasted Midcourt by a nose in the Gr. 2 San Diego Handicap. Baffert says he’s learned a lot more about the 3-year-old champ since then and has him breathing fire.

I’ll agree until proven otherwise.

Below is a horse-by-horse analysis of the Pacific Classic and a late Pick 4 analysis and suggested play:

1. Midcourt Shirreffs/V. Espinoza 7/2
This 5-yar-old gelded son of Midnight Lute made the lead in the San Diego Handicap and battled #5 Maximum Security to the finish before losing a desperate nose decision. For fans of weight shifts in this one mile and one-quarter journey Midcout will carry 124 pounds Saturday, two more than he did in the mile and one-sixteenth San Diego. #5 Maximum Security also will carry 124 pounds Saturday. He toted 127 in the San Diego. That means there’s a 5-pound weight shift in Maximum Security’s favor. Midcourt has an excellent record at Del Mar with 2 wins—a first-level allowance win and the Gr. 3 Native Diver at one-mile and one-eighth--and one second in 3 starts. This winner of 5 of 12 lifetime can set the early pace or come from behind, so he’s versatile. From the rail, expect jockey Victor Espinoza to let Midcourt roll away from the gate toward the early lead.

2. Higher Power Sadler/Prat 3-1
A well-beaten third in the San Diego Handicap to #5 Maximum Security and #1 Midcourt last out, this 5-year-old horse will need to find a way to turn the tables on the top pair. He also must endure a 5-pound weight shift in #5 Maximum Security’s favor. Early in the San Diego, Higher Power made an aggressive move to take the fight to #1 Midcourt, but didn’t have enough steam to carry it through. Higher Power has 1 win in 2 Del Mar starts, but it was a big one. He’s the defending Pacific Classic champ as he romped in 2019 by more than 5 lengths. Since then he’s been a non-threatening in the money finisher in 4 Grade 1 events—third in the Awesome Again and BC Classic and second in the Gold Cup. His only dud came in the Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream in January. Expect him to be just behind the early pace and to put in an even finish.

3. Mirinaque M. Munoz/TJ Pereira 10-1
An invader from Argentina, this 4-year-old colt has 4 wins and 4 seconds out of 9 starts. He finished a close second in the Gr. 1 Carlos Pellegrini International going one mile and one-half on grass; and that’s a prestigious race. Still, it’s extremely difficult for an import to ship from South America to win a Gr. 1 dirt race first out in the United States and his workouts have been acceptable but not overwhelming. Based on his record, he should have no problem with the distance of the race.

4. Dark Vader Eurton/Rispoli 12-1
Fresh off a sharp one-mile allowance win at Del Mar, this 5-year-old horse steps into Gr. 1 company for the first time. Time before that he finished second to highly regarded McKinzie in the Gr. 2 Triple Bend at seven furlongs. Since his allowance tally he’s been doing really well, evidenced by two bullet five-furlong breezes one week apart at the seaside oval. He’s only has 2 starts in the last year, so he’s fresh as a daisy. He’ll need to run the race of his 13-start career to have a say in the Pacific Classic, but he’s fresh and fit.

5. Maximum Security Baffert/Cedillo Even
This is a great horse in the hands of a great trainer, so we should expect nothing but a great effort from him. Since his Gr. 2 San Diego Handicap nose victory, he’s worked 3 times at Del Mar: 5/8 of a mile in 1:01; 6 furlongs in 1:12 4/5 and 7 furlongs in 1:25 2/5. That final workout was more like a mile than 7 furlongs, so you know he’s plenty fit. You won’t find a more determined horse than Maximum Security. In the stretch of the one mile and one-eighth Saudi Cup at King Abdulaziz Maximum Security was one tired hombre. Still, he battled to the finish, out gaming the extremely talented mare Midnight Bisou. He’s won 9 of 11 races and banked nearly $12 million, despite being disqualified from first and placed 17th in the Kentucky Derby. In 7 of his last 8 races, he’s earned a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure. The only reason it’s not 8-for-8 is that the Saudi Cup wasn’t given a BSF. Maximum Security also has speed, but he can sit off the pace, as he proved again in the San Diego Handicap when he was shuffled back in traffic. Certainly, you don’t need this horseplayer to list Maximum Security’s advantages. However, sometimes it’s nice to revisit them because he really is a special horse.

6. Sharp Samurai Glatt/JJ Hernandez 8-1
This is a Gr. 1 race with a $500k purse and a short field. Why not take a chance with a 6-year-old turf gelding? Sharp Samurai has 8 career wins from 20 starts and 7 of them have come on turf. Most recently, he was a close second to United in the Gr. 2 Eddie Read at one mile and one-eighth on the Del Mar turf. He’s an honest horse, often in the money, but this dirt venture seems a bit out of his lane.

Late Pick 4 Analysis
(Runners graded A, B, C according to preference)

8th Race—Allowance Optional Claiming
This is an interesting one-mile allowance/$62,500 optional claiming race with just 8 runners but a few possible winners. #3 Potantico is fit and fast enough—he was beaten a half-length at this level here last out by Dark Vader, who’s entered in the Pacific Classic. Potantico likes Del Mar--2 wins and a second in 3 tries and he’s 3 for 8 at the distance. The 4-year-old gelding has enough speed to be just off the early pace. He’s the top pick in here. A

#4 Take the One O One is a bit interesting. He could be the only speed, gets come class relief from a pair of Cal-bred stakes, likes Del Mar 2-for-2 and is 1 for 2 at the distance. The majority of his races have been against stakes competition, including the Gr. 1 FrontRunner at 2; the Gr. 2 Del Mar Derby at 3; the Gr. 3 Thunder Road at 5. Toss his grass starts and he’s a solid 4-for-9 on fast dirt and 2-for-3 in fast dirt non-stakes races. B

#5 El Tigre Terrible is a 3-year-old both facing elders and trying a 2-turn dirt race for the first time. He’s trained by Peter Miller and is a sterling 3-for-4 at Del Mar. He may be best as a late-running sprinter, but you probably need to use him defensively. C

#6 Extra Hope enters this off a layoff since November for Hall of Fame trainer Dick Mandella and top jock Flavien Prat. He’s faced graded stakes competition, including Improbable and Mucho Gusto. Last out he was a well-beaten second to Pacific Classic contender Midcourt in the Gr. 3 Native Diver. Despite the lofty connections there are some eyebrow raising stats attached. Mandella is having an unlucky meeting and is just 2-for-29 with 7 seconds. According to Daily Racing Form stats, he’s also just 8% with runners off +180 days. Extra Hope is winless in 4 starts at Del Mar. B

9th Race—Del Mar Oaks
Discussion of this race must begin with #10 Laura’s Light. Trained by Peter Miller, she’s won 5-of-7 races with a win and a second over the Del Mar turf as well as a 1-for-1 record at the distance. She’s got enough speed to be close to the early pace and she comes home with determination. Last out she took the Gr. 2 San Clemente here over #11 Guitty and #4 Warren’s Showtime. The former ran the race of her career and the latter fired one of her usual consistent salvos. Laura’s Light has defeated just about every runner in this race at least once. There are a few new faces in here and that could be where the danger lies. However, the race goes through #10 Laura’s Light, without a doubt. A

