Thursday 10/29/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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NFL odds Week 8: Opening lines, line movement
Patrick Everson

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are coming off a bye as they host the division rival Steelers in Week 8. The SuperBook at Westgate opened Baltimore -6 and moved to -5.5 late Sunday evening.

NFL Week 7 is almost behind us, with NFL Week 8 odds on the betting board and already seeing movement. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens do battle in the AFC North, and the San Francisco 49ers face the Seattle Seahawks in an NFC West clash.

The SuperBook at Westgate's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 8 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting.

NFL Week 8 odds

These are the current NFL Week 8 odds, as of October 26.



Teams on bye: Washington Football Team, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Arizona Cardinals

Falcons at Panthers odds
Opening line
Panthers -3, Over/Under 49.5

Why the line moved
The bottom two in the NFC South get an early jump on Week 8 in the Thursday night game. Carolina opened -3 at The SuperBook, and there was no movement Sunday night.

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NFL betting tips for Week 8: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

The New England Patriots offense has scored a grand total of just 28 points overt their last three games and face another struggling offense in Buffalo in Week 8.

It’s hard to believe that Sunday’s NFL Week 8 games will be played on November 1.

This is the time of the year in which teams either go all in on the playoff push or start wondering if its worth it. And with the difficulties of the COVID-19-influenced season, I expect losing teams to start giving less of a crap even sooner into the schedule than normal.

The best NFL betting strategy through it all is getting the better of the numbers. These are our NFL betting tips for the Week 8 odds to bet now and bet later.

Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-3): Bet Now

The Browns follow their thrilling win over the rival Bengals on Sunday as 3-point home chalk hosting the Raiders in Week 8. Books opened Cleveland as a field-goal favorite Sunday night and already some shops are dealing the half-point hook on the host.

The early money is buying into the Browns, who didn’t look that great in Sunday’s win against Cincinnati. Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield had a bad start to the game but got right to the tune of five touchdown passes. That effort, which included a last-second touchdown, was enough to give the Browns their fifth win of the season.

Las Vegas got shelled by Tampa Bay at home in Week 7, allowing Tom Brady and the Buccos to post 45 points – 21 of those in the fourth quarter. The Silver and Black are one of the worst defenses in the NFL, allowing almost 33 points per game. That’s a touch worse than Cleveland's stop unit, which is serving up 31.6 points per outing.

If you’re banking on the Browns, get them now at the clean field goal and avoid that nasty half-point hook in a game that could go either way, considering the defenses involved.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-3): Bet Later

Most books opened the Falcons as heavily-juiced 3-point underdogs Sunday evening, with the points coming with a -120 price tag for Thursday Night Football. The lookahead line for this NFC South showdown was at Panthers -2.5 last week and that looks like where it’s headed considering the early movement for the vig.

Carolina dropped its second straight game in a 27-24 loss at New Orleans, but covered as a touchdown road dog. The Panthers have been competitive in just about every game this season, with an average margin of -0.9 through seven games. This offense, which has overperformed, could have superstar RB Christian McCaffrey back for Thursday too.

The Falcons “Falcon’d” themselves again versus Detroit in Week 7. Atlanta had the game in hand, but an ill-timed touchdown gave the ball back to the Lions in the waning seconds of the fourth quarter and… well, you know how these end for the Falcons.

I’m a little surprised Carolina -3 is discounted, but wait it out and see if -2.5 shows up between now and when McCaffrey’s status is updated.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (Under 45): Bet Now

Yeesh, when the Bills aren’t scoring 30 points a game, they’re one bad football team. The high-flying Buffalo offense has been grounded the past three games, with the team combining for just 51 points over that span – compared to 123 points totaled in the first four games of the schedule.

The Patriots are also going through an offensive crisis, with a combined outpouring of 28 points in their last three contests – including scoring just six in Sunday’s home ass-waxing at the hands of the 49ers. It’s like New England’s offense hasn’t come out of quarantine since the team’s COVID-19 outbreak in early October.

The total for this AFC East grudge match hit the board at 46 points Sunday night and was a favorite play of sharp bettors right away, dropping to 45 in about an hour. These divisional foes are a collective 0-5-1 Over/Under in their last six contests and have gone Under in six of their last nine meetings overall. If you’re on that Under bandwagon, take the U45 now before it sinks even lower.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (Under 49): Bet Later

Given the firepower on both sides and the way the 2020 season is bursting with points like a freshly whacked pinata, seeing this total below 50 is a bit surprising. That may be the early narrative as well, with some books tacking on a half-point move to 49.5.

Pittsburgh is unblemished and coming off a high-scoring thriller against Tennessee in which it scored 27 points but only three of those came in the second half. The Steelers offense stalled like a 1997 Toyota Tercel on a cold Pennsylvania morning and can thank the defense for keeping the Titans at bay down the stretch (and also thank Stephen Gostkowski for missing a game-tying 45-yarder in the final seconds).

The Ravens offense is chewing up the gains on the ground – big surprise – but Lamar Jackson has struggled to throw the football – big surprise (no really) – with a passer rating of 99.2 (compared to 113.3 last year). Baltimore is averaging almost 30 points per game but has played plenty of pedestrian defenses along the way.

These heated rivals have gone Over in their last two meetings, but those totals were almost laughable at 44 and 38 points (HA!). Before those results, the Steelers and Ravens played below the total in six of their previous eight encounters. If you like another Under, hold your horses and wait to see how high this Week 8 O/U goes.

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Tech Trends - Week 8
Bruce Marshall

Week 8 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday, Oct. 29 and we've identified betting trends and angles for all 14 matchups. We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Thursday, Oct. 29

ATLANTA at CAROLINA

Falcons romped in both meetings LY, but Panthers have covered 4 of last 5 after Saints result.
Carolina 1-5-1 vs. line last seven in Charlotte (1-2 for Rhule).
Falcs actually 6-1 vs. line last seven away.

Tech Edge: Slight to Falcons, based on team trends

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101ATLANTA -102 CAROLINA
ATLANTA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game in the last 2 seasons.

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NFL
Dunkel

Week 8

Thursday, October 29

Atlanta @ Carolina

Game 101-102
October 29, 2020 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
132.213
Carolina
127.528
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 4 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 2 1/2
49
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+2 1/2); Under

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NFL
Long Sheet

Week 8

Thursday, October 29

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (1 - 6) at CAROLINA (3 - 4) - 10/29/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 86-59 ATS (+21.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 4-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 4-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL

Week 8

Trend Report

Thursday, October 29

Atlanta @ Carolina
Atlanta
Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Carolina's last 7 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

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NFL

Week 8

Falcons (1-6) @ Carolina (3-4)
— Falcons are 0-5 ATS when they score less than 39 points.
— Atlanta covered two of its three road games.
— Falcons lost 30-16 at Green Bay in their only outdoor game so far.
— Atlanta is 6-4 ATS in its last ten games as a road underdog.
— Three of their four games stayed under the total.

— Carolina lost its last two games, 23-16/27-24.
— Panthers lost two of its three home games this year.
— Carolina is 10-14 ATS in its last 24 games as a home favorite.
— Team leading at halftime won all seven Carolina games.
— Over is 4-3 in Panther games this season.

— Carolina (+2.5) upset the Falcons 23-16 in Atlanta, three weeks ago, their first win in last six series games.
— Falcons won 24-10/29-3 in their last two visits to Charlotte.

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Week 8 Weather

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: The early forecast is not good for Thursday night in Charlotte. There could be a half-inch of rain during the day, more in the evening, and winds of 10-20 mph. By Monday night at The SuperBook, the total was down 2 points to 49.

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Hot & Not Report - Week 8
Matt Blunt

NFL Week 8 Betting Angles

Last week's piece had another solid showing as divisional home teams went 4-3 straight up to push that run to 16-7 SU since the start of Week 2.

Even in those three outright losses, the Bengals and Jets managed to get against the spread wins, for those bettors interested in taking the points instead with those home underdogs, as 'dogs in general in those division games in Week 7 finished with a 5-2 ATS record with Washington closing as the favorite.

There are a bunch more divisional matchups in Week 8, and some of them could be considered “Game of the Week” type candidates with the likes of Pittsburgh-Baltimore, and San Francisco-Seattle likely to get plenty of attention.

Those runs in division games that I outlined last week are definitely something to keep in the back of your mind as the Week 8 board gets broken down, but this week's piece shifts slightly away from that for one, and rehashes an even older run I mentioned a few weeks ago that continues to pay off.

Who's Hot

Since the start of Week 5, NFL underdogs in non-division Conference games are 11-4 ATS overall, including 8-2 ATS the last two weeks.

