Tuesday 9/22/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

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Finger Lakes - Race #1

#4 Colonial Lass	Stalker comes out of a pair of fast races for the level, so the fact she was well beat can be excused a bit, and she'll be a price and can sit just off the speed; upset special.
#1 Bayshore Beauty	The gal to beat was a distant 2nd at the level last time but has had a nice year, and she's another who should trip out off the speed, though this is a tricky post; second-best.
#7 Dosage and Mimosas	Class riser was all-out to win last time, so this group could be a bit much, plus this wide draw did her no favors, at expected underlaid odds as well; making her prove it on top.
Race Summary	The price will be right on the 4, and the race flow should be too, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially to kick off the early Pk4 as well, as she fits nicely on paper, but may get overlooked, which means a win would knock plenty of tickets out right off the bat.

Finger Lakes - Race #4

#7 Spirit of Life	Jeremiah firster goes for a 20% debut barn, cost (33k) over five times her sire Tapiture's 7.5k stud fee, and meets a modest group of proven runners filled with speed; thinking she's live.
#3 Maddy Black	The best of the proven runners has run well without winning in four straight, which could turn into a worry, but she's best on paper, and can stalk too, which will help her chances; big chance.
#4 Graphite Dutchess	Tricky read showed a stalking gear last time and finished ahead of the 3, so a repeat makes her a major player, though you wonder if regression is coming off such a strong run; tread lightly.
Race Summary	Tab the tote on the 7, as you'd like to see her live and taking money if she's ready, and if that's the case you can play her in all the slots, though you can get some additional value by using her to end the early Pk4, and kick off the Pk5 as well, since she won't have to be a star to have a big say against a group like this.

Finger Lakes - Race #7

#4 Hardstonemelody	Class riser looked good pulling away late last time, and while this group is much tougher, the race flow will aid her stalking style, and she'll be a square price as well; call right back.
#1 Lune Lake	Stiff ML favorite has won three straight, and aired in her last two, and if she clears she's gone, but there's speed to her outside, and this is a class rise too; may come up wanting late.
#6 Treatherlikestar	Dangerous miss was a distant 3rd last time, but that was her first start of the year, so if she improves she's a player, and note she was facing open gals last time too; do not ignore.
Race Summary	There's a chance the 4 falls through the wagering cracks, with the 1 taking all the money, but they both come out of a win at the same level, so there's no reason she can't be a player here, especially with a sharp pace to settle off of, so play her in all the slots, and especially in the Pk5, and late Pk4 as well, as budget players will be singling the chalk, which means a win by the pick would knock out a lot of tickets from both sequences.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Mountaineer - Race #2

#4 The Pirates	His form has really come back around since moving back to the turf, and his recent running lines should make him tough if he can hold that form.
#9 General Direction	Romped at Colonial in the only career turf start, and he has already proven capable with the locals after an allowance win last November.
#7 Start From Scratch	Has a bit of versatility in the pedigree and should be able to get a pretty good trip right near the top. Turf is the question, but he seems capable at a price.
Race Summary	The Pirates has a right to be tough in this spot with the recent turf form looking pretty tough to get around, and there isn't a whole lot in here to worry about except some potential upside on the grass from General Direction.

Mountaineer - Race #3

#6 Swingabigstick	Speed has a right to be tough in a spot without much other pace, and he looks like the one to beat if he handles the turf.
#8 Unbridledselection	Forward player should be in the mix with the top choice early, and although he has had nine chances, he's a bit intriguing with only the one good turf try under his belt.
#2 Eveningwithbernie	Has shown little in two starts, but he was in with much deeper last out at Kentucky Downs and is worth a small look going long locally.
Race Summary	Swingabigstick should make a break for it early here, and he has moved forward nicely since adding blinkers. There isn't much else in here to worry about.

