Saturday 9/5/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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NEW YORK YANKEES VS. BALTIMORE ORIOLES PREDICTIONS

PICKS

BAL Orioles Win +1.5 Run Line
+135

Under 9.0 Game Totals
-105

Run Line Pick
Gerrit Cole will look to bounce from consecutive losses as he makes the start here for the New York Yankees. He is now 4-2 on the season with an ERA of 3.91. During this stretch of two starts, Cole has allowed nine runs over 10.0 innings. These starts came against the Atlanta Braves and the Tampa Bay Rays. Cole has one start against the Orioles this season, allowing three runs over 6.2 innings.

Starting for the Orioles will be Keegan Allen, who has an ERA of 3.52. He made his first career start last week against the Blue Jays, going 4.1 innings without allowing an earned run. As long as Allen does not get shelled early, he is going to give his team a real chance.

Laying this kind of price with the Yankees is crazy, even with Cole on the mound. He has not looked good recently, making the Yankees run line much too steep as well. Cole is prone to the long ball, giving up 10 home runs through eight starts. He is obviously going to rack up the strikeouts, but I cannot trust him right now, so I will take Baltimore on the run line at a nice plus money price. ★


Game Totals Pick
It really depends on which Gerrit Cole we get here to determine how this game is going to go. If he allows four or five runs for the third time in a row, I would expect this game to be rather high scoring. If he goes at least 6.0 innings and allows three or less, I would be expecting an under. Then there is the unknown of Allen. He has not pitched enough at the MLB level for us to know how consistent of a pitcher he can be. The Yankees clearly have been missing Aaron Judge, so to think they will be able to score seven or more runs by themselves may be a little wishful thinking. I do think Allen will have success early, given that he has not faced the Yankees and they may not know what to expect. Much like the side, there is no chance I would put much on this total. However, it is about time for Cole to get back to being himself, so I will take the under as a small lean. ★

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COLORADO ROCKIES VS. LOS ANGELES DODGERS PREDICTIONS

PICKS

LA Dodgers Win -1.5 Run Line
-125

Over Game Totals
-110

Run Line Pick
The Rockies started strong but for the last two to three weeks consistency has eluded them, mostly because their pitching has been failing. The offense has not been great either as the uber consistent Nolan Arenado has yet to find his stride. If the Rockies are going to push into the playoffs they need their ace German Marquez. He has not been good for about a month but his splits don’t lie – he has a 2.66 ERA on the road and an ever over seven at home. Though it is questionable how much that will matter taking on one of the best lineups in the majors in L.A. He has not faced the Dodgers this season. The Dodgers are going to counter with Tony Gonsolin, a promising young arm that enabled them to deal the homer prone Ross Stripling. Gonsolin might not have the ceiling of guys like Julio Urias or Dustin May but his 0.51 ERA plays fine just fine in front of the Dodgers, who are second in scoring and first in homers. He can just go out and pitch. He should have success against Colorado. Take the Dodgers on the run line.★★★


Game Totals Pick
Gonsolin has put up some very good numbers but that ERA is going to rise after this one. It is not that he is going to get rocked but it has nowhere to go but up unless he is perfect. Marquez can and will be better but he is not going to find his game in this one and start spitting out shutouts. Both teams are going to get at least three runs each off of the starters. Add in more for the Dodgers off a subpar Colorado ‘pen and the over is the call here. Take the over.**

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TEXAS RANGERS VS. SEATTLE MARINERS PREDICTIONS

PICKS

SEA Mariners Money Line
-130

Over 8.5 Game Totals
-115

Money Line Pick
When Lance Lynn is pitching the Rangers have a chance against pretty much anyone, he can be that good. On any other night they look pretty pathetic as the struggle to score and don’t pitch all that well. They are near the bottom of the league in all the major offensive categories and I don’t expect that to change. Kyle Gibson has pitched about as well as any pitcher not named Lyn on the staff, which is to say that he has not been very good. Taking on a pretty light Seattle lineup can help but he gave up four runs in four innings when he faced them in early August. Meanwhile, Justus Sheffield has been showing improvement as the season has progressed. His best game might have been against the same Ranger about two weeks ago. They are kind of a one hit wonder on offense with Kyle Lewis leading the way. Kyle Seager has his moments but they were really hoping to deal him, and couldn’t. They are playing out the string, both teams are, but Seattle is the play. Take the Mariners.★★


