Sunday 9/13/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-09-2020, 09:28 PM

453MIAMI -454 NEW ENGLAND
NEW ENGLAND is 130-90 ATS (31 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

455CLEVELAND -456 BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 16-6 ATS (9.4 Units) in home games in the 1rst 2 weeks of the season since 1992.

457NY JETS -458 BUFFALO
BUFFALO is 46-28 ATS (15.2 Units) at home when the total is 38.5-42 since 1992.

459LAS VEGAS -460 CAROLINA
LAS VEGAS are 55-85 ATS (-38.5 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.

461SEATTLE -462 ATLANTA
ATLANTA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 in the last 3 seasons.

463PHILADELPHIA -464 WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 15-34 ATS (-22.4 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

465CHICAGO -466 DETROIT
CHICAGO is 30-52 ATS (-27.2 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

469GREEN BAY -470 MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in the last 3 seasons.

471LA CHARGERS -472 CINCINNATI
LA CHARGERS are 49-29 ATS (17.1 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

475TAMPA BAY -476 NEW ORLEANS
NEW ORLEANS are 36-56 ATS (-25.6 Units) in home games vs. division opponents since 1992.

477DALLAS -478 LA RAMS
LA RAMS are 21-39 ATS (-21.9 Units) against the NFC East since 1992.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-09-2020, 09:29 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 1

Sunday, September 13

Seattle @ Atlanta

Game 461-462
September 13, 2020 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
131.622
Atlanta
138.109
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 6 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 1 1/2
49
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+1 1/2); Under

Philadelphia @ Washington

Game 463-464
September 13, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
125.743
Washington
124.148
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 1 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 6 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+6 1/2); Under

Green Bay @ Minnesota

Game 469-470
September 13, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
129.285
Minnesota
138.813
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 9 1/2
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 2 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-2 1/2); Under

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville

Game 467-468
September 13, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
131.769
Jacksonville
120.616
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 11
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 7
45
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(-7); Over

Chicago @ Detroit

Game 465-466
September 13, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
130.686
Detroit
124.029
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 6 1/2
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 3
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+3); Over

Cleveland @ Baltimore

Game 455-456
September 13, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
130.900
Baltimore
137.346
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 6 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 9
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+9); Under

Las Vegas @ Carolina

Game 459-460
September 13, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Las Vegas
119.780
Carolina
122.407
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 2 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Las Vegas
by 3
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(+3); Under

Miami @ New England

Game 453-454
September 13, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
131.183
New England
129.167
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 2
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 7
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+7); Under

NY Jets @ Buffalo

Game 457-458
September 13, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
132.901
Buffalo
130.194
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Jets
by 3
34
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 6 1/2
40
Dunkel Pick:
NY Jets
(+6 1/2); Under

LA Chargers @ Cincinnati

Game 471-472
September 13, 2020 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Chargers
131.148
Cincinnati
120.283
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Chargers
by 11
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
LA Chargers
(-3); Over

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans

Game 475-476
September 13, 2020 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
132.686
New Orleans
139.426
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 7
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 3 1/2
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-3 1/2); Over

Arizona @ San Francisco

Game 473-474
September 13, 2020 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
130.319
San Francisco
141.455
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 11
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
by 7
47
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(-7); Over

Dallas @ LA Rams

Game 477-478
September 13, 2020 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
133.577
LA Rams
135.391
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 2 1/2
52
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(+2 1/2); Under

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-09-2020, 09:30 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 1

Sunday, September 13

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MIAMI (5 - 11) at NEW ENGLAND (12 - 5) - 9/13/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 270-208 ATS (+41.2 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 270-208 ATS (+41.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 207-153 ATS (+38.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 130-90 ATS (+31.0 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-2 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 2-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CLEVELAND (6 - 10) at BALTIMORE (14 - 3) - 9/13/2020, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 3-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 2-2 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (7 - 9) at BUFFALO (10 - 7) - 9/13/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-2 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 2-2 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LAS VEGAS (7 - 9) at CAROLINA (5 - 11) - 9/13/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LAS VEGAS is 55-85 ATS (-38.5 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SEATTLE (12 - 6) at ATLANTA (7 - 9) - 9/13/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 0-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHILADELPHIA (9 - 8) at WASHINGTON (3 - 13) - 9/13/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 78-54 ATS (+18.6 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 93-126 ATS (-45.6 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 93-126 ATS (-45.6 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 68-97 ATS (-38.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 93-126 ATS (-45.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 15-34 ATS (-22.4 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 4-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHICAGO (8 - 8) at DETROIT (3 - 12 - 1) - 9/13/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 54-81 ATS (-35.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 65-90 ATS (-34.0 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 4-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDIANAPOLIS (7 - 9) at JACKSONVILLE (6 - 10) - 9/13/2020, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 2-1 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 2-2 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (14 - 4) at MINNESOTA (11 - 7) - 9/13/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 36-18 ATS (+16.2 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 2-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CHARGERS (5 - 11) at CINCINNATI (2 - 14) - 9/13/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS are 129-96 ATS (+23.4 Units) in road games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 129-96 ATS (+23.4 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 49-29 ATS (+17.1 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
LA CHARGERS is 1-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA (5 - 10 - 1) at SAN FRANCISCO (15 - 4) - 9/13/2020, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 3-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-2 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (7 - 9) at NEW ORLEANS (13 - 4) - 9/13/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 36-56 ATS (-25.6 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (8 - 8) at LA RAMS (9 - 7) - 9/13/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS are 148-192 ATS (-63.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS are 21-39 ATS (-21.9 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 1-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 1-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-09-2020, 09:31 PM

NFL

Week 1

Sunday

Seahawks @ Atlanta
— Seattle lost 11 of its last 13 road openers, winning LY at Pitt when Big Ben didn’t play in 2nd half.
— Last three years, Seahawks are 13-9-2 ATS on the road.

— Atlanta won last three home openers, by 11-7-4 points.
— Last two years, Falcons are 6-9-2 vs spread at home.

— Dan Quinn coaches against his mentor Pete Carroll; Seahawks won 27-20 here LY, just their third win in last nine series games.
— Teams split Seattle’s last six visits to Peachtree Street..

Jets @ Buffalo
— Jets are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 road openers.
— Jets are 9-16-1 ATS in last 26 games as a road underdog.
— Last four years, Gang Green is 4-6-2 ATS in AFC East road games.

— Bills won six of last nine home openers (8-5 ATS in last 13)
— Buffalo is 5-2 ATS in last seven home openers as a home favorite.
— Last two years, Bills are 3-5 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under is 5-2 in Buffalo’s last seven home openers.

— Home side lost last four series games; teams scored total of only 52 points in their two meetings LY.
— Jets won 27-23/13-6 in their last two trips to western NY.
— Teams split last six series games.

Bears @ Detroit
— Trubisky is expected to start at QB for Chicago.
— Bears are 8-13 ATS in last 21 games as a road underdog.
— Under Nagy, Chicago is 6-9 ATS on the road.
— 16 of Chicago’s last 19 road openers stayed under total

— Last two years, Detroit is 7-9 ATS at home.
— Lions are 9-22-1 under Patricia; they were 36-28 under Caldwell, his predecessor.
— Detroit won six of its last nine home openers (over 7-3 in last 10).

— Chicago won last four series games, winning 23-16/24-20 in their last two visits to the Motor City.

Packers @ Minnesota
— Since 2013, Green Bay is 10-14-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Packers are 4-8 ATS in last 12 NFC North road games.
— Over is 11-3 in Green Bay’s last 14 road openers

— Under Zimmer, Minnesota is 26-10-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Vikings are 10-4 ATS in last 14 NFC North home games.
— Vikings won/covered their last five home openers (under 6-0 last six)
— Minnesota is on its 5th offensive coordinator in six years.

— Green Bay swept series 21-16/23-10 LY, after going 1-8-1 in previous ten series games.
— Packers lost three of last four visits here, losing by 3-13-7 points..

Dolphins @ New England
— Fitzpatrick is Miami’s QB, with oft-injured rookie Tagovailoa only backup on roster.
— Since 2014, Miami is 16-25 ATS as road underdogs (5-3 LY)
— Miami covered six of its last eight road openers.

— First game in long time where Tom Brady isn’t a Patriot.
— Since 2015, New England is 24-12-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— NE won 16 of its last 18 home openers (9-7-2 ATS)

— Dolphins upset New England at home in Week 17 LY, after losing first meeting here 43-0.
— Miami lost 10 of last 11 visits to Foxboro.
— Patriots’ last four series wins were all by 18+ points.

Eagles @ Washington
— Last three years, Philly is 7-6 ATS as a road favorite.
— Eagles covered six of last nine NFC East road games.
— Under is 3-1-1 in Eagles’ last five road openers.
— Wentz had some injury issues in training camp.

