Thursday 8/27/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

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Saratoga - Race #1

#4 After Prom Party	Expected stalker likely needed his last off the November break, should be tighter off that, and meets a favorite who is impossible to trust; look out.
#6 Imperio D	Aforementioned favorite couldn't beat an 0-for-18 maiden last time, and lost easily when 3rd too, so taking 2-1 at 10-0-2-3 isn't appealing; trying to beat.
#1 Majestic View	Logical sort adds blinkers after chasing a blazing winner last time, and with just three starts there's upside here, but the rail is no bargain; mixed signals.
Race Summary	That 7-2 ML seems very fair, and note Rosario takes over for Carmouche, so there's some serious intent now second-off the break, so play him aggressively to win and place, and especially to kick off the early Pk5, as this is a race there for the taking, and he appears set for a lifetime best today.

Saratoga - Race #7

#7 Peaceful	Speedster wired N1X foes last time to make it 2-for-2 over the course/distance, drew perfectly, will be involved throughout, and note one of the wins here came over a course with some give in it, which she's likely to get here; local hat trick time.
#4 A Great Time	Pace player is another who will be on or near the lead, and she may shake out as the inside speed, as there's not a lot of it here, and with an improving figure pattern, while making her third start of the year, she should fire a big shot; huge chance.
#1 Rose Flower	Dropper was in too tough in the GIII last time, so this group will be more to her liking, and CC/Rosario have enjoyed a huge meet together, so she certainly fits, though her lack of early speed may leave her with too much to do late; runs out of room.
Race Summary	The price and race flow should both work for the 7, as will the post, and while she rises in class she has upside still and clearly likes the local lawn, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since a win would go a long way in adding plenty of value to both sequences.

Saratoga - Race #8

#2 Texas Swing	The heavy chalk for Pletcher was a rising 3yo before going away after running 3rd to a pair of good ones in the GII Tampa Bay Derby in March, but he's worked well for this, drew perfectly, and sure doesn't meet much; imposing favorite.
#4 Will Sing for Wine	Longshot has done better on the turf but does have some decent main track form, and is bred for this too, and the last time he was on dirt he was on a speedy highway going one-turn at Bel., so he could wake up here; exotics price appeal.
#5 Creative Style	The more logical EX partner was just 2nd to a runaway winner over the track/distance for 32k and now rises in class off the Atras claim, which is a 25% move, and, aside from the pick, there's no one to fear here; would be no surprise for 2nd.
Race Summary	You won't get rich on the 2 but he looks more like 3/5 than 7/5, so make an aggressive win bet if the tote allows, though you can get some built-in value by singling him in the late Pk5/Pk4, and using a price like the 4 underneath in the exotics, as it looks like a name your score type of spot for the pick, who could develop into a serious second-half 3yo.

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Laurel Park - Race #4

#9 No Obligation	Debuts for a Motion barn that has had some success in spots like this locally over the last few years, and he's got a solid pedigree for this short turf trip.
#10 Arrest Me Red	Bred to go quite a bit longer than this, she still has the look of a player for a capable jockey and trainer with a bullet work under his belt.
#4 Ganondorf	Another debuter out of the Motion barn, he's got a versatile kind of pedigree that should serve him well at this trip and can probably land a piece of this.
Race Summary	No Obligation has a pedigree for success at this kind of turf sprint trip, and the Motion barn has won with 25% of runners in similar situations over the last three years.

Laurel Park - Race #7

#5 Benny Havens	Meets a handful of other more likely winners, but there is very little pace signed on in here, and this guy may find himself on a very comfortable lead.
#7 Mr. d'Angelo	Reliable finisher is one of the ones to fear late, but he's going to give the top choice a huge jump into the lane. I'd want him on my tickets but wouldn't dive in within the race if the price gets short on the drop.
#11 Box N Score	Another serious finisher, he impressed from off the pace in that debut run last October. Perhaps he has some ability to sit a bit closer this time around.
Race Summary	Benny Havens should be able to find the front end here in a spot where the major players all want to settle and finish from off the splits. The price should be right.

