Tuesday 10/20/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Platinum Plays

Your Free Pick: the LA Dodgers -200 To Win The World Series

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Kenny Towers

Your Free Pick for Tuesday: Tampa Bay/LA Dodgers UNDER 8

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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

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Finger Lakes - Race #1

#1 Hamptons Holiday	Stretch runner hasn't been out since November, so the layoff is a concern, but the works whisper ready and he catches a group loaded with speed; call to come back running.
#4 Deficit Hawk	Class riser was just up in time to beat lesser and will get first run on the pick, but the price here will be short, and his margin for error is on the slim side; trying to beat on top.
#6 Frosty the Dragon	Fellow riser blitzed a group when last seen in August and a repeat would give him a chance here, though he's a bit light on figures and never doubles up on his wins; tread lightly.
Race Summary	That 10-1 ML seems like plenty of risk-reward on the pick, who catches a group that he can play with, and one that should set him up with all the speed signed on too, so play him in all the slots, and especially to kick off thePk5 as well, since a win would add plenty of value right off the bat.

Finger Lakes - Race #4

#4 Wrongsideofhistory	MSW dropper has been middling of late while in with tons better, now catches a weak group, even for this level, and goes for potent connections; imposing.
#6 High Spirited	Lightly raced miss woke up in the much when 3rd last time, and while she hasn't run well on dry land, there will be pace here to set her up; logical EX partner.
#7 Pippi	Pace presser didn't fire in the mud against better but the 2nd two-back would make her tough here, though you wonder if she can get back to it; not sold on.
Race Summary	You won't get rich on the 4 but that 9-5 ML would be enough to make an aggressive win and place bet, though her real value comes in end the early Pk4 and kick off the Pk5 as well, as you can single her, which will allow for more leverage in the deeper surrounding legs, as she looks to have this meek field over a barrel.

Finger Lakes - Race #6

#1 Lake Rudolph	Rousing MSW hero now faces winners, which is never easy, but he drew perfectly, meets no one to fear, and will offer a hint of value too; call right back.
#10 No Sense	Pace player did well to draw outside some of the other speed and that 2nd at the level last time was solid, and he's another who will be a price; big chance.
#3 Isaiah Isaiah	Stalker was close to 'Sense in 3rd last time and drew better here, and if the pace falls apart then he's the one who will benefit the most; would be no surprise.
Race Summary	There's a lot to like about the pick, especially since he has plenty of upside off just three starts, which is more than most of these can say, so play him in all the slots, and especially in the Pk5, and late Pk4 as well, as he's going the right way, and a win in the 5-1 range would add some value to both sequences.

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Mountaineer - Race #1

#10 Renegade Bob	Debuts from a pretty good draw to avoid early trouble, and he isn't meeting a particularly imposing field. Might be able to handle these out of the gate.
#5 Strikeitortapit	Something like the two-back run would make short work of these, but that has been the exception to his form rather than the rule. Possible, but probably at an underlaid price.
#8 Skinnersburg	Chased a tough winner in the debut run and couldn't hang late, but he can probably stay on a bit better with that race under his belt.
Race Summary	Renegade Bob finds a pretty modest spot for his career debut, and he'd be plenty playable at something like the 5/1 ML price.

Mountaineer - Race #2

#9 Cosmic Cowboy	Not completely sold on him getting this trip at first asking, but there are obviously low expectations for him. That said, he at least has never lost a race in a spot where the rest own 142 combined losses, so let's see if he proves less bad than the rest.
#2 Fat Maker	Something like the two-back run at Belterra when he was DQ'ed would do the job with these, but his form is all over the place and I wouldn't want to be trusting him at too short a price.
#4 Mr McGuerty	He owns a couple of decent back races locally, and he may bring an effort solid enough to land a piece of this.
Race Summary	Cosmic Cowboy debuts in the basement, but he catches one of the softest fields in recent memory and could probably graduate at first asking with a 'B-' kind of effort.