Game Totals Pick
With the way these teams struggle to score it is hard to think over here, but it is not like Sheffield and Gibson are going to pitch to a 2-1 final. Gibson has been getting hit hard all season long and Sheffield, while improving is still pretty inconsistent. Putting those two on the same mound, and their supporting bullpens looks like an over opportunity for me. Just don’t bet the house. Take the over.★
*

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ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS VS. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS PREDICTIONS

PICKS

SF Giants Win Money Line
-140

Over 8.5 Game Totals
-120

Money Line Pick
The suddenly resilient San Francisco Giants will open a series with the slumping Arizona Diamondbacks here. Everybody spent all offseason trashing this Giants lineup, but the ragtag group has quietly been excellent. They exploded for 23 runs a couple of nights ago, and they’ve now scored the third most runs in MLB. Nobody saw that coming, to say the least. They’ve now gone 10-4 in their last 14 games to crawl back into the playoff race, and will look to keep it going with Tyler Anderson on the mound here. Anderson got roughed up in his most recent outing, but he threw a complete game shutout against this same D-Backs team right before that. Arizona starter Taylor Clarke has been solid through only 24 and 1/3 innings this year, but considering he had a 5.31 ERA last season I think it’s a fluke. Arizona is just 5-15 on the road this year. Bet on San Francisco to keep it rolling.★★


Game Totals Pick
The over also makes some sense here. Believe it or not the Giants have one of the best offenses in the big leagues, and I don’t have much confidence in either pitcher. Both teams’ bullpens are in the bottom third of the league, so we should see plenty of runs after the starters leave the game. Anderson gave up seven earned runs in his most recent start, and the last two games the Giants have played in have seen 43 total runs get scored. As long as oddsmakers keep disrespecting this San Francisco offense, keep taking the over.★★

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UFC FIGHT NIGHT 176: HUNTER AZURE VS. COLE SMITH PREDICTIONS

PICKS

Azure Win by Decision Fight Prop
+110

Fight Prop Pick
The first fight at UFC Fight Night 176 will see Hunter Azure take on Cole Smith. This will be a fight in the UFC Bantamweight division. Azure comes into this fight with an MMA record of 8-1. He is 1-1 after losing his last fight by KO against Brian Kelleher back in May of this year. His has shown to be a good striker, averaging 4.71 significant strikes per minute. He also does not take a ton of damage, absorbing just 1.97 strikes. His grappling game is decent, averaging 1.55 takedowns per every 15 minutes, however he is only landing these at 33%.

Smith comes in 7-1 in the MMA and is also 1-1 in the UFC after losing his last fight. This was back in September of 2019, so it will be almost a year since he last fought. His striking is extremely lacking, averaging just 1.63 significant strikes per minute. He also only lands these strikes at an accuracy of 33%. He actually takes even less damage, just 1.53 strikes per minute. His grappling is nothing special either as he averages 1.30 takedowns per every 15 minutes, landing them at an accuracy of 30%.

Because Smith is very good at limiting damage, I am going to back Azure to win this fight on the judge’s scorecards. I do not think either guy will have much success on the ground, so I will look for Azure to dominate in a stand up fight.

