Saturday 9/19/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-16-2020, 09:07 AM

College football odds Week 3: Opening lines & odds movement
Patrick Everson

Quarterback Ian Book and Notre Dame, coming off a win but failing to cover against Duke, host South Florida in Week 3. PointsBet USA opened the Fighting Irish as 26-point favorites.

College football odds for Week 3 are on the betting board and already getting action. The ACC dots the list of key matchups, including No. 13 Central Florida facing a Georgia Tech team coming off a road upset of Florida State.

PointsBet USA provided insights on college football Week 3 opening lines, early line movement, sharp money and public betting for this week's matchups.

College football Week 3 odds

These are the current College football Week 3 odds for the premier games on the schedule, as of September 14.

Wake Forest at NC State odds

Opening line
North Carolina State -3, Over/Under 55.5

Why the line moved
PointsBet USA's Patrick Eichner said Monday that the Wolfpack moved to -2.5 this morning on interesting early betting splits. Sixty-five percent of tickets are on North Carolina State, but 60 percent of the point-spread money is on Wake Forest.

(13) UCF at Georgia Tech odds

Opening line
Georgia Tech +7.5, Over/Under 60

Why the line moved
PointsBet USA's Eichner said there was an early move to Central Florida -7, but more to stay in line with the market. Still, an opinion is forming. Ticket count is split 50/50, but about 80 percent of the early money is on UCF.

Charlotte at (11) North Carolina odds

Opening line
North Carolina -27, Over/Under 61

Why the line moved
This line bounced around quite a bit early at PointsBet USA, stretching to 28.5 Monday morning before pulling back to 27.5. Seventy percent of early spread bets and money are on big underdog Charlotte to cover.

(18) Miami at (16) Louisville odds

Opening line
Louisville -1.5, Over/Under 61

Why the line moved
This line is already up a full point Monday at PointsBet USA, with host Louisville 2.5-point chalk. But Miami has its share of takers, landing 70 percent of early money on the point spread, while Louisville is getting 65 percent of early tickets.

Syracuse at Pittsburgh odds

Opening line
Pittsburgh -20.5, Over/Under 50.5

Why the line moved
PointsBet USA moved to Pitt -21.5, thanks to early interest in the Panthers. "All Pitt in this one," Eichner said. "About 90 percent of spread tickets and handle are on the Panthers."

South Florida at (7) Notre Dame odds

Opening line
Notre Dame -26, Over/Under 53

Why the line moved
PointsBet USA's Eichner said this game is similar to Syracuse-Pitt early, with Notre Dame taking 90 percent of tickets and bets by Monday. However, there's not enough money in the pot to move the line yet.

Tulsa at (12) Oklahoma State odds

Opening line
Oklahoma State -22.5, Over/Under 65

Why the line moved
There was limited action and no movement yet on this game by Monday afternoon at PointsBet USA.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-16-2020, 09:07 AM

103LA LAFAYETTE -104 GEORGIA ST
LA LAFAYETTE is 41-21 ATS (17.9 Units) in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992.

107WAKE FOREST -108 NC STATE
NC STATE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when the total is 56.5-63 in the last 3 seasons.

109UCF -110 GEORGIA TECH
GEORGIA TECH is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) off an extremely close road win by 3 points or less since 1992.

113BOSTON COLLEGE -114 DUKE
DUKE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games as an favorite of 3.5-10 in the last 3 seasons.

115MIAMI -116 LOUISVILLE
MIAMI is 16-5 ATS (10.5 Units) after gaining 300 or more rushing yards last game since 1992.

119SYRACUSE -120 PITTSBURGH
SYRACUSE is 20-36 ATS (-19.6 Units) as an underdog of 10.5-21 since 1992.

121APPALACHIAN ST -122 MARSHALL
APPALACHIAN ST is 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) in road games in the last 3 seasons.

123LIBERTY -124 W KENTUCKY
LIBERTY is 13-3 ATS (9.7 Units) in road games in the first half of the season since 1992.

125LOUISIANA TECH -126 SOUTHERN MISS
SOUTHERN MISS are 51-33 ATS (14.7 Units) in the first month of the season since 1992.

127TEXAS ST -128 LA MONROE
LA MONROE is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) after playing their last game on the road in the last 3 seasons.

129SMU -130 NORTH TEXAS
SMU is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road games when the total >=63 in the last 3 seasons.

133NAVY -134 TULANE
TULANE is 6-0 ATS (6 Units) after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons.

135TROY -136 MIDDLE TENN ST
MIDDLE TENN ST is 16-5 ATS (10.5 Units) after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game since 1992.

141TULSA -142 OKLAHOMA ST
OKLAHOMA ST is 13-2 ATS (10.8 Units) in home games as an favorite of 21.5-31 since 1992.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-16-2020, 09:07 AM

