Saturday 9/19/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness

Sep 19 '20, 9:10 PM in 9h
MLB | Rangers vs Angels
Play on: Rangers +145 at sportsbook

My free play is on the Tex Rangers at 9:10 ET.
The 22-30 Rangers and 22-30 Angers are a little more than a week away from being "done for the year," as MLB's 60-game regular season concludes a week from tomorrow (Sep 27). The teams continue their three-game series tonight in Anaheim, after the Angels won 6-2 last night. The 'story' from Friday's game was Albert Pujols hitting career HR No. 661 in the fifth inning to break the tie with Willie Mays for fifth-place on the list of all-time HRs. He connected again in his next at-bat, as the 40-year-old Pujols (662) now trails only Barry Bonds (762), Hank Aaron (755), Babe Ruth (714) and Alex Rodriguez (696). Tonight's pitching matchup is 'the story' of tonight's contest, as Lynn (6-2, 2.40 ERA) squares off against Andrew Heaney (4-3, 4.02 ERA) for the THIRD time this season. Lynn's got the better of Heaney in both previous meetings, winning 7-3 back on Aug 9 and then 7-1 on Sep 8. Will the third time be the charm for Heaney? I think not!
Lance Lynn is a nine-year veteran, who has logged 1,400-plus innings over 258 appearances (234 starts) with a 104-70 record (3.53 ERA) in his career. Lynn was a solid part of the St Louis rotation from 2012 to 2017. He missed the entire 2016 season due to injury but in those other five seasons, he won 71 games. He signed a FA deal with Minnesota in 2018 and was a flop, going 7-8 with a 5.10 ERA. He was traded during the season to the Yankees and went 3-2 with a 4.14 ERA. Texas took a chance on him in 2019 and he responded by winning a team-high 16 games. Here in 2020, he's been the LONE bright spot of the Texas rotation. Incredibly, the veteran right-hander has thrown at least 100 pitches in 35 consecutive starts, the longest streak in the majors since Justin Verlander of the Detroit Tigers hit that mark in 80 straight regular-season appearances from June 2010 to September 2012. Look closely at his 2020 pitching numbers in 2020, compared to his career numbers. His career ERA is 3.53 but this season it's 2.40. His career WHIP is 1.29 but in 2020 it's 0.95. Lastly, his career BAA is .423 but its; 67 points lower this season, at .176!
Heaney's in his seventh season, having made 89 appearances (87 starts) with a 24-29 career record (4.39 ERA / 1.29) . He started poorly in 2020, going 1-2 with a ERA after six starts (Angels were 1-5). However, he's 3-1 with a 2.36 ERA over his last four outings but note, the lone loss came up against Lynn. Lynn throws another 100-plus pitches in this one and makes it 3-0 vs Heaney here in 2020.
Good luck...Larry

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Sweetwater County Fair

Sweetwater County Fair - Race 6	$2 WPS / $1 Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta
Futurity • 300 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 78 • Purse: $15,000 • Post: 3:05P
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, ROCK SPRINGS - WYOMING ACREDITED STALLION FUTURITY - FOR TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH WERE SIRED BY A REGISTERED ACCREDITED WYOMING STALLION. $200 DUE AT TIME OF ENTRY. PURSE TO BE DIVIDED: 40% TO WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 10% TO THIRD, 7% TO FOURTH, 5.5% TO FIFTH, AND 3.5% EACH TO SIXTH THROUGH TENTH. WEIGHT: 124 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * EYESA SPECIAL BEDDY: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. VVR BABY DOLL: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. EYESA SPECIAL MONGO: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. SIXS CB MOMAN: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. NURSE ROCKETTE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rat ing.
2	EYESA SPECIAL BEDDY	5/2	6/1
4	VVR BABY DOLL	10/1	6/1
6	EYESA SPECIAL MONGO	8/1	8/1
3	SIXS CB MOMAN	9/2	8/1
5	NURSE ROCKETTE	3/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	OUR DICEY MAN	1	12/1	Slow	0	0	7.4	0.0	0.0
2	EYESA SPECIAL BEDDY	2	5/2	Slow	81	74	6.5	0.0	0.0
3	SIXS CB MOMAN	3	9/2	Average	78	68	5.0	0.0	0.0
4	VVR BABY DOLL	4	10/1	Fast/Trouble-prone	80	79	3.2	0.0	0.0
5	NURSE ROCKETTE	5	3/1	Average	83	70	5.7	0.0	0.0
6	EYESA SPECIAL MONGO	6	8/1	Fast	76	72	3.2	0.0	0.0
7	VVR HERE COMES BENDY	7	7/2	Average	0	0	3.7	0.0	0.0
8	CD LOTTA OKEY DOKEY	8	20/1	Slow	0	0	9.3	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Will Rogers Downs

Will Rogers Downs - Race 10	Exacta / Quinella / Trifecta / Superfecta / Late Daily Double
Allowance • 250 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 79 • Purse: $14,200 • Post: 3:45P
QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * RJ LITTLE LESS TALK: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. BAD PARTNER: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style desi gnation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. EYE M YOUR FAVORITE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
3	RJ LITTLE LESS TALK	3/1	7/2
10	BAD PARTNER	2/1	6/1
2	EYE M YOUR FAVORITE	12/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	BILLS HANDSOME HAWK	1	20/1	Fast	67	58	3.2	0.0	0.0
2	EYE M YOUR FAVORITE	2	12/1	Average	72	75	5.9	0.0	0.0
3	RJ LITTLE LESS TALK	3	3/1	Average	84	80	5.2	0.0	0.0
4	DALLAS DYNASTY	4	6/1	Average	75	69	3.8	0.0	0.0
5	CHEYENNES COUNTRY	5	10/1	Fast	63	73	1.7	0.0	0.0
6	CLEAN BREW	6	20/1	Average	80	64	5.2	0.0	0.0
7	SHEZA CHAIN SMOKER	7	5/1	Average	78	67	0.0	0.0	0.0
8	A HOPE AND A PRAYER	8	20/1	Average	62	61	3.6	0.0	0.0
9	HES ALL CORONA	9	12/1	Average	70	69	6.0	0.0	0.0
10	BAD PARTNER	10	2/1	Fast	78	73	3.4	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Maiden Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $6500 Class Rating: 55

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. ALLOWED 2 LBS. ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 HERE BY MISTAKE 2/1
# 8 MAKE A POINT 4/1
# 6 SEA SPARROW 5/2

HERE BY MISTAKE is my choice. When a handler brings any pony back this soon it is a positive sign. A solid 61 avg Equibase class figure may give this filly a distinct class edge versus this group of animals. Has been running strongly lately and will almost certainly be on or close to the lead early on. MAKE A POINT - This filly could improve with second time Lasix. Love when any pony makes a quick turnaround. SEA SPARROW - As of late Rivera has provided wagerers with a quite good winning percentage with horses running in dirt sprint races. With Diaz controlling the reins on her, this filly ought to be able to break out early in here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Golden Gate Fields - Race #7 - Post: 4:28pm - Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $31,000 Class Rating: 104

Rating:

#5 DETANGLER (ML=10/1)
#3 HECK YEAH (ML=9/2)
#4 SNOW FEATHER (ML=20/1)


DETANGLER - You always have to be on the lookout for profit making jockey/trainer duos; we have one right here. HECK YEAH - Rivera comes to race after getting to know the horse in the last contest. This horse looks like a possible overlay right here at M/L odds of 9/2. Finished fifth in last race at Golden Gate Fields but was close at the wire. Is ranked highest in earnings per start (EPS). A strong performance today will boost that total. SNOW FEATHER - All systems look good for this gelding. Last morning work, 2nd fastest of the day, shows he's fit and ready.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 MY FRIEND TONY (ML=8/5), #2 PAPAPIFAS (ML=3/1), #7 EMERALD MAGIC (ML=5/1),

MY FRIEND TONY - The speed rating last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's race. Mark this horse as a questionable contender. PAPAPIFAS - I don't have a 'use' intuition about this questionable contender in this contest. EMERALD MAGIC - Almost certainly won't make much of an impact in today's event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #5 DETANGLER on the nose if you can get odds of 3/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4,5] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPER HIGH FIVE WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Cross Country Pick Four

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Starter Handicap - 11.0f on the Turf. Purse: $50000 Class Rating: 100

MTH - R10 - FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $16,000 OR LESS IN 2019-2020. TO REMAIN ELIGIBLE FOR TRAINER AWARDS TOTALING $25,000, A HORSE MUST HAVE STARTED IN THREE OF THE FOUR EVENTS. CLOSED SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 12, 2020 WITH 76 NOMINATIONS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 DOMAIN 12/1
# 5 SMALL HOPE 6/1
# 2 JUAN PABLO 20/1

DOMAIN gets the edge as the wager in here and the potential return justifies the unsafe nature of the long odds. SMALL HOPE - Sweezey has this gelding racing well and is a decent selection based on the strong Speed Figures posted in route races lately. Overall the speed figures of this equine look respectable in this contest. JUAN PABLO - Handler boasts strong win figures at this distance and surface.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Delaware Park - Race #6 - Post: 3:45pm - Claiming - 7.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $23,000 Class Rating: 52

Rating:

#1 DOUBLE FIREBALL (ML=6/1)
#3 PRINCESS NINA (ML=15/1)
#8 HARDLY SOCIAL (ML=10/1)


DOUBLE FIREBALL - On board this horse on Sep 5th and Rodriguez is yet again in the irons this time around. The September 5th affair at Delaware Park was at a class level of (60). Dropping down the class ladder a significant amount, so she should be in a good position to win. This filly is at the top in earnings per start. Give the once over to this horse in the post parade. PRINCESS NINA - Lets try to beat the chalks with this filly. Just missed last out, but ran a respectable race. This filly is in good condition. Ran fourth on Sep 5th. Taking a trip down in class ranks; has the class to make her presence felt. I always like to see a filly getting Lasix for the second time. This one fits the bill. HARDLY SOCIAL - Klesaris has a very strong win pct in grass sprints. This filly should be in shape and ready to win. I like the fact that this first-time-starter's recent works have been over this track.

Vulnerable Contenders: #10 LADY QUINTESSA (ML=4/1), #5 HONOR YOUR MOTHER (ML=5/1), #7 MICK'SBESTBETYET (ML=8/1),

LADY QUINTESSA - A pattern of lessening speed figures 50/11/8 for this steed. I don't normally play a probable favorite that hasn't been to the track in the last three weeks. This mount ran a substandard fig last time out. She shouldn't show signs of improvement and will probably suffer defeat in today's event running that fig. HONOR YOUR MOTHER - In all probability won't make much of an impact today. MICK'SBESTBETYET - Should have at least hit the board in the last two months in a short distance event to be worth the chance at low odds in a sprint.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - PRINCESS NINA - This filly is stepping up with each race. She has shown a notable points increase in her speed ratings over her last two races.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #1 DOUBLE FIREBALL on the win end if we get at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[1,3,8] with [1,3,8] with [1,3,8,9,11] with [1,3,8,9,11] Total Cost: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Churchill Downs

09/19/20, CD, Race 4, 2.14 ET
09/19/20,CD,4,6F [Dirt] 1:07:03 CLAIMING. Purse $21,000. FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 123 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since August 19 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $10,000.
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	7	Majestic Edge	7/2	Albarado R	Gelner Scott	WL	41	41.46	1.57/$1
098.8716	4	Miss Jacqueline	4-1	Leparoux J R	Lyster Stephen S.	FE	147	33.33	1.13/$1
097.5428	8	Abramax	7/2	Saez G	Simms Garry W.		33	36.36	1.51/$1
096.6462	6	Free	5/2	Lanerie C J	Kobiskie Dane	T	33	36.36	1.51/$1
096.3483	3	Queen of Verona	6-1	Mena M	Ortiz John Alexander	SC	97	37.11	1.32/$1
095.6929	5	Little Bella	10-1	Talamo J	Vaccarezza Carlo		33	36.36	1.51/$1
095.0545	1	Her Giant	20-1	Bejarano R	Durbin James R.		33	36.36	1.51/$1
093.1466	2	Thea Bee	15-1	Bridgmohan S	Danner Kelsey	J	33	36.36	1.51/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 31.25, ROI 0.95/$1

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Belmont Park

09/19/20, BEL, Race 4, 2.35 ET
09/19/20,BEL,4,6F [Dirt] 1:07:03 CLAIMING. Purse $26,000. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 123 lbs. Claiming Price $16,000 (1.5% Aftercare Assessment Due At Time Of Claim Otherwise Claim Will Be Void).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	2	Justice of War	4-1	Lezcano J	Rice Linda	SL	392	40.05	1.28/$1
097.9444	9	Beach Front	9/2	Franco M	Atras Rob	T	392	40.05	1.28/$1
097.1175	3	Flying Finish	3-1	Alvarado J	Margotta. Jr. Anthony		392	40.05	1.28/$1
096.8731	8	Mine the Coin	9/2	Saez L	Gullo Gary P.	J	392	40.05	1.28/$1
096.0406	5	No More Miracles	8-1	Davis D	Donk David G.		392	40.05	1.28/$1
095.8751	7	Rightdowngentlemen	12-1	Cancel E	Brown Bruce R.	FEC	392	40.05	1.28/$1
095.6165	6	Big Boy Mo	8-1	Carmouche K	Quick Patrick J.	W	392	40.05	1.28/$1
092.3512	1	I Saw It All	10-1	Hernandez B	Ferraro James W.		392	40.05	1.28/$1
090.9785	4	Our American Star	12-1	Cardenas L	Shivmangal Lolita		392	40.05	1.28/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 28.04, ROI 0.80/$1