— Ron Rivera is Redskins’ new coach; his Panthers split their last four meetings with Philly.
— Rivera was 12-7-1 ATS as a home underdog in Carolina.
— Washington is 5-7 ATS in last 12 games as a home underdog.
— Washington lost five in row, seven of last eight home openers.

— Philly won last six series games, winning last three visits here, all by 10+ points.
— Last four series totals were all 47+.

Raiders @ Charlotte
— Last three years, Las Vegas is 7-15-2 ATS on the road.
— Raiders covered four of their last five road openers.

— New coaches, new QB, no off-season program.
— Since 2016, Panthers are 14-17-1 ATS at home.
— Under is 6-2 in Panthers’ last eight season openers.

— Home side won four of six Las Vegas-Carolina games.
— Raiders lost two of three visits here, with last visit in 2012- they won here in ’04. Carolina won five of its last six home openers (4-2 ATS).

Colts @ Jacksonville
— Under Reich, Colts are 3-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— Colts covered four of last six AFC South road games.
— Indy lost eight of its last ten road openers, five of last six season openers.

— Jaguars are 16-30-1 ATS in last 47 games as a home underdog.
— Jacksonville did cover nine of last 14 AFC South home games.
— Jaguars lost seven of last eight home openers, last four of which went over total.

— Home side won nine of last ten series games.
— Jaguars won six of last nine games with Indy, winning last four played here, three of them by 20+ points.

Browns @ Baltimore
— Cleveland has its 9th head coach in the last 13 years.
— Since 2013, Cleveland is 10-17-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Since 2003, Browns, are 6-9-2 ATS in road openers.

— Baltimore won its last four Week 1 games, by combined score of 139-20.
— Ravens won 13 of last 15 home openers (10-5 ATS).
— Last five years, Baltimore is 12-19-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Ravens’ QB Jackson was limited some in summer camp with a leg injury.

— Ravens won seven of last nine series games; road team won both meetings LY.
— Browns lost three of last four visits here, losing by 21-14-2 points.

Chargers @ Cincinnati
— First game in long time where Philip Rivers isn’t the Chargers’ QB.
— Last three years, Chargers are 7-3-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Chargers covered six of their last eight road openers.

— Rookie QB Burow gets nod at QB, without having played in a preseason game.
— Last two years, Bengals are 5-10-1 ATS at home.
— Cincy is 2-6-1 ATS in last nine games as a home underdog.

— Road team in 6-4 in this series.
— Bengals won four of last six meetings, with teams splitting last four meetings played here.

Buccaneers @ New Orleans
— First game in pewter/red for Tom Brady.
— Arians is 5-11 ATS in last 16 games as a road underdog.
— Tampa Bay won four of its last five road openers.
— How much of Tampa’s offense can RB Fournette pick up in 10 days?

— Saints lost four of last five home openers (0-5 ATS).
— Since 2014, New Orleans is 15-25-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Average total in Saints’ last four home openers: 62.8.

— These NFC South rivals split their season series each of last four years.
— Bucs lost three of last five games in Superdome; they were swept 34-17/31-24 by NO last year.

Cardinals @ San Francisco
— Arizona added star WR Hopkins in off-season, figures to be even more pass-happy.
— Cardinals are 9-5-2 ATS in last 16 games as a road underdog.
— Cardinals lost their last four road openers, by average score of 31-15.

— 49ers are 7-15-2 ATS in last 24 games as a home favorite.
— Niners covered twice in last nine NFC West home games.
— Five of 49ers’ last six home openers stayed under the total

— 49ers swept Arizona 36-26/28-25 LY, after losing previous eight series games.
— Four of last seven series games were decided by 3 points.
— Redbirds won four of their last five visits here..

Cowboys @ Rams
— New coach, same offensive coordinator.
— Special teams coach Fassel, K Zeurlein came to Dallas from the Rams.
— Since 2014, Dallas is 15-9-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Dallas covered 10 of its last 13 road openers (5-5 SU last ten)

— Under McVay, Rams were 14-8 SU in the LA Coliseum.
— Rams are 1-6-1 ATS in last eight games as a home underdog.
— Rams won/covered their last five home openers.

— First NFL game in brand-new Sofi Stadium.
— Dallas won four of last six series games; they ran ball for 260 yards in their 44-21 win over LA last year.
— Cowboys lost last visits to Tinseltown 30-22 in ’18 playoffs..

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-09-2020, 09:31 PM

NFL

Week 1

Trend Report

Sunday, September 13

Green Bay @ Minnesota
Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Green Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Green Bay

Miami @ New England
Miami
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
New England
New England is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Miami
New England is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Miami

Chicago @ Detroit
Chicago
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Chicago's last 21 games
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games at home
Detroit is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Chicago

Seattle @ Atlanta
Seattle
Seattle is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Seattle's last 9 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Philadelphia @ Washington
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games on the road
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Washington's last 12 games at home

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville
Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Indianapolis's last 18 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

Cleveland @ Baltimore
Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing Baltimore
Cleveland is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore
Baltimore is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

NY Jets @ Buffalo
NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games
NY Jets is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games at home

Las Vegas @ Carolina
Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Las Vegas's last 7 games
Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games

LA Chargers @ Cincinnati
LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 6 games on the road
Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing LA Chargers

Arizona @ San Francisco
Arizona
Arizona is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
Arizona is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans
Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Tampa Bay's last 14 games
New Orleans
New Orleans is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay

Dallas @ LA Rams
Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing LA Rams
LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas
LA Rams is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-09-2020, 09:32 PM

Week 1 Angles - Super Bowl Winners and Losers
Matt Blunt

SUPER BOWL COMBATANTS

With the NFL the next sport up to take their crack at getting through a season in this unique year, hopefully some of the annual angles bettors like to bring up during football season remain relevant.

And while any February hangover would have had anyone sobered up pretty quick, one of my favorite opening week angles is to look at the season opener for those two teams that went the distance last year.

The two teams tend to change from year to year, but the Week 1 results do have some strong historical precedent, so let's take a look at some perspectives the Week 1 games in Kansas City and San Francisco.

Both teams are currently laying at least a touchdown for those season/home openers as well.

SUPER BOWL WINNERS IN WEEK 1

Thanks to the Patriots beating Pittsburgh as -5.5 home favorites in Week 1 last year, the reigning champs are now 17-3 straight up (SU) and 13-5-2 against the spread (ATS) in the season opener the following year.

That's a blind system that bodes well for Chiefs fans later in the week, as they come in as a -9.5 home favorite for their opener on Thursday Night.

SB Week 1 Winner Matchup: Kansas City -9.5 vs. Houston

Tough to argue against them winning the game with that 17-3 SU record, but it's also could be a huge motivational edge on Houston's side with the revenge factor for them losing 51-31 in the Divisional Round in this stadium a year ago. It's more of how Houston loss that game – blowing the big early lead – that actually might make this a stronger revenge spot then seemingly equal ones, but to bet into that history is tough as well.

What makes this year's game more convoluted for backing the defending champs though is the fact that these Super Bowl winners since 2000, when laying a TD or more, are 5-1 SU and 3-2-1 ATS.

Total bettors should note that the 'over-under' (OU) is 4-2 in those games.

That's a high success rate on the outright, but not as rosy on the ATS number, and the prospect of anyone winning a game by more than a TD in a season opener after the lack of a regular summer/training camp/preseason games does seem a bit harder to get behind this year.

But the past doesn't lie, and you can bet at a 17-3 SU rate blind, the Chiefs ML option this week will be tied into a heck of a lot of parlays out there for Sunday's action.

You can follow the line movements on this matchup and most would expect the Kansas City (-475) market will be driven upwards by kickoff.

SUPER BOWL LOSERS IN WEEK 1

The Los Angeles Rams were able to buck most of the negative history Super Bowl losers have in their season opener the following campaign, although the 30-27 win over Carolina last year came with plenty of sweat attached to it.

The Rams victory as -1.5 road chalk both SU and ATS put the record for defending Super Bowl “losers” in their opener the following year at 8-13 SU and 6-15 ATS the past 21 years.

LA's win also marked the second time we've had a streak of at least three years where these “losers” end up winning their opener the following year, and never have we had a streak of more than three seasons in that regard.

SB Loser Week 1 Matchup: Arizona at San Francisco (-7)

Does that mean an Arizona Cardinals ML (+245) selection is in play this week?

Arizona visits San Francisco to start the 2020 campaign, and with the 49ers losing the Super Bowl the way they did, they do look like the prime profile of a Super Bowl 'loser' that's likely better to be faded in their opener.

That doesn't necessarily mean a Cardinals ML play is the best way to go about things here, but seven points is a lot to lay for a division game out of the gate, when the last “normal” month the country experienced this year started with the toughest loss in the careers of those 49ers players.

That is a team that's going to have to prove it to me from the start, at least to show that they are mentally invested in this year from start to finish more than anything. If they aren't and do experience a post-Super Bowl slumber, then these point spreads are going to be quite high for them to cover at least early on.

With the horrible ATS record Super Bowl 'losers' have had this century, it's as though there are quite a few angles lining up on Arizona for the game.

