Thursday 11/5/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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NFL

Week 9

Packers (5-2) @ San Francisco (4-4)
— Green Bay lost two of last three games, after a 4-0 start.
— Packers scored 30+ points in their wins; 10-22 points in losses.
— Green Bay converted 42-85 third down plays (49.4%)
— Packers are 7-8 ATS in last 15 games as a road favorite.
— Last four Green Bay games stayed under the total.

— Mullens gets start at QB, replacing injured Garoppolo (ankle).
— 49ers allowed 16 or fewer points in their wins, 24-25-43-37 in their losses.
— 49ers lost three of their four home games SU.
— Three of their four home games stayed under the total.
— 49ers are 8-10 ATS in last 18 games as a home underdog.

— 49ers won six of last eight series games; they beat Green Bay 37-20 in LY’s playoffs.
— Packers lost four of last five visits here; they lost 37-8/37-20 here LY.

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49ers’ quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is expected to be sidelined a minimum of six weeks after he sprained his ankle Sunday. Nick Mullens is expected to replace Garoppolo under center for Thursday’s game with Green Bay.

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NFL Week 9 Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson

For the second time this season, 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo will be sidelined by a high ankle sprain, missing Thursday's home game against the Packers and perhaps several more.

NFL Week 8 is in the books, NFL Week 9 odds are on the board, and several betting factors are already in play. That includes the typical injury news, which is actually becoming far too typical for the defending NFC champion San Francisco 49ers.

This week’s NFL Cheat Sheet serves as one-stop shopping for that information and more.

Week 9 Injuries

San Francisco 49ers: Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo aggravated a high ankle sprain in Sunday’s loss at Seattle and could be out several weeks. And tight end George Kittle broke a bone in his foot and is also out several weeks. That’s on top of running backs Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. both on IR with ankle injuries, among other key banged-up players.

The SuperBook at Westgate opened San Fran +2.5 at home against Green Bay in the Thursday night game. But the matchup was taken off the board Monday morning and will go back up once there’s more clarity with both teams, as Green Bay has issues, too.

Green Bay Packers: Backup running back AJ Dillon, who played in Sunday’s home loss to Minnesota, tested positive for COVID-19 and is under the league’s COVID protocol. The Dillon news is what first prompted The SuperBook to take the Packers-Niners game off the board, and then came the aforementioned San Francisco injury news. The game opened Packers -2.5, with a total of 50.5 that moved to 51 Monday morning, before the game was taken down.

Baltimore Ravens: Speaking of COVID, cornerback Marlon Humphrey tested positive Monday after playing in Sunday’s home loss to Pittsburgh. The SuperBook opened the Ravens -2.5 and quickly moved to -3 Sunday evening, while the total went from 45 to 44.5. But this game also came off the board Monday, while the book awaited clarity on Baltimore’s situation.

Arizona Cardinals: The Cards had a bye in Week 8, and over the weekend, linebacker Devon Kennard and cornerback Byron Murphy Jr. tested positive for COVID. So yet another game came off the board Monday at The SuperBook, Arizona’s Sunday matchup against visiting Miami. Prior to that decision, the game opened Cardinals -5.5 and moved to -4.5, while the total was stable at 48.

Los Angeles Chargers: Defensive end Joey Bosa is in concussion protocol after getting injured in Sunday’s loss at Denver, so his status is uncertain for this week’s home game against the Raiders. The Chargers opened -3 and quickly dropped to -1.5, though SuperBook executive director John Murray said that had much more to do with Los Angeles’ fourth-quarter collapse in the loss to Denver.

Detroit Lions: Wideout Kenny Golladay (hip) is expected to miss Sunday’s game at Minnesota. The Lions opened +3.5 and moved to +4 Monday at The SuperBook.


Week 9 Weather

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: The early forecast calls for a 60 percent chance of thunderstorms Sunday in Jacksonville, with winds of 10-20 mph. For the moment, The SuperBook’s total is stable at 51.5.

Carolina Panthers at Kansas City Chiefs: Five days out, the Kansas City forecast calls for a slight chance of rain, but more noteworthy, winds of 15-25 mph. The total, however, is already up to 52.5 from the opener of 51, so keep an eye on this game as the forecast develops.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: There’s a 50/50 shot for rain Sunday in Tampa, Fla., along with winds of 10-20 mph, according to the early-week forecast.

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Tech Trends - Week 9
Bruce Marshall

Week 9 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday, Oct. 29 and we've identified betting trends and angles for all 14 matchups. We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Thursday, Nov. 5

GREEN BAY at SAN FRANCISCO
Niners destroyed Pack in both meetings at Levi’s last season (total score 74-28).
Pack 5-2 vs. line TY, Niners only 1-3 vs. line at home.

Tech Edge: Slight to 49ers, based on recent series trends.

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NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 10

Thursday, November 5

Utah State @ Nevada

Game 307-308
November 5, 2020 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Utah State
65.971
Nevada
84.404
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Nevada
by 18 1/2
59
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Nevada
by 15
55 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Nevada
(-15); Over

Wyoming @ Colorado State

Game 305-306
November 5, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Wyoming
80.596
Colorado State
80.058
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Wyoming
by 1
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Wyoming
by 3 1/2
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Colorado State
(+3 1/2); Under

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305WYOMING -306 COLORADO ST
WYOMING is 25-12 ATS (11.8 Units) after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992.

307UTAH ST -308 NEVADA
UTAH ST is 12-3 ATS (8.7 Units) after going over the total in the last 3 seasons.

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NCAAF
Long Sheet

Thursday, November 5

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WYOMING (1 - 1) at COLORADO ST (0 - 1) - 11/5/2020, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WYOMING is 2-0 against the spread versus COLORADO ST over the last 3 seasons
WYOMING is 2-0 straight up against COLORADO ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UTAH ST (0 - 2) at NEVADA (2 - 0) - 11/5/2020, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH ST is 1-0 against the spread versus NEVADA over the last 3 seasons
UTAH ST is 1-0 straight up against NEVADA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NCAAF

Week 10

Trend Report

Thursday, November 5

Utah State @ Nevada
Utah State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Utah State's last 5 games
Utah State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Nevada
Nevada
Nevada is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Nevada is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Utah State

Wyoming @ Colorado State
Wyoming
Wyoming is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Colorado State
Wyoming is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Colorado State
Colorado State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado State's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Colorado State's last 7 games at home

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NCAAF

Week 10

Thursday’s games

Wyoming (1-1) @ Colorado State (0-1)
— Wyoming split its two games, losing 37-34 in OT at Nevada.
— Cowboys scored 34-31 points in their first two games.
— Wyoming has 7 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— Cowboys have 146 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Wyoming has a freshman QB with two career starts.
— Last two years, Cowboys are 2-0 ATS as a road favorite.

— Colorado State lost its season opener 38-17 in Fresno last week.
— Rams gave up 348 passing yards last week.
— State has 7 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— Rams have 50 returning starts on the offensive line.
— CSU has a senior QB with 9 career starts.
— Since 2016, Rams are 5-3 ATS as a home underdog.

— Wyoming won its last four games with Colorado State.
— Cowboys won 34-21/38-17 in their last two visits to Fort Collins.

Utah State (0-2) @ Nevada (2-0)
— Utah State lost its first two games, giving up 42-38 points.
— Aggies were outgained 1,020-418 in those games.
— Utah State has 8 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— Rams have 81 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Utah State has a junior QB who threw 168 passes for Utah two years ago.
— Last two years, Aggies are 4-3 ATS as a road underdog.

— Nevada won its first two games, scoring 37 points in both games.
— Wolf Pack threw for 770 yards in those games.
— Nevada has 10 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— Wolf Pack has 77 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Nevada has a soph QB with 12 career starts.
— Under Norvell, Wolf Pack is 6-5 ATS as a home favorite.

— Home side won last three series games.
— Utah State (-21) beat Nevada 36-10 at home LY.
— Underdogs are 5-3 ATS in last eight series games.

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Tech Trends - Week 10
Bruce Marshall

Week 10 of the College Football season kicks off on Wednesday, Nov. 4 with MACtion and concludes on Saturday Nov. 7.

We've identified betting trends and angles for key matchups between FBS and FCS matchups.

We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Thursday, Nov. 5

WYOMING at COLORADO STATE (CBSSN, 9:00 p.m.)
Border war!
Advantage Wyoming, as Bohl has won and covered last four meetings.
Cowboys on 8-2 spread run in Laramie after Hawaii win.

Tech Edge: Wyoming, based on team and series trends.

UTAH STATE at NEVADA (FS1, 7:00 p.m.)
Utags sagging, only 4-8 last 12 vs. line since early 2019.
Wolf Pack on 6-2 spread run last 8 vs. MW at Reno.

Tech Edge: Nevada, based on recent trends.

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Home favorites/underdogs in college football conferences:

AAC— 5-9-1 home favorites, 4-4 home underdogs

ACC— 11-10-1 HF, 10-5 HU

Big 14— 3-3 HF, 3-3 HU

Big X— 9-5-1 HF, 4-7 HU

C-USA— 2-12 HF, 3-3 HU

Mountain West— 4-1 HF, 3-3 HU

SEC— 9-8 HF, 10-8 HU

Sun Belt— 7-4 HF, 5-2 HU

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Packers vs. 49ers Week 9 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

Week 9 starts with a NFC Championship rematch game between the Packers and the 49ers, and after getting spanked by San Francisco twice last year, including that NFC title game, the Packers have probably had their eyes on this game for some time now.

Positive memories might not be immediately there for the Packers when they see the Niners sharing the field for them, but there are quite a few things that have broken in Green Bay's favor this week.

Nobody likes to see anyone get hurt, but San Francisco losing QB Jimmy Garoppolo and TE George Kittle has to be viewed as good news for Packers fans, and now with the 49ers having virus issues and shutting down their facility on Wednesday, practice and prep time 24 hours before the game on the San Fran side of things takes a real hit.

Now, uncertainty about when they'll play the game could weigh on the Green Bay side of things too, but after an awful showing on Sunday against Minnesota – especially in trying to stop the run – can the Packers bounce back and take advantage of all these little edges that are seemingly adding up in their favor?

Or will a depleted 49ers team on offense lean even heavier on their rushing attack and find just as much success as the Vikings did running all over Green Bay?

Betting Resources

Week 9 Matchup: NFC vs. NFC
Venue: Levi's Stadium
Location: Santa Clara, California
Date: Thursday, Nov. 5, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: FOX/NFL Network

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers look to avenge a pair of losses to the 49ers from last season. (AP)

Packers-49ers Betting Odds

Spread: Green Bay -5
Money-Line: Green Bay -240, San Francisco +200
Total: 50

2020 Betting Stats

Green Bay

Overall: 5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS, 4-4 O/U
Road: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 2-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 31.3 (Rank 3)
Defense PPG: 26.7 (Rank 20)
Offense YPG: 394.6 (Rank 9)
Defense YPG: 346.6 (Rank 11)

San Francisco

Overall: 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS, 4-4 O/U
Home: 1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS, 1-3 O/U
Offense PPG: 26.0 (Rank 15)
Defense PPG: 21.6 (Rank 10)
Offense YPG: 378.6 (Rank 12)
Defense YPG: 314.6 (Rank 6)

Handicapping the Total

Even before the COVID news dropped in San Francisco on Wednesday, the Niners injury news was still known, and I'm not sure how either side of this total could have been confidently bet.

The 'under' would be the side to look at if you believe the Niners would employ a gameplan that's heavily run-based to keep Rodgers and company off the field, while exploiting that huge weakness in Green Bay's defense right now.

A constant running clock is always a friend to 'under' bettors, and TNF games tend to skew themselves to the low side of the total to begin with.

But to just assume that the Packers run defense will get gashed again as they did vs Minnesota is flawed thinking in it's own right. Think of it from the Packers point of view in that a self scouting session would quickly reveal how poor they've been against the run this year, and knowing the injury situation San Fran has, expecting to face plenty of runs is a pretty reasonable expectation for Green Bay.

That defense could even come up with a gameplan to force QB Nick Mullens to beat them with his arm, and how successful either scenario is for Green Bay is still questionable.

Not to mention, Rodgers could just go off and have a 4 TD game or something like that in the possessions he does get, instantly ruining any 'under' play.

For those looking at the 'over' here, you've got to worry about similar things, as it's just as flawed to strongly believe the Packers defense will figure out how to slow down the opposing running game even when they know it's coming, and if SF is successful at winning the time of possession and bleeding the clock out, even late magic from Aaron Rdogers might not be enough to save an 'over' ticket.

And at the same time, San Fran's defense understands that they are going to have to be the ones to carry the workload here in the coming weeks with the offensive injury situation their team is experiencing.

It's that 49ers defense that DOES HAVE plenty of positive memories from the two meetings a year ago after setting up shop in the Packers backfield on both occasions, and should it be them that has a great game on TNF, this game probably ends up topping out somewhere in the mid-40's.

So it was an easy pass on the total before the 49ers virus issues, and an even easier one now.

Head-to-Head History

Jan. 19, 2020 - San Francisco 37 vs. Green Bay 20, 49ers -8, Over 46.5
Nov. 24, 2019 - San Francisco 37 vs. Green Bay 8, 49ers -3, Under 48
Oct. 15, 2018 - Green Bay 33 vs. San Francisco 30, 49ers +9.5, Over 46.5

Handicapping the Side

The side was the angle I had already been eyeing before Wednesday's news, and it was going to be the Packers or nothing. Now, even with it going to be a highly popular play on a very public team, it's still the Packers or nothing on the spread for me.

Part of that has to do with Green Bay's ability to bounce back of a loss – especially one where they looked as lousy as they did vs Minnesota – as they are on a 6-0 ATS run when coming off an outright loss dating back to late in the 2018-19 season. That scenario was already a strong “play on” spot for the Packers and it's getting hard to ignore.

Then you've got the whole revenge angle from the NFC Championship loss, as well as the even uglier loss in the regular season to this Niners team a year ago. That can't be overlooked either, and in hindsight, the idea that Green Bay was so flat and out of sync against Minnesota last week, could be somewhat attributed to looking ahead to this game.

Remember, they didn't know at the time that Garoppolo or Kittle wouldn't be playing, and getting one over on the team that ended their season last year is a professional pride thing that's got to be considered with all professional athletes.

And then there is the COVID situation now with the Niners, who may or not see more key players affected. That's not the only negative though, as now pre-game walkthroughs and practice time 24 hours before the game have now been squashed, and that's pretty important for a team that's working in replacements at key positions that would prefer to get all the practice snaps in that they can.

Add it all up and this is one situation where siding with the likely consensus on the Packers is really the only way I believe you can confidently put your money on in this game.

Who knows, the fact that Green Bay was such a huge public play last week and burned everyone may have some of those same bettors a little hesitant to join the chalk fest with the Packers here, especially after how bad they looked against Minnesota.

It's still Green Bay so it probably won't dissuade a large number of bettors, but laying the points with the visitors here makes too much sense on multiple fronts.

Key Injuries

Green Bay

OT David Bakhtiari: Chest - Questionable
S Raven Greene: Oblique - Questionable
RB Aaron Jones: Calf - Questionable
CB Kevin King: Quadriceps - Out
S Will Redmond: Shoulder - Out
S Vernon Scott: Shoulder - Out
OT Rick Wagner: Knee - Questionable

San Francisco

WR Deebo Samuel: Quarantine/COVID - Out
OT Trent Williams: Quarantine/COVID - Out
WR Brandon Aiyuk: Quarantine/COVID - Out
RB Tevin Coleman: Knee - Out
LB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles: Hamstring - Out
QB Jimmy Garoppolo: Ankle - Out
WR Richie James: Ankle - Questionable
TE George Kittle: Foot - Out
WR Deebo Samuel: Hamstring - Out
S Jaquiski Tartt: Groin - Questionable

2020 Thursday Night Football (TNF) Betting Results

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS)

Home-Away: 4-3 SU, 2-5 ATS
Favorites-Underdogs: 3-4 SU, 1-6 ATS
Over-Under: 3-4

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Bobby Conn

Nov 05 '20, 12:55 PM in 1h
Soccer | OGC Nice vs Slavia Praha
Play on: Slavia Praha +152 at BMaker

1* Free Play on Slavia Praha +152

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Indiana Downs

Indiana Downs - Race 9	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 9-10-11)
Claiming $7,500 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 73 • Purse: $12,000 • Post: 6:05P
FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES IN 2020 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 5 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. FIRST LADY MAGGIE is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * FIRST LADY MAGGIE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the d istance/surface. CHRISTIAN MISS: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. APRON STRINGS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
7	FIRST LADY MAGGIE	1/1	3/1
6	CHRISTIAN MISS	6/1	4/1
4	APRON STRINGS	10/1	6/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	FIRST LADY MAGGIE	7	1/1	Front-runner	84	73	86.8	70.4	65.9
6	CHRISTIAN MISS	6	6/1	Front-runner	77	80	86.0	64.4	59.4
4	APRON STRINGS	4	10/1	Alternator/Front-runner	72	74	67.2	64.2	56.2
1	BOLD CONCEPT	1	7/2	Trailer	70	52	42.0	52.2	41.2
5	WANNA HAVE FUN	5	8/1	Trailer	69	57	34.0	56.6	49.6
8	MISS TIZCAT	8	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	69	36	71.8	43.2	32.2
3	PAIGE'S STAR	3	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	70	62	47.8	44.0	30.5
2	QUITE A BABE	2	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	70	65	38.0	53.8	43.8

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Evangeline Downs

Evangeline Downs - Race 7	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9)
Maiden • 400 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 70 • Purse: $14,000 • Post: 8:05P
QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * HESMAKEINGATOAST: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. BELLAS DIAMONDS: Horse ranks in t he top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. MS CRUZIN FAST: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse rank s in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. CHANGING THE GAME: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
8	HESMAKEINGATOAST	9/2	5/1
3	BELLAS DIAMONDS	3/1	5/1
2	MS CRUZIN FAST	15/1	8/1
10	CHANGING THE GAME	15/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	GT IS EARLS LEGACY	1	5/1	Slow/Trouble-prone	0	0	8.8	0.0	0.0
2	MS CRUZIN FAST	2	15/1	Slow	73	53	6.1	0.0	0.0
3	BELLAS DIAMONDS	3	3/1	Average/Trouble-prone	79	62	5.7	0.0	0.0
4	MJ CASH TRAIN	4	15/1	Slow/Trouble-prone	0	0	7.3	0.0	0.0
5	HIGHEST ACHIEVEMENTS	5	6/1	Average	67	55	4.9	0.0	0.0
6	WILD BLUE CANDY	6	8/1	Slow/Trouble-prone	0	0	7.3	0.0	0.0
7	DASHINUNDERABLUEMOON	7	10/1	Slow	0	0	6.8	0.0	0.0
8	HESMAKEINGATOAST	8	9/2	Average	74	61	6.0	0.0	0.0
9	ROCKET DASH WRANGLER	9	5/1	Slow	51	39	7.7	0.0	0.0
10	CHANGING THE GAME	10	15/1	Slow	73	52	6.5	0.0	0.0