#3 Miss Extra is the most interesting of a group of new faces that includes #6 Trickle In, from the east coast, and #8 Neige Blanche from France. #3 Miss Extra was well beaten at 20-1 odds last out in the Group 1 Prix de Diane Longines at Chantilly. That’s usually a very strong race and a 7 � length loss is no disgrace. Before that she won the Group 2 Prix de Sandringham, also at Chantilly. Those fillies should be better than what’s lined up here. Turf master Umberto Rispoli will ride the filly that shows no official US workouts. The gamble here is how #3 Miss Extra will adapt to racing around tight turns on a firm US course where speed is dangerous. She mustn’t lose contact with the leaders. Still, her resume is solid, and she must be respected. B

#1 Carpe Vinum has some attraction because she’s improved or equaled Beyer Speed Figures in each race. That’s often a solid sign that more could be coming. She should enjoy a rail-skimming trip in here and with a bit of improvement could step with these. She’ll be price and it’s asking a bit for her to jump up to Gr. 1 competition off a fist-level allowance win, but circumstances seem to be in her favor. B

#2 California Kook finished second in her last two races and missed by a mere half-length to #1 Carpe Vinum in July. If you like one you have to like the other. Peter Miller saddles but Rispoli moves to #3 Miss Extra.

10th Race—Pacific Classic
See above analysis.

11th Race—Allowance Optional Claiming
A full field of allowance/$40k optional claimers line up to close out Pacific Classic day and the late pick 4. This horseplayer couldn’t see a real standout in here, so you may need to spread the net a bit to find the winner. #5 Salvator Mundi finished second at this level last out and appears to be going well right now. The 4-year-old is trained by Phil D’Amato (22%) and is ridden by Umberto Rispoli (25%). Claimed for $40k at Churchill, this gelding makes his third start for D’Amato and Rispoli. A nice :47 4/5 turf blowout adds to the attraction. A

#8 Southern King already has been successful at this level and will start for the $40k tag. Blinkers were added two back and that seems to have helped, producing an immediate victory and a speed and fade job against better going one mile and three eighths. It took this one a while to break through at this level but he seems on track now. A

#2 Tiberius Mercurius is going well for trainer John Sadler. The 4-year-old finished a close third last out as favorite at this level. It took this one a while to break maiden after racing in New York and Florida, but he’s been solid since Sadler took over training two races back. He’s got enough pace to sit just behind the early leaders and an inside post position ought to have him saving ground under Victor Espinoza. B

#4 Shadow Sphinx scored last out in June off an extended layoff that saw him racing downhill at Santa Anita in his previous two starts in January and December of 2019. Flavien Prat returns in the saddle for trainer Richard Baltas and they combine to score at 24%. A solid series of works, including a bullet five-furlong drill on turf in :59 2/5 August 2, suggest this guy is locked and loaded. B

#7 Three Ay Em takes a dip in class off two Cal-bred stakes races. He was just 2 � lengths behind the winner in the Cal Dreamin and Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith returns in the saddle. Trainer Andrew Lerner is 0-15 at the meeting and the 4-year-old colt is 0-4 at Del Mar, but a repeat of his last fits against these. C

$.50 Pick Four ($40)
Race 8: #3, #4, #5, #6
Race 9: #1, #2, #3, #10
Race 10: #5
Race 11: #2, #4, #5, #7, #8

Race On!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-21-2020, 09:40 PM

Saturday, August 22: Del Mar Pacific Classic Late Pick 5 Preview

August 20, 2020 | By Dustin Fabian

Saturday’s G1 Pacific Classic card at Del Mar is one you can’t afford to miss. The card features five graded stakes races, loaded with names like Maximum Security, United, Midcourt, Higher Power and Combatant.

Couple the great racing with Del Mar’s popular wager menu and big pools and these races and bets are simply too good to pass up.

Here’s my take on the Late Pick 5:

Race 7 (8:00PM ET) // G2 Del Mar Handicap // 1 3/8 Miles (Turf)

What makes this sequence so appealing is the potential single of #1 UNITED in the first leg. This horse loves Del Mar (2-for-3 lifetime) and seemingly drew perfectly for his preferred ‘up close’ running style. He’s going to be the one they’ll need to catch late and while he never makes it easy on his backers (the finishes of his last five races were separated by a combined 1 1/4-lengths), he knows how to find the wire and get his nose down on it. Larger tickets could easily include #7 RED KING, #10 ORIGINAIRE and #5 WARD ‘N JERRY (probably in that order).

Race 8 (8:30PM ET) // Allowance Optional Claiming // 1 Mile (Dirt)

I see the potential for a speed duel in this one between #4 TAKE THE ONE O ONE and #8 KERSHAW, which would open things up for someone from just behind that duo. #6 EXTRA HOPE flirted with the Kentucky Derby Trail in 2019 but was a cut below Improbable, Mucho Gusto, etc. He hasn’t raced since last November, but he has kept good company and might be the one to beat. #5 EL TIGRE TERRIBLE probably doesn’t want to go around two-turns, but he’s 3-for-4 on Del Mar dirt and ran big in a state-bred stakes race on July 31 going 7-furlongs. #1 UNBROKEN STAR and #3 POTANICO have the tactical speed to sit just behind the pacesetters and both should benefit from inside draws.

Race 9 (9:00PM ET) // G1 Del Mar Oaks // 1 1/8 Miles (Turf)

Pace is a bit of a question mark in this race, just as it is in Race 8 so I’m going to hedge a little and attack from multiple angles. #10 LAURA’S LIGHT is probably the ‘best’ horse in the field, but she likes to run up close to the pace and there are a few other speedballs in the group that could push this field pretty quickly early. So alongside her I’m going to use #3 MISS EXTRA, #4 WARREN’S SHOWTIME, #8 NEIGE BLANCHE and #11 GUITTY. They all figure to be running from the back of the pack. Simply put, I see too much pace with #5 AQUA SEAFOAM SHAME, #6 TRICKLE IN, #9 PARKOUR and LAURA’S LIGHT for them to go slowly. And while LAURA’S LIGHT may win the battle of those four, can she hold off the closers to win the war?

Race 10 (9:30PM ET) // G1 Pacific Classic // 1 1/4 Miles (Dirt)

I thought #5 MAXIMUM SECURITY showed plenty of guts when he won the G2 San Diego Handicap by a nose on July 25. That was his first race since the G1 Saudi Cup, his first start for Bob Baffert and his first start with Abel Cedillo in the irons. So hopefully they all learned something. He’s once again drawn well and should be able to stalk the pace just off MIDCOURT. I’m not sure that one wants to go 1 1/4 miles and the only other horse in here that worries me, #2 HIGHER POWER, has yet to show he’s a threat following last year’s Pacific Classic win. So for me it’s all about MAXIMUM SECURITY in his second start off the layoff.

Race 11 (10:00PM ET) // Allowance Optional Claiming // 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)

Despite an overflow field for the nightcap, I’m focusing my bet on the two top jockeys at Del Mar – Flavien Prat and Umberto Rispoli. Prat is on #4 SHADOW SPHINX and Rispoli rides #5 SALVATOR MUNDI. Both horses are incredibly versatile and each is in good form, with ‘SPHINX entering off a win and ‘MUNDI off a runner-up effort. A potential ‘from the clouds’ type would be #7 THREE AY EM.

My Ticket

Race 7 // 1
Race 8 // 1,3,4,5,6
Race 9 // 3,4,8,10,11
Race 10 // 5
Race 11 // 4,5,7

Ticket Cost // $37.50 for 50-cents

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-21-2020, 09:41 PM

Race of the Week: Del Mar Oaks

August 20, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk

GRADE 1 $250,000 DEL MAR OAKS
Saturday, August 22, 2020

The Lead:
Del Mar's biggest day of summer comes Saturday with the Pacific Classic program. The $1 million feature race boasts heavily favored Maximum Security, while the undercard has the Grade 3 Green Flash and Torrey Pines, the Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap as well as the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks. It's the Oaks that could be the best betting stakes on the card with a field of 11. The Race 9 Del Mar Oaks leads directly into the Race 10 Pacific Classic and could be a good way to utilize the daily double wager to Maximum Security.

Field Depth:
Grade 2 winner LAURA'S LIGHT has the marquee victory on her resume among the domestic challengers. Horses like GUITTY and WARREN'S SHOWTIME have knocked on the door behind LAURA'S LIGHT. Internationally, MISS EXTRA is a Group 2 winner in France, while NEIGE BLANCHE won at France's Group 3 level.

Pace:
AQUA SEAFORM SHAME has won back-to-back turf sprints and stretches out as the likely speed over a half-mile farther trip. PARKOUR ran off on the lead in the Honeymoon and has the potential to go ballistic early again. TRICKLE IN has been forwardly placed in all 4 starts, albeit against slower paces than what she'll see Saturday and likely be in chase mode of the aforementioned pair. LAURA'S LIGHT is plenty fast but has been able to harness that with pressing trips in her recent starts, something she'll likely need to do again. This tempo should set up for a late-running finisher, but they'll have to reel in LAURA'S LIGHT, who should get first run on the pacemaker(s).

Our Eyes:
Six of the last 9 winners of the Del Mar Oaks have been ship-in horses from outside California; Cambier Parc last year was the third in 4 years to do so. When you think about races restricted to 3-year-old turf fillies, that's a lot of restrictions to narrow the pool of eligible contenders of high quality. And when you look at the spring-summer of the California circuit, you're really limited in the same horses in a micro-division racing against each other. It makes sense that a new face with talent seeking Grade 1 black-type could find this an appealing late-summer spot annually.

This year, the shippers take the form of 3 barn transfers, 1 from the east/midwest and 2 from France.

TRICKLE IN moves from trainer Mike Stidham to SoCal-based Dan Blacker after a private sale. She's on her third barn in 5 races as she began her career with Jonathan Thomas and was sold after a winning debut. She's won 3 of 4, all wire to wire, and would certainly fit the historical profile of a Del Mar Oaks winner moving west. But the pace scenario looks tough for her with blazers like AQUA SEAFORM SHAME and PARKOUR likely in front of her early the first half-mile. She was pestered by a 35-1 shot all the way in her last win at Delaware Park in which she was a bit tired late, didn't gallop out well and the top 7 were within 3 lengths at the wire.

The French exports MISS EXTRA and NEIGE BLANCHE have come a long way to meet for the first time. MISS EXTRA was on the A-level in her homeland, taking on top-class company at Deauville and Longchamp. She rallied nicely to win the Grade 2 Prix de Sandringham over a mile, and was in the same spot turning for home in the Grade 1 French Oaks but failed to produce any run and tired at 20-1 while going a mile and five-sixteenths. MISS EXTRA should be more suited to this mile and one-eighth run at Del Mar against far easier competition than she met in her last. Note French Oaks heroine Fancy Blue returned July 30 at add the Group 1 Nassau for Aidan O'Brien. MISS EXTRA was moved from her owners to the US care of Richard Mandella by design, a Hall of Fame trainer who won the 2003 Del Mar Oaks with Dessert. The barn also has fleet PARKOUR in the mix and should ensure a hot pace.

NEIGE BLANCHE was not at the class level of MISS EXTRA back in her native France. But she comes into the Del Mar Oaks off a career-best race when upsetting the Group 3 Prix Cleopatre at Lyon in June. She beat only 4 rivals when 10-1 that day, her first try in a group stakes and what was billed as a prep for the French Oaks. But she was subsequently sold and moved to the US under the care of trainer Leonard Powell, who won this race in 2018 with Fatale Bere. NEIGE BLANCHE, sired by Goldikova's full-brother Anodin, has raced at a mile and one-quarter or longer in every start, so she'll cut back in trip some while adding Lasix. She could take well to US racing.

If the Californians are to hold serve in the Del Mar Oaks, LAURA'S LIGHT will be heavily leaned upon to hold her form from wins in the Grade 3 Honeymoon and Grade 2 San Clemente, the latter the local Oaks prep. She has sat perfect trips, clear in second, with making first runs in both scores. Her only misfire came on Polytrack in Turfway's Bourbonette, but there does remain some skepticism here that the Peter Miller trainee is best over this long of a trip. Albeit, taking a stand against her in the same-distanced Honeymoon proved the wrong move. But the European raiders here should provide a much stiffer late threat than what she's seen so far.

Most Certain Exotics Contender: LAURA'S LIGHT hasn't missed a superfecta in her career and should be counted on to hang for a minor share even if she succumbs to the closers. I'd slot her third or fourth.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender: GUITTY, also trained by Leonard Powell and a French export last year at age 2, gives herself a lot of work to do from far off the pace. But she nearly got there in the San Clemente over a mile, and in a race in which she was reluctant to load and very head-strong fighting her rider the first quarter-mile. The wide draw shouldn't hurt her style as she'll be dropping back and making a late run. She's nearly 20-1 or more in all 3 starts this year, so I don't expect the public will over-bet her.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $80 daily double MISS EXTRA with MAXIMUM SECURITY. $10 exacta part-wheel MISS EXTRA, NEIGE BLANCHE over GUITTY ($20).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-21-2020, 09:41 PM

Del Mar: Eddie Olczyk's Pacific Classic Day Spot Plays

August 21, 2020

Maximum Security will be a heavy favorite in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic in Race 10. Finding prices in surrounding races will be the key to playing wagers like daily doubles, pick threes, fours and fives. I’ve got a best bet early on the card Saturday, as well as a couple of spot plays you can connect with the Pacific Classic favorite in multi-race wagers.

Race 3 (6:05PM ET) // G3 Green Flash Handicap // 5 Furlongs (Turf)

#7 Chaos Theory (7/2 morning line)

Strong finisher should get perfect trip with plenty of speed to set the table. This was a great claim in Kentucky for John Sadler and he has exited very live races. I’m hoping for at least 3-1. Chaos Theory is my best bet on the day.

Race 8 (8:36PM ET) // Allowance Optional Claiming // 1 Mile (Dirt)

#1 Unbroken Star (12/1 morning line)

Longshot raced wide throughout July 25 in a race where the pace was modest and the speed controlled things. He should save ground Saturday from the rail and gets more tempo in front of him with Take the One O One and others entered. He won at 16-1 at Santa Anita two starts ago and has a chance to light up the toteboard again.