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UFC FIGHT NIGHT 176: MARCOS ROGERIO DE LIMA VS. ALEXANDER ROMANOV PREDICTIONS

PICKS

Romanov Win Money Line
-136

Money Line Pick
The second fight at UFC Fight Night 176 will see Marcos Rogerio De Lima take on Alexander Romanov. This will be a fight in the UFC Heavyweight division. De Lima is the much more experienced fighter, having posted a record of 17-6-1 in his career and 6-4 in the UFC. He is coming off a KO win against Ben Sosoli back in February of this year. De Lima is looking to keep this fight standing, having averaged 3.78 significant strikes per minute at an accuracy of 54%. His grappling is not as prevalent, averaging just 0.76 takedowns per every 15 minutes at an accuracy of 60%. More concerning is his takedown defense, which is 36%. Also, it is worth noting that his last four losses have all come by submission, so if the fight moves to the ground, he is likely in a world of trouble.

Romanov puts his perfect 11-0 record on the line here as he makes his UFC debut. What is most impressive about Romanov is his ability to finish his fights. Five career wins by KO/TKO and six wins by submission means he has never gone the distance in a fight. Also, nine of his 11 fights have ended in the first round, so Romanov will be looking to make a statement early.

Given De Lima’s struggles at stopping a submission attempt, I am going to back Romanov to make his first statement in the UFC.

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UFC FIGHT NIGHT 176: MONTANA DE LA ROSA VS. VIVIANE ARAUJO PREDICTIONS

PICKS

Araujo Win Money Line
-178

Money Line Pick
The third fight at UFC Fight Night 176 will see Montana De La Rosa take on Viviane Araujo. This will be a fight in the UFC Women’s Flyweight division. De La Rosa comes in 11-5 in the MMA and 4-1 in the UFC. She won her most recent fight by unanimous decision against Mara Romero Borella back in February of this year. Her striking has been below average, landing just 2.30 significant strikes per minute. Her striking accuracy is also very poor, landing just 33% of her strikes. She does have pretty good striking defense, absorbing 2.80 strikes. She does most of her damage on the ground where she averages 2.22 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Though her takedown accuracy is a problem at 33%. Eight of her wins have come by submission, three of these coming in the UFC.

Araujo comes in 8-2 in the MMA and has started her UFC career with a record of 2-1. She lost her last fight to Jessica Eye by unanimous decision back in December of 2019. She is more of a balanced fighter, averaging 4.51 significant strikes per minute, but at the same time, is absorbing 5.20 strikes. Her grappling is also relevant, averaging 2.57 takedowns per every 15 minutes, and landing them at an accuracy of 58%. Another important note is that she has been able to defend takedowns with a 100% accuracy, which could really ruin the game plan for De La Rosa.

I think Araujo’s more balanced fight style is going to be the main difference here. He is a better striker, and far better at taking her opponent down as well as defending the takedown. By no means do I feel strongly about this fight, but I will lean to the Araujo side to win.

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UFC FIGHT NIGHT 176: ANDRE MUNIZ VS. BARTOSZ FABINSKI PREDICTIONS

PICKS

Fabinski Win Money Line
-158

Money Line Pick
The featured preliminary at UFC Fight Night 176 will see Bartosz Fabinski take on Andre Muniz. This will be a fight in the UFC Middleweight division. Fabinski is comes in 15-3 in the MMA and 3-1 in the UFC. He recently won a fight in March of this year, however this was at a Cage Warriors event during the pandemic. His last UFC fight came in November of 2018, so it has been quite a layoff. His striking is not that sharp, averaging just 2.22 significant strikes per minute. Though he is landing them at 70% an only takes 1.35 strikes of damage per minute. The ground however, is where Fabinski will want this fight. He is averaging 7.17 takedowns per every 15 minutes and landing them at an accuracy of 70%. Plus, his takedown defense is 80%, so it seems unlikely he will get tossed down often, if at all.

Muniz comes into this fight 19-4 in the MMA and 1-0 in the UFC. He will be looking to build off that debut win which came by unanimous decision against Antonio Arroyo back in November of 2019. Muniz is also a low volume striking guy, landing just 2.27 significant strikes per minute. He will also want this fight to be on the ground where he averages 2.83 takedowns for every 15 minutes. The issue with this is that Muniz only lands 35% of his own takedowns and prevents 33% of his opponent’s takedowns.