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Saturday, September 19

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LA LAFAYETTE (1 - 0) at GEORGIA ST (0 - 0) - 9/19/2020, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAFAYETTE is 46-27 ATS (+16.3 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAFAYETTE is 1-0 against the spread versus GEORGIA ST over the last 3 seasons
LA LAFAYETTE is 1-0 straight up against GEORGIA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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FLA ATLANTIC (0 - 0) at GA SOUTHERN (1 - 0) - 9/19/2020, 4:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WAKE FOREST (0 - 1) at NC STATE (0 - 0) - 9/19/2020, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WAKE FOREST is 2-0 against the spread versus NC STATE over the last 3 seasons
WAKE FOREST is 2-0 straight up against NC STATE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UCF (0 - 0) at GEORGIA TECH (1 - 0) - 9/19/2020, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CHARLOTTE (0 - 1) at N CAROLINA (1 - 0) - 9/19/2020, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BOSTON COLLEGE (0 - 0) at DUKE (0 - 1) - 9/19/2020, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DUKE is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIAMI (1 - 0) at LOUISVILLE (1 - 0) - 9/19/2020, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SYRACUSE (0 - 1) at PITTSBURGH (1 - 0) - 9/19/2020, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SYRACUSE is 20-36 ATS (-19.6 Units) as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 2-0 against the spread versus SYRACUSE over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 2-0 straight up against SYRACUSE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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APPALACHIAN ST (1 - 0) at MARSHALL (1 - 0) - 9/19/2020, 1:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
APPALACHIAN ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
APPALACHIAN ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MARSHALL is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LIBERTY (0 - 0) at W KENTUCKY (0 - 1) - 9/19/2020, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LIBERTY is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LOUISIANA TECH (0 - 0) at SOUTHERN MISS (0 - 1) - 9/19/2020, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOUISIANA TECH is 2-0 against the spread versus SOUTHERN MISS over the last 3 seasons
SOUTHERN MISS is 1-1 straight up against LOUISIANA TECH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TEXAS ST (0 - 2) at LA MONROE (0 - 1) - 9/19/2020, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA MONROE is 35-54 ATS (-24.4 Units) in home games since 1992.
LA MONROE is 35-54 ATS (-24.4 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
LA MONROE is 32-51 ATS (-24.1 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
LA MONROE is 22-39 ATS (-20.9 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA MONROE is 1-1 against the spread versus TEXAS ST over the last 3 seasons
LA MONROE is 2-0 straight up against TEXAS ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SMU (1 - 0) at NORTH TEXAS (1 - 0) - 9/19/2020, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NORTH TEXAS is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NORTH TEXAS is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NORTH TEXAS is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NORTH TEXAS is 1-1 against the spread versus SMU over the last 3 seasons
NORTH TEXAS is 1-1 straight up against SMU over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NAVY (0 - 1) at TULANE (1 - 0) - 9/19/2020, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NAVY is 183-135 ATS (+34.5 Units) in all games since 1992.
NAVY is 183-135 ATS (+34.5 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 101-63 ATS (+31.7 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NAVY is 86-47 ATS (+34.3 Units) in road games since 1992.
NAVY is 86-47 ATS (+34.3 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 55-31 ATS (+20.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NAVY is 165-120 ATS (+33.0 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
NAVY is 69-45 ATS (+19.5 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TULANE is 1-1 against the spread versus NAVY over the last 3 seasons
TULANE is 1-1 straight up against NAVY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TROY (0 - 0) at MIDDLE TENN ST (0 - 1) - 9/19/2020, 4:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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S FLORIDA (1 - 0) at NOTRE DAME (1 - 0) - 9/19/2020, 2:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NOTRE DAME is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TULSA (0 - 0) at OKLAHOMA ST (0 - 0) - 9/19/2020, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA ST is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points since 1992.
OKLAHOMA ST is 95-69 ATS (+19.1 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
TULSA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in a road game where the total is between 63.5 and 70 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA ST is 1-0 against the spread versus TULSA over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA ST is 1-0 straight up against TULSA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (0 - 0) at BAYLOR (0 - 0) - 9/19/2020, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-16-2020, 09:08 AM

NCAAF

Week 3

Trend Report

Saturday, September 19

Tulsa @ Oklahoma State
Tulsa
Tulsa is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Tulsa's last 15 games on the road
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tulsa
Oklahoma State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tulsa

Syracuse @ Pittsburgh
Syracuse
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Syracuse's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Syracuse's last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Syracuse
Pittsburgh is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games when playing Syracuse

Liberty @ Western Kentucky
Liberty
Liberty is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Liberty is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Western Kentucky is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

Austin Peay @ Cincinnati
Austin Peay
Austin Peay is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Austin Peay is 1-20 SU in its last 21 games on the road
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games at home

Navy @ Tulane
Navy
Navy is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tulane
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Navy's last 6 games on the road
Tulane
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tulane's last 5 games
Tulane is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Louisiana-Lafayette @ Georgia State
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Lafayette is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Louisiana-Lafayette is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Georgia State
Georgia State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Georgia State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Boston College @ Duke
Boston College
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Boston College's last 11 games on the road
Boston College is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 games on the road
Duke
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Duke's last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Duke's last 12 games

Houston @ Baylor
Houston
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Houston's last 14 games on the road
Houston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Baylor
Baylor is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baylor's last 6 games at home

Appalachian State @ Marshall
Appalachian State
Appalachian State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Appalachian State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Marshall
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Marshall's last 9 games at home
Marshall is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

South Florida @ Notre Dame
South Florida
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of South Florida's last 5 games
South Florida is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Notre Dame
Notre Dame is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Notre Dame is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Stephen F. Austin @ Texas-San Antonio
Stephen F. Austin
Stephen F. Austin is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Stephen F. Austin is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Texas-San Antonio
Texas-San Antonio is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Texas-San Antonio's last 7 games

Central Florida @ Georgia Tech
Central Florida
Central Florida is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Central Florida is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games on the road
Georgia Tech
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Georgia Tech's last 9 games
Georgia Tech is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games

Florida Atlantic @ Georgia Southern
Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Florida Atlantic is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Georgia Southern
Georgia Southern is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Georgia Southern's last 5 games at home

Charlotte @ North Carolina
Charlotte
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Charlotte's last 6 games
Charlotte is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
North Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of North Carolina's last 5 games at home
North Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Troy @ Middle Tennessee
Troy
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Troy's last 8 games when playing Middle Tennessee
Troy is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Middle Tennessee's last 8 games when playing Troy
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Middle Tennessee's last 7 games at home

The Citadel @ Clemson
The Citadel
The Citadel is 2-23 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The Citadel is 2-23 SU in its last 25 games
Clemson
Clemson is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Clemson is 24-1 SU in its last 25 games

Southern Methodist @ North Texas
Southern Methodist
Southern Methodist is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing North Texas
Southern Methodist is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing North Texas
North Texas
North Texas is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of North Texas's last 5 games at home

Central Arkansas @ Arkansas State
Central Arkansas
Central Arkansas is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Central Arkansas is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Arkansas State
Arkansas State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Arkansas State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Louisiana Tech @ Southern Miss
Louisiana Tech
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Louisiana Tech's last 13 games on the road
Louisiana Tech is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
Southern Miss
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Southern Miss's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Southern Miss's last 7 games at home

Texas State @ Louisiana-Monroe
Texas State
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Texas State's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Texas State's last 21 games
Louisiana-Monroe
Louisiana-Monroe is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Texas State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Louisiana-Monroe's last 7 games when playing Texas State

Miami-FL @ Louisville
Miami-FL
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Miami-FL's last 20 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Miami-FL's last 21 games
Louisville
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Louisville's last 5 games
Louisville is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

Wake Forest @ North Carolina State
Wake Forest
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Wake Forest's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Wake Forest's last 6 games when playing on the road against North Carolina St
North Carolina State
North Carolina State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Wake Forest
North Carolina State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Wake Forest

Abilene Christian @ Texas El Paso
Abilene Christian
Abilene Christian is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Abilene Christian is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Texas El Paso
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas El Paso's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Texas El Paso's last 9 games at home

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-16-2020, 09:08 AM

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 3

Saturday, September 19

Syracuse @ Pittsburgh

Game 119-120
September 19, 2020 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Syracuse
81.960
Pittsburgh
89.919
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 8
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 22
50
Dunkel Pick:
Syracuse
(+22); Over

Liberty @ Western Kentucky

Game 123-124
September 19, 2020 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Liberty
71.561
Western Kentucky
88.242
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Western Kentucky
by 16 1/2
62
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Western Kentucky
by 13
54 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Western Kentucky
(-13); Over

Houston @ Baylor

Game 143-144
September 19, 2020 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
84.192
Baylor
104.682
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baylor
by 20 1/2
71
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baylor
by 4 1/2
62 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Baylor
(-4 1/2); Over

Navy @ Tulane

Game 133-134
September 19, 2020 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Navy
78.629
Tulane
78.510
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Navy
Even
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tulane
by 8
49
Dunkel Pick:
Navy
(+8); Over

Austin Peay @ Cincinnati

Game 147-148
September 19, 2020 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Austin Peay
65.573
Cincinnati
94.204
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 28 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 33 1/2
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Austin Peay
(+33 1/2); Under

LA-Lafayette @ Georgia State

Game 103-104
September 19, 2020 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA-Lafayette
97.646
Georgia State
69.212
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA-Lafayette
by 28 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA-Lafayette
by 17
61
Dunkel Pick:
LA-Lafayette
(-17); Under

Boston College @ Duke

Game 113-114
September 19, 2020 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston College
83.395
Duke
83.142
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston College
Even
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Duke
by 6
51
Dunkel Pick:
Boston College
(+6); Over

Tulsa @ Oklahoma State

Game 141-142
September 19, 2020 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tulsa
77.695
Oklahoma State
102.464
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma State
by 25
61
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma State
by 20 1/2
66
Dunkel Pick:
Oklahoma State
(-20 1/2); Over

Appalachian St @ Marshall

Game 121-122
September 19, 2020 @ 1:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Appalachian St
94.079
Marshall
84.823
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Appalachian St
by 9 1/2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Appalachian St
by 3 1/2
59
Dunkel Pick:
Appalachian St
(-3 1/2); Under

South Florida @ Notre Dame

Game 139-140
September 19, 2020 @ 2:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
South Florida
73.632
Notre Dame
105.616
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Notre Dame
by 32
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Notre Dame
by 24 1/2
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Notre Dame
(-24 1/2); Under

Stephen F Austin @ TX-San Antonio

Game 149-150
September 19, 2020 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Stephen F Austin
52.926
TX-San Antonio
65.264
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
TX-San Antonio
by 12 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
TX-San Antonio
by 14 12
53 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Stephen F Austin
(+14 1/2); Under

Florida Atlantic @ Georgia Southern

Game 105-106
September 19, 2020 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Florida Atlantic
84.807
Georgia Southern
82.602
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Florida Atlantic
by 2
63
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Florida Atlantic
by 5 1/2
50
Dunkel Pick:
Georgia Southern
(+5 1/2); Over

Central Florida @ Georgia Tech

Game 109-110
September 19, 2020 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Central Florida
90.308
Georgia Tech
85.565
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Central Florida
by 5
64
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Central Florida
by 7 1/2
60
Dunkel Pick:
Georgia Tech
(+7 1/2); Over

Charlotte @ North Carolina

Game 111-112
September 19, 2020 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Charlotte
70.241
North Carolina
103.147
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
North Carolina
by 33
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
North Carolina
by 26 1/2
64
Dunkel Pick:
North Carolina
(-26 1/2); Under

The Citadel @ Clemson

Game 151-152
September 19, 2020 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
The Citadel
58.964
Clemson
119.932
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Clemson
by 61
61
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Clemson
by 43 1/2
57 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Clemson
(-43 1/2); Over

Troy @ Middle Tennessee St

Game 135-136
September 19, 2020 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Troy
69.443
Middle Tennessee
68.633
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Troy
by 1
67
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Troy
by 3 1/2
64
Dunkel Pick:
Middle Tennessee
(+3 1/2); Over

SMU @ North Texas

Game 129-130
September 19, 2020 @ 6:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
SMU
82.508
North Texas
70.753
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
SMU
by 12
66
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
SMU
by 14 1/2
71
Dunkel Pick:
North Texas
(+14 1/2); Under

Central Arkansas @ Arkansas St

Game 153-154
September 19, 2020 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Central Arkansas
65.277
Arkansas St
86.463
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arkansas St
by 21
64
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arkansas St
by 17
61 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arkansas St
(-17); Over

Louisiana Tech @ Southern Miss

Game 125-126
September 19, 2020 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Louisiana Tech
72.259
Southern Miss
80.258
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Southern Miss
by 8
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Southern Miss
by 5
57 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Southern Miss
(-5); Under

Miami-FL @ Louisville

Game 115-116
September 19, 2020 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami-FL
87.952
Louisville
85.611
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami-FL
by 2 1/2
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Louisville
by 2 1/2
64
Dunkel Pick:
Miami-FL
(+2 1/2); Under

Texas State @ LA-Monroe

Game 127-128
September 19, 2020 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Texas State
64.943
LA-Monroe
72.452
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA-Monroe
by 7 1/2
73
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Texas State
by 5
62 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA-Monroe
(+5); Over

Wake Forest @ NC State

Game 107-108
September 19, 2020 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Wake Forest
85.368
NC State
71.544
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Wake Forest
by 14
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NC State
by 3
55 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Wake Forest
(+3); Under

Abilene Christian @ UTEP

Game 155-156
September 19, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Abilene Christian
49.530
UTEP
60.389
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
UTEP
by 11
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
UTEP
by 4
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
UTEP
(-4); Under

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-16-2020, 09:09 AM

College Football Tech Trends - Week 3
Bruce Marshall

Week 3 of the College Football season kicks off on Saturday Sept. 19 and we've identified betting trends and angles for key matchups between FBS and FCS matchups. We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Saturday, Sept. 19

UL-LAFAYETTE at GEORGIA STATE (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Ragin’ Cajuns on a 17-7-2 spread uptick since early 2018 for Napier.
Panthers struggling as dog, only 4-10-4 in role since 2018.

Tech edge: UL-Lafayette, based on team trends.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC at GEORGIA SOUTHERN (ESPN, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Taggart now at FAU, was only 8-13-1 in 1+ years vs. line at FSU, as his once-gaudy spread success had waned.
Owls covered 5 of 6 on road last season for Lane Kiffin, who posted a 10-4 spread mark in 2019.
GSU didn’t cover opener vs. Campbell, but still 10-4 vs. spread last 14 at Statesboro.

Tech edge: Georgia Southern, based on team trends.

WAKE FOREST at NC STATE (ACC, 8:00 p.m. ET)

This Tobacco Road rivalry series has one of strongest home-team trends in ACC, with host 11-2 vs. points last 13 meetings.
NCS, however, enters 2020 having dropped 10 of last 11 against the number, and only 1-5 vs. points last six at Raleigh.
Wake has won and covered last two meetings but Deacs dropped all four vs. spread on ACC trail a year ago.

Tech edge: Slight to Wake Forest, based on recent NCS negatives.

UCF at GEORGIA TECH (ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Golden Knights covered all four vs. non-AAC foes in 2019, now 10-3 vs. spread last 13 vs. those entries.
Jackets struggled in Collins debut in 2019, only 3-8-1 vs. line, but did shock Florida State in opener last Saturday.
GT still just 1-6 vs. spread as host at Bobby Dodd Stadium/Grant Field LY.

Tech edge: UCF, based on team trends.

CHARLOTTE at NORTH CAROLINA (ESPN3, 3:00 p.m. ET)

49ers improved last season but were still only 2-5 vs. line away from Charlotte.
Charlotte did cover 2020 opener at App State.
Mack Brown closed last season with a rush at UNC, winning and covering handily in last three, and win/cover steak now at 4 after success vs. Syracuse in opener.

Tech edge: UNC, based on team trends.

BOSTON COLLEGE at DUKE (ESPN3, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Hafley takes over at BC. Under Addazio, Eagles were a pretty spunky underdog, 13-5-1 vs. spread in role the past three years.
Also 11-2 vs. spread last 13 as ACC visitor.
Cutcliffe sagged to 4-6-2 spread mark in 2019 but did cover 2020 opener at ND.
Duke 5-10-2 vs. ACC since 2018 (counts ND game).

Tech edge: BC, based on team trends.

MIAMI-FLA at LOUISVILLE (ABC, 7:30 p.m. ET)

Canes disappointed last season but were 3-0 as underdog for Diaz.
Miami also entered 2010 on 11-19 spread skid, but did cover opener vs. UAB.
Cards in revenge mode after 52-27 loss at Hard Rock Stadium LY, but Sattterfield now 5-2 vs. spread at home since arriving, and his teams at App State and ‘Ville are 17-8-1 vs. spread since 2018.
Canes “under” 27-13 since 2017.

Tech edge: Louisville and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

SYRACUSE at PITTSBURGH (ACC, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Old rivals to the days each campaigned as an Eastern Independent.
Pitt has covered last 3 and 9 of last 11 in series.
Cuse dipped to 4-8 SU and vs. line in 2019 after a smashing 2018, and gave up late cover in last week’s opener at UNC.
Orange only 2-7 as dog since last season.
“Unders” 24-10 in Pitt games entering 2020.

Tech edge: “Under” and Pitt, based on “totals” and team trends.

APP STATE at MARSHALL (CBSSN, 1:30 p.m. ET)

Mounties entered 2020 on 22-8-1 spread uptick since late in 2017 season (though missed cover in opener vs. Charlotte), also 11-2 vs. number last 13 as visitor.
Herd entered this season 5-13 as home chalk since 2016, though did bomb outmanned EKU in 2020 opener.
Marshall was just 9-17 vs. spread across the previous two seasons.

Tech edge: App State, based on team trends.

LIBERTY at WESTERN KENTUCKY (ESPNU, 12:00 p.m. ET)

WKU was 7-2-1 vs. spread down the stretch last season.
Tops surged in 2019 after loss to ‘Ville very similar to last week.

Tech edge: WKU, based on recent trends.

LA TECH at SOUTHERN MISS (ESPN2, 7:30 p.m. ET)

If Skip Holtz a dog here note 19-8-1 spread mark in role since arriving at Tech in 2014, and 13-7-1 vs. spread last 21 away from Ruston entering Hattiesburg.

Tech edge: La Tech, based on team trends.

TEXAS STATE at UL-MONROE (ESPNU, 7:30 p.m. ET)

Spavital only 3-8-1 vs. line in TSU debut last season, Bobcats 1-1 vs. line thus far in 2020.
TSU has lost four in a row SU vs. ULM but has covered in 4 of the last 6 meetings.
After Army loss, ULM only 8-19 vs. spread last 27 on line for Matt Viator since late in the 2017 campaign.

Tech edge:Slight to Texas State, based on series trends.

SMU at NORTH TEXAS (CBSSN, 6:00 p.m. ET)

Metroplex rivalry. Home team has won and covered big the last three meetings, all decisions by 22 or 23 points!
Sonny Dykes just 1-6 vs. spread laying points away from Ford Stadium for SMU. But UNT entered this season on 3-15 spread skid.

Tech edge: Slight to UNT, based on series home trends.

NAVY at TULANE (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)

After Mids entered 2020 on 14-3 spread uptick, they were destroyed by BYU in opener.
Navy still 20-10 as visiting dog for Niumatalolo since 2009, and 18-10 last 28 as road dog.
Wave, however, covered all six as host LY.

Tech edge: Slight to Navy, based on extended trends.

TROY at MIDDLE TENNESSEE (ESPN2, 4:00 p.m. ET)

Blue Raiders were 9-4 as chalk in 2017-18 but fell back to 1-3 in role a year ago.
Troy enters this season 2-5 vs. line its last seven as visitor.

Tech edge: Slight to MTSU, based on team trends.

SOUTH FLORIDA at NOTRE DAME (USA, 2:30 p.m. ET)

Jeff Scott the new coach at USF, trying to improve Bulls from 3-8 spread mark last 11 as dog under Charlie Strong.
USF also just 2-8 last 10 as DD dog.
Irish off superb 9-4 spread mark in 2019, including 5-2 as South Bend chalk, though failed to cover big price in Duke opener.

Tech edge: Notre Dame, based on team trends.

TULSA at OKLAHOMA STATE (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Teams have not met regularly in recent years, but OSU scored 59 or more in winning and covering three meetings between 2010-17, and also covered last year’s battle at Tulsa when scoring 40.
Golden Hurricane 5-1 vs. spread away in 2019 and 3-1 as road dog, the latter more reminiscent of Montgomery’s first couple of years with Tulsa when 6-1 as visiting dog in 2015-16.
OSU, however, on 13-4 spread uptick since late 2018, and Gundy has remarkably covered last 14 non-Big 12 games dating to 2016!

Tech edge: Ok State, based on team and extended series trends.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-19-2020, 06:39 AM

Al Cimaglia: Hawthorne Racecourse Night of Champions Analysis

September 19, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
It is time for the Night of Champions at Hawthorne Racecourse with over $970,000 in purses spread out over a 12-race card. The number one event in Illinois harness racing comes at the end of the Hawthorne meet. Tomorrow will be the final harness program in 2020 and that signals mandatory payouts.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6-Beulah Dygert Memorial-Purse $98,000

8-Lous Abigail (6/5)-This gal has been on fire, and unless the trip is awful it should be the 6th straight picture for the Searle trainee. Leonard should find a decent seat, is likely to make an early move and not look back.
5-El Oh Govner (10-1)-Marcus Miller grabs the lines which is a ++ driver change. The #1 should get the top or the 2-hole but if fractions are honest this filly will be passing foes down the lane. Using underneath in gimmicks.
1-Fox Valley Extacy (5/2)-The logical 2nd choice usually stays trotting. Probably the case tonight unless there is an issue with starting inside. May want to control the race but that probably won't happen and will be hard pressed to overtake Abigail down the lane.

$10 Exacta 8-5, Total Bet=$10

Race 7-Erwin Dygert Memorial-Purse $109,000

6-Fox Valley Quest (3/2)-Odds-on favorite may have had his hands full if drew the 9 or 10 hole. But with this post draw there should be no excuse and Leonard can provide a good steer.
5-On Higher Ground (7/2)-Brink trainee is a consistent check casher and has finished in the money in 10 of 11 starts with 3 wins. Should be battling #1 for the 2nd place check and will give this 3-year-old a very slight edge.
1-Crooked Creek (5/2)-Comes off a 6-length romp in the slop and has also been very consistent hitting the board in 10 of 11 starts with 8-wins. Warren should keep the other Brink pupil in play throughout.

$5 Trifecta 6-5-1, $5 Trifecta 6-1-5, Total Bet=$10

Race 8-Kadabra Championship-Purse $118,000

4-Lousrolando (2-1)-The breaking issues seem to have been cured and will be trying for its 3rd straight trip to the winner's circle. Beat 5 from this field on 9/11 and expecting the same as long as minds manners.
8-Fistfullofdollars (5/2)-Came 3rd to the morning line choice on 5/2 but appears to have the best chance of any to knock-off the Husted trainee. Will probably need to trot faster than ever before to take top honors.
6-I'mnotalocaldude (12-1)-2-year-old is only 1-15 but has hit the board 8 times and comes off an improved effort. Should race close to the top of the stack and could hit the board if keeps trotting.

$4 Trifecta 4-8-6, $2 Trifecta 4-6-8, Total Bet=$6

Race 11-Plum Peachy-Purse $108,000

9-Fox Valley Exploit (3-1)-On the downside starting from the 9-hole will make the task more difficult. On a positive note this filly has been an odds-on chalk in the last 8 races and tonight the price will be better. This is my pick despite the post, it's the best horse with a stronger driver and is in top form.
1-Sign Her Up (2-1)-Did knock-off my top choice on 8/22 and took full advantage of a nice trip. Should be a major player, probably garnered the morning favoritism due to the post draw and it could make a difference.
4-Double Parked (6-1)-Looking to use in gimmicks and can hit the board with a decent journey. With a quick start could get the top and surprise if Seekman can steal a quarter.

$8 Exacta 9-1, $4 Exacta 9-4, $2 Exacta Box 4-9 & 1-4, Total Bet=$20

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-19-2020, 06:41 AM

Jeff Siegel's National Best Plays - 9/19/20

September 19, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s National Best Plays
Saturday, September 19, 2020
(selections listed in chronological order)
*
*
Churchill Downs – 6th race. Post time: 3:16 ET
6 – Saranya (7/2)

Was very impressive in the OBS April sale preview session breezing a furlong in :10 flat after which the daughter of The Factor brought $320,000 through the ring. Out of a stakes-winning Mizzen Mast mare, she’s clearly bred for grass and makes debut going long on the lawn for the powerful B. Cox/F. Geroux trainer/jockey team in what appears to be a below standard maiden race for juvenile fillies The local work tab should have her fit and ready, so let’s try her at or near her morning line of 7/2.

*
Churchill Downs – 9th race. Post time: 4:53 ET
4 – Siamese (6-1)

Makes her U.S. debut in a soft entry-level allowance affair for fillies and mares and should be capable of springing a mild surprise with a repeat of her sharp runner-up at The Curragh two races back in a valuable handicap that earned a career-top Timeform rating. The daughter of Kitten’s Joy attracts T. Gaffalione (22% with a significant flat-bet profit for this barn), and after a couple of easy breezes over the local track the B. Walsh-trained filly should be primed and ready. The first-time Lasix user likes to settle early and kick home late and is listed at 6-1 on the morning line.

*
Golden Gate Fields – 3rd race. Post time: 2:21 PT
1 – A Little Bit Lucky (7/2)

Cruised to an easy victory in his debut over the Golden Gate Fields all-weather surface in June and then finished well but too late when a respectable fifth in a stakes race for 2-year-olds at Pleasanton the following month. Dropping into a softer starter’s allowance sprint over a surface we know he likes, the E. Miranda-trained juvenile projects be forwardly placed throughout from his cozy outside draw in race that seems likely to have modest early fractions. There’s good value to be found at his morning line of 8-1 if you can get it.

*
Golden Gate Fields – 4th race. Post time: 2:55 PT
3 – Winning Appeal (3-1)

Progressing with experience and with another forward move today the daughter of Grazen should be capable of earning her diploma in this five furlong grass sprint for juvenile fillies. Exits a decent (and already productive) maiden dash over the all-weather surface last month and with the shortening to five furlongs and the switch to grass the E. Moger, Jr.-trained filly projects to be on or near the lead throughout. At 3-1 on the morning line she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.

*
Golden Gate Fields – 7th race. Post time: 4:28 PT
7 – Emerald Magic (6-1)

Added blinkers for the first time in his 11-race career and ran lights out when narrowly missing at 65-1 in a tough starter’s allowance sprint at Del Mar last month, earning by far a career top speed figure while winding up almost three lengths clear of the rest. Returns to his home base where he’s a two-time winner over the Tapeta surface, and with a clean break from his favorable outside draw and a repeat of his most recent outing he may be good enough to pull off at 5-1 on the morning line.

*
Golden Gate Fields – 8th race. Post time: 4:57 PT
2 – Blakeford (4-1)

Has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern while switching to a surface he’s bred to love, so this juvenile son of Mr. Big looks quite intriguing from a good inside draw while retaining high-percentage jockey K. Frey. Was recently scratched out of a maiden $32,000 to be protected in today’s straight maiden race in what we’ll take as a sign of confidence. We’re expecting the J. Josephson-trained juvenile to settle into a comfortable second flight, ground-saving trip and then have every chance to fire his best through the lane. He’s listed at 4-1 on the morning line and we should be able to get every bit of that on the tote.

*
Golden Gate Fields – 10th race. Post time: 5:53 PT
3 – Alice Marble (8-1)

Though winding up a non-threatening ninth, this daughter of Grazen ran far better than the line will show when finishing fastest of all (and galloping out in front) in her debut in June at Santa Anita in a fairly competitive maiden special weight sprint on turf. Was entered but scratched at Del Mar in early August and finally makes it back to the races for clever S. Miyadi, who has been on a tear of late in the Bay Area. With the barn’s “go to” rider A. Gomez taking the call, this state-bred 3-year-old filly is listed at 8-1 on the morning and has a chance to pull off an upset if she leaves with her field and finds room to rally from the quarter pole home.

*

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-19-2020, 06:42 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk: My Late Pick 4 Ticket Sunday at Gulfstream

September 19, 2020 | By Jerry Shottenkirk
Gulfstream Park puts out some inviting Late Pick 4 action on Sunday, and it’s hard not to accept that invitation.

Maidens, starter allowance runners and two sets of claiming races make up the sequence, which has its challenging leg right off the pace. Maidens going long on turf in the seventh race bring a lot possibilities, and that’s the biggest spread on this week’s card, which follows a 5x2x3x3 plan for a $45 total on the 50-cent exotic play.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

Race 7 (3:22 p.m. ET, maidens)

LIAMS STAR is a first-timer with plenty of works and heads in looking like he has a good chance in the career curtain raiser. The Mike Maker barn wins everywhere and is 21 percent here.

RAULITO ran evenly, where is fairly common for horses that debut in two-turn races. The experience should help and he’ll probably show a good late run.

KING BUDDHA ran evenly in his debut, which was at five furlongs. He’ll be tested to get the distance but is bred to go on the front end and could be the one to catch.

CALLSUMONEWHEOCARES was a beaten third on dirt going short, is bred to run much longer and should be able to handle the turf.

GOLOVKIN ran a solid third under these conditions last time after having an uneventful run on dirt. Tough if he runs back to his latest.

Race 8 (3:55 p.m. ET, claiming)

SAYS ADIOS was claimed by Bob Hess, Jr., off a runner-up finish at this same level last time and has been on the board in seven straight. Loves the front end and have the target on her back throughout.

SOLID AS A ROCK is rapid and if circumstances put her on the front end, that would make her difficult to catch. Could be the one to take over if the top one falters.

Race 9 (4:27 p.m. ET, starter optional claiming)

GRAN OLD PARR showed speed in all of her races except her last one, when she was left far back and make a strong run for fourth. Makes her second off the claim by Maker and the ability to be a factor off the pace if needed can only help.

SASSY BUT SMART was fourth in the Grade 3 Palm Beach two back and fits well at this level.

REMASTER ran on well last out and has been very effective at this distance. Can carve out a good trip, as usual.

Race 10 (4:59 p.m. ET, claiming)

TREVESS tired from early efforts on turf last time and returns to the turf, where he was a contender at higher levels than this.

REITERATE was claimed by Sanchez and takes a slight drop for this first for the new barn. Has exceptional speed for this level and can take it to them early.

MATRACA stalked throughout and couldn’t get the leader last out and should get a good pace setup here.

Here’s the suggested ticket for Gulfstream Park’s Late Pick 4 on Sunday:
7) #4 Liams Star, #6 Raulito, #7 King Buddha, #9 Callsumonewhocares, #11 Golovkin.
8) #3 Say Adios, #6 Solid as a Rock.
9) #3 Gran Old Parr, #5 Sassy But Smart, #9 Remaster,
10) #2 Trevess, #6 Reiterate, #7 Matraca.
50-cent Late Pick 4: 4-6-7-9-11 with 3-6 with 3-5-9 with 2-6-7 ($45).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-19-2020, 06:44 AM

Eddie Olczyk’s Saturday Spot Plays at Belmont Park

September 18, 2020
NBC Sports handicapper Eddie Olczyk is back to provide a pair of best bets on Belmont Park’s opening weekend Saturday, September 19 card.

Race 4 // claiming // 6 furlongs // post time 2:35 pm ET

#8 Mine That Coin (9-2 ML)

The turn-back in distance should be key after a 1-1/8 miles try at Saratoga that resulted in a solid third-place finish. He’s back to sprinting and proven over the Belmont track in June in a similar assignment. Win bet.

Race 9 // optional claiming // 7 furlongs (turf) // post time 5:14 pm ET

#4 Opt (8-1 ML)

This elongated turf sprint sets up nicely for Opt’s closing kick. There’s a lot of pace in the race with Call Me Harry, Fast Getaway, Noble Emotion, Bustin Shout and Shiraz all battling for the lead. Opt is a course winner and 3-for-3 in the money on the Belmont turf. Win bet. (turf-only pick)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-19-2020, 06:45 AM

Race of the Week: Saturday's Grade 1 Woodbine Mile

September 17, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk
GRADE 1 $1 MILLION WOODBINE MILE
Saturday, September 19, 2020

The Lead:
It's back-to-back trips north of the border in this space as last week's Queen's Plate has given way to the Grade 1 $1 million Woodbine Mile on Saturday. Woodbine's 2 premier days on the calendar follow in succession, and a top-class field that includes 2019 Preakness Stakes winner WAR OF WILL fills the marquee. The Woodbine Mile will be Race 9 of 12 on a program that gets underway at 1:10 pm ET.

Field Depth:
Grade 1 winners WAR OF WILL and STARSHIP JUBILEE own the field's biggest victories and have faced elite competition in the turf male and turf female divisions. MARCH TO THE ARCH is a Grade 2 winner, while SHIRL'S SPEIGHT and ADMIRALTY PIER have registered Grade 3 victories.

