Monday 8/24/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MON, AUG 24TH - 8:15PM ET:
KANSAS CITY ROYALS @ ST. LOUIS CARDINALS PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS

KC Royals Win +1.5 Run Line
-125

Under 8.0 Game Totals
-110

Run Line Pick
Two in-state rivals will kick off a three-game series when they square off on Monday night. The Cardinals will turn to Jack Flaherty, while the Royals will send Brad Keller to the mound. Starting with Flaherty, he is 1-0 on the season with an ERA of 3.21. He actually has had very limited time on the mound this year, just 8.2 innings over two starts. His last start against the Cubs was limited to just 41 pitches, when he allowed one run over 1.2 innings. Flaherty has seen the Royals just once in his career, when he allowed two runs over 7.0 innings. Though this start came all the way back in 2018.

The Royals may be six games under .500, but they seem to have found something special with Keller. As it stands, Keller might be Kansas City’s ‘ace’ so to speak–posting a record of 3-0 so far with an ERA of 0.00. His last start came against the Cincinnati Reds, in which he pitched 6.2 innings of shutout baseball. Flaherty is still going to be on a pitch count here, so we may not see a lot of him. That likely leaves the bulk of the work to the bullpen. While the Cardinals bullpen has been pretty solid, I do not generally like laying this high of pric so I am going to back the Royals to keep this game close behind the arm of Keller and will take Kansas City on the run line.


Over Under Pick
The total is a little more up in the air as it really depends how long Flaherty can last in this game. Way back on July 19, he pitched 7.0 innings of two-run baseball against the Pirates. We know he is on a pitch count so going 7.0 innings again is unlikely, but if he somehow can make it through five innings I think he could keep the Royals in check. It is not like the Royals have that great of an offense anyway, averaging just 3.4 runs over their last five games. The under is 4-0-1 in these games. The Cardinals are also having offensive struggles, averaging 3.6 runs over their last five games. The under is 4-1 for St. Louis during this stretch. The total is still set pretty low, so it would be a lean at best but nonetheless a lean towards the under.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MON, AUG 24TH - 9:10PM ET:
LOS ANGELES ANGELS @ HOUSTON ASTROS PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS

HOU Astros Win Money Line
-155

Over 9.5 Game Totals
-110

Money Line Pick
There was more disappointment for the Angels over the weekend, including an extra-inning loss to Oakland on Sunday. They have now won only two of their last 10 and each of those were by a single run. Despite all their investments the Angels just don’t have it this season. Patrick Sandoval hardly appears to be the kind of arm that is going to get them back on track. The Angels have lost this last three starts and unless the offense clicks for this one it is likely to be four straight. The hitters have to hit eventually, or so you would think. After a nice winning streak Houston was humbled over the weekend, getting swept by San Diego. The offense had trouble on the road, scoring no more than three runs in any game in the series. They also lost third baseman Alex Bregman for a few weeks with a hamstring injury and Yordan Alvarez needs surgery and will miss the rest of the season. That puts a lot of pressure on pitchers like Framber Valdez. The lefty has been really good though, giving up no more than one earned run in four straight starts. I will ride that one here. Take Houston.


Over Under Pick
I keep getting burned assuming that the Angels are going to come somewhere near their offensive potential. Now the Astros have had their potential reduced so the under looks solid here. However, I am not a fan of Sandoval and the Astros just have so much punch. If Valdez is just a little less precise and gives up two runs then we will not have to sweat the over as much. Take the over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MON, AUG 24TH - 9:30PM ET:
COLORADO ROCKIES @ ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS

ARI Diamondbacks Win Money Line
-160

Over 9.5 Game Totals
+100

Money Line Pick
The Rockies are in a big time funk having lost seven in a row. It has not helped facing the Astros and Dodgers in back-to-back series but they were teetering even before then. The struggles have been throughout the squad, in five of the seven games they failed to score even four runs and in three of the losses they gave up double-digits to their opponent. They need to rest things quickly before this season is lost. That is a lot of pressure on rookie Ryan Castellani, who has been only OK this season. Arizona begins this series in last place a half-game behind Colorado but its narrative has been much different. Not much was expected so basically the Diamondbacks have been playing spoiler and doing an alright job of it. They get to start this series with their best pitcher on the hill in Merril Kelly. That status was not expected but other than his last start when he got hit hard by Oakland he has been really strong this season. Take Arizona.


Over Under Pick
Usually when these teams meet there are a lot of runs scored. They have had one series this season, at Coors Field, and no game finished with less than 15 runs. Shifting venue to Chase Field makes a little bit of a difference but I am still expecting some fireworks between these two teams. Castellani is certainly no sure thing and even though Kelly has good numbers I can see him giving up three or four and the bullpen doing the same win or lose. I like the bats to rule the day here. Take the over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MON, AUG 24TH - 7:00PM ET:
NEW YORK ISLANDERS @ PHILADELPHIA FLYERS PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS

NY Islanders Win Money Line
-105

Under 5.0 Game Totals
-115

Money Line Pick
A lot of things seem to be going right for the top-seeded Flyers. They had a solid performance against the Canadiens during the first round, with youngsters like goalie Carter Hart and defensemen Ivan Provorov and Phil Myers playing significant roles. Best of all, Philadelphia is set to receive some reinforcement to start this series, as defenseman Matt Niskanen will return from suspension. However, while Philadelphia was clearly the superior team throughout the regular season, there are plenty of reasons to think that the Islanders will end up stealing the first game of this series.

