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L.A. LAKERS -13
PORTLAND @ L.A. LAKERS | 8/26 | 9:00 PM EDT
The Blazers are facing an uphill battle to stay alive in this series with Damian Lillard (knee) out. They have lost two of the last three games by at least 20 points with Lillard on the floor as the Lakers have asserted their dominance following a loss in Game 1. With LeBron James and Anthony Davis ready to close out this series in order to game some added rest, look for the Lakers to win Game 5 going away.
119-71-3 IN LAST 193 NBA ATS PICKS | +4090
14-7-1 IN LAST 22 LAL ATS PICKS | +625
ORLANDO +14
ORLANDO @ MILWAUKEE | 8/26 | 4:00 PM EDT
12:29 PM
The Magic have lost the past three games by 15, 14 and 15, so on first glance this number seems about right. But it took a 37-point fourth quarter by the Bucks to cover Game 4. I'll trust Steve Clifford to have his team ready to fight until the end, and I'll look for a much stronger game from Evan Fournier (4 of 14 in Game 4). Take the points.
118-98-3 LAST 219 NBA SIDES | +1029
12-3 IN LAST 15 ORL ATS PICKS | +865
OAKLAND -135
OAKLAND @ TEXAS | 8/26 | 8:05 PM EDT
11:52 AM
The Rangers have lost nine of 10 entering Wednesday's game versus 21-10 Oakland. The A's have won five of Mike Fiers' six starts. Texas' Kolby Allard sports a 7.82 ERA and was shelled in his last outing at Seattle. Lay it again.
30-16 IN LAST 46 MLB PICKS | +974
25-14 IN LAST 39 OAK ML PICKS | +817
L.A. DODGERS -245
L.A. DODGERS @ SAN FRANCISCO | 8/26 | 9:45 PM EDT
9:37 AM
Since last September, the Dodgers are 14-0 when they are on the road off a road game and facing a starter with an ERA of higher than 3.30, winning by an average of 3.69 runs. The Giants beat Clayton Kershaw 5-4 on Aug. 8 but this is no reason to play on them here as they are 0-12 as home dogs of more than +130 when their opponent’s starter has same-season revenge, losing by an average of 4.75 runs per game. We are on the Dodgers.
38-19-1 IN LAST 58 MLB PICKS | +907
8-4 IN LAST 12 LAD ML PICKS | +60
OAKLAND -140
OAKLAND @ TEXAS | 8/26 | 8:05 PM EDT
9:36 AM
The Athletics are 10-0 in franchise history with Mike Fiers as a favorite in August, winning by an average of 4.5 runs per game, and they are a reliable 9-0 as a favorite after a game in which they drew five-plus walks. Texas will adopt a defeatist attitude here. The Rangers are 0-9 this month as dogs after their bullpen allowed multiple runs and an uninspired 0-13 when their starter went fewer than four innings in his last start, getting beaten by an average of 5.46 runs with every loss by multiple runs – and they were the favorite in four of those games. Oakland drives in the stake.
38-19-1 IN LAST 58 MLB PICKS | +907
2-1 IN LAST 3 OAK ML PICKS | +60
CHI. CUBS -130
CHI. CUBS @ DETROIT | 8/26 | 7:10 PM EDT
9:34 AM
The Tigers are 0-17 at home off a game as a dog in which they struck out their opponent at least 10 times and 0-14 SU at home after a game as a home dog in which they scored in more innings than their opponent. The Cubs, on the other hand, are a perfect 20-0 before game 90 as a -130-plus favorite when they are off a game as a road favorite in which they scored in fewer innings than their opponent, winning by an average of 4.69 runs per game. We make the Cubs the play.
38-19-1 IN LAST 58 MLB PICKS | +907
8-0 IN LAST 8 CHC ML PICKS | +810
5-1 IN LAST 6 DET ML PICKS | +240
TAMPA BAY -210
TORONTO @ TAMPA BAY | 8/24 | 3:10 PM EDT
MON 8/24
The Rays are 9-0 as home favorites after they allowed six or fewer hits and 9-0 with Blake Snell at home when they won his last two starts. Note that Snell has averaged 6.30 innings of work with 9.00 strikeouts and 1.56 walks while allowing an average of 0.89 runs. The average final score has been 6.00 to 1.44 runs. As for the Jays, we see that they are 0-14 as dogs of more than +150 after a game as a road dog in which they hit more home runs than their opponent. In their lone active date so far this season, they were shut out. The Rays are loaded with value at this number.
38-19-1 IN LAST 58 MLB PICKS | +907
3-0 IN LAST 3 TOR ML PICKS | +300
OVER 6.5
N.Y. YANKEES @ ATLANTA | 8/26 | 4:10 PM EDT
1:25 PM
Ian Anderson is one of the Braves top prospects, but he will be making the first start of his career tonight. Not only will he have the debut jitters, but he is facing Gerrit Cole and the Yankees so he will have to pitch well to give them a chance. Gerritt Cole is 4-0 with a 2.75 ERA but Ian Anderson shouldn’t go too deep. The Braves lineup is back and full healthy, look for a decent amount of runs in this game.