Muniz does have 12 submission wins in his career, but given the defense of Fabinski, I do not see that happening here. Even with the long UFC layoff, Fabinski has still fought more recently and it was against a formidable opponent in Darren Stewart. I believe Fabinski will be able to takedown Muniz at least a few times and will take him as a lean.

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UFC FIGHT NIGHT 176: THIAGO MOISES VS. JALIN TURNER PREDICTIONS

PICKS

Moises Win Money Line
-178

Money Line Pick
The Main Card will kick off when Thiago Moises takes on Jalin Turner. This will be fight in the UFC Lightweight division. Moises is 13-4 in his MMA career, and 2-2 in the UFC. He is coming off a submission win against Michael Johnson in May of this year. He certainly does not have the best striking, averaging just 2.68 strikes per minute. He also only lands his strikes at 43%. As a result, he was out-struck 27 to 1 against Johnson in that recent fight, however still got the finish pretty quickly. It is also worth noting that he has never been finished in his career, only losing by the judge’s scorecards, so his chin is quite strong. His grappling is a big part of his game as he averages 1.10 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.60 submission attempts during the same time period. Though his takedown accuracy is poor at 28%.

Turner comes into this fight 9-5 in the MMA and 2-2 in the UFC as well. He is coming off a win by TKO, beating Joshua Culibao back in February of this year. He is a much better striker, landing an average of 5.95 significant strikes per minute. He does absorb a little more damage, 3.91 strikes per minute. As a result, he has been finished three times in his career, but only once in the UFC.

Moises was impressive in that fight against Johnson and because he has never been finished, I am going to lean his way to find the win.

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UFC FIGHT NIGHT 176: KEVIN NATIVIDAD VS. BRIAN KELLEHER PREDICTIONS

PICKS

Fight to go the Distance - No Fight Prop
-168

Fight Prop Pick
The second Main Card fight will see Kevin Natividad take on Brian Kelleher. It will be a fight in the UFC Featherweight division. Kelleher has been busy this year, making his fourth appearance in the Octagon. This will be his third fight since the COVID-19 pandemic, where he is 2-1. He did lose his last fight to Cody Stammen at UFC 250 back in June, but now will be facing a much less inexperienced fighter. Kelleher will focus on striking in this fight, having landed 4.48 significant strikes per minute. He does struggle to land them accurately, just 40% of the time. The other issue is he absorbs 6.00 strikes per minute, though he has only been knocked out once in his entire career. As for grappling, Kelleher averages 1.21 takedowns per every 15 minute, though only does so with an accuracy of 25%.

Natividad is 9-1 in the MMA and will make his UFC debut in this spot. He has won five fights in a row, three of which by finish and the other two by decision. He now has five career KO/TKO wins, but just one by submission. Note that Natividad has a four inch reach advantage of Kelleher, which may help keep his distance just a bit.

I really do not want to back either guy on the money line because Kellher’s price is too high and backing a guy making his debut does not always work out. Kelleher has 17 wins by finish and 24 of his 32 professional fights have ended inside the distance. That also includes 7 of his 9 UFC fights. Therefore, I will back this fight to end inside the distance as a small lean.

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UFC FIGHT NIGHT 176: MICHEL PEREIRA VS. ZELIM IMADAEV PREDICTIONS

PICKS

Pereira Win Money Line
-115

Money Line Pick
This Main Card fight will see Michel Pereira take on Zelim Imadaev. This will be a fight in the UFC Welterweight division. Pereira comes in with a record of 23-11 in the MMA, but just 1-2 in the UFC. He has lost his last two fights in a row, most recently to Diego Sanchez by KO back in February of this year. His striking is pretty average, landing 3.04 significant strikes per minute. He is landing these strikes at 51% as well. He is absorbing 3.04 strikes too, so his defense has also been decent. As for his grappling, he is landing an average of 2.00 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 57%, while his takedown defense is a perfect 100%. Pereira also has a total of 16 finishes in his career, 10 by TKO/KO, but just one finish in the UFC.

