Sunday 9/20/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 358322

    Sunday 9/20/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

    Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

    NFL
    http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 358322

    #2
    Paul Leiner

    Two NFL picks 9/20

    Sun Sep 20, 2020 7:02 am
    Really like today's NFL card. Here's a couple I'm on.

    100* Cardinals -7
    100* Panthers +8.5
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    Comment

    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 358322

      #3
      Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks


      Belmont Park - Race #1
      #8 Momentita Matz runner was a solid 2nd on debut for a barn that never cranks them and is a big 24% with second-time maidens, so while the race was slow and she gets a class test on the big circuit, the price will be right to string along; can surprise.
      #5 Uptown Flirt The best of the proven runners has been a distant 3rd and 2nd in her two starts, but to a pair of nice ones in fast races, so she's going to be tough, though the short price and sall margin for error don't entice; thee one to beat, but no lock.
      #2 Taqseemaat Brown firster will be bet hard for the best turf barn in the country, though this is a Shadwell homebred, so she might not be as talented as an auction purchase may be, and she could could need this too; tread lightly if looking her way.
      Race Summary The price will be right on the 8, and it needs to be as she has to improve off that debut to win this, but there's plenty of reasons to think she will, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially the early Pk5, and to kick off the early Pk4 as well, since a win would add value to both sequences.
      Belmont Park - Race #4
      #6 Family Biz Stretch runner goes off the Falcone claim (24%) after a closing 2nd lat time, should like the added ground, and will get an honest pace to rally into as well; mows them all down.
      #3 Super Dude Rodriguez claim (18%) will be bet hard for a sharp barn, though the Spa win was all-out, and this is a significant rise in class too, so there are some hurdles to clear; trying to beat.
      #1 Malibu Pro Logical sort beat the pick two-back, so you know he's a player, but he may not like the longer trip, not to mention there's speed here, which could hurt him late; may come unglued.
      Race Summary That 4-1 ML on the pick seems like fair value, as he's now in with a barn that plays this game well, and the pace works too, so play him aggressively to win and place, while getting some added value by using him in the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since he looks like he's getting all the best of it here.
      Belmont Park - Race #8
      #7 Wild Medagliad'oro Versatile sort has been routing on the turf, so the cutback today means he'll be stalking, and with a hot pace, he should be in the right spot off the far turn; look out.
      #2 French Reef Stiff favorite for Brown looked like a freak in his MSW romp at the Spa, but he hasn't made it back since, and there's serious speed to his outside as well; backwheel time.
      #5 Chilly in Charge Stalker is another who will like the pace, though he's been off since December, so he may need this, and it could be a prep for longer next time too; may get a share late.
      Race Summary The route foundation and expected hot and contested pace looks to be the perfect combination for the 7, so play him t win and place, and especially in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since budget players will be singling the 2, who looks like a serious talent, but might really be up against it in terms of race flow today.
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      Comment

      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 358322

        #4
        Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks


        Mountaineer - Race #1
        #2 Judah Has done good work over the local course historically, and he has enough pace to get into the mix early again here. The one to beat on the drop.
        #7 Creative Story Has run a couple of sneaky good turf races in the past and might get a bit overlooked on the tote here. The recent form has come with better, so he's worth a look with these.
        #8 Heart in Hand He scored easily at this level earlier this season and can bounce back from a rare dud last time out. He's usually overbet.
        Race Summary Judah can be tough from close range in a spot where there isn't a huge spread between the top four or five horses, so I wouldn't want anything shorter than the 5/2 ML offering.
        Mountaineer - Race #2
        #3 Brilliant Dunce The chalk is going to be a real handful here, but this guy might be the one to take a swing with. He was rained off in his comeback race a couple months ago, but he owns back turf form that isn't too far off the chalk.
        #7 I'm Machen Too He took to the turf nicely last out when posting an easy score, and he's the clear one to beat right back in with WV-breds.
        #3 Redmark Longshot brings terrible form to this, but he'll at least be racing out of a new barn today, giving some hope for improvement with a change of scenery. He's also got a win from two turf starts.
        Race Summary Brilliant Dunce might be able to get the better of I'm Machen Too. He'll need to get back to his very best while getting back on the lawn, but the price should be right to take a chance.
        Mountaineer - Race #8
        #6 Magic Credit Might be in too deep, but she has really taken her game to the next level in her first two local starts for the current connections. She steps up to try winners, but at 12/1 I'll bite and see if she's got something more left to show.
        #3 Team Freedom Her ceiling is really high and makes her the one to beat, but she ran a big one last time out and she's known for turning in big efforts back to back. Capable, but probably not for me at the likely price.
        #9 Carpe Amorina Steps up after rolling maidens in the local debut, and she draws well to get another good tracking trip from out wide.
        Race Summary Magic Credit steps up off a couple of really nice local efforts, and though she'll need better here, another small step in the right direction might do the trick.
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        Comment

