Service Plays Sunday 9/13/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VSI

3 over-8-reds

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy Golf

4 - S. Burns -130 over H Higgs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Adam Silverstein

ATLANTA -1
SEATTLE @ ATLANTA | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
10:59 AM
This game is basically a pick 'em because there are a lot of unknowns about the Falcons. Will Todd Gurley be rejuvenated with a move to Atlanta? Will Keanu Neal be back to 100%? Which version of Matt Ryan are we going to get this season? At full strength in Week 1, I'm siding with the Falcons getting off to a hot start at home. The offensive line is rebuilt, they have a complete set of playmakers, and Neal will team with Deion Jones and Dante Fowler to play a big role in slowing down Russell Wilson. The swing on this line is not a coincidence, and it's also not stopping me.

6-1-1 IN LAST 8 SEA ATS PICKS | +486

9-4 IN LAST 13 ATL ATS PICKS | +463

GREEN BAY +2.5
GREEN BAY @ MINNESOTA | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
10:32 AM
It was strange to see people act this offseason as if the Packers and Aaron Rodgers are done. Green Bay went 13-3 last year (sure, it probably should've been more like 12-5), and that was in Year 1 under a first-time coach in Matt LaFleur. The Packers are going to be able to run on the Vikings with Aaron Jones, take advantage with big plays by Aaron Rodgers and overcome the limited homefield advantage to open the season with a road upset ... as long as they don't let Dalvin Cook run wild. Back the Pack.

19-6-1 IN LAST 26 MIN ATS PICKS | +1249

5-1 IN LAST 6 GB ATS PICKS | +390

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Winningham

Eagles -6.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Winning Sports Plays

Cleveland Browns +8 (GOY)
Miami Dolphins +8
New York Jets +7
Washington +7
Arizona Cardinals +7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny White

NEW ORLEANS -3.5
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS | 9/13 | 4:25 PM EDT
11:16 AM
This is not a fade of Tampa Bay because of the Tom Brady hype, but more the talented New Orleans Saints. I have the Saints' offensive line ranked No. 1, the offense No. 2 behind Kansas City and the defense No. 5. I also like the angle that Brady has had no game snaps with his new teammates. No preseason is a big advantage for New Orleans.

N.Y. JETS +6.5
N.Y. JETS @ BUFFALO | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
11:09 AM
A divisional rivalry in Week 1. Buffalo's Josh Allen is one of the least accurate quarterbacks when throwing the deep ball, and the New York Jets defense was No. 2 against the run last year. A big reason why both meetings last season were very low-scoring. Buffalo won 17-16 at New York and the Jets posted a 13-6 road triumph in the season finale as the Bills rested many starters for the playoffs. With no preseason, I would expect these two defenses to dominate, giving more value to the plus-6.5 points.

3-0 IN LAST 3 BUF ATS PICKS | +300

3-1 IN LAST 4 NYJ ATS PICKS | +187

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bill Marzano

DENVER +8.5
L.A. CLIPPERS @ DENVER | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
10:37 AM
The Nuggets have a ton of fight in them and won't go down easy as they are 5-1 SU in elimination games this postseason. But Denver will need huge performances from Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic, as well as key contributions from role players like Michael Porter Jr., if it hopes to force a Game 7. The Clippers' bench didn't show up in Game 5, plain and simple. Los Angeles is trying to clinch the franchise's first conference finals appearance. The Nuggets are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 conference semifinal games.

12-6 IN LAST 18 NBA PICKS | +475
3-2 IN LAST 5 LAC ATS PICKS | +80


TAMPA BAY -145
TAMPA BAY @ N.Y. ISLANDERS | 9/13 | 3:00 PM EDT
10:16 AM
The Islanders did a fantastic job to hold on and win Game 3, keeping this a series. However, winning back-to-back games won't be easy, as the Lightning haven't suffered consecutive losses yet this postseason. Tampa Bay has been the better team this series, so look for it to put together one of its best efforts of this series. The Lightning have won 14 of the last 19 meetings overall.

23-14 IN LAST 37 NHL ML PICKS | +466
10-2 IN LAST 12 TB ML PICKS | +729

7-4 IN LAST 11 NYI ML PICKS | +213

SEATTLE +135
SEATTLE @ ARIZONA | 9/13 | 4:10 PM EDT
10:30 AM
Seattle's Justin Dunn is 3-1 on the season, while Arizona's Luke Weaver is just 1-6 with a 7.12 ERA. The Mariners are swinging the bat well right now and have won seven of their last 10 contests. The Diamondbacks are just 5-10 in the final game of a series while Seattle is 7-4. Arizona is just 1-12 in its last 13 against right-handers, 1-8 in its last nine as a favorite and 3-15 in its last 18 following a SU loss.

2-1 IN LAST 3 MLB ML PICKS | +75


BUFFALO -6.5
N.Y. JETS @ BUFFALO | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
10:11 AM
The Bills are going to be a tough team, as they have plenty of talent up and down their roster and a very solid defense. The offense should be even better this year as QB Josh Allen continues to get stronger with each start and has plenty of weapons around him. He possesses a very strong arm and will stretch a Jets defense that is missing several players who have either been traded, opted opt or gotten hurt. New York has a ton of injuries on offense, so it should be a big day for Buffalo's defense.

TAMPA BAY +3.5
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS | 9/13 | 4:25 PM EDT
FRI 9/11
For the record, I have the Buccaneers beating the Chiefs in Tampa Bay in the Super Bowl, becoming the first team to win the title at home. The hype is real. Tom Brady has a ton of weapons and Tampa Bay will be much-improved on defense. The Buccaneers’ offensive scheme is going to cause a lot of matchup advantages. Without Jameis Winston turning the ball over, Tampa Bay will be better on both sides of the football. Drew Brees still has a ton of weapons at his disposal. New Orleans has a solid defense. This is going to be a close game, decided by a field goal.

4-1 IN LAST 5 NO ATS PICKS | +289

DALLAS -145
DALLAS @ L.A. RAMS | 9/13 | 8:20 PM EDT
FRI 9/11
The Rams were hoping to break in their new stadium in style, but there will be no fans in the stands. Los Angeles will have to wait to celebrate its first win in another week. This is a tough opening Sunday night draw. The Rams have some offensive line issues. I am still not sold on Jared Goff, and wonder if he will be able to limit his turnovers. The Cowboys are a very talented team with a ton to prove. Dak Prescott is coming off a career year, and his supporting cast is loaded with offensive weapons. The Dallas defense will be improved.

NEW ENGLAND -6.5
MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
FRI 9/11
A new era begins in New England with Cam Newton taking over. He will be playing with a huge chip on his shoulder. The Patriots are going to be a really good team with Newton at QB. His ability to run the football will open up the downfield passing game. The Patriots are still going to be great on defense. Bill Belichick is out to show he can win without Tom Brady. The Dolphins were 5-11 last year and although they are improved, Miami will struggle here, Look for Ryan Fitzpatrick to make a few big plays but also some costly ones as usual. The Dolphins are 1-7 ATS their last eight games in New England.

4-2 IN LAST 6 NE ATS PICKS | +177

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brett Anderson

WASHINGTON +5.5
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:43 PM
The Football Team won only three games last season, but it played the Eagles close twice. And Philly is already banged up, especially at WR and on the O-line. That's not ideal against a team whose strength is on the D-line. The WFT won't have fans, but that could be a plus: Eagles backers won't be able to take over FedEx Field this time. Grab the points with the home divisional 'dog.

ARIZONA +7
ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO | 9/13 | 4:25 PM EDT
THU 9/10
The Cardinals played the 49ers close in both meetings last season, and Arizona has added DeAndre Hopkins along with several other new pieces. Kyler Murray should be even better in Year 2. Two Niners receivers, Deebo Samuel and rookie Brandon Aiyuk, are listed as questionable, while Emmanuel Sanders is now on the Saints. The Cardinals should at least be able to stay within a TD. Take the points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Matt Severance
SEVERANCE PAYS
FRI 9/11

BUFFALO -6.5
N.Y. JETS @ BUFFALO | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
The Jets lost their two best defensive players, Jamal Adams (trade) and CJ Mosley (opt out), this offseason. A third projected starter, Patrick Onwuasor, is on injured reserve. Two of the team's top three wideouts, Breshad Perriman and rookie Denzel Mims, are in question for Sunday. NY is 3-10 ATS in its past 13 AFC East games. Meanwhile, this might be the best Bills team since the 1990s. What am I missing here? Jump on this spread before it climbs to Buffalo -7 or higher.

