Thursday 11/5/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 369858

    #1

    Thursday 11/5/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

    Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

    NFL
    http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 369858

    #2
    Al Cimaglia:

    November 5, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia

    Race 4

    2-
    3-
    9-

    Race 5

    1-
    3-
    4-
    6-
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    Comment

    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 369858

      #3
      Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks


      Charles Town - Race #2
      #6 El Sangru Aqu invader has been facing eons better, and while being eased last time is no great shakes, he's been working well here; can surprise.
      #1 Ragtime Cowboy Joe MSW dropper will be bet hard but hasn't threatened the winner in three straight, and that last no-show wasn't pretty; backwheel time.
      #2 Goofy Boy Stalker has had his chances and is now 0-for-11, so while he fits on paper, he usually finds one or two better; using underneath only.
      Race Summary Make sure you get some value on the 6, since he has some serious questions attached, but if he's close to that 8-1 ML you can give him a look in all the slots, and in the early Pk4 as well, since he's the class here, and if he can find his best, the rest of these are in deep, deep water.
      Charles Town - Race #4
      #2 Cruz in the Castle MSW dropper was showing speed at that level too, which can be potent when they get some relief, as this is the biggest drop in racing; look out.
      #2 Cheese Louise The chalk dueled with the pick last time and beat her 1 1/2 lengths, but she doesn't have the upside, will be overbet, and drew poorly; trying to beat.
      #1 Whose That Lady Logical sort was just a 3rd at the level, and with the top two showing some speed, she'll trip out, though she may still be outclassed; mixed signals.
      Race Summary The price will be right on the 2, and the drop in class will be too, and she still has some upside as well, so play her in all the slots, and especially to end the early Pk4,and kick off the Pk5 as well, as value abounds, and a win might play longer than her post odds indicate.
      Charles Town - Race #7
      #1 Dean Verdile FL invader has some speed and a hint of a rating gear too, has been in very sharp form of late, and won't be favored; love his chances here.
      #3 Spokane Eagle The chalk didn't run an inch on turf but has the best dirt form, though he's no longer with Pino (19%), and Jones (8%) isn't as sharp; not sold on.
      #6 Union Grace Class dropper did well to draw outside the speed and should offer value, but he's another who isn't in as sharp a barn anyone; underneath only.
      Race Summary That 4-1 ML on the pick seems mighty juicy, as there's not much here and he has been firing right along, so play him aggressively to win and place, and key him in the Pk5, and late Pk4 as well, as he looks primed against a group of locals there for the taking.
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      Comment

      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 369858

        #4
        Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks


        Laurel Park - Race #3
        #2 Met in Miami Just missed in the career debut, and she can probably prove a bit more tactical today while working with some added ground.
        #4 Guns Blazing Spying type caught a nice winner last out, but she took a good step forward in that second start and is competitive here with any additional improvement.
        #3 Cajole Showed a touch of talent in the debut run behind a runaway winner before taking a big step back around two turns last out. Interesting here at a better price.
        Race Summary Met in Miami looks tough with these, but I wouldn't want to take too short a price there with a couple other perfectly capable runners listed above, too.
        Laurel Park - Race #4
        #10 Little Lion Girl She was just 14-1 with Maryland-bred stakes company on the lawn, so not sure she's offering the 12/1 ML price here with this allowance bunch, but her two turf tries stack up well.
        #8 Gale Tough call. She steps up off two really nice efforts on the turf, including that blowout win last out, but she's almost surely overbet while taking on a better group today.
        #9 My Candy Girl Has put things together since adding blinkers for the new connections, but this is a deeper spot than she has seen of late, and she may not offer a fair price.
        Race Summary Little Lion Girl would be playable at something shorter than her 12/1 ML price, as she has turned in two decent turf races in her short career and now goes third off the long layoff.
        Laurel Park - Race #7
        #3 Amanite Won easily in the maiden score locally going on turn on the main, so the move back to the main track isn't a big worry after a couple of turf tries.
        #1 Bobby's Goldengirl Forward player will have to work out a trip from the rail but her recent form stacks up nicely with these. Underlay?
        #2 Sarah's Treasure Recent form is dreadful, but she's not too far removed from some tries that might land her a piece underneath with this bunch.
        Race Summary Amanite can get the right kind of spying trip with these, and she is capable of something better than what she has shown in those last two starts.
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        Comment

        • Can'tPickAWinner
          Super Moderator
          • Nov 2012
          • 369858

          #5
          Frank Carulli's Daily Picks


          Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #1
          #7 MYIDEALSON N Better than latest looks on paper, steps up, taken to repeat.
          #1 AN THE THUNDEROLLS Can make good use of his speed from the rail for new connections.
          #2 DUCKIES DYNASTY Took money, loomed off dueling leaders, settled for third.
          Race Summary Myidealson N wore down the odds-on favorite, then held off trip-sitting Duckies Dynasty, earning a playback on the class rise. Play a 1-2-7 exacta box.
          Dover Downs - Race #3
          #3 WHATS HIS IS MINE Winless awhile but projects good trip for 24-percent barn.
          #4 NORTHWEST YANKEE Even-paced against better, has best numbers, one to beat.
          #8 SKYWAY GLADIATOR Rode rail throughout, got up for second behind 1-to-5 winner.
          Race Summary Whats His Is Mine, first or second in 16 of 37 starts since 2019, chased the favorite around the track two starts back at Harrington and figures close-up in this field. Play 3-2, 3-4 and 3-8 exactas.
          Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1
          #6 ZARCONIA SEELSTER Rallied wide after pace slowed against many of same rivals.
          #2 ROBOMOTION BLUECHIP Tracked the faves in third, angled out, lacked late kick.
          #7 KIT Parlayed pocket trip into first victory in 18 starts this year.
          Race Summary Zarconia Seelster rallied into a slow 1:00.3 middle half and gobbled up ground on pocket-sitting winner Kit and pace-controller Kounnis while 4-wide in the stretch. The race could play out the same way, but at least she offers betting value. Play 6-2 and 6-7 exactas.
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          Comment

          • Can'tPickAWinner
            Super Moderator
            • Nov 2012
            • 369858

            #6
            Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks


            Gulfstream Park West - Race #3
            #5 Simple Story Was fourth in a tougher sprint over this track last time in his first off the claim for Delgado and is bred to run long on the front end.
            #1 Beasaichi Drops in price after a second-place finish, stretches out to two turns and should be part of the pace.
            #7 Matraca Had mild closing moves in sprints and could enjoy the additional distance here under Lopez.
            Race Summary Simply Story likely will take command and should be able to stretch her speed out to the mile distance.
            Gulfstream Park West - Race #6
            #3 Cat's Astray Caught an off-the-turf sprint last time and went gate to wire; has good turf races to her credit and fits nicely here.
            #5 Sanity Closed well for second at Monmouth and has been in good races; was a winner at Belmont three races back.
            #6 Allende Ran off to long leads in both starts and lasted in her latest; takes her first chance at the turf and has the speed to be a factor.
            Race Summary Cat's Astray can run on turf and dirt and will stay in if this comes off the grass, much like she did with success last time.
            Gulfstream Park West - Race #7
            #1 Glory of Florida Was a well-beaten third last time and takes a drop in claiming price; has done some good on this circuit and should be the one to outrun.
            #2 Turn On the Magic Tired in a stakes race last out and has the speed to be in the mix from the outset.
            #6 Prince James Improved position to second last out and a similar effort here will make a serious player in the run to the wire.
            Race Summary Glory of Florida has the experience and class to be effective in this spot; rates the edge against these mostly younger rivals.
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            Comment

            • Can'tPickAWinner
              Super Moderator
              • Nov 2012
              • 369858

              #7
              Nick Borrman

              Event: Jordan Spieth at Cameron Davis

              Sport/League: GLF

              Date/Time: November 5, 2020 7AM EST

              Play: Cameron Davis -105

              Houston Open

              Tournament Matchup

              Each week should just be as simple as fade Spieth in a Tournament Matchup play and don't even think about it. The former World #1 has been in a free fall for quite some time now. His biggest downfall has been Off the Tee where he ranked #165 on Tour last year and so far this season has not shown any sort of improvement at #218 while also coming in at #233 in Approach.

              In his last five starts, he has all three cuts in which there was a cut as his last two starts at The CJ Cup and The Zozo Championship were limited field events, but he most likely would have missed the cut had there have been one. He also finished in the bottom 6 of those that made the cut in two starts before his last five.

              Cameron Davis has been consistent as of late, making seven straight cuts including three Top 15's. So far this season he ranks #33 on Tour in SG Off the Tee, #42 in Total SG, #45 in scoring avg while ranking #21 in Distance

              TAKE CAMERON DAVIS OVER JORDAN SPIETH
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              Comment

              • Can'tPickAWinner
                Super Moderator
                • Nov 2012
                • 369858

                #8
                Kevin Dolan

                Event: (224473) Maccabi Tel Aviv at (224474) Villarreal

                Sport/League: SOC

                Date/Time: November 5, 2020 3PM EST

                Play: Total Under 2.75 (-105)

                PLAY: UNDER 2.75
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                Comment

                • Can'tPickAWinner
                  Super Moderator
                  • Nov 2012
                  • 369858

                  #9
                  Betting Recap - Week 8
                  Joe Williams

                  Overall Notes



                  The largest underdogs to win straight up

                  Bengals (+7, ML +260) vs. Titans, 31-20
                  Vikings (+6, ML +220) at Packers, 28-22
                  Steelers (+4, ML +175) at Ravens, 28-24
                  Dolphins (+3.5, ML +155) vs. Rams, 28-17
                  Broncos (+3, ML +130) vs. Chargers, 31-30

                  The largest favorites to cover

                  Chiefs (-19.5) vs. Jets, 35-9
                  Eagles (-10) vs. Cowboys, 23-9
                  Colts (-3.5) at Lions, 41-21

                  The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

                  The Los Angeles Chargers-Denver Broncos AFC West rivalry has had some amazing finishes over the years. The first installment of this season's series surely didn't disappoint...unless you were holding a Chargers (-3) ticket or a moneyline wager.

                  QB Justin Herbert and the Chargers fired out to a 24-3 lead midway through the third quarter before Broncos RB Phillip Lindsay galloped for a 55-yard touchdown run to slice the lead to 24-10. Still, anyone backing the Bolts, was feeling pretty good. That Lindsay TD certainly changed the day almost immediately for 'under' (44.5) bettors. It got much worse for the latter - quick.

                  In the fourth quarter, the Broncos sliced the lead to 24-17 with a nine-yard touchdown pass from QB Drew Lock to TE Albert Okwuegbunam. The Chargers answered back with a field goal with 7:57 to go, making it 27-17. Under bettors couldn't allow another point, but that was quickly dashed just 27 seconds later when Lock hit WR DaeSean Hamilton for a 40-yard scoring strike. Suddenly, Bolts side bettors were feeling the pinch, too. PK Michael Badgley booted a 33-yard field with 2:30 left in regulation to give Chargers side bettors hope. However, rookie WR KJ Hamler reeled in a 1-yard scoring strike from Lock with zeroes on the clock, and the extra point won it for Denver, 31-30. The only time Denver had been ahead was 3-0. Moneyline bettors and side bettors are feeling awfully sick after this one.

                  The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

                  The San Francisco 49ers-Seattle Seahawks game was well decided by the end of the third quarter. The Seahawks (-1) were leading 27-7 after 45 minutes, and it appeared side bettors were going to cruise to a winning ticket. The Seahawks added a field goal to go up 30-7 with 14:07 to go in the fourth quarter. However, a pair of touchdowns cut the lead to 30-20 with 4:16 left in regulation. RB DeeJay Dallas punched in a 1-yard touchdown to make it 37-20, putting side bettors minds at ease. However, that touchdown ended up pushing the total 'over' (54.5). The game ended up with a total of 64 points, but there was 30 total points in the final 14:07.

                  Total Recall

                  The lowest totals on the board on the Sunday slate were the New England Patriots-Buffalo Bills (41) and the New Orleans Saints-Chicago Bears (41) contests.

                  The Patriots-Bills game had a total of just 13 points on the board at halftime, and the 'under' was easily trending after 30 minutes. There were a total of just 20 points on the board until a touchdown and two-point conversion by the Pats with 3:03 to go in the third quarter to make it 14-14. A pair of two-yard touchdown runs by each of the quarterbacks made it a 21-21 game, and barring overtime, and a scoreless one at that, the 'over' was in the bag. And a PK Tyler Bass 28-yard field goal with 4:06 left in regulation gave the home side the 24-21 win. No overtime needed.

                  The Saints-Bears matchup was a field goal fest through 45 minutes. We had just two total touchdowns on the board with five field goals through 45 minutes, as the Saints clinged to a 16-13 lead. 'Under' bettors were hanging on, with New Orleans leading 23-13 with just under four minutes to go. But QB Nick Foles hit WR Darnell Mooney on a 3-yard scoring strike to make it 23-20. That was all total bettors needed to see.

                  The highest number on the board was the 49ers-Seahawks game (54.5), and we touched on how that one ended up above. We also had three games with a total of 49. The Indianapolis Colts-Detroit Lions, New York Jets-Kansas City Chiefs and Tennessee Titans-Cincinnati Bengals saw the 'over' cash in two of those three outings. The Chiefs did their part to hit the 'over', scoring 35 points, but the Jets could muster just nine total points in the loss.

                  In the first two primetime games of Week 8, the under went 2-0, with the Monday night game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New York Giants pending. The Atlanta Falcons-Carolina Panthers (52) gave was on pace for an 'over' result, with 30 points on the board at half time. But we saw two field goals and a touchdown with a failed two-point conversion in the final 30 minutes, and that was all. The Dallas Cowboys-Philadelphia Eagles (43) Sunday night affair looked more like a preseason game. It was ugly. Third-string QB Ben DiNucci made his first NFL start in place of the injured QBs Dak Prescott and Andy Dalton, and the visitors actually held a 9-7 lead at halftime. It was all Philly in the final 30, scoring a touchdown, two-point conversion, a touchdown and missed two-point conversion and a safety, while the Cowboys were blanked. Philadelphia won it 23-9, and the 'over' was never threatened at any point.

                  So far this season the under is 16-9 (64.0%) across 25 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

                  Looking Ahead to Week 9

                  Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)


                  The Packers are licking their wounds after a 28-22 at home against the Vikings, head coach Matt LaFleur's first loss in the NFC North Division since taking over before the 2019 season (8-1). Now, it's a quick turnaround for QB Aaron Rodgers and the boys, and they might be catching a break. While the 49ers had a spirited comeback in Seattle, it might have come with a cost. QB Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle) limped to the locker room early in the fourth quarter, replaced by QB Nick Mullens, while the team also saw RB Tevin Coleman, WR Dante Pettis and TE George Kittle leave the game for good. It's uncertain how much the lopsided score at the time played in their leaving, whether it was a precaution with a lopsided score and quick turnaround, or if the injuries are serious. The Niners are a difficult bunch to figure, as they won as home 'dogs against the Rams in Week 7, but lost as home favorites against the Eagles and Dolphins in Weeks 4-5.They're 1-3 SU/ATS in four games at Levi's Stadium, including 0-3 ATS as a home favorite. The Packers are 3-1 SU/ATS in four games on the road this season.

                  New York Giants at Washington Football Team (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

                  The Giants picked up their only victory of the season in a 20-19 win over the Washington Football Team in Week 6 as two-point favorites, failing to cover. The 'under' hit in that one, and is 5-2 in seven games overall for Big Blue. For Washington, they had their most complete game of the season before the bye, roughing up the Dallas Cowboys by a 25-3 score in Week 7 as a one-point underdog. The 'under' hit in that one, too, and is a perfect 3-0 for Washington over the past three.

                  Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)

                  The Raiders won 16-6 in the wind and occasional snow on the shores of Lake Erie in Cleveland, hitting a rare 'under' result. The Raiders were the only team in the AFC yet to see an under, going 5-0-1 prior to Sunday. It's uncertain what happened to the Chargers defense, but it's not good. After a 3-0 'under' run to start the season, with the offense averaging 17.3 PPG and the defense allowing 19.0 PPG, we have seen the offense score 31, 27, 39 and 30 across the past four, while allowing 38, 30, 29 and 31. It's like a tale of two seasons for the Chargers. Herbert and the offense is growing into a formidable force, but the defense suddenly doesn't feel it has to be perfect and has been way more giving.

                  New England Patriots at New York Jets (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

                  The Patriots head into this Monday night affair with a 2-5 SU record. That's shocking, as they are now 3 1/2 games back of the first-place Bills, who just edged them 24-21 in Week 8 in windy Buffalo. QB Cam Newton was a little better, but still not good enough, and now the heat will get turned up even more on his seat. Some fans are calling for QB Jarrett Stidham to get the starting nod for the MNF game, and what better place than facing the lowly Jets. On a positive note, the Patriots did cover for the first time since Sept. 28, snapping an 0-3 ATS skid. And the 'over' result against the Bills also pumped the brakes on a 3-0 'under' run. The winless Jets were 19.5-point underdogs on the road against the Chiefs, but they hung in there, down just 21-9 at halftime, and 28-9 after three quarters. But they were unable to hang on for the cover. The 'under' did connect for the fourth straight game for Gang Green, as they have scored 10, 0, 10 and 9 across the past four games, or an average of 7.3 PPG.
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                  Comment

                  • Can'tPickAWinner
                    Super Moderator
                    • Nov 2012
                    • 369858

                    #10
                    NFL odds Week 9: Opening lines, sharp money & line movement
                    Patrick Everson

                    Drew Brees and the Saints barely escaped Chicago with a 26-23 overtime victory against the Bears. Next up for New Orleans is a trip to Tampa Bay, where The SuperBook has the Buccaneers -4.5.

                    NFL Week 8 is just about in the rearview mirror, with NFL Week 9 odds on the betting board and already getting some action. The Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers collide under the Thursday night lights, and the Sunday nighter pits the New Orleans Saints against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

                    The SuperBook at Westgate's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 9 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting.

                    NFL Week 9 odds

                    These are the current NFL Week 9 odds, as of November 1.



                    Teams on bye: Los Angeles Rams, Philadelphia Eagles, Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals

                    Packers at 49ers odds
                    Opening line
                    49ers +2.5, Over/Under 50.5

                    Why the line moved
                    "We opened Packers -2.5 and are still there," Murray said Sunday night. "The public will be all over the Packers here. They’ll fall in love with the cheap road favorite, especially after seeing the 49ers get rolled today." Indeed, San Francisco went to Seattle as a 1-point underdog and trailed 30-7 in the fourth quarter, though the Niners rallied to make it respectable in a 37-27 loss.
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                    • Can'tPickAWinner
                      Super Moderator
                      • Nov 2012
                      • 369858

                      #11
                      Hot & Not Report - Week 9
                      Matt Blunt

                      NFL Week 9 Betting Angles

                      Fading NFL teams before a Thursday Night Football game is the gift that just keeps on giving, as both the Packers and 49ers fell rather easily this past week to the Vikings and Seahawks respectively.

                      Fading these teams pre-TNF on the outright money line is now 12-2 SU (85.7%) thanks to those wins by Minnesota and Seattle, and next up this week it calls for outright plays against the Colts and Titans, who are slated for a TNF game in Week 10.

                      And one more thing before I forget to comment on the Seahawks, as they benefited from being on the right side of that angle thanks to their defense actually deciding to play some defense for the first three quarters of that win.

                      Quarterback Russell Wilson continues to be the favorite for the MVP award as he and wide receiver DK Metcalf continue to carry this team, Seattle fans might want to tell Metcalf he might not want to campaign so hard for Wilson to win the league's Most Valuable Player award this season.

                      The NFL has not seen a league MVP go on to win the Super Bowl in their MVP season this century (20 years), as the last to do it was Kurt Warner with the Rams in 1999. Individual awards are always nice, but the goal every year is to hoist that Lombardi Trophy and working against that type of history is quite the uphill climb.

                      (Also, if you do believe Wilson will win the MVP this year, Seattle futures tickets may not be the best idea right now).

                      This week the hot and cold streaks shift to non-conference affairs as there are six of them on tap in Week 9 and there are some interesting runs going on in these AFC/NFC games. Heck, we've even got the Seattle Seahawks involved in one of them as well.

                      Let's get to it:

                      Who's Hot

                      Since the start of Week 4, road teams in non-conference games are 13-4 SU and 13-3-1 ATS


                      This is something I sat on last week as there were only two non-conference games on the slate, and road teams ended up going 1-1 SU and ATS with the Colts winning in Detroit, and the Rams losing in Miami.

                      But Week 7 saw all three road teams in non-conference games get the SU and ATS money (Green Bay over Houston, Tampa over Las Vegas, and SF over New England) as it just continued on down the path it had started weeks prior.

                      It is interesting to note that the LA Chargers have had a unique role in this non-conference run, as they covered the spread in both of their opportunities – vs Tampa Bay and New Orleans – and had they not done Chargers things in those games, the SU record could actually be much better for road teams here.

                      Who Do You Follow?

                      Broncos
                      Seahawks
                      Panthers
                      Bears
                      Dolphins
                      Steelers

                      Week 9 brings us the following non-conference games: Denver (+4) at Atlanta, Seattle (-2.5) at Buffalo, Carolina (+12) at Kansas City, Chicago (+6) at Tennessee, Miami (+4.5) at Arizona, and Pittsburgh (no line) at Dallas.

                      Among those contests are some interesting betting opportunities, as once again in these Hot/Not pieces we've found yet another reason to fade the Dallas Cowboys. I got up on Monday morning actually a little baffled at all the negative reaction to that Cowboys/Eagles game on SNF for how bad it was.

                      It wasn't the fact that the game turned out to be awful that was baffling, it was the fact that everyone complaining about it being a garbage dump of a game couldn't see it coming beforehand. I tried to warn you all about it in my SNF preview, but to each his own.

                      Who knows how high that line for the Steelers – the league's last remaining unbeaten – gets against the Cowboys this week, but if bettors needed yet another reason to fade what's going on in Jerry World, this would be it.

                      Having Carolina and Atlanta involved in two non-conference games off their TNF game is interesting as well given they do have the extra rest angle in their favor. Following this run would suggest backing the Panthers and going against the Falcons, but in both cases it's always better to do a lot more digging before you settle in on any play.

                      In terms of favorites/underdogs, there isn't as big of a discrepancy as the road/home splits for these recent non-conference games, as underdogs are 9-7-1 ATS against the closing line in that span.

                      Just another thing to keep in mind if there is some hesitance to back the Seahawks or Steelers simply because they are the favorites.

                      Who's Not

                      Expecting lower point totals in these non-conference games; Since the start of Week 4, non-conference games have averaged 55.29 points per game


                      Outlining things this way helps differentiate from the overall O/U record which sits at 10-7 O/U for the 17 non-conference games during this time.

                      Some of those 'unders' did stay low by the hook or a single point though, which makes the fact that the average point total in these games much more actionable.

                      Furthermore, only two of those 17 games finished with less than 45 total points scored, as they were the Colts/Bears game (30 total points) and Cardinals/Jets game (40 total points) in recent weeks.

                      The offenses the Jets and Bears possess right now are so bad that taking any 'over' with them is tough to begin with.

                      Chicago is involved again in this scenario this week, but they do face a Titans team that gives up 61.86% 3rd down conversion rate this year (a league worst this year and one of the worst numbers we've seen in decades), so who knows, maybe Chicago's offense ends up looking competent this week.

                      But with 15 of the 17 recent AFC/NFC games seeing at least 45 combined points, and 11 of the 17 games finishing with at least 54 points, it's this average of 55.29 points per game that could be critical this week.

                      Not one total in the five non-conference games with a line posted have a total currently listed higher than 53.5 (Seattle/Buffalo), and prior to the Miami/Arizona game coming off the board here, three of the five games had posted totals still in the 40's.

                      Now pairing up these two runs (road teams + high scoring games) to look at going 'over' the team totals of these road squads is something I didn't look at specifically, but it goes to reason that going that route would make a lot of sense.

                      So if you are looking for 'overs' in Week 9, in any form, it would make some sense to start with these non-conference games first to see what else you can find.

                      Play the Over Where?

                      Denver-Atlanta (50)
                      Seattle-Buffalo (54.5)
                      Carolina-Kansas City (52.5)
                      Chicago-Tennessee (46.5)
                      Miami-Arizona (48)
                      Pittsburgh-Dallas (NA)
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                      Comment

                      • Can'tPickAWinner
                        Super Moderator
                        • Nov 2012
                        • 369858

                        #12
                        301GREEN BAY -302 SAN FRANCISCO
                        SAN FRANCISCO is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) against teams who force 0.75 or less turnovers/game on the season since 1992.
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                        • Can'tPickAWinner
                          Super Moderator
                          • Nov 2012
                          • 369858

                          #13
                          NFL
                          Dunkel

                          Week 9


                          Thursday, November 5

                          Green Bay @ San Francisco


                          Game 301-302
                          November 5, 2020 @ 8:20 pm

                          Dunkel Rating:
                          Green Bay
                          137.383
                          San Francisco
                          128.451
                          Dunkel Team:
                          Dunkel Line:
                          Dunkel Total:
                          Green Bay
                          by 9
                          54
                          Vegas Team:
                          Vegas Line:
                          Vegas Total:
                          Green Bay
                          by 2 1/2
                          51
                          Dunkel Pick:
                          Green Bay
                          (-2 1/2); Under
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                          • Can'tPickAWinner
                            Super Moderator
                            • Nov 2012
                            • 369858

                            #14
                            NFL
                            Long Sheet

                            Week 9


                            Thursday, November 5

                            --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                            GREEN BAY (5 - 2) at SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 4) - 11/5/2020, 8:20 PM
                            Top Trends for this game.
                            GREEN BAY is 202-148 ATS (+39.2 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

                            Head-to-Head Series History
                            SAN FRANCISCO is 3-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
                            SAN FRANCISCO is 2-1 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
                            2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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                            • Can'tPickAWinner
                              Super Moderator
                              • Nov 2012
                              • 369858

                              #15
                              NFL

                              Week 9


                              Trend Report

                              Thursday, November 5

                              Green Bay @ San Francisco
                              Green Bay
                              Green Bay is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games
                              Green Bay is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
                              San Francisco
                              San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay
                              San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay
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