Friday 8/28/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chris Jordan

My free play for Friday is on the Boston Red Sox plus a big price against the suddenly struggling Washington Nationals, who have lost three straight and are in Beantown for the weekend.

What's funny about these two teams is only one win separates them during a pair of disappointing seasons. Boston has 10 wins, the Nationals have 11.

And while I know the Nationals are handing the ball to Max Scherzer, lest we forget he just turned in a rather sketchy performance on Saturday, when he was tagged for four runs on seven hits over 4.2 innings. He took the no-decision against Miami, but I don't like what I've seen on the whole.

Scherzer opened the season by allowing four earned runs to the Yankees, then looked good in three straight against Toronto, and the Mets back-to-back. But in his last two starts, at Baltimore and vs. Miami, he has allowed nine earned runs in 11.2 innings and given up four home runs.

His ERA against A.L. East foes this season is 4.11. And when you look at what he's done against Boston in 11 lifetime starts, it gets worse. Scherzer is 4-5 with a 5.90 ERA against the Red Sox.

Considering all of that, I think we're looking at an inflated number and will take a shot with the home pup.

1* RED SOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chris Jordan

I'm going to lay the points with the Phoenix Mercury in the WNBA tonight, as the league opens action after taking a stand against social injustice the last two nights.

The Mercury just snapped a three-game losing streak with a one-point win against these same Washington Mystics on Sunday. And with Phoenix trying to chase a first-round playoff bye - something I don't think will happen - it has to start playing the same type of basketball it opened the wubble with.

Phoenix has had one game and several days to adjust to the absence of star center Brittney Griner, who missed last Friday’s game for personal reasons, and then left the bubble.

The Mercury still have the league's all-time GOAT Diana Taurasi to lead the offense, plus sophomores Brianna Turner and Alanna Smith stepping up to control the boards and protect the paint with Griner gone.

The defending champion Mystics just endured a brutal eight-game losing streak, and just don't have the same punch they did last season. Of course, they're missing Elena Delle Donne, who opted not to enter the wubble, and Kristi Toliver is no longer with the team. Washington doesn't look anything like the team that dominated play last season.

Lay the points here, as Phoenix will come out of this two-game hiatus feeling a bit more united and ready to make a run to the postseason.

1* MERCURY

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FRI, AUG 28TH - 4:05PM ET:
NEW YORK METS @ NEW YORK YANKEES PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS

NY Yankees - Game 1 Win Money Line
-150

Under 7.5 Game Totals
+100

Money Line Pick
Right-hander Michael Wacha is slated to start for the Mets in the first game of Friday’s Subway Series doubleheader. Wacha is making his first start in three weeks after a trip to the injured list with shoulder inflammation. The Yankees’ lineup is largely unfamiliar with him; only Aaron Judge and Brett Gardner have ever faced Wacha, with five at-bats between the two of them. Wacha’s first three starts as a Met haven’t been pretty: he’s allowed 10 runs in the 14 innings he’s pitched. The Yankees start Jordan Montgomery, looking to complete his first full MLB season since 2017. Montgomery has won two of four starts, and impressed against the Mets in a preseason exhibition last month. The Mets just barely avoided a sweep to the Marlins: after not scoring in Tuesday’s doubleheader, they blew a three-run lead for Jacob DeGrom before finally winning in their last at-bat on Wednesday. The Yankees haven’t had to sweat as much for most of their wins, so go with the team from the Bronx.


Over Under Pick
The Mets’ lineup is deep from top to bottom, and should put pressure on Montgomery, but they’re the worst team in the Major Leagues with runners in scoring position. If the Mets hit even the league average in clutch situations, they’d be first in the league in runs scored, and most likely in wins. But they haven’t been able to do that in 2020, and have always had trouble scoring runs against their crosstown rivals, no matter who was pitching. With a veteran pitcher like Wacha on the mound for the Mets, take the under.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FRI, AUG 28TH - 6:37PM ET:
BALTIMORE ORIOLES @ TORONTO BLUE JAYS PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS

TOR Blue Jays Win -1.5 Run Line
-105

Over 9.5 Game Totals
-110

Run Line Pick
Left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu has enjoyed his transition to the American League after finishing as last year’s runner-up for the National League Cy Young Award with the Dodgers. Ryu has allowed no more than one run in each of his past four starts, one of which was a six-inning effort against the Orioles last week. Ryu has yet to throw 100 pitches in a start, but that shouldn’t be an issue as the Blue Jays’ bullpen has been one of the best in the Major Leagues. The Orioles plan to start John Means, who has struggled mightily in 2020 after an outstanding rookie season last year. Means has yet to complete five innings in any of his four starts, and has allowed four home runs in just 10 2/3 innings on the season. He hasn’t faced Toronto yet this year and won his only start against the Jays last season. Without confidence, though, pitching in the major leagues is a tall task, and even more so against a young and energetic lineup like the Blue Jays with a veteran control pitcher on the mound. Take Toronto on the run line.


Over Under Pick
In the three weeks that it’s hosted Major League games, Sahlen Field has been a favorite ballpark of big-league hitters, with the left and right field foul poles both at just 325 feet. Ryu should be depended on for a quality start, but if a home run threat like Anthony Santander gets up with a man on base, what might otherwise be a fly ball could lead to a couple runs. Toronto’s lineup should put an onslaught on Means and the inconsistent Orioles’ bullpen, so take the over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FRI, AUG 28TH - 7:05PM ET:
ATLANTA BRAVES @ PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS

PHI Phillies Win Money Line
-155

Over 9.5 Game Totals
-105

Money Line Pick
Zack Wheeler is loving the great start he’s off to in 2020, not just because he’s helped the Phillies win games, but because he’s proving his former general manager wrong. Mets GM Brodie van Wagenen chose not to resign the right-hander this offseason, claiming he wasn’t worth the amount the Phillies offered him. Wheeler is 3-0 with a 2.76 ERA in his five starts, averaging more than six and a half innings per outing. His last start was also against the Braves, and he gave up just two runs in seven innings, striking out a career-high eight. The Phillies have won three in a row and will face lefty Robbie Erlin, against whom Wheeler also matched up last Saturday. Erlin has yet to advance past the fourth inning this season, and despite not facing them many times, has allowed home runs to Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto and Jean Segura. The Phillies’ bullpen is the least reliable part of their team, and they can take any lead and make it dangerously close, so avoid the run line and take Philadelphia on the money line.


Over Under Pick
These two pitchers faced off six days ago and the teams combined to score eleven runs in that game, mostly due to the Phillies’ bullpen woes (surprise!). Harper has three hits and three RBIs in five at-bats against Erlin, and Wheeler hasn’t exactly had it easy against the big bats in the Braves’ lineup. Freddie Freeman has eight hits in 18 career at-bats, and Ronald Acuna has homered twice. The Phillies will look to score early, the Braves should counter late, so take the over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FRI, AUG 28TH - 7:30PM ET:
WASHINGTON NATIONALS @ BOSTON RED SOX PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS

WAS Nationals Win -1.5 Run Line
-110

Over 9.5 Game Totals
+100

Run Line Pick
A day after the Nationals game was postponed with Philadelphia, they will travel to Fenway Park to take on the Red Sox. Both the Nationals and the Red Sox have gotten off to poor starts, but with the expanded playoffs, Washington may still have a chance to crawl their way back. As for Boston, they may have already dug too deep of a hole. Especially in a loaded American League, playoffs look extremely unlikely. Boston is set to call up Chris Mazza in this spot, who is 0-1 with an ERA of 6.35 this season. He has only made two appearances this season, allowing four runs over a total of 5.2 innings of work.

The Nationals counter with Max Scherzer, who is 2-1 on the season with an ERA of 4.31. This ERA is unusual for a guy with the quality of Scherzer, but he has just not been effective as of late. His last start saw him get roughed up by the Miami Marlins, allowing four runs over 4.2 innings. Scherzer has not fared well against the Red Sox though, posting a career record of 4-5 against them in 11 starts with an ERA of 5.90.

Even with Scherzer struggling, I trust him so much more than a guy who has not pitched in 11 days an one who did not look great when he did get his chance. I will back the Nationals to win this game comfortably as a lean.


Over Under Pick
Usually when Scherzer is on the mound, your first thought is an under, however due to his recent struggles and the inexperience of the Boston starter, I will be looking towards an over. Plus, there is the Boston bullpen, who is nothing special can almost never be trusted to close out a game without allowing some sort of damage. Matter of fact, the Nationals’ bullpen has had their fair share of struggles too, so we may actually see more runs in the later half of the game. Washington clearly has the better lineup here, but Scherzer has not exactly pitched well against Boston. Furthermore, he is 2-2 at Fenway Park with a 3.13 ERA, so he still tends to surrender some runs. I will back the over and will look for the Nationals to do the bulk of the work.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FRI, AUG 28TH - 8:05PM ET:
LOS ANGELES DODGERS @ TEXAS RANGERS PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS

LA Dodgers Win -1.5 Run Line
-145

Under 9.0 Game Totals
-110

Run Line Pick
As one of the only teams to play on Thursday, the Dodgers blasted their way to two wins in a doubleheader with the San Francisco. Game one was a 7-0 victory, while game two was a little closer, but still ended 2-0. The Dodgers will now travel to Texas to kick off an interleague series with Rangers. Los Angeles will be expected to start Dustin May in the series opener, who is 1-1 on the season with a 2.79 ERA. The one issue with May is he tends to get in trouble sometimes so it rises his pitch count rapidly. He has only pitched 6.0 innings in two starts, meaning he has had four starts where he could not make it past 5.0 innings. Right now the Dodgers rotation is a little thin, so they need him to improve in this area, so they bullpen does not have to do as much every night. Luckily they are facing a depleted Rangers team, who has not looked good.

For the Rangers, they will turn to Mike Minor, who is having the opposite season of what he was expecting. This year, he is 0-5 with an ERA of 6.75. His home splits really have done him any favors either, going 0-2 with a 4.97 ERA. He has allowed 10 runs in his last 9.2 innings of work and I do not see a loaded Dodgers’ lineup letting off here. I will gladly back the Dodgers on the run line to crush Minor.


Over Under Pick
The Dodgers have shown before they can eclipse a total all by themselves, but with May on the mound, I would be hesitant to solely trust Los Angeles even against Minor. The Rangers’ offense has just much too anemic and I am not even sure they will be able to score more than two runs. It is almost guaranteed that the Dodgers will score five or more, but I do not trust Texas to keep pace. For that reason, I am going to trust May to shut down the Texas’ bats and will lean under here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FRI, AUG 28TH - 8:10PM ET:
PITTSBURGH PIRATES @ MILWAUKEE BREWERS PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS

PIT Pirates Win +1.5 Run Line
-115

Under 9.0 Game Totals
-120

Run Line Pick
A day after sweeping the doubleheader against the St. Louis, the Pirates will try to ride that momentum into a series with the Milwaukee Brewers. Pittsburgh is set to start Derek Holland in this game and to say he is a below average pitcher would be an understatement. Holland is 1-1 on the season with an ERA of 6.17. His last start was actually against this Brewers team where he held them to one run over 5.0 innings, but certainly did not look great doing so. It took him a total of 99 pitches to even get through 5.0 innings, so he continues to be somewhat ineffective.

The Brewers had the opposite happen to them on Thursday as they were swept in their doubleheader against the Reds. Looking to halt their losing streak will be Corbin Burnes. He is 0-0 on the season and has a decent ERA of 3.42. This will be just his third start since rejoining the rotation. Burnes’ last start was less than ideal, allowing three runs over 5.1 innings to this Pittsburgh team.

With everything else going on, I am still not sure if the Brewers will be in the right mindset. They certainly did not play well yesterday against the Reds and I think we will continue to see them struggle. As a result, I am going to back the Pirates, but will do so on the run line just in case Milwaukee is able to win by a close margin.


Over Under Pick
Seeing what the Brewers did yesterday offensively, I am going to be looking towards an under. Also, remember that Pittsburgh’s offense is still not good an even though they had plenty of success in game one of the doubleheader on Thursday against the Cardinals, they scored just two runs in the night cap. Holland has been a little better as of late and I do not see him allowing more than maybe three or four. Same with Burnes, who can be serviceable at times and will likely keep the Pirates in check. This is still going to be a lean, but I will back the under and look for another lackluster offensive performance from both sides.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FRI, AUG 28TH - 8:10PM ET:
KANSAS CITY ROYALS @ CHICAGO WHITE SOX PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS

KC Royals Win Money Line
+125

Under 10.0 Game Totals
-115

Money Line Pick
The Royals will make the trip to the south side of Chicago after having Thursday as an official off-day. They will start Danny Duffy in this game, who is 2-2 with a 3.99 ERA. Personally, this is better than what I would have expected from Duffy and while he is by no means an ‘Ace’ he can generally provide a quality outing. Take his last two starts for example where he earned a win in both starts, allowing two runs over a combined 10.0 innings.

The White Sox will start Reynaldo Lopez in this game, who is 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA. He will be making his second start since returning from the injured list. Last time out he did a decent job against the Cubs, but still allowed two runs over 3.1 innings. Luckily he has a prolific offense behind him, but even then it still might not be enough if he allows some early runs.

I like how Duffy is pitching at the moment, and I still cannot trust Lopez, so a lean to the Royals run line would be my play here.


Over Under Pick
The White Sox have been very effective offensively as of late, having just scored 10 runs by themselves against the Pirates. The Royals almost seem to be hit or miss, but with Lopez on the mound, I am expecting them to have at least some success. Still, this total is set very high and seeing that the under is 19-9-1 in Royals’ games this year, I am going lean towards these pitchers being able to keep their opponents in check and will back an under as a lean.