Friday 10/2/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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703MIAMI -704 LA LAKERS
LA LAKERS are 42-25 ATS (14.5 Units) in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game in the last 3 seasons.

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NBA
Dunkel

Friday, October 2

Miami @ LA Lakers

Game 703-704
October 2, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
124.750
LA Lakers
126.632
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Lakers
by 2
213
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Lakers
by 7 1/2
216
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+7 1/2); Under

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NBA
Long Sheet

Friday, October 2

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MIAMI (56 - 33) vs. LA LAKERS (65 - 22) - 10/2/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in road games in non-conference games this season.
LA LAKERS are 40-32 ATS (+4.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
MIAMI is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all playoff games this season.
MIAMI is 47-31 ATS (+12.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 19-36 ATS (-20.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 4-3 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 6-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA

Friday, October 2

Trend Report

Miami @ LA Lakers
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Miami's last 11 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing LA Lakers
LA Lakers
LA Lakers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
LA Lakers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami

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Game 2 Odds: Heat vs. Lakers
Michael Crosson

Now just three wins away from securing his first ever championship ring, Anthony Davis and the Los Angeles Lakers will square off for Game 2 of the NBA Finals against Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat at the HP Field House in Disney’s Wide World of Sports complex in Orlando.

Betting Resources

Matchup: NBA Finals Game 2
Series: Lakers lead 1-0
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Friday, Oct. 2, 2020
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: ABC

The Lakers blasted the Heat 116-98 in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, dominating the game in wire-to-wire fashion. (AP)

Line Movements

Following their 116-98 rout of Eric Spoelstra’s team in Game 1, the Lakers are getting a slight bump on the spread heading into the second contest of this series – setting the line for Friday night’s tilt at Los Angeles -7.5.

‘Under’ bettors were the victors in the first game of these NBA Finals as Miami and Los Angeles combined for just 214 points on Wednesday night. The ‘over-under’ for Game 2 sits in the same ballpark as Game 1’s final total – OU 216.

Spread: Los Angeles -8
Money-Line: Los Angeles -360 Miami +285
Total: 216
Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -1200, Miami +750

Game 1 Recap

The Heat jumped out to an early lead in the opening stanza of Wednesday night’s contest, but that was short lived as the Lakers were able to secure a 31-28 lead before the final horn of the period, and never looked back.

The first game of these Finals was pretty much over at halftime, as the Lakers set a franchise record for most 3-point field goals made in the first half of a post-season contest by drilling 11 longballs in the opening two stanzas of Wednesday’s matchup, and gained a 65-48 lead at the break.

Miami started the game sitting back in a 2-3 zone similarly to how they prepared for Boston, daring Los Angeles to beat them from deep, but Frank Vogel’s team executed a drive-and-kick game plan flawlessly in Game 1 as his team scored a combined 70 points on Wednesday night from strictly 3-point land and the foul line.

Bam Adebayo was expected to give Davis some trouble down low on the defensive side of the ball, but that was far from the case in Game 1, as Bam exited the game with a neck injury, leaving Davis to dominate the contest with 34 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists, and 3 blocks over 38 minutes in the Lakers’ win.

Game 1 Betting Results

Outcome: Lakers 116 Heat 98

After watching the Heat jump out to a 28-18 first quarter lead on the Lakers with three minutes remaining, Los Angeles closed on a 13-0 run and that effort not only helped the "Purple and Gold" carry the momentum into the final three quarters.

The Lakers covered for bettors in the first quarter, first-half and the game, plus they picked up a second-half ticket as a short 'dog too. The Heat's inabilty to score in the second and third quarters (39 combined points) hurt bettors who took the 'over' in the first-half and the second-half too.

Game: Lakers Win, Lakers Cover (-4.5), Under 217.5
First Quarter: Lakers Win (31-28), Lakers Cover (-2), Over 56
First-Half: Lakers Win (63-48), Lakers Cover (-3), Under 111.5
Second-Half: Lakers Win (51-50), Lakers Cover (+2.5), Under 105.5

Miami Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 15-9 SU, 15-9 ATS, 12-11-1 O/U
Playoffs: 12-4 SU, 12-4 ATS, 8-8 O/U

Miami got blown out in the first game of this series, but if you have paid attention to the Heat this season, then you know this is one of the most resilient bunches in the NBA and they are going to come back re-energized, with a brand new scheme to attack the Lakers with on Friday night.

The Heat will likely be without Adebayo in this game, so even if the zone concept worked in Game 1, they would likely have to switch up their defensive strategy after losing the heartbeat of their defense.

Although his team did not show up, Jimmy Buckets was still great for the Heat on Wednesday night – Butler going for 23 points and 5 assists on 61% shooting for the game. He may need to take matters into his own hands in Game 2 considering the names listed on Friday’s injury report if Miami wants a chance at evening up this series.

Los Angeles Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 16-8 SU, 11-12-1 ATS, 11-13 O/U
Playoffs: 13-3 SU, 10-5-1 ATS, 7-9 O/U

Following Los Angeles’ blowout victory in Game 1 of these NBA Finals, the oddsmakers have shifted the Lakers from -380 favorites, to -1200 favorites heading into the second game of this series.

The Lakers are typically streaky from deep and they still were in this contest, but it was plenty to knock off the Heat in this game once they became ravaged by injury in the early goings of this one.

LeBron James nearly recorded another triple-double to open this year’s Finals by tallying 25 points, 13 rebounds, and 9 assists across 36 minutes in Game 1.

Los Angeles is now 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games and will look to keep that pace going with another win on Friday night.

Key Injuries

Miami

PG Goran Dragic: Foot - Doubtful
PF Bam Adebayo: Shoulder - Doubtful
PF Jimmy Butler: Ankle - Probable

Los Angeles

None

Along with Adebayo’s potential absence, Goran Dragic is listed as a game time decision as well with torn plantar fascia in his last foot. The diagnosis does not necessarily rule him 'out' for Game 2, but the injury commonly gives players discomfort on the court and is something to take note of if the guard suits up on Friday night.

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MLB public betting, line movement for October 2
Patrick Everson

Starter Sixto Sanchez and the Marlins look to finish off the Cubs in Friday's Game 2 of the best-of-3 wild-card series. However, Chicago has Yu Darvish on the hill and is a -200 favorite at FanDuel.

MLB betting odds are up for Friday’s wild-card playoffs schedule, with only two games after three more teams advanced to the divisional round with Thursday victories. The Chicago Cubs extended their season by at least a day after Game 2 was postponed, so they’ll again look to avoid elimination against the Miami Marlins.

FanDuel Sportsbook provided insights on MLB opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Friday’s games.

MLB line movement

Chicago hopes an extra day proves good for Yu Darvish, who is 8-3 with a 2.01 ERA heading into this must-win situation. The Cubs, dealt a 5-1 Game 1 loss on Wednesday, went up as -200 favorites in Game 2 at FanDuel, with Miami +174 for a 2:08 p.m. ET first pitch. There was no line movement through Thursday night.

The San Diego Padres had a great regular season, but it looked like the postseason was going to be a short one. San Diego lost Game 1 to the St. Louis Cardinals 7-4, then trailed 6-2 in the sixth inning of Game 2 Thursday. But the Padres’ offense caught fire en route to an 11-9 win to force Friday’s Game 3, at 10:08 p.m. ET.

With starters not set, most sportsbooks didn’t post Game 3 until Friday morning, so check back.

MLB public betting

The Cubs are the more public team by a mile, but early betting splits at FanDuel showed two-way action, with 55 percent of bets on the Marlins and money dead even through Thursday night.

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MLB

Friday, October 2

Best-of-3 series

National League
Miami (1-0) @ Chicago
Rookie Sanchez is 3-2, 3.46 in his first seven MLB starts.
— Marlins are 3-4 in his starts, 2-1 on the road.
— Under is 5-2 in his starts.
— He’s never faced Chicago; this is his first playoff appearance.

— Miami is 9-8 in its last 17 games, winning four of last five.
— Marlins are in playoffs for first time since 2003.
— Miami is 21-14 on the road (11-15 at home).
— Over is 8-5 in their last thirteen games.

Darvish is 0-2, 4.74 in his last three starts; he is 5-3, 2.73 in nine home starts.
— Cubs are 8-3 in his starts, 6-3 at home.
— Under is 5-1 in his last six starts.
— Darvish is 2-4, 5.81 in six playoff starts.
— He is 2-1, 6.06 in five career starts vs Miami.

— Chicago had only four hits in yesterday’s 5-1 loss.
— Cubs lost seven of their last ten games overall.
— Chicago is 19-15 at home this season.
— Cubs are in playoffs for fifth time in six years; they won World Series in 2016.
— Under is 8-4 in their last 12 games.

St Louis @ San Diego (series 1-1)
Flaherty is 2-2, 7.11 in his last four starts.
— St Louis is 5-4 in his starts, 2-2 on the road.
— Over is 5-4 in his starts this year.
— Flaherty is 1-0, 1.10 in three starts vs San Diego.
— He is 1-1, 4.24 in three career playoff starts.

— Cardinals are 9-5 in their last 14 games.
— St Louis is in playoffs for 8th time in 12 years, 2nd time in last five.
— Cardinals are 17-16 on the road this season.
— Under is 7-4 in their last 11 games.

Sounds like a bullpen game for the Padres.

— San Diego is 14-7 in their last 21 games.
— Padres are in playoffs for first time since 2006.
— San Diego is 28-13 vs right-handed starters.
— Over is 5-0 in their last five games.

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MLB

Friday, October 2

Trend Report

Miami @ Chi Cubs
Miami
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Miami
Chi Cubs is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Miami

St. Louis @ San Diego
St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games on the road
St. Louis is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games
San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

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MLB
Dunkel

Friday, October 2

Miami @ Chicago Cubs

Game 971-972
October 2, 2020 @ 2:08 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
(Sanchez) 15.137
Chicago Cubs
(Darvish) 16.547
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago Cubs
by 1 1/2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago Cubs
-200
7
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago Cubs
(-200); Under

St. Louis @ San Diego

Game 977-978
October 2, 2020 @ 7:08 pm

Dunkel Rating:
St. Louis
(Flaherty) 15.015
San Diego
(TBD) 16.597
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 1 1/2
12
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
N/A

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MLB
Long Sheet

Friday, October 2

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MIAMI (32 - 29) at CHICAGO CUBS (34 - 27) - 2:08 PM
SIXTO SANCHEZ (R) vs. YU DARVISH (R)
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 32-29 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MIAMI is 17-14 (+13.8 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
MIAMI is 25-17 (+16.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1908-1937 (-279.9 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1025-899 (-151.9 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 18-28 (-22.2 Units) against the money line in home games in October games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 219-239 (-54.8 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 959-949 (-170.0 Units) against the money line in day games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1420-1448 (-214.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 (+1.6 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

SIXTO SANCHEZ vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
No recent starts.

YU DARVISH vs. MIAMI since 1997
DARVISH is 2-1 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 6.07 and a WHIP of 1.575.
His team's record is 4-1 (+1.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-2. (+1.0 units)

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ST LOUIS (31 - 29) at SAN DIEGO (38 - 24) - 7:08 PM
JACK FLAHERTY (R) vs. ADRIAN MOREJON (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 1-1 (+0.5 Units) against SAN DIEGO this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)

JACK FLAHERTY vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
FLAHERTY is 1-0 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 1.10 and a WHIP of 1.164.
His team's record is 2-1 (+0.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-2. (-1.0 units)

ADRIAN MOREJON vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
No recent starts.

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Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Tennessee -12½ over Missouri

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Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Friday October 2, 2020
10/02 06:00 PM PT / 9:00 PM ET

CF (103) LOUISIANA TECH VS (104) BYU

Take: over

Reason: No 22 BYU definitely loaded once again this year and they are eying a perfect season and maybe a playoff berth. The Cougars are led by junior QB Zach Wilson who led the Cougars to a easy win last week over Troy, 48-7. Louisiana Tech is coming off a 10-3 record last year and is unbeaten this year. Luke Anthony is at QB and he also has this offense running smooth. The big difference is in defense where BYU has allowed 10 points over the last two weeks while La Tech has allowed 68. La Tech has covered their last four games and they get 24 1/2 points here today from BYU. Anthony has thrown for 463 yards and eight TD's so far this year. This should be one heck of an offensive show on Friday. Your free play is on the OVER.

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Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR FRIDAY: CAMPBELL +33 over Wake Forest

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Totals4U

Friday's Free Selection: Seattle Storm/Las Vegas Aces over 164

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Roz Wins

Roz's FRIDAY, OCTOBER 2, 2020
Free Pick
978. Padres (7:08 PT / 10:08 ET)