Hopefully they don't become too public of a dog.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-10-2020, 09:03 AM

Jack Brayman

I'm laying the points on the road with my first NFL freebie of the season, as I love the Las Vegas Raiders over the Carolina Panthers. And I want you to buy the half point down, as long as bookmakers are offering you a line between -3 and -4.5.

Carolina first-year coach Matt Rhule spoke to Raiders media on Wednesday and said it's been more like preparing for opening week of a college football game, not knowing what to expect in the opponent.

Raiders coach Jon Gruden, on the other hand, sounded beyond confident later that day when speaking to the media, in that he and his staff have done everything they could and the players have gone above and beyond during training camp and these two weeks leading up to Week 1.

Raiders quarterback Derek Carr has made it no secret he is out for vengeance this season. He is tired of his critics, he is tired of losing, he is tired of the negativity - he wants to win now. And with a bulked up receiving corps, including future Hall of Fame tight end Jason Witten and his "backup" Darren Waller, I think we're going to see an amazing turnaround from this team this season.

I don't know about a playoff run, but an improvement on the 7-9 campaign last year, and wild-card challenge with the expanded playoff field isn't out of the question.

This week will tell us a lot, and I feel Las Vegas will be better suited, better prepared and the overall better team on both sides of the ball.

1* RAIDERS

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-13-2020, 07:26 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk: My Late Pick 4 Ticket Sunday at Gulfstream

September 12, 2020 | By Jerry Shottenkirk
My weekly Pick 4 Tour returns to Gulfstream Park on Sunday and we’re faced with a particularly challenging Late Pick 4, led by a solid allowance optional claiming race at a mile around the turn.
My suggested $60 ticket features five horses chosen in the ninth race, which is the third in the sequence. The seventh race also necessitated a spread as four were deemed worthy of inclusion on the Pick 4 card.
Here’s a look at this week’s suggested ticket:

Race 7 (3:06 p.m. ET, maidens)
BIG VENEZUELA has a nice drill after a series of works and is ready for his debut. DOO WOP DON pressed for a half-mile and tired late in his debut. Eligible to improve. CARSON CITY KID had the lead in each of his two races and can mix it up early. MASTER OF DISASTER has worked well for his debut and is bred to scoot.

Race 8 (3:40 p.m. ET, claiming)
STARSHIP TAXI is going to get past this non-winners of two condition at some point, and today looks like a prime spot for him. Always seems to be the hunt and he just needs to finish the deal. YES FOR LESS rallied boldly for second at this level two races back, fizzled for a bigger price on turf and is now back to a bottom sprint. Take seriously. ACASEADAY showed speed at a higher level in Tampa. Comes back off a six-month vacation and can be a big threat for this claiming tag.

Race 9 (4:14 p.m. ET, allowance optional claiming)
INDIMAAJ moves over to the main track after a couple of attempts at this level. A stalking run could be the ticket for this one. CREA’S BKLYN LAW made a solid move from off the pace and just missed last out and had won two straight going into that one. Doesn’t have many bad ones on his form. FIFTH TITLE beat Crea’s Brkyn Law two back and was second to tough Glory of Florida last out. At the top of his game. LIKE YOU has been in good form since March and has the talent to mix it up throughout. Has been in fast races and his efforts should transfer nicely into this spot. YOUCANTCATCHCURLIN moves into stronger company after an easy win. Has taken two of his last three and can run into contention.
Race 10 (4:48 p.m. ET, maiden claiming)
ANIMA D’OR has been impressive in the late going as he transferred his game to the turf. Gets his first opportunity going two turns, which should work out well. UNCAGE THE CAT had a lead in a similar situation last out and stuck around for second. Capable of dictating the terms of this one.

Here’s the suggested ticket for Saratoga’s Late Pick 4 on Sunday:
7) #3 Big Venezuela, #4 Doo Wop Don, #7 Carson City Kid, #9 Master of Disaster.
8) #3 Starship Taxi, #4 Yes for Less, #8 Acaseaday.
9) #1 Indimaaj, #2 Crea’s Bklyn Law, #3 Fifth Title, #5 Like You, #6 Youcantcatchcurlin.
10) #2 Anima d’Or, #6 Uncage the Cat.
50-cent Late Pick 4: 3-4-7-9 with 3-4-8 with 1-2-3-5-6 with 2-6 ($60).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-13-2020, 07:28 AM

Al Cimaglia: Hawthorne Racecourse Late Pick 4 Analysis

September 13, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Hawthorne Racecourse has a 15-race card set to begin at 7:10 CST. The Late Pick 4 starts in Race 12, it has a $25,000 guaranteed pool and it will be my focus.

The driver with the hottest hands on Saturday was Casey Leonard with 3 pictures. The leading conditioners, with 2 wins each, were Hector Herrera and Steve Searle.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 12

3-Misscanfly (4-1)-Broke in last at 2-1 but regular pilot returns tonight. Hard to tell when this mare is race ready but is a threat with a top effort.
7-Big Man Forever (3-1)-Searle trainee has been competitive in most starts but has been burned a lot of money. Was an odds-on chalk in last and has a chance to make amends at a better price.
9-Gogo Riches (5-1)-Got on the engine and didn't look back in breaking maiden on 8/29. Team Wilfong entry steps-up and will be tested with this post draw. Can be in the hunt if minds manners and the post makes for a better price.

Race 13

4-Fox Valley Lizzy (12-1)-Makes 4th start on Lasix and Bates sticks after an even effort in last. Looking for a price and Lizzy should get a cozy trip from here.
9-Locked On It (3-1)-Program chalk gets a new pilot as Stewart chooses #5, but that may help chances. My guess is Warren leaves and could get sucked around and use one big move down the lane.
10-Peace Time (7/2)-Had a nice effort from the 10-hole at this class on 8/30 to come 2nd. Wilfong left off the gate and landed in the 2-hole. Maybe he looks to come off cover this time?

Race 14

3-Gamblinforalivin (5-1)-Broke and had a bumpy trip in last start versus better. Gets a new set of hands in Bates and should like the company. Can get a good trip from here and take a picture at a square price.
6-Babyface (4-1)-Won last at Nfld on 2nd try with Lasix. Hasn't won in Stickney (0-12) but has cashed a 2nd place check in last 2 starts here. Could be set for a big try and does fit with this crew.
7-Beat The Devil (5-1)-Makes 3rd consecutive start here and was driven more aggressively in last. This 3-year-old might be getting better and has a shot to finally post a win in 2020.

Race 15

1-Look Kimbo (5/2)-Bet hard and has failed as a big chalk in last 2. This guy finds ways to lose and the drive is not always a help but has battled better. No excuses allowed here but is 0-12 and that merits caution.
4-Spee Dee Shark (4-1)-Dropped and popped in 1st start on Lasix. Steps up but was facing better and this a suspect group. Best to respect as the Shark has banked more cash over the past 2 years than anyone in this field.

0.50 Late Pick 4

3,7,9/4,9,10/3,6,7/1,4
Total Bet=$27

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-13-2020, 07:28 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Woodbine - Race #3

#7 Correlate	Well-bred Casse firster drew a nice utside attack post, meets a proven crew that doesn't inspire, and a stablemate that will be way overbet; look out.
#2 Master Spy	Stiff ML favorite will be bet hard for Casse off the stakes 2nd, but that was on the Tapeta, and the turf debut wasn't nearly as sharp; backwheel time.
#3 Mt Logan	Logical sort has been 2nd in both starts, but the turf debut last time was a regression off the Tapeta run, and he too will be overbet; tread lightly here.
Race Summary	Tab the tote on the 7, as you'd like to see him live and taking money, and if it shows you can play him to win and place, though you'll get some added value by using him in the 50k guaranteed Pk5, as budget players will be singling the 2, even though he doesn't look nearly as opposing on the turf as he does on the Tapeta.

Woodbine - Race #8

#3 Landry	Class dropper was bet a bit in a big field on debut on the turf and wasn't a terrible 7th, and not far behind the chalk, and now adds Lasix and gets to the Tapeta; bombs away.
#2 Born to Be King	ML favorite and class dropper is the one to beat off the fast 3rd last time, but that also makes him 11-0-3-3, which is a bit tough to swallow at an underlaid price; second-best.
#10 Pardsy	MSW dropper has been facing eons better in all three starts, so this group should be to his liking, though it's not like he's done much running either; mixed signals in this corner.
Race Summary	The price will be right and then some on the pick, and it's not like the favorite is any great shakes, so if he moves forward with the Lasix, experience, and surface change, he's hardly without hope, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially in the late Pk4 as well, since a win would go a long way in blowing up the sequence.