This run may have hit its peak in Week 6 with 'dogs going 6-0 ATS when the following underdogs connected:

Denver (at New England)
Chicago (at Carolina)
Atlanta (at Minnesota)
Cincinnati (at Indianapolis)
Tampa Bay (vs. Green Bay)
Arizona (at Dallas)

Things were brought back down to earth in Week 7 with a 2-2 ATS mark for the underdogs in that scenario (Pittsburgh, Detroit, Jacksonville and Chicago), but considering the games that are on the docket in Week 8 that fit into this situation, there are some interesting handicapping questions for every bettor to work through.

Who Do You Follow?

Bengals
Raiders
Jets
Bears
Giants

The Week 8 non-division Conference underdogs that would be in this 'play on' spot are Cincinnati +5.5 (vs. Tennessee), Las Vegas +2.5 (at Cleveland), the New York Jets +19.5 (at Kansas City), Chicago +2.5 (vs. New Orleans), and the New York Giants (+10.5) vs Tampa Bay.

Now, it's understandable for most to want to have nothing to do with either of the New York squads right off the bat and I don't think anyone can blame you for not wanting to back the Jets or the Giants right now.

But those are still a lot of points to pass up in both of those games, as I do think the most likely result in the big picture is seeing at least one of those New York teams cover the number.

Who that ends up being is part of the fun of breaking down games each week, but with early support already showing on the Jets – that line opened up at +21 – and against the Giants – that line opened up at +9.5 – it appears as the early bettors in the marketplace prefer the much bigger cushion with the Jets against a KC team that's got a great chance to potentially be disinterested in being expected to win by 20+.

The other three teams are much more interesting though, with the Bears and Bengals coming in as home 'dogs.

After Chicago's rough offensive showing on MNF, I would expect that number to move against Chicago as the week goes on because that offense shouldn't be able to keep up with New Orleans, at least on paper. With the Saints having covered the last five head-to-head meetings with Chicago – including a 36-25 win in Chicago last year – any Bears support is probably best to sit on until later in the week and the line reveals it's nature of movement.

Cincinnati and its defense is going to have to find an answer for stopping this Titans offense that just continues to put up points each week – they've averaged 34.4 points per game in their last five. But the Bengals have grown used to having a defense that has trouble stopping basically everyone – Cincinnati has allowed at least 23 points in all of their games since Week 2 – but they are still 5-1 ATS in that span.

The Bengals have made a conscious effort to make this year about developing the offense in Year 1 for rookie quarterback Joe Burrow and they'll figure out the defense later.

Even without this situational trend suggesting a play on the Bengals, it's teams like the Bengals that put the majority of their effort in on offense that can be a great bet when catching points.


Who's Not

NFL teams before a TNF (or scheduled TNF appearance) are now 2-10 SU on the year and 3-8-1 ATS

This is a run that's just continued on since I brought it up at the start of Week 5.

And after getting burned yet again by the Atlanta Falcons this past weekend (I've personally been on Atlanta vs Dallas, Chicago and now Detroit), and then seeing that the Falcons are up on TNF this week, I thought it best to put out this friendly reminder (for myself and others) to really think long and hard about backing these teams in this spot.

The Carolina Panthers are the Falcons opponent this week, and while Carolina did account for one of those three ATS wins when they covered vs New Orleans, they still found a way to lose outright.

I put in the “scheduled TNF appearance” because of what happened with the Chiefs/Bills game that was originally scheduled for a TNF appearance before virus issues pushed that game back to Monday.

Even still, the week before the Chiefs and Bills met, the Raiders upset the Chiefs as huge underdogs, and Buffalo got their doors blown off by the Titans. Those two results are included in that 2-10 SU run.

Who do you Fade?

Packers
49ers

And bringing up the reminder for this scenario this week is important because with Week 9's TNF game slated for Green Bay at San Francisco, we've got two high profile Week 8 games (Minnesota at Green Bay, SF at Seattle) where it's applicable.

Minnesota has not had this year go as planned, but they are coming off a bye week (extra prep time) and are a team that the majority of the marketplace has already written off. With Green Bay being one of the most popular selections across the board in Week 7 and cashing easily vs Houston, support for the Packers will likely be through the roof again this week.

But any team off a bye should always be considered at least a little dangerous from an ATS perspective, especially when it's a divisional opponent they know rather well.

