Friday 9/4/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-04-2020, 05:20 AM

Weekly Bankroll Builder: September 4 Stronach 5 Play

September 2, 2020 | By Brian Nadeau

Weekly Bankroll Builder: September 4 Stronach 5 Play

Back to battle in this week’s Stronach 5, which once again has a 100k guarantee, and a prospective pool that should far surpass that. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 90 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.

*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update. ***

Leg 1: Laurel Park R7 (4:05 ET) – 3up 10k MCL at 6 furlongs

With a very modest group signed on, you have to think #7 ELUSIVE MOTION is going to hit hard off his form and the cutback too, and with just five starts he’s not the confirmed refuser a lot of these have proven to be. I’ll also use the class rising #5 G MAN, who woke up in the mud for 5k last time but has some decent enough form at this level in some key races, which make him a player against a group like this. There’s not a ton of true sprint speed signed on, and #3 WHATS THE CHANCES should be in front, and that’s not a bad spot to be in when you’re talking about cheap MCL’ers, so let’s toss him in too. Lastly, I thought #9 FAVOR MAKER ran well to be 4th for 14k in his dirt debut, and if he builds on that effort and things get too heated early, he’ll be in the mix late.

Pk5 A horses: 7,5,3,9 (listed in order of preference)

It’s tough to get excited about anyone else, as they would be a real surprise off what they’ve shown so far, so let’s go it alone on the top line, with a quartet that are clearly the best of a mixed bag.

Pk5 B horses: NONE

Potential B add-ins: #6 Day of Honor, #4 Created Special

Leg 2: Laurel Park R8 (4:40 ET) – 3upfm Md-bred N1X at 5 ½ furlongs (turf)

Maybe the wide post beats #1a A GREAT TIME but it’s tough to think anyone else in here does, as her last four lay over this field and the dip into the state-bred ranks will only help too, so she’s the single in a race where potential upsetters are few and far between.

Pk5 A horses: 1a

If #6 LADY BOSS shakes loose early she could get brave, but facing winners is never easy, especially since ‘Time owns a huge class edge, so as sharp as her turf bow was at GP, she’s still up against it. If you toss her seasonal bow, which came off an eight-month layoff, then #7 EPIC IDEA shows two solid turf sprints, and the stalking win last time would give her a chance here—if the chalk should come stub her toe.

Pk5 B horses: 6,7 (Please note, to keep the cost of the backup tickets down, I will be singling #3 Uncle Renny in the final leg. This will also allow for some hedging, should I be alive to a big score.)

Potential B add-ins: NONE

Leg 3: Gulfstream Park R10 (5:01 ET) – 3up 12.5k N3L at 1 1/16 miles (turf)

I don’t think rising in class off a win in these low-level claimers is a bad thing, and the post and cutback that #2 DANVILLE gets is a good thing, so let’s see if he can double up at a nice price, in a race where most of these all look the same on paper, and some of the main contenders are drawn wide too. The speed of #7 SMELL OF ROSES should make him a major player, and he won’t have to improve much off that close 5th in his first try at the level to have a say either. The drop in class might help #10 DRILLOMATIC overcome a bad draw, as he’s been facing better and running well, so this modest group might be just what he needs.

*** Please note if #13 Speed Franco draws in he’s an obvious A, and would probably relegate one or two of the above to the B-line, as he’ll be that tough. ***

Pk5 A horses: 2,7,10

The widest draw of all really hurts #12 SHENDAM, so I’m going to leave him off the top line, though obviously he’s a major player on the drop and gets moved up if one of my top-3 come out. Getting back to two turns should really help #8 YOUSHOULDBESOLUCKY, who was oddly spotted in a turf sprint last time, now goes off the claim for McGoey (12%), and has plenty of solid route form showing too.

Pk5 B horses: 12,8 (Please note, to keep the cost of the backup tickets down, I will be singling #3 Uncle Renny in the final leg. This will also allow for some hedging, should I be alive to a big score.)

Potential B add-ins: #9 Budget Buster

Leg 4: Golden Gate Fields R2 (5:15 ET) – 3up 5 MCL at 1-mile

Maybe a drop in class and getting away from the classier So Cal circuit wakes up #3 AGENT ZERO, and while he’s an unknown on the Tapeta, it’s a great sign of intent that Powell reaches for local ace Frey, and this post won’t hurt either. The house horse is #5 SWIFT CHANNEL, who was a close 2nd last time and still has some upside off just four starts, while #8 PREMIER LEAGUE is another who was a close 2nd here last time in an improved effort. Let’s also use another So Cal runner, #9 MY SUNSHINE, who didn’t fire from a bad draw last time but has some turf form earlier in his career, which says he may like the Tapeta today.

Pk5 A horses: 3,5,8,9

I’ll stubbornly use #6 MATSON, who keeps burning money and is now 11-0-3-2, but is close enough to the rest on paper to be in the mix, and just maybe the blinkers-off gets him over the hump, though I won’t hold my breath.

Pk5 B horses: 6 (Please note, to keep the cost of the backup tickets down, I will be singling #3 Uncle Renny in the final leg. This will also allow for some hedging, should I be alive to a big score.)

Potential B add-ins: #4 Insaniamania

Leg 5: Laurel Park R9 (5:22 ET) – 3up 25k MCL at 1-mile (turf)

This is a surprisingly deep field for the level, with several sharp invaders in the mix, and that’s how I’ll play it, as #3 UNCLE RENNY, #4 FOOD AND WINE, and #8 HARD STING have all faced much better than they meet here on bigger circuits and look poised to battle it out. The former gets a slight nod as he drops out of an MSW and will run for a tag for the first time since Lasix and blinkers were added, while ‘Food showed good form at Ellis Park, and ‘Sting runs as a first-time gelding, adds blinkers, and makes his first start for Capuano (21% with newcomers) off a November layoff (16% for the barn), while dropping out of a slew of NYRA MSWs.

Pk5 A horses: 3,4,8

It sure looked like getting to the turf woke up #6 BALLYHOO PRINCE at Colonial last time, so if he can run back to that 2nd, he’s a player here, but the top-3 make this a class rise, so I’m a bit leery he can reproduce that effort.

Pk5 B horses: 6

Potential B add-ins: #5 Silent Malice

The tickets:

Main Ticket: 7,5,3,9 with 1a with 2,7,10 with 5,3,8,9 with 3,4,8 = $144
Leg 2 B Backup: 7,5,3,9 with 6,7 with 2,7,10 with 5,3,8,9 with 3 = $96
Leg 3 B Backup: 7,5,3,9 with 1a with 12,8 with 5,3,8,9 with 3 = $32
Leg 4 B Backup: 7,5,3,9 with 1a with 2,7,10 with 6 with 3 = $12
Leg 5 B Backup: 7,5,3,9 with 1a with 2,7,10 with 5,3,8,9 with 6 = $48

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-04-2020, 05:20 AM

Ky Oaks Day Friday Full-Card Picks with 1/ST BET Assistance

September 2, 2020

Churchill Downs’ 13-race Kentucky Oaks Day card on Friday provides a major lead-in to Saturday’s “Run for the Roses.” Six consecutive stakes races complete the card, beginning in Race 8. You can bet the entire Kentucky Oaks Day program with the 1/ST BET app.

Selections provided by the 1/ST INDEX measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer.

1/ST handicapper Jeremy Plonk provides his human insights to the AI picks for the Kentucky Oaks Day card.

Race 1 (11:00AM ET) // Maiden Special Weight // 7 Furlongs (Dirt)

1A – MOVIE MOXY (32% W // 58% P // 62% S)
9 – WHISPERING PINES (13% W // 21% P // 31% S)
5 – FINANCIAL ONE (13% W // 21% P // 31% S)
7 – NORMA JEAN B. (12% W // 18% P // 30% S)

Jeremy’s Take: Financial One, a half-sister to $2.7 million earner Close Hatches, and Whispering Pines, out of 2-year-old stakes winner Walkswithapurpose, are both live first-time starters. Movie Moxie’s 19-point spread in the 1/ST INDEX is most in any race today, but the debut runners are under-accounted by the algorithms.

Race 2 (11:30AM ET) // Maiden Special Weight // 6 Furlongs (Dirt)

7 – QUICK MUNNY (29% W // 46% P // 56% S)
2 – MALIBU BIRD (15% W // 26% P // 40% S)
4 – LADY TRAVELER (11% W // 19% P // 26% S)
10 – AUNT JOIE (11% W // 26% P // 39% S)

Jeremy’s Take: Dozen juveniles have just 3 starts between them, so the numbers have to be kept in check. Quick Munny and Malibu Bird ran well enough in their only tries to warrant long looks. Sianara’s dam Just Louise started 2-for-2 at Churchill and won Debutante Stakes in second start as 2-year-old. Her trainer Steve Asmussen won 9 of the 21 juvenile races here during spring/summer meet. Rookie Super Sport is by redhot juvenile sire Not This Time (30% winners so far this year).

Race 3 (12:00PM ET) // Allowance // 1 1/16 Miles (Dirt)

5 – BEAUTIFUL TRAUMA (26% W // 48% P // 64% S)
4 – POSITIVE SPIRIT (25% W // 44% P // 63% S)
2 – JEWELED PRINCESS (18% W // 36% P // 53% S)
6 – RESURRECTION ROAD (12% W // 26% P // 35% S)

Jeremy’s Take: Beautiful Trauma won her last by 16 lengths on a wet track, but it was in December. She’s training fast for the return. Positive Spirit was well-beaten in her only start of 2020, but is a former Grade 2 stakes winner. Jeweled Princess runs her best on wet tracks. No real consensus here, as the numbers bear out.