Race 11 (10:04PM ET) // Allowance Optional Claiming // 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)

#7 Three Ay Em (8/1 morning line)

The final race on the card comes immediately after the Pacific Classic, offering an interesting daily double possibility into this solid price. Three Ay Em had finished in the money in all 6 career races on grass until running into some mild traffic trouble in the California Dreaming Stakes. He leaves the state-bred ranks for this allowance race where he still has eligibility.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-21-2020, 09:41 PM

Del Mar Full-Card Saturday Picks from 1/ST INDEX

August 21, 2020

Saturday’s huge program at Del Mar gets underway at 5 pm ET / 2 pm PT and features an 11-race lineup. The Grade 1 Pacific Classic is one of five stakes races on the card, and will be Race 10. The 1/ST INDEX artificial intelligence selections throughout the program have been provided to give horseplayers a look how the contenders stack up in each race, using the 10 most-important of 53 analytical factors employed over more than 250,000 past races.

Race 1 // maiden, 5-1/2 furlongs
#5 Shanghai Groove (28%W // 50%P // 67%S) 6-1 ML
#4 Avisse (13%W // 23%P // 37%S) 5-1 ML
#1 Frosted Blue (13%W // 34%P // 52%S) 10-1 ML
#3 Lady Mo (12%W // 29%P // 45%S) 20-1 ML

Notable: The algorithms don’t account as much for first-time starters as experienced horses. The public likely will focus on debut runners #2 Princess Noor, #6 Peachtree Road and #7 Flash Magic. #5 Shanghai Groove has a massive edge in percentages vs. the other experienced runners.

Race 2 // optional claiming, 5-1/2 furlongs
#2 Li’l Grazen (32%W // 52%P // 65%S) 8-5 ML
#1 Square Peggy (19%W // 35%P // 55%S) 8-1 ML
#7 Unchain Her Heart (15%W // 31%P // 48%S) 8-1 ML
#3 Noor Khan 14 %W // 29%P // 41%S) 8-1 ML

Notable: #2 Li’l Grazen has the third-highest win percentage of any top selection on the program. As the solid morning line favorite, she may be a ‘single’ in the early pick four and pick five.

Race 3 // Grade 3 Green Flash Handicap, 5 furlongs (turf)
#8 Mikes Tiznow (30%W // 49%P // 66%S) 9-2 ML
#1 Sparky Ville (16%W // 33%P // 52%S) 5-2 ML
#4 Torosay (14%W // 33%P // 44%S) 8-1 ML
#7 Chaos Theory (12%W // 30%P // 45%S) 7-2 ML

Notable: The 14-point spread between the top 2 selections is the second-largest on the program. The algorithm’s fair odds on #8 Mikes Tiznow are between 2-1 and 5-2, and he’s an overlay at 9-2 in the track morning line.

Race 4 // Grade 3 Torrey Pines Stakes, 1 mile
#2 Secret Keeper (35%W // 54%P // 67%S) 7-2 ML
#5 Aurelia Garland (23%W // 50%P // 72%S) 4-1 ML
#3 Harvest Moon (16%W // 41%P // 57%S) 2-1 ML
#6 Provocation (13%W // 22%P // 45%S) 9-2 ML

Notable: #2 Secret Keeper has the highest win-percentage on the entire program at 35%. Her fair odds based on the 1/ST INDEX are around 9-5, considerably lower than the 7-2 morning line, making her a potential overlay at that price.

Race 5 // maiden, 1 mile (turf)
#8 Lane Way (27%W // 48%P // 59%S) 5-2 ML
#10 Absolute Unit (18%W // 30%P // 44%S) 5-1 ML
#12 Divine Armor (8%W // 22%P // 35%S) 5-1 ML
#4 Comradery (7%W // 15%P // 26%S) 15-1 ML

Notable: The 1/ST INDEX selections line up in accordance with the morning line odds in a race that projects to be formful, though #12 Divine Armor’s fair odds are closer to 12-1 than the 5-1 morning line, making him a possible underlay to avoid at shorter odds.

Race 6 // claiming, 6 furlongs
#10 Square Deal (24%W // 40%P // 50%S) 12-1 ML
#9 Taco Waco (16%W // 32%P // 44%S) 10-1 ML
#2 Baby Gronk (10%W // 24%P // 38%S) 7-2 ML
#7 Fratelli (8%W // 15%P // 23%S) 3-1 ML

Notable: The best overlay value on the program could come in this race as 12-1 morning #10 Square Deal is projected between 3-1 and 7-2 odds in the 1/ST INDEX. #9 Taco Deal also could be an overlay at the 10-1 morning line price, projected closer to 5-1 by the 1/ST INDEX.

Race 7 // Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap, 1-1/3 miles (turf)
#1 United (24%W // 45%P // 58%S) 8-5 ML
#3 Combatant (17%W // 24%P // 33%S) 8-1 ML
#6 Proud Pedro (13%W // 21%P // 30%S) 12-1 ML
#2 Another Mystery (9%W // 18%P // 25%S) 20-1 ML

Notable: Favorite #1 United is the 1/ST INDEX top choice and looks solid on paper. But his price may be shorter than fair based on the morning line. #3 Combatant might be the value play at 8-1 morning line as his 1/ST INDEX fair odds are 5-1.

Race 8 // allowance, 1 mile
#5 El Tigre Terrible (26%W // 44%P // 58%S) 4-1 ML
#6 Extra Hope (16%W // 38%P // 48%S) 5-2 ML
#7 Loud Mouth (13%W // 25%P // 43%S) 8-1 ML
#1 Unbroken Star (11%W // 23%P // 37%S) 12-1 ML

Notable: Top choice #5 El Tigre Terrible is a 10-point pick in the percentages and projects just under 3-1 odds by the 1/ST INDEX. He would be a solid play at the 4-1 morning line. #6 Extra Hope is an underlay at 5-2 odds in the morning line, given about a 5-1 chance by the algorithm.

Race 9 // Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks, 1-1/8 miles (turf)
#10 Laura’s Light (24%W // 44%P // 59%S) 3-1 ML
#4 Warren’s Showtime (17%W // 35%P // 52%S) 6-1 ML
#11 Guitty (11%W // 22%P // 34%S) 8-1 ML
#1 Carpe Vinum (10%W // 15%P // 21%S) 15-1 ML

Notable: The French imports #3 Miss Extra and #8 Neige Blanche don’t compute as well as the American runners due to some blind spots in the algorithm (speed, pace figures etc. not available for European races). Both would appear to be contenders along with the logical American favorite #10 Laura’s Light, priced right around 3-1 odds.

Race 10 // Grade 1 Pacific Classic, 1-1/4 miles
#5 Maximum Security (34%W // 62%P // 71%S) 1-1 ML
#2 Higher Power (22%W // 44%P // 69%S) 3-1 ML
#1 Midcourt (17%W // 32%P // 41%S) 7-2 ML
#4 Dark Vader (15%W // 32%P // 55%S) 12-1 ML

Notable: #5 Maximum Security is a solid favorite by 12 percentage points in the 1/ST INDEX, but computes closer to a 9-5 favorite by the algorithm. None of the top 3 choices appear to offer any overlay value based on the morning line, though one of them likely wins. This could be a good race to look at a daily double for value, pairing the winner of Race 10 and Race 11 for that reason.

Race 11 // optional claiming, 1-1/16 miles (turf)
#12 Kneedeepinsnow (18%W // 26%P // 39%S) 12-1 ML
#3 Ostini (17%W // 31%P // 50%S) 15-1 ML
#10 Desmond Doss (14%W // 25%P // 32%S) 8-1 ML
#4 Shadow Sphinx (12%W // 29%P // 39%S) 7-2 ML

Notable: Easily the closest race on the card by the numbers, the top choice is only a single-point best and the top-4 all are within 6 points. Top choice #12 Kneedeepinsnow would be a solid overlay price at the 12-1 morning line, computing in the 1/ST INDEX to around a 9-2 or 5-1 chance. #3 Ostini also could offer overlay value with a similar 5-1 chance by the algorithm and a 15-1 morning line projection.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-22-2020, 07:16 AM

Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 8/22/20

August 22, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Saratoga
Saturday, August 22, 2020
*

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
*
*
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
*
The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

*
Jeff Siegel’s Best Plays for Saturday, August 22, 2020

Del Mar 1st race – Post Time: 2:00 PT
7 – Flash Magic (5/2)

Daughter of Pioneerof the Nile from the stakes winning mare Glinda the Good has done everything like a top prospect in the a.m. for B. Baffert and is plenty fit and ready for a huge try first crack out of the box. She had the good fortune of drawing the cozy outside post, which allows F. Prat to pop and go or stalk and pounce. In a terrific field of maiden juvenile fillies that includes other excellent prospects like Princess Noor and Peachtree Road, we’ll put ‘Magic her the edge on top and hope to get close to her morning line of 5/2.

*
Del Mar 3rd race – Post Time: 3:05 PT
7 – Chaos Theory (7/2)

Makes his first start since being claimed for $62,500 by J. Sadler following an excellent turf sprint win at Churchill Downs in June and has trained like he’s ready to step forward in a big way for his new connections in this year’s edition of the Green Flash H.-G3. Projects to be in the second flight but within striking range at the head of the lane and then have his chance to wear down the leaders close home under outstanding grass rider U. Rispoli. There’s good wagering value here at 7/2 on the morning line if you can get it.

*
Golden Gate Fields 6th race – Post Time: 4:21 PT
6 – Blakeford (5/2)

Has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern and seems certain to improve routing on grass while dropping out of a pair of straight maiden sprints into this much softer $32,000 claimer. The J. Josephson-trained gelding retains hot-riding K. Frey and should have enough tactical speed to gain a favorable early position before kicking home from the top of the lane to the wire. At 5/2 on the morning line he’s a strong win play and rolling exotic single.

*
Del Mar 11th race. Post Time - 7:04 ET
4 – Shadow Sphinx (7/2)

Loved his comeback win at Santa Anita in a fast, highly-rated race and the R. Baltas-trained gelding has looked every bit as good if not better in morning workouts since, giving strong indication that he’s ready for another winning effort. The veteran gelding has excellent tactical speed in a race that projects to have easy early splits, so F. Prat can have him on or near the lead throughout, just where he wants to be. We’ll make him a win play and rolling exotic single at or near his morning line of 7/2.

*
*
Jeff Siegel’s Saratoga Analysis and Wagering Strategies:

RACE 1: Post 1:10 ET. Grade: B
Single: 5-Takeaway

Forecast: In a maiden turf sprint for juveniles with plenty of question marks, we’re not going to get too involved other than to pay close contention to what might be considered the “other” W. Ward entrant, Takeaway, who strikes us as being the better of the two in the field from this stable (After Five is listed as the 2-1 morning line favorite). She’s a filly tackling boys and has been trained to break off behind horses and go by in the lane (she’s looked good doing it), so there’s a chance today’s dash is merely a prep for a stretch out next time. On the other hand, the barn’s success rate - 29% with first-timers - is off-the-charts, so let’s operate under the assumption that at 4-1 on the morning line she’s live and well-meant. A daughter of Super Saver with a long, athletic stride, she’s a clearly a filly with talent, so let’s put her on top in the win pool and in rolling exotic play and just roll with it.
*
*
RACE 2: Post 1:44 ET. Grade: X
Use: 2-Macho Jack; 4-Airtouch

Forecast: Airtouch, a Tapit gelding with plenty of talent but all kinds of issues, has been away since November and returns in this restricted $25,000 claimer while obviously being culled from the stable. His speed figures are far superior than today’s competition but based on his unhealthy pattern he’s no slam dunk to be as good now as he once was. The work tab is okay, nothing fancy, but the barn excels with layoff runners (29%) so if this first-time gelding has at least one good one left he’ll beat this field. But at 2/5 on the morning line he’s a poor gamble. Mucho Jack is the best of the rest and could be dangerous in his first-off-the-claim for A.C. Avila. A sharp maiden $20,000 winner here 16 days ago with a good number for this level, the son of Macho Uno looks like the quickest of the quick and may get brave if he can shake loose early. Tread lightly here.
*
*
RACE 3: Post 2:20 ET. Grade: X
Single: 5-French Reef

Forecast: French Reef was sensational breaking his maiden in his first start since his debut last November over this course and distance last month and did so with a speed figure that makes him tough to beat right back despite the raise to the first-level allowance condition. Two nice workouts since that race (including a bullet :48 2/5 drill on the dirt track training track that was the fastest of 29) indicates the gelded son of New Approach is ready for another top effort. However, at 4/5 on the morning line the C. Brown-trained 4-year-old won’t offer any wagering value other than as a short-price rolling exotic single.
*
*
RACE 4: Post 2:54 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Thebiigfundamental; 3-Super Dude

Forecast: The two main players in this $20,000 claiming router are taking big class drops, which makes trusting either one difficult. Thebigfundamental stretches out after a lethargic sprint comeback that we’re guessing he needed badly, so with less rust to deal with today the T. Pletcher-trained gelding should improve with the stretch out to his preferred trip. Now a 7-year-old and with just nine career starts, the son of Uncle Mo obviously has big issues, so while he may have been way better than these earlier in his career, there’s no guarantee he’s even remotely that good now. From the rail, we expect Johnny V. to try to put him on the lead. Super Dude was dull and fading fifth in a $50,000 seller earlier this month, and while the class drop should help we’re not sure how much the son of First Dude has regressed. First or second in 10 of 22 career starts, the M. Maker-trained gelding has a prior win at Saratoga and retains I. Ortiz, Jr., so it wouldn’t be out of the question to see him regain his form. Tread lightly here.
*
*
RACE 5: Post 3:28 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Sifting Sands; 6-Nautilus; 7-Snow’s Island

Forecast: This is more of an educated guess than anything else but we’re going to try the Fair Hill shipper Snow’s Island on top in this maiden juvenile turf router that on paper looks completely wide open. A homebred son of Animal Kingdom and the first foal from the multi-stakes winning turf mare Tuttipaesi, the G. Motion-trained colt appears to have done plenty of good work at the training center but perhaps more telling is that the barn’s “go-to” rider J. Rosario takes the call. There are no grass works showing on his resume but we suspect that whatever this colt can do on dirt or all weather he’ll do better on turf, so at 8-1 on the morning line we’ll go for a bit of a gamble. Sifting Sands will get plenty of play due to his connections (C. Brown/J. Ortiz) and pedigree but his work tab doesn’t point him out as anything special (he may not have to be against this group. We’ll include the son of Dubawi on our ticket but we’re really not sure what he’s capable of doing. Nautilus has three races under his belt, including a second place finish routing on grass here last month. His numbers are ordinary, so a decent colt can beat him but he may be the most likely in the field to at least hit the board.
*
*
RACE 6: Post 4:04 ET. Grade: C
Use: 5-Love Me Tomorrow; 6-Oak Creek Canyon; 7-Shenandoah River

