Friday 8/28/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-28-2020, 06:11 AM

Weekly Bankroll Builder: August 28 Stronach 5 Play

August 26, 2020 | By Brian Nadeau

Wednesday, August 21, 2020 by Host Brian Nadeau

We welcome back Golden Gate Fields in this week’s Stronach 5, which once again has a 100k guarantee, and a prospective pool that should far surpass that. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 90 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.

*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update. ***

Leg 1: Laurel Park R7 (3:56 ET) – 3up 40k MCL at 7 furlongs

I never like to say a horse has to win, but #7 THE CAIRO KID (8-5) has to win the opening leg on the MSW drop, as not only are his last two dirt races a month better than anyone here, but said anyone here doesn’t come close to stacking up to his form, so I’ll take the bait and single a horse that looks about 4-5 when the dust settles.

Pk5 A horses: 7 (listed in order of preference)

Should ‘Kid falter then maybe #5 MORE TWIRL (10-1) has an upset chance, as he adds Lasix, has run just twice, and once on dirt, and gets off the rail in his dirt debut, when the rider lost the whip too. The MSW drop should also help #6 STASH MY MONEY (9-2), and his stalking style will too, but at 15-0-2-4 he’s very dicey, and came up empty at Parx, and Lake is 0-for-10 here, so tread lightly. Going second-off the layoff could help #3 BARRISTER (8-1), and is best puts him on the line with ‘Kid, but he’s been dreadful in his last two, so he’s impossible to trust and it’s implausible to think he finds that form again either.

Pk5 B horses: 5,6,3

Potential B add-ins: #2 Royal Thunder (4-1), #4 Maybe Someday (10-1)

Leg 2: Gulfstream Park R9 (4:14 ET) – 2f 35k MCL at 1-mile (turf)

A tough race, as there’s little in terms of proven turf form, but firsters #4 VIBURNUM (5-1) and #2 SAMURAI FIGHTER (9-2) both drew well, have a slew of works for solid connections, and sure don’t meet much, so they have to be used in some form. Experienced runners #5 BLUE PAYNT (3-1) and #7 BEACH CHICK (6-1) have an edge because of their runs, and the former has been 3rd twice and the latter drops from the MSW ranks, so I’ll toss them in too.

Pk5 A horses: 4,2,5,7

I can’t use #9 ZAP MAMA (7-2) on the top line off that horrific debut, plus this post is brutal, so I respect her on the drop for Maker, but there’s no way I can put her on the main ticket from out here off that unveiling.

Pk5 B horses: 9

Potential B add-ins: #6 Gulf Coast Gal (4-1)

Leg 3: Laurel Park R8 (4:32 ET) – 3up Maryland-bred N1X* at 1-mile (turf)

What do you do with the speedy # 10 DUNDALK (5-2), who wins this by 7 if he’s right, but hasn’t been seen since 6/19 and drew worst of all? The awesome works on display say you have to use him, and the fact he’s not entered for a tag off the long break bodes well too, but I’m not sure I can stand alone with him, especially since he meets a lot of other speed, and is off a trainer change (though new conditioner Dilodovio is every bit as good as O’Connell). So, with that being said, I’ll use a few others, as #2 CANNON’S ROAR (4-1) drew perfectly, enters off an open N1X win over the course, and has a stalking gear that should enable him to trip out beautifully off all the speed, while #5 BROKER’S REWARD (6-1) goes for Trombetta, who I have a lot of respect for and is 13% off this extended layoff, and this one shows some big works, shows turf races from last year that fit with everyone but Dundalk, can stalk all the speed, and note McCarthy is 28% when he rides for the barn.

*** Please note that I will be singling Dundalk to keep the cost of the backup tickets down. ***

Pk5 A horses: 10,2,5

I contemplated singling Dundalk before thinking otherwise, so I won’t be using any other backups with now a trio lined up on the top line.

Pk5 B horses: NONE

Potential B add-ins: #6 Seville Barber (9-2), #7 Start With Yes (6-1)

Leg 4: Laurel Park R9 (5:07 ET) – 3upfm 25k MCL at 1-mile (turf)

I don’t like the fact #4 ESTHER’S FORTUNE (5-1) blew a 3 ½-length late lead but it was her turf bow, and she’s run just twice, so off that, with a good post and a ton of upside, she looks primed for a big run. Getting back to the turf and dropping in class will help #9 PERFECT KIND (7-2), but the losses are adding up and she seems to find one or two better, so tread lightly if you’re keying her.

