Friday 9/11/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-10-2020, 09:32 PM

Weekly Bankroll Builder: September 11 Stronach 5 Play

September 9, 2020 | By Brian Nadeau

Weekly Bankroll Builder: September 11 Stronach 5 Play

Back to battle in this week’s Stronach 5, which once again has a 100k guarantee, and a prospective pool that should far surpass that. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 90 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.

*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update. ***

Leg 1: Laurel Park R7 (3:58 ET) – 2f 40k MCL* at 6 furlongs

They better have their running shoes on to beat #1 BUCKLY’S CHARM (3-1), who was a good 2nd on debut against maidens and gets to run here without a tag because she’s a Md-bred, which gives her a big edge. You have to use #10 MISCHIEFS MODEL (4-1), since Gonzalez is 32% on debut and there’s a slew of works here, from the perfect attack post too. lastly, I’ll also use #12 JUROR NUMBER FOUR (12-1), who was bet hard on debut at Del Park and was a distant 3rd in the slop, but could move up on a fast track for Russell.

Pk5 A horses: 1,10,12 (listed in order of preference)

Two firsters intrigue me, as #9 CHAMPAGNE TOAST (6-1) shows several encouraging works for Rubley, who is 12% on debut, while #2 WONDERWALL (10-1) goes for a crafty O’Dwyer barn that is 13% on debut.

Pk5 B horses: 9,2

Potential B add-ins: #11 Why Not Tonight (6-1)

Leg 2: Gulfstream Park R9 (4:14 ET) – 3up 25k MCL at 1-mile (turf)

As always, post is key here, which makes #1 CROI MOR (5-2) and #2 ROCKET BLAST (5-1) heavy hitters, as they drew best of all, and both have form good enough to beat what looks like a modest crew, and if the former improves in his second start off the break and for Falcone, the rest of these are in deep water.

Pk5 A horses: 1,2

The post isn’t dreadful for #7 SULEMAN (7-2), and he has a lot of upside too off just two starts, so I’ll use him, but I’m not sure Arias will improve him off the claim from Sano, which is a worry. The post is a major concern for #10 ROBIN TEAM SHOW (3-1), however, which is why he’s a B, even though he’s as good as the top-2 on paper.

Pk5 B horses: 7,10

Potential B add-ins: #6 Diligent (15-1), #8 Broadcast Legend (8-1)

Leg 3: Laurel Park R8 (5:01 ET) – 3up N1X* at 5 ½ furlongs (turf)

Tom Proctor is a very patient trainer, so the fact that #6 FLY THE W (4-1) won off a 366-day layoff says he can run, and while facing winners is never easy, I’m going to assume he’s moving forward in a big way off the Cnl comeback MSW win, and it’s not like there are any great shakes in here either. Clearly the one to beat is #5 HE’S ONE WILD DUDE (5-2), and the fact he owns eight lifetime wins only adds to his appeal, not to mention either of his last two turf sprints wins this too.

Pk5 A horses: 6,5

He’s going to have to move forward a bit to win, but the speed of #8 CARBON DATA (9-2) always makes him dangerous, and if he clears, then just maybe he can get brave enough to move up the few lengths he needs. I don’t like the post of #13 XMASINTHECITY (6-1), but the dirt comeback was a means to an end, he’s speedy enough to potentially negate the wide draw, and his turf races last year make him a fringe player, so with the added maturity, he’s not impossible.

Pk5 B horses: 8,13

Potential B add-ins: NONE

Leg 4: Laurel Park R9 (5:02 ET) – 3upfm 25k MCL at 5 ½ furlongs (turf)

It’s time for a single, and time to narrow down what was getting to be an expensive ticket, so #2 WHISPURRING KITTEN (9-2) is it, provided this is on turf, as her grass runs are simply better than a weak group, and any of her three career (turf) runs wins this, and probably comfortably too.

Pk5 A horses: 2

No one else comes close to the pick’s form, though #3 Sea Storyand #4 Patriotic Punch (3-1) would be the logical alternatives, though after seven and 11 starts, respectively, it’s tough to see why today would be the breakthrough.