Race 4 (12:35PM ET) // Allowance // 6 Furlongs (Dirt)

6 – OCEAN BREEZE (31% W // 46% P // 60% S)
3 – MISS T TOO (15% W // 32% P // 47% S)
2 – MISTY BLUE (11% W // 25% P // 39% S)
1 – SHE CAN’T SING (11% W // 27% P // 39% S)

Jeremy’s Take: Ocean Breeze is highly regarded and ran her career-best over the Churchill track this summer. Her 16-point spread to Miss T Too looks like a legitimate place to single in multi-race wagers. Palamito is a 4-year-old of some repute against 3-year-olds and can be the threat to the favorite.

Race 5 (1:10PM ET) // Maiden Special Weight // 6 Furlongs (Dirt)

6 – PRINCESS LEA (29% W // 43% P // 54% S)
11 – HONORIFIQUE (14% W // 25% P // 38% S)
2 – GOOD WITH NUMBERS (11% W // 18% P // 25% S)
7 – MEJTHAAM (11% W // 25% P // 37% S)

Jeremy’s Take: Another full field of 2-year-olds with only 5 starts among the dozen entrants. Those who have raced underwhelm this eye. Travel Column is an $850,000 purchase who is half-brother to $2.2 million earner Neolithic, though trainer Brad Cox underperformed the past month with first-timers at Ellis Park. Peace Broker intrigues as a half-sister to Kentucky Oaks starter and Grade 1 winner Donna Veloce, who was awesome out of the box at age 2. Good With Numbers represents the aforementioned Steve Asmussen barn that dominated the summer juvenile races here. Longshot rookie Three Tipsy Chix (20-1 ML) is out of Grade 1-winning millionaire On Fire Baby, who was a debut winner in her own right.

Race 6 (1:45PM ET) // Allowance // 6 1/2 Furlongs (Dirt)

5 – HONEST MISCHIEF (29% W // 48% P // 61% S)
2 – MOJO MAN (15% W // 30% P // 43% S)
8 – STRIKE THAT (15% W // 30% P // 43% S)
7 – LASTING LEGACY (12% W // 30% P // 48% S)

Jeremy’s Take: Graded stakes-quality allowance sees Honest Mischief a big, 14-point play over a tough field. He’s dynamite when his best. Strike That has an apparent pace edge in a race lacking much early speed.

Race 7 (2:20PM ET) // Allowance // 1 1/8 Miles (Turf)

6 – FLABBERGASTED (17% W // 35% P // 42% S)
9 – ELLA BRILLA (14% W // 22% P // 46% S)
2 – URBAN FAIRYTALE (11% W // 22% P // 31% S)
14 – LADY OXBOW *AE* (12% W // 19% P // 30% S)

Jeremy’s Take: One of the most competitive races by the numbers on the card, Flabbergasted is one of 4 last-out maiden breakers taking on winners this time. The slow early projected pace does favor Flabbergasted as well as Sense You Left, who will be a much bigger price. French Group 3-placed Sicilia chased a very fast pace at Del Mar in her US debut and should be more at home against this softer pace.

Race 8 (3:05PM ET) // G2 Eight Belles S. // 7 Furlongs (Dirt)

1 – MUNDAYE CALL (30% W // 45% P // 60% S)
7 – FOUR GRACES (19% W // 35% P // 43% S)
4 – PURRFECTLY CLAIRE (15% W // 29% P // 54% S)
2 – NEVER FORGET (11% W // 25% P // 36% S)

Jeremy’s Take: Mundaye Call dazzled at Ellis Park against easier last time and gets the class test against Four Graces, a proven stakes commodity. These two should control the pace throughout in a great matchup. The 1/ST INDEX doesn’t think it will be much of a showdown, heavily leaning to Mundaye Call.

Race 9 (3:40PM ET) // G2 Edgewood S. // 1 Mile (Turf)

3 – SHARING (29% W // 46% P // 62% S)
2 – HENDY WOODS (17% W // 34% P // 54% S)
5 – OUTBURST (GB) (15% W // 25% P // 43% S)
4 – LUCKY BETTY (11% W // 25% P // 35% S)

Jeremy’s Take: Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner and local course stakes winner Sharing is a 12-point pick. She returns from a Royal Ascot jaunt, but gives significant weight to her rivals. She’s 6-5 in the morning line, but the suspicion here is she may be vulnerable, and I won’t be singling in the multi-race wagers.

Race 10 (4:15PM ET) // G2 Alysheba S. // 1 1/16 Miles (Dirt)

2 – MCKINZIE (26% W // 45% P // 66% S)
6 – BY MY STANDARDS (20% W // 39% P // 52% S)
1 – SILVER DUST (13% W // 30% P // 47% S)
3 – OWENDALE (13% W // 30% P // 43% S)

Jeremy’s Take: Hard to look past the 1/ST INDEX top duo of McKinzie and By My Standards. There’s not much of any early pace, which could give McKinzie a pace edge. He wired this race at 3-5 last year. By My Standards has held strong form all year vs. top-class foes. Both are working bullets. Silver Dust at 15-1 in the morning line could be the value play if trying to separate the favorites in the exacta.

Race 11 (4:50PM ET) // G1 La Troienne S. // 1 1/16 Miles (Dirt)

8 – MONOMOY GIRL (31% W // 55% P // 70% S)
2 – VEXATIOUS (25% W // 41% P // 55% S)
1 – HOROLOGIST (10% W // 25% P // 44% S)
6 – SHE’S A JULIE (10% W // 16% P // 31% S)

Jeremy’s Take: Another either-or kind of race by the numbers and to this eye as champion Monomoy Girl re-matches with Vexatious in a replay of July’s Ruffian at Belmont. Vexatious beat star Midnight Bisou most recently, so she’s absolutely on her game. Monomoy Girl is 4-5 on the morning line, and Vexatious 4-1; the though here is they’re closer than that, but Monomoy Girl prevails.

Race 12 (5:45PM ET) // G1 Kentucky Oaks // 1 1/8 Miles (Dirt)

5 – GAMINE (32% W // 46% P // 55% S)
1 – SWISS SKYDIVER (21% W // 42% P // 60% S)
3 – DONNA VELOCE (12% W // 34% P // 40% S)
4 – SPEECH (10% W // 24% P // 44% S)

Jeremy’s Take: The Oaks showdown between Swiss Skydiver and Gamine has been anticipated for weeks, but the algorithms aren’t buying the hype. It’s Gamine by an 11-point margin, and 20 points higher than anyone else in the lineup. The equalizer could be the 1-1/8 miles distance, which is a new hurdle for the favorite, but a been-there/done-that for Swiss Skydiver. I can’t see anyone else winning, but multi-race bettors might want to make a stand on one or the other, providing a chance to double the ticket weight for the same cost by doing so.

Race 13 (6:20PM ET) // G2 Turf Sprint S. // 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf)

1 – DIAMOND OOPS (25% W // 36% P // 50% S)
4 – BOUND FOR NOWHERE (15% W // 29% P // 38% S)
2 – WELLABLED (14% W // 25% P // 35% S)
5 – EXTRAVAGANT KID (8% W // 20% P // 27% S)

Jeremy’s Take: Diamond Oops is a surprisingly dominant points-pick by the 1/ST INDEX in a race that looks more competitive on paper – especially in a turf sprint. I like him at the 8-1 morning line price, but it will be interesting to see the off odds. Extravagant Kid has been strong on the local turf and has a more favorable post draw than some of the other leading contenders. Wellabled is as fleet as they come in America for the opening half-mile.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-04-2020, 05:21 AM

Al Cimaglia: Hawthorne Racecourse Late Pick 4 Analysis

September 4, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Hawthorne Racecourse starts the weekend with a 10-race card. The 0.50 late Pick 4 will be my focus. That sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool and will start in Race 7.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 7

6-Mr Three Quarters (7/2)-Rolled the back half in 55.4 last week for a win versus $4k claimers. This will be the 3rd local start and has done well at Haw. Best to respect chances tonight although stepping up, was Seekman's choice over the #5, and #8 the other Gilerman entry.
7-Shadyman (5-1)-Won at 10-1 in a drop and pop situation on 8/15 at this class while smoking the 2nd half. But is off for almost 3 weeks so will use and hope is ready for a top try.
8-Impressive Cowboy (7-1)-Here's another who dropped and popped at 75-1. Beat 5 from this field last time and now Ridge Warren takes the lines. Outside post helps the price and likes Haw, winning 6 of 21.

Race 8

1-Fox Valley Triton (2-1)-4-year-old is at a low enough level it should be time for a picture. But has gone off at 2-1 four times since 6/12 and has only won once and that was versus non-winners in 2020. Using but will need one other for support.
9-Lucky Crusader (5-1)-Old timer is trip dependent, one move horse these days. But still has the speed to beat this crew if Husted works a good steer. The start will be important and will use over #3, the 2nd program chalk who has 2 wins in the last 40 starts.

Race 9

2-Not Me Gram (9/2)-This race is about as formless as could be and the entire field has only 18 wins over 2 years.
5-Canadian Mountie (3-1)-4th start on Lasix and in the first 3 the improvement wasn't very noticeable. But did improve a bit when dropped to this class in last. Will respect connections and take a swing with Team Leonard.
10-Fox Valley Lincoln (25-1)-Out of the 18 wins over 2 years for the field this longshot owns 3. This is the 3rd start off a sick scratch and drops to the lowest level of the meet.