        • Can'tPickAWinner
          Super Moderator
          • Nov 2012
          • 358322

          #5
          Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks


          Gulfstream Park - Race #5
          #2 Sharm El Sheikh Does well when he's on the front end and today he can get where he wants to be from the inside post; can dictate the pace.
          #9 Morning Stride Goes for his third straight win, the latest in the Rich H Lee Stakes and prior to that in a handicap; he's a quality route and was a heady claim four races back by the McGoey stable.
          #4 Projected Has become a steady closer and finished fourth with a good move last out; makes his third off the claim for Carlos David and has responded with good efforts in his last two.
          Race Summary Sharm El Sheikh is likely to assume command and has a good chance to back up the pace; he's in a good place in which to get the nine furlongs.
          Gulfstream Park - Race #6
          #3 Reggae Revolution Put a whipping on N2L company for this price last time and can be a factor from the beginning.
          #1 Charge Account Won at this level two races back and follow with a non-threatening second; has a decent closing move on occasion and fits for this price.
          #2 Beast of Wildwood Won her last two and is trying to successfully step back up the ladder after falling off a few races back; big player on or close to the lead.
          Race Summary Reggae Revolution was very sharp last time out and moves up into a tougher spot; has the speed to battle and is capable of being successful in his return.
          Gulfstream Park - Race #9
          #3 Gran Old Parr Didn't break well and came flying for fourth last out; had won two straight and was claimed two back by Maker, who usually does well with his acquisitions.
          #5 Sassy But Smart Shortens up in distance after a fourth in the G3 Palm Beach and a dull effort in the Bears Den; he drops in class and can make a run.
          #9 Remaster Rallied well and missed by a length while third last out; usually a late threat at this distance.
          Race Summary Gran Old Parr had won two straight on or close to the front end and had to come from far back last time; capable of another big run, whether it be on the lead or from off the pace.
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          Comment

          • Can'tPickAWinner
            Super Moderator
            • Nov 2012
            • 358322

            #6
            Al Cimaglia: Hawthorne Racecourse Late Pick 4 Analysis


            September 20, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
            Hawthorne Racecourse concludes the 2020 harness racing season with a 15-race card. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 begins in Race 12. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool and it will be my focus. The Race 15, Jackpot High 5 has a $44,820 carryover and there will be a mandatory payout.

            Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

            Race 12

            7-Velocity McSweets (7-1)-Beat #10 on 8/9 in a condition race when that mare had the 10-hole and she finished 2nd. If Husted can work the same type of trip and be within 3 lengths or so at the top of the lane the same finish can happen again.
            10-Tempus Seelster (4-1)-This is the only true Open horse in the race and has multiple wins at this level including the last 2. Seekman has been steering well and knows when to push the button on this mare. Pace should be honest, so the 3rd straight win at this level could happen.

            Race 13

            7-JK Newera (7/2)-Still trying to break her maiden but has hit the board in all 3 starts here. Couldn't close fast enough in last but did pace the 2nd half in 57.1 and should be in the mix at the wire versus this crew.
            9-Pretty Boy Shooter (7-1)-Leonard was trying to roll off cover in last but the opening half went in only .59. This time the pace should be quicker and that should help in passing foes down the lane.
            10-Pro Time (5-1)-Two-year-old gelding makes 4th start and has a win and 2-second place finishes. Left from the 7-hole last week and it was the 1st time Bates gunned for the top but ended up fading down the lane. Could leave again, find a good seat and brush by down the lane.