Laurel Park - Race #8

#6 Galerio	Hate to take the 8/5 ML price, but he's very reliable over the local strip and has turned in a long string of really good efforts.
#2 Universal Payday	Another who isn't likely to offer a big price, but he's right there if he's able to bring something like either of his last two--especially the one at Saratoga. Tactical type will be right there.
#4 The Poser	Has enough tactical pace to work out a trip from close range with these, and he might offer an overlaid price in a spot where the top pair may dominate the wagering action.
Race Summary	Galerio is in excellent form right now, and Universal Payday keeps getting better. The tote board may be tight between the two of them, but Galerio seems the more likely winner.

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Plainridge - Race #2

#2 THREE DAY FORECAST	Forecast is for another big effort in amateur drivers’ race.
#8 KING ROYALTY	Steady late kick, moves inside out, price attached.
#4 DENVER DOLLY	Has 40 wins, still has good first gear at age 12.
Race Summary	Three Day Forecast ran away from the pocket-sitting second favorite through a :56.1 back half. He could sit a pocket trip today and repeat with a duplicate effort. Play 2-4 and 2-8 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1

#4 SPITTIN CHICKLETS	Been facing short-priced winners, fits well with this group.
#5 ALWAYS WATCHING	Second from post 9 after ‘sick’ absence, can use speed wisely.
#10 MARVELOUS KISS	Bid first-over and flattened out against top one, post the concern.
Race Summary	Spitting Chicklets held her ground through a :27.1 final quarter and finished third behind the odds-on winner. A duplicate effort puts her in the winning hunt tonight. Play a 4-5-10 exacta box.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #3

#1 POSEIDON SEELSTER	Held up in traffic at key juncture, surged late at winning fave.
#9 CHAPPIESBOY	Won three in a row at Saratoga Raceway before post 9 assignment.
#10 FAR BETTER	Paced evenly against 1-to-5 winner at Yonkers, early position is key.
Race Summary	Poseidon Seelster was blocked by the outer flow and shuffled to sixth in the third quarter, launched a 4-wide bid late on the turn and gained ground on the pace-controlling favorite. Like his chances from the rail. Play 1-9 and 1-10 exactas.

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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

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Gulfstream Park - Race #5

#2 Fast Venezuela	Ran on for fourth under these conditions last time probably needed that first turf attempt; once she got her feet under her, she was moving well. Expect significant improvement.
#1 Beating the Odds	Was up in time two back and then made a late run for fourth vs. better; fits with these.
#7 Got Glee	Was second in two of her last three and can hang on for a major slice; has been working on a third win for quite a while but it good enough to use.
Race Summary	Fast Venezuela finished with interest in her first on turf, which is a change from a running style on dirt that featured only brief speed. One to hold off if she runs back.

Gulfstream Park - Race #7

#1 Tony's Rose	Made a sharp move for second at this level two back and then was outrun when she tried a higher level; takes a sizable drop and can get up in time.
#3 Classy Beast	Was a fast-closing third in her only turf attempt, which came in a good spot; The Big Beast fily could battle on the front end here and should be tough to catch.
#4 Cat Lady Steph	Set the pace and was caught in the final stride last out; can battle on the front end of this one.
Race Summary	Tony's Rose is well-bred, comes off a good second and should be able to handle this level.

Gulfstream Park - Race #8

#9 Starship Apollo	Came off the pace and was up in time going 6.5 furlongs and should have no problem tuning up in time here going six furlongs. Make his first start for Irion stable, which claimed him last time.
#4 Kalu	Put away a tough foe and drew clear last time in a race that came off the turf; ran second and was claimed by Arriagada barn two back. Can battle throughout.
#6 Jamaican	Very rapid and usually get to the lead at this level; tired last time but turns back in distance and fits with this group.
Race Summary	Starship is back to good form, and this 15-time winner overall and 12-time winner over this strip is at a level at which he should excel.

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Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors 8/27/20 - NBA

The Boston Celtics play Game 1 of their NBA Eastern Conference semifinals best-of-seven series on Thursday against the Toronto Raptors. Boston swept the Philadelphia 76ers in four straight games in their quarterfinals series to open the postseason. The Celtics have won nine of their 12 games since the NBA restart. Boston defeated the Raptors 122-100 during the NBA seeding schedule earlier this month.

Jayson Tatum is leading Boston in scoring and rebounding with averages of 27.0 points and 9.8 rebounds per game. Kemba Walker is the second-leading scorer and leader in assists with averages of 24.3 points and 3.8 assists per game. Jaylen Brown is averaging 21.5 points per game giving the Celtics three players averaging above 21.0 points per game.

Toronto swept the Brooklyn Nets in four straight to win their quarterfinal series and the Raptors have won eight straight and 11 of 12 since returning from the covid-19 pandemic. The only loss suffered by the Raptors since returning to action following layoff of over four months was to the Celtics by 22 points. Toronto is using balanced scoring and tenacious defense to win games.

Fred VanVleet is leading Toronto in scoring and assists with averages of 21.2 points and 7.8 assists per game. Serge Ibaka is the leading rebounder for the Raptors with an average of 10.2 per game. Pascal Siakam, who was the leading scorer during the regular season for Toronto, is the second leading scorer during the playoffs with an average of 20.8 points per game.

Recent Betting Trends

Boston is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 as the dog
The UNDER has cashed in 5 of the Celtics last 6
Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5
The UNDER has cashed in 9 of the Raptors last 13

Free NBA Pick: Boston Celtics +2

In the most recent outing between the two Atlantic division and Eastern Conference rivals, the Boston Celtics easily disposed of the Toronto Raptors 122-100. Boston has covered the number in five of its last seven head-to-head with Toronto. The trio of Jayson Tatum, Kemba Walker and Jaylen Brown are carrying the Celtics with each averaging 21 points or better in scoring during the postseason. Final Score Prediction, Boston Celtics win and cover ATS 110-105.

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LA Clippers vs Dallas Mavericks 8/27/20 - NBA

The LA Clippers look to clinch their best of seven NBA Western Conference quarterfinals series against the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday with a victory in Game 6. The Clippers bounced back from a loss with an outstanding offensive performance in Game 5 beating the Mavericks 154-11. Paul George had his best outing of the postseason with a team-high 35 points, while Kawhi Leonard scored 32 points and Montrezl Harrell chipped in with 19 points and 11 rebounds.

Kawhi Leonard is leading the Clippers in scoring and rebounding with averages of 32.8 points and 9.4 rebounds per game. The second leading scorer for the Clippers is Paul George with an average of 19.2 points per game. Lou Williams is the leader in assists with an average of 4.8 per game. The Clippers have six players averaging double-figures in scoring.

Dallas looks to bounce back and even the best-of-seven series on Thursday when playing the LA Clippers in Game 6. Luka Doncic scored just 22 points in a subpar outing hitting just six of his 17 field goal attempts and head coach Rick Carlisle was given an ejection during the third quarter in a heated game that included six technical fouls and one flagrant foul.

Luka Doncic is leading Dallas in scoring, rebounding and assists with averages of 29.6 points, 10.0 rebounds and 8.6 assists per game. Kristaps Porzingis is the second-leading scorer with an average of 23.7 points per game. Dallas has five players averaging double-figures in scoring.

Recent Betting Trends

Dallas is 2-6 ATS in its last 8
The OVER has cashed in 9 of the Mavericks last 11
LA is 11-4 ATS in its last 15
The OVER has cashed in 10 of the Clippers last 11

Free NBA Pick: Over 240

While LA will clinch the series in Game 6, the play here is the OVER. The OVER has cashed in 9 of the Mavericks last 11 and in 10 of the Clippers last 11. It appears as though Paul George has worked his way out of a shooting slump after scoring 35 points in Game 5, while Luka Doncic will bounce back from a poor performance in Game 5 helping to push the point total OVER. Final Score Prediction, LA Clippers win but our best play is OVER 127-123.

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Denver Nuggets vs Utah Jazz 8/27/20 - NBA

The Denver Nuggets look to even their best-of-seven NBA Western Conference semifinals series on Thursday when playing Game 6 against the Utah Jazz. Denver defeated the Jazz 117-107 on Tuesday in Game 5 to stave off elimination. Jamal Murray scored 42 points including 33 during the second half to help the Nuggets rally and defeat the Jazz.

Jamal Murray is the leading scoring and leader in assists during the postseason for Denver with averages of 30.8 points and 6.8 assists per game. Nikola Jokic is the second-leading scorer and leading rebounder with averages of 26.4 points and 7.8 rebounds per game Denver has four players averaging double-figures in scoring.

Utah squandered a double-digit second half lead in the loss on Tuesday. The Jazz led by 14 points early in the third quarter but could not hold on. Donovan Mitchell was the leading scorer for Utah in the loss with 30 points, while Jordan Clarkson chipped in with 17 points and Joe Ingles added 13. Rudy Gobert was the leading rebounder for Utah in the loss with 12.

Donovan Mitchell is leading Utah in scoring and assists with averages of 37.6 points and 5.6 assists per game. Mike Conley is the second-leading scorer with an average of 23.3 points per game, while Rudy Gobert is the leading rebounder with an average of 10.2 per game. Utah has five players averaging double-figures in scoring.

Recent Betting Trends

Denver is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 following a win ATS
The OVER has cashed in 9 of the Nuggets last 10 as the underdog
Utah is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 as the favorite in the postseason
The OVER has cashed in 7 of the Jazz last 8 on 1 days rest

Free NBA Pick: Denver Nuggets +1.5

Denver will continue its momentum from winning in Game 5 with a victory on Thursday in Game 6 to push the series to a deciding Game 7. The Nuggets will ride the fine play of Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic to victory. The Nuggets have covered the number in six of the last eight versus Utah and four the last six versus an opponent from the Northwest division. Final Score Prediction, Denver Nuggets win and cover ATS 111-108.

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Vegas Golden Knights vs Vancouver Canucks 8/27/2 - NHL

The Vegas Golden Knights look to bounce back from a loss when playing Game 3 of their NHL Western Conference semifinals best of seven series on Thursday against the Vancouver Canucks. Vegas lost 5-2 on Tuesday night to Vancouver leveling the series at 1-1. Scoring for Vegas in the loss were Alex Tuch and Max Pacioretty. Robin Lehner stopped 22 shots in net for just his second loss of the playoffs.

Right winger Alex Tuch is leading Vegas in goals scored during the postseason with six. Defenseman Shea Theodore is the leader in assists with seven and in points with 11. Brayden McNabb has a team-high eight penalty minutes. In goal, Robin Lehner is 6-2 with a goals-against average of 2.34 and a safe percentage of .909.

Vancouver leveled its series with Vegas following its victory on Tuesday. Bo Horvat scored a pair of goals while Elias Pettersson and Tyler Toffoli each scored one goal and assisted on two others. Jacob Markstrom made 38 saves in net with 21 coming during the second period when Vegas pressured the Canucks repeatedly.

Center Bo Horvat is leading Vancouver in goals scored during the postseason with eight. Center Elias Pettersson is the assists leader with 11 and points leader with 16. Antoine Roussel has a team-high 32 penalty minutes. In goal, Jacob Markstrom is 8-4 with a goals against average of 2.64 and a save percentage of .925.

Recent Betting Trends

Vegas is 9-3 in its last 12 versus Vancouver
The OVER has cashed in 4 of the Golden Knights last 5 versus the Canucks
Vancouver is 8-3 in its last 11
The OVER has cashed in 6 of the Canucks last 9

Free NHL Pick: Over 5.5 Goals

When these two NHL teams take the ice you can expect plenty of goals to be scored. Therefore, the OVER is the play. The OVER has cashed in four of the last five games played between the two. The OVER has also cashed in six of Vancouver's last nine overall. Final Score Prediction, Vancouver Canucks win but our best play is OVER 5-3.

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NY Islanders vs Philadelphia Flyers 8/27/20 - NHL

The Flyers are coming off of an overtime victory over the Islanders in the second game. Now, the Islanders are going to have to figure out how to keep the Flyers offense in check. The Islanders fell behind in the game early on, but did manage to battle back in the game and tie it to force an overtime.

With the win the Flyers were able to take advantage of the backup goalie that was in net for the Islanders for part of the game. Once he started to have issues in the game, the Islanders changed the goalie almost right away and Greiss managed to keep the Flyers at bay.

New York in the game played really well, but ended up with the total of 34 shots in the game. When it came to delivering the hits the Islanders managed to get a total of 39 hits. New York managed to win 31 faceoffs in the game.

Philadelphia ended up playing really well in the game, obviously with the win, but put up a total of 31 shots. The Flyers were not as physical in the game and ended up with only 31 hits total. Philadelphia did end up winning 27 faceoffs in the game.

Recent Betting Trends

NY Islanders are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games.
NY Islanders are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games against Philadelphia.
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Philadelphia's last 13 games.
Philadelphia are 16-4 SU in their last 20 games.

Free NHL Pick: New York Islanders -107

In the game here the series is even and the Islanders were able to play decent hockey in the game. Now, the Islanders are going to have a chance to pull out the win here. Look for the Islanders to come in playing better defensively in the game and that will keep the Flyers offense shut down, but also for the Islanders to increase their offensive pressure in the game. Final Score Prediction, New York Islanders win 4-2.

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Las Vegas Aces vs Seattle Storm 8/27/20 - WNBA

The Las Vegas Aces look to run their winning streak to four straight on Thursday when playing the Seattle Storm. Las Vegas defeated the Dallas Wings 96-92 for their third consecutive victory and improved to 11-3. A'ja Wilson was the leading scorer for Las Vegas with 26 points. Thursday's game against Seattle will be for first place in the Western Conference as Las Vegas trails the Storm by just a half-game and a victory would put the Aces into first place.

A'ja Wilson is leading Las Vegas in scoring and rebounding with averages of 20.3 points and 8.8 rebounds per game. Wilson is hitting 46% of her field goals and 78% of her free throws. Danielle Robinson is the leader in assists for Las Vegas with an average of 3.1 per game. Four players for the Aces are averaging double-figures in scoring.

Seattle snapped a two-game losing streak by defeating the Indiana Fever 87-74 on Tuesday. The victory improved Seattle's record to 12-3. Breanna Stewart scored 27 points, pulled down nine rebounds and handed out four assists for the Storm in the victory. Prior to losing two straight the Storm had won 10 straight.

Breanna Stewart is leading Seattle in scoring and rebounding with averages of 19.7 points and 8.0 rebounds per game. Stewart is shooting 48% from the field and 87.5% from the free throw line. Jordin Canada is leading Seattle in assists with an average of 5.4 per game. The Storm have three players averaging double-figures in scoring.

Recent Betting Trends

Las Vegas is 5-2 ATS in its last 7
The OVER has cashed in 4 of the Aces last 6
Seattle is 7-2 ATS in its last 9
The OVER has cashed in 5 of the Storm’s last 7

Free WNBA Pick: Las Vegas Aces -1

Las Vegas defeated Seattle 82-74 in their first head-to-head meeting of the season early last week. The Aces have a trio of players - A’ja Wilson, Angel McCoughtry and Dearcia Hamby - that have proved to be difficult for Seattle to control. The threesome are averaging double figures in scoring and are the three top rebounders for Las Vegas. The Aces make it two straight against Seattle with a victory on Thursday. Final Score Prediction, Las Vegas Aces win and cover ATS 85-80.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NY Liberty vs Dallas Wings 8/27/20 - WNBA

Both the Dallas Wings and New York Liberty have stuttered to a start this season. The Liberty found their second win of the season winning 101-99 over the Chicago Sky; the win snapped a 7 game losing streak and LIberty improved to 2-12 on the season. The WIngs have lost their last two games, falling 96-92 to the Las Vegas Aces and falling to 5-10 on the season.

Dallas is averaging 81.9 points per game ranking 6th in scoring offense in the WNBA this season. The Wings are shooting just 41.5% from the field to rank 11th in team shooting percentage and 33.3% from beyond the arc the 10th ranked scoring offense. Dallas is led in scoring by Arike Ogunbowale who is averaging a league-high 21.6 points per game. Ogunbowale alos leads the team with 3.5 assists per game. Complimenting the scoring presence of Ogunbowale is forward Satou Sabally who adds in 12.3 points per game while adding a team-high 7.5 rebounds.

The Liberty were plagued with the crucial injury of first overall pick Sabrina Ionescu. Ionescu played in just three games before suffering an ankle injury and was averaging a team-high 18.3 points per game. Without Ionescu on the floor, the Liberty look lost on the offensive end averaging just 74.9 points per game, the worst scoring offense in the WNBA, and are shooting league worsts from the field (38.4%) and from three (29.6%).

New York is allowing 89.7 points per game to rank 11th/12 in scoring defense and are allowing opponents to shoot 47% from the field, tied for last. Opposing teams are also shooting 38.9% from beyond the arc, the second-worst three-point defense. The Wings are allowing 85.4 points per game to rank 7th in scoring defense but opposing teams are shooting 46.1% from the field.

Recent Betting Trends

New York is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games.
New York is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games.

Free WNBA Pick: Dallas Wings -8

New York had low expectations coming off last season but the emergence of Sabrina Ionescu early in the season was a lone bright spot. After being listed out indefinitely due to her grade-3 ankle sprain, the Liberty seemingly entered into “tank” mode. The Liberty rank last in scoring offense and second to last in scoring defense and despite coming off a win over the Sky, the Liberty are outmatched in this contest. The Wings behind volume shooter Arike Ogunbowale blowout the worst team in the WNBA, winning decisively and covering the spread. Final score prediction, Dallas Wings win 97-81.

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Indiana Fever vs Chicago Sky 8/27/20 - WNBA

The Sky are one team that has not really lost that many games since coming back. However, the Sky have ended up with an overall record of 10-5. The problem for the Sky is their last game was against the Liberty in a game that shocked the Sky was a loss. The loss actually pointed out a struggling defense for the Sky who allowed 101 points to be scored, but the offense for Chicago put in 99 points.

The leading scorer in the game for the Sky was Allie Quigley who put in a total of 29 points in the game. Quigley shot only 9/22 from the floor, but went 7/7 from the line. The rebounding leader for the Sky was Gabby Williams who pulled down a total of 8 rebounds in the game. Courtney Vandersloot managed to get a total of 9 assist in the game for the Sky and only turned the ball over once.

The Fever are one team that has bounced all over the place on the year so far. The Fever are coming into the game here with a 5-9 record overall. The last game on the court for the Fever was against the Seattle club and it ended up being an 87-74 loss in the game.

The Fever were led in the scoring department in the losing effort by Kennedy Burke. She ended up with a total of 17 points, but went 5/11 from the field and 4/6 from the line. Pulling down the missed shots in the game fell to Teaira McCowan who ended up with a total of 11 boards in the game.

Free WNBA Pick: Chicago Sky -7

The game here will feature a couple of teams that have struggled lately. The difference is the Sky are struggling, but they do have an offense that should be able to come into the game and trounce the Fever defense, which has struggled. The Fever offense should play up on the game here and that should keep the game close, but the Sky does better offensively in the game. Final Score Prediction, Chicago Sky win 98-88.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

THU, AUG 27TH - 4:00PM ET:
DENVER NUGGETS @ UTAH JAZZ PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS

UTA Jazz Win -1.5 Point Spread
-110

Over 220.5 Game Totals
-110

Against the Spread Pick
It Denver Nuggets are facing an elimination game as they prepare to battle the Utah Jazz again on Thursday. Denver got another amazing performance from Jamal Murray (42 points) in Game 5 to keep its season alive. It takes something that special to beat the Jazz, who had won three in a row and led by four points going into the fourth quarter on Tuesday before Murray took over. They could have swept this series, actually, as they should have won the opener–leading by four points with the ball as less than two minutes remained on the clock until Donovan Mitchell got called for an eight-second violation while brining it up the court. Utah dominated Game 2 and Game 3 by 19 and 27 points, respectively, so it is not only capable of winning but also winning big. Mitchell has been every bit as good as Murray, too; his point totals this series are 57 (with the benefit of overtime), 30, 20, 51, and 30. The Nuggets are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 first-round games and 2-6 ATS in their last eight following a win. Go with the Jazz.


Over Under Pick
Utah scored only 107 points (low by its current standards) and Game 5 still went over the total. The Jazz had previously produced 125, 124, 124, and 129 points. We have rolled with the over five times this series to the effect of a 4-1 record, so there is no reason to stop now. Mitchell and Murray are on fire, while Mike Conley’s return has been an additional boost for Utah on the offensive end. The over is 9-2 in the Jazz’s last 11 overall and 6-1 in their last six against opponents with winning percentages over .600. It is also 22-7-1 in the Nuggets’ last 29 overall, 6-0 in their last six against opponents with winning percentages over .600, and 9-1 in their last 10 as underdogs. Look for this one to go over the total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

THU, AUG 27TH - 6:30PM ET:
BOSTON CELTICS @ TORONTO RAPTORS PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS

BOS Celtics Win +2.0 Point Spread
-110

Over 216.0 Game Totals
-110

Against the Spread Pick
Second-round action in the NBA playoffs will get underway on Thursday with an extremely intriguing series between the Toronto Raptors and Boston Celtics. Both teams are coming off sweeps, as Toronto took care of Brooklyn and Boston blasted Philadelphia. Even without Ben Simmons, the 76ers are a formidable foe and the Celtics made them look pedestrian at best. As for the depleted Nets, they competed well but were hardly more than a walkover for the Raptors. Boston also has to be feeling good about how it performed in this head-to-head matchup during the regular season, winning three of four contests–including a 122-100 victory in the bubble on Aug. 7. Kemba Walker and Jayson Tatum were outstanding in round one, but they didn’t do much in that Aug. 7 win and Boston still dominated. The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last five against opponents with winning records and 15-5 ATS in their last 20 as underdogs. Toronto is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 conference semifinal games and 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings between the two teams. Lean toward Boston, and even though the spread is minimal it would probably be best to take the points instead of the money line.


Over Under Pick
Three of the four regular-season games between Toronto and Boston went over Thursday’s total (216). The Raptors are coming off a 150-point outburst in Game 4 against Brooklyn and they also scored 134 in the opener of that series. Norman Powell scored 24 and 29 points in Game 2 and Game 4, respectively. The Celtics had three guys average more than 20.0 ppg against Philadelphia (Walker, Tatum, and Jaylen Brown). The over is 13-5 in the Raptors’ last 18 after scoring at least 125 points in their previous outing. Go with the over and do so with confidence.