Forecast: Maiden claiming state-bred fillies and mares sprint six furlongs in the first leg of the Late Pick-5 in a modest race that offers three possibilities, none of whom are particularly trustworthy. Shenandoah River hails from an outfit that does extremely well with first-timers (20% with a substantial flat-bet profit) so the daughter of Mission Impazable must be considered dangerous. The barn’s “go-to” rider E. Cancel takes the call, and with a decent if not spectacular series of drills she looks like well-meant in a soft field. Love Me Tomorrow is the best of the known element but already has had nine chances and her speed figures have stagnated. If the two first-timers aren’t all that much she may be able to outlast this field, but at 9/5 on the morning - and always suspect under pressure in the final furlong - she won’t be offering much wagering value. Oak Creek Canyon, from the L. Rice barn, was a $67,000 yearling purchase but debuts for $25,000, not a sign of confidence. Her Belmont Park training track work tab isn’t the worst, so maybe in a weak field she can make some noise.
*
*
RACE 7: Post 4:40 ET. Grade: B
Use: 7-Lonesome Fugitive; 8-Kingmeister

Forecast: Lonesome Fugitive had a bit of traffic trouble in the upper stretch before finishing fairly well when second in a similar first-level allowance affair here last month but with clear sailing today the C. Brown-trained colt may get up time. Blinkers go on, J. Ortiz stays aboard, and with the hood on the 3-year-old son of Zoffany seems likely to lay closer to the leaders today than he was last time. Kingmeister, third in the same race Lonesome Fugitive exits, ran reasonably well and has a right to improve in his second start off a layoff for Shug (20% with this angle). He should be within range throughout and have every chance. We’ll have tickets including both in our rolling exotics with the preference on top to Lonesome Fugitive.
*
*
RACE 8: Post 5:14 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 2-Growth Engine

Forecast: If there’s ever a race that should set up for a closer, it’s this second-level allowance event over nine furlongs on the main track. Several of these need or prefer the lead, so the fractions should be faster than par and create a race flow that compliments the lightly-raced and improving Growth Engine. A visually pleasing winner last month at Monmouth Park in his first outing in more than a year, the son of Tapit earned a career top speed figure in the process and shows a healthy, steady series of workouts in the interim. Never worse than second in five career starts, the C. Brown-trained gelding is reunited with “win rider” J. Castellano and looks capable of producing the last run. At 5/2 on the morning line he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
*
*
RACE 9: Post 5:46 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Raging Bull; 6-Uni; 7-Valid Point

Forecast: Top to bottom a chance in this year’s edition of the Fourstardave H.-G1 over a mile on the inner turf course. We’ll just go with the three best of the four C. Brown entrants (you can toss in Without Parole, too, if you like) and hope for good racing luck with at least one of them. Raging Bull has a good inside draw, excellent form over the local lawn and numbers that are more than good enough to win. The drawback is that he’s trip and pace dependent so he’ll need good-to-fast early fractions and room to rally from the quarter pole home. Uni, the Breeders’ Cup Mile-G1 winner last year, was far below that form in her seasonable debut in late June when finishing a non-threatening third in the Just a Game S.-G1 but had a right to be rusty and certainly can step forward today. However, it may be significant that her regular jockey, J. Rosario, opts for Raging Bull. Valid Point (12-1) offers long shot value in a race that might set up for his pace-stalking style. The Scat Daddy colt had a brutal trip when lacking room in the his 4-year-old bow in the Poker S.-G3 last month in a race that we’ll toss out, and at this flat mile trip – his favorite – the lightly-raced 4-year-old could inherit an ideal trip in a race that might have soft splits early. He seems to be working well, so we’re expecting to see his best shot.
*
*
RACE 10: Post 6:16 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Battalion; 9-Takeez

Forecast: Rakeez earned a good figure when graduating in his second career start at Gulfstream Park in January but obviously an issue surfaced and he had to be stopped on. The son of Kitten’s Joy returns in a restricted (nw-2) $40,000 claimer rather than in a first-level allowance race, so the Shadwell Stable homebred obviously is for sale. On his best day the C. Brown-trained colt would have no trouble with this group but given the question of health and condition taking a short price on the 8/5 morning line favorite might not constitute sound wagering strategy. Battalio is fairly competitive on speed figures and was a reasonable runner-up in a $50,000 starter’s allowance event over this course and distance last month. The steadily improving son of Tiznow probably can’t beat Rakeez if that one produces his best stuff but if not this W. Mott-trained colt is the logical alternative.
*
*

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-22-2020, 07:17 AM

Al Cimaglia: Scioto Downs Pick 5 Analysis

August 22, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Tonight, Scioto Downs has a 15-race card ready to roll. My focus will be on the 0.50 Pick 5 which begins in Race 5. The sequence has a low 14% takeout.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 5

3-Havefaithinme N (7/2)-Usually shows up at this class and hits the board with a good trip. Closed into a brisk pace in last start from the 8-hole. Should be in the hunt from start to finish with this post draw.
7-Escapetothebeach (4-1)-Shipped in from the Big M and drew off >5 lengths and was bet like the race was already run. Faces better here but was facing tough foes out East and does fit at a square price.

Race 6

3-Gotti (9/2)-Recent $6k claimer won a $10k claimer last week and best to respect at the same tag tonight. Winner in 5 of 15 starts this year has also won 5 of 8 at ScD.
5-J C Onthebeach (2-1)-Morgan claimed this 10-year-old and then lost him the next start and then claimed him back again. Not a fan of the short morning line and has not won here in 25 starts but will use versus a suspect group.

Race 7

1-Black Chevron N (5-1)-After winning 3 straight stepped up to face Open company without success. Now drops to a more comfortable level. Should be forwardly placed and could start a new winning streak.
3-Lettucerockthem A (7-1)-Another who drops and should like the company. Needs a top effort to win but gets a good post. Could get sucked around and show up late.
5-World Of Secrets (9/2)-Winner of 2 straight has taken a pictures at Nfld and ScD as Noble takes a spin. Deserves respect but only shows 1 victory in 16 starts here. Makes 3rd start for Rhodes so will string along.

Race 8

6-Franzo (5/2)-Makes 1st start for Short off a claim and barn has been doing well. 0-11 this year but has 8 wins in 30 starts, and maybe winner of >$90k in 2019 wakes up in this spot.
7-Fool Me Once (7-1)-Winner at this class on 8/8 and then drew the 9-hole and was claimed. Has good gate speed and will look for an aggressive steer in 1st start for the Morgan barn.
9-Outrajus Blue Chip (7/2)-Beaten favorite can be a slow starter so will need to find a live cover flow. Price will be better tonight and Miller might be able to get him off the gate and work a good trip.