On the other side is Imadaev, who is 8-2 in the MMA, but 0-2 in the UFC. He is still searching for that first win inside the Octagon, or it is possible he might be in danger of losing his UFC contract. His striking is decent, averaging 3.69 significant strikes per minute. The main issue is his 41% accuracy. Also, he absorbs more damage at 3.37 strikes, but has only been knocked out once (his last fight).

This fight is so evenly matched, but I will give a slight edge to the Pereira side. He is a little more of a balanced fight with his grappling ability, so I will back him as a very small lean to win this fight.

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Jody Demling

17 Tiz the Law (5-8) - I have been on him all year but really was thinking about picking Art Collector; but his scratch made it easy on me. I'll go with the best horse in the field.

16 Honor A.P. (5-1) - The Santa Anita Derby winner is the best of the West Coast; his last start was disappointing but I think he improves.

12 Sole Volante (35-1) - The Belmont Stakes was a major disappointment; but I will give him another shot, plus his style is great for the stretch at Churchill Downs.

15 NY Traffic (20-1) - Almost beat Authentic in the Haskell and has looked really good at Churchill.

5 Major Fed (60-1) - Runner-up in the Indiana Derby is likely to be still running in the end; would be a great story with local trainer Greg Foley.

18 Authentic (8-1) - Trainer Bob Baffert has endure so much bad luck this spring, but he still has the son of Into Mischief. Not sure he wants the added distance and might have to go to fast in the No. 18 post position but he's going to be trying until the end.

10 Thousand Words (12-1) - Beat Honor A.P. in the Shared Belief and Hall of Famer Bob Baffert thinks he should be a factor in the Derby.

2 Max Player (30-1) - The son of Honor Code ran a solid third in the Belmont Stakes and third in the Travers; he's in a new barn with trainer Steve Asmussen and has looked great training at Churchill Downs.

13 Attachment Rate (40-1) - Not sure he fits still with the best of this bunch, but he will be coming in the end and pass some tired horses.

9 Mr. Big News (100-1) - Won as a long shot at Oaklawn in April; was looking to run on the turf but opted for the Derby and is going to get the distance.

3 Enforceable (25-1) - Have had him higher all year but he keeps disappointing me; just don't see him in the top half.

14 Winning Impression (100-1) - The only reason I think he will beat any of the horses in the field is that some won't get the distance; he'll at least keep running.

8 South Bend (50-1) - Was entered just before the draw on Tuesday; likely to be running in the end.

7 Money Moves (40-1) - Trainer Todd Pletcher said he's 'taking a shot' for the Derby and it's with a horse that is 2-for-3 coming off an allowance win.

11 Necker Island (85-1) - If the connections can get in, I believe they will go just to see him run.

4 Storm the Court (60-1) - Won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile but doesn't belong going against the best of this crop right now.

$5 EXACTA 17 with 5,12,15,16,18 ($25)

$2 EXACTA 17 with 2,3,4,7,8,9,10,11,13,14 ($20)

$0.50 TRIFECTA 17 with 5,12,15,16,18 with ALL ($35)

$0.10 SUPERFECTA 17 with 5,12,15,16,18 with 5,12,15,16,18 with ALL ($26)

$0.10 SUPERFECTA 5,12,15,16,18 with 17 with 5,12,15,16,18 with 2,5,9,10,12,13,15,16,18 ($14)

And my just in case wagers - looking at the long shots

$1 EXACTA 12,15 with 2,5,9,10,12,13,15,16,17,18 ($20)

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UFC FIGHT NIGHT 176: OVINCE SAINT PREUX VS. ALONZO MENIFIELD PREDICTIONS

PICKS

Saint Preux Win Money Line
+108

Money Line Pick
The Co-Main Event at UFC Fight Night 176 will see Ovince Saint Preux take on Alonzo Menifield. This will be a fight in the UFC Light Heavyweight division. Saint Preux comes into this fight 24-14 in the MMA and 12-9 in the UFC. He tried his luck in the Heavyweight division last time out, but lost to Ben Rothwell. This fight was back in May of this year and the fight ended in a split decision loss. Saint Preux now returns to where he is more comfortable, the Light Heavyweight division. He is not exactly a great striker, averaging 2.60 significant strikes per minute. He absorbs 2.91 strikes per minute, so his defense is solid as well. While he did not land a takedown in his recent Heavyweight fight, Saint Preux averages 1.27 takedowns per every 15 minutes, but only at an accuracy of 40%.

His opponent, Alonzo Menifield, is 9-1 in the MMA and 2-1 in the UFC. He is coming off the first loss of his career, a loss back in June of this year to Devin Clark by unanimous decision. Menifield is a decent striker, averaging 3.75 significant strikes per minute. He also absorbs 3.75 strikes, which could be worrisome against a guy like Saint Preux with knockout power. Menifield does not like to fight on the ground, but he does a great job at defending takedowns (85% takedown defense). Saint Preux has seen 14 of his 21 UFC fights end inside the distance and two of the three fights in the Octagon for Menifield have seen a finish as well.

Both fighters looked lackluster in their previous fights, but with Saint Preux making the move back to Light Heavyweight, I think he has the edge here. Menefield looked exhausted in his last fight as well, seeing that it did not end in the first round, so my pick would be Ovince Saint Preux.

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UFC FIGHT NIGHT 176: ALISTAIR OVEREEM VS. AUGUSTO SAKAI PREDICTIONS

PICKS

Overeem Win Money Line
-164

Money Line Pick
The Main Event at UFC Fight Night 176 will see Alistair Overeem take on Augusto Sakai. This will be a fight in the UFC Heavyweight division. Overeem is clearly a seasoned veteran in the MMA, posting a record of 46-18 in his career. He is 11-7 in the UFC and the #6 contender in the division. He is coming off a win over Walt Harris from May of this year, beating him by TKO in the second round. He is 3-3 over his last six fights, so he has been a little inconsistent. Overeem is a pretty balanced striker, averaging 3.66 significant strikes per minute. His striking accuracy is 63%. He does only absorb 2.18 strikes per minute, but has been knocked out 14 times in his career and seven times in the UFC. His grappling is also pretty good, averaging 1.40 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 54% and his takedown defense is 73%. He also has 17 submission wins in his career, but none in the UFC, so a stand up fight might be more likely.

Sakai is 15-1-1 in the MMA and 4-0 in the UFC. He most recently won in May of this year by split decision against Blagoy Ivanov. Sakai is the #9 contender in the Heavyweight division and with a win against a guy like Overeem, he could certainly be closer to a title shot. Sakai is almost exclusively a striker, averaging 5.45 significant strikes per minute. He does absorb more damage, but has never been knocked out in his career.

Some of Sakai’s recent fights have resulted in questionable decisions. He was out-struck by Andrei Arlovski a couple fights ago, 75 to 42, yet still managed to get the win. Overeem look revitalized against Harris in May and that will be who I side with here to get another big win.

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TORONTO FC VS VANCOUVER WHITECAPS PREDICTIONS

PICKS

Toronto Win Money Line
-200

Money Line Pick
Toronto FC travel to Vancouver hoping to avoid a second straight loss to a fellow Canadian team. Toronto were far from their best on Tuesday when they dropped a 1-0 decision at home to the Montreal Impact. Still, they’re one of the deepest and most talented teams in the league, and while every team hits a dry spell occasionally, a team like Toronto should be able to snap out of it quickly. Last year’s MLS Cup finalists are without a doubt the most dominant team in Canada, and they’re looking to sweep the season series with their cross-country rivals before hopefully being able to face tougher competition in the United States once the border is cleared to open. Vancouver have lost three in a row since the MLS is Back Tournament, and while they haven’t yet played at home, the lack of fans won’t give them much of a home-field advantage. Vancouver failed to score in either of their two games against Toronto last month, and it’s hard to imagine Toronto playing a team of this level and not scoring. Take the away team to win.