Thursday 10/1/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2020, 07:33 AM

NFL odds Week 4: Opening lines, sharp money & line movement
Patrick Everson

NFL Week 3 is in the books, NFL Week 4 odds are on the betting board, and a few games are already getting action. Among the noteworthy matchups are a couple of AFC clashes: the New England Patriots visit the Kansas City Chiefs, and the Las Vegas Raiders host the unbeaten Buffalo Bills.

The SuperBook at Westgate's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 4 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting.

NFL Week 4 odds

These are the current NFL Week 4 odds, as of September 27.

Broncos at Jets odds

Opening line
Jets +2.5, Over/Under 40

Why the line moved
Denver very likely won't have QB Drew Lock, and definitely won't have standout wideout Courtland Sutton and star linebacker Von Miller, both lost for the season. Yet the Broncos opened -2.5 at The SuperBook, which says a lot about the Jets in this battle of winless teams. There was no line movement Sunday night.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2020, 07:33 AM

Betting Recap - Week 3
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 33-13-1
Against the Spread 25-22

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 25-21-1
Against the Spread 24-23

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 28-18-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Panthers (+6, ML +240) at Chargers, 21-16
Lions (+5.5, ML +200) at Cardinals, 26-23
Packers (+3, ML +145) at Saints, 37-30

The largest favorites to cover

Colts (-11.5) vs. Jets, 36-7
Browns (-7) vs. Washington, 34-20
Patriots (-7) vs. Raiders, 36-20
Buccaneers (-6) at Broncos, 28-10
Seahawks (-5.5) vs. Cowboys, 38-31

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

If you were holding an under ticket in the Cincinnati Bengals-Philadelphia Eagles battle, congrats. If you were holding an over ticket, my condolences.

The Bengals were leading 23-16 before QB Carson Wentz desperately scrambled for the right corner of the end zone, diving for the pylon with 21 seconds left in regulation to tie the game 23-23. Over bettors everywhere likely said bad words. I, personally, was holding a Bengals +5 ticket, so all of a sudden my smile disappeared, as a potential touchdown in overtime by Philadelphia would sink me after I'd been on the correct side most of the day. Thankfully that scenario didn't play out.

Anyway, neither team did much of anything in the overtime session, never really threatening to score. The Eagles did drive down the field late, and PK Jake Elliott was about to trot out for the 59-yard field goal to win it. However, a false start penalty caused the Eagles to back it up five yards and head coach Doug Pederson elected to punt the ball away and accept the tie.

Oddly enough, these teams who meet every four years have played to a tie in two of the previous four meetings. Remember when Donovan McNabb didn't know that overtime ended in a tie? That was a game on Nov. 16, 2008 in Cincinnati.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week -- Part 2

The Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) were leading 26-10 heading to the fourth quarter over the Chicago Bears. It looked like Atlanta was going to avenge last week's disgusting collapse on the road against the Dallas Cowboys when they blew a 39-24 lead to fall 40-39. The Week 3 Falcons told the Week 2 Falcons, hold my beer. They allowed 20 unanswered points in the fourth quarter on their home field, becoming the first team in NFL history to lose consecutive games when leading by 15 or more points in the final quarter. If you plan to bet the Falcons in the future, make sure to play the opponent on the second-half or live betting in the fourth quarter.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board was in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Denver Broncos (42.5) game, one which saw future Hall of Fame QB Tom Brady squaring off against backup QB Jeff Driskel, with QB Drew Lock sidelined due to injury. The game looked like it was going to be a slam-dunk over, as the Bucs led 23-10 at halftime. Over bettors rejoiced. Then we saw a total of five points in the second half, including a scoreless fourth quarter. Ouch.

The second-lowest total (43.5) was in both the San Francisco 49ers-New York Giants game and the battle between the Carolina Panthers-Los Angeles Chargers. The 49ers led the Giants 29-9 late in the fourth quarter before RB Jeff Wilson Jr. punched one in from two yards out to push the total just over, 36-9.

The Panthers surprised the Chargers in a field-goal fest. The Panthers settled for a total of five field goals, including four on trips to the red zone. The game featured just three touchdowns, and only one team posted a double-digit point total (Panthers, 12) in a single quarter.

The highest total on the board Sunday didn't disappoint. The Dallas Cowboys and Seattle Seahawks (57) saw the line rise from 55.5 to 57 during the week. It could have gone way higher. The teams were tied 9-9 after the first quarter, and Seattle led 23-15 at halftime. The scoring continued in the second half, as the Seahawks won 38-31, hanging on to the end similar to their Week 2 SNF win. The teams combined for at least 14 points in every quarter in this one.