Woodbine - Race #11

#3 Ron's Gizmo	ML longshot (20-1) takes the MSW drop after improving in his second start, actually fits nicely with these on paper, and has a ton of upside off just two lifetime starts too; upset special.
#4 Pound Green	Heavy hitter was a good 22nd on debut and now adds Lasix, so clearly he's going to be in with a big chance, but his margin for error is a scant one, at underlaid odds too; still, plenty scary.
#10 Irving	MSW dropper will like getting in for a tag, as he's been overmatched in his three career starts, but this wide draw is no bargain, and you know he'll be bet hard too; using underneath only.
Race Summary	That 20-1 ML is way too high on the 3, as he's taking the biggest drop in racing and has every right to move forward in the often pivotal third career start, but even 10-1 seems fair, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially to end the late Pk4 as well, since a win would blow things up, and he's got a lot better chance than that ML suggests, though it may be high enough to scare many off.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-13-2020, 07:29 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mountaineer - Race #1

#5 Inaweofnooneatall	This one has a little but of pace, but she also showed some finishing ability in the debut try. She's bred for the two-turn turf trip and may offer a fair price.
#9 Petrichor	Rolled maidens in the local debut last out when assuming command in the opening half mile and running off the screen. She might have some company today, but it's tough to discount her off that easy win.
#4 Unruly Julie	Has done nothing wrong in two local turf starts and just handled a similar group last time out. She's in the mix right back.
Race Summary	Inaweofnooneatall stretches out with a pretty decent pedigree for this trip, and she brings a trio of useful sprint races into this first route try.

Mountaineer - Race #7

#8 Miss Oxbow	Blinkers come off tonight, and that may allow her to relax a bit better in the early stages and find something better than the late-fading efforts to date.
#2 Iamthebesttoo	Well beaten in the debut run at 42-1, but the winner dropped all 14 of those beaten lengths on her, and she can play here at a price with any move forward off that run.
#10 Roar of Cali	Debuts for a capable team while not meeting the deepest bunch, and she gets a good draw to avoid any early issues further inside.
Race Summary	Miss Oxbow loses the blinks for this one, and it could lead to a bit different running style that allows her to relax a bit more in the early going. She caught a runaway winner last out and would be plenty playable at something like the 5/1 ML offering.

Mountaineer - Race #8

#7 It'smyintension	Meets a couple of solid pace players who might set things up for something from off the pace, and this one cuts back off a chasing two-turn try at Charles Town.
#4 Coach Machen	She's in the mix here, but she doesn't have much of a finishing gear and could again be vulnerable in deep stretch.
#5 Untapped Energy	Can sit a midpack trip with these, but she feels likely to catch one or two of them that are too tough for her tonight. Underneath?
Race Summary	It'smyintension tries the local footing for the first time, and she can get the right kind of trip behind a couple of fairly swift forward players.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-13-2020, 07:29 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #2

#1 Baby Ice	Was claimed in four of her last five, tired in her latest but can get a good trip in her first for the Cartegena stable.
#2 Takecharge Mirelle	Weakened last time, but came against much better; steps back down to where she won two races back. A good stalking trip is probable.
#7 Shall Return	Set the pace and was caught late last time, which is uncharacteristic of her style, which usually has here from just off the pace.
Race Summary	Baby Ice has the tactical speed to be where she needs to be and can make a serious run at the leaders. Won two straight in the winter and looks ready to return to that form.

Gulfstream Park - Race #6

#2 Diamonds Enjoy	Takes a significant drop after trying upper-level allowance and optional claiming company; was second the only time she was six furlongs and could settle into the distance after trying longer.
#5 R U Lucky	Set the pace and tired vs. better; does well at this level and can be a factor throughout.
#6 U S S Colton	Never got involved on the turf last time but broke his maiden in easy fashion two races back on the main track. Can immediately be a forward factor.
Race Summary	Diamonds Enjoy has tried much tougher spots and should have a more comfortable appearance here; can get a good stalking journey off a fast pace.

Gulfstream Park - Race #8

#3 Starship Taxi	Has been working on getting his second win and lands in a spot in which he should succeed; has the necessary finishing touch vs. these.
#4 Yes for Less	Rallied well for second the last time he was on dirt and can show some late energy here; could be the one to hold off.
#8 Acaseaday	Was on the front end of races at a higher level and could show more courage under these conditions.
Race Summary	Starship Taxi has been close lately and has a good chance to close this out with a solid run; can get win No. 2 here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-13-2020, 09:55 AM

Dallas Cowboys at LA Rams 9/13/20 - NFL

The Dallas Cowboys will visit SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, California to play the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday September 13 in the opening game of the NFL regular season for both on Sunday Night Football. Last season was disappointing for Dallas as the Cowboys finished 8-8 and missed the postseason. Jason Garrett is no longer head coach as Mike McCarthy took the reins and will debut on the Cowboys sideline Sunday.

