Friday 10/9/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Keeneland

10/09/20, KEE, Race 6, 3.51 ET
10/09/20,KEE,6,1 1/16M [Turf] 1:39:00 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $70,000 (includes up to $14,300 KTDF - Kentucky TB Devt Fund). FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 121 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. (Preference To Horses That Have Not Started For Less Than $50,000 In Last 3 Starts). In the event that this race is taken off the turf it will be contested at One Mile and One-Sixteenth on the main track. (Rail at 15 feet).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	3	Dreams of Tomorrow	4/1	Geroux F	McGaughey III Claude R		64	26.56	1.56/$1
098.4995	1	Telephone Talker	3/1	Gaffalione T	Maker Michael J.	JFC	98	27.55	1.32/$1
097.8310	4	Ghostlore(b+)	15/1	Hernandez. Jr. B J	Wilkes Ian R.		64	26.56	1.56/$1
097.3034	5	Winters Back	9/2	Santana. Jr. R	Pletcher Todd A.		64	26.56	1.56/$1
097.3021	6	Trade Deadline	9/2	Castellano J	Brown Chad C.	TL	64	26.56	1.56/$1
096.7484	8	Carmichael	8/1	Bejarano R	Oliver Victoria H.	W	64	26.56	1.56/$1
095.7275	2	Capt. Maestri	12/1	Lanerie C J	Pessin Neil L.	S	64	26.56	1.56/$1
094.9872	7	Gear Jockey	4/1	Leparoux J R	Arnold. II George R.	E	64	26.56	1.56/$1
094.1668	9	Luxor	30/1	Padron-Barcenas J	Jurado Luis A.		64	26.56	1.56/$1

Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 26.67, ROI 1.43/$1
. . . .
100.0000 3 Dreams of Tomorrow
[Category]Condition
[AllTurf]NotMorningLineFavorite(notentry)
If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	1	Telephone Talker	3/1	Gaffalione T	Maker Michael J.	JFC	59	49.15	1.63/$1
099.1166	6	Trade Deadline	9/2	Castellano J	Brown Chad C.	TL	183	31.15	1.18/$1
098.9903	3	Dreams of Tomorrow	4/1	Geroux F	McGaughey III Claude R		183	31.15	1.18/$1
098.4065	4	Ghostlore(b+)	15/1	Hernandez. Jr. B J	Wilkes Ian R.	W	142	31.69	1.33/$1
094.7616	5	Winters Back	9/2	Santana. Jr. R	Pletcher Todd A.		142	31.69	1.33/$1
094.7406	8	Carmichael	8/1	Bejarano R	Oliver Victoria H.		142	31.69	1.33/$1
094.7026	2	Capt. Maestri	12/1	Lanerie C J	Pessin Neil L.	S	142	31.69	1.33/$1
091.3933	9	Luxor	30/1	Padron-Barcenas J	Jurado Luis A.		82	29.27	0.88/$1
090.9707	7	Gear Jockey	4/1	Leparoux J R	Arnold. II George R.	E	142	31.69	1.33/$1

Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 35.71, ROI 1.31/$1
. . . .
100.0000 1 Telephone Talker
[Category]Condition
[AllDirt]BestJockey

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Santa Anita Park

PURCHASE

10/09/20, SA, Race 4, 2.08 PT
10/09/20,SA,4,1M [Turf] 1:31:03 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $55,000. FOR CALIFORNIA BRED OR CALIFORNIA SIRED MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. Weight, 122 lbs. (Non-Starters For A Claiming Price Of $40,000 Or Less In Their Last Starts Preferred). (Rail at 30 feet).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	6	After Midnight	6/1	Hernandez J J	Gaines Carla	SFLC	273	40.29	1.27/$1
099.3871	9	Big Andy	5/2	Prat F	Heap Blake R.		273	40.29	1.27/$1
099.2526	4	Miss Ever Ready(b+)	3/1	Rispoli U	Koriner Brian J.		273	40.29	1.27/$1
098.1737	7	Big Stretch	6/1	Cedillo A	D'Amato Philip		273	40.29	1.27/$1
097.1463	12	Princess Sadie	8/1	Prat F	O'Neill Doug F.		273	40.29	1.27/$1
096.1156	2	Warrens Candy Girl	7/2	Van Dyke D	Lewis Craig Anthony		273	40.29	1.27/$1
095.8969	8	St Helena	10/1	Gutierrez M	Puype Mike		273	40.29	1.27/$1
095.6416	10	Stars of Bluegrass	10/1	Van Dyke D	Lerner Andrew		273	40.29	1.27/$1
093.7373	3	Renegade Princess	20/1	Maldonado E A	Eurton Peter		273	40.29	1.27/$1
093.1493	1	Sideways Suances	12/1	Baze T	Mullins Jeff	TW	287	39.02	1.25/$1
091.6525	5	Steinway(b+)	20/1	Pereira T J	Hernandez. Jr. Jose		273	40.29	1.27/$1
000.0000	11	Supernova Wildcat	1/5	No Rider Yet			107	40.19	1.29/$1

Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 27.27, ROI 1.04/$1
. . . .
100.0000 6 After Midnight
[Category]Condition
[AllTurf]*NotActualPost1
*Scratches may change this condition If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	6	After Midnight	6/1	Hernandez J J	Gaines Carla	SFLC	149	42.95	1.46/$1
097.2189	4	Miss Ever Ready(b+)	3/1	Rispoli U	Koriner Brian J.		128	27.34	1.41/$1
097.0856	7	Big Stretch	6/1	Cedillo A	D'Amato Philip	W	128	27.34	1.41/$1
096.0789	12	Princess Sadie	8/1	Prat F	O'Neill Doug F.		169	31.36	0.95/$1
095.3729	9	Big Andy	5/2	Prat F	Heap Blake R.		128	27.34	1.41/$1
095.1011	2	Warrens Candy Girl	7/2	Van Dyke D	Lewis Craig Anthony		128	27.34	1.41/$1
094.3558	10	Stars of Bluegrass	10/1	Van Dyke D	Lerner Andrew		97	42.27	1.33/$1
093.6833	8	St Helena	10/1	Gutierrez M	Puype Mike		128	27.34	1.41/$1
092.6664	3	Renegade Princess	20/1	Maldonado E A	Eurton Peter		128	27.34	1.41/$1
091.2711	1	Sideways Suances	12/1	Baze T	Mullins Jeff	T	128	27.34	1.41/$1
091.2597	5	Steinway(b+)	20/1	Pereira T J	Hernandez. Jr. Jose		128	27.34	1.41/$1
000.0000	11	Supernova Wildcat	1/5	No Rider Yet			169	31.36	0.95/$1

Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 31.25, ROI 4.66/$1
. . . .
100.0000 6 After Midnight
[Category]Condition
[AllDirt]BestFinish

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA public betting, line movement for October 9
Patrick Everson

LeBron James and the Lakers can finish off the Heat and claim the NBA championship in Game 5 on Wednesday Night. FanDuel Sportsbook opened Los Angeles -7.5 and moved to -7.

NBA betting odds are on the board and getting action for Game 5 of the NBA Finals on Friday night, which could end with a hoisting of the championship trophy as LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers look to finish off the Miami Heat.

FanDuel Sportsbook provided insights on NBA Finals opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Friday’s matchup, along with odds to win the NBA championship.

NBA line movement

The Lakers held off the Heat 102-96 in Game 4 Tuesday night to take a 3-1 lead in the best-of-seven series and move to the brink of the title. FanDuel opened Los Angeles a 7.5-point favorite for Game 5 and bounced to -7 a couple of times, including late Wednesday night.

The total opened at 216.5 and spent a few hours at 217 Wednesday before dropping to 216.

NBA public betting

Early betting splits at FanDuel indicate customers at least think the Heat will cover the number in Game 5. While ticket count is two-way, with a lean toward Miami at 54 percent, 82 percent of money was on the Heat through Wednesday night.

The total is very much seeing two-way action, with 59 percent of tickets on the Over, but money split right down the middle through Wednesday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

709MIAMI -710 LA LAKERS
MIAMI is 16-3 ATS (12.7 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.

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NBA
Dunkel

Friday, October 9

Miami @ LA Lakers

Game 709-710
October 9, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
119.767
LA Lakers
131.616
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Lakers
by 12
219
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Lakers
by 7 1/2
216 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Lakers
(-7 1/2); Over

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NBA
Long Sheet

Friday, October 9

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MIAMI (57 - 35) vs. LA LAKERS (67 - 23) - 10/9/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 49-40 ATS (+5.0 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all playoff games this season.
MIAMI is 31-21 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LA LAKERS are 13-24 ATS (-13.4 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in road games in non-conference games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 5-4 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 8-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Friday, October 9

Trend Report

Miami @ LA Lakers
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Miami's last 12 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Lakers
LA Lakers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
LA Lakers is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Miami

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Game 5 Odds: Heat vs. Lakers
Michael Crosson

The Los Angeles Lakers reigned victorious in a closely contested Game 4 NBA Finals bout in the Orlando bubble on Tuesday night, and now LeBron James finds himself just one victory over the Miami Heat away from becoming just the third player in NBA history to secure a championship ring with three different teams.

Betting Resources

Matchup: NBA Finals Game 5
Series: Lakers lead 3-1
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Friday, Oct. 9, 2020
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: ABC

LeBron James and the L.A. Lakers will look to eliminate the Miami Heat when the pair meet in Game 5 on Friday. (AP)

Line Movements

Tyler Herro broke the heart and bank of every Laker bettor with his last-second, garbage-time, 3-point bomb to secure a Miami +7.5 cover at the end of Game 4 on Tuesday night. Understandably, the oddsmakers have elected to leave the line for Friday night’s game at the same number – Los Angeles -7.

The ‘over-under’ in this series has split now 2-2 in the first four games of these NBA Finals, after combining for just 198 points in their most recent matchup. The total for Friday night’s game still sits in the same ballpark of their recent matchups – OU 216.

Spread: Los Angeles -7
Money-Line: Los Angeles -310 Miami +260
Total: 216
Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -10000, Miami +2000

Game 4 Recap

The Heat got back a key player from injury in Bam Adebayo (15 points, 7 rebounds) for Game 4, and despite losing the game, Miami finally looked like the team that locked down the Eastern Conference defensively by holding the Lakers to their lowest point total in this series so far (102).

Tuesday night was all about LeBron James yet again though, as the King led Los Angeles in scoring with 28 points, 12 rebounds, and 8 assists on 50% shooting in the victory.

The Lakers got virtually no help from the bench in Game 4, as guys not in the starting lineup for Frank Vogel’s team shot a combined 5 for 15 in the contest. But it did not make a difference as Anthony Davis went for 22 points on 50% shooting, while Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Danny Green combined for another 25 points.

Los Angeles tried to keep Miami in the game by turning the ball over 15 times and letting the Heat outshoot them 18-21 at the foul line. But Erik Spoelstra’s team just did not bring the firepower to knock off the Lakers in this one like they did in Game 3.

Lakers bettors felt confident down the stretch of Tuesday night’s contest, as LeBron and company boasted a nine-point lead with the clock winding down in Game 4. But of course, the 20-year old rookie from the University of Kentucky had to be the hero for Miami bettors, securing the backdoor cover on the final shot of the contest.

Covering the spread will not be enough for the Heat on Sunday night though, as one more Lakers victory will give them their first title since 2010.

Game 4 Betting Results

Outcome: Lakers 106 Heat 96

While Herro gave Heat backers a nice win on side wagers, the 'under' was never in doubt and it cashed across the board. The 'under' is now 3-1 in the first four games of the finals

Game: Lakers Win, Heat Cover (+7.5), Under 218.5
First Quarter: Lakers Win (27-22), Lakers Cover (-3), Under 56.5
First-Half: Lakers Win (49-47), Heat Cover (+5), Under 112.5
Second-Half: Lakers Win (53-49), Heat Cover (+4), Under 107

Miami Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 16-11 SU, 18-9 ATS, 13-11-1 O/U
Playoffs: 13-6 SU, 15-4 ATS, 9-10 O/U

Even though they lost the game, Tuesday night’s contest should have been the most encouraging contest of this series so far for Heat fans, as the Miami defense really seemed to gel with Bam back in the lineup.

The results were not necessarily encouraging for the immediate future, as Miami is currently staring down the barrel of a 3-1 deficit. But Tuesday night showed that this young, Heat core has the foundation to defend and compete with dynamic, star-filled rosters like the Lakers, when healthy.

The Heat have had their greatest success against Los Angeles when they play through Butler and let him take 20+ shots per game, which is a tough strategy against a team wielding defensive firepower like the Lakers. Miami is clearly still one piece away. But it has still been one heck of a ride in the bubble for this dark-horse Miami squad.

Los Angeles Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 18-9 SU, 11-15-1 ATS, 12-15 O/U
Playoffs: 15-4 SU, 10-8-1 ATS, 8-11 O/U

It feels obnoxious saying that AD has been a letdown in his last two NBA Finals contests for Los Angeles, averaging over 18 points per game, but that really is an underwhelming feat for the Lakers’ superstar big man.

Davis is shooting the ball fine over this stretch (50%+ in last 2 games), it just seems like the Lakers are strategizing away from the big man in this series, as AD draws Adebayo on a large percentage of his square-up opportunities.

King James currently sits as a -450 favorite to win Finals MVP after back-to-back slow performances from Davis. Looking forward to another emotional MVP speech from ‘the chosen one’ following the conclusion of this series.

Fun Fact

The last time the Lakers won a title, they knocked off Rajon Rondo and the “Big 3” Boston Celtics in 7 games back in the 2010 NBA Finals.

Ten years later, the four-time All-Star still comes off the bench for the Lakers, searching for his second title and contributing quality minutes at the guard position for a team that desperately needs it. If Los Angeles is able beat Miami one more time in this series, his second championship ring is undoubtedly well earned.)

Key Injuries

Los Angeles

None

Miami

PG Goran Dragic: Foot - Doubtful

Dragic suffered a fascia tear in his foot during Game 1 of these NBA Finals, and has not been able to get back on the floor since. Prior to Game 4, Dragic tried to warm-up with his team and go through a pre-game routine, but it was evident he was still dealing with some serious discomfort in his left foot.

The veteran point-guard is listed as 'doubtful' for Friday night’s tilt. I do not expect him to suit up for the remainder of this series – but you never know. Goran is a tough guy.

Kendrick Nunn is slated to fill Miami’s gap in the rotation for Game 5. Surprisingly, this move did not leave too big of a scar on the Heat’s offensive production during the first few meetings of Dragic’s absence, but they are now beginning to feel the loss of their point-guard as 2020 Rookie of the Year Runner-up scored just six points on 2 of 11 field goal attempts on Tuesday night.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Dunkel

Friday, October 9

NY Yankees @ Tampa Bay

Game 933-934
October 9, 2020 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Yankees
(Cole) 17.577
Tampa Bay
(Glasnow) 16.570
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Yankees
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Yankees
-155
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Yankees
(-155); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Friday, October 9

Best-of-5 series

New York vs Tampa Bay (2-2) (@ San Diego)
Cole is 5-0, 1.85 in his last five starts; he is pitching on 3 days’ rest here.
— New York is 10-4 in his starts, 4-2 on the road.
— His last four starts all went over; NY scored 45 runs in those games.
— He is 8-4, 2.75 in 12 postseason starts.
— Cole is 1-3, 4.13 in eight career starts vs Tampa Bay.

— New York scored 45 runs in their first six playoff games.
— New York is in the playoffs for 4th year in a row.
— New York is 15-20 on the road this season.
— Over is 10-4 in their last 14 games.

They say Glasnow is starting, but on two days’ rest; he threw 93 pitches Tuesday- chances are this is a bullpen game.
— Rays won last ten times Glasnow started.
— Glasnow gave up four runs in five IP (93 PT) vs New York Tuesday.
— Don’t think rest of his stats are relevant; hard to believe they’d risk his health by throwing him for very long on two days’ rest.

— Tampa Bay won eight of its last ten games overall.
— Rays are in playoffs for second year in a row.
— Tampa Bay is 22-13 away from home this season.
— Under is 9-6 in their last 15 games.

— Tampa Bay won 10 of 14 games with New York this season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Friday, October 9

Trend Report

NY Yankees @ Tampa Bay
NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 8 of NY Yankees's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 6 games
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Tampa Bay is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Long Sheet

Friday, October 9

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY YANKEES (37 - 29) vs. TAMPA BAY (44 - 22) - 7:10 PM
GERRIT COLE (R) vs. TYLER GLASNOW (R)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 10-14 (-10.1 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents this season.
NY YANKEES are 44-44 (-14.7 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 44-22 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 31-15 (+9.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
TAMPA BAY is 34-13 (+17.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
TAMPA BAY is 17-6 (+11.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
GLASNOW is 21-6 (+14.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 10-4 (+7.7 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
8 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.8 Units)

GERRIT COLE vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
COLE is 3-3 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.25 and a WHIP of 1.115.
His team's record is 6-4 (-0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-4. (+0.6 units)

TYLER GLASNOW vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
GLASNOW is 2-2 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 4.29 and a WHIP of 1.295.
His team's record is 4-2 (+2.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-1. (+2.9 units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

933NY YANKEES -934 TAMPA BAY
NY YANKEES are 8-16 SU (-11.8 Units) in road games vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in the current season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Wynn

Free Pick: NY Yankees/Tampa Bay Under 7 Runs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Friday October 9, 2020

10/09 06:00 PM PT / 9:00 PM ET

NBA (709) MIAMI HEAT VS (710) LOS ANGELES LAKERS

Take: OVER the TOTAL

Reason: The Lakers are one game away from the NBA Championship. However, Jimmy Butler and the rest of the Heat will make it as difficult as possible for that to happen, at least today. Butler has basically taken this team on his shoulders with injuries to center Bam Adebayo and point guard Goran Dragic. Abedayo likely will play today while Dragic is doubtful with a foot injury. The Heat covered game four, albeit within the last minute of the game. I expect the Heat to stay within striking distance of the line here tonight and do what they did in game four. Furthermore, I like this game to go over the total. Your free play is on the OVER.