Saturday 11/7/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joseph D'Amico

Nov 07 '20, 7:30 PM in 9h
NCAA-F | Rutgers vs Ohio State
Play on: Ohio State -37½ -109 at GTBets

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Saturday’s FREE NCAAF WINNER: OHIO STATE
Game 342.
4:30 pm pst
If this were a normal season, I would question the size of this line. But, I think we would all agree that there is absolutely nothing normal about anything in 2020. 3rd ranked Ohio State, if they run up the score here, have a real opportunity to possibly climb in the polls if Clemson (which faces Notre Dame today with a start time of 7:00 pm est, 30 minutes before kickoff of this game) loses. It seems, not only do top teams need wins this season, but I feel style points are going to play a role in the rankings. Laying 28 and 10 points against the likes of Nebraska and Penn State and covering both contests tells us just how focused Ohio State head coach, Ryan Day has his team.
After besting Michigan State 38-27 in their season-opener, Rutgers came back down to Earth last week failing to cover as a double-digit ‘dog to Indiana, 37-21. Look for Buckeyes quarterback, Justin Fields (594 yards passing, 87.3% completion rate, 6/0) to dissect the Scarlet Knights secondary with his arsenal of receivers. But that isn’t the biggest disparity here. The difference in the trenches is significant. Football is won in the trenches. And as far as top college football teams go, Ohio State is pretty darn talented on both sides of the line of scrimmage. They will absolutely manhandle Rutgers linemen. Trust me when I tell you, they are well aware of what how Rutgers stunned MSU and will take no chances here.
If you are worried about the point spread, FYI, Ohio State has won the last six meetings (5-1 ATS) by an average score of 55-8.
Rutgers is 3-8 ATS the last 11 in conference play. OSU is 6-1 ATS the last seven as a home fav. Take Ohio State. Thank you.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny Walker

Nov 07 '20, 10:30 PM in 12h
NCAA-F | Washington State vs Oregon State
Play on: Oregon State -3 -107 at pinnacle

Free Pick on Oregon State

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

(Sat) NCAAF USC
(Sat) NCAAF Iowa
(Sat) NCAAF Florida
(Sat) NCAAF Notre Dame
(Sat) NCAAF Arkansas

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Prez

Event: (335) North Carolina at (336) Duke
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: November 7, 2020 12PM EST
Play: Total Over 64.0 (-110)
North Carolina scored 41 last weekend versus the VT Hokies. However, Virginia Tech outscored the Heels registering a 44-41 victory. The Tar Heels quarterback Sam Howell threw for 443 yards with four touchdowns in the loss.
The Blue Devils are not a unit that scares opposing defensive coordinators. They scored only 13 points against the Irish in their season opener and just six in a loss to Boston College. Over the last five games, they have averaged over 30-points per contest (vs Virginia, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, NC State, and Charlotte).
Virginia Tech gained 260 yards (4 TDs), Florida State rushed for 241 yards (2 TDs) and Virginia plowed for 210 (3 TDs). When allowing this many rushing yards result in points becoming the standard in UNC events. North Carolina doesn't have a defense that is going to shut down opposing offenses. Not even those that are average in rushing yards per game. Duke runs for 200-plus yards on the ground and turns the ball over three times or more on Saturday. The result is a high scoring event in the Golden Triangle of North Carolina making a Favorable Play to the Over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Cokin

Event: (377) West Virginia at (378) Texas
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: November 7, 2020 12PM EST
Play: West Virginia +6.5 (-110)
This shapes up as a pretty good situational spot with some statistical advantages as well. West Virginia has not gotten the job done in its two road games, losing at Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. But the game with the Cowboys was very competitive, with Oklahoma State scoring a late TD to expand its lead. Against Texas Tech, the Mountaineers looked to be in good shape to get the win but a 4Q fumble that got returned for a TD killed them at Lubbock. Nevertheless, this is a team that seems to be improving and they're off their best game of the season as they smashed Kansas State last week. I think it's worth noting that WVU has won the stats in all six games to date, and I'm generally interested in taking dogs that fit this profile. As for Texas, they're off a somewhat remarkable win at Oklahoma State in which the Longhorns got killed on the stat sheet but benefited tremendously from a +4 turnover margin. I'm just not especially impressed with this Texas team. I'm a big fan of fading favorites off misleading wins, especially in big games, and that's the case for the Longhorns here. I see this game as a tossup that figures pretty close and I'm willing to invest in West Virginia plus the points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marco D'Angelo

Event: (379) Nebraska at (380) Northwestern
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: November 7, 2020 12PM EST
Play: Nebraska +3.5 (-110)
3% NEBRASKA +3.5

Northwestern has the advantage of having two games under their belts compared to Nebraska’s one. ut in Northwestern’s 2 wins they have enjoyed a 7-3 TO margin. Nebraska’s loss to Ohio St really wasn’t as bad as the final score might indicate as 2 TO’s didn’t help the cause and Ohio St punched a meaningless TD in late because the back up QB wasn’t familiar with running Victory formation. Rushing for over 200 yards against Ohio St is impressive and if they have that kind of success against Northwestern it will open up the passing game for QB Martinez. Northwestern was fortunate to beat Iowa who’s offense has struggled so far. In a shortened season dropping to 0-2 to start the season with a loss here and putting Northwestern at 3-0 would basically end any hopes of winning the division For Nebraska. Nebraska having last weeks game cancelled did give them extra time to prepare for Northwestern.

NEBRASKA 31-27

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teddy Covers

Event: (349) Michigan State at (350) Iowa
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: November 7, 2020 12PM EST
Play: Michigan State +6.5 (-110)
Take Michigan State (#349)
Iowa had the single worst offseason of any Big 10 team, dealing with allegations of racism and impropriety from numerous former players against longtime head coach Kirk Ferentz. They’ve opened up the season like a team that can’t get out of their own way, losing a pair of winnable games in the fourth quarter. Reports out of Iowa City mentioned locker room chemistry as an issue early on, and these back-2-back heartbreaking losses; including a big blown lead against Northwestern last week, have only exacerbated the problem. The betting markets are looking at this as a solid Iowa spot – ‘must win’ for the home team after a pair of losses, and a road underdog that could be flat off a huge win over their rivals last week – hence Iowa laying nearly at TD in this ballgame. I’m looking at it in a different way. I want to fade a Hawkeye team that is already 0-2 ATS as favorites in a game they’ll need to win by margin in order to cover the spread. Too many points! Take Michigan State.
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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nick Borrman

Event: Bayern Munich at Dortmund
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: November 7, 2020 12PM EST
Play: Dortmund +0.75 (-120)
Germany Bundesliga
I’ll be the first to admit, going against Bayern is a scary proposition as they are playing so damn well it’s hard not to see them winning every game they play in. But at the same time, Dortmund looks very good right now as well and Erling Haaland may very well be on his way to be the best soccer player on the planet. For now he will have to settle for being the 2nd best player in the field behind Bayern’s Robert Lewandowski, but Haaland has an incredible future ahead of him.
Dortmund lost their opening Champions League group stage game at Lazio but have since won four straight without conceding a goal. Bayern, since their completely surprising 1-4 loss at Hoffenheim, have gotten right back to their winning ways, rallying off nine straight wins including a 3-2 win over Dortmund in the Super Cup.
But Dortmund were missing both Sancho and Reyna in that match and those two compliment Haaland so well that the team is completely different with all three in the lineup, especially Reyna who is turning out to be such an important setup piece for this team. The kid is just 17 years old and is one of America’s brightest soccer stars.
In Bundesliga play right now, Dortmund have the #1 defense in the league according to xGA while ranking 3rd offensively while Bayern is #1 offensively and 5th defensively.
Dortmund vs Bayern
5-0-1 5-0-1
2.03 xG 2.98 xG
0.63 xGA 1.04 xGA
13:2 GD 24:9 GD
TAKE DORTMUND +0.75
Line Parameter: 3% to +0.5 but pay up to -130 to get +0.75

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Ligs

Event: (333) Boston College at (334) Syracuse
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: November 7, 2020 2PM EST
Play: Boston College -14.5 (-110)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Carmine Bianco

Event: (200021) Fulham at (200022) West Ham
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: November 7, 2020 3PM EST
Play: Total Under 2.5 (+100)
EPL - Fulham at West Ham
Quick Synopsis: Premier League action on Saturday and a totals play and Under 2.5 here. West Ham do get a bit of a breather after games against Liverpool, Manchester City, Leicester and Tottenham but while those were offensive minded squads they'll get a Fulham side here desperate for any type of points and off a 2-0 win. They'll likely field a defensive minded midfield and play 8-9 behind the ball on Saturday looking to make it tough on West Ham to break through. The Hammers will be without Michail Antonio and didn't have the same offensive fluidity last time out. While they should get the win here it may take time getting there.
The play is Under 2.5 +100

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dwayne Bryant

Event: (343) Maryland at (344) Penn State
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: November 7, 2020 3PM EST
Play: Maryland +25.0 (-110)
PLAYABLE at +24 or better
BET SIZE --> 3%
Penn State is coming off a loss to Ohio State that put the Nittany Lions at 0-2 on the season. PSU is now a huge home favorite against Maryland. The problem for Penn State is that under head coach James Franklin, PSU is just 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS when coming off a loss to Ohio State. Clearly, losing to the perennial best team in the Big Ten leads to a letdown for Penn State. Despite being an average favorite of 2 TD, the average score in those games was PSU 23.6, Opponents 20.8. Just last season, Penn State lost to Ohio State and followed that with a 3-TD win as a 38.5-point favorite over Rutgers. Also, note that Penn State is 4-0 SU, but 0-3-1 ATS as a conference home favorite of more than 3 TDs.

PLAY MARYLAND.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Merril

Event: (373) Texas Tech at (374) TCU
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: November 7, 2020 3PM EST
Play: TCU -9.5 (-110)
-Texas Tech is just 1-4 SU over their last 5 games, losing those games by 16.8 points per game
-TCU returns home off a road win at Baylor; they lost their last 2 home games; big effort here
-Horned Frogs defense allows 29 points per game vs. offenses that average 35.5 points per game
Play TCU (-).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Leonard

Event: (397) Louisiana Tech at (398) North Texas
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: November 7, 2020 7PM EST
Play: North Texas -2.0 (-110)
398 Louisiana Tech at North Texas
The Bulldogs are off a victory over UAB, but the numbers say it was very fortunate to come away with the victory. LT was outgained by over 100 yards and had a +2 turnover advantage. The Bulldogs running game has been nonexistent as of late putting up yards per play numbers of 1.7, 2.9, 0.3, 2.2 and 2.5 its last five games.
North Texas has become one of the best passing teams in the country. Posting over 300 yards in every game this season. Turnover regression should be in store for the Mean Green here, as on the season they are -7 while Louisiana Tech is +4. Our numbers show that the line is cheap on the host, so we take full advantage.
PLAY NORTH TEXAS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Mejia

Event: (403) Tennessee at (404) Arkansas
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: November 7, 2020 7PM EST
Play: Arkansas +2.0 (-110)
Arkansas QB Feleipe Franks has had an inconsistent career, transferring out of Florida after losing his gig to Kyle Trask, but he'll be able to tell his grandchildren all about terrorizing the University of Tennessee and Vol Nation. The dual-threat quarterback beat UT on a Hail Mary at the Swamp back in 2017 and then accounted for four scores the next season at Neyland stadium in a Gators' blowout win.
Franks is back in a starting position for first-year coach Sam Pittman and the Razorbacks, making just his third home start after a tough loss to Georgia and a strong effort in a win over Ole Miss. He's got plenty of help in receiver Treylon Burks and running backs Rakeem Boyd and Trelon Smith, who should help take advantage of a defense that surrenders a 47 percent first-down conversion rate on third down.
The Vols have dropped three straight, coming off a 48-17 loss to Alabama, which followed up a 34-7 loss to Kentucky and a 44-21 rout at the hands of Georgia. They had their bye last week in addition to a players only meeting and look to replicate last season’s 6-0 finish to 2019 that sparked so much optimism entering this year. Jarett Guarantano has really struggled as a senior quarterback and Arkansas linebackers Bumper Pool and Grant Morgan should match up nicely with Tennessee backs Eric Gray and Ty Chandler. At home, take the two points with Arkansas and expect it to win this SEC matchup outright.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Leonard

Event: (359) Stanford at (360) Oregon
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: November 7, 2020 7PM EST
Play: Stanford +8.0 (-110)
359 Stanford at Oregon
Both teams suffered some key transfers and opt outs in the offseason. Stanford has a long tradition of winning but is coming off a poor 4-8 season. Those type of teams normally bounce back strong the next year.
Oregon is replacing Justin Herbert and key players in the secondary who are now playing in the NFL. The Ducks have a totally new offensive line after key tackle Penel Sewell opted out. New QB with inexperienced blockers makes Oregon a tough team to lay points with. The line has moved down for a reason, and we agree.
PLAY STANFORD