            Race 14

            2-Girls Girls Girls (25-1)-Stayed inside last week and the pace collapsed in the lane and was behind a wall of horses. Might get sucked around and if shakes lose late could roll by at a price. Smolin's choice over #1.
            6-Model (9/5)-Drops to a soft spot but that doesn't guarantee anything when 1-23 on the year. Barn has been going well but Seekman needs to work a good trip. Will respect and look to shoot against for some juice in the Pick 4 payout.
            8-Unbroken Circle (8-1)-Leonard trainee won in a drop and pop situation with a good steer by Husted. Steps-up but this isn't a group of All-Stars. Best to respect at a square price because the same script could be followed tonight.
            10-Sweetshadyshark (12-1)-This mare is far from perfect and Wilfong will need to figure out a way to put her in play without draining her tank. Was used hard to get the top last week, so maybe will duck and rally late. At the program odds or higher the risk reward is fair.

            Race 15

            1-Stella Kemp (7-1)-Stella is only 1-20 and has had a breaking issue but her last start was the best since 7/18. Recorded a win in that start and left from the rail. Should be worth a swing and may offer a square price.
            5-Big Man Forever (5-1)-Raced well at this level last week and was used a couple of times. Now gets some post relief and could be sitting on a big try.
            7-Captainblacksparrow (4-1)-Camera shy 4-year-old did come up with a strong effort to take a picture at this class last time. Rogers should be able to leave to get a good seat again, and then could brush by for another win.

            0.50 Late Pick 4

            7,10/7,9,10/2,6,8,10/1,5,7
            Total Bet=$36
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            Comment

            • Can'tPickAWinner
              Super Moderator
              • Nov 2012
              • 358322

              #7
              Jeff Siegel's National Best Plays for Sunday, Sept. 20, 2020


              September 20, 2020
              Jeff Siegel’s National Best Plays
              Sunday, September 20, 2020
              (selections listed in chronological order)
              *
              *
              Belmont Park – 3rd race. Post time: 2:04 ET
              7 – Chasing Fame (3-1)


              In what appears to be an unusually strong maiden special weight grass sprint for juveniles, let’s try to get home a first-time starting colt that gives every indication of possessing extreme speed. The D. O’Neill-trained son of Tapiture was impressive at the May Timonium 2-year-old in training sale, where he previewed on the bullring in a blistering :10 1/5, and his drills after returning to training in early August have consistently caught the eye. There are other highly-regarded colts in the field, among them the C. Brown-trained Realm of Law and T. Pletcher-trained Fighting Force, but if he performs as well in the afternoon as he has in his a.m. trials this grey rocket ship may take control early and be very tough to catch. At 3-1 on the morning line he’s a gamble in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.

              *
              Woodbine – 9th race. Post time: 5:35 ET
              6 – Lady Speightspeare (5/2)


              Graduated at first asking in a very fast seven furlong turf affair like a filly with a huge future and gets the acid test while moving up into Grade-1 company in this year’s powerful edition of the Natalma S.-G1. By Speightstown from the high-class turf mare Lady Shakespeare, the R. Attfield-trained filly may be quick enough to lead from the bell and if not pressured early should have no trouble carrying her speed an extra furlong. A bullet five furlong drill over the grass training track in :58 3/5 last week indicates she came out of her debut in fine fettle and is set to produce a forward move. She’s third choice on the morning line at 5/2 and at that price she’s worth strong consideration as a win play and rolling exotic single.
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              Comment

              • Can'tPickAWinner
                Super Moderator
                • Nov 2012
                • 358322

                #8
                F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Lone Star Park