10-2 IN LAST 12 MLB O/U PICKS | +785
ST. LOUIS -160
KANSAS CITY @ ST. LOUIS | 8/26 | 8:15 PM EDT
1:25 PM
Dakota Hudson has pitched well since the Cardinals covid break, throwing 8.2 total innings and only giving up one run. Jake Junis has only made two starts this season, and he has given up two runs and two walks in less than five innings pitched in both games. The Cardinals are much better at home at 6-3 while the Royals are 6-11 on the road, look for the Cardinals to take this series.
6-3 IN LAST 9 MLB PICKS | +340
18-12 IN LAST 30 STL ML PICKS | +279
OAKLAND -135
OAKLAND @ TEXAS | 8/26 | 8:05 PM EDT
1:24 PM
Mike Fiers is 3-1 with a 5.81 ERA this season, although the Athletics have won five of the six games he started this season. Kolby Allard is 0-2 with a 7.82 ERA in four starts on the season, and he failed to make it out of the first inning in his last start. The Athletics hit lefties well and the Rangers have won just one of their last 10 games, take the As.
6-3 IN LAST 9 MLB PICKS | +340
14-11 IN LAST 25 TEX ML PICKS | +96
TAMPA BAY -160
BALTIMORE @ TAMPA BAY | 8/26 | 6:40 PM EDT
1:24 PM
Trevor Richards will be making his sixth appearance of the season, and he allowed two runs in three innings in his most recent start. Asher Wojciechowski is 1-3 with a 4.84 ERA this season but he has yet to make it thru the sixth inning this season. This will end up being a bullpen battle for the second half of the game where the Rays have the advantage. The Rays are 8-2 in their last 10 games while the Orioles have lost seven of 10.
6-3 IN LAST 9 MLB PICKS | +340
WASHINGTON +101
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON | 8/26 | 6:05 PM EDT
1:23 PM
Patrick Corbin is starting for the Nats and he is 2-2 with a 3.99 ERA on the season. In his career, he is 5-2 with a 3.18 ERA in nine career starts against the Phillies. Aaron Nola is 2-2 with a 3.10 ERA on the season but he is coming off a 2.2 inning, four earned run performance in his last outing. In his career, he is 4-6 with a 4.22 ERA in 19 career starts against the Nationals. Take the Nats at home with plus money.
6-3 IN LAST 9 MLB PICKS | +340
15-5 IN LAST 20 WAS ML PICKS | +1200
SEATTLE +193
SEATTLE @ SAN DIEGO | 8/26 | 9:10 PM EDT
My model likes the Mariners to win this game against the Padres 38.83 percent of the time Tuesday. At a +175 payout, bettors are looking at a solid value play with an edge of roughly 3-4 percent, so this price provides even more value.
HOUSTON -165
OKLAHOMA CITY @ HOUSTON | 8/26 | 6:30 PM EDT
10:03 AM
It’s James Harden’s birthday and Russell Westbrook isn’t playing, so how many points does Harden score today? I say at least 45. When you bet the Rockets, you’re betting on 19-plus three-pointers. Today is the day they go in from deep. Houston moneyline is the play.
12-5 IN LAST 17 NBA ML PICKS | +785
MILWAUKEE -14
ORLANDO @ MILWAUKEE | 8/26 | 4:00 PM EDT
10:00 AM
We all know the Bucks are winning this game. I called Game 4 for NBA TV, and here’s the deal when betting the Bucks: You’re betting on the supporting cast. I think Khris Middleton has found his groove. Of his 21 points in Game 4, 18 came in the fourth quarter. Lay the points.
UNDER 8.5
MINNESOTA @ CLEVELAND | 8/26 | 7:10 PM EDT
Twins ace Jose Berrios comes off his best outing of the season when he shut down the Brewers on one hit and no runs for six innings in a 7-1 win. Four of his six starts have stayed Under and all six meetings this season have stayed Under. Indians starter Mike Clevinger has a lot to prove to his teammates and I like him to pitch well also. Just the Under.
19-12-1 IN LAST 32 MLB PICKS | +562
4-1 IN LAST 5 CLE O/U PICKS | +280
UNDER 222.5
PORTLAND @ L.A. LAKERS | 8/26 | 9:00 PM EDT
8:59 AM
While Game 4 represented a best-case scenario for the Lakers' offense, the reality is something closer to Game 3. The Lakers put up 116 points on 10 made 3-pointers in that one, and if that's approximately what they can expect in this one, the under feels safe as Portland has no consistent means of shot-creation with Damian Lillard out injured. Get ready to see a lot of inefficient Carmelo Anthony isolations on Wednesday, and don't be surprised if Portland finishes well below 100 points without its leader.
25-17 IN LAST 42 NBA PICKS | +624
MILWAUKEE -14
ORLANDO @ MILWAUKEE | 8/26 | 4:00 PM EDT
8:58 AM
The Bucks have either reached or exceeded this spread in each of their past three games against the Magic; Milwaukee averaged a 17-point margin of victory over Orlando during the regular-season, and it covered a theoretical 14-point spread in all four games of its first-round sweep over the Pistons a year ago. The Bucks crush mediocre opponents. Describing the heavily injured Magic as "mediocre" is almost too kind right now. The Bucks will finish this one off in style Wednesday.
25-17 IN LAST 42 NBA PICKS | +624
5-2 IN LAST 7 MIL ATS PICKS | +280
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