[rocky57]

H&H Sports (Final Update)
NFL
Triple Dime - Colts -6.5 (-120)
Triple Dime - Buccaneers +3.5
Double Dime - Rams +3 (-120)
Dime Play - Seahawks +1.5
Dime Play - Vikings -123 (Moneyline)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony George

4 Units- #910 Kanas City (-140) over Pittsburgh *2 EST

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Victor King

3* Football Shootout

Bucs-Saints over

In Week One action of the 2002 NFL Season, our Totals Team is going to be going UNDER in most if our games. Except this one. I fact, this Bucs @ Saints game will be our ONLY ‘Over’ of the entire opening weekend. The OU line for this NFC South Division game opened at 49.5 points. As we type our writeup on Monday afternoon, the line has not moved. It still stands squarely at 49.5. Make sure you get your action in before it rises into the low 50’s. This Saints / Bucs series comes in on a recent OVER run. Four of the last five meetings have gone Over the Total (4-1 O/U). Average OU line: 49.9… Average combined points: 58.2… Average OU margin: +8.3 points per game….

In my article for the recent September issue of the PLAYBOOK ADVANTAGE, I did a database study on some of the recent OU tendencies in same-division play. And this is the only particular division in which the OVER has been profitable as of late. In the last two seasons, NFC SOUTH Division games have gone 12-2 O/U when (a) the home teams is FAVORED (like the SAINTS), and (b) the OU Line is 60 or less points…

All we are asking for in this one is for history to repeat itself. Like it does numerous times when we are querying in our database. For instance, New Orleans has been one the most reliable HOME ‘Over’ teams in all of football. In the last four years, New Orleans home games have averaged 60.5 combined points, 52.6, 59.8, and 51.3. The SAINTS have gone 9-1 O/U since 2013 as division home favorites when the OU line is 51 or less points (including a perfect 6- 0 O/U last 3 years). And to start off the season, our Totals Tipsheet newsletter reveals that New Orleans’ GAME ONES have gone a perfect 6-0 O/U in the last six seasons, with a gaudy average of 64.3 combined points per game. On the flip side, all sharp OU bettors know how strong Tampa OVERS were last season. They were the #1 Over team in all of football. In fact, The Bucs’ last 10 same-CONFERENCE games went a perfect 10-0 O/U to close the year (62.0 combined points per game). In the last three seasons, Buccaneer ROAD games have been ‘All About the OVER’. TAMPA has gone 18-5-1 O/U on the ROAD in there last 3 years, including 8-1 O/U when the OU line is 48 or more points. Average OU margin in these games: +18.1!

Three separate Game One queries ALL point to a higher-than-anticipated final score. The first one looks at same-conference game with HIGH Over / Under lines (like this one).
(1) 9-1 O/U since 2012 / 5-0 O/U since 2014: All NFC Conferece GAME ONE favs of > 3 pts when the OU Line is a HIGH > 48 points (SAINTS are -3.65 OU is 49.5)…

The next query looks at each team’s win totals from last season.
(2) 16-5-1 O/U since 2000 / 8-0 O/U since 2010: All GAME OINE favorites of 6 < pts who WON 13 or more games last year (SAINTS) versus any opponent two WON 7 or less games last year (BUCCANEERS). Average OU margin in these games: +9.2 ppg…

The final Week One query looks at any teams playing with the motivation of division REVENGE. New Orleans who both meetings against Tampa Bay last season (31-24 and 34-17).
(3) 11-1 O/U since 2011: All GAME ONE same-DIVISION underdogs of > 3 pts playing with REVENGE, when the OU line is > 38 points (BUCCANEERS)…

I ran one more query for NFL games in the first month of the season with a (relatively) HIGH Over / Under line. This one seals the deal for us.
20-8-1 O/U last 7 years (71% Overs): All games in the FIRST month of the season (GAMES 1-4) when (a) the OU Line is in the range of 48 to 52 points (BUCS @ SAINTS), and (b) the pointspread in the game is < 1 point. In same-DIVISION play, the results of this query improve to 8-1 O/U 89% Overs).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Maddux

Rams +3 -115
Raiders/Carolina over 47.5
Teaser Packers +8.5 & Colts -2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dwayne Bryant

3% Under 8 Red sox game

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Tom Stryker

15-6 ATS NFL CONFERENCE CRUSHER
Chargers

41-17 ATS NFL SUNDAY NIGHT SUPERPLAY
Cowboys