Sunday 8/30/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-30-2020, 09:01 AM

Al Cimaglia: Hawthorne Racecourse Late Pick 4 Analysis

August 30, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Hawthorne Racecourse has a 16-race card scheduled for this evening. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 begins in Race 13. That sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool and it will be my focus.

The driver with the hottest hands on Saturday was Kyle Wilfong with five trips to the winner's circle. Conditioners Mike Brink, Steve Searle and Brett Wilfong led the trainers with two pictures each.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 13

2-Like A Captain (5/2)-Beaten chalk flattened out down the lane on 8/16. Seems to have turned the corner after a sick scratch on 7/19. Will look for more improvement for Team Wilfong in a wide-open affair.
4-Master Ken (4-1)-Team Leonard pupil is 1-8 and is a tough one to figure. Will use from this post, did pace the 2nd half in 55.3 coming home in 27.3 and the trip wasn't great. Like #2, will look for upswing to continue.
7-Incredible Bombay (12-1)-Was off almost the entire month of July and seems more determined in last 2 starts. Went a long mile in last start and did keep coming. Should offer a nice return and Warren may work a more efficient trip.
8-Da Peoples Panther (3-1)-Makes 2nd start for new barn and stayed on stride in last to finish 2nd by a noise. That was by far the best of 3 starts and was used a couple of times. Paced in 1.55 so could be over bet and it remains to be seen if minds manners again.
9-Heartland Dandy (15-1)-Makes 1st start after a sharp qualifier in 1.54.3 and raced close to the lead throughout. Post draw doesn't help chances but will improve the price. Will take a swing with a fresh horse who could surprise versus this crew.

Race 14

4-All Profit (9-1)-One of 2 Brink trainees (4-7) and this 3-year-old steps up after a nice win in a NW2. Will use here and leave the program chalk #9 off my ticket. Will look for more value as the morning line choice looks vulnerable.
7-Pick Me Upper (12-1)-Broke maiden in 5th try and had suffered from breaking issues but hopples appeared to help in last. Drew off by 9-lengths and was wrapped up. Maybe there is more in the tank and should be a solid price.
8-Rockyroad Aldo (7/2)-Drops out of straight Opens and lands in a spot to shine. Although this post will make it more of a challenge, 4-year-old looks like the one to beat.

Race 15

2-Pootie Cat (5-1)-Finished 3rd to #8 last week starting from post 7 and taking the long way around. Now gets the post edge and that should make some difference. But camera-shy filly is only 2-20 lifetime and 1-13 here, but should be in the hunt throughout.
8-Cassie Marie's T T (5/2)-Drew off by almost 4 lengths last week at this class from post 4 at odds of 1-2. This post draw will make it more difficult but did beat 6 from this crew in last. A major player with a smooth journey and should be bet hard again.

Race 16

1-Rollin Coal (6-1)-Often disappoints, whether it is a questionable drive or just lacking the will to cross the wire first. But this appears to be a simple recipe. If #2 is bet down Wilfong may look to get the top early. In that case Franco could get a 2-hole ride and be able to rally late.
2-It's Time For Fun (5/2)-Went off at 2/5 last week versus better and broke while following a 21-1 shot around the last turn. The longshot seemed to stall and Wilfong had a lot of horse and couldn't check him. Drops here and will probably look to get the top sooner. Usually minds manners but will likely be bet hard and offer little value.

0.50 Late Pick 4

2,4,7,8,9/4,7,8/2,8/1,2
Total Bet=$30

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-30-2020, 09:04 AM

Gulfstream Mandatory Rainbow 6 Picks with 1/ST INDEX Assistance

August 30, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk
Saturday’s mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 at Gulfstream is part of a 4-stakes card that’s one of summer’s best in South Florida. Races 7-12 comprise the sequence and the kickoff leg is slated to begin around 3:06 pm ET with a carryover of $349,328. You can bet the Gulfstream Park full-card and Rainbow 6 on the 1/ST BET app.

Selections provided by the 1/ST INDEX measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer.