Mountaineer - Race #6

#5 Old and Costly	Tactical type is in decent form, and those recent running lines aren't too far off what it might take to keep up with the likely heavy chalk.
#1 Spring Lass	Just handled similar on the lawn, but the overall form is pretty spotty, and I wouldn't be too excited to dive in at a short number here.
#3 My Claw	Prefer her underneath with this group off the maiden win last time out, but she might be good enough to land a piece while stepping up to try winners for the first time.
Race Summary	Old and Costly might be the right upsetter in a spot where Spring Lass is the one to beat, but she'll be a short price and doesn't always back up big efforts.

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1

#3 TIGER’S WAY	Too late and too wide as the favorite, gets Filion.
#4 HOMEY JOE	Got up for third in 1:50.1 in repeat attempt.
#1 AMERICAN VIRGIN	Started from posts 9 and 10 in 4 of last 5 starts, draws rail.
Race Summary	Tiger’s Way, unhurried for a half-mile, gained steadily from there and closed fastest of all while getting a good view of the grandstand. He’s 0-14 this year but lures Filion to drive. Play 3-1 and 3-4 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #5

#2 DREAM NATION	Trapped at key juncture, rallied wide for third, price attached.
#6 BUZZ	Steps up, seeks duplicate of wire-to-wire score for 29th victory.
#8 STEUBEN HANOVER	Late foot against better two back, broke stride in follow-up.
Race Summary	Dream Nation was blocked and shuffled in the third quarter but finished well for third behind class-rising In The Muscle (in tonight’s 7th race). He retains good betting value in this field, so play a 2-6-8 exacta box.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #7

#3 IN THE MUSCLE	Started from second tier, uncovered bid, wore down leader.
#2 ONLY THE CASH	Mare romped the last time she ran in non-preferred company.
#10 BAUTISTA	Posted front-end score on class drop, has passing gear.
Race Summary	In the Muscle, out and moving before the half, wore down the 5-to-1 pace setter and found more when needed in deep stretch to prevail. He can handle the class rise from a better starting spot. Play 3-2 and 3-10 exactas.

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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

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Indiana Grand - Race #1

#1 Raintree Scarlet	Was outrun on turf last time but ran against much better than what she faces today. Tries to run a mile and should be able cut out the fractions of her rider's choosing.
#2 Indian Feather	Has won going two turns and should be closest to the leader early on; fits for this price.
#6 Black Nova	Has been in tough races and is a late threat here; will be relaxed early and should make an impact is the front runners weaken.
Race Summary	Raintree Starlet is classier than most here and could be running free on the front end; legit chance to steal.

Indiana Grand - Race #5

#1 He's a Warrior	Improved position and finished second last out and can get a good stalking trip from just off the pace; rallies for the win.
#8 Our Neighbor Boys	Failed on turf last time but has several good dirt races to his credit; late threat.
#4 Cuzi'mhappy	Is a threat to get to the lead and should be tough to the end.
Race Summary	He's a Warrior has enough speed to stay within range and should be able to out-kick these.

Indiana Grand - Race #8

#5 Excebiades	Rallied well and just missed last out in her first for Langemeier barn; can win if she runs back to that one.
#4 Settle a Score	Was flying at the end of her latest, finishing third in a similar spot; can be effective with a little more at the start.
#9 Sequaya	Was second in three of his last four and with a big effort could hang around for the finish.
Race Summary	Excebiades was much improved in her first for her new stable and can get it done here with any additional improvement.

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MLB public betting, line movement October 20
Patrick Everson

Mookie Betts and the L.A. Dodgers rode a Game 7 win and NLCS comeback against the Atlanta Braves to return to the World Series, where the Superbook at Westgate installed them as -215 favorites

MLB betting odds move on to the final frontier of this shortened season, the World Series. The Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays both needed seven games in their respective league championship series, and now they’ll meet in the Fall Classic.

Multiple oddsmakers provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement, sharp money and public betting for World Series odds as a whole and Tuesday’s Game 1. Covers will update this action report with MLB sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement through game time.

The SuperBook put up its price to win the best-of-7 World Series late Sunday night, opening at Dodgers -215/Rays +185. There was apparently a little Tampa Bay money early, with a move to Dodgers -200/Rays +175.

John Murray, executive director of The SuperBook, was hoping for Braves-Rays, a big win-win, as both sides would’ve been very good for the house. But he’ll settle for Rays-Dodgers.

“The Rays are awesome for us,” Murray said. “We’re a small loser to the Dodgers.”

That’s no surprise, with Las Vegas books always attracting plenty of Dodger dollars, and surely more will show up on the series price and on a game-by-game basis over the next week or so.

Meanwhile, PointsBet USA opened Dodgers -182/Rays +145, and the first move was significant, to Dodgers -200/Rays +160. Patrick Eichner, director of communications for PointsBet USA, said Los Angeles represents a substantial loss should it claim the championship, while Tampa Bay would be a big win.

“The Dodgers were the second-most-bet team to win, behind the Yankees,” Eichner said. “The Rays only account for about 4 percent of the overall bet count on the (World Series) market.”

MLB line movement

UPDATE 2 P.M. ET MONDAY: DraftKings opened Game 1 at Dodgers -175/Rays +148, and the first moves were down, as the moneyline is now Los Angeles -162/Tampa Bay +138. The total is stable at 8.

The Dodgers rallied from a 3-1 NLCS deficit against the Braves, finishing with a 4-3 Game 7 victory on Sunday night. On the flip side, the Rays blew a 3-0 ALCS lead against the Astros, but came through with a 4-2 Game 7 win Saturday.

Although Game 1 starters weren’t set late Sunday night, The SuperBook went ahead and posted the line at Dodgers -165/Rays +155, with a total of 8. There was no movement Sunday night for Tuesday’s tilt, with first pitch at 8:09 p.m. ET.

MLB public betting

UPDATE 2 P.M. ET MONDAY: It's two-way action early on Game 1 at DraftKings, with 55 percent of tickets on the Rays and 59 percent of money on the favored Dodgers. Ticket count on the total is two-way, with the Over at 56 percent, though money is more pronounced on the Over, at 70 percent.

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MLB
Dunkel

Tuesday, October 20

Tampa Bay @ LA Dodgers

Game 951-952
October 20, 2020 @ 8:09 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
(Glasnow) 16.129
LA Dodgers
(Kershaw) 19.006
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 3
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-175
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
(-175); Under

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MLB

Tuesday, October 20

World Series

Tampa Bay vs Los Angeles (@ Arlington)
Glasnow is 4-1, 3.86 in his last six starts.
— Rays are 12-3 in his starts this season.
— Under is 3-3 in his last six starts.
— Glasnow allowed six runs in four IP in three relief stints vs LA.
— He is 2-3, 5.47 in six postseason starts.

— Tampa Bay is 13-5 in its last 18 games; they survived blowing a 3-0 series lead vs Houston, and their bullpen had the last two days off.
— Rays are 49-25 this season.
— Under is 8-1 in their last eight games.
— Tampa Bay lost its only previous World Series, in 2008.

Kershaw is 3-1, 3.60 in his last five starts.
— Dodgers are 10-3 in his starts this season.
— Over is 5-2 in his last seven starts.
— Kershaw is 11-12, 4.31 in 35 playoff games (28 starts).
— He is 2-0, 1.88 in two career starts against the Rays.

— Dodgers are 52-20 this year; they rallied from down 3-1 to win the NLCS.
— Dodgers are in playoffs for the 8th year in a row.
— LA is 31-11 away from home this season.
— Over is 4-2 in their last six games.
— Dodgers haven’t won World Series since 1988; they lost World Series in 2017-18.

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MLB

Tuesday, October 20

Trend Report

Tampa Bay @ LA Dodgers
Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Tampa Bay's last 16 games on the road
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home
LA Dodgers is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mountaineer Park

Mountaineer Park - Race 8	$2 Daily Double (races 8-9) $2 Exacta $1 Box $1 Trifecta $.50 Box$1 Superfecta $.20 Box
Claiming $15,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 68 • Purse: $10,300 • Post: 9:34P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 20 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000 (W V A BRED RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. WITHOUT MALICE is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * WITHOUT MALICE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rati ng. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. PRIME TIME: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
5	WITHOUT MALICE	6/5	8/5
6	PRIME TIME	6/1	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	WITHOUT MALICE	5	6/5	Front-runner	76	71	85.0	72.4	68.9
7	ALLABOUTBIZ	7	5/2	Front-runner	56	47	64.6	51.0	43.5
4	KING STORMY	4	12/1	Front-runner	62	47	58.6	33.2	20.2
3	A B G GUERRERO	3	15/1	Front-runner	58	53	53.2	44.6	33.1
6	PRIME TIME	6	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	81	69	49.4	60.6	54.6
2	GATTO ROSSO	2	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	64	60	47.4	56.4	49.9
1	ANDRES ROMAN	1	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	61	44	39.0	41.2	34.2

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx Racing

Parx Racing - Race 6	Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) / Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta 10 cent Superfecta
Maiden Special • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 83 • Purse: $40,000 • Post: 3:10P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * PATEGORY ONE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination win perc entage is at least 30. MAGIC MULE: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SCORPION DYNASTY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Hors e has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
1	PATEGORY ONE	5/2	4/1
2	MAGIC MULE	3/1	9/2
7	SCORPION DYNASTY	8/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	LYNARD	6	5/1	Front-runner	79	47	81.1	53.3	46.3
2	MAGIC MULE	2	3/1	Front-runner	87	81	69.8	73.7	69.7
5	CANTSTOPRUNNING	5	9/2	Alternator/Front-runner	62	63	80.5	67.5	60.5
7	SCORPION DYNASTY	7	8/1	Alternator/Front-runner	78	75	71.2	61.0	51.5
1	PATEGORY ONE	1	5/2	Stalker	80	83	56.2	73.5	69.5
9	TONY FROM OCALA	9	12/1	Trailer	0	0	19.9	26.5	15.5
4	CHASING DREAMS	4	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	80.6	8.5	0.0

Unknown Running Style: CITIZEN WEST (4/1) [Jockey: Pennington Frankie - Trainer: Breen Kelly J], PRINCE CHAMP (15/1) [Jockey: Castillo Angel - Trainer: Leung Carlos A].

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Grants Pass

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 76

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 COLT FIFTY SEVEN 4/1
# 5 MYSTIC WOOD FORCE 9/2
# 4 PROUD RIDE 6/1

COLT FIFTY SEVEN is my choice. Looks quite good versus this group of animals and ought to be one of the leaders. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Essex running at this distance are the most respectable in this group. MYSTIC WOOD FORCE - Could provide positive gains based on very strong recent speed figures with an average of 69. Has to be carefully examined here if only for the formidable Equibase speed fig earned in the last race. PROUD RIDE - Has some encouraging handicapping angles which make this entrant a bet. In this field, this one is ranked high in earnings per start in dirt sprint races.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Thistledown - Race #8 - Post: 4:20pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,700 Class Rating: 83

Rating:

#8 ZOMBIE (ML=6/1)
#6 WIZARD WILLIE (ML=7/2)
#7 SOUTHERN SPIRIT (ML=6/1)


ZOMBIE - Have to give this gelding a good shot. Ran a good race in the last race within the last 30 days. McKee comes to ride again after getting to know the gelding in the last event. This animal is tops in earnings per race. He looks nice in today's affair. WIZARD WILLIE - This gelding is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Johnson. When a sprinter is back in a race less than 10 days after his last outing, it generally means he's fit. This thoroughbred coming off a solid contest in the last month or so is a contender in my book. SOUTHERN SPIRIT - This horse coming off a good try in the last month or so is a strong challenger in my book. Was the leader for every call in last race at Thistledown. Good chance to repeat that effort right here in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 PACIFIC IMAGE (ML=5/2), #5 THIRTYSILVERPIECES (ML=9/2), #2 CONDUCIVE (ML=8/1),

PACIFIC IMAGE - This horse hasn't been on the track since August 26th. Not even any drills. THIRTYSILVERPIECES - In any race of 6 furlongs, I like to play a contender that has been sharp in short distance races lately. CONDUCIVE - I find it hard to play any thoroughbred in a short distance contest at 8/1 when he hasn't shown any positive results in sprints in the last 60 days.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #8 ZOMBIE to win. Have to have odds of at least 5/2 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	8 with [6,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [6,7,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass