Saturday 9/5/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TEXAS (13 - 24) at SEATTLE (16 - 22) - 9:10 PM
KYLE GIBSON (R) vs. JUSTUS SHEFFIELD (L)

Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS is 3-13 (-11.6 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
TEXAS is 0-9 (-9.4 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
TEXAS is 12-36 (-19.9 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 72-63 (+13.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 121-123 (+9.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 50-36 (+19.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
GIBSON is 53-44 (+25.4 Units) against the money line in road games since 1997. (Team's Record)
GIBSON is 21-8 (+15.0 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday since 1997. (Team's Record)
GIBSON is 28-16 (+20.9 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents since 1997. (Team's Record)
GIBSON is 32-27 (+15.6 Units) against the money line in road games in night games since 1997. (Team's Record)
GIBSON is 53-27 (+24.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997. (Team's Record)
SEATTLE is 986-905 (-123.6 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997.
SEATTLE is 143-162 (-60.5 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Saturday since 1997.
SEATTLE is 686-641 (-110.3 Units) against the money line in home games in night games since 1997.
SEATTLE is 487-471 (-104.4 Units) against the money line in home games after a win since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 5-2 (+4.0 Units) against TEXAS this season
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.8 Units)
KYLE GIBSON vs. SEATTLE since 1997
GIBSON is 4-4 when starting against SEATTLE with an ERA of 3.96 and a WHIP of 1.492.
His team's record is 7-4 (+3.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-7. (-3.9 units)
JUSTUS SHEFFIELD vs. TEXAS since 1997
SHEFFIELD is 1-0 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 1.50 and a WHIP of 1.167.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

COLORADO (18 - 20) at LA DODGERS (30 - 10) - 9:10 PM
GERMAN MARQUEZ (R) vs. TONY GONSOLIN (R)

Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 275-481 (-82.1 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 since 1997.
COLORADO is 32-24 (+14.2 Units) against the money line in September games over the last 3 seasons.
COLORADO is 100-106 (+13.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 1007-846 (-92.3 Units) against the money line in night games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 4-0 (+4.0 Units) against COLORADO this season
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.1 Units, Under=-0.0 Units)
GERMAN MARQUEZ vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
MARQUEZ is 2-1 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 2.54 and a WHIP of 0.926.
His team's record is 3-5 (+0.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-2. (+2.8 units)
TONY GONSOLIN vs. COLORADO since 1997
No recent starts.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ARIZONA (15 - 24) at SAN FRANCISCO (18 - 21) - 9:15 PM
MADISON BUMGARNER (L) vs. TREVOR CAHILL (R)

Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 95-106 (+13.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 50-52 (+16.6 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 66-61 (+22.5 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 51-52 (+14.0 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 44-35 (+12.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 64-55 (+13.6 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 55-43 (+10.9 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 8-21 (-17.1 Units) against the money line in home games in September games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 5-2 (+3.8 Units) against ARIZONA this season
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.1 Units)
MADISON BUMGARNER vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
No recent starts.
TREVOR CAHILL vs. ARIZONA since 1997
CAHILL is 0-1 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 4.16 and a WHIP of 1.247.
His team's record is 3-1 (+2.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-3. (-2.5 units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CHICAGO CUBS (23 - 15) at ST LOUIS (14 - 15) - 8:15 PM
ADBERT ALZOLAY (R) vs. DAKOTA HUDSON (R)

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO CUBS is 4-2 (+1.3 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.8 Units)
ADBERT ALZOLAY vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
ALZOLAY is 0-0 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.600.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-0. (+0.0 units)
DAKOTA HUDSON vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
HUDSON is 0-0 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 3.38 and a WHIP of 1.750.
His team's record is 1-1 (-0.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-0. (+2.0 units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LA ANGELS (14 - 25) at HOUSTON (21 - 16) - 10:07 PM
PATRICK SANDOVAL (L) vs. JOSE URQUIDY (R)

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-3 (+0.0 Units) against LA ANGELS this season
6 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+6.0 Units)
PATRICK SANDOVAL vs. HOUSTON since 1997
SANDOVAL is 0-2 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 9.00 and a WHIP of 2.000.
His team's record is 1-2 (+0.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-2. (-1.3 units)
JOSE URQUIDY vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
URQUIDY is 1-0 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 1.441.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.1 units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NY ISLANDERS (45-25-0-13, 103 pts.) vs. PHILADELPHIA (51-26-0-7, 109 pts.) - 9/5/2020, 7:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 51-33 ATS (+17.7 Units) in all games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 20-11 ATS (+7.8 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 17-8 ATS (+7.6 Units) after allowing 4 goals or more this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 25-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 25-19 ATS (+2.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 19-9 ATS (+28.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
NY ISLANDERS are 97-76 ATS (+15.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NY ISLANDERS are 37-23 ATS (+13.0 Units) on Saturday games over the last 3 seasons.
NY ISLANDERS are 14-7 ATS (+6.7 Units) in road games vs. division opponents this season.
NY ISLANDERS are 56-39 ATS (+13.8 Units) after a division game over the last 3 seasons.
NY ISLANDERS are 23-18 ATS (+45.6 Units) in road games revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.
NY ISLANDERS are 18-11 ATS (+31.1 Units) in road games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
NY ISLANDERS are 26-24 ATS (+58.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY ISLANDERS is 11-6 (+4.0 Units) against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
NY ISLANDERS is 11-6-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
13 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+10.0 Units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NEW YORK ISLANDERS VS. PHILADELPHIA FLYERS
If familiarity breeds contempt, there should be animosity aplenty on Saturday when the New York Islanders and the Philadelphia Flyers meet at Scotiabank Arena.

Oddsmakers opened the Islanders as -128-moneyline favorites versus the Flyers, while the game's total opened at 5.5.

The Flyers were a 5-4 winner in their most recent outing on the road against the Islanders. That made winners of bettors who got Philadelphia at +116 on the moneyline, while the total score (9) was good news for OVER bettors.

New York:
Team record: 45-25-13 SU
NY Islanders is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games
NY Islanders is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
NY Islanders is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road

Philadelphia:
Team record: 51-26-7 SU
Philadelphia is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games
Philadelphia is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games
Philadelphia is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 games at home

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NATIONAL SPORTS ADVISORS
THE LEGEND!
FREE MLB PICKS
White Sox @ Royals
TIME: 7:05 PM EST
PICK: OVER 9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGASSI
SATURDAY 9/5/2020
FREE MLB PICKS
Brewers @ Indians
TIME: 7:10 PM EST
PICK: UNDER 8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA public betting, line movement September 5
Patrick Everson

Kawhi Leonard and the Clippers look to take a 2-0 lead on the Nuggets in a Saturday night prime-time game. The SuperBook at Westgate opened Los Angeles -8.5 and moved to -9 Friday.

NBA betting odds are up and getting action for a couple of conference semifinal playoff games, on a super Saturday of sports. The Los Angeles Clippers and Denver Nuggets tangle in a prime-time Game 2, preceded by the Toronto Raptors and Boston Celtics in Game 4.

The SuperBook at Westgate provided insights on NBA opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Saturday’s matchups.

NBA line movement

The Clippers pounded the weary Nuggets 120-97 in Game 1 Thursday, easily cashing as 9.5-point favorites. The SuperBook opened the Clippers -8.5 for a 9 p.m. ET Game 2, and the line ticked up to -9 Friday afternoon.

Meanwhile, defending NBA champion Toronto pulled off a shocking – and absolutely necessary – Game 3 win over Boston on Thursday to pull within 2-1 in the series. Trailing 103-101 with 0.5 seconds left, the Raptors executed a perfect inbound pass from Kyle Lowry to OG Anunoby, who splashed a 3-pointer for a 104-103 victory.

The Raptors opened -1.5 for Game 4 and ticked to -1 Friday afternoon, for a 6:30 p.m. ET start.

NBA public betting

The Consensus indicated early two-way play but a public lean toward the long underdog and the short underdog. As of late Friday night, the Nuggets were landing 56 percent of Consensus picks against the Clippers, and the Celtics were drawing 59 percent of picks against the Raptors.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

741TORONTO -742 BOSTON
BOSTON is 9-0 ATS (9 Units) in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game in the current season.

741TORONTO -742 BOSTON
TORONTO is 9-0 ATS (9 Units) in road games after a win by 6 points or less in the current season.

743DENVER -744 LA CLIPPERS
LA CLIPPERS are 13-3 ATS (9.7 Units) in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season in the current season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, September 5

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TORONTO (58 - 21) vs. BOSTON (54 - 25) - 9/5/2020, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 227-279 ATS (-79.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
BOSTON is 46-29 ATS (+14.1 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) as an underdog this season.
BOSTON is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) after a division game this season.
BOSTON is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders this season.
BOSTON is 156-115 ATS (+29.5 Units) in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent since 1996.
BOSTON is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
BOSTON is 27-11 ATS (+14.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 37-25 ATS (+9.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
BOSTON is 35-24 ATS (+8.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
TORONTO is 43-34 ATS (+5.6 Units) in all games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 10-5 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 9-6 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
9 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (50 - 31) vs. LA CLIPPERS (54 - 25) - 9/5/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 45-33 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 38-29 ATS (+6.1 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 38-27 ATS (+8.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 37-28 ATS (+6.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 22-13 ATS (+7.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 38-28 ATS (+7.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in road games when leading in a playoff series since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 6-5 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 6-5 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Saturday, September 5

Trend Report

Toronto @ Boston
Toronto
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Toronto is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games
Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games
Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games

Denver @ LA Clippers
Denver
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Denver's last 16 games
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Clippers
LA Clippers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
LA Clippers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA
Dunkel

Saturday, September 5

Toronto @ Boston

Game 741-742
September 5, 2020 @ 6:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
124.925
Boston
128.780
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 4
211
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 1
214
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(+1); Under

Denver @ LA Clippers

Game 743-744
September 5, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
114.419
LA Clippers
128.525
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Clippers
by 14
235
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Clippers
by 9
222 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Clippers
(-9); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Game 2 Odds: Nuggets vs. Clippers
Michael Crosson

The second round of the NBA Playoffs in the Western Conference will continue Saturday as the No. 3 Denver Nuggets will look to bounce back in Game 2 against the No. 2 Los Angeles Clippers.