1/ST handicapper Jeremy Plonk provides his human insights to the AI picks for the Gulfstream Park Rainbow 6. All contenders who received a 10% or higher chance from the 1/ST INDEX in each race were included.

Race 7 – claiming

1-Itsmyluckygirl (25% W // 40% P // 52% S)
6-Ima Daredevil (15% W // 32% P // 45% S)
5-Poseidon’s Princess (11% W // 29% P // 44% S)
12-Lemoncita (10% W // 18% P // 25% S)

Jeremy’s Take: This is a balanced race to start, so get some coverage. The algorithm and I agree on 1-6 at a minimum, but I’ll take 1-2-3-6-11.

Race 8 – Proud Man Stakes

7-Fulmini (21% W // 28% P // 42% S)
1-Hot Blooded (19% W // 47% P // 57% S)
3-Hail Rich Legacy (14% W // 30% P // 42% S)
6-Savatiano (14% W // 30% P // 53% S)

Jeremy’s Take: Man and machine agree on 1-7 at the top of this ticket. But the percentages show it’s balanced with only a 2-point spread on the top pair and only 7 points among the top four – the closest margins in the Rainbow 6. I’ll spread a bit in this race with a quartet, 1-7-8-9.

Race 9 – Susan’s Girl Stakes

5-Princess Secret (33% W // 55% P // 68% S)
6-Oh Deborah (22% W // 49% P // 73% S)
1-Freak (17% W // 35% P // 52% S)
3-Alluramore (11% W // 23% P // 31% S)

Jeremy’s Take: The 1/ST INDEX gives a surprising snub to 4-Go Jo Jo Go, 21-1 upset winner of the Desert Vixen. Perhaps the data agrees that lightning doesn’t strike twice? I’ll go 3-deep with 5-4-3.

Race 10 – Sharp Susan Stakes

5-Spanish Loveaffair (30% W // 44% P // 55% S)
4-Director’s Cut (14% W // 23% P // 40% S)
2-Can’t Buy Love (12% W // 25% P // 36% S)
1-Special Inclusion (10% W // 25% P // 29% S)
3-Beach Chick (10% W // 16% P // 34% S)

Jeremy’s Take: The 16-point spread from first to second is the widest in the Rainbow 6, and I’m in total agreement with the algorithm here. This is all about 5-Spanish Loveaffair. Single 5.

Race 11 – Affirmed Stakes

6-Breeze On Bye (32% W // 51% P // 58% S)
1-Gatsby (17% W // 33% P // 45% S)
4-Big Daddy Dave (12% W // 24% P // 37% S)
5-Seazan (12% W // 27% P // 42% S)

Jeremy’s Take: While many may be singling the favorite morning line favorite 6-Breeze On By, and the 15-point spread in this race is a solid endorsement of that, I’ll be using a trio of runners. Give 4-Big Daddy Dave an upset shot as the distance here at 7 furlongs could be the tripping point for the favorite. Use 4-6-1.

Race 12 – claiming

9-Duchossois (23% W // 43% P // 47% S)
7-Policy Option (17% W // 24% P // 37% S)
10-Atakan (13% W // 26% P // 37% S)
6-Time for Trouble (12% W // 24% P // 32% S)

Jeremy’s Take: With a 12-1 choice on the artificial intelligence top pick 9-Duchossois, you can’t argue with a price to close the card. My handicapping focus was on the top pair in the morning line, 6-Time for Trouble and 7-Policy Plan, a less creative decision. My plays amount to a $72 ticket if there are no scratches.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-30-2020, 09:05 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk: My Late Pick 4 Ticket Sunday at Saratoga

August 30, 2020 | By Jerry Shottenkirk
Fillies and mares have the spotlight Sunday at Saratoga in the Grade 3 Shuvee, and the 1 1-8th-mile race on the main track could go many different ways.

But in the interest of staying away from a cost-prohibitive Late Pick 4 ticket, the list of contenders is trimmed down to three on this $72 suggested ticket.

Nonna Madeline, Another Broad and Royal Flag appear to be headed in the right direction in their career and should be able to mix it up nicely going the nine furlongs.

The Late Pick 4 runs during races 7-10, and the Shuvee is race nine on the card and the third in the sequence.

Here’s a look at the Late Pick 4 races:

Race 7 (4:40 p.m. ET, allowance optional claiming

SHORT POUR lacks consistency but her best races make you take notice. Saez on the front end is a plus and we know can happen under that circumstance.

BARREL OF DESTINY tired in his first one here but had won three straight going into that one. Does well playing the role of stalker.

PECATONICA was up in time two races back and then racing a credible third. She improved position against a slow pace. She could get a better scenario here.

Race 8 (5:14 p.m. ET, allowance)

INSIDE INFO ran fourth but dug in after losing the lead. Worth a look after that effort.

GANDY DANCING was runner-up in a decent race last out and can improve with experience.

HARRIS BAY Came off a second in a stakes race with a third here in his first in seven months. Has a decent closing move and likely will improve of his first off the layoff.

MIDNIGHT WHISKEY can get brave on the front end and doesn’t have many options other than going for the lead from the outside. Could carry his speed today, much like he did in a maiden win two races back.

Race 9 (5:46 p.m. ET, Gr. 3 Shuvee Stakes)

NONNA MADELINE was a clear winner in a restricted stakes race and steps into Grade 3 territory. She’s graded stakes-placed and can fire a decent shot on the front end of this one.

ANOTHER BROAD made a belated move for third and can be close to this pace. Well-connected mare is a legit player.

ROYAL FLAG won three straight and then was third in the G3 Molly Pitcher. Troublesome on or near the front end and usually has some closing punch.

Race 10 (6:18 p.m. ET, maiden special weights)

MODERN SCIENCE moved strongly for a narrow lead and then was caught late. Will be a battler in his second local start.

SOL DEL SUR rallied mildly in his first one and Mott runners usually improve after their initial appearance. Royally bred and a late threat.

MILLEAN made his first start and had a strong work last week. Braced for his first one and likely will be a player on the front end.

Here’s the $72 suggested ticket:
7) #1 Short Pour, #2 Barrel of Destiny, #4 Pecatonica, #12 Blue Atlas.
8) #3 Inside Info, #4 Gandy Dancing, #8 Harris Bay, #9 Midnight Whiskey.
9) #6 Nonna Madeline, #8 Another Broad, #9 Royal Flag.
10) #3 Modern Science, #5 Sol Del Sur, #6 Millean.
50-cent Late Pick 4: 1-2-4-12 with 3-4-8-9 with 6-8-9 with 3-5-6. ($72)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-30-2020, 09:07 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Saratoga - Race #6

#5 Zonic	Slight class dropper was a fine 3rd off the Noda claim off the break, goes for a barn having a huge meet, and should get some speed to rally into; mows them down in the lane.
#7 Local Hero	Freakish Aqu winner laps this field if he runs back to that Feb. run, but he's been off since, and meets some other speed, not to mention he'll be overbet too; trying to beat on top.
#2 Summer Bourbon	Stalker has been running well against NYBs of late and was facing tons better for 40k the last time he tried open, and he should trip out nicely off the speed; would be no surprise.
Race Summary	That 4-1 ML seems fair on the pick, and Noda can do no wrong at the meet either, so play him to win and place, and to kick off the late Pk5 as well, since this is a deep race, and a win in the $10 range would add plenty of value to both sequences.

Saratoga - Race #8

#8 Harris Bay	Dangerous sort got the tightener out of the way last time, with a fast 3rd, should only move forward off that, and will not be favored; love his chances here.
#4 Gandy Dancing	Brown runner beat the pick last time when 2nd and certainly hits hard, but he had a recency edge that day, which is gone here, at a short price too; second-best.
#7 Three Jokers	Pace player will be in front of the top-2 and would be a threat if he shakes clear, but with other speed that's unlikely to happen; comes unglued in the lane.
Race Summary	You won't get rich on the 8 but that 3-1 ML seems fair, and with the 4 back you know he'll take all the money, so play the pick aggressively to win and place, and get some added value by keying him in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since he looks primed to throw down a lifetime best here.

Saratoga - Race #9

#7 Lucky Move	Stalker faced a nice one at this trip in the GII at Del Park, catches a group with plenty of speed, and will be a square price too; upset special.
#9 Royal Flag	Stalker was a meek 3rd in her stakes debut at Mth, so she needs to step up here, and the expected pace may help her do it; looms very large.
#6 Nonna Madeline	Pace presser dueled throughout and beat the 5 over the track/distance last time, but regression off that huge run may be coming; tread lightly.
Race Summary	The pace and the price should both be right with the 7, and she showed last time she's got some talent, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since she may fall through the wagering cracks, which means a win would add plenty of value to both sequences.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-30-2020, 09:08 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mountaineer - Race #1

#4 Bungalow Flash	Finisher woke up going long in those last two runs when rained over to the main track, and he looks like the one to beat on the move to the turf.
#6 Princess Power	Has had 16 chances, so he's tough to take on top, but the two local turf tries were both pretty good, and he has now run two pretty good races in a row for this barn.
#1 Good Form	Turned in a decent sprint effort over the local lawn, and now he'll stretch back out around two turns. Not impossible here.
Race Summary	Bungalow Flash should be tough in this spot if he transfers his form to the turf, and I'll try to get Princess Power in the exacta with that guy.

Mountaineer - Race #3

#6 Twelve Rocks	Might offer a fair price on the step up to try winners today, and she's worth another look on the grass against the local company.
#5 Echo Alpha Six	Tactical player can get the right kind of trip, but he has struggled in the past at this kind of level, and he might be overbet here.
#9 Frost Proof	All or nothing speed player will try to go for it from a wide draw, and he did earn his maiden win over the local course last year.
Race Summary	Twelve Rocks didn't turn in big efforts in his two tries with better in Kentucky, but he found the local crew to his liking last time out when scoring a maiden win on the main.

Mountaineer - Race #7

#2 Comica	Short price looks like the most logical single on the card for the multi-race players, as she exits a useful comeback run going short and should get a really nice trip while meeting a suspect group.
#5 Prissy Sissy	Has some pace to use at a huge price here, and maybe she'll find the front end and accidentally stick around for an underneath piece today.
#4 Teatoe	Best stuff would give the top choice a run for her money, and she does have a little bit of upside in this second start off the layoff.
Race Summary	Comica and Teatoe probably shouldn't be as far apart on the tote board as the 4/5 and 5/1 morning line prices would indicate, but Comica has been in with better groups than this and meets almost nothing at all in here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-30-2020, 09:08 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #6

#4 Reluctant Bride	Won two of four, including her last one, when she was very sharp in an allowance optional win; has been in two graded stakes and has what it takes to prevail here.
#5 Crumb Bun	Ran off to an easy win in a race that came off the turf and has taken two of her last three; finishes well.
#6 Don't Get Khozy	Ran on for second last time out and can be effective if the pace is fast; can come running.
Race Summary	Reluctant Bride has been sharp in half her races and the only times she was ineffective came when she was in graded events. Fits nicely and can secure her third win.

Gulfstream Park - Race #9

#11 Star Juancho	Was an easy winner last time and steps up in class; he's never been on turf but his pedigree suggests he should be able to handle it. Makes first off the claim by the Garoffalo stable.
#6 Marcelino	Came from just off a fast pace and was up in time going this distance last out; is a five-time winner over the course.
#4 I'm Cardinal	Set the pace and finished third in a race that came off the turf; easily won the last time he was on turf.
Race Summary	Star Juancho has some good races on his form and should be able to handle this level; gets his chance to go on grass.

Gulfstream Park - Race #10

#7 Lil Miss Hotshot	Has a win and five seconds in her last six and ran well in last time in what was her first local start; needed that race after six months off and can take them to the wire here.
#2 Midtown Rose	Tired in her last two and can get a good run along the inside; winless since December but has a shot at it.
#6 Faith N Hope	Ran on well for second at this level last time out and his connections have abandoned the turf for now; low percentage on wins but can hang on for a piece of it.
Race Summary	Lil Miss Hotshot just missed in her first local start after racing in the Mid-Atlantic tracks; doesn't have a bad race on her form since last October and fits nicely in this spot.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-30-2020, 10:49 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park

Gulfstream Park - Race 6	$1 Daily Double / $2 Quinella / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $.50 Bet 3 (Races 6-7-8) $.20 Rainbow Pick 6 (Races 6-11)
Stakes • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 98 • Purse: $60,000 • Post: 2:34P
ESCENA S. - FILLIES AND MARES, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. FREE NOMINATION BY FRIDAY, AUGUST 14. $600 TO ENTER. AFTER PAYMENT OF 1% TO ALL OWNERS OF HORSE FINISHING SIXTH THROUGH LAST, 62% OF THE REMAINING PURSE SHALL BE PAID TO THE OWNER OF THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 10% TO THIRD, 5 % TO FOURTH AND 3% TO FIFTH, WEIGHT: THREE YEARS OLD 122 LBS.; OLDER 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A STAKES AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE DECEMBER 1, 2019 OR THREE RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE-BRED ALLOWANCE, 2 LBS.; TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE-BRED ALLOWANCE, 4 LBS. STARTERS TO BE NAMED BY THE USUAL TIME OF CLOSING. SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATIONS MAY BE MADE AT TIME OF ENTRY. ALL FEES SHALL BE PAID PRIOR TO THE START OF THE RACE.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * HELPING LISA D: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an " L" designation. CRUMB BUN: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. BELLA CIAO: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. ESTILO TALENTOSO: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
2	HELPING LISA D	4/1	5/1
5	CRUMB BUN	5/2	5/1
3	BELLA CIAO	9/2	6/1
1	ESTILO TALENTOSO	3/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	ESTILO TALENTOSO	1	3/1	Stalker	92	92	79.2	85.4	76.9
5	CRUMB BUN	5	5/2	Stalker	95	97	75.8	92.9	88.4
2	HELPING LISA D	2	4/1	Trailer	100	101	73.8	87.0	82.5
3	BELLA CIAO	3	9/2	Trailer	103	89	68.4	89.6	84.1
4	RELUCTANT BRIDE	4	5/1	Trailer	87	83	50.2	72.0	64.0
6	DON'T GET KHOZY	6	6/1	Trailer	91	91	48.7	72.1	61.1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-30-2020, 10:49 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Ellis Park

Ellis Park - Race 4	Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Double / $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6)
Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 84 • Purse: $46,200 • Post: 2:14P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. (PREFERENCE TO HORSES THAT HAVE NOT STARTED FOR $20,000 OR LESS IN LAST 5 STARTS).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. SOFT N LOVELY is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SOFT N LOVELY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. TIZSO AWESOME: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Hors e has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
8	SOFT N LOVELY	5/2	2/1
1	TIZSO AWESOME	9/2	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	SOFT N LOVELY	8	5/2	Front-runner	0	0	82.5	58.8	54.8
3	SHININGDOWNONDALIS	3	20/1	Front-runner	0	0	76.8	31.3	23.8
4	KISS MO	4	20/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	68.2	52.9	47.9
1	TIZSO AWESOME	1	9/2	Alternator/Trailer	81	68	45.5	55.9	52.4

Unknown Running Style: MISS MESS (4/1) [Jockey: Geroux Florent - Trainer: Maker Michael J], TREATY OF PARIS (3/1) [Jockey: Beschizza Adam - Trainer: Asmussen Steven M], ZANADU (6/1) [Jockey: Hernandez Jr Brian J - Trainer: Stewart Dallas], BEAUTIFULS

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-30-2020, 10:51 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Century Mile

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $7700 Class Rating: 66

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000. ALBERTA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $6,250.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 WINGS OF CHANGE 8/1
# 4 TROOPER JENNY 2/1
# 3 MOE'SANNIE 5/1

WINGS OF CHANGE gets the edge as the bet in here and is a decent value-based wager given the 8/1 line. Could best this group here, showing very good figures of late. With Malvaez aboard her, this filly will probably be able to break out early in here. Had one of the most respectable speed figures of this group of horses in this race in her last contest. TROOPER JENNY - Looks decent versus this group and will probably be one of the early speedsters. Could best this field based on the speed fig - 56 - of her last affair. MOE'SANNIE - Look for a very strong pace improvement from this horse who enters on Lasix today. The speed rating of 52 from her last contest looks respectable in here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-30-2020, 10:52 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Chippewa Downs - Race #5 - Post: 3:30pm - Stakes - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 71 NDTA-North Dakota Maturity S.

Rating:

#1 TRICKY KID (ML=3/1)
#4 CLASSICAL ACE (ML=5/2)

TRICKY KID - Sneaky speed on this one. He'll probably be stalking thoroughbreds on the back side, then demolish them down the stretch. Have to make this horse a solid contender; he comes off a strong outing on August 15th. CLASSICAL ACE - This colt is in nice form, having run a nice race on Aug 15th, finishing third. Trainer, Nelson, has been deliberate with this colt off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. Here is a true horse for the course. Loves the track here at Chippewa Downs.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 KREWS PASS (ML=8/5), #2 ROCKIN CREEK (ML=5/1),

KREWS PASS - This gelding ran his top speed figure in some time on the dirt in a sprint race. There may be a performance bounce today. ROCKIN CREEK - This colt hasn't had any strong victories in short distance events in the last 60 days.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #1 TRICKY KID on the win end if we get at least 7/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-30-2020, 10:53 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Monmouth Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $59375 Class Rating: 77

FOR REGISTERED NEW JERSEY BREDS MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 LIL MISS MOPPET 8/5
# 9 COOL STUFF 3/1
# 5 ODDSONDUSTYMILLER 10/1

I've got to go with LIL MISS MOPPET. Sound average Equibase Speed Figures in dirt sprint races make this pony a key contender. Lopez has a win percent of 20 over the last 30 days. Will probably come out solid - I have liked the way this filly has moved promptly to the lead recently. COOL STUFF - Solid average speed figures in dirt sprint races make this equine a contender. Make a note that this one runs with second time Lasix today. ODDSONDUSTYMILLER - She looks respectable in this slot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the midpoint. Should be given consideration - I like the numbers from the last race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-30-2020, 10:53 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Prairie Meadows - Race #4 - Post: 5:19pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 87

Rating:

#4 MATCHLOCK (ML=5/1)
#5 CAESARTHERULER (ML=2/1)
#2 ITSALLABOUTYOU (ML=4/1)

MATCHLOCK - Have to make this gelding a serious competitor; he comes off a strong effort on Aug 8th. This jock/conditioner duo has been producing a very positive ROI, right at +62. Racing over a familiar track, where he has won multiple times before, I have to put this horse at the top of my list of choice plays. CAESARTHERULER - Ran last time out against much better horses at Prairie Meadows. The move down in class should suit him well. Gelding's last workout was second fastest of the day for the distance. This gelding's last speed fig is good enough to score here, I'll wager on him right back this time out. ITSALLABOUTYOU - This gelding is in fine form. Ran second on August 7th. Look at this pattern of improvement. 70/75/77 are the last 3 Equibase speed figures.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 GO FOR JIM (ML=3/1), #3 BAGPIPES (ML=6/1),

GO FOR JIM - Speed kills. Plenty of early zip in this event compromises this animal's efforts. Mediocre speed figure last out at Prairie Meadows at 1 mile 70 yards. Don't think this less than sharp equine will improve too much in today's event. BAGPIPES - If today's affair shapes up right, all the front runners will force a ferocious speed battle early. Too bad this horse is one of those front runners. Tough to take this vulnerable equine at these odds after the finish position (fourth) in the last race. Garnered a disappointing speed rating in the last race in a $5,000 Claiming race on Aug 15th. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that figure.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#4 MATCHLOCK is the play if we get odds of 4/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4,5] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[2,4,5] with [2,4,5] with [2,4,5,6,7] with [2,4,5,6,7] Total Cost: $36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-30-2020, 10:54 AM

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Saratoga

08/30/20, SAR, Race 6, 4.04 ET
08/30/20,SAR,6,6 1/2F [Dirt] 1:13:04 CLAIMING. Purse $32,000. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race In 2020 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $12,500 (Maiden and Claiming races for $10,000 or less not considered in allowances) (1.5% Aftercare Assessment due at time of claim otherwise claim will be void).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	5	Zonic	4-1	Ortiz. Jr. I	Noda Orlando	JT	50.00	1.56/$1
099.6597	3	O Shea Can U See	9/2	Lezcano J	Rice Linda	C	50.00	1.56/$1
099.6527	2	Summer Bourbon	7/2	Alvarado J	Rodriguez Rudy R.	E	50.00	1.56/$1
099.1503	9	Our Honor	15-1	Cardenas L	Laxmeter Daniel	F	47.83	1.36/$1
097.4364	7	Local Hero	6-1	Hernandez B	Gullo Gary P.		29.20	0.86/$1
096.9854	6	Square Shooter	6-1	Saez L	Lynch Natalia	S	50.00	1.56/$1
096.8331	4	Lazarus Project	6-1	Carmouche K	Levine Bruce N.		47.83	1.36/$1
094.7255	10	Big Mountain	10-1	Franco M	Atras Rob	L	50.00	1.56/$1
092.9858	8	Vicar's Legend	15-1	Gutierrez R	Avila A. C.	W	33.82	1.07/$1
090.4586	1	Tale of Mist	30-1	Luzzi M J	Persaud Randi		47.83	1.36/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 5.56, ROI 0.42/$1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-30-2020, 10:55 AM

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Del Mar

08/30/20, DMR, Race 4, 3.40 PT
08/30/20,DMR,4,5F [Turf] 00:54:04 STARTER ALLOWANCE. Purse $34,000 (plus up to $4,080 CBOIF - California Bred Owner Fund). FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $50,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 122 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since May 30, 2020 Allowed 2 lbs. (Rail at 18 feet).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	1	Miss Fraulein	5-1	Cedillo A	Miller Peter	TFEL	41.82	1.50/$1
099.1654	4	Brittle and Yoo	3-1	Rispoli U	Sadler John W.		41.82	1.50/$1
097.9382	8	Sugar Pickel	7/2	Prat F	Eurton Peter	J	41.82	1.50/$1
097.3824	6	Queensbeccaandjane	4-1	Franco G	Stute Gary	S	41.82	1.50/$1
097.3278	3	With This Vow	5-1	Van Dyke D	Ellis Ronald W.		41.82	1.50/$1
096.6109	2	Acai	10-1	Gutierrez M	O'Neill Doug F.	W	41.82	1.50/$1
096.3910	7	Roses and Candy(b+)	8-1	Figueroa H	McAnally Ronald L.		41.82	1.50/$1
093.1675	5	Dairy Kid	20-1	Centeno A	Lucas Robert J.	C	41.82	1.50/$1

* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 25.00, ROI 0.92/$1
If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	1	Miss Fraulein	5-1	Cedillo A	Miller Peter	TFEL	13.16	1.87/$1
098.7012	4	Brittle and Yoo	3-1	Rispoli U	Sadler John W.		10.87	1.55/$1
097.6895	7	Roses and Candy(b+)	8-1	Figueroa H	McAnally Ronald L.		30.06	1.17/$1
097.6428	3	With This Vow	5-1	Van Dyke D	Ellis Ronald W.		30.06	1.17/$1
097.5431	6	Queensbeccaandjane	4-1	Franco G	Stute Gary	S	10.87	1.55/$1
097.1829	8	Sugar Pickel	7/2	Prat F	Eurton Peter	J	10.87	1.55/$1
096.9818	2	Acai	10-1	Gutierrez M	O'Neill Doug F.	W	30.06	1.17/$1
092.4788	5	Dairy Kid	20-1	Centeno A	Lucas Robert J.	C	31.00	1.34/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 28.57, ROI 1.21/$1