Race 9

1-Excavator (6-1)-Broke in 1st start for the Rucker barn and Galliers takes the lines tonight. Likes to race on the engine and should be there or in the 2 hole. Taking a swing for a fair price with a horse with speed who is 5 of 17 at ScD.
8-Diesel Accelerator (7/2)-Makes 4th start for Burke and is winless in that barn but has hit the board in each start. Sutton will probably blast out and will end up on top or close to it. Should be in play with a good steer.

0.50 Pick 5

3,7/3,5/1,3,5/6,7,9/1,8
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-22-2020, 07:19 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Saratoga - Race #1

#8 Honorable	Pletcher firster drew a nice outside attack post for his debut, is out of a dam that is a half-sister to the precocious GIII winner Comical, and should offer value; thinking he's live.
#3 After Five	The first of two Ward firsters goes for a potent 29% debut barn, has several encouraging works, and lured Irad, though the price figures on the underlaid side; still, plenty scary.
#5 Taekaway	Ward's other is out of a dam who is half to GII winner Exhi, who earned over 800k but did it going long, so this may be a tightener for a route next time; tabbing for down the road.
Race Summary	You should get fair value on the 8, as you know they'll bet the two Ward runners hard, but there's reason to think the pick can run, and the works are solid too, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially to kick off the early Pk5 as well, since a win would add plenty of value to the sequence right off the bat.

Saratoga - Race #6

#7 Shenandoah River	Firster goes for Breem who is 20% on debut, has Cancel, who is 24% for the barn, and meets a field of experienced foes who aren't much, to say the least; look out.
#4 Central Exit	Pace presser drops in class and makes her first start for Jeremiah (a 15% angle), and the 4th for 40k last time was solid, but there's no value here either; second-best.
#5 Love Me Tomorrow	Logical contender is now 0-9-3-3 after blowing a late lead last time, so her will to win can be questioned, not to mention her form seems stuck in neutral; underneath only.
Race Summary	Tab the tote on the 7, as she should be live and taking money if ready, and if that's the case you can play her to win and place, and especially to kick off the late Pk5 as well, as Breen knows how to pop at first-asking, and this is the type of group that is very vulnerable to a well-meant firster.

Saratoga - Race #9

#5 Halladay	Pletcher charge may not be this kind, as he's yet to win a graded stakes and now meets some toughies, but the race flow is to his liking, as he could be loose, or stalking last year's winner next door Got Stormy, who seems well below her 2019 form, so, there's a chance this dude tries to blow this open off the far turn and holds his breath to the line; upset special.
#1 Raging Bull	The first of four for Brown is a GI winner, drew perfectly here, and will be rolling through the lane, but this is the inner turf, and the tight turns make his running style a bit dicey, and note his two local wins came over the Mellon, which is a little kinder to those with a big late kick, not to mention the pick has a huge tactical edge on him; may run out of room in the lane.
#6 Uni	BC Mile winner is 7-for-9 at this trip and figures a much tighter mare than the one who got no help when 3rd in her return in the GIII at Bel behind stablemate Newspaperofrecord, who was about 1-100 after the half-mile was posted, but the pace won't be much hotter here, and while she should improve, she's another who is up against it in terms of the flow; not sold on.
Race Summary	The price will be right on the 5, and so will the splits, and both need to be since he's not in the same league as the two favorites for Brown, but pace makes the race comes to mind here, and it's elevated a lot lesser than this dude to the winner's circle before, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since he seemingly gets all the best of it here, and should play higher than his ML, which means a win would add plenty of value to both sequences.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-22-2020, 07:20 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #3

#3 Lookin for Candy	Has some forward ability, and she stayed on much better last time out. She may not have flashed her best stuff yet, and another small move forward would keep her in the hunt here at a price.
#2 Gold Cadillac	Doesn't have a ton of excuses left as she heads into her 12th career start, but she does own several running lines that would probably handle these. Wouldn't argue too hard with anyone landing here, but not on top for me.
#12 Dixie's Fascinator	Toss the dirt try last out and the form stacks up pretty well. She draws nicely to be able to find a position into the turn, and she can be one of the ones running on late.
Race Summary	Lookin for Candy has been slowly moving forward, and she could threaten these if she continues that forward momentum into this fourth career start.

Laurel Park - Race #8

#2 A Girl Named Jac	Showed a little talent in the CD maiden win last fall, and there is plenty of pedigree here for her to be a success on the grass with Point of Entry on top of a War Front mare. She has flashed pace once and finished once in her two career starts, so there is some versatility in style, too. Lots to like.
#9 Coconut Cake	Really good effort to score last time out, and though she's another stepping up to try winners, she is not exposed after just two starts and may have more in the tank.
#3 Break Curfew	Has run a couple of pretty good turf sprints, but I wouldn't be too excited to sign up for the 5-2 ML price in a field that feels fairly competitive as she tries this level for the ninth consecutive time.
Race Summary	A Girl Named Jac has the pedigree to be a better turf horse, and she showed up with a couple of pretty good dirt tries to open her career. She seems capable with a forward move on the surface change.

Laurel Park - Race #9

#5 Dundalk	Long layoff is an issue, but the running lines fit very well here if he's able to fire a good one of the bench.
#10 Lucky Ramsey	Scored at this level when off the turf last out, and the form on the grass stacks up just as nicely. He's a danger with a tracking trip looming.
#7 Atreyu	He has rattled off five in a row against some softer groups, but the form is solid enough to give him a look for the gimmicks on the rise.
Race Summary	Dundalk will need to come back running off a long break, but his back form fits, and some of it came against better groups than he's going to find today.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-22-2020, 07:21 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Pocono Downs - Race #1

#2 ROYAL HEART	Projects ideal trip as he looks to get back on the winning track.
#5 BRANDON HANOVER	Won with Bartlett two back, gets plenty of pace to run at.
#4 LACHIE MAGUIRE N	Has speed, 32 wins and is a tight fit at this level.
Race Summary	Royal Heart rallied into a fast pace from post 8 but came up short in his three-peat attempt. He draws favorably in a deep and speed-laden field, so play 2-4 and 2-5 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #3

#1 EAST END	Rallied from post 9, strikes from up close in here, offers good value.
#7 ROCKIN IN HEAVEN	Brushed to lead through :56 middle half before post 10 fave arrived.
#3 HP NAPOLEON	Made moves in pair of 1:49 and change races for top tandem.
Race Summary	East End led at the stretch call two starts ago at this level, then made up 14 lengths from post 9 in the faster division of a split race. He can stalk and pounce from the rail and draw closer to $500,000 in earnings.

Northfield Park - Race #3

#1 HEISENBERG Z TAM	Gets class relief, favorable post switch and driver upgrade.
#3 SWIFT SHARK	Top money-earner in field this year is proven at this level, save for July misstep.
#4 CROSS COUNTRY	In the hunt but failed at short prices in his last three starts.
Race Summary	Heisenberg Z Tam gets class relief after he made up ground on the winning favorite at Scioto Downs last week. He benefitted when the 4-1 third choice broke stride, but he moves from post 8 to the rail and is re-united with Page tonight.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-22-2020, 07:22 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #3

#3 Dexter Road	Was second in his last two, both at this level, and will get a favorable pace in front of her. Can make a run late in the game.
#1 J S Bach	Takes a suspicious drop in class after being claimed for $16,000, and he's now in for half of that.
#5 First and Three	Like the second choice is a class dropper and will get plenty of support; could be a serious part of the pace.
Race Summary	Dexter Road is best from just off the pace and will have a good chance to uncork a good rally against some class droppers.

Gulfstream Park - Race #9

#5 Genghis	Gave way after putting down or forcing fast fractions in his last three races, takes a class drop and can have a much-improved effort at this level.
#7 Positive Phil	Has been close in four of his last five and was up in time two races back; has a good chance vs. these.
#8 Coltrane	Has been on the front end in his last five races and lasted for the win in one of those; comes in from Tampa, where he took on some capable runners at a higher level.
Race Summary	Genghis was much used early and has a good chance to get a stalking trip today; can improve with the class drop and a more relaxed trip early.

Gulfstream Park - Race #10

#5 Hard Lighting	Broke his maiden in May and most recently tried the G2 Blue Grass Stakes, where he was outrun. Gets back to a much more comfortable setting and can get a good stalking journey. One to hold off.
#3 Tatweej	Battled early, put away his rivals and drew off for a maiden win; strong chance if he runs back to that one.
#4 Tap the Mojo	Pressed early and settled for third vs. similar last time; solid chance today.
Race Summary	Hard Lighting's connection had enough faith in him to enter in the Blue Grass Stakes, where he couldn't keep up with the likes of Art Collector and Swiss Skydiver. Much different ball game today.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-22-2020, 07:49 AM

LA Lakers vs Portland Trail Blazers 8/22/20 - NBA

The Los Angeles Lakers look to take a 2-1 lead in their NBA Western Conference quarterfinals best-of-seven series on Saturday when playing Game 3 against the Portland Trail Blazers. Los Angeles evened the series at 1-1 with a 111-88 victory over the Trail Blazers on Thursday in Game 2. Anthony Davis scored 31 points and grabbed 11 rebounds to lead the Lakers to the victory.

Anthony Davis is leading Los Angeles in scoring during the postseason with an average of 29.5 points per game. LeBron James is the second-leading scorer, leading rebounder and leader in assists with averages of 16.5 points, 11.5 rebounds and 11.5 assists per game. The Lakers have four players averaging double-figures in scoring.

The Portland Trail Blazers not only lost Game 2 of the series to Los Angeles but may have lost high scorer Damian Lillard who dislocated the index finger on his left hand. X-rays came back negative for the guard, but his status for Saturday's game is questionable. Lillard scored just 18 points in the loss and will be a game-time decision on Saturday.

Damian Lillard is leading Portland in scoring with an average of 26.0 points per game. Jusuf Nurkic is the leading rebounder with an average of 11.5 per game and Carmelo Anthony is the leader in assists with an average of 3.0 per game. CJ McCollum is the second leading scorer with an average of 17.0 points per game and one of just four players for Portland averaging double figures in scoring.

Recent Betting Trends

Los Angeles 1-6 ATS in its last 7
The UNDER has cashed in 9 of the Lakers last 13
Portland is 5-1 SU in its last 6
The OVER has cashed in 6 of the Trail Blazers last 8

Free NBA Pick: Los Angeles Lakers -7

In all likelihood, Damian Lillard will play for the Portland Trail Blazers despite a dislocated finger, but even though the finger is on his non-shooting hand, the high scorer for Portland will be negatively affected. Los Angeles looked much more effective in its Game 2 victory even though LeBron James scored just 10 points. The Lakers have covered the number in six of the last seven versus Portland. Final Score Prediction, Los Angeles Lakers win and cover ATS 118-106.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-22-2020, 07:49 AM

Houston Rockets vs OKC Thunder 8/22/20 - NBA

On Saturday, the Houston Rockets look to take a commanding lead in their NBA Western Conference quarterfinals best of seven series with a victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder. Houston leads the series 2-0 following a 111-98 victory in Game 2 on Thursday. James Harden led the Rockets with 21 points and handed out a team-high nine assists. Houston won despite playing a second consecutive game without Russell Westbrook.

James Harden is leading Houston in scoring, rebounding and assists during the postseason. Harden is averaging 29.0 points, 8.0 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game. The second leading scorer for Houston is Jeff Green with an average of 18.5 points per game. Houston has six players averaging double-figures in scoring.

Oklahoma City is facing a must win situation trailing 2-0 heading into Saturday's Game 3. In the loss on Thursday, Oklahoma City was led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with 31 points and Danilo Gallinari chipped in with 17 points. Oklahoma City held a six-point lead at halftime, but scored just 39 points in the second half to lose by 13.

Danilo Gallinari is leading Oklahoma City in scoring with an average of 23.0 points per game, while Steven Adams is the leading rebounder with an average of 11.5 per game and Chris Paul is the leader in assists with an average of 5.5 per game. Oklahoma City has four players averaging double-figures in scoring.

Recent Betting Trends

Houston is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 versus Oklahoma City
The UNDER has cashed in 4 of the Rockets last 5
Oklahoma City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5
The OVER has cashed in 4 of the Thunder’s last 6

Free NBA Pick: Houston Rockets -3

Houston appears to have Oklahoma City's number after defeating the Thunder in each of the first two games of the series. Oklahoma City is 1-4 straight up and against the number in its most recent five games. In addition, the Thunder have failed to cover the number in each of their last five versus an opponent from the Western Conference. Final Score Prediction, Houston Rockets win and cover ATS 110-104.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-22-2020, 07:50 AM

Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat 8/22/20 - NBA

The Indiana Pacers face an uphill battle when playing the Miami Heat in Game 3 of their NBA best of seven Eastern Conference quarterfinals series on Saturday. Indiana lost to Miami 109-100 in Game 2 of the series and now trails 2-0. In the loss, Victor Oladipo was the leading scorer for Indiana with 22 points while Malcolm Brogdon and Myles Turner each scored 17.

During the postseason, Malcolm Brogdon is the leading scorer and leader in assists for Indiana with averages of 19.5 points and 9.5 assists per game. Myles Turner is the leading rebounder for Indiana with an average of 8.5 per game. TJ Warren is the second-leading scorer with an average of 18.0 points a game and one of five players for Indiana averaging double figures in scoring.

Miami looks to take a 3-0 lead in the series with a victory in Game 3. The Heat in their victory on Thursday, were led by Duncan Robinson who scored 24 points, while Goran Dragic added 20 points and Jimmy Butler chipped in with 18 points while handing out six assists. Miami can put Indiana's collective backs against the wall with a victory on Saturday.

Jimmy Butler is leading Miami in scoring during the postseason with an average of 23.0 points per game, while Bam Adebayo is the leading rebounder what's an average of 7.5 per game and Goran Dragic is the leader in assists with an average of 5.5 per game. Five players for Miami are averaging double-figures in scoring.

Recent Betting Trends

Indiana is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 versus Miami
The UNDER has cashed in each of the Pacers last 5
Miami is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 on Saturday
The UNDER has cashed in 4 of the Heat’s last 6

Free NBA Pick: Indiana Pacers +5.5

Although Indiana is down 2-0 in the series, the Pacers will narrow that lead with a victory on Saturday. Indiana has won 12 of its last 18 straight up and has covered the number in five of the last six versus Miami when not playing at home and in this case on a neutral court. Final Score Prediction, Indiana Pacers win and cover ATS 111-105.