It's also one of the ultimate “buy low, sell high” scenarios as buying low on the Vikings with the market perception being so negative on them, and selling high on a Packers team that just got the masses paid after a small setback in Tampa Bay. It really is tough to ignore getting that TD with a post-bye week Vikings squad.

Fading the 49ers as a small road 'dog should make many happy that they get to back QB Russell Wilson in that case, but as I talked about in this piece before the Arizona game, Seattle's still a bad team on 3rd down (AKA “the money down”) on both sides of the ball (5-for-13 on offense vs Arizona).

The 519 total yards Seattle's defense gave up put them in the NFL record books for the most yards allowed through six games in the history of the league (2,875), and if that's not the profile of a bad football team, I'm not sure what is.

The situation may favor a play on Seattle in this spot, but the blind spot in the market right now with many believing Seattle is actually a good football TEAM is something that's probably better to look to exploit rather than back.

Meaning as funny as this may sound, it's actually the 1-5 SU Minnesota Vikings that appear to be the much better bet than the 5-1 Seattle Seahawks.

Many won't agree with that and that's fine, I've got no problem letting the “One Man Army” that the Seahawks are with Russell Wilson continue to be overvalued.

I'm sure the band Our Lady Peace and their 90's hit “One Man Army" from my formative years would be proud of what they see in the Seahawks this year.

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Falcons vs. Panthers Week 8 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

We are already at Week 8 of this very unusual 2020 NFL season, and with the expanded playoffs in place this year, talk about playoff seeding and who's got a chance to get in etc is getting ready to dominate the airwaves.

It's also a point in the season where many of the teams in the bottom half of the standings right now are likely a loss or two away from punting on the campaign, so keep that in mind as well in the coming weeks.

The Atlanta Falcons are one of those organizations that are basically already in that punt mode for 2020 and they really have nobody but themselves to blame. They've given away wins vs Dallas, Chicago, and Detroit already this year, so the 1-6 SU record that they enter this Thursday Night Football (TNF) game with really should be much closer to .500.

I'm not entirely sure if that's an indictment on just how many self-inflicted mistakes this organization has made since losing the Super Bowl a few years ago, but I do know that the majority in the market would believe it to be so.

So the question is, can that be exploited in this divisional rematch game (Carolina won 23-16 in Atlanta a few weeks back) or is this just going to be another case of the Falcons finding new and creative ways to get in the way of their own success?

Betting Resources

Week 8 Matchup: NFC South
Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Location: Charlotte, North Carolina
Date: Thursday, Oct. 29, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NFL Network

The Panthers seek the season sweep of the Falcons after winning in Atlanta earlier this month. (AP)

Falcons-Panthers Betting Odds

Spread: Carolina -3
Money-Line: Carolina -140, Atlanta +130
Total: 50.5

2020 Betting Stats

Atlanta

Overall: 1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS, 4-3 O/U
Road: 1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 26.3 (Rank 13)
Defense PPG: 29.6 (Rank 26)
Offense YPG: 401.0 (Rank 6)
Defense YPG: 425.9 (Rank 31)

Carolina

Overall: 3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS, 3-4 O/U
Home: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 23.1 (Rank 25)
Defense PPG: 24.0 (Rank 13)
Offense YPG: 369.1 (Rank 15)
Defense YPG: 351.1 (Rank 13)

Handicapping the Total

Carolina's 23-16 win over the Falcons a few weeks back was a dead nuts to the 'under', but it was also a game that was dominated by drives from both teams stalling.

Six total FG's were kicked in that game, and four of those six came from inside 40 yards as it was the Panthers who accounted for three of those four sub-40 yard tries.

Oddly enough, that's actually a positive for this Falcons defense, and for 'under' thoughts, but I'm not sure they'll be able to duplicate that performance and get off the field on 3rd down as much as they did in that game.

Carolina still converted 50% of their 3rd downs in that game (6-for-12), and on the road this year, Atlanta has allowed opponents to convert 47% of their 3rd downs. That number puts them in the bottom third of the league overall and puts them right in line with what happened in the first game.

However, at the same time, Carolina's 2nd last in the league in overall opponent 3rd down conversion percentage at 56.32%, as they are a team that has only really gotten worse in that regard.

The better than projected start that this new coaching regime (Matt Rhule) had in Carolina has cooled off a bit now, and even with all of the blunders Atlanta has committed this year (and previous years) in blowing games, they are still a team loaded with talent on offense if quarterback Matt Ryan can consistently protect the ball and get it to all those weapons he does have.

Put it all together, and even with it being a short week and those games tending to lean towards lower scoring affairs, the only way I can look at this total is to go 'over' the number. Carolina might have running back Christian McCaffrey back this week and I don't need to go on to explain how big of a weapon he is for this team.

Finally, in each of the last two seasons, these two teams have always managed to cash the opposite result on the total in their 2nd meeting of the year – ie if the first game went 'over' the second went 'under' – and after some initial action bumped this total down, it's started to climb back up and over the 50-point threshold.

Hard not to agree with that latter move in this instance.

Head-to-Head History

Oct. 11, 2020 - Carolina 23 at Atlanta 16, Panthers +2.5, Under 53.5
Dec. 8, 2019 - Atlanta 40 vs. Carolina 20, Falcons -3.5, Over 48
Nov. 17, 2019 - Atlanta 29 at Carolina 3, Falcons +3.5, Under 49
Dec. 23, 2018 - Atlanta 24 at Carolina 10, Falcons -3, Under 46

Handicapping the Side

The Falcons may not have a lot going for them in terms of how they are viewed by the outside world, but they are 2-1 ATS this season as an underdog, and since the start of last season, traditional TNF games (not counting Thanksgiving) between division rivals has seen the underdog go on to cash a spread wager in eight of their 10 opportunities.

That includes a 2-0 ATS mark this season with the New York Giants covering at Philadelphia last Thursday and Cincinnati earning the late cover at Cleveland in Week 2.

But understandably so, trusting the Falcons to get the job done is going to be next to impossible for many in the betting market with them getting less than a FG here.

There really is very little defense for some of the gaffs this team has had in blowing games this year, but there are plenty of other teams in this league that are just as average overall as the Falcons are, but they get a pass because they tend to win all the close games they are in. The Seattle Seahawks (up until losing to Arizona last week) come to mind.

The Falcons are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Panthers, and that includes games that were played in the years that Carolina and Atlanta ultimately made a Super Bowl appearance.

It's far from the best number to be confident in backing this 2020 Atlanta team, but as tough as it may be to submit a wager on the Falcons, they are the only way I can look at the side. That being said, +2.5 is not something I'm excited at all about taking.

Therefore, I do believe that the best way to go overall in this game is to actually go the teaser route with both the side and total. Remember, you can't blow as many games as the Falcons have of late without first having a lead, and with a team like Atlanta that you know always finds a way to play tight games, taking all the points you can with them is a plus.

So teasing the Falcons up to +8.5 with the total down to 44.5 on a 6-point teaser is where my money has landed this week.

Key Injuries

Atlanta

DE Takkarist McKinley: Groin - Questionable
OT Kaleb McGary: Elbow - Questionable
C Alex Mack: Knee - Questionable
WR Julio Jones: Hip - Questionable
WR Russell Gage: Knee - Questionable

Carolina

RB Christian McCaffrey: Ankle - Doubtful
DE Zach Kerr: Toe - Questionable
DE Efe Obada: Back - Questionable
DE Marquis Haynes: Knee - Questionable
CB Eli Apple: Hamstring - Questionable
OT Russell Okung: Calf - Questionable
G John Miller: Ankle - Questionable

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Laurel Park

Laurel Park - Race 7	EXACTA, TRIFECTA &DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 7-8) / 10 cent SUPERFECTA $1.00 SUPER HIGH 5
Allowance • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 94 • Purse: $42,000 • Post: 3:46P
(RAIL AT 87 FEET). (PLUS UP TO 30% MBF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING, STARTER OR MD SIRED OR MD BRED RACES OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN CLAIMING SINCE AUGUST 29 ALLOWED 3 LBS. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE ON THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT FIVE AND ONE HALF FURLONGS)

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * QUARKY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. HE'S ONE WILD DUDE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. RAILMASTER: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ran ks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. ANNAMATED MOON: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
1	QUARKY	5/2	9/2
11	HE'S ONE WILD DUDE	3/1	5/1
9	RAILMASTER	7/2	7/1
4	ANNAMATED MOON	8/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
9	RAILMASTER	9	7/2	Front-runner	93	82	113.6	84.2	76.7
1	QUARKY	1	5/2	Front-runner	94	97	110.0	92.4	88.9
3	FAIR CATCH	3	5/1	Front-runner	86	73	92.3	75.4	56.9
5	SHACKLED	5	30/1	Stalker	77	69	76.8	70.4	52.9
11	HE'S ONE WILD DUDE	11	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	95	93	95.2	87.7	83.7
7	THE THIRD SECRET	7	10/1	Trailer	81	77	75.8	79.6	64.1
4	ANNAMATED MOON	4	8/1	Trailer	93	88	70.2	86.6	79.1
8	ROCK THE COMET	8	8/1	Trailer	76	82	23.5	62.9	43.4
10	EGO MAN	10	5/2	Trailer	92	88	0.0	64.5	57.0
6	STARRY MESSENGER	6	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	80	75	84.6	71.4	55.9
2	BOONDOGGLE	2	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	86	75	78.4	60.8	48.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Golden Gate Fields

Golden Gate Fields - Race 5	$1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double $1 Superfecta (.10 min) / $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) $1 Rolling Super High Five
Maiden Claiming $8,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 77 • Purse: $10,500 • Post: 3:19P
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Trailer. DUCHAMP is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * DUCHAMP: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. Today is a sprint and the horse is carryi ng at least 120 lbs. PEQUENO MONTE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LORD VADER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
9	DUCHAMP	5/2	5/2
6	PEQUENO MONTE	3/1	5/1
7	LORD VADER	5/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	GENTLEMAN'S SECRET	1	20/1	Front-runner	0	0	83.5	39.0	27.0
7	LORD VADER	7	5/1	Front-runner	76	77	78.0	64.4	57.4
6	PEQUENO MONTE	6	3/1	Front-runner	80	78	70.4	73.6	70.6
4	TIGER'S SONG	4	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	62.0	55.5	47.0
2	SECOND BOLD	2	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	75	71	54.0	66.0	59.0
9	DUCHAMP	9	5/2	Alternator/Trailer	98	90	34.1	71.1	64.6
8	TEXAS BOB	8	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	68	64	29.8	53.6	42.1

Unknown Running Style: WILD WAGER (6/1) [Jockey: Rivera Santos - Trainer: Offield Duane], LUCKY CAUSE (10/1) [Jockey: Monroy Francisco - Trainer: Offield Duane].

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Woodbine - Race #8 - Post: 5:45pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,700 Class Rating: 68

Rating:

#10 TEXT ME UP (ML=3/1)
#5 GLORIOUS GIZMO (ML=10/1)
#3 SING YOUR LIFE (ML=5/2)


TEXT ME UP - The improved Equibase speed figures over the last 3 races is strong. Richards drops her in this contest conditioned properly and ready to go. GLORIOUS GIZMO - If this filly gets out of the gate cleanly, she'll be tough to catch. Trainer McClachrie moves this one to a lower level to face a lower class field. Look for a good effort with this class drop. The recent bullet 100.0 work should put this filly on track for today's race. SING YOUR LIFE - Have to give this filly a fair chance. Ran a strong outing last time around the track within the last month or so. That 64 fig this filly notched in her last event tells me she's a big time player today. The improved speed ratings over the last three races is solid. Banach drops her in this race in shape and ready to win.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 FINE LADY (ML=6/1), #4 SICK SOCIETY (ML=8/1),

FINE LADY - This horse hasn't been hitting the board in either of her last couple of outings. This runner ran a somewhat easily forgotten speed fig last race out. She shouldn't improve and will likely get beat in today's race running that figure. SICK SOCIETY - Doesn't look inspiring to me after the lack of any sort of closing ability on Oct 9th. Most unsatisfactory speed rating last out at Woodbine at 1 1/16 miles. Don't believe this vulnerable equine will improve too much in today's race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #10 TEXT ME UP to win if you can get odds of 7/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,5,10] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $7500 Class Rating: 66

FOR NATIVE FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 14 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 29 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE AUGUST 29 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $14,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 PLATINO 3/2
# 3 CHONGO'S DREAM 10/1
# 2 MAGO DE ORIENTE 5/2

My pick in this contest is PLATINO. Have to sense that this racer will run well again this time out. Must be considered a solid choice on earnings per start at the distance/surface alone. Is tough not to look at given the company run in recently. CHONGO'S DREAM - Has very good Equibase Class Figures relative to this field - worth a look. He has put up very good figs under today's conditions and should fare well against this group of horses. MAGO DE ORIENTE - Could best this group based on the Equibase speed fig - 65 - of his last affair. Has been constatntly running well recently.