Race 10

1-Silverstar's Flash(6-1)-Needs a trip but comes right back after racing Sunday and last 2 are the best efforts since the beginning of June. Should be a square price, has hit the board in 4 of 10 Haw starts and has 2 wins.
2-Western Perch (8/5)-Makes 2nd start on Lasix and should like the company. Trainer usually sends them out ready and Wilfong can work an up-close trip.
6-One R Two (6-1)-Continues to stay in fine form. Loses Wilfong but Ridge Warren has steered in the past. Has hit the board in 9 of 13 in Stickney with 3 wins and should be a fair price.

0.50 Late Pick 4

6,7,8/1,9/2,5,10/1,2,6
Total Bet=$27

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-04-2020, 05:23 AM

Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis/Wagering Strategies for 9/4/20

September 4, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Saratoga
Friday, September 4, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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RACE 1: Post 12:20 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Make Mischief; 2-Rossa Veloce; 5-Summer Brew

Forecast: The Friday opener drew six runners, half of whom have a legitimate claim, so we’ll pass the race while going three-deep to kick off our rolling exotics. Rossa Veloce scored at first asking in game style last month while earning a very strong speed figure for a New York-bred race for 2-year-olds. The daughter of Girolamo has been given enough to time to recover from what had to be a fairly taxing effort, and with two galloping breezes since that race to tick her over the R. Handal-trained juvenile should be set for a similar, if not better, try today. Summer Brew, a solid runner-up in that same race while beaten just a half-length, has just as much right to step forward as ‘Veloce and looms the one to fear most right back. She didn’t break all that well in her debut yet to stayed on nicely after quickly moving up to press the issue, and with the switch to I. Ortiz, Jr. the daughter of Summer Front could easily turn the tables. Make Mischief was a nice debut winner at Belmont Park in June and then stepped into open added money company to finish second in both the Schuylerville and Adirondack Stakes over the local main track. She returns to face state-bred foes while switching to J. Rosario, and if she leaves cleanly from the rail the daughter of Into Mischief might find herself on the front end and be tough to catch from there.
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RACE 2: Post 12:55 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Work Out; 5-Saratoga Flash; 8-Judge N Jury

Forecast: There aren’t any world beaters among the known element so let’s go with a fast-working first-timer on top in this state-bred maiden special weight juvenile extended sprint. Saratoga Flash, from the B. Tagg barn (modest stats with first-timers), sports a bullet :59 2/5 solo work in blinkers under mild coaxing only over the local main track last week to indicate he has the kind of ability that must be respected. From the first crop of the promising Uncle Mo stallion Leoban, the $60,000 Saratoga yearling (New York-bred session) purchase looks fit and ready. Work Out and Judge N Jury, two-three finishers in a maiden sprint here in late July, both have a reason to step forward with that bit of experience behind them and both are “must uses” in rolling exotic play. Both are adding blinkers and both are pretty quick, though at this six and one-half furlong distance they could be susceptible to a late-runner in the final stages.
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RACE 3: Post 1:28 ET. Grade: X
Single: 6-City Man

Forecast: City Man has much in his favor in the Albany S., a nine furlong main track affair with six starters. The son of Mucho Macho Man adds blinkers for the first time in his eight-race career and with a perfect 2-for-2 record over the Saratoga main track that includes a win in last year’s Funny Cide S. the C. Clement-trained sophomore retains regular pilot J. Rosario and should be on the lead or in a cozy stalking position outside and have every chance when he’s asked to quicken. At 8/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, we’ll make him a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 4: Post 2:01 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 6-Halpert

Forecast: Here’s a reasonable gamble on a first-timer starter showing slow and easy workouts leading up to this middle distance turf event for state-bred 2-year-olds. Halpert has done everything asked in the morning and more, breezing in recent drills while easily getting the best of his workmates. Don’t let the lackluster final times fool you; this colt can run. The son of More Than Ready goes for a barn that has strong stats (20%) with debut runners and we suspect this colt is fit enough to win at first asking over a distance of ground. The J. Englehart-trained colt picks up L. Saez and it won’t be surprising to plenty of support on the tote. At 5=1 on the morning line he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 3: Post 1:28 ET. Grade: X
Single: 6-City Man

Forecast: City Man has much in his favor in the Albany S., a nine furlong main track affair with six starters. The son of Mucho Macho Man adds blinkers for the first time, and has a perfect 2-for-2 record over the Saratoga main track that includes a win in last year’s Funny Cide S. The C. Clement-trained sophomore retains regular pilot J. Rosario and should be on the lead or in a cozy stalking position outside and have every chance when he’s asked to quicken. At 8/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, we’ll make him a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 4: Post 2:01 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 6-Halpert

Forecast: Here’s a reasonable gamble on a first-timer starter that shows slow and easy workouts leading up to this middle distance turf event for state-bred 2-year-olds. Halpert has done everything asked in the morning, breezing in recent drills while easily getting the best of his workmates. Don’t let the lackluster final times fool you; this colt can run. The son of More Than Ready goes for a barn that has strong stats (20%) with debut runners and we suspect this colt is fit enough to win at first asking. The J. Englehart-trained colt picks up L. Saez and it won’t be surprising if he receives plenty of support on the tote. At 5-1 on the morning line he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 5: Post 2:24 ET. Grade: X
Single: 2-Fifty Five

Forecast: Fifty Five is a winner of 12 of 23 career starts including her last three in similar New York-bred stakes company, so the veteran mare projects as a short price again after winning her most recent outing in early July at Belmont Park at 50 cents on the dollar. There is one cause for concern, though, and that’s her winless record (in three starts) over the local grass course, though one of those losses came in this very same race two years ago when she finished third while beaten a neck for all of the money. Drawn nicely inside and likely to inherit an ideal ground-saving, second flight trip, the C. Brown-trained six-year-old seems like a logical, no value rolling exotic single.
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RACE 6: Post 3:16 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Advanced Strategy; 5-Papa Luke; 8-Tercero

Forecast: Older state-bred maidens sprint six furlongs in the sixth race, with the main contention coming from those that raced. Advanced Strategy is solid in the speed figure department and adds blinkers for the first time, so we’ll give the J. Jerkens-trained colt top billing in a race that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. The son of Karakontie returns to the main track after a pair of decent grass sprint efforts but his debut outing – last December over the Big A main track – resulted in a solid third place effort in a race that was stronger than par. Papa Luke also adds the hood and is strictly the one to beat even though he failed at the favorite in his last two races while having his chance but failing to punch it home late under pressure. We’ll also toss in Tercero, away since January after finishing second to a next-out winner at Aqueduct and training well for his comeback for W. Mott. With I. Ortiz, Jr. taking the call, the son of Majestic City seems better than his morning line of 8-1.
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RACE 7: Post 3:50 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Eagle Orb; 4-Lookin for Trouble

Forecast: Eagle Orb was a clever winner over six furlongs here a couple of weeks ago and shouldn’t have an issue with today’s extra half-furlong in this year’s renewal of the Funny Cide S. for 2-year-olds. The R. Rodriguez-trained son of Orb showed he could stalk, pounce, and draw off in his initial outing and that style should work very well against this group, assuming he can negotiate a decent trip from the rail. Lookin for Trouble didn’t run particularly fast when breaking his maiden over the local main track in late July but was visually pleasing in victory and certainly has every right to step forward with experience and distance. We’ll see what the son of Into Mischief is made of for the powerful team of M. Maker/J. Ortiz. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying Eagle Orb on top.
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RACE 8: Post 4:25 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Light in the Sky; 6-Astoria’s Kitten; 8-Summer At the Spa

Forecast: Light in the Sky,runner-up in her last three starts, has burned money in her last pair but encountered rough trips in both and may have had legitimate excuses. This will be her first try around two turns (bred for it) and with a ground-saving trip and clear sailing through the lane, she may be capable of producing a winning late kick. Astoria Kitten does her best running as the controlling speed and if she can secure that type of trip today she’ll be hard to catch. Sprinter-stretching-out Drynachan, drawn just inside ‘Kitten, may spoil those plans. If ‘Kitten can accept a stalker’s role she’ll be fine, but she’s yet to show she can finish with that type of strategy. Summer At the Spa, a closing third in the same race Astoria Kitten exits, has room to improve and will be especially dangerous if the early pace winds up being contested. The daughter of Summer Front switches to L. Saez and could make some serious noise in the final furlong.
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RACE 9: Post 5:00 ET. Grade:
Single: 8-Freewheeler

Forecast: Freewheeler was nowhere near cranked up for his first outing in almost nine months when second at 4/5 in a recent first-level allowance state-bred turf sprint but with that tightener behind him the son of City Zip should be primed and ready to regain his best form. The T. Pletcher-trained sophomore is wheeled back in two weeks, retains I. Ortiz, Jr., and catches a field that is well within his capabilities. Listed at 2-1 on the morning line but likely to go lower, he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 10: Post 5:34 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Ice Princess; 5-Critical Value

Forecast: Ice Princess was out of her element when last seen in the Fantasy S.-G3 at Oaklawn Park in May but she’s back with state-bred foes today and should be capable of returning to winning form. The Palace Music filly is a fit on numbers and projects to enjoy an ideal second flight trip before being asked for her best from the top of the lane to the wire. Critical Value trounced a similar New York-bred stakes field in her seasonal bow at Belmont Park in late June while earning a career top speed figure and will be tough once again if she can project that sprint form to nine furlongs. She’s “iffy” to do so based on pedigree, and her one prior attempt at this trip when fourth in the Demoiselle S.-G2 last year wasn’t inspiring. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics while preferring Ice Princess on top.
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RACE 11: Post 6:07 ET. Grade: B
Single: 7-Therapist