The first two primetime games saw the total go 1-1, with the Monday night game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens (55) pending. The Miami Dolphins routed their Sunshine State neighbors, the Jacksonville Jaguars, 31-13. The over was on pace at halftime, with a total of 28 points on the board, but a low-scoring second half send under bettors to the window with a win. The anticipated shootout between the Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints (52) lived up to the hype despite the fact both WRs Davante Adams and Michael Thomas were sidelined for their respective teams.

So far this season the over is 5-4 (55.5%) across nine primetime games. In 2019, the 'over' was just 17-31-1 (35.4%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 4

Denver Broncos at New York Jets (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Broncos slipped to 0-3 when they lost to the Bucs in Week 3. Driskel, the replacement for the injured Lock, was benched in the fourth quarter in favor of QB Brett Rypien, who was just recalled from the practice squad Saturday. Ouch. Jets QB Sam Darnold, meanwhile, had a pair of pick-sixes in a loss to Indianapolis. The offensive play in this Thursday night battle might be so bad that the opening total of 40 might be a bit high.

Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Seahawks have scored 35 or more points in each of their three victories, all over results. This will be the second of their five trips to the Eastern Time Zone this season. Seattle won 38-25 in Week 1 as a pick 'em on a total of 49.5. The Dolphins have gotten a couple of extra days to prepare for the Seahawks after topping the Jaguars at TIAA Bank Field last Thursday. That might not be the only advantage the Dolphins face, as they also have the advantage of the heat and humidity of South Florida, a 10 am PT kickoff time for the Seahawks and, of course, the high travel for Seattle.
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)

The Patriots square off with the defending champions, who have had a brutal schedule to date. The Chiefs have already faced playoff teams Houston, Baltimore and now New England in three of the first four games, and they had a difficult overtime win on the road against the Chargers in Week 2. The Patriots have a highly-anticipated game for the second time in three weeks. They came up just short in a Week 2 Sunday Night Football battle in Seattle, losing 35-30 as QB Cam Newton was stuffed at the goal line at the gun to end the game. That's how close they are to being 3-0 SU.

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The collapsing Falcons take a trip to Lambeau Field on Monday night, getting an extra day to watch the excruciating film from their loss to the Bears. There are a lot of people who feel head coach Dan Quinn could be out of a job soon after his team made NFL history with the two big blown fourth-quarter leads. The Packers are probably the absolute worst opponent for Atlanta to face in Week 4, as they lead the NFL with 40.7 points per game, hitting the over in all three of their outings. In fact, Green Bay games have seen the over hit by at least 12 points in each of the three outings.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2020, 07:33 AM

NFL betting tips for Week 4: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills have gone Over the total in all three games to open the 2020 season and travel to Las Vegas for a potential Sin City shootout in Week 4.

The great thing about NFL betting on Sundays is that win or lose, you have a brand-new set of point spreads and totals coming down the pike mere minutes after the week’s game finish.

Depending on your NFL betting strategy, you may want to attack those lines the second they hit the board. Or you may want to play it cool and wait for some line moves and get a better deal later in the week.

These are our best betting tips when it comes to the NFL Week 4 odds to bet now and bet later.

Denver Broncos (-2.5) at New York Jets: Bet Now

After the way the Broncos and Jets performed in Week 3, the Week 4 Thursday Night Football matchup is shaping up to be a game only a gambler could love – especially if you grab Denver under the field goal right now.

The 0-3 Broncos hit the board at -2.5 on the road, fresh off a bruising loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home. Denver is dinged up, missing bodies on both sides of the ball, but at least it’s not New York. Gang Green was flattened on the road by Indianapolis in Week 3 and QB Sam Darnold threw more INTs returned for touchdowns (2) than touchdowns for his actual team (1).

I wouldn’t blame anyone for passing on this primetime turd altogether, but if you like the Broncos or can’t, in clear conscience, bring yourself to bet on the Jets, grab Denver under the key number of a field goal now.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans (-1): Bet Later

The lookahead line for this matchup was around Tennessee -2.5 last week, but when the actual opener hit the board Sunday night, the Titans were giving -2 for only a few minutes before getting slimmed to 1-point home chalk.

The Steelers are coming off an impressive performance against Houston to improve to 3-0 SU on the year. And while Tennessee is also 3-0 SU to start 2020, its been far less dominant in those wins and is 0-3 ATS with those three games decided by a combined six points.