Pace:
Likely front-runner ADMIRALTY PIER dueled and tired in this race last year and would be the target if kept in this race. He's cross-entered in the same-day Singspiel Stakes. A talented group of pressers includes SHIRL'S SPEIGHT, WAR OF WILL and STARSHIP JUBILEE. It's tough to see this race getting beyond those 3, especially if ADMIRALTY PIER was to redirect to the Singspiel.

Our Eyes:
Trainer Mark Casse won the Woodbine Mile in 2016 (Tepin) and 2017 (World Approval) and has 3 shots for the hat trick. Not only is WAR OF WILL formidable in this spot, but there's MARCH TO THE ARCH coming off a highly impressive local prep in the Grade 3 King Edward. The barn also has longshot OLYMPIC RUNNER on the class rise, and he'll partner with last week's Queen's Plate-winning rider Daisuke Fukumoto. But it's WAR OF WILL and MARCH TO THE ARCH who give a powerful early-late combination. Jockey Rafael Hernandez rode MARCH TO THE ARCH to victory in the King Edward, but he jumps to pilot WAR OF WILL as regular rider Tyler Gaffalione is grounded due to COVID-19 travel restrictions. WAR OF WILL's outside post draw looks perfect for the 1-turn mile with a very long run to the only turn, and note that Hernandez's 21% win rate the past year in Woodbine turf miles is co-best in the colony with Justin Stein, rider of STARSHIP JUBILEE. The pace scenario, post position and rider assignment for WAR OF WILL makes him the Casse contender to fear most.

The 7-year-old mare STARSHIP JUBILEE takes on the boys in her Woodbine homecoming. She's accumulated 6 victories here in her career, 1 more than the rest of the Woodbine Mile field combined. Her 8: 5-2-0 record at the turf mile trip suits her well, even if she's been racing longer trips for the past year. The tempo will be very interesting as STARSHIP JUBILEE has caught repeated races with slow paces. But the one time that they went fast early this year, in February's Suwanee River at Gulfstream, she ran the best race on her form. She might actually be sharper in these mile races than what's been assigned for the last year-plus. Even if she's been facing fillies and mares, no one is going to argue with running lines vs. Rushing Fall, Sistercharlie and Mean Mary. That's first class.

SHIRL'S SPEIGHT is a big X-factor in the Woodbine Mile. The 3-year-old colt dazzled in his debut, delivered in his stakes reappearance in the Grade 3 Marine and was being aimed for the Kentucky Derby. But he reportedly developed a cough in late August and missed the run for the roses. He went 18 days without a work between August 21 and September 8, but returned with a bullet 5 furlongs in :59.80 that gave trainer Roger Attfield aspirations for the Woodbine Mile. At 120 pounds, he'll tote 6 less than WAR OF WILL -- but he loses the only pilot he's ever known (Rafael Hernandez) to that rival. Kazushi Kimura picks up the assignment.

Trainer Chad Brown sends VALUE PROPOSITION to Woodbine for the first time, and it's a barn that always merits respect. VALUE PROPOSITION was beaten favorite in the Grade 3 Poker at Belmont in July in only his second start in the last 14 months. He got zero pace help in the Poker and has trained forwardly since then. Luis Contreras picks up the mount, but this one could be hard-pressed to outkick the pace-pressers late after spotting them the early advantage.

The field also includes ARMISTICE DAY, stablemate of ADMIRALTY PIER. Their trainer Barbara Minshall has had her charges on point in the past 2 weeks at Woodbine, going 9: 3-1-1 during that time. Either would be a surprise to pull this off, but both are local turf stakes winners.

Most Certain Exotics Contender: STARSHIP JUBILEE has finished in the superfecta in 16 straight races, and has excellent marks at the course and distance.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender: SHIRL'S SPEIGHT at 8-1 morning line could be any kind of runner based on his first 2 starts. This is a major leap and test, especially after a recent cough, but that kind of price does interest.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $60 win STARSHIP JUBILEE. $15 exacta box STARSHIP JUBILEE with WAR OF WILL ($30). $5 exacta box STARSHIP JUBILEE with SHIRL'S SPEIGHT ($10).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-19-2020, 06:49 AM

Woodbine Late Pick 4 Analysis

September 18, 2020 | By Johnny D
As Santa Anita connections await clear skies and the cessation of damaging fires in the nearby areas, Belmont and Churchill carry the late-September banners as the most popular tracks operating in the US this weekend. However, Saturday, north of the border in Toronto, Canada, Woodbine has an outstanding card highlighted by the Grade 1, $1 million Ricoh Mile.

Below is one man’s opinion of the Late Pick 4. Horseplayers have plenty of options throughout the 12-race card that beings at 1:10 pm with a final post scheduled for 6:45 pm. The Woodbine Mile will go as the 9th race at approximately 5:39 pm (All Times Eastern). The main event is included in two Pick 4s—one worth a guaranteed $100k that begins with the 7th race and another worth at least $200k that begins with the Woodbine Mile. There’s also another $100k guaranteed Pick 4 that begins in race 4 and there are two Pick 5s—one that starts with the 2nd race and another launching with the 6th.

While the payoffs are extremely attractive, nothing requires players to wager on Pick 4s and Pick 5s. Those bets often pay extremely well, but they are commensurately difficult to hit and often drain bankrolls. Besides those wagers there are many other options, including Win and Exacta wagering on every race! For our purposes, we’ll take a look at the late Pick 4 but, if you’re interested in having some fun without risking a bundle, then think about playing our Pick 4 selections in Win and Exacta wagers. You probably won’t hit a home run but a double in the gap ain’t a bad way to go.

9th Race –Woodbine Mile
1. March to the Arch M. Casse P. Husbands 5-2
This 5-year-old ran the best race of his life last out to win the Gr. 2 King Edward at this track and distance. He’s 2-for-2 here on turf. While racing predominately in graded company, he wins a race about every 6-8 months. Rafael Hernandez, who rode March to the Arch to victory last out moves to favored War at Will. Both horses race for trainer Mark Casse. He needs to be respected in here off that strong last out and will be closing late.

2. Armistice Day Minshall Moran 20-1
Blinkers come off for this 4-year-old gelding but he seems overmatched in here.

3. Shirl’s Speight Attfield Kimura 8-1
Winner of 2 in as many starts, this 3-year-old is being thrown to the wolves for his third start. He was slated to try the Kentucky Derby but became sick before the race and didn’t enter. He broke maiden going 7 furlongs over this layout and then won the Gr. 3 Marine in his next against fellow sophomores. This field is much tougher.

4. Starship Jubilee K. Attard Stein 4-1
If you can’t appreciate this Gr. 1 winning mare, then you’re not a true racing fan. She’s 18-for-37 lifetime, 6-for-13 over Woodbine turf and 5-for-8 with 2 seconds at the distance. This is the kind of horse that if you were in a foxhole, you’d want beside you. She’s 7-years-old now but has won 4 of her last 5 and 7 of the last 9! Expect her to be about mid-pack early. Despite that awesome record at the distance she hasn’t tried a mile since blowing a 3-length lead in the stretch here over a yielding surface in the Gr. 2 Nassau in May of ’19. Consider this professional a contender in here and possibly an exotics key.

5. Olympic Runner M. Casse Fukumoto 15-1
The least fancied of 3 Mark Casse-trained runners, this 4-year-old gelding closed well to be second at six furlongs on the main track in the Gr. 3 Vigil last out. He’s fit but this appears to be a big step up in class. He usually comes from well off the pace in sprints but should be a bit closer to the early pace at one mile.

6. Admiralty Pier Minshall Bahen 10-1
This 5-year-old gelding is an interesting proposition in here, especially in vertical exotic plays like exactas and trifectas. He figures as the speed and will be the main target for favored War of Will. How long will this guy hang around? That’s the one you need to answer when you decide where to use him. Message here is don’t dismiss this guy at anywhere near 10-1 odds.

7. Value Proposition C. Brown Contreras 6-1
This is a lightly raced 4-year-old ridgeling shipping north from New York for trainer Chad Brown. Anything from that barn has to be considered but this guy will need to run better than he ever has before. That’s not impossible, especially for these connections, but he may be overbet because of those same connections.

8. War of Will M. Casse R. M. Hernandez 2-1
Last season’s Preakness winner returned to turf to win the Gr 1 Maker’s Mark at Keeneland last out July 10. He has worked well since including a bullet :59 1/5 five furlongs at Churchill Downs. He began his career with a quartet of turf races but didn’t break maiden until on a sloppy Churchill main track going a mile and one-sixteenth. He then annexed the Gr. 3 Lecomte and Gr. 2 Risen Star in his next two starts. Eighth in the Kentucky Derby after a puzzling dud in the Gr. 2 Louisiana Derby as heavy favorite, this son of War Front captured the Preakness next out. This guy is a Gr. 1 winner on both turf and dirt and that’s a rare combination. He’ll be favored in here and has every right to fire another big race but there are reasons to go against him. First, his turf speed figures really don’t dominate in here. Second, his best races have come on the turf. We’d love to bet against him, but he’s got a license to improve because he’s making just his third start as a 4-year-old, is fresh and has a trainer who knows how to win this race. He must be used and because of the difficulty of the late Pick 4 we’ll single him in our suggested wager so the ticket isn’t too large.

Most Likely Winner: #8 War of Will (2-1)
Should Run Well: #4 Starship Jubilee (4-1) #6 Admiralty Pier (10-1)

As mentioned earlier the 9th race is part of two Pick 4s—one that begins with the 7th and one that starts with the 9th. The latter is a difficult animal because there are a pair of 2-year-old grass races in the sequence—a five-furlong stakes race for fillies and a restricted maiden race at six and one-half furlongs. Two-year-old races often are unpredictable, toss in the turf factor and things become even scarier. Bombs may be bursting in air!

10th Race
#2 Dirty Dangle (10-1) has a five-furlong turf maiden victory in solid time. Must be respected.

#4 Chatelet (6-1) didn’t win her only maiden turf start but ran well enough to be considered in here for a winning barn. She’s got speed.

#5 Souper Munnings (2-1) switched to turf after two decent main track tries. She’ll probably stalk the early pace.

#7 Illegal Smile (8-5) is trained by Wesley Ward, who’s great with this type of runner. Lasix was added and blinkers removed last out and she showed speed and was passed late in a stakes race. That was an improvement over her second outing at Belmont in a maiden turf race when second. She remains a maiden.

11th Race
This is an absolutely wide-open mess. Use as many of these as you can. We’ll list a few with comments but have no real opinion. Bombs away!

#12 Lucky Score (6-1) has some things in his favor. According to Thoro-Graph statistics, trainer Ralph Biamonte hits at 27% with all 2-year-olds and is 36% with 2-year-olds 2nd time out. Those are some gaudy numbers and can’t be ignored. This son of Lookin At Lucky has worked every 7 days and has a :35 2/5 from the gate bullet August 30.

#6 Saturday George (3-1) finished second in his only start on main track.

#2 Derzkii (20-1) has 2 fair races under his belt—the most recent in a restricted stakes. If he takes to the turf, his steady style may work well.

#7 Justintimegosnorth (12-1) has a nice stamina building three-quarter work for this.

#8 Keep Grinding has been working every 6-8 days and has a bullet five-furlong move September 7.

12th Race
#9 Last American Exit 9 (12-1) A repeat of either of Last American Exit’s first two races would put him in the mix. He’s worth a shot at anything close to 12-1 odds.

#7 Speedy Moonlite (3-1) has a pair of races that fit in here. Last out in a stakes try he wasn’t competitive. These are easier.

#5 Bend in the River (4-1) has several races that make him competitive in here, in fact, all of his starts except for his only turf try fit.

#11 Executive Search (6-1) ought to be close early and has a race two back that makes him competitive. Before his last out on turf he showed solid improvement. If that improvement resumes, he’s got a solid chance.

Suggested $.50 Pick 4 Ticket ($40 Total)
There’s no way to approach this particularly difficult Pick 4 sequence without spending a decent amount of money. There are other ways to attack Saturday’s Woodbine races. We’ll construct a Pick 4 opinion below, but don’t neglect Win and Exacta wagering.

Race 9
#8 War of Will

Race 10
#2Dirty Dangle #4 Chatelet #5 Souper Munnings #7 Illegal Smile

Race 11
#2 Derzkii #6 Saturday George #7 Justintimegosnorth #8 Keep Grinding #12 Lucky Score

Race 12
#5 Bend in the River #7 Speedy Moonlite #9 Last American Exit #11 Executive Search

Race On!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-19-2020, 09:16 AM

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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-19-2020, 09:55 AM

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