For starters, we saw the Flyers struggle at times against a tough Montreal defense–and they’ll have a tougher test against an Islanders squad that has allowed the second-fewest shots per game throughout the postseason. Of course, it’s also worth noting that the Islanders have dominated this matchup in recent years, going 7-3-0 over their last 10 outings. Add in the fact that these teams have relatively even road records (relevant for neutral ice purposes), and we see few reasons to side with the Flyers in this one. We’re taking Islanders money line.


Over Under Pick
These two teams obviously have plenty of offensive firepower, but the two squads should struggle to find the back of the net during this series. Both teams limited opponents to only around 2.7 goals per game during the season, and the Islanders managed to step it up a notch against a talented Capitals offense in round one (Washington averaged only 1.6 goals per game). While Montreal had a bit more luck against the Flyers, they were still limited to only 2.16 goals per game. In other words, defense should reign in this series.

Plus, there are some trends to suggest that this will continue in Game 1 on Monday. The total has gone under in nine of Philadelphia’s last 12 games, and the total went under more often than not for the Islanders throughout the season. While the total has generally gone over when these two teams meet up, the playoffs are a whole different beast. We’re taking the under.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MON, AUG 24TH - 9:45PM ET:
DALLAS STARS @ COLORADO AVALANCHE PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS

DAL Stars Win Money Line
+140

Over 5.5 Game Totals
-110

Money Line Pick
What an exciting Game 1 we had as the Dallas Stars came out firing, taking a 1-0 series lead over the Colorado Avalanche by winning 5-3. Most people may have not expected this given how well Colorado played against the Arizona Coyotes in round one. Then again, Dallas is a huge step up in competition compared to Arizona–which looked lost throughout that entire series. The biggest thing for the Stars was they were able to start fast. Three goals in the first period put them in the driver’s seat for the rest of the game. They also had a very balanced attack, seeing that four different players scored.

As for Avalanche, they need to figure out their goalie situation. Pavel Francouz looked so bad in the first period that Colorado subbed him out after just 20 minutes. Philipp Grubauer came in and played better, allowing just two goals, but clearly the damage had already been done. Note that Grubauer has now been ruled out for game two due to an injury, so they will likely have to go back to Francouz. The Avalanche are also going to need more production from someone other than Nathan MacKinnon. He had two goals and one assist in the first game, but clearly they need some more help. Colorado is no doubt an explosive team, however until it proves it can get back to playing elite defense, I am not sure I want to back this team at a steep price. The Stars have now won four of their last five head-to-head meetings with the Avalanche, so it would be a lean towards Dallas to once again take it to the Avalanche.


Over Under Pick
The total looks like the much better play as we saw a combined eight goals in Game 1. For two defensive minded teams, this was certainly surprising, but clearly the offenses are on another level at the moment. The Avalanche have scored an average of 3.8 goals per game in the bubble and the Stars have scored 3.0 goals in their games post restart. It feels like there is an uncertainty around the Avalanche and their goalies, as well, so I do not see them all of a sudden shutting down a team that has scored 19 goals over their last three games. Just like in the opener, we are going with the over and will look for another wide open game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MON, AUG 24TH - 7:00PM ET:
COLUMBUS CREW SC @ NEW YORK CITY FC PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS (SOCCER)

Columbus Win Money Line
+180

The Columbus Crew are the hottest team in Major League Soccer. In six regular season games, they’ve only allowed one goal (no other team has given up fewer than three). After a convincing 3-0 win at home against Chicago, the Crew travel to New York to face an NYCFC side that’s only scored twice in its six games towards the table. New York managed to sneak into the knockout stage of the MLS is Back Tournament as the last team after LA Galaxy scored a 90th minute penalty to eliminate Houston in the final group stage game. They used that momentum to shock a strong Toronto squad before losing to Portland in the quarterfinals, but a disappointing loss to their cross-Hudson rival Red Bulls to kick off their post-tournament schedule doesn’t bode well for their chances. Soccer oddsmakers tend to favor the home team, which generally makes sense, but in our current world of fanless stadiums, the team that’s hosting doesn’t make nearly as much of a difference as it used to. Columbus should be well-rested and confident as they travel to New York, and they are an absolute steal at +180. Go with the Crew.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MILWAUKEE @ ORLANDO

MILWAUKEE
Milwaukee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Orlando
Milwaukee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Orlando

ORLANDO
The total has gone OVER in 19 of Orlando's last 23 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Orlando's last 10 games at home

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HOUSTON @ OKLAHOMA CITY

HOUSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Houston's last 19 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 10 games

OKLAHOMA CITY
Oklahoma City is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Houston
Oklahoma City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Houston

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INDIANA @ MIAMI

INDIANA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games on the road

MIAMI
Miami is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Indiana
Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Indiana

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LA LAKERS @ PORTLAND

LA LAKERS
LA Lakers is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Portland
LA Lakers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Portland

PORTLAND
Portland is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games when playing LA Lakers
Portland is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home

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TORONTO @ TAMPA BAY

TORONTO
Toronto is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Toronto is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games

TAMPA BAY
Tampa Bay is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto

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MIAMI @ WASHINGTON

MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington

WASHINGTON
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Washington's last 11 games
Washington is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Miami

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MINNESOTA @ CLEVELAND

MINNESOTA
Minnesota is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Cleveland

CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Cleveland is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games

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CHI CUBS @ DETROIT

CHI CUBS
Chi Cubs is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Chi Cubs's last 13 games on the road

DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games at home
Detroit is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

OAKLAND @ TEXAS

OAKLAND
Oakland is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing Texas
Oakland is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Texas

TEXAS
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Texas's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas's last 6 games at home