The Titans could be missing Pro Bowl LT Taylor Lewan for Week 4, facing a Pittsburgh pass rush that leads the league with 15 sacks. But if you’re putting your money on the Music City, wait it out and see if this sucker jumps the fence with action coming in on the Steelers. You could get an extra point or two on the home side.

Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders (Over 49.5): Bet Now

The Bills’ offensive transformation continues to post points, with Buffalo edging the L.A. Rams with 35 points at home in Week 3. Josh Allen and the Bills passing game are tops in all the land and have helped Buffalo blow through all three totals so far this season.

Week 4 presents a taller task, with the total for the team’s trip to Sin City sitting just below 50 points. That’s not going to last long, given the state of the Raiders defense but also how well the Vegas offense performed in its first game in Allegiant Stadium.

The Raiders scored 34 points in that Monday Night Football win over the New Orleans Saints and scored 34 points in their opening game against the Carolina Panthers. The Week 3 result, a 36-20 loss at New England, had a lot to do with the Patriots dominating the football (34:39 TOP) and not giving Las Vegas much time to do anything on offense (as well as some injuries to WR that you should keep an eye on). Even so, the final score still went Over and makes the Silver and Black 3-0 Over/Under on the year.

If you’re banking on a big-time shootout in the Nevada desert, get the Over now.

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (Under 51.5): Bet Later

The total for this Week 4 game is a bit puzzling, considering the makeup of the Panthers playbook. Carolina, which will still be without star RB Christian McCaffrey this Sunday, is involved in a game with a total at 51.5 points – and it climbed to 51.5 after opening at 51.

The Panthers are far from an explosive team under Teddy Bridgewater and managed to post just 21 points in Week 3’s win over the Los Angeles Chargers, despite the Bolts coughing the ball up four times (three fumbles, one INT).

Now, the other side of this coin, the Arizona Cardinals, will likely do the lion’s share of the scoring in this one. But Arizona hasn’t really blown the doors off opponents either and the defense has been more impressive than the offense, checking opponents to only 20.3 points per game and staying Under in all three games so far.

Like I said, the initial move was to the Over, so wait it out and see if this gets to the key number of 52 before pouncing on the Under.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2020, 07:51 AM

NFL Week 4 Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson

The San Francisco 49ers lost backup TE Jordan Reed last Sunday, but they might get starting TE George Kittle back for Week 4 against the Philadelphia Eagles.

NFL Week 3 is in the rearview mirror, NFL Week 4 odds are on the board, and several betting factors are already in play. That includes the typical injury news, but also the potential for key players to return from injuries, with the San Francisco 49ers certainly hoping that’s the case.

This week’s NFL Cheat Sheet serves as one-stop shopping for all that information and more.

Week 4 Injuries

San Francisco 49ers: Tight end Jordan Reed suffered an MCL sprain in Sunday’s road rout of the New York Giants, and he could miss six-to-eight weeks. However, fellow tight end George Kittle (knee) might return this week at home against the Philadelphia Eagles, and more importantly, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle) could return. The Niners are already up a point at The SuperBook at Westgate, from -5.5 to -6.5.

Seattle Seahawks: The status of running back Chris Carson (knee) is uncertain for Sunday’s road game against the Miami Dolphins. Seattle opened -7 at The SuperBook and dipped to -6.5 a couple times early, before sticking there on Monday.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Wideout Chris Godwin injured a hamstring in Sunday’s win at Denver, and his status is uncertain for a home tilt against the Los Angeles Chargers. But nobody is backing off the Bucs early at The SuperBook, where Tampa Bay moved from -6.5 Sunday night to -7.5 by Monday night.

Denver Broncos: The injuries keep piling up for the Broncos, with defensive tackle Jurrell Casey ruled out for the season Monday with a torn biceps. He is the sixth Denver starter to be injured in the young season, including star LB Von Miller, CB A.J. Bouye, WR Courtland Sutton and QB Drew Lock. Despite the injuries, Denver is currently a three-point favorite on the road against the New York Jets on Thursday Night Football.

Week 4 Weather

Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins: The early-week forecast calls for a 50 percent chance of rain Sunday in Miami, with modest winds of 10-15 mph. The total at The SuperBook was steady through Monday at the opener of 54.5.

Los Angeles Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: There’s a 40 percent chance of showers, along with 10-15 mph winds, for Sunday’s game. The total opened at and remained 45 through Monday at The SuperBook.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2020, 07:51 AM

101DENVER -102 NY JETS
NY JETS are 47-74 ATS (-34.4 Units) after a road loss since 1992.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2020, 07:51 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 4

Thursday, October 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DENVER (0 - 3) at NY JETS (0 - 3) - 10/1/2020, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2020, 07:52 AM

NFL

Week 4

Trend Report

Thursday, October 1

Denver @ NY Jets
Denver
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
Denver is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Jets's last 7 games when playing at home against Denver
NY Jets is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2020, 07:52 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 4

Thursday, October 1

Denver @ NY Jets

Game 101-102
October 1, 2020 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
128.608
NY Jets
122.191
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 6 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 2 1/2
40
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-2 1/2); Under

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2020, 07:52 AM

NFL

Week 4

Broncos (0-3) @ NJ Jets (0-3)
— 3rd-string QB Rypien gets his first NFL start here; he played in relief in LW’s loss to Tampa Bay (8-9 for 53 yards, one INT).
— Denver has been outscored 47-20 in first half; they’ve scored only 3.78 points/red zone drive (34 points/9 drives).
— Broncos are 3-6 ATS in last nine games as a road favorite.
— AFC West teams are 6-3-1 ATS outside their division.

— Jets lost their first three games, allowing 31.3 ppg.
— Jets have been outscored 59-13 in first half.
— Gang Green has converted only 12 of 39 third down plays.
— Jets are 4-6-1 ATS in last 11 games as a home underdog.
— AFC East teams are 1-3 ATS as a non-divisional underdog.

— Denver won five of last seven series games.
— Broncos won three of last five visits here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2020, 07:53 AM

Hot & Not Report - Week 4
Matt Blunt

Last week's trends that were outlined provided mixed results, as those teams on the 'Hot' side of the equation went 2-4 ATS in the end, but the ATS results in the Dallas, Houston, and Tennessee games could have been a lot different that would have helped out that Week 3 trend further.

Fading the 2-0 ATS teams on the road ended up going 2-1 ATS, but it got the benefit of being on the right side of that late call in the Buffalo Bills game that saw the home team leave the building with the SU and ATS victory over the Los Angeles Rams.

Those are lines of thought that should be kept in mind for next season though, as the 2-0 and 0-2 angles will be brought up once again.

This week's piece looks to build upon that from both the immediate future this week, and the futures market down the road.

Who's Hot

NFL teams that are 0-3 ATS entering Week 4 are 6-1 SU as favorites (5-1 SU as home favorites) the past five years.

Thanks to how well backing those 0-2 ATS teams in Week 3 of the season has worked the past few years, we don't always get many 0-3 ATS teams coming into Week 4.

But this year we've got five of them, and four of the five are suiting up at home this week.

Who do you Follow?

Titans
Eagles
Jets
Texans
Cowboys

Now that Week 4 outright run by 0-3 teams does omit the Chargers victory in Miami a season ago given that both sides were 0-3 ATS that day and someone had to win, but that's still quite the record for these teams that haven't come close to market expectation so to speak.

I mean, we do have the anomaly of Tennessee being 3-0 SU and 0-3 ATS which is something that I'll touch on later, but being 0-3 ATS generally means your team is sitting with a losing record after three weeks and desperately needs the win to keep their season alive.

A 3-3-1 ATS record in those seven games makes laying the points a little trickier – especially if there are some of those nasty hooks around, but this 6-1 SU mark for favorites that have yet to cover a point spread begs the question;

How attractive does a Houston ML – Dallas ML parlay look to you this week?

Obviously a parlay isn't needed in the end, but with the Cowboys laying -4.5 at home vs Cleveland, and Houston laying -4 at home vs Minnesota, they are the only two 0-3 ATS teams that come into Week 3 as favorites.

Underdogs in this role in Week 4 are 6-2 ATS over that same five-year span with four outright winners in those games, so be on the look out for the Jets (+2) on TNF, Tennessee (+3) at home vs Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia +7 visiting San Francisco as well.

Who's Not

No NFL team that has started a year 0-3 ATS has gone on to make the Super Bowl that season the past five years.

It was in this piece after Week 1 that I brought up the idea about drastically eliminating nearly half of the Super Bowl futures market based on those teams starting 0-1 SU. Only eight of 36 had done it, and half were New England where you knew they still had a division title locked up and at least one home playoff game.

Well, you can trim down that futures list even further if you want with these 0-3 ATS teams, as none of them have gone on to make the Super Bowl that season.

Again, not too surprising given that most 0-3 ATS teams are going to likely be 1-2 SU at best more often than not, but this year we do have the Tennessee Titans as the lone team to be 1-0 SU after Week 1 and 0-3 ATS after three weeks, so sorry Titans fans, might be time to rip up those Super Bowl futures. I wouldn't whole heartedly buy into that, but three wins by a grand total of six points is really hard to do. Kicking issues made that Week 1 score closer then it needed to be, but with the Titans now the first NFL team dealing with a virus issue, who knows how derailed their season could get here.

Obviously no need to actually rip any futures ticket up yet, but I wouldn't be going to invest in the Titans right now.

This no Super Bowl trips for 0-3 ATS teams does bring another layer to the interesting dilemma in the NFC East between the Cowboys and Eagles. At least on one side of the ball there are huge concerns for both teams, and yet, with what Washington and the Giants look like this year, it's still highly likely that one of the Cowboys or Eagles ends up on that New England path of starting out 0-1 SU and trying to make a Super Bowl.

But the Pats never started out a season 0-3 ATS in any of the seasons starting with the 2014-15 season that saw them make a Super Bowl, a year they did start out 0-1 SU and win it all.

Right now, Dallas is sitting in the +1800 range to win it all right now with Philly further back around +5000. Those are two tickets I think you really want no part of right now as Dallas has to find a defense, and Philly's got to find or fix numerous things on offense.

Both sides may end up bringing a bit more hope after this week if the Week 4 history of 0-3 ATS teams winning outright being on a 10-5 SU run continues for them specifically, but outside of being the side to outlast whatever brand of football the NFC East ends up being this year, it may actually be time to rip up other futures on these two squads.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2020, 07:53 AM

Tech Trends - Week 4
Bruce Marshall

Week 4 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday, Oct. 1 and we've identified betting trends and angles for all 16 matchups. We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Thursday, Oct. 1

DENVER at NY JETS

Broncos on 20-8 “under” run since mid 2018 (11-8 “under” for Fangio).
Denver also 5-2 last 7 vs. points away.
Jets 0-3 SU and vs. line in 2020.

Tech Edge: “Under” and Broncos, based on extended “totals” and team trends.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-01-2020, 04:57 AM

Al Cimaglia: Hoosier Park Pick 4 Analysis

October 1, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
There is a 14-race card set to roll at Hoosier Park this evening. The 0.50 Pick 4 starts in Race 3 and it has a $10,000 guaranteed pool. That sequence will be my focus.

On Wednesday, the driver with the hottest hands was Trace Tetrick with four trips to the winner's circle. All 14 races were won by different conditioners.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 3

5-Keystone Magneto (5-1)-Is only 1-7 here but has been in the mix and its only win came at this class. Should offer a square price but has been off since 9/12.
7-Sadies Art (5/2)-Another who has been idle since 9/12 but this 10-year-old comes off 2 straight wins at this class. Tough to leave out but might be over bet and this post could pose a challenge.
8-McLegend (7/2)-Beat $6500 claimers in last and raced the back half in 56.1. Has 5 wins in 19 starts this year and is 7 for 47 at HoP. Post should help the price and if the pace is honest this gelding can grind out another win.

Race 4

3-Bluebird Love (3-1)-Qualified well and had been facing better but broke on 9/17 in 1st start off the bench. This is not a deep crew so should be a player if minds manners.
5-Mcair Guitar (12-1)-Returns to HoP and fits well with this group of fillies. Has only 1 win in 13 tries this year but has hit the board 6 times in 11 starts with 3 wins. Seems to be well worth a swing at this price.
6-Always Soggy (5/2)-Was bet down to even money on 9/17 but raced a dud. Tetrick tried to leave and got after her but there wasn't a good response. Then came 1st over but couldn't catch the leader and faded badly. Will toss last and will use at what should be a better price.

Race 5

1-Bellacache (4-1)-Should enjoy starting from the rail and fits well with this group. Has been just missing and is in a spot now to be on top at the head of the stretch or in position to roll by.
2-Delight Kate (10-1)-Raced well in 1st HoP start last week. Loses Widger to #4 but De Long can get sucked around and surprise at a big price.
9-Miss Fire (5-1)-Was bet down last time but faded late. The post makes the price and this mare starts slowly anyway. Needs a trip but with good cover can sweep by down the lane.

Race 6

1-Rising To The Top (6-1)-Race wide from the 1st call into a .54 opening half. The trip took its toll but lost the race by <2 lengths. Wilfong should have the 7-year-old in play and with a smooth journey can offer a fair price.
5-Venom (3-1)-Has been in the money in 12 of 15 starts with 5 wins and from this post should be in the mix from start to finish. Winner in 8 of 14 starts at Hoosier and the Stewart barn has been batting 25% over the last 30 days.

0.50 Pick 4

5,7,8/3,5,6/1,2,9/1,5
Total Bet=$27

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-01-2020, 05:34 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Belmont Park - Race #2

#4 Blunt Force	Price player has a stalking gear in a race with plenty of speed, and Metivier looks like he made a smart claim out of the 12.5k win last time; call right back.
#5 Cover Photo	The chalk drew a nice attack post and hits hard, but there's other speed here, so pressing early and lasting late won't be easy, at false odds too; second-best.
#3 Tied Up	Heavy hitter would be tough off the two Sar wins but went to FL and bombed at 2-1 last time, and she'll be pressed the every step of the way; tread lightly here.
Race Summary	The price and race flow will both be right with the 4, who isn't far behind the top-2 favorites on paper and will be tracking them early, so play her to win and place, and especially in the early Pk5, and to kick off the early Pk4 as well, since a win over both the 3 and 5 would knock a lot of tickets out.

Belmont Park - Race #4

#2 The J Y	Belmont lover (8-4-0-1) will like the class relief, should be just off what looks like a slow pace, and will offer a hint of value as well; look out.
#8 Graded On a Curve	Stiff ML favorite will be bet off the board for Brown, though he isn't that far ahead of these on paper, and drew wide too; backwheel time.
#3 Rapt	Stretch runner beat the pick two -back and will roll late, but at 3-1 he's tough to trust, since he rarely gets there first; runs out of room, again.
Race Summary	The 2 has a lot of appeal, especially in the $10 range, and with a prospective race flow edge too, so play him in all the slots, and especially in the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, as budget players will be singling the 8, who no doubt hits hard, but will be vastly overbet, while the pick has a ton of risk-reward attached.

Belmont Park - Race #8

#6 Stimulus Check	Stalker was bet like a good thing and won like a good thing on debut, and though she beat nothing, she did it the right way and will love the pace here; can double up.
#4 No Mo' Spending	Pace presser did well to draw outside the chalk's speed, and she'll get first run on the pick too, but that final furlong could be her undoing; making her prove it on top.
#2 Irish Constitution	ML favorite will love the G1 drop, and her dueling and fast debut wins this, but with speed to her outside, pulling that trip and winning won't be as easy; playing against.
Race Summary	PAce makes the race and it looks looks heated here, and that will really hurt the 2 and 4, while helping the 6, so play her aggressively to win and place, and get some additional value by keying her in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since she looks primed off the debut win, with a potentially dream race flow too.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-01-2020, 05:34 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Pimlico - Race #2

#2 Plamen	Worth a little look if trying to beat the chalk, as he showed a bit of pace before settling for second behind a runaway winner, and he's bred to go long for a capable team.
#5 Jimmy P	Finished well in the debut going long at Saratoga, and he has a big claim on this one at what is sure to be a short price.
#9 Excursion	The 'other' Motion, he'll add blinkers while stretching to two turns on the turf after the even sort of debut effort at Saratoga.
Race Summary	Plamen is bred to appreciate the added ground, and his early speed should give him a jump on some of the other obvious threats.

Pimlico - Race #6

#2 Texas Wedge	Has run big races against better than he's going to find here, and he was a nice winner the last time he raced outside of graded company.
#10 Francatelli	Will have some other speed to deal with, but this guy is fast and loves the turf. He draws well to avoid trouble at the break and can have a go for it from the bell.
#6 Completed Pass	His turf sprint form stacks up well with these, but he's facing some better runners than he's used to seeing and may find this group a bit too deep.
Race Summary	Texas Wedge has faced better than this, and he has been a reliable type who figures to show up with another solid run this afternoon.

Pimlico - Race #9

#9 Yaupon	Won't be any price here, but this guy really should dust this group. He has turned in three really good efforts including a couple of freakishly good Saratoga tries of late.
#3 Captain Bombastic	Might be the right price player to try to get in the mix with the heavy chalk on top, as he's actually pretty reliable and can get a decent trip from close range. Underneath only.
#6 Double Crown	Finishing type might be along late for a piece of this after a handful of pretty good efforts going short at Gulfstream.
Race Summary	Yaupon looks like a star in the making, and he'll drop in class off the easy win last time out. He's the clear one to beat, and I'll try to get Captain Bombastic in the mix with him.