Monday 9/28/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-24-2020, 09:06 AM

Tech Trends - Week 3
Bruce Marshall

Monday, Sept. 28

KANSAS CITY at BALTIMORE (ESPN, 8:15 p.m. ET)

Chiefs stretched win and cover streak to 10 in opener vs. Texans, though failed to get money vs. Bolts last week.
Andy Reid also 9-2 as dog since 2017, and won close games at Arrowhead (but covered neither) the past two years vs. Baltimore.
Ravens however have won 14 straight reg.-season games SU, covering 11 of last 12.
Last three meetings “over” including LY.

Tech edge: “Over” and slight to Ravens, based on “totals” and team trends.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-24-2020, 09:07 AM

489KANSAS CITY -490 BALTIMORE
KANSAS CITY is 12-4 ATS (7.6 Units) against conference opponents in the last 2 seasons.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-24-2020, 09:07 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 3

Monday, September 28

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS CITY (2 - 0) at BALTIMORE (2 - 0) - 9/28/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 61-38 ATS (+19.2 Units) in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-1 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 2-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-24-2020, 09:16 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 3

Monday, September 28

Kansas City @ Baltimore

Game 489-490
September 28, 2020 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
139.135
Baltimore
150.460
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 11 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 3
53 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(-3); Under

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-24-2020, 09:16 AM

NFL

Week 3

Chiefs (2-0) @ Baltimore (2-0)
— Chiefs won their first two games, scoring 34-23 points- they rallied from behind to beat the rival Chargers in OT last week.
— KC has converted 14-28 third down plays; they made two 58-yard FG’s last week.
— Last 4+ years, Chiefs are 10-2 ATS as a road underdog.

— Ravens won their first two games, scoring 38-33 points.
— Baltimore has five takeaways, is already +4 in turnovers- they outscored first two opponents 27-6 in 2nd half.
— Ravens are 9-15 ATS in last 24 games as a home favorite.

— Chiefs won last three series games, by 20-3-5 points.
— KC beat the Ravens 33-28 LY in Week 3; they’ve won four of last five trips to Baltimore.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-28-2020, 06:19 AM

Al Cimaglia: Woodbine Mohawk Park Early Pick 5 Analysis

September 28, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Tonight, there are 10-races on the Woodbine Mohawk program. The feature comes in Race 5, an Ontario Sires Stakes Gold Final with a $158,000 purse. The 0.20 Pick 5 opens the card, it has a $100,000 guaranteed pool and will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 1

2-Prayerforthewicked (3-1)-Gets a new pilot tonight and Roy will probably look to get a close-up seat. Alagna trainee will need the right trip, and is in a spot to get sucked around and shake loose late.
5-No Free Lunch (7/2)-Had been facing Gold company in June and July until scratched sick and then missed over a month. Returned last week, raced from the back while starting from post 8 but rolled the last half in 54.2. Could be sitting on a big try.
7-Socrates Blue Chip (5/2)-Drops but hasn't raced since 9/5. Has been cashing checks versus top 2-year-olds here and at GrVr. Probably the fastest freshman in the field and can grind way around if ready to go after the time-off.

Race 2

3-Arcanum (8-1)-Slow starts are an issue but may have met a beatable field. Comes off a nice try and if MacDonell can get into a live cover flow the fractions might be swift enough to roll by the leaders at a nice price.
6-Fortune Starlet (5-1)-Comes off a 4th place finish to Romona Hill and should relish the company. Ought to get a good seat from this post and be in striking range down the lane.
8-Nimbus Deo (4-1)-Winner in 3 of 4 starts all happening at Wbsb and now seeks 4th straight picture. Baillargeon barn has cooled off some in the past 30 days but best to respect connections here.

Race 3

3-Pikachu Hanover (3-1)-Has had some issues this year but does have 5 wins in 17 races. This will be the 4th start since some time off after a sick scratch. Gets a little post relief, McClure sticks and has won 8 of 21 starts at Wbsb.
5-Cool Muscle (5/2)-Consistent 6-year-old has finished 2nd in the last 5 starts and those winners are not in this field. Looks like a major player, could be put in play sooner and take 1st picture since 8/3.

Race 4

5-Moneymakehersmile (3-1)-Has been 1st or 2nd in last 3 starts and figures to be a threat versus this crew but is only 1-17 at Mohawk. Main nemesis starts outside from post 9 and that could be a big edge.
7-Miss Rockadali (8-1)-Was used hard from the 8-hole and did get the point but the 55.4 half did take its toll. Faded badly but was off for 17 days and it was the 1st start for new barn. McNair sticks and will look for a return to recent form and a big effort at a juicy price.
9-Vines To Heaven (7/2)-Won last in a claim and 1st start for Moreau angle. Has won 8 of 45 races at Wbsb and tonight makes the 1st start for the Fritz barn. That conditioner is about as successful as Moreau with 1st time staters after a claim, so best to respect.

Race 5

6-HP Royal Theo (3-1)-Gets a little post relief and will probably have a better trip than in last 2 starts. Did break late in the mile on 9/19 and will write that off due to a tough trip. This is a competitive group, but Roy might blast out and get the top. That seems to be the recipe for a winning formula as there isn't much gate speed inside.
8-Hot Wheelz (9/2)-Has been racing well and Jamieson has some options from this post. My guess is he won't look to get on the engine but could find a good seat. Can win this at a square price coming off cover and it wouldn't be a surprise if a sub .56 half is in the cards.

0.20 Early Pick 5

2,5,7/3,6,8/3,5/5,7,9/6,8
Total Bet=$21.60

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-28-2020, 06:50 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mountaineer - Race #2

#6 Without Malice	Tests the turf for the first time with a couple of good local efforts over the main track, and she's bred to handle the new footing just fine.
#5 Sky Knight	Forward player posted an easy win here last out on the grass before getting DQ'ed, and he's worth a look for a piece of this at a price.
#3 Anywhere Road	He didn't show much in the two turf tries, but he's better now than he was back then and might be able to land a share of this on the surface switch.
Race Summary	Without Malice probably isn't much on the tote, but he's got a big claim on this with some early speed and a couple of decent recent efforts under his belt.

Mountaineer - Race #3

#8 Dream Saturday	Has only tried the turf once, but he brings a really good last race with him to this and can be tough if he can improve on his only turf effort.
#1 Spirit of Caledon	Shows some occasional finishing ability, and he isn't totally exposed on the grass with just one lifetime try over the footing. Drops with a chance.
#3 Good Morning Jack	Tends to give away ground late in his races, but he doesn't meet a ton of pace in this one and can hang around late for a share.
Race Summary	Dream Saturday looks tough if he can hold something close to his recent form with these, and there predictably isn't much signed on in this spot for non-winners of a turf race.

Mountaineer - Race #4

#1 Rushing Time	Never thrilled about taking a nine-start maiden, but this filly figures to control the pace from the inside off a neck loss in his local debut.
#2 Minniemorepromises	Has been up the track with some groups that were deeper than what she'll find here, but she's coming into an ice cold local barn.
#4 Nancy Knowsthemath	Tactical speed doesn't typically bring much late punch, but she's a reliable enough sort who figures to work her way into the trifecta again.
Race Summary	Rushing Time doesn't meet much other speed and should have the front end to herself after battling for the lead last time out.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-28-2020, 06:51 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Indiana Grand - Race #6

#1 Boa Nova	Ran fourth at Arlington in his second off the claim by Garcia and was third over this course two races back; has the speed to be close early but also has the closing kick on his best day.
#8 Secretary At War	Ran his last three of Churchill, Saratoga and Kentucky Downs and had a third and a pair of fourths; has the class to be in the thick of things.
#6 Jazzy Times	Was outrun in the G2 Turf Sprint at Churchill last out and has some good races on his form; fits with these.
Race Summary	Boa Nova has the tactical speed to be where he wants and can get the jump on closers.

Indiana Grand - Race #8

#1 War Rose	Won in her last appearance here, just prior to a trip to Kentucky Downs, where she was unplaced in an ultra-fast race. Returns and lands in a good spot.
#3 Naomi Broadway	Has a steady string of works for her first try in the U.S. after running in graded stakes races in her native Brazil. Capable of a good effort.
#6 Hampton Spring	Makes her first Indiana appearance after winning three of her last four at Belterra Park.
Race Summary	War Rose can get a good trip along the inside and has the speed to be a strong factor from the start> Has what it takes to hold off this group.

Indiana Grand - Race #9

#4 I'm an Eight	Won two straight and then didn't fire in his last at Canterbury; faced good rivals and can be a factor at this price.
#3 Firewater Jake	Gave up the ship after setting fast early fractions vs. a higher level. Takes a steps down in class and can be a player from the beginning.
#1 Witch Doctor	Has speed and an inside post and might be overlooked since he's stepping up in class; five of his last six were good.
Race Summary	I'm an Eight gave way from early efforts last out and should get a more relaxed trip here

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-28-2020, 09:24 AM

Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens 9/28/20 - NFL

In Monday night NFL action, the Kansas City Chiefs will invade M&T Bank Stadium to take on the Baltimore Ravens. The defending Super Bowl Champion Chiefs are off to a 2-0 start and are the favorites to repeat. On Sunday, Kansas City rallied from a 11-point second half deficit to earn a 23-20 overtime victory at Los Angeles. Harrison Butker kicked a 58-yard field goal with less than two minutes remaining to give the Chiefs the win.

Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes completed 27 of his 47 passing attempts for 302 yards and two touchdowns. Tyreek Hill hauled in five passes for 99 yards and a score for the Chiefs.

The Baltimore Ravens fell a game short of a meeting with Kansas City in the AFC Championship game and have won their first two games by 49 points. On Sunday, Baltimore built a ten-point halftime lead and were never threatened in the second half of a 33-16 road triumph over Houston. The Ravens rushed for 230 yards and did not turn the ball over on the afternoon.

MVP Lamar Jackson spread the ball out to nine Baltimore receivers and finished with a 113.9 QBR. Veteran RB Mark Ingram rushed for 55 yards and a score for the Ravens.

Recent Betting Trends

Chiefs are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog.
Ravens are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.
Over is 5-1 in Chiefs last 6 games as a road underdog.
Over is 5-2 in Chiefs last 7 Monday games.
Over is 4-0 in Ravens last 4 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

Free NFL Pick: OVER 53.5

Baltimore CB Tavon Young tore his ACL on Sunday and will miss the rest of the season. Both teams are averaging more than 28 points a game and we will be in for a shootout on Monday night. Take the over to cash. Final Score Prediction, Baltimore Ravens win but over is our top play 31-28.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-28-2020, 09:25 AM

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS. BALTIMORE RAVENS PREDICTIONS

PICKS

KC Chiefs Win +3.5 Point Spread
-110

Under 53.5 Game Totals
-110

Point Spread Pick
It is another early-season battle between the two Super Bowl favorites, the Baltimore Ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs. They faced each other in Week 3 of last year, as well, and Kansas City came away with a 33-28 home victory. Now the Ravens have home-field advantage, which is the main reason why they are favored by 3.5 points. In a showdown featuring what are almost without debate the two best teams in the league, getting more than a field goal could really come in handy. That is why the smart bet is on the Chiefs, who are 2-0 following a rout of visiting Houston and a road victory over the Chargers in overtime. Don’t be surprised if this comes down to a winning field goal by one of the two best kickers in football-either K.C.’s Harrison Butker or Baltimore’s Justin Tucker. In either case, 3.5 points would be enough for Kansas City. The Chiefs are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 overall, 12-5-1 ATS in their last 16 on the road, 6-1 ATS in their last seven against opponents with winning records, and 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine against the AFC. Baltimore is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 as a home favorite and 2-6 ATS in its last eight at home against opponents with winning road records. Take Kansas City and the points.