Pk5 B horses: NONE

Potential B add-ins: #3 Sea Story (4-1), #4 Patriotic Punch (3-1)

Leg 5: Golden Gate Fields R3 (5:25 ET) – 3up 20k MCL at 1-mile (turf)

Getting back to the local oval and running for a tag over it will really move up #1 KALINE (7-2), who drew perfectly as well and could have his coming-out party here, after a facing eons tougher at Dmr last time. I wouldn’t want to single or take a short price on #8 CAPE POINT (9-5), though obviously he’s a big threat off the head 2nd at the level over the course last time, and his tactical speed will ensure a good trip too. I’m also going to toss in Dmr shippers #10 NEWELL (10-1) and #9 PERSEVERANCE (5-1), as this is a drop in class for both, they still have upside, and will be square prices too.

Pk5 A horses: 1,8,10,9

The widest draw worries me with #11 QUAZE VIPER (6-1), but his form is solid, and he wasn’t too far behind ‘Point last time, which is enough to warrant inclusion underneath.

Pk5 B horses: 11

Potential B add-ins: NONE

The tickets:

Main Ticket: 1,10,12 with 1,2 with 6,5 with 2 with 1,8,10,9 = $48 (can be played for $2)
Leg 1 B Backup: 9,2 with 1,2 with 6,5 with 2 with 1,8,10,9 = $32
Leg 2 B Backup: 1,10,12 with 7,10 with 6,5 with 2 with 1,8,10,9 = $48
Leg 3 B Backup: 1,10,12 with 1,2 with 8,13 with 2 with 1,8,10,9 = $48
Leg 5 B Backup: 1,10,12 with 1,2 with 6,5 with 2 with 11 = $12

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-11-2020, 05:27 AM

Al Cimaglia: Hawthorne Racecourse Late Pick 4 Analysis

September 11, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
The Friday card at Hawthorne Racecourse features elimination races for the Saturday, September 19th Night of Champions. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 begins in Race 9. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9

3-Maximus (3-1)-Beaten favorite in last 3 could be dismissed as a follower but may have enough in the tank to make amends. All but 2 make the final and this guy could get the deck thrown at him and trip out to take a picture.
4-Fox Valley Hijinx (5-1)-Steps up after an advantageous trip to beat easier. Winner in 3 of 12 this year can pass foes down the lane. Could get overlooked at the windows and should offer a nice price.
5-Royalle Big Guy (4-1)-1st local start was fine and now makes 2nd try for the Johnson barn. Leonard is back aboard and here is another who can't be counted out in a race without a standout.
7-Youmakemyheartsing (5-1)-Just missed as an odds-on chalk, was impeded at the start from the 8-hole. Team Wilfong should have this 5-year ready but will need a trip. Usually best when is on the lead at the top of the lane.

Race 10

1-Princess Mooss (3-1)-This filly comes off 2 dull races but has a post edge over #7 who finished a couple of lengths better in last. The winner of last 2 races is out of this contest so will respect chances of a better finish.
6-Clearly The Bomb (15-1)-Hasn't shown the speed of some others yet but comes off a nice effort to take a picture. This will be tougher but Husted provided a perfect steer in last and price will be right if same happens tonight.
7-Bootsy Bombay (3-1)-Has raced from the back and has been trip dependent hitting the board in 4 of 8 with one win. Maybe, tonight is the time Seekman will a try a more aggressive steer to capture 1st Haw win.

Race 11

2-Hot Rod Dylan (4-1)-0-12 in 2020 but drops to a spot to shine. Should be put into play with a better steer as Wilfong returns. Looks like a major player and could benefit from an inside post draw.
4-Trashytonguetalker (7/2)-Nosed out in last in what was the best effort in a couple of months. Should be in the hunt with this crew.
6-Jersey Jim (4-1)-Has been close versus better and now tries Lasix for the 2nd time. Had a tough trip in last and fits better with this group. Looking for a big try at a square price.

Race 12

4-Lousraptor (7/2)-Drew off with a 56.2 back half to win by 3 lengths and paid a nice 7-1 price. The value won't be the same here but has been consistent and deserves respect for an encore.
8-Annas Lucky Star (3/2)-Was 10-lengths back at the half, which was too big of a hurdle to overcome and lost for the 1st time in 5 tries. Looking for rebound tonight and should be much closer to the lead throughout.

0.50 Late Pick 4

3,4,5,7/1,6,7/2,4,6/4,8
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-11-2020, 06:00 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Woodbine - Race #2

#11 Give Me an Eye	Stiff class dropper was spotted aggressively off the Chircop claim, which was a confident move, and he didn't run terribly, so now, back with friends, with a ton of upside, from a perfect attack post, means he's going to be tough; love his chances here.
#8 A Gershwin Tune	Major player and ML favorite has run well at the level of late, with figures that make him a big player here, but the price will be on the underlaid side, and he has no edge, margin for error, or upside either, which the pick has in spades; second-best.
#4 Calling Bear	Longshot wasn't too far behind the favorite when 8th on debut, at 11-1 too, so it's not like he was totally ignored, and now he runs as a first-time gelding, and should only move forward off that tightener, at a big number too; eligible to outrun his odds.
Race Summary	That 4-1 ML on the pick seems like a ton of value, especially with the 8 already hitting his ceiling, so play him aggressively to win and place at 5-2 or better, while getting some additional value by keying him to kick off the 30k guarantee Pk5, as he looks best as it is, and will likely only move forward off his last, which will really make him imposing.

Woodbine - Race #3

#1 Cigarello	Price player was bet down to 3-1 on debut but didn't fire when well-beaten 6th, but he's tighter now, gets a huge jock switch to Contreras, and will be a better price too; can make amends.
#7 Well You Startedit	ML favorite was 2-1 on debut, dueled early, and held to be a distant 2nd, while ahead of the pick too, but she'll be bet hard here, and he may not move forward like you'd think; second-best.
#5 Glinda Good Witch	Logical sort closed a bit to be 4th on debut, while splitting the top-2, and that was a nice middle move she made too, so if the pace gets hot, she should be there nearing the line; in the mix.
Race Summary	The price will be right on the 1, who did't show a lot on debut but now gets a jock switch that says today might have been the plan all along, so play her in all the slots, as well as the 30k guaranteed Pk5 as well, since she'll be a square price and may be overlooked off the initial run, which means a win would add plenty of value to the sequence.

Woodbine - Race #7

#11 Smirk N Swagger	Intriguing firster has a slew of works for Attard, who is 3-for-13 on debut, and it's not like there's anyone here to be scared of either; thinking she's very live.
#4 Shanghai Kimmy	Pace presser blew a 5-length late lead last time, which is never a good sign, so sure, she figures, but that leaves a bad taste in the mouth; tread lightly here.
#6 Trail Blazing Essa	Versatile sort closed behind the 4 last time but can be involved early, though at 0-for-9 there's no reason to think she's moving way up today; underneath only.
Race Summary	Tab the tote on the 11, as you'd like to see her live and taking money if she's ready, and if that's the case you can play her in all the slots, but you can get some guaranteed value by using her to end the 50k guaranteed Pk4, as well as the late Pk4, since she could get overlooked, but she won't have to be a monster to have a big say against a group like this, for a trainer who has proven he knows how to get them ready at first asking.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-11-2020, 06:02 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #3

#7 Elusive Motion	Should be tough here with a good draw outside to flash a bit of pace. Not sure anyone in here can really keep him honest in the early going, and he may have enough left late to see out the long lane.
#1 Nicky Bear	Took a little step forward when adding blinkers last time out, and he can get a decent trip from a good spying spot.
#4 Daper's Drink	Owns running lines that would be competitive here, but I wouldn't be excited about anything shorter than the ML offering considering this is his 15th career try.
Race Summary	Elusive Motion gets a good race shape to flash a bit of pace, and it does not appear there will be significant challenges for him to deal with early in a mostly paceless spot. He should be the right one.

Laurel Park - Race #4

#7 Vigilantes Way	Steps up for this one, but that turf debut was plenty impressive when dominating a N1X bunch on the engine at Colonial. Has a right to be tough right back.
#5 Palm Reader	Has been heading in the right direction and put things together with a fast win last time out. She can't afford a big step back off that race, but if she can hold that form, she's there again today.
#10 Dixie Cannon	Overall form is pretty solid outside of the local flop in June, and she comes off a good second-place finish in NY-bred stakes company.
Race Summary	Vigilantes Way rolled a short group at Colonial in the turf debut, but she did it the right way and appears to be working well in advance of this start.

Laurel Park - Race #8

#6 Fly the W	Has some room to improve after the comeback race off the long layoff, and a step forward off the maiden win last out would probably keeps him in the mix.
#5 He's One Wild Dude	Steps up off a couple of sharp runs going short, and this sprint trip has been kind to him from limited attempts. The one to beat.
#9 Battlebus	Doesn't have as high a ceiling as the top pair, but occasionally gets the right kind of trip from close range that might leave him in contention for the underneath spots.
Race Summary	Fly the W scored off the bench last out, and he's probably capable of something a little bit better than that with it under his belt.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-11-2020, 06:03 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Hoosier Park - Race #1

#5 BEST MAN HANOVER	Game try in defeat, value remains for classy 12yo.
#7 SKYWAY FIREBALL	Rallied for three wins, two seconds and a third in last six starts.
#1 SO SO DELIGHTFUL	Out near the half, hooked ‘Best Man,’ lacked stretch kick.
Race Summary	Best Man Hanover pulled from the pocket to a brief lead in a lively opening half, dueled with favorite So So Delightful on the final turn and fought gamely to the end in a race dominated by deep closers. Play 5-1 and 5-7 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1

#2 NECTAR	Back with her own kind, holds tactical advantage.
#5 SMILING DARLING	Yet to recapture perfect 2yo form, but fits good with these.
#8 UPTOWN CALLIE	Rallied for second from post 8 against top one, romped versus similar since then.
Race Summary	Nectar returns to proper level after testing stakes company. She can maximize her speed as she did in her first victory and bounce back from a break at this level as the favorite. Play 1-5 and 2-8 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-11-2020, 06:03 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #6

#2 Congrats Again	Got a good trip and just missed going seven furlongs last out; capable of a maiden win in his seventh start.
#3 Uncut Gem	Has a steady workout pattern for his first career start; the Union Rags homebred lands in a good spot for the debut.
#1 Raison d'Air	Was an even fourth in a turf sprint in his only start and could welcome more distance and the main track.
Race Summary	Congrats Again came very close to victory last out, has the speed to carve out a good trip and has the experience to ward off late challengers.

Gulfstream Park - Race #6

#3 Sweetly Maid	Closed a ton of ground and was getting to the leaders as she finished third; she's a better mare on turf and fits nicely with these.
#5 I'm Prayingforthat	Ran off a hid in her last three turf races vs. conditioned company and faces slightly better here; loves the Gulfstream turf course.
#6 Bright Venezuelan	Was up in time for a narrow win last time and will have similar pace to chase here; a legit late danger.
Race Summary	Sweetly Maid made up good ground in the stretch and with a clean trip can be a solid player.

Gulfstream Park - Race #8

#4 Mozo Bello	Has a decent late move and comes out of two-turn distance races; gets a fast pace setup and will come rolling. Chance for an upset over heavily favored Trev.
#8 Trev	Few keep good form as long as this one. He's 10, has won five straight races over two years. He hasn't since May, when he came off a layoff and won a race that came off the turf.
#5 Unpublished	Comes off an easy win vs. N2L company and takes big step up; can last for a piece of the exotics.
Race Summary	Mozo Bello came benefit from running longer and will chase a pace that should play in his favor.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-11-2020, 07:50 AM

NATIONAL SPORTS ADVISORS
THE LEGEND!
FREE MLB PICKS
Tigers @ White Sox
TIME: 8:10 PM EST
PICK: OVER 9

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-11-2020, 07:51 AM

VEGAS BLACK CARD CLUB!
FREE MLB PICKS
Lightning vs Islanders
TIME: 8:10 PM EST
PICKS: Lightning -158

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-11-2020, 09:15 AM

Hunter Price

Sep 11 '20, 1:00 PM in 2h
Soccer | FC Midtjylland vs Sonderjyske
Play on: Sonderjyske +450 at YouWager

1* Free Pick on Sonderjyske +450

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-11-2020, 11:34 AM

FOOTBALL JESUS FREE PICK :under Game 7 TOR/Celtics

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-11-2020, 11:59 AM

NBA public betting, line movement September 11
Patrick Everson

Jayson Tatum and the Celtics meet Norman Powell and the Raptors in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference semifinals on Friday. The SuperBook at Westgate opened Boston -2 and moved to -2.5.

NBA betting odds are up for a two-game Friday schedule in the playoffs, including a Game 7 in the Eastern Conference semifinals. The defending NBA champion Toronto Raptors and Boston Celtics collide in prime time, preceded by a Game 5 in which the Los Angeles Clippers can knock out the Denver Nuggets in the Western Conference semis.

The SuperBook provided insights on NBA opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Friday’s matchups.

NBA line movement

Toronto was in a must-win Game 6 and found a way to get it done, posting a 125-122 overtime victory against Boston on Wednesday to force a winner-advances Game 7 at 9 p.m. ET Friday. The SuperBook opened the Celtics -2 and moved to -2.5 Thursday afternoon.

The total opened at 205 and dropped to 203.5 Friday morning, where it remained the rest of the day.

NBA public betting

Reyna Hernandez, manager at The SuperBook, said the book got a $10,000 wager on Celtics moneyline -135. Should the Celtics win, that customer would win $7,407. Beyond that, there was only modest public play through Thursday, most of it on Boston.

The Consensus indicated two-way play through Thursday night, though with a lean to Team Green, with the Celtics drawing 57 percent of early picks. The Over was more popular, getting 67 percent of early Consensus picks.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-11-2020, 11:59 AM

717BOSTON -718 TORONTO
TORONTO is 10-0 ATS (10 Units) in road games after a win by 6 points or less in the current season.

719DENVER -720 LA CLIPPERS
LA CLIPPERS are 14-5 ATS (8.5 Units) in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season in the current season.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-11-2020, 11:59 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Friday, September 11

Denver @ LA Clippers

Game 719-720
September 11, 2020 @ 6:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
112.821
LA Clippers
130.132
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Clippers
by 17 1/2
210
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Clippers
by 8
216 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Clippers
(-8); Under

Boston @ Toronto

Game 717-718
September 11, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston
129.468
Toronto
124.237
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 5
217
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
by 2 1/2
204
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(-2 1/2); Over

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-11-2020, 12:00 PM

NBA
Long Sheet

Friday, September 11

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BOSTON (55 - 27) vs. TORONTO (60 - 22) - 9/11/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 45-35 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 47-31 ATS (+12.9 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) after a division game this season.
BOSTON is 157-116 ATS (+29.4 Units) in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent since 1996.
BOSTON is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
BOSTON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games off a upset loss as a favorite this season.
BOSTON is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 38-27 ATS (+8.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
BOSTON is 36-26 ATS (+7.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
TORONTO is 229-280 ATS (-79.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 11-7 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 10-8 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
11 of 18 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DENVER (51 - 33) vs. LA CLIPPERS (56 - 26) - 9/11/2020, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 46-35 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 39-29 ATS (+7.1 Units) as a favorite this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in road games on Friday nights over the last 3 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 68-43 ATS (+20.7 Units) in road games after allowing 85 points or less since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 77-63 ATS (+7.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 39-30 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 7-7 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 8-6 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
8 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons