Saturday 10/31/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rob Vinciletti

Oct 31 '20, 7:00 PM in 8h
NCAA-F | Mississippi State vs Alabama
Play on: UNDER 64 -110

$$ Saturday Featured Free Play $$

The Saturday Comp play is on the Under in the Miss. St at Alabama game at 7:00 eastern. Miss St is the number one defense in the SEC under offensive minded coach Leach whose offense has looked inept thus far. Miss St has gone under in 5 of 6 if they had 275 or less yards last out, 13 of 16 if they allowed 170 or less yards passing and 5 of 6 under off a 10+ point home loss. Alabama is a staggering 2-23 under at home after allowing 7 or less points and 4 of 5 under after a game where they had 450+ yards. These two have gone under in 10 of 12. Bama will win easy here but the games stays under. For the Comp play. Play Under Miss. St and Alabama. Rob V- GC Sports.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee

Oct 31 '20, 7:30 PM in 9h
NCAA-F | Ohio State vs Penn State
Play on: Penn State +12½ -110 at sportsbook

PICK - Penn State Nittany Lions +12.5
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 136
Give me double-digits with Penn State at home against the Buckeyes. I think we are getting big value here from last week's results.
The Nittany Lions lost 35-36 at Indiana as a 7-point favorite. That's a much better Indiana team than I think most people realize. Not taking anything away from them, but they had a lot of breaks go their way. Penn State outgained the Hoosiers 488 to 211. It's hard to lose a game with that big of an edge in yards, especially when you hold the opposing under 220.
Ohio State won and covered in a 52-17 win at home against Nebraska as a 28-point favorite. The numbers were solid for the Buckeyes. They outgained the Cornhuskers 491-370, but that was a very close game early. It was tied 14-14 late in the 1st half before Ohio State took control.
Some very concerning things from that game. Nebraska had 210 rushing yards on 36 attempts, which comes out to 5.8 yards/carry. That's a far cry from the defense they had last year, which finished up allowing just 104 ypg and 3.0 yards/carry.
I just don't see that elite defensive linemen that this defense has had for years now. You have to go back to 2012 to find the last Ohio State team that didn't have either Joey Bosa, Nick Bosa or Chase Young on the defensive side.
I know Fields was great against Nebraska. He only had one incomplete pass, going 20 of 21 for 276 yards and 2 scores. He also led the team with 15 carries and 54 yards rushing.
I just wonder how much of that was playing a bad Nebraska defense.
Penn State held a good Indiana run game to just 41 yards on 26 attempts (1.6 yards/carry). Indiana running back Stevie Scott was a guy a lot of people had pegged as a 1st-Team All-Big Ten RB (2nd-Team last year).
I think if they can slow down the run game, they can make it hard on this offense. Last year Penn State held Ohio State to just 3.8 yards/carry. Fields was 16 of 22, but only had 188 yards. Buckeyes only scored 28.
I not only think the Nittany Lions keep this close. I think they can win outright. In the last 4 meetings, Penn State is just 1-3 SU, but two of those losses were by a mere 1-point and the other was by only 11. Give me the Nittany Lions +12.5!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ASA

Oct 31 '20, 8:00 PM in 9h
NCAA-F | Oklahoma vs Texas Tech
Play on: Texas Tech +16 -109 at GTBets

ASA FREE PLAY ON: Texas Tech Red Raiders (+) versus Oklahoma Sooners, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET -A lot of points to be giving Texas Tech as a home dog. The Red Raiders did get blasted at Oklahoma last season but they tend to be a different team when in Lubbock. Texas Tech lost to the Sooners by only 5 points in the most recent as a host. The Red Raiders lost by only 7 to Texas here and that was a game that went to OT which Texas Tech should have won outright in regulation time. The Red Raiders now enter this game having allowed 31 points or less in 3 straight games. The Sooners have been held to 35 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games. Per our computer math model, Oklahoma is going to struggle to cover the big number posted on this game and the big underdog is the play in this one. FREE PLAY Texas Tech (+) points

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness

Oct 31 '20, 8:00 PM in 9h
NCAA-F | North Carolina vs Virginia
Play on: North Carolina -7½ -104 at pinnacle

My free play is on North Carolina at 4:00 ET.
Mack Brown began his coaching career at Appalachian St (one season) and then three at Tulane, before arriving in Chapel Hill beginning in 1988. He went 1-10 his first two seasons but then led North Carolina to EIGHT consecutive winning season, the last six ending with a bowl appearance. His final season (1997) saw North Carolina finish 10-1 and ranked fourth in the AP's final poll. He ten had a VERY successful run at Texas, before resigning in 2013. He found a home in the TV studio but then surprised most by returning to coach at North Carolina in 2019. A 6-6 regular season was followed by a Military Bowl win, giving the Tar Heels a 7-6 record. Big things were expected for North Carolina in 2020, as the Tar Heels were ranked 18th in the AP's preseason poll. Carolina has opened 3-0 and were ranked No. 5 in the AP poll (the school's highest ranking since 1997), but were upset 31-28 at FSU on Oct 17. The Tar heels rebounded with a 48-21 home win over NC State last Saturday and are 4-1 and ranked 18th as they visit Charlottesville to play Virginia on the final day of October.
Bronco Mendenhall came to UVa after 11 seasons at BYU where he led the Cougars to a bowl game each season. He took over in 2016 and the Cavs finished 2-10 (so much for his 11-year bowl streak). However, he led the Cavs to three straight bowl games from 2017-19 and last season, won the school's first-ever ACC Coastal title plus ended an embarrassing 15-year losing streak to Va Tech with a 39-30 victory. UVa open the 2020 season with a 38-20 win over Duke but it's been all downhill from there, with the Cavs losing FOUR in a row, allowing 39.7 PPG in the team's first three losses, before losing 19-14 at Miami last Saturday in a game played in heavy rain.
North Carolina QB Sam Howell passed for 353 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions against Virginia in last year's meeting but the Tar Heels lost 38-31 loss at home to the Cavs (UVa has won THREE straight over North Carolina). The sophomore QB is having a good season so far, completing 64.2% for 1,403 yards with 10 TDs and just four INTs. The good news for Carolina fans is that Howell will face a Virginia team with the ACC's worst pass defense (286.0 YPG). Howell also gets terrific help from an OUTSTANDING pair of RBs in Carter (584 yards / 7.9 YPC / 3 TDs) and Williams (562 yards / 6.9 YPC / 10 TDs).
Virginia can't match North Carolina's offensive 'punch,' with two mediocre QBs in plus a running game that's top rusher (Taulapapa) has just 301 yards on 4.9 YPC and three TDs. Then, there a VERY shaky defense that I'll already discussed (see above), which will have to contain a North Carolina offense that has topped 500 yards in THREE straight games!
This is the 125th meeting of "The South's Oldest Rivalry," with North Carolina holding a 63-57-4 edge in the series. Virginia has won the last three meetings but exactly 50 years ago, the Tar Heels won the only previous time they met on Halloween, 30-15 on Oct 31, 1970. A two-TD margin of victory sounds about right on Halloween 2020!
Good luck...Larry

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joseph D'Amico

Oct 31 '20, 10:15 PM in 12h
NCAA-F | Western Kentucky vs BYU
Play on: BYU -28 -114 at pinnacle

Between Friday Night and Saturday, I will get you paid in college football as I have my NCAAF 2-0 FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS WINNER, my HIGH ROLLER, my 72% NO LIMIT, and my strongest play this month, my NCAAF GAME OF THE MONTH. Grab a broom because we will SWEEP THE BOARD.
Saturdays; FREE WINNER: BYU
Game 146.
7:15 pm pst.
There are some games you automatically circle as you are running down the schedule. There some game you cross off right away. And there are some games you might put a question mark next to and go back to later. This game is one I question marked then went back to and circled in ball point pen because it is a winner. BYU, which is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS this season, only has two games remaining on the schedule (Kinda' funny how some teams haven't even set foot on the gridiron yet, but this team is almost done LOL). Formerly an Independent and playing in the WCC for 2020, the Cougars must keep their foot on the gas and crush all adversaries. In the newest AP rankings, they are 11th, with two one-loss teams ahead of them in the polls (Georgia 5th, Texas A&M 13th). Even a poor outing may drop them in the rankings. Knowing this, they have had zero reservations about running up scores. The team has already covered point spreads of 24 and 30 points.
This is certainly a step up in class for a Western Kentucky team that is just 2-4 SU and have failed to cover a single outing this campaign. The Hilltoppers (lack of) offense is accounting for a dismal, 17.7 PPG Look for BYU quarterback, Zach Wilson (1,928 yards passing, 16/1) to continue to thrive and put himself even closer to Trevor Lawrence in the Heisman talk.
BYU is 7-1 ATS the last eight vs. CUSA, 4-1 ATS last five in October, and 9-3 ATS L12 following an ATS win. Western Kentucky is 0-4 ATS L4 in October, 0-3-1 ATS L4 on the road, and 0-5-1 ATS L6 following an ATS loss. This game gets out of hand. BYU minus the points will add to your bankroll. Take the Cougars. Thank you.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

Oct 31 '20, 10:30 PM in 12h
NCAA-F | Nevada vs UNLV
Play on: Nevada -10 -112 at pinnacle

1* Free Pick on Nevada -10 -112

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

(Sat) NCAAF Clemson
(Sat) NCAAF Michigan St
(Sat) NCAAF Ohio St
(Sat) NCAAF SMU
(Sat) NCAAF Texas Tech

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Charles Town

Charles Town - Race 3	Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double (Races 3-4) Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) / Pick 6 (Races 3-4-5-6-7-8)
Claiming $10,000 • 4 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 75 • Purse: $16,000 • Post: 8:02P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000, FOR EACH $1,000 TO $8,000 1 LB. (W V A RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY)(RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $6,250 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN WEIGHT ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Trailer. WINDSORS FOR IT is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * WINDSORS FOR IT: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. BOLD VALOR: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth st art after a layoff. MY TIME IN COURT: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
3	WINDSORS FOR IT	7/5	7/2
1	BOLD VALOR	7/2	9/2
7	MY TIME IN COURT	4/1	9/1

---

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	BOLD VALOR	1	7/2	Front-runner	80	78	77.4	68.6	64.6
5	FROSTY'S MAJESTY	5	12/1	Front-runner	77	61	77.0	50.2	40.7
6	MR. VECCHIO	6	10/1	Front-runner	67	55	47.2	55.4	43.4
7	MY TIME IN COURT	7	4/1	Stalker	76	71	68.8	58.0	51.0
4	BLACK CANDY	4	9/2	Stalker	63	64	68.4	61.8	52.8
3	WINDSORS FOR IT	3	7/5	Trailer	88	76	60.8	74.6	72.6
2	TRUFFLES AND GOLD	2	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	68	64	56.2	60.6	49.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 4	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $1 Superfecta (.10 cent minimum wager) $1 Pick Three / $1 Daily Double
Claiming $8,000 • 330 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 77 • Purse: $8,955 • Post: 7:34P
QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * HANGAR 24: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MINI SPEIGHTS: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. DORIANN: H orse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. UP FOR KIDS: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. PAPPASLILEAGLE: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
7	HANGAR 24	7/2	5/1
3	MINI SPEIGHTS	5/2	6/1
5	DORIANN	8/1	6/1
2	UP FOR KIDS	6/1	10/1
4	PAPPASLILEAGLE	6/1	10/1

---

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	FIRE SUNSET	1	4/1	Fast	72	65	0.0	0.0	0.0
2	UP FOR KIDS	2	6/1	Average	77	70	5.6	0.0	0.0
3	MINI SPEIGHTS	3	5/2	Slow	79	77	6.7	0.0	0.0
4	PAPPASLILEAGLE	4	6/1	Slow/Trouble-prone	73	74	7.5	0.0	0.0
5	DORIANN	5	8/1	Slow	81	78	7.8	0.0	0.0
6	HITTERS LAST SWING	6	5/1	Slow/Trouble-prone	65	68	6.8	0.0	0.0
7	HANGAR 24	7	7/2	Average	84	81	4.0	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Laurel

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

---

Race 4 - Maiden Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $18000 Class Rating: 74

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 SKI BUNNY 3/5
# 1 WE FIVE 6/1
# 8 RYE STREET 15/1

My selection here is SKI BUNNY. Proctor has this filly racing well and is a decent pick based on the formidable Equibase Speed Figs put up in route races lately. With Carrasco uptop her, this filly will probably be able to break out early here. Should definitely be considered for this event if only for the very strong Equibase Speed Figure posted in the last contest. WE FIVE - Overall the speed figures of this pony look strong in this contest. The average class fig alone makes this entrant a solid choice. RYE STREET - Strong returns have been scored by risk takers using this jockey and conditioner duo lately.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

---

Race 12 - Maiden Claiming - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $7200 Class Rating: 62

QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 CLASSIC TAMBIEN 4/1
# 7 ANNA TAMBIEN 8/5
# 8 HIDDEN MONEY 3/1

CLASSIC TAMBIEN has a very good shot to take this race. Earned a strong speed rating in the latest race. Can run another good one in this race. Overall, this trainer has been lucrative at this distance/surface. ANNA TAMBIEN - Must be given a shot here on the basis of the figures in the speed department alone. Will probably be one of the leaders of the group going into the halfway point of the race. HIDDEN MONEY - Looks very strong to be close to the front end at the first call. The average class fig alone makes this horse a solid contender.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Hawthorne - Race #8 - Post: 6:26pm - Allowance - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,000 Class Rating: 66

Rating:

#5 HOT PEPPER SUZIE (ML=5/1)
#7 PRANCIPANTS (ML=10/1)


HOT PEPPER SUZIE - Faces state bred foes today after finishing first versus 'open' company on October 9th. This mare is in fine form. Ran first on October 9th. This mare's last speed figure recorded on October 9th is number one in last race speed ratings. PRANCIPANTS - Don't often see a positive return on investment like +999. This rider/handler duet has done well together over the last year.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 WHITE LIES (ML=2/1), #4 RACHELGOTSTEPHEN (ML=3/1), #1 PALAGO (ML=7/2),

WHITE LIES - This filly probably needs a better pace configuration to make her closing move. RACHELGOTSTEPHEN - A rallier like this one needs a ding-dong battle to set things up and she isn't likely to get one this time out. PALAGO - This horse doesn't have a winner's mental state. Very often finishes in the place and show spots.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - HOT PEPPER SUZIE - My calculated information would suggest that some type of wager is indeed necessary given the lone speed that this horse should demonstrate against this field.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #5 HOT PEPPER SUZIE on the win end if we get at least 2/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Woodbine - Race #3 - Post: 2:07pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $26,500 Class Rating: 68

Rating:

#5 LA BONITA (ML=4/1)
#2 LEAN ON E (ML=8/1)
#8 PLAYING SMART (ML=10/1)


LA BONITA - The jockey/trainer tandem of Stein and Attard has a strong ROI together. LEAN ON E - Maiden is changing over to the dirt, and may not have liked the turf last out. Has a good chance to break maiden. Taking a trip to a lower class level; has the class ability to make her presence felt. PLAYING SMART - Maiden is moving to the main track, and may not have liked the turf last out. Has a good chance to be a first time winner.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 TYPICALLY (ML=3/1), #10 L'AMOUR TOUJOURS (ML=7/2), #4 SAN NICOLA STAR (ML=6/1),

TYPICALLY - I can't play this continual non-winner. Gets the assignment executed from time to time. Multiple chances for this vulnerable equine at Woodbine and still hasn't received her first victory here. L'AMOUR TOUJOURS - The fig last time out doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the class figure of today's affair. Mark this animal as a likely underlay. SAN NICOLA STAR - This filly most likely won't be really close at the wire.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #5 LA BONITA to win. Have to have odds of at least 3/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,5,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,5,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Churchill Downs

10/31/20, CD, Race 10, 5.36 ET
10/31/20,CD,10,1 1/16M [Turf] 1:39:04 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $34,000. FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 121 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Claiming Price $50,000. (If deemed inadvisable by management to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track at One and One Sixteenth mile.).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, WPC, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	5	Treaty of Paris	5/1	Santana. Jr. R	Asmussen Steven M.	SFEL	16	62.50	2.08/$1
096.9003	10	Better With Age	4/1	Geroux F	D'Amato Philip		16	62.50	2.08/$1
096.2007	11	La Croix Valmer	10/1	Beschizza A	Stidham Michael	W	16	62.50	2.08/$1
095.5968	4	A Kitten for Katie	5/1	Gaffalione T	Maker Michael J.	JT	31	51.61	1.48/$1
094.8920	3	Teller to Sing	5/1	Morales E	Howard Neil J.	C	16	62.50	2.08/$1
094.8915	2	Conoloway	9/2	Murrill M	Flint Bernard S.		16	62.50	2.08/$1
094.4308	9	English	20/1	Cannon D	Thurman Rhonda		16	62.50	2.08/$1
092.4283	1	Demora	8/1	Carroll D	Jurado Luis A.		16	62.50	2.08/$1
091.8764	12	Imbued	20/1	Cannon D	Langemeier John L.		16	62.50	2.08/$1
091.6902	7	Twitterpated	6/1	Lanerie C J	Tomlinson Michael A.		16	62.50	2.08/$1
090.2897	6	Colonel Aby B	15/1	Landeros C	Williamson Brian		16	62.50	2.08/$1
090.0457	8	Kiss Mo	15/1	Mena M	Vance David R.		16	62.50	2.08/$1

Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 38.46, ROI 1.31/$1
. . . .
100.0000 5 Treaty of Paris
[Category]Condition
[TurfMdnMClm]NotFirstRaceAfter45DaysOff with
[TurfMdnMClm]LastRaceDistanceIsNotGreaterThanToday
If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, WPC, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	5	Treaty of Paris	5/1	Santana. Jr. R	Asmussen Steven M.	FL	38	42.11	1.58/$1
098.0492	10	Better With Age	4/1	Geroux F	D'Amato Philip		230	26.52	0.85/$1
097.9156	11	La Croix Valmer	10/1	Beschizza A	Stidham Michael	W	230	26.52	0.85/$1
097.7673	4	A Kitten for Katie	5/1	Gaffalione T	Maker Michael J.	JT	156	36.54	1.10/$1
097.5555	3	Teller to Sing	5/1	Morales E	Howard Neil J.	SEC	75	34.67	1.10/$1
096.5891	2	Conoloway	9/2	Murrill M	Flint Bernard S.		45	40.00	1.19/$1
094.4266	7	Twitterpated	6/1	Lanerie C J	Tomlinson Michael A.		112	26.79	1.05/$1
093.8857	9	English	20/1	Cannon D	Thurman Rhonda		45	40.00	1.19/$1
093.4474	12	Imbued	20/1	Cannon D	Langemeier John L.		112	26.79	1.05/$1
093.0432	1	Demora	8/1	Carroll D	Jurado Luis A.		45	40.00	1.19/$1
091.8351	8	Kiss Mo	15/1	Mena M	Vance David R.		230	26.52	0.85/$1
090.1958	6	Colonel Aby B	15/1	Landeros C	Williamson Brian		45	40.00	1.19/$1

Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 31.03, ROI 0.93/$1
. . . .
100.0000 5 Treaty of Paris
[Category]Condition
[DirtMdnMClm]LastRaceWeightIsGreaterThanToday