Game Totals Pick
It is true that Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are playing like the two most recent NFL MVPs that they are, but this is a big number and these two defenses are no slouches. Baltimore ranks third in the league in total defense, fifth in yards per play allowed, and first in turnovers forced (five). Kansas City has limited its first two opponents to 20 points apiece–not dominant totals but at the same time solid efforts. Although Jackson is awesome, the Ravens haven’t been getting much from any of their running backs. The under is 4-0 in the Chiefs’ last four on the road. It is also 4-1 in the Ravens’ last five overall, 4-1 in their last five against the AFC, and 4-0 in their last four as favorites. Go with the under, but obviously proceed with caution when you are dealing with the likes of Mahomes and Jackson.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-28-2020, 09:25 AM

Kansas City Chiefs Vs Baltimore Ravens
Date/Time: September 28, 8:15 p.m. ET
Stadium: U.S. Bank Stadium
TV Coverage: ESPN
Opening Odds: Ravens -2 | O/U 52.5 (Line History)

Opening Odds Analysis
The Ravens kicked things off as 2-point favorites, but the line has since shifted to -3 or even -3.5 in some spots. The total opened at 52.5 but has climbed by a point.

Kansas City News & Notes
After cruising to a Week 1 win over Houston, the Chiefs faced their first bit of adversity in Week 2 as they trailed 17-6 against the Los Angeles Chargers late in the third quarter. But Patrick Mahomes did what he does best, leading the Chiefs offense on a pair of game-tying drives before kicker Harrison Butker – who tied things at the end of regulation – booted the game-winning field goal in OT.

You can’t help but think that Mahomes has yet to hit his stride, having thrown for only 513 yards (but with five touchdowns). But he’ll face what could be one of his toughest tests of 2020 against a Ravens pass defense that has limited opposing quarterbacks to just 210.5 yards per game through the air. This might be the week to take the UNDER on Mahomes’ passing yards prop.

Baltimore News & Notes
Few teams can boast the kind of quarterback star power the Chiefs have – but the Ravens are definitely on that list.

Reigning NFL Most Valuable Player Lamar Jackson is off to another strong start, throwing for 479 yards and four touchdowns while adding 99 yards on the ground. And he has had plenty of help in the run game, with Baltimore averaging 5.1 yards per carry.

Betting Pick: Baltimore -3.5 (-110)

While both teams are off to good starts, the Ravens have the superior defense and have more than enough offense to make life difficult for the visiting Chiefs on Monday night.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-28-2020, 09:25 AM

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS. BALTIMORE RAVENS
The fans at M&T Bank Stadium will be treated to a game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens when they take their seats on Monday.

Oddsmakers opened the Ravens as -2-point favorites versus the Chiefs, while the game's total opened at 52.5.

Baltimore won its last outing, a 33-16 result against the Texans on September 20. The Ravens covered in that game as a -7-point favorite, while the 49 combined points took the game UNDER the total.

Last time out for Kansas City, they were a 23-20 winner as they battled the Chargers on the road. The Chiefs failed to cover in the match as a -9-point favorite, while 43 combined points moved the game UNDER for totals bettors.

Kansas City:
Team record: 2-0 SU,1-1 ATS
Kansas City is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games

Baltimore:
Team record: 2-0 SU,2-0 ATS
Baltimore is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Baltimore is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games

Next up:
Kansas City home to New England Sunday, October 4
Baltimore at Washington Sunday, October 4

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-28-2020, 09:25 AM

Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Baltimore is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games
Baltimore is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Baltimore is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing at home against Kansas City

Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games
Kansas City is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Kansas City is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing on the road against Baltimore

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-28-2020, 09:26 AM

KANSAS CITY (2 - 0) at BALTIMORE (2 - 0) - 9/28/2020, 8:15 PM

Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 61-38 ATS (+19.2 Units) in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-1 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 2-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons