Monday 10/5/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2020, 08:08 AM

NFL odds Week 4: Opening lines, sharp money & line movement
Patrick Everson

NFL Week 3 is in the books, NFL Week 4 odds are on the betting board, and a few games are already getting action. Among the noteworthy matchups are a couple of AFC clashes: the New England Patriots visit the Kansas City Chiefs, and the Las Vegas Raiders host the unbeaten Buffalo Bills.

The SuperBook at Westgate's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 4 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting.

NFL Week 4 odds

These are the current NFL Week 4 odds, as of September 27.

Falcons at Packers odds

Opening line
Packers -6.5, Over/Under 58

Why the line moved
This line went up before Sunday night's Packers-Saints game, and per The SuperBook's standard operating procedure, the line was taken off the board once Packers-Saints kicked off.

"I don’t even have a joke about coach Dan Quinn and the Falcons here. It’s like they’re trying to choke away these games," Murray said, alluding to Atlanta blowing double-digit fourth-quarter leads in two consecutive games. "The Packers will finish off the majority of the moneyline parlays that survive next Sunday."

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2020, 08:09 AM

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The collapsing Falcons take a trip to Lambeau Field on Monday night, getting an extra day to watch the excruciating film from their loss to the Bears. There are a lot of people who feel head coach Dan Quinn could be out of a job soon after his team made NFL history with the two big blown fourth-quarter leads. The Packers are probably the absolute worst opponent for Atlanta to face in Week 4, as they lead the NFL with 40.7 points per game, hitting the over in all three of their outings. In fact, Green Bay games have seen the over hit by at least 12 points in each of the three outings.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2020, 08:10 AM

279ATLANTA -280 GREEN BAY
ATLANTA is 1-10 ATS (-10 Units) after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game in the last 3 seasons.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2020, 08:11 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 4

Monday, October 5

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (0 - 3) at GREEN BAY (3 - 0) - 10/5/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 117-85 ATS (+23.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 200-146 ATS (+39.4 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2020, 08:14 AM

NFL

Week 4

Trend Report

Monday, October 5

Atlanta @ Green Bay
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2020, 08:15 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 4

Monday, October 5

Atlanta @ Green Bay

Game 279-280
October 5, 2020 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
129.387
Green Bay
139.019
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 9 1/2
64
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 7
58
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-7); Over

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2020, 08:15 AM

NFL

Week 4

Falcons (0-3) @ Green Bay (3-0)
— Falcons are 0-3; they led 26-10 with 7:00 left last week, led 29-10 at halftime week before.
— Atlanta has been outscored 74-33 in second half of games.
— Falcons have allowed 18 plays of 20+ yards, most in the NFL.
— Atlanta is 5-3 ATS in its last eight games as a road underdog.
— NFC South teams are 3-5 ATS outside their division, 3-1 on road.

— Green Bay won its first three games, scoring 43-42-37 points.
— All three Packer games went over the total.
— Green Bay won field position all three games, by 14-8-5 yards.
— Packers covered seven of last ten games as a home favorite.
— NFC North teams are 4-2 ATS outside their division.

— Home side won last six series games.
— Average total in last five series games: 64.2.
— Falcons lost last three visits to Lambeau, by 1-6-14 points.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2020, 08:18 AM

Tech Trends - Week 4
Bruce Marshall

Week 4 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday, Oct. 1 and we've identified betting trends and angles for all 16 matchups. We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Monday, Oct. 5

ATLANTA at GREEN BAY

Falcons 8-4 vs. line since mid 2019 (1-1 in 2020), also “over” 3 in a row.
Pack “over” last five since late 2019 and 5-1 last six vs. points at Lambeau.

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-05-2020, 05:23 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Finger Lakes - Race #1

#6 Trapper Joe	Class riser walloped lesser last time but did it the right way, catches a favorite who's no great shakes, and will offer a bit of value too; call right back.
#2 Queen Roller	The chalk will like getting back to the dirt after a Tapeta 4th, and she may be loose too, but she'll be overbet with no decisive edge; trying to beat.
#4 Mom's Law	Stretch runner was up in time over weaker but she did it with a slow figure, so this leap might be a bit too much for her; using underneath, if at all.
Race Summary	You're not getting that 5-1 ML on the pick, but even 7-2 would be fair and worth a win and place bet, though her real value comes in kicking off the early Pk4, since budget players will be singling the 2, even though the pick has every right to run huge again, which would knock a lot of tickets out right off the bat.

Finger Lakes - Race #4

#3 Seaport Storm	GP invader and stiff class dropper goes into a potent Conway barn, has a big dirt figure for this group showing two-back, and should be up close to what figures a modest pace; look out.
#9 Painite	The class and favorite will be tough on her NYRA form and figures, but note that was on the turf, and her dirt run was abysmal, while the pick has proven main track form; second-best.
#8 Pam Dorth Andiano	Pace presser dueled and was a distant 2nd on debut, so this attack post works, and she should be tighter here too, so if the favorites aren't for you, she's worth a look; hardly impossible.
Race Summary	We have a new clubhouse leader for worst ML ever, as not only does the pick have the best race showing and she drops stiffly in class, but Conway is 30% with newcomers, but even 5-2 or 3-1 seems fair in a group like this, so play her to WP and place if the tote allows, though you can get some built-in value by keying her to end the early Pk5, and kick off the Pk5 as well, as she looks poised for a lifetime best, which would be too much for these.

Finger Lakes - Race #7

#4 Summer Brew	Stalker didn't fire in the Spa stakes off a big debut win, but this group will be more to her liking, and she may get set up off a speed duel too; can make amends.
#3 Irish Constitution	The chalk will be tough if she clears on the lead after just missing at Bel four days ago, but the rail isn't likely to let her get away early on; may get fried in the lane.
#1 Party At Page's	Game Spa winner will be winging early, which will be problematic with the 3 to her outside, and not really a recipe for stretch success; tough to think she can last.
Race Summary	Pace makes the race and if the 3 is in then it lokos hot and contested early, and that will really aid the 4, who can sit off and pounce, so play her aggressively to win and place, while getting some additional value by singling her in the Pk5, and late Pk4 as well, as she gets all the best of it here, provided both speeds stay in.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-05-2020, 05:24 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mountaineer - Race #1

#10 Confiscate	He was fourth at this level going long in late August, and he owns a win at this turf sprint trip in the past. Might be the right one to upset the chalk.
#2 Seanshine	Speed meets a much softer bunch than he has been facing in Minnesota, and he's the clear one to beat at a short price in the opener.
#8 Panama Prince	Has speed and an occasional rating ability, and he has plenty of room to improve in this second start off the long break while getting back to the grass.
Race Summary	Confiscate is quick enough to work out a trip from the high draw and his recent form might be good enough to give the favorite a real run of it.

Mountaineer - Race #2

#3 Orange Punch	He's not going to offer any price, but a repeat of the Colonial turf sprint try would almost surely leave the rest of these running for second.
#5 Ominous	He woke up in a big way when getting his feet on the grass for the first time in that July try, and he's the most likely to capitalize if the top choice doesn't fire.
#7 Unbridledselection	Tough to get too excited about as he makes his 11th lifetime start, but the form stacks up pretty well, and he missed by just a nose in his only career turf sprint try.
Race Summary	Orange Punch should be very tough to get past in this spot, as the two-back Colonial run came with better and would probably handle these.

Mountaineer - Race #3

#3 Start From Scratch	This feels like a spot where many of them will be going the wrong way late, and this guy may be able to flash a bit of finishing ability at a nice price.
#10 Daylight	Handled the turf just fine in the only try, and he proved a good fit with the local company when scoring on the main last out.
#7 Kitten's Man	Versatile type may be able to find a pretty good spot tracking the pace but also owns the pace to go for the front if they want the lead.
Race Summary	Start From Scratch can settle off what may be a fair set of splits, and he's sure to get overlooked on the board after a modest try last time out.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-05-2020, 05:25 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Indiana Grand - Race #3

#1 Ace Destroyer	Was a clear leader in the stretch but tired late and finished third; can be on or close to the pace along the inside and will once again be the one to catch as they turn for home.
#5 Tale of Fame	Came from five lengths back and won going away in a similar spotted; was a good $5K claim by Brown three race and has quickly paid dividends.
#6 Portobello's Hero	Very rapid and will bring his best from the outside host; can probably still around for a piece of it.
Race Summary	Ace Destroyer is always dangerous and is quick enough not to give up his ground-saving spot; can dig in vs. these.

Indiana Grand - Race #7

#7 S S Trooper	Comes in off a much-improved effort after he has badly beaten in his first three of 2020; his best races are at two turns on the turf and he can become a strong factor at the start.
#3 Cielo Azul	Goes for his third straight win and makes his first turf appearance since July; never been better and should be able to succeed on grass.
#1 Mr Hoover	Crushed state-breds on debut and then was outrun at Churchill, each race last year; has trained well for his first since November.
Race Summary	S S Trooper does his best going long on turf and can dictate how this one develops; comes in off an improved run and looks difficult to catch under these circumstances.

Indiana Grand - Race #8

#1 Well Connected	Gave way across putting down scorching fractions last time at Kentucky Downs, moves back to the dirt and can establish control. Tough to beat here.
#2 All Eyes West	Scored an impressive maiden win at Ellis last out and has races in which he's come from slightly off the lead; can develop into a quality runner.
#4 Sturgill	Ran off to an easy win last time and was claimed by Haran; a threat to get into the trifecta and superfecta.
Race Summary	Well Connected has good dirt sprints on his form and has the class to take on whatever they throw at him; good enough to prevail.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-05-2020, 05:25 AM

Al Cimaglia: Woodbine Mohawk Park Early Pick 4 Analysis

October 5, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
The headliners at Woodbine Mohawk Park are 2-year-old fillies in Sires Stakes Gold action. The 0.20 Early Pick 4 starts in Race 4 and will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a track.

Race 4

1-Bit Of Luck (8-1)-Camera shy 5-year-old has been trying hard, will look for a price and a bit of Henry magic. Last start was good in the slop amd has never won on an off track. Maybe this is picture time with a smooth trip.
2-Carsons Shadow (5/2)-This should be a good spot to post a win but this guy is difficult to figure out. But coming off a win at GrVr might be a sign of turning the corner. Using, but probably will offer no value.
5-General Joy A (3-1)-Simply put, form is bad but has been facing much better. Has won 5 times in last 37 starts but Wbsb record shows 3 wins in 10 starts. If this gelding is anywhere near top form he will beat this crew. But that type of form hasn't been seen since the beginning of August.

Race 5

2-Night Watchman (3-1)-Barn is cold but has been facing much better and now finally draws inside so there should be no excuses. Faces older foes but has been racing some really good colts and this is a spot to shine.
6-Outlaw Aceofspades (7/2)-Makes 2nd Wbsb start, 2nd start for the Cullen barn, 3rd on Lasix and now Travis is back in the bike. Raced from the back in last but did pace the second 1/2 in .54, can beat this crew with a good steer.

Race 6

4-Trix And Stones (4-1)-Slow starter beat this type on 7/28 going the last half in 55.3. Could follow the same script tonight as there are few who could push the pace early.
5-Teddys Littleangel (10-1)-This barn has been winning lately and McNair is back and he should be out and rolling. Could get on the engine or the pocket behind #6 and with the right trip might surprise at a price.
6-On The Ropes (2-1)-Drops to a very soft spot after facing Pfrd company about 5 weeks ago. Was bet and had a very good effort versus better last week in the slop. Should be a major player and will probably be bet hard.

Race 7

1-Lucky Benjii (6-1)-$75,000 Sunshine Beach colt makes debut off a gate to wire qualifier. Will respect chances and could offer a square price.
2-Wheresjim (4-1)-Jim has speed and issues but best to not overlook. Can be forwardly placed and if McNair can calm him down in the early going chances go way up.
8-PL Oliver (3-1)-Sportswriter colt stayed engaged and past a few down the lane taking advantage of a super hot pace. This is another who could take a picture if gets a good trip and this race could shape up in his favor.
9-Seize Control (7/2)-Shows some nice last quarters and could be a big factor in late going if is closer to the lead turning for home. If pace is hot this colt is another who will rolling down the lane.

0.20 Early Pick 4

1,2,5/2,6/4,5,6/1,2,8,9
Total Bet=$14.40

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-05-2020, 07:33 AM

Rk	Sports Services	Free Sports Picks
1.	NSA(The Legend)	MLB – Astros +125
2.	Gameday Network	MLB – Yankees -145
3.	VegasSI.com	MLB – Astros over 8
4.	Vegas Line Crushers	MLB – Yankees over 7
5.	Sports Action 365	MLB – Astros +125
6.	Point Spread Report	MLB – Yankees -145
7.	Lou Panelli	MLB – Astros +125
8.	Gerry “Big Cat” Andino	MLB – Yankees over 7
9.	VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club	MLB – Astros over 8
10.	William E. Stockton	MLB – Yankees -145
11.	Vincent Pioli	MLB – Astros +125
12.	Steve “Scoop” Kendall	MLB – Yankees over 7
13.	SCORE	MLB – Astros over 8
14.	East Coast Line Movers	MLB – Yankees -145
15.	Tony Campone	MLB – Astros +125
16.	Chicago Sports Group	MLB – Yankees over 7
17.	Hollywood Sportsline	MLB – Yankees -145
18.	VIP Action	MLB – Astros over 8
19.	South Beach Sports	MLB – Yankees over 7
20.	Las Vegas Sports Commission	MLB – Astros +125
21.	NY Players Club	MLB – Yankees -145
22.	Fred Callahan	MLB – Astros over 8
23.	Las Vegas Private CEO Club	MLB – Astros +125
24.	Michigan Sports	MLB – Yankees over 7
25.	National Consensus Report	MLB – Yankees -145

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-05-2020, 07:36 AM

Cappers Access

(Mon) NFL Patriots +11
(Mon) NFL Packers -7