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Carolina Panthers +1.5 at Atlanta Falcons
The Panthers defense is really coming together, and it did a great job against two offenses (Chargers, Cardinals) that have otherwise been solid in recent weeks. The Panthers offense is also outgaining the Falcons in yards per play, and with the Falcons giving up 30-plus in every game so far, I think we can reasonably say the Panthers are the better team here. Then you come to Dan Quinn, who is 20-35 ATS as a favorite in his career and appears to be playing out the string at 0-4 until a coaching change is made. Carolina, on the other hand, is a team on the rise that has a chance to be tied for first place after this game.
Cleveland Browns +1.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
I think the wrong team is favored here. That Colts defense has looked awesome, but Indy's schedule has been pretty suspect. The Browns just scored 49 on the Cowboys, and before you remind me how bad the Cowboys defense is, Dallas had actually been solid against the run heading into that game. The Browns O-line is just dominant right now, which makes me worry less about injuries at running back. Meanwhile, the Colts offense is not impressive at all, ranking 22nd in points per drive, 30th in third-down success rate and 28th in red-zone success rate. If that strong Browns D-line can get some pressure on Philip Rivers, I think this is game over, especially with the Colts ranking 32nd in yards per carry.
Seattle Seahawks -7 vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings got back on track last week, but it took playing a mess of a franchise that fired its coach/general manager after the game to do so. When the dust settled, the Vikings came away with an eight-point win thanks largely to the success of the running game. But the Seahawks rank third in yards per rush allowed and are largely beatable through the air. Maybe that means Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson will have a big day, but I can't see the Minnesota offense keeping up with Russell Wilson & Co., who get to play a Vikings defense that ranks 30th in net yards per pass attempt. The line moved 2.5 points from the lookahead toward Minnesota, but I don't see sense in that.
Arizona Cardinals -7 at New York Jets
So this line was Cardinals -8 on the lookahead, and the Jets lost their starting quarterback. So now it's ... -7? What kind of sense does that make? You can only explain it if you think the struggling Cardinals offense from last week is indicative of future performance, but Arizona knows it got too cute going horizontal instead of vertical. That shouldn't be an issue against this porous Jets secondary, and I'm expecting a big game out of the Cardinals offense. I don't expect a whole lot from Joe Flacco, even if the rest of the offense is starting to get healthy. Arizona gets right with a big win.
Los Angeles Rams -7 at Washington Redskins
I don't think Kyle Allen is going to make a huge difference to the Washington offense, especially with Dwayne Haskins coming off his best game of the year and still losing by double digits. While the Washington defense feels like it's been solid, this is a team that has given up 30-plus points in three straight. The Rams played the ugliest game possible last week and still beat a similarly awful team by eight points, so a cover is still on the table if the Rams should struggle. But don't worry about the west-to-east travel -- this is already the Rams' third 1 p.m. ET east coast game this season, and they should be 2-0 in them if not for a highly questionable pass interference call in the Bills loss. I think the Rams roll.
Should be a Deshaun feast on this pass defense now sans BoB and ready to show his meddle and GO APE all over a poor defense....it had nothing to do with HIM....
Game: (451) Carolina Panthers at (452) Atlanta Falcons Date/Time: Oct 11 2020 1:00 PM EDT Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line Play Rating: 4% Play: Total Over 53.0 (-110)
Just the easiest by the numbers total play on the early board....similar to the game from a couple Mondays ago...2 scoring offenses that need to score because the defense ain't up to snuff....and a key number we're still hitting while south of a couple more...and this should be 57 so let's get it!
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