Pk5 A horses: 4,9

Both #6 R V TREASURE (4-1) and #12 RAZOR GIRL (4-1) have their merits and need to be used, but the former has seen her form stagnate, and the latter is marooned out wide, so I’ll relegate them to the second tier.

Pk5 B horses: 6,12

Potential B add-ins: #11 You’re Doing Fine (10-1), #10 Pearlyville (10-1)

Leg 5: Golden Gate Fields R2 (5:20 ET) – 3upfm 20k MCL at 1-mile (turf)

The finale looks like the ole ‘Use one or use them all,” and I certainly can’t do the latter, so I’ll do the former and go with #5 LEMON DROP TINI (5-2), who simply looks better than a muddled group, drops in class off a Dmr MSW, and wins this with ease off any of her previous four runs while facing tons better.

Pk5 A horses: 5

I have no clue why #7 SURFACE (2-1) is the ML favorite but she could win if the pick stubs her toe, but the local MSW run was awful and she may be regressing from her Ca. form, while both #3 KAYDA (10-1) and #2 HEATSKY (8-1) drew well and have some solid turf form, so they are worth inclusion on a backup ticket.

Pk5 B horses: 7,3,2

Potential B add-ins: #1 Foggy Bottom (9-2)

The tickets:

Main Ticket: 7 with 4,2,5,7 with 10,2,5 with 4,9 with 5 = $24 (play for $2)
Leg 1 B Backup: 5,6,3 with 4,2,5,7 with 10 with 4,9 with 5 = $24
Leg 2 B Backup: 7 with 9 with 10 with 4,9 with 5 = $2
Leg 4 B Backup: 7 with 4,2,5,7 with 10 with 6,12 with 5 = $8
Leg 5 B Backup: 7 with 4,2,5,7 with 10 with 4,9 with 7,3,2 = $24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-28-2020, 06:12 AM

Al Cimaglia: Hoosier Park Pick 5 Analysis

August 28, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Tonight, Hoosier Park has a 14-race card set to go which will feature Indiana Sires Stakes action. The 0.50 Pick 5 starts in Race 10, the sequence will have a $10,000 guaranteed pool and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 10

5-Captain Zamperini (3-1)-Winner of only 3 in the last 41 but one victory came on 8/21 in a condition-claiming event. Since being claimed by the Ode barn, has faced better and gone faster than in recent starts. Moves up but will string along with connections.
6-The Candyman Can (2-1)-Burke trainee is only 2 for 16 lifetime but takes a good drop tonight. Raced the last half in .54 last time but was too far back versus a solid field. Should like the company and best to respect.

Race 11

2-PBR Street Gang (4-1)-Broke in last start in the Fox Stakes from the 2nd tier but that was the 1st miscue since on 6/29 in a qualifier. Tetrick was not in the bike in last, he returns and knows well. Looking for a rebound at a square price.
8-JK Going West (7/2)-This 2-year-old has had 5 starts with 4 second place finishes and has been driven fairly conservatively. Maybe it's time to get more aggressive and previous winners are not in this field.
9-Madelines BLK Jack (3-1)-Lost for 1st time in 3 starts on 8/4 to Virgo the program chalk in the next leg who won by 5 lengths. In that race was use hard for the lead and now has been off for over 3 weeks. The rest may help and doesn't need to get on the engine to win.

Race 12

3-Virgo (5/2)-Dominated in the Fox Stakes and is shooting for 3rd straight picture and Tetrick sticks. Likes to sizzle the back half and could find some live cover to do the same this time.
5-What's Your Beef (7/2)-Has been off since 8/4 but did qualify well at ScD on 8/18 and now tries Lasix for the 1st time. Brown trainee is a perfect 4 for 4 but may need this start. Hoping will be ready for a big try and will use in case #3 doesn't have his fastball.

Race 13

2-Rockinbeach (7/2)-Has begun slowly in last 5 starts but now draws back inside and regular pilot returns. Likes the track, winning 10 of 44 at HoP.
5-Ballerat Boomergang (4-1)-This is the 4th start for the Simmons barn and they have won their share. Stayed inside at this class last week starting from the rail but did pace the last half in 54.2. Bates may look to roll off cover and sweep by late for 1st win of 2020.
7-Sawyer's Desire (9/5)-Might have been a single if drew better but not sure if a picture is happening coming off cover. This colt is facing older foes and may not land on the top without a struggle, so will use and look to others for more value.