Betting Resources

Matchup: Western Conference Game 2
Second Round: Clippers lead series 1-0
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Saturday, Sept. 5, 2020
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: TNT

The L.A. Clippers connected on 57 percent of their shots in Game 1 en route to an easy double-digit victory over the Nuggets. (AP)

Line Movements

Despite seeing the Clippers absolutely drop the hammer on Denver in Game 1, the oddsmakers have decided to stick to their guns on the spread for this Game 2 bout, rolling out the line of Los Angeles -9 for the second straight contest.

‘Over’ bettors were sitting pretty following the first quarter of Game 1, as the Nuggets and Clippers ran up a tally of 62 points in the first stanza of the contest, but Denver scored just 36 points in the 2nd and 3rd periods combined, causing the first playoff matchup between these teams to fall under the total (OU 223).

The ‘over-under’ for Game 2 has fallen two points, down to OU 221.5 for Saturday’s tilt.

In the Clippers’ first playoff series with the Mavericks, they traded off victories with Luka Doncic and company for the first four contests of the series (split 2-2), before inevitably running away with the last two games of the bout once Porzingis left the bubble with an injury.

The Nuggets can cash as +320 underdogs to trade-off victories with Clippers in Game 2 on Saturday night.

Spread: Los Angeles -9
Money-Line: Los Angeles -400 Denver +320
Total: 223
Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -10000, Denver +2000

Game 1 Recap

It looked like the Nuggets might have had something up their sleeve for the Clippers this whole time when Jerami Grant came out in the first quarter of Game 1 burying his first three shots from downtown and led his team to a 31-31 tie heading into the second period.

That was short-lived though, as Mike Malone’s team was outscored by Kawhi Leonard and company 89-66 for the remaining three stanzas.

Paul George’s playoff struggles continued on Thursday night as he went 2 for 7 from 3-point land and recorded the lowest FG% out of the LAC starters (46%), but his services weren’t necessarily needed anyway with the Claw going for a very casual 29 points on 75% shooting in the Clippers’ 120-97 victory.

A lot needs to change heading into Game 2 for the team from the mile-high city. Let’s see if the Nuggets can actually put together four quality quarters of basketball on Saturday night, like the first stanza of their Game 1 loss.

Game 1 Betting Results

As mentioned above, the opening matchup saw both teams come out blazing and the pair were tied at 31-31 after the first quarter before the Clippers surged ahead with a 38-20 second quarter.

Denver's woeful shooting continued in the third quarter, finishing with just 16 points. The pair did combined for 59 in the fourth quarter but the struggles in the third cost 'over' bettors from cashing all of their wagers.

Outcome: 120-97

Game: Clippers Win, Clippers Cover (-9.5), Under (223.5)
First Quarter: Tied (31-31), Nuggets Cover (+3), Over (57)
First-Half: Clippers Win (69-51), Clippers Cover (-5.5), Over (114)
Second-Half: Clippers Win (51-47), Clippers Cover (-0.5), Under (109.5)

Denver Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 7-9 SU, 9-7 ATS, 13-3 O/U
Playoffs: 4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS, 5-3 O/U

The Nuggets needed every bucket of Jamal Murray’s 40+ points per game in Games 4-7 of their opening round series to put away the sixth-seeded Jazz, and 12 points on 33% shooting just simply isn’t going to cut it against an even tougher opponent.

I’m not blaming the Denver loss on Murray not going off for 40 points, but it was still tough for the Nuggets to keep up with the offensive firepower of Donovan Mitchell last round, even with Jamal scoring at that rate he scored at. It is pretty simple for the Nuggets at this point.

Let Jokic and Murray try to heat up, because they are going to need something similar to Jamal’s explosions in the first round to get themselves back in this one.

Los Angeles Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 10-5 SU, 11-4 ATS, 10-5 O/U
Playoffs: 5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS, 5-2 O/U

I am personally not picking a side between the Nuggets and Clippers on Saturday night, but not because I have lost faith in Doc Rivers’ team or am worried about them whatsoever – just because they tend to take their foot off the gas defensively a little bit when times are comfortable; and I think there is a good chance Saturday could be one of those times.

It also doesn’t feel safe to back the Clippers at this large of a spread when PG13 is shooting with the lack of efficiency he has shot with lately.

Not going to fade the Clippers in Game 2. Just not going to back them to cover in as second straight contest either.

Key Injuries

Denver

SF Vlatko Cancar: Foot - Game Time Decision
SF Will Barton: Knee - Out

Los Angeles

None

As if the Clippers didn’t already have the upper-hand heading into this series, they got point-guard, Pat Beverley, back from injury in Game 1 and it seemed to send them over the edge offensively early, as Los Angeles put up 69 first half points.

Aside from Cancar and Barton, who have missed the majority of these playoffs, Denver and Los Angles both head into Game 2 of the Western Conference Semi’s boasting relatively clean slates on the injury report.