Although Dallas played just .500 last season, the Cowboys had the number one offense in the NFL and were in the top 10 in defense. Quarterback Dak Prescott has been tagged with the franchise label and returns while the Cowboys have an excellent running attack led by star running back Ezekiel Elliott. Prescott has several weapons to throw to, including Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and rookie wideout CeeDee Lamb. Defensively, Dallas is led by linebackers Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch and defensive end Demarcus Lawrence.

Los Angeles suffered a severe Super Bowl hangover in 2019 finishing the regular season at 9-7 and missing the postseason. The Rams will no longer have Todd Gurley in the offensive backfield, but quarterback Jared Goff returns, who last season threw for 4,638 yards, 22 touchdowns but a disappointing 16 interceptions. The leading receivers for Los Angeles will be Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and Josh Reynolds. Taking over for Gurley at running back will be Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson Jr.

The Los Angeles defense has the best overall player in the NFL on that side of the ball in defensive end Aaron Donald. Surrounding Donald on the line will be Michael Brokers and Sebastian Joseph-Day. The linebackers unit will be led by Micah Kiser, Samson Ebukam and Kenny Young, while the secondary has talented Jalen Ramsey at cornerback and Darious Williams and John Johnson III at safety.

Recent Betting Trends

Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 on fieldturf
The OVER has cashed in 6 of the Cowboys last 7 versus the NFC
Los Angeles is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 versus the NFC
The OVER has cashed in 7 of the Rams last 10 as the dog

Free NFL Pick: Dallas Cowboys -2

Dallas will once again have one of the best offenses in the NFL with Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott and Amari Cooper leading the way. The Cowboys will also want to impress first-year coach Mike McCarthy with a strong effort in the opening game of the regular season on primetime. The Rams are lacking a top tier running back and have problems on the offensive line that will plague Jared Goff all season. Final Score Prediction, Dallas Cowboys win and cover ATS 31-21

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-13-2020, 09:55 AM

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers 9/13/20 - NFL

On Sunday September 13th, the Arizona Cardinals will visit the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California for the opening game of the 2020 NFL regular season for both. Arizona behind quarterback Kyler Murray are expected to have a potent passing game. The Cardinals acquired DeAndre Hopkins from the Houston Texas during the off-season and the talented wide receiver will line up alongside veteran Larry Fitzgerald and up-and-coming star Christian Kirk.

Murray played well in his rookie season during 2019 showing an uncanny ability to remain poised, throw accurately against NFL pass coverages and make the big plays when needed. Defense will be the weak link for the Cardinals. Arizona has a speedy defense that looks to force opponents to turn over the ball but will be hard-pressed in stopping the running game for San Francisco in Week 1.

San Francisco would like to put its Super Bowl loss to Kansas City this past February behind them with a strong performance against Arizona. Jimmy Garoppolo returns under center for the 49ers. Garoppolo led the 49ers offense to fourth in the NFL in total yards and second in both rushing yards and points scored per game. The offensive line remains solid, but lost future hall-of-famer Joe Staley who retired but Trent Williams was signed to fill the position left vacant. The 49ers receiving corps will look different as Emmanuel Sanders is gone and Richie James Jr. and Deebo Samuel have injuries that could cause them to miss early games.

San Francisco had the NFL's best defense against the pass last season allowing only 169.2 yards per game through the air and sacked the quarterback 48 times which was sixth in the league. Ten of the 11 starters on defense from last season return for the 49ers. Last season, San Francisco swept both games of the series against Arizona. The Cardinals put up a good fight in the first outing to lose by three points and were defeated by 10 points in the second meeting between the two.

Recent Betting Trends

Arizona is 3-1-2- ATS in its last 6 versus NFC opponents
The OVER has cashed in 6 of the Cardinals last 8 on grass
San Francisco is 5-2-1 ATS in its last 8 versus NFC opponents
The OVER has cashed in 8 of the 49ers last 11 versus NFC opponents

Free NFL Pick: Arizona Cardinals +7.5

San Francisco is likely to suffer a slight hangover from its Super Bowl loss when facing Arizona in Week 1. The 49ers offense must get used to having new wide receivers and the defense will have its hands full with the trio of top receivers for Arizona and dual-threat quarterback Kyler Murray. Arizona has covered the number and three of the last four played in San Francisco and in four the last five overall against the 49ers. Final Score Prediction, San Francisco 49ers win but fall short ATS 27-24.