Race 14

Looking for a fair price in a race where #1 the 5/2 choice is 0-16 this year. The program chalk has faded down the lane in all 9 starts since returning to action. Plus, the last start was at this same level, so will look to beat.
4-Shadyjake (9/2)-Jake drops to a comfortable spot and should be more forwardly placed than in recent starts. Tetrick should have in striking range at the top of the lane. Has won 9 of 63 at HoP and looks to offer a square price.
6-Dont Say Goodby (6-1)-12-year-old drops to a spot to shine and could add some pop to the Pick 5 payout. Miller should be able to put in play in a race without a standout.

0.50 Pick 5

5,6/2,8,9/3,5/2,5,7/4,6
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-28-2020, 07:00 AM

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MONMOUTH PARK
RACE #5
TIME: 6:49 PM EST
PICK: #1 Kristi’s Copilot 7/2 Odds to Win

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-28-2020, 07:00 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Saratoga - Race #2

#3 Timeless Journey	Price player had a nightmare trip in her MCL win yet won for fun, and while this is a significant rise in class, it's a great sign to see she's not in for a tag; upset special.
#5 Hurricane Breeze	Stretch runner was just 4th to a few of these but she was close, and there's plenty of speed here, plus the course should have some give to it; will be rolling in the lane.
#7 Come Storming	Pace presser did well to draw outside the speed and horse to beat (#4), and that close 3rd behind her, and over the 5, last time makes her a big threat here; big chance.
Race Summary	The price will be right on the 3 and her run last time clearly hints that she has talent, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially to early Pk5, and to kick off the early Pk4 as well, since she's in a spot where the three favorites aren't overwhelming, and are closely grouped too, which means if this miss can move forward she'll have a chance to upset them, and add a ton of value to both sequences in the process as well. If on dirt: 3-4-5

Saratoga - Race #4

#6 Majestic West	Dangerous CD invader was just a good 3rd at this level, against what was a better group too, and this outside attack post is perfect for his style; look out.
#2 Stage Left	Logical sort will like the drop out of the N1X ranks, and the run two-back was strong, though there's no value here and he drew a tricky post; second-best.
#1 Cobble Hill	Class riser was a fast 2nd off the Rodriguez claim last time, with a number that works here, but this post, and rise in class, won't make it easy; tread lightly.
Race Summary	That 9-2 ML on the pick would be a heck of a lot of value in a six-horse field, but even 3-1 seems fair based on his credentials and post, so play him aggressively to win and place, while getting some added value by keying him in the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since he looks to be getting all the best of it here, over a field of locals that look a bit ho-hum.

Saratoga - Race #7

#3 Matta	Lightly raced talker was a good 2nd to a rousing winner at Lrl last time, in fast time too, lures Irad, has a ton of upside, and can sit off what looks like a hot early pace; call in a scramble.
#4 Honey Won't	Versatile sort got up going 7Fs last time and now cuts back, is another who will like all the pace, and note that win came over a course with some give to it, like he'll get here; do not ignore.
#9 Rocket Heat	The wildcard wins this with his best, as he a stakes caliber runner, but he hasn't been out since Dec. and is now with Cannizzo, so he could need this off the extended break; mixed signals.
Race Summary	That 10-1 ML offers plenty of risk-reward to see if the 3 can play on the big stage, and with Irad named there's some clear intent here, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since this is a very deep race, and if you can get a 7-1 or so home, you're going to be adding plenty of value to both sequences.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-28-2020, 07:01 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #3

#7 My Boy Paddy	Price player gets Lasix off the dull main track run, but the turf debut wasn't all bad, and the price figures to be right.
#1 First Law	Owns a couple of nice sprint efforts already, and the pedigree is versatile enough to think the move around two turns isn't going to cause him too much trouble.
#4 Patriot Game	Can't ignore a runner like this, but he's probably going to be overbet compared to his realistic chances of winning this based on the barn.
Race Summary	My Boy Paddy outran his 81-1 price in the debut on turf, and he can probably produce a better effort than that as he gets back to the grass with some experience under his belt.

Laurel Park - Race #5

#3 Line Dancing	Brings a big turf pedigree to this one with versatile sire Speightstown on top of a Dynaformer mare, and she may be able to outrun her price today.
#6 Hey Babe	Barn does good work with these types, but not sure what to make of the spotty, spaced worktab in advance of the debut run.
#9 Superhelpful	Finished with some enthusiasm in the turf debut going short at Keeneland, and she may be able to work out a tactical kind of trip while going long today.
Race Summary	Line Dancing debuts with a pedigree tilted to this kind of trip, and a couple of name barns might command the action in this spot, leaving this filly at a playable number out of the box.