Mountaineer - Race #4

#4 Tiz Beauty	Owns a couple of decent route races in the past, and his local running lines have been solid, producing a 10:5-3-1 slate over the Mountaineer main.
#7 Mushaboom	Found the local company more than a bit to her liking last out, and they don't get greedy as far as class goes off the romp. Anything similar to the last one makes her the one.
#5 Foxy Gator	Seems more likely to land underneath than anywhere else, but she has consistent running lines that could be enough to land her a piece.
Race Summary	Tiz Beauty is worth a look while stretching out, as some of those Turfway route tries would be more than enough to handle this bunch.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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The Meadows - Race #1

#4 ROLLIN WITHHOLLY A	Worked hard, tried to fight back from tight spot in stretch.
#7 SWEET SUE	Re-took the lead through fast fractions on the backside, just missed.
#9 KISSMYDANCESHOES	Won four of last five, mostly from outside posts.
Race Summary	It’s a rematch of the main contenders from a week ago, but will it be a replay? Rollin Withholly A emerged from an early 4-way battle to lead into the backstretch, yielded to the pocket when Sweet Sue re-took the top spot, then was in tight in deep stretch with some run when Kissmydanceshoes swooped past. Play a 4-ALL exacta.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #2

#6 LONE WOLF TERROR	Unhurried, blocked in stretch, full of run late, today’s Best Bet.
#1 P L IDAHO	Has the speed to go a long way from the rail in repeat bid.
#5 JULERICA	Faded first over, better post, claimed out of his last five starts.
Race Summary	Lone Wolf Terror was not asked for run until the stretch, ran into traffic and closed with a rush as the beaten favorite. He can return a quick dividend off the claim for new connections. Play 6-1 and 6-5 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #5

#8 MANHATTAN AGAIN	Lacked running room throughout at half-mile oval, deserves another chance.
#6 REIS STAR CROSS	Rallied for a second and a third at 25-1 and 22-1 in last two starts.
#5 TWIN B TIPSTER	Ranged up, flattened out as favorite to fall to 0-17 this year.
Race Summary	Manhattan Again returns with second-time Lasix off a nightmarish trip at Grand River. She was trapped 3-deep on the rail the entire race and squeezed through too late on the inside as the overwhelming favorite.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

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Indiana Grand - Race #3

#1 Five Grand	Gets a chance to stretched out after being outrun in quick sprints; should be able to get on or close to the front end and might find that to his liking
#6 Bahnke	Has a decent late move and can benefit from a quick; all of his experience at two turns can help.
#3 Cj's Billy'sempire	Takes a step up in conditions after he just won a N3L and took a N2L race two earlier; stretches out and can be in the mix throughout.
Race Summary	Five Grand comes out of sprints, likely will show speed and can be a big player as he stretches out.

Indiana Grand - Race #5

#2 Impact Player	Was third in his last four and has raced at a variety of tracks; is usually good in sprints anywhere he goes.
#3 Greeley and Ben	Lost a photo last time out at Ellis and hasn't raced at this six-furlong distance in 11 months; likely a late threat today.
#4 Boyfriend Material	Has won three straight at Indiana Grand and definitely moved up when he first arrived; can battle out front but also can be a stalker.
Race Summary	Impact Player has performed well in good races and rates an edge in this good sprint.

Indiana Grand - Race #9

#1 Blue Steel	Has good speed, can benefit from the rail draw and could be the one to catch at a good price.
#3 Perfectly Majestic	Closed strongly and won going away in his first over the Indiana turf; capable of another big late run.
#10 Surge Pricing	Has speed and comes off a sharp win at Ellis; usually in the mix from the start and would not be a surprise.
Race Summary	Blue Steel gets a good chance to get to the lead from the inside and is likely to improve in this scenario.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rk	Sports Services	Free Sports Picks
1.	NSA(The Legend)	NBA – Lakers -6.5
2.	Gameday Network	NBA – Lakers under 214
3.	VegasSI.com	MLB – Red Sox -105
4.	Vegas Line Crushers	MLB – Phillies GM1 -1.5
5.	Sports Action 365	MLB – Rays -130
6.	Point Spread Report	MLB – Diamondbacks under 9
7.	Lou Panelli	NBA – Lakers -6.5
8.	Gerry “Big Cat” Andino	NBA – Lakers under 214
9.	VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club	MLB – Dodgers -160
10.	William E. Stockton	MLB – Rockies +120
11.	Vincent Pioli	MLB – Royals +105
12.	Steve “Scoop” Kendall	MLB – Indians over 8.5
13.	SCORE	MLB – Royals +105
14.	East Coast Line Movers	MLB – Red Sox over 10.5
15.	Tony Campone	NBA – Lakers -6.5
16.	Chicago Sports Group	NBA – Lakers under 214
17.	Hollywood Sportsline	MLB – Dodgers under 9
18.	VIP Action	MLB – Yankees -1.5
19.	South Beach Sports	MLB – Reds -150
20.	Las Vegas Sports Commission	MLB – Rockies +120
21.	NY Players Club	NBA – Lakers -6.5
22.	Fred Callahan	NBA – Lakers under 214
23.	Las Vegas Private CEO Club	MLB – Astros -180
24.	Michigan Sports	MLB – Phillies GM1 -1.5
25.	National Consensus Report	MLB – Rays -130

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Indiana Downs

Indiana Downs - Race 3	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)
Claiming $5,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 81 • Purse: $11,000 • Post: 3:16P
FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE JUNE 15 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 22 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. CRAFTY SPECTOR is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CRAFTY SPECTOR: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. BAHNKE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CONQUEST STORMY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest average Equibase Cla ss Rating at the distance/surface.
4	CRAFTY SPECTOR	20/1	3/1
6	BAHNKE	6/5	7/1
2	CONQUEST STORMY	10/1	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	CRAFTY SPECTOR	4	20/1	Front-runner	87	82	87.8	64.2	57.2
6	BAHNKE	6	6/5	Stalker	82	74	61.5	70.2	65.7
2	CONQUEST STORMY	2	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	86	79	80.4	64.6	56.1
3	CJ'S BILLY'SEMPIRE	3	9/5	Alternator/Stalker	76	68	54.0	56.9	44.4
5	DARKNSTORMYTIME	5	8/1	Trailer	78	72	46.6	69.2	60.7
1	FIVE GRAND	1	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	85	85	61.5	52.9	44.9
7	CLOSE THE CASE	7	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	76	75	58.6	58.6	47.6
8	C JS BILLY BYU	8	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	78	68	58.1	52.6	42.1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mountaineer Park

Mountaineer Park - Race 8	$2 Daily Double (races 8-9) $2 Exacta $1 Box $1 Trifecta $.50 Box$1 Superfecta $.20 Box
Claiming $4,000 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 76 • Purse: $7,300 • Post: 9:34P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE SEPTEMBER 22, 2019. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 22 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000 (W V A BRED RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * LATE CALLER: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. PEQUENO GRANDE: Horse has run a G ood Race within the last 30 days. ICE KAUFY: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). CARDCOUNTER: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/s urface. TIGER ALLEY: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
3	LATE CALLER	3/1	4/1
7	PEQUENO GRANDE	8/1	6/1
2	ICE KAUFY	7/2	9/1
8	CARDCOUNTER	6/1	9/1
4	TIGER ALLEY	8/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	TIGER ALLEY	4	8/1	Front-runner	86	69	76.4	58.6	45.1
6	BERN CIGARS	6	6/1	Front-runner	78	70	72.4	53.8	41.3
2	ICE KAUFY	2	7/2	Front-runner	85	76	67.4	63.6	51.1
8	CARDCOUNTER	8	6/1	Front-runner	80	65	66.8	63.0	58.0
5	SLEEPING GIANT	5	9/2	Front-runner	74	65	65.6	57.2	51.2
1	REJUVENATE	1	8/1	Stalker	71	58	66.0	59.6	48.6
3	LATE CALLER	3	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	85	67	52.0	71.6	68.6
7	PEQUENO GRANDE	7	8/1	Trailer	81	78	43.4	66.0	59.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Thistledown

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $24300 Class Rating: 88

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OPTIONAL, STARTER, OR OHIO BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 22 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 22 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 (CLAIMING RACES

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 HAWT MESS 5/2
# 4 J P'S GLADYS 3/1
# 2 BELLA DUDETTE 6/1

HAWT MESS has a respectable shot to take this race. With Machado in the saddle guiding her, this filly will almost certainly be able to break out early for this event. Is a key contender - given the 78 speed figure from her most recent race. Has a strong shot in this race if you like back class. J P'S GLADYS - She has been running strongly and the speed figures are among the most competitive in this group. BELLA DUDETTE - Has run strongly when racing a dirt sprint race. Should be considered here on the basis of the numbers in the speed section alone.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Presque Isle Downs - Race #1 - Post: 4:45pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 48