                Lone Star Park - Race 2
                WPS / Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / Daily Double $.50 Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) / $.50 Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)
                Claiming $4,000 • 400 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up CR: 60 • Purse: $12,500 • Post: 6:33P
                QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2020. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.
                Contenders
                Race Analysis
                P#
                Horse
                Morn
                Line
                Accept
                Odds

                Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * ITS WHAT IT IS: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rati ng. STEL ROYAL: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
                1
                ITS WHAT IT IS
                2/1
                5/2
                4
                STEL ROYAL
                15/1
                4/1

                P#
                Horse (In Running Style Order)
                Post
                Morn
                Line
                Running Style
                Good
                Class
                Good
                Speed
                Early Figure
                Finish Figure
                Platinum
                Figure
                1
                ITS WHAT IT IS
                1
                2/1
                Average
                92
                88
                5.1
                0.0
                0.0
                2
                SANCHO PANZA
                2
                8/1
                Slow
                74
                71
                8.1
                0.0
                0.0
                3
                CRB MAGIC
                3
                20/1
                Average
                52
                54
                5.8
                0.0
                0.0
                4
                STEL ROYAL
                4
                15/1
                Slow
                93
                89
                8.3
                0.0
                0.0
                5
                MIGHTY VALENTINO
                5
                10/1
                Average/Trouble-prone
                62
                54
                6.0
                0.0
                0.0
                6
                CJ ROCKIN MISS
                6
                3/1
                Average
                79
                63
                5.8
                0.0
                0.0
                7
                CHICS FAST STRIKE
                7
                8/1
                Fast
                84
                73
                3.1
                0.0
                0.0
                8
                WORDSTHEICE
                8
                4/1
                Average
                71
                67
                0.0
                0.0
                0.0
                9
                MAKE IT FANCY
                9
                12/1
                Average
                64
                52
                4.6
                0.0
                0.0
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                Comment

                • Can'tPickAWinner
                  Super Moderator
                  • Nov 2012
                  • 358322

                  #9
                  F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)



                  Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 6
                  $1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta Superfecta (.10 cent minimum wager) $1 Pick Four
                  Maiden • 300 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up CR: 73 • Purse: $7,800 • Post: 8:55P
                  QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.
                  Contenders
                  Race Analysis
                  P#
                  Horse
                  Morn
                  Line
                  Accept
                  Odds

                  Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * OCTAVIA: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. TRENTS TOYS: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Spee d Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. NEWPORT GUY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. RACY RED HOT: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
                  2
                  OCTAVIA
                  3/1
                  9/2
                  6
                  TRENTS TOYS
                  5/2
                  9/2
                  5
                  NEWPORT GUY
                  7/2
                  8/1
                  1
                  RACY RED HOT
                  6/1
                  9/1

                  P#
                  Horse (In Running Style Order)
                  Post
                  Morn
                  Line
                  Running Style
                  Good
                  Class
                  Good
                  Speed
                  Early Figure
                  Finish Figure
                  Platinum
                  Figure
                  1
                  RACY RED HOT
                  1
                  6/1
                  Average/Trouble-prone
                  81
                  72
                  4.4
                  0.0
                  0.0
                  2
                  OCTAVIA
                  2
                  3/1
                  Slow
                  88
                  75
                  9.2
                  0.0
                  0.0
                  3
                  ILUMINADA CORONA
                  3
                  4/1
                  Average
                  75
                  68
                  0.0
                  0.0
                  0.0
                  4
                  SPECIAL INTEREST
                  4
                  6/1
                  Slow
                  0
                  0
                  0.0
                  0.0
                  0.0
                  5
                  NEWPORT GUY
                  5
                  7/2
                  Slow/Trouble-prone
                  81
                  74
                  7.4
                  0.0
                  0.0
                  6
                  TRENTS TOYS
                  6
                  5/2
                  Slow
                  85
                  80
                  8.6
                  0.0
                  0.0
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                  Comment

                  • Can'tPickAWinner
                    Super Moderator
                    • Nov 2012
                    • 358322

                    #10
                    Handicapped by The Walker Group at Albuquerque

                    Always check program numbers.
                    Odds shown are morning line odds.




                    Race 7 - Derby - 400y on the Dirt. Purse: $252077 Class Rating: 92

                    QUARTER HORSE 400Y, THE "NEW MEXICO STATE FAIR" Q.H. DERBY R-G3 (VALUE OF FINAL $252,076. - GRADE 3 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BREDS, WHICH QUALIFIED FOR THE NEW MEXICO STATE FAIR DERBY FINALS. WEIGHT.126 LBS. SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATIONS WILL BE ACCEPTED ON OR BEFORE ENTRY DATE FOR THE TRIALS IN THE AMOUNT OF $12,500, WHICH WILL INCLUDE ALL FEES . TRIALS: TO BE

                    RECOMMENDED CHOICES
                    # 2 DONELLI 2/1
                    # 5 JESS GETAWAY 4/1
                    # 4 DARK MOON 3/1
                    I've got to go with DONELLI. Will probably come out sharp - I have liked the way this filly has moved sharply to the front end recently. Overall the speed figures of this pony look competitive in this contest. Have to consider solely on class, with some of the top class figures of this field. JESS GETAWAY - Belloc has a solid 15 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. Have to suppose this animal will do well again this time around. DARK MOON - With a formidable 92 Equibase speed fig last time out, will unquestionably be a factor in this affair. The average class figure of 78 makes this horse difficult to beat.
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                    Comment

                    • Can'tPickAWinner
                      Super Moderator
                      • Nov 2012
                      • 358322

                      #11
                      Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts



                      Monmouth Park - Race #4 - Post: 2:04pm - SO - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $30,000 Class Rating: 94

                      Rating:

                      #1 ZITMAN (ML=3/1)
                      #6 WELL DEFINED (ML=9/2)
                      #3 POINTER (ML=20/1)


                      ZITMAN - This rider and trainer have a positive ROI when they are put together. Castillo was aboard this gelding last out and was impressed enough to take the animal right back. Pantaleo brings him back again. I recommend you stay with this live gelding. That 89 fig this gelding notched in his last contest tells me he's a main player this time out. WELL DEFINED - Gelding has shown some pace. This shorter trip should be better for him. Is ranked number one in the field in earnings per start. A strong effort right here can augment that bankroll. POINTER - Look for this one to go all the way home at some pretty good odds in today's race. Ran fourth in last race, but not more than 5 from the lead at the finish line.

                      Vulnerable Contenders: #2 ITS ALL RELEVANT (ML=1/1), #5 POSTINO'S VOW (ML=5/1), #4 SO HOT (ML=6/1),

                      ITS ALL RELEVANT - Doubtful that this animal will finish better than he did last time when finishing fifth. Don't believe this vulnerable equine will make an impact in today's race. That last speed rating was disappointing when compared with today's class rating. POSTINO'S VOW - The addition of bandages last time around the track is usually a sign of deteriorating form. SO HOT - He showed not much at all in the last event.


                      STRAIGHT WAGERS: Bet on #1 ZITMAN to win if we can get at least 3/1 odds
                      EXACTA WAGERS: Box [1,3,6]

                      TRIFECTA WAGERS:
                      Box [1,3,6] Total Cost: $6
                      SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass
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                      Comment

                      • Can'tPickAWinner
                        Super Moderator
                        • Nov 2012
                        • 358322

                        #12
                        Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Churchill Downs



                        09/20/20, CD, Race 10, 5.26 ET
                        09/20/20,CD,10,6 1/2F [Dirt] 1:14:02 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $31,000. FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 121 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Claiming Price $50,000.
                        . . . .
                        Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
                        After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
                        100.0000 5 Pretty Plum 6-1 Cannon D VanMeter William B. SFC 73 35.62 1.45/$1
                        098.2991 2 Creative Legacy 9/2 Saez G Jones J. Larry W 73 35.62 1.45/$1
                        097.8773 4 Orencia(b+) 5/2 Lanerie C J Walsh Brendan P. 73 35.62 1.45/$1
                        097.6424 9 Charmed One 8-1 Gaffalione T Moquett Ron J 73 35.62 1.45/$1
                        097.4745 6 Treaty of Paris 5-1 Santana. Jr. R Asmussen Steven M. TE 73 35.62 1.45/$1
                        097.1499 3 Hopecandiesgood 4-1 Cohen D Simms Garry W. L 73 35.62 1.45/$1
                        095.5261 1 My Destiny 10-1 Graham J Colebrook Ben 73 35.62 1.45/$1
                        094.8515 7 Shesalittle Edgy 12-1 Garcia M Bradley William B. 73 35.62 1.45/$1
                        092.3048 8 Now Playing 15-1 Hernandez C J Barnett Bobby C. 73 35.62 1.45/$1
                        * Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 31.25, ROI 0.95/$1
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                        Comment

                        • Can'tPickAWinner
                          Super Moderator
                          • Nov 2012
                          • 358322

                          #13
                          Handicapped by The Walker Group at Hastings Park

                          Always check program numbers.
                          Odds shown are morning line odds.




                          Race 6 - Allowance - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $16000 Class Rating: 87

                          FOR FILLIES THREE AND FOUR YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; FOUR YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 20 ALLOWED 2 LBS. ; SUCH A RACE SINCE JULY 20 ALLOWED 4 LBS.

                          RECOMMENDED CHOICES
                          # 5 SOLARITY 5/2
                          # 6 IRISH LUNA 6/1
                          # 2 NORTHERN GRAYSTAR 9/5
                          My pick in this competition is SOLARITY. Has strong early lick and will probably fare strongly against this group. Put up a competitive speed rating last time out. Has been moving solidly and has among the best speed in the race for today's distance. IRISH LUNA - She has a good opportunity here as trainer, Henson, has strong win rate with horses going this distance. Recent figures for the jockey - 23 win percent - make this filly stand out in this group. NORTHERN GRAYSTAR - Has a very solid record at the distance and surface, which makes me have to support this filly. Should keep the good string of finishes intact this time around.
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                          Comment

                          • Can'tPickAWinner
                            Super Moderator
                            • Nov 2012
                            • 358322

                            #14
                            Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts



                            Emerald Downs - Race #2 - Post: 2:28pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,800 Class Rating: 77

                            Rating:

                            #5 PURELY POLITICAL (ML=2/1)


                            PURELY POLITICAL - Taking a big class drop in Equibase class figure points from his August 2nd race at Golden Gate Fields. Based on that data, I will give this animal the advantage. This late closer looks to be the one to make a move near the wire. You have to like that recent race speed rating, 78, which is the best recent race speed rating of this group.

                            Vulnerable Contenders: #1 I WORK FOR CARROTS (ML=9/5), #6 ONLY THE HIGH ROAD (ML=9/2), #3 PREACHINATDINNER (ML=6/1),

                            I WORK FOR CARROTS - A bit of a lackluster effort when this gelding finished fifth. I have some doubts when a racer has bandages added in the last affair. ONLY THE HIGH ROAD - This thoroughbred likes to be there at the wire, but doesn't usually finish first. Forget the top spot. PREACHINATDINNER - When examining today's Equibase class figure, he will have to earn a better speed rating than last out to battle in this dirt route.

                            GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - PURELY POLITICAL - One of the class angles that my best bud Steve and I play, is to look at the lifetime earnings per start. This thoroughbred is number one in my book.





                            STRAIGHT WAGERS: Play #5 PURELY POLITICAL to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
                            EXACTA WAGERS: 5 with 1

                            TRIFECTA WAGERS:
                            Skip
                            SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None
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                            • Can'tPickAWinner
                              Super Moderator
                              • Nov 2012
                              • 358322

                              #15
                              Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Monmouth Park



                              09/20/20, MTH, Race 5, 2.29 ET
                              09/20/20,MTH,5,1 1/16M [Turf] 1:39:01 CLAIMING. Purse $21,000. (PLUS UP TO 40% NJB) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS OR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since July 20 Allowed 3 lbs. Claiming Price $16,000, For Each $1,000 To $14,000 1 lb. (Races Where Entered For $12,500 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances). (Rail at 24 feet).
                              . . . .
                              Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
                              After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
                              100.0000 6 If Not Now 6-1 Peterson F Huston Rory K. FEC 43 48.84 1.34/$1
                              098.1154 4 Fly Nightly 3-1 Vargas. Jr. J A Stidham Michael S 101 39.60 1.05/$1
                              097.9155 5 Pretendant 7/2 Lopez P Breen Kelly J. JT 72 31.94 1.08/$1
                              095.5565 12 Bee by the Sea 6-1 Mejia T B McCarthy Brenda 72 31.94 1.08/$1
                              094.4166 9 Graycapade 10-1 Diaz. Jr. H R Carvajal. Jr. Luis W 72 31.94 1.08/$1
                              094.2537 3 Thenorthremembers 4-1 Maragh R R Schettino Domenick L. 72 31.94 1.08/$1
                              093.8563 2 Lion Charmer 4-1 Garcia W A O'Connor. II Robert R. 72 31.94 1.08/$1
                              093.8215 11 Brown Essence 6-1 Batista J A Mazza Joseph W. 72 31.94 1.08/$1
                              093.0669 1 Florentine Kitten 15-1 Juarez N Frangella. Jr. James A 72 31.94 1.08/$1
                              092.8220 10 Radcliffe Royale 30-1 Torres J Deiter Kelly Lynn 72 31.94 1.08/$1
                              092.5930 7 Pricing Exercise 8-1 Hernandez C J Mc Allen John P. 72 31.94 1.08/$1
                              092.0005 13 Candy Kingdom 15-1 Panaijo J Foglia Anthony 72 31.94 1.08/$1
                              091.7438 14 Bob in Our Midst 15-1 Gonzalez J L Toscano. Jr. John T. L 72 31.94 1.08/$1
                              090.2681 8 Change of Venue 30-1 Panaijo J Vuyosevich Jeanne L. 72 31.94 1.08/$1
                              * Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 33.33, ROI 0.72/$1
                              If Race Is Off Turf

                              Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
                              After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
                              100.0000 6 If Not Now 6-1 Peterson F Huston Rory K. FEC 151 42.38 1.20/$1
                              098.2985 4 Fly Nightly 3-1 Vargas. Jr. J A Stidham Michael TS 195 42.05 1.09/$1
                              096.8605 5 Pretendant 7/2 Lopez P Breen Kelly J. J 151 42.38 1.20/$1
                              095.4724 12 Bee by the Sea 6-1 Mejia T B McCarthy Brenda 151 42.38 1.20/$1
                              094.3927 2 Lion Charmer 4-1 Garcia W A O'Connor. II Robert R. 195 42.05 1.09/$1
                              094.3187 11 Brown Essence 6-1 Batista J A Mazza Joseph W. W 195 42.05 1.09/$1
                              093.9380 1 Florentine Kitten 15-1 Juarez N Frangella. Jr. James A 195 42.05 1.09/$1
                              093.6113 3 Thenorthremembers 4-1 Maragh R R Schettino Domenick L. 195 42.05 1.09/$1
                              093.5319 9 Graycapade 10-1 Diaz. Jr. H R Carvajal. Jr. Luis 151 42.38 1.20/$1
                              093.1713 10 Radcliffe Royale 30-1 Torres J Deiter Kelly Lynn 195 42.05 1.09/$1
                              093.0965 7 Pricing Exercise 8-1 Hernandez C J Mc Allen John P. 151 42.38 1.20/$1
                              092.4839 13 Candy Kingdom 15-1 Panaijo J Foglia Anthony 195 42.05 1.09/$1
                              091.6486 14 Bob in Our Midst 15-1 Gonzalez J L Toscano. Jr. John T. L 195 42.05 1.09/$1
                              089.1211 8 Change of Venue 30-1 Panaijo J Vuyosevich Jeanne L. 195 42.05 1.09/$1
                              * Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 31.43, ROI 0.79/$1
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