Laurel Park - Race #8

#7 Start With Yes	Showed some ability in that turf sprint a few starts back, and he proved a good fit with this kind of company in that last run. Chance at a price.
#10 Dundalk	No doubt he's the one to beat, but this is also the day to try and beat him. He's returning off a nearly 15-month break and meets some other speed that may not make for a hospitable trip off the layoff.
#1 Seville Row	Class riser has been moving in the right direction, and another step forward would put him in range of landing a piece of this at a big number.
Race Summary	Start With Yes can get first jump while tracking a couple of pace players, and the price should be playable enough with a great race shape looming.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-28-2020, 07:02 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #1

#7 KINDA LUCKY LINDY	Right spot for confidence-building win, switches pilots.
#2 AMADOR	Gapped cover off 2-1 winner, shot rail in stretch, finished well.
#1 BOY MEETS GIRL	10-year-old returns after 10 months away with 29 wins and $420k bankroll.
Race Summary	Kinda Lucky Lindy takes needed class drop with 0-6 record this year, gets Hall of Famer to drive and exits split race that timed 4/5 faster. Not much in here, so play 7-1 and 7-2 exactas.

Scioto Downs - Race #1

#2 ROLLING THUNDER	Hot at claim box, switches pilots again, draws favorably.
#3 GERARDO	Led until late in his last two starts at notch below.
#9 GRANTMEAWISH	Steady check-getter exits fast heats, offers value to exotic wagers.
Race Summary	Somebody likes something about Rolling Thunder, claimed in four consecutive starts despite a 1-23 record this year. He made second-over advances from difficult posts recently, so let’s give him an upset nod. Play a 2-3-9 exacta box.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #3

#3 THREEFIFTYTWO	Shuffled at key juncture when second in Hambo elim two back.
#4 CAPRICORNUS	Ships in for top trotting barn, plays to a steady beat, save for break in latest.
#6 HOT WHEELZ	Second to 8-to-5 pace setter at half-mile oval after two others went off stride.
Race Summary	Threefiftytwo returns home from Hambletonian trip in which he finished a troubled second in the elimination heat and tired badly in the final. He figures tough if he stays flat, so play 3-4 and 3-6 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-28-2020, 07:03 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #4

#4 Galileos Ballerina	Tired in the G3 Florida Oaks after breaking her maiden at Fair Grounds; has a good closing move and gets a good pace set-up for her rally.
#2 Yolanda's Pride	Breezed to an easy win vs. softer company, but that effort was strong and fast enough to warrant serious consideration as she takes on better.
#6 Afficionado	Was second in her last three, including the last one behind Yolanda's Pride; usually finishes with interest.
Race Summary	Galileos Ballerina closed in two of three races and has works well for her first since March; has the class to get it done here.

Gulfstream Park - Race #6

#6 Five of Hearts	Ran on for fourth going seven furlongs last time and his best can make him a solid late player.
#8 Royal Duke	Weakened after setting the early pace in an optional claiming sprint last out; fits well at this level.
#4 Free Flay	Crushed rivals in his only start and can be a force on the front end; has worked well when asked and makes his first since January.
Race Summary	Five of Hearts can benefit from running from off a fast pace and can be moving best at the end.

Gulfstream Park - Race #8

#5 Allurstra	Was claimed by Walder last time as held second; gets blinkers in his first start for the new barn and had a good drill earlier in the week.
#7 Stone Hands	Lost a photo last time out in his best race in about two years; will be very tough if he runs back to his latest.
#6 Elias My Love	Hasn't been out since June 2019 when he stumbled and lost his rider; goes from the Navarro barn to the Joseph stable and likely will be ready to go.
Race Summary	Allurstra worked well for his first for Walder and the addition of blinkers could help him keep focused; has the talent to prevail.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-28-2020, 08:50 AM

MLB

Friday, August 28

National League
Atlanta @ Philadelphia
Braves (18-12):
Erlin is 0-0, 2.25 in two starts (8 IP) this year.
Teams’ record in his starts: 2-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-1-1
Allowed run in first inning: 1-2 Totals: 1-1

— Braves won five of their last seven games.
— Atlanta is 4-7 in its last 11 road games.
— Over is 8-3-2 in their last 13 games.

Phillies (12-14)
Wheeler is 3-0, 3.03 in five starts this year.
Teams’ record in his starts: 3-2 Team in first 5 innings: 3-1-1
Allowed run in first inning: 1-5 Totals: over 3-2

— Philly won its last three games.
— Phillies won its last three home games.
— Over is 4-1-1 in their last six games.

Chicago @ Cincinnati
Cubs (18-12):
Hendricks is 3-3, 3.55 in six starts this season.
Teams’ record in his starts: 3-3 Team in first 5 innings: 3-1-2
Allowed run in first inning: 0-6 Totals: over 4-2

— Cubs are 5-9 in their last 14 games.
— Chicago won six of its ten road games.
— Over is 8-4 in their last 12 games.

Reds (13-17)
Mahle is 0-1, 3.46 in three starts this season.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-3 Team in first 5 innings: 1-2
Allowed run in first inning: 0-3 Totals: under 2-1

— Cincinnati swept a twin bill Thursday, after losing five of its previous six games.
— Reds are 5-7 at home this season.
— Under is 8-2 in the Reds’ last ten games.

Pittsburgh @ Milwaukee
Pirates (9-19):
Holland is 1-1, 6.75 in four starts this year.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-3 Team in first 5 innings: 3-1
Allowed run in first inning: 1-4 Totals: over 3-1

— Pirates won five of their last seven games.
— Pittsburgh is 4-10 on the road this year.
— Pirates are 2-4 in road series openers.
— Under is 6-3-1 in their last 10 road games.

Brewers (13-17):
Burnes is 0-0, 3.38 in three starts this year.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-2 Team in first 5 innings: 1-1-1
Allowed run in first inning: 2-3 Totals: 1-1-1

— Milwaukee lost seven of its last ten games.
— Brewers lost eight of their 12 home games.
— Under is 4-3 in Milwaukee’s last seven home games.

San Diego @ Colorado
Padres (19-14)
Davies is 2-0, 3.46 in his last two starts; he is at Coors Field.
Teams’ record in his starts: 4-2 Team in first 5 innings: 4-2
Allowed run in first inning: 2-4 Totals: 3-3

— San Diego won eight of its last ten games.
— Padres are 2-5 in their last seven road games.
— Over is 8-2 in their last ten games.

Rockies (16-15):
Freeland is 2-1, 2.87 in three starts this year, 1-0, 2.29 in three home starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 4-2 Team in first 5 innings: 3-2-1
Allowed run in first inning: 2-6 Totals: under 5-1

— Rockies won their last three games.
— Colorado lost five of its last six home games.
— Over is 6-2 in their last eight home games.

San Francisco @ Arizona
Giants (15-18):
TAnderson is 1-0, 3.75 in his last four starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 2-3 Team in first 5 innings: 1-3-1
Allowed run in first inning: 1-4 Totals: over 3-2

— Giants got shutout twice in a doubleheader loss to LA yesterday, after they had won seven games in a row.
— SF is 6-10 on the road this season.
— Under is 4-1-1 in Giants’ last six games.

Diamondbacks (13-19):
Gallen is 0-0, 2.25 in six starts this season.
Teams’ record in his starts: 4-2 Team in first 5 innings: 1-5
Allowed run in first inning: 1-6 Totals: under 4-1-1

— Arizona lost its last eight games overall.
— Diamondbacks won seven of their last ten home games.
— Under is 10-3 in their last 13 games.

American League
Minnesota @ Detroit
Twins (20-12)
Dobnak is 5-0, 1.71 in his last five starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 5-1 Team in first 5 innings: 5-1
Allowed run in first inning: 1-6 Totals: under 5-1

Bullpen game
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-0 Totals: 0-0

— Twins split their last eight games.
— Minnesota is 5-8 in its last 13 road games.
— Twins are 8-3 in series openers.
— Under is 10-1-2 in their last 13 games.

Tigers (13-16):
Boyd is 0-3, 8.76 in five starts this year.
Teams’ record in his starts: 2-3 Team in first 5 innings: 1-3-1
Allowed run in first inning: 3-5 Totals: 2-2-1

Skubal is 0-1, 10.39 in his first two MLB starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-1 Team in first 5 innings: 1-1
Allowed run in first inning: 2-2 Totals: over 2-0

— Detroit lost 12 of its last 16 games.
— Tigers lost six of their last eight home games.
— Over is 10-5 in their last 14 games.

Baltimore @ Toronto
Orioles (14-16):
Means is 0-2, 10.12 in four starts (10.2 IP) this year.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-4 Team in first 5 innings: 0-4
Allowed run in first inning: 2-4 Totals: over 3-1

— Orioles lost eight of their last ten games overall.
— Baltimore is 8-3 on the road this season.
— Under is 6-1 in their last seven games.

Blue Jays (15-14):
Ryu is 2-0, 1.19 in his last four starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 4-2 Team in first 5 innings: 3-2-1
Allowed run in first inning: 0-6 Totals: over 3-2-1

— Blue Jays are 11-8 in their last 19 games.
— Jays are 5-4 in their “home” games in Buffalo.
— Over is 4-2-1 in their last seven games.

Kansas City @ Chicago
Royals (12-18):
Duffy is 2-0, 2.70 in his last two starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 3-3 Team in first 5 innings: 3-2-1
Allowed run in first inning: 1-6 Totals: under 4-1-1

— Royals lost seven of their last 11 games.
— KC lost seven of its last ten road games.
— Under is 9-1-2 in their last 12 games.

White Sox (18-12):
Lopez allowed six runs in four IP in two starts this year.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-1 Team in first 5 innings: 0-1-1
Allowed run in first inning: 1-2 Totals: over 2-0

— Chicago won 10 of its last 14 games overall.
— White Sox won their last six home games.
— Over is 4-3 in their last seven games.

Oakland @ Houston
A’s (22-10):
Bassitt is 1-1, 5.94 in his last three starts; he is 2-0, 4.32 in three road starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 4-2 Team in first 5 innings: 3-3
Allowed run in first inning: 4-6 Totals: under 5-1

— Oakland won 19 of its last 25 games.
— A’s are 9-6 on the road this season.
— Under is 6-2 in their last eight games

Astros (17-14):
McCullers is 1-1, 3.06 in his last three starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 4-2 Team in first 5 innings: 3-2-1
Allowed run in first inning: 1-6 Totals: 3-3

— Astros lost four of their last six games overall.
— Houston won eight of their last nine home games.
— Over is 6-2 in their last eight games.

Seattle @ Anaheim
Mariners (13-20):
Margevicius is 1-2, 3.77 in three starts this year.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-2 Team in first 5 innings: 1-2
Allowed run in first inning: 0-3 Totals: under 2-1

— Seattle won six of its last eight games.
— Mariners lost eight of their last ten road tilts.
— Over is 4-1 in their last five road games.

Angels (10-22):
Heaney is 0-2, 9.00 in his last three starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-5 Team in first 5 innings: 3-2-1
Allowed run in first inning: 1-6 Totals: over 4-2

— Angels are 3-11 in their last 14 games.
— Halos are 1-5 in their last six home games.
— Over is 13-2-2 in their last 17 games.

Interleague
New York (NL) @ New York (AL)
Mets (13-16)
Wacha is 1-2, 6.43 in three starts this year.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-2 Team in first 5 innings: 1-2
Allowed run in first inning: 1-3 Totals: under 3-0

unknown starter
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-0 Totals: 0-0

— Mets won four of their last six games overall.
— New York is 7-7 on the road this season.
— Over is 4-2 in their last six games.

Bronx (16-11):
Montgomery is 2-1, 4.66 in four starts this year.
Teams’ record in his starts: 3-1 Team in first 5 innings: 2-2
Allowed run in first inning: 1-4 Totals: under 3-1

Bullpen game
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-0 Totals: 0-0

— Bronx lost its last five games.
— New York is 10-3 at home, but lost its last three home games.
— Under is 5-1-1 in their last seven games.

Tampa Bay @ Miami
Rays (21-11):
Yarbrough is 0-0, 5.27 in his last three starts; he is 0-1, 3.95 in three road starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 3-3 Team in first 5 innings: 0-3-3
Allowed run in first inning: 1-6 Totals: under 4-2

— Tampa Bay won 15 of its last 18 games.
— Rays won their five road games.
— Under is 3-1-1 in their last five games.

Marlins (14-12):
Sixto Sanchez allowed three runs in five IP (66 PT) in his MLB debut.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-0 Team in first 5 innings: 1-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-1 Totals: over 1-0

— Miami won three of its last four games.
— Marlins lost their last five home games.
— Over is 8-3 in their last 11 games.

Washington @ Boston
Nationals (11-17):
Scherzer is 1-1, 5.30 in his last four starts; he is 1-0, 4.15 in two road starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 4-2 Team in first 5 innings: 3-2-1
Allowed run in first inning: 4-6 Totals: under 3-2-1

— Washington is 6-9 in its last 15 games.
— Nationals split its last eight road games.
— Over is 11-3-1 in their last 15 games.

Red Sox (10-21):
Bullpen game
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-0 Totals: 0-0

— Red Sox lost 12 of their last 16 games.
— Boston lost five of its last six home games.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.

Los Angeles @ Texas
Dodgers (24-9)
May is 0-1, 2.93 in his last three starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 5-1 Team in first 5 innings: 2-1-3
Allowed run in first inning: 0-6 Totals: under 4-2

— Dodgers won 13 of their last 15 games.
— LA won eight of their last ten road games.
— Over is 6-2-1 in their last nine road games.

Rangers (11-19):
Minor is 0-4, 7.06 in six starts this year, 0-1, 5.68 in three home starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-5 Team in first 5 innings: 1-5
Allowed run in first inning: 2-6 Totals: over 4-2

— Texas lost 10 of its last 11 games.
— Rangers are 8-8 at home this season.
— Over is 8-3 in their last 11 games.

Cleveland @ St Louis
Indians (19-12):
McKenzie allowed one run in six IP (80 PT) in winning his MLB debut.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-1
Allowed run in first inning: 0-1 Totals: under 1-0

— Cleveland won nine of its last 12 games overall.
— Indians won their last eight road games.
— Under is 21-8-2 in Cleveland games this season.

Cardinals (11-11)
Ponce de Leon is 0-2, 5.40 in three starts this year.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-2 Team in first 5 innings: 1-2
Allowed run in first inning: 2-3 Totals: under 2-1

— St Louis won five of its last seven games.
— Cardinals won seven of 12 home games this season.
— St Louis is 5-2 in series openers.
— Under is 4-2-2 in their last eight games.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-28-2020, 08:50 AM

MLB

Friday, August 28

Trend Report

Minnesota @ Detroit
Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Detroit's last 12 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 8 games at home

NY Mets @ NY Yankees
NY Mets
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Mets's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
NY Mets is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing at home against NY Mets
NY Yankees is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games at home

Minnesota @ Detroit
Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Detroit's last 12 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 8 games at home

Baltimore @ Toronto
Baltimore
Baltimore is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 7 games
Toronto
Toronto is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Baltimore
Toronto is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games

Atlanta @ Philadelphia
Atlanta
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

NY Yankees @ NY Mets
NY Yankees
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Mets
NY Yankees is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against NY Mets
NY Mets
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Mets's last 5 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
NY Mets is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing NY Yankees

Chi Cubs @ Cincinnati
Chi Cubs
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Chi Cubs's last 16 games on the road
Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 7 games
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chi Cubs

Tampa Bay @ Miami
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
Miami
Miami is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami's last 8 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

Washington @ Boston
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Washington's last 14 games
Boston
Boston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Boston's last 8 games when playing at home against Washington

LA Dodgers @ Texas
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Texas
LA Dodgers is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games
Texas
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Texas's last 7 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Texas's last 12 games when playing LA Dodgers

Kansas City @ Chi White Sox
Kansas City
Kansas City is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Chi White Sox
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing Chi White Sox
Chi White Sox
Chi White Sox is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Chi White Sox is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Pittsburgh @ Milwaukee
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Milwaukee
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 8 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

Cleveland @ St. Louis
Cleveland
Cleveland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing at home against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of St. Louis's last 11 games when playing Cleveland

San Diego @ Colorado
San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 10 of San Diego's last 11 games when playing on the road against Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games when playing Colorado
Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Colorado's last 11 games when playing at home against San Diego
Colorado is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing San Diego

Oakland @ Houston
Oakland
Oakland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Oakland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Houston
Houston
Houston is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Oakland

San Francisco @ Arizona
San Francisco
San Francisco is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing Arizona
Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Arizona's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing San Francisco

Seattle @ LA Angels
Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Seattle's last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Angels
Seattle is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
LA Angels
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Angels's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Angels's last 8 games when playing at home against Seattle

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-28-2020, 10:49 AM

GAMEDAY NETWORK

FREE MLB WINNER 8/28/20
Royals @ White Sox
Time: 8:10 PM EST
Free Pick: OVER 9.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-28-2020, 10:53 AM

Friday's Charles Town Pick 6 Analysis with 1/ST INDEX Assistance

August 28, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk
Friday’s mandatory payout in the jackpot Pick 6 literally adds juice to the Charles Town Classic card that features the track’s Grade 2 $600,000 annual main event in Race 11 of 12. The jackpot Pick 6 carryover of $121,973 provides extra incentive and value to horseplayers.

Selections provided by the 1/ST INDEX measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer.
1/ST handicapper Jeremy Plonk provides his human insights to the AI picks for the Charles Town jackpot Pick 6. All contenders who received a 10% or higher chance from the 1/ST INDEX in each race were included.

Race 7 – Dance To Bristol Stakes

2-Please Flatter Me (33% W // 56% P // 67% S)
6-Lady TNT (23% W // 40% P // 55% S)
3-Queen Nekia (15% W // 31% P // 48% S)
5-Figure it Out (10% W // 31% P // 48% S)

Jeremy’s Take: 6-Lady TNT won the Grade 3 Charles Town Oaks here last year, and trainer Joe Sharp is a Charles Town native son who has done remarkably well (16: 8-3-2) with his return trips since 2017. 7-A Bit of Both is classy and fast and should be able secure at least the 2-path from her outside draw going into the clubhouse turn. I would go 4-deep in the pick six, 2-5-6-7.

Race 8 – Robert R. Hilton Memorial Stakes

6-Little Menace (33% W // 56% P // 67% S)
4-Jack the Umpire (23% W // 40% P // 55% S)
7-Code Runner (15% W // 31% P // 48% S)
3-Paradise Pride (10% W // 31% P // 48% S)

Jeremy’s Take: 5-Relentless Dancer and 4-Jack the Umpire’s experience on a small track at Delta Downs and in tight-turn turf sprints could help their cause on Charles Town’s 6-furlong ‘bullring’ track. 1-Lebda’s jockey Luis Batista has strong numbers riding the rail post at 7 furlongs locally (16% wins, $1.78 ROI for every $1 bet). Jockey Christian Hiraldo wins 31% with horses shortening from 1-1/8 miles to 7 furlongs at Charles Town like 7-Code Runner. This is a spread race for me in the pick six, going 5-deep, 1-4-5-6-7.

Race 9 – Russell Road Stakes

2-Lewisfield (33% W // 55% P // 62% S)
5-Clubman (20% W // 36% P // 48% S)
8-Overdeliver (13% W // 27% P // 41% S)

Jeremy’s Take: Lewisfield trains daily at Charles Town, but rarely runs here (Maryland-bred a regular at Laurel for purse bonuses). His inside draw and early speed gives him an advantage over the late-running shippers. He’s the pick six single to this eye, and the 13-point spread in the 1/ST INDEX squares with that.

Race 10 – Grade 3 Charles Town Oaks

9-Gifted Heart (26% W // 43% P // 56% S)
11-Call on Mischief (16% W // 20% P // 35% S)
3-Tonalist’s Shape (10% W // 24% P // 35% S)
10-Hopeful Growth (10% W // 22% P // 29% S)

Jeremy’s Take: The algorithm gave 2-Boerne the snub. I think she’s more talented than many of these, but there is a tremendous early pace expected. That should set it up for strong finisher 10-Hopeful Growth under ace local pilot Arnaldo Bocachica, who should be midpack turning onto the backstretch. Call on Mischief will need someone to scratch as she’s stuck on the also-eligible list. This is a tough call between 3 and 4 deep in the pick six, taking 2-3-9-10.

Race 11 – Grade 2 Charles Town Classic

9-War Story (29% W // 43% P // 53% S)
4-Math Wizard (14% W // 29% P // 38% S)
10-Multiplier (11% W // 32% P // 43% S)
3-Mo Don’t No (10% W // 19% P // 31% S)
7-Sleepy Eyes Todd (10% W // 20% P // 28% S)

Jeremy’s Take: 9-War Story’s 15-point spread from first to second is the most from the 1/ST INDEX in any race of the pick six. Favorites have lost this race 6 straight years with an average winner at 10-1 odds, so favorite 4-Math Wizard’s deep-closing style may be played against with some confidence. Despite the 1/ST INDEX’s lack of love for 6-Mr. Money, I give him a big chance. Defending champ and local star 5-Runnin’toluvya doesn’t seem as strong this year as last, but is a danger. I’ll try to survive in the pick six with just 2-deep, 6-9.

Race 12 – Silvia Bishop Memorial Stakes

2-Star of Night (33% W // 55% P // 64% S)
6-Twirling Owen (21% W // 38% P // 52% S)
3-Boundtobebad (14% W // 29% P // 44% S)

Jeremy’s Take: The jockey-trainer tandem of Arnaldo Bocachica and Jeff Runco win 52% together with favorites in Charles Town stakes races since 2015, going 15-for-29. They’ve got the favorite here with 2-Star of Night. Trainer Anthony Farrier is only 1-for-11 over the last 5 years stretching out runners from 4-1/2 furlongs to longer Charles Town trips. He’ll try that with both 6-Twirling Owen and 4-Evan’s Chile. Let’s try to close the pick six with a second single, 2.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-28-2020, 10:53 AM

Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Kansas City w/Duffy +130 over Chicago Wsox

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-28-2020, 10:54 AM

Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR FRIDAY: WASHINGTON (Scherzer) -160 over Philadelphia

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-28-2020, 10:54 AM

Totals4U

Friday's Free Selection: San Francisco Giants/Arizona Diamondbacks under 9