Forecast: Therapist earned a career top speed figure when a strong-finishing runner-up in an open allowance middle distance turf affair here in late July and today shows up in a state-bred stakes that sets up nicely for his closing kick. The C. Clement-trained gelding, a winner of eight of 18 career starts and a stakes winner over this course last year, should be able to settle off the pace and then wear down the leaders late based on this projected race flow that promises a contested early pace. I. Ortiz, Jr. stays aboard, knows him well, and should have this C. Clement-trained son of Freud along in time. At or near his morning line of 2-1, he's a play in the win pool and a single in the rolling exotics.
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RACE 12: Post 6:40 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Boom Boom Kaboom; 4-Smite

Forecast: We'll double the nightcap, a turf sprint for older state-bred maiden claimers. Smite shows up in a seller for the first time and against this group seems the logical top pick after finishing a close third vs. tougher over this course and distance earlier this season. The son of Congrats has been vulnerable under pressure in the final furlong of his races but should be able to see out the trip today. Boom Boom Kaboom, third vs. similar with a career top number two weeks ago, lands the rail, projects to settle into the second flight while saving ground, and with good racing luck he'll be bearing down late. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we'll press with extra tickets on top keying Smite.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-04-2020, 05:50 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Saratoga - Race #1

#4 Samborella	Pricey yearling was a bit DOB early in the betting on debut, blew the break, made a powerful middle move, then predictably tired, but should be much tighter off that, and the fact she's in this stakes says she's primed now; look out.
#5 Summer Brew	Heavy hitter did well to draw outside some of the other speed, and that debut 2nd behind the 2 was good stuff, and with plenty of pace to just settle off of, she's going to be in the prime spot off the far turn; figures a real handful.
#6 Queen Arella	Closer ran by them all on debut at GP then was in way too tough in the local GIII, but she's now in with state breds for the first time, and a field with plenty of pace too, so she should be gearing up in the lane; will be rolling late.
Race Summary	You should get some value on the 4, as she's not only a maiden but comes in off a very slow debut too, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially to kick off the early Pk5 as well, since there are several who will get bet here, but she has more upside than any of them, and figures to show her true colors here.

Saratoga - Race #4

#5 Martinez	West Point runner was a bit green and predictably a short horse for Shug sprinting on debut, but he now routes, got the tightener out of the way, and it's no surprise he pops up on NY Showcase Day either; breakout time.
#3 Chrome Dixie	Firster goes for Clement, who is a potent 26% on debut, and this post will help too, but the pick looks like a runner, and the works here appear on the modest, so just maybe he needs this one before firing his best; second-best.
#8 Action Jackson	Fellow firster is out of J'ray, who was a stellar NYB turf miss back in the day, and Joseph didn't bring many here this meet, so you have to think he's ready, though this sharp barn is just 10% on debut; tabbing for down the road.
Race Summary	You won't get rich on the 5 but he looks poised for a breakthrough today, especially with a huge experience edge on several here, so play him aggressively to win and place, while getting some built-in value by singling him in the early Pk5/Pk4, as he tipped his hand in his debut, and he may now be set to throw down a race the rest simply won't be able to handle.

Saratoga - Race #7

#1 Eagle Orb	Stalker looked good winning on debut for Rodriguez, who rarely has them cranked, and the fact he did it from a bit off the pace says that the extra ground here will help, as will the expected hot early pace; can double up.
#6 Windy Nations	Stretch runner beat open MCL runners at Mth on debut, so this is a step up in class, especially since he did it in slow time too, but there's a lot of speed entered, and now Maker takes over, and adds Irad too; exotics appeal.
#3 Market Alert	Fellow closer rolled home on debut then was thrown to the wolves in the local GII, but he's now back with friends, is another who will like the expected hot pace, and could get overlooked on the board as well; do not ignore.
Race Summary	There are more than a few here who want to motor early, and that should have the pick in an envious spot off the far turn, so play him aggressively to win and place, as that debut was a sharp one, and likely hinted at much bigger things to come.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-04-2020, 05:51 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #1

#7 Gloriously	Should get a nice pace to kick at in a spot with several forward players, and she'll get blinkers on while landing in a softer spot than she saw last out.
#1 Positive Force	Might be able to work out a pretty nice pocket trip in a spot where the other speed might be a bit faster. That might work in his favor here.
#8 Defy Expectations	Has run two really good races in the two lifetime turf tries, and she draws really well for another perfect, pressing trip from the outside.
Race Summary	Gloriously might be sitting a bit closer today with blinkers on, but she should still be finishing from off the pace in a spot where that running style should work in her favor.

Laurel Park - Race #5

#10 Chauffeur	Ran really well at 6f in the only career turf sprint try, and if he runs back to that sharp June effort, he's probably tough. The guy that romped that day came back to easily take an entry level allowance by 3L. Dangerous.
#7 Zip Line to Heaven	Was well beaten by the top choice when they met in that common June race behind Fiya, and he was able to land second last out against what might not have been the deepest Colonial bunch.
#1 Mosby's Ranger	Cutback speed might get outrun a bit in the early going, and that might benefit this one if he's able to settle inside and finish.
Race Summary	Chauffeur's three-back run would almost surely handle these, and the quick fig from the race held up nicely when the winner rolled a group of allowance horses in his next start.

Laurel Park - Race #8

#1A A Great Time	Tough to get past this dropper, and though she has had some chances against allowance company, she's getting quite a bit of relief while dropping from open stakes company into this MD-restricted allowance.
#7 Epic Idea	Seems like the most dangerous alternative with some decent turf sprint tries under her belt, but I'm not totally sold she's going to entirely back that effort up today.
#6 Lady Boss	Has done some good work in her turf sprint efforts, but to this point she is still a decided cut below the top pair. That said, she only has three starts, so there may still be some upside.
Race Summary	A Great Time won't offer any price, but she looks like a really reasonable single in the multi-race plays. She has been holding her own with better groups and should be able to handle these.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-04-2020, 05:52 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Freehold - Race #1

#1 LITTLE DARE DEVIL	Today’s Best Bet should prevail in dreadful field from the rail.
#3 IMASHARKTOO	Memory can serve her well, Ginsburg’s choice over top one.
#4 DEAR DIARY	Won over Freehold strip when last seen in November.
Race Summary	Was looking for a price play in a field that is a combined 60/2-3-0 this year but couldn’t find one. Little Dare Devil chased a 1-to-5 runaway last week and didn’t threaten in fast, closing half-miles prior to that. Play 1-3 and 1-4 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #5

#3 TAKEYOURBREATHAWAY	Upset win was no fluke, can repeat with similar late rush.
#1 COUSIN MARY	Changed tactics on class drop, demolished field, steps up in class.
#4 SLY ELEANOR N	Just missed in three-peat attempt from post 9, can top $200k.
Race Summary	Takeyourbreathaway upstaged several recent in-the-money finishes with a 33-1 upset. She closed with a flourish to catch favored Sly Eleanor N, who sat a good trip. Play a 1-3-4 exacta box.

Hoosier Park - Race #2

#1 TULHURST SANTANNA A	Sat poised off cover, angled 5-wide, out-finished.
#2 McTHRILLER	Carried speed to two seconds and a third in August, moves outside in.
#5 NEVER SAY NEVER N	Rallied for 24th win in 89th start to join $300,000 Club.
Race Summary	Tulhurst Santanna A sat a good trip as the odds-on favorite but was out-kicked in deep stretch in series final. He finished second to the 2-to-5 favorite three starts back at this level in 1:48.1. Play 1-2 and 1-5 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-04-2020, 05:53 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #7

#5 Passion Plus	Gets an ideal pace setup in front of her and can win if she runs back to either of her last two; has the class to put it on them today.
#10 Hoponthebusgus	Crushed $12,500 claimers and was haltered by Joseph, Jr.; there's a good chance to win a third straight and she'll have to step up in class to do it.
#2 Zodiac Princess	Faces her toughest test but is in top form with two straight win; she liked to be in front and will problem get that go from the inside.
Race Summary	Passion Plus relies on a fast pace in her races and she'll probably one today; a consistent closer against these types.

Gulfstream Park - Race #9

#5 Frosted Grace	t the pace going longer on the turf and was caught last for third; has enough speed to stay in range in the turnback in distance and should have a solid finish.
#4 Royal Squeeze	Has an exemplary 10-23 record at Gulfstream and comes off a third in the Open Lead Stakes; can mix it up with these.
#1 Yodel E.A. Who	Clobbered claimers last time in his first since since November; getting back to good form
Race Summary	Frosted Grace is back to the main track and gets a good pace to chase; big player in the closing yards.

Gulfstream Park - Race #10

#8 Youshouldbesolucky	Was tardy out of the gate going five furlongs and will welcome the return to two turns; will be rolling under jockey Trejos and is the one to hold off.
#10 Drillomatic	Beaten non-winners of two at Tampa two races back and didn't fire in his first one here. Can be along for a minor award.
#12 Shenadam	Comes out of a route stakes race and will welcome this class drop; can run on late vs. these.
Race Summary	Youshouldbesolucky will not be as far back today and has a good closing move; his last is a throw out due to distance and he's in a comfortable situation today.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-04-2020, 07:39 AM

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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-04-2020, 07:40 AM

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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-04-2020, 12:13 PM

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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-04-2020, 12:13 PM

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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-04-2020, 12:23 PM

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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-04-2020, 12:24 PM

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