Rating:

#7 SHOOT YOUR CUFFS (ML=6/1)
#4 LUCKY UNLUCKY (ML=8/5)


SHOOT YOUR CUFFS - As the only speedball in the race, I expect this gelding to be long gone. I like to see fast works. This gelding's last one was very good. Second fastest of the day. Have to like the way Bourke has raced this gelding back into shape off the layoff. Animal is well spotted in this sprint and I think he'll run well today. LUCKY UNLUCKY - Russell drops him down to this level. You don't need too much more handicapping information to think this animal should be one of the top contenders at this level. This gelding's last figure is good enough to score here, I'll bet on him right back this time out.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 GALICENO (ML=2/1), #5 STORMBIRD'S SONG (ML=4/1),

GALICENO - You always think this animal has a shot to cross the finish line in first, but he comes up short regularly.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #7 SHOOT YOUR CUFFS to win if we can get at least 7/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Louisiana Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $12000 Class Rating: 65

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 22 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $17,500, IF FOR $15,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 BELMAR BEAUTY 9/2
# 14 IGNIS 5/2
# 8 STAR PRADO 4/1

I like BELMAR BEAUTY here. Overall the Equibase Speed Figures of this horse look decent in this outing. This filly obviously likes the distance, going 1 out of 6 in her races lately. Is a solid choice - given the 82 speed figure from her most recent race. IGNIS - Dominguez has a win percent of 25 over the last month. Had one of the most favorable speed figures of this group in her last contest. STAR PRADO - Should expect a much improved attempt with the drop. Always hard to beat Wilson and Rodriguez working together, winning 18 percent of their races.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Parx Racing - Race #10 - Post: 4:58pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 50

Rating:

#3 GROOVE (ML=4/1)
#5 ROCKFORD GIRL (ML=9/2)


GROOVE - Trainer Gonzalez moves this one to a lower class rank to face a less competitive field. Look for a good performance this time out. This jock/handler duo has been producing a very positive ROI, right at +47. Dropping 7 pounds from last race. Could be a deciding factor today. ROCKFORD GIRL - All systems look good for this filly. Last prep, 2nd fastest of the day, shows she's fit and ready. Have to give this filly a shot. Ran a nice outing last time around the track within the last 30 days.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 FLY TIME (ML=3/1), #6 VINAIGRETTE (ML=7/2), #7 PRINCES DYNAMITE (ML=5/1),

FLY TIME - Finished eighth last time. Would have to advance to be on the board in today's event. VINAIGRETTE - Can't wager on this less than sharp equine in today's sprint of 6 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a sprint event recently. Don't feel this steed will do much running today. That last speed rating was most unsatisfactory when compared with today's Equibase class figure. PRINCES DYNAMITE - No value in throwing a few bucks at this steed. Probably won't improve off that September 8th event. 5/1 odds isn't enough for this thoroughbred when examining the most recent efforts.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #3 GROOVE on the win end if we get at least 7/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA
Dunkel

Tuesday, September 22

Connecticut @ Las Vegas

Game 617-618
September 22, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Connecticut
111.948
Las Vegas
119.202
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Las Vegas
by 7 12
166
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Las Vegas
by 5
163
Dunkel Pick:
Las Vegas
(-5); Over

Minnesota @ Seattle

Game 615-616
September 22, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
110.228
Seattle
120.607
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 10 1/2
160
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 8
164
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-8); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, September 22

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MINNESOTA (15 - 8) vs. SEATTLE (18 - 4) - 9/22/2020, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 8-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 8-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CONNECTICUT (13 - 12) vs. LAS VEGAS (18 - 5) - 9/22/2020, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CONNECTICUT is 5-4 against the spread versus LAS VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
CONNECTICUT is 5-4 straight up against LAS VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
7 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA

Tuesday, September 22

Trend Report

Connecticut @ Las Vegas
Connecticut
Connecticut is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Connecticut is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Las Vegas
Las Vegas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Las Vegas is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home