Service Plays Saturday 11/7/20

[WeWantMoehr]

Alan Harris

7 unit: Oregon St -1.5
6 unit: Iowa -6.5

[Lexdeoh20189]

WUNDERDOG CFB PICK:

Game: App State Mountaineers (367) @ Texas State Bobcats (368)
Time: Saturday 11/07 3:00 PM Eastern
Pick: Appalachian State -17.5 (-108) at BetAnySports
Tools: Public Consensus | View Matchups | Bet this game at BetUS

[Iowethe man]

Goodfella

3* Oregon st +3 played on monday like up to -3

Bonus
3* Michigan -3

[golden contender]

Rob V: Saturday Comp Play

Saturday led by 4 big College Football Plays including a Platinum Supreme the Breeders Cup Classic and top Level Soccer plays. Early Comp play below.

The Saturday Comp Play is on Arizona St plus the 11 points at noon eastern. The Sun Devils fit an early game system we have been using specifically this season. Very rare to see USC Playing a home game this early in the day which is a 9am start time out west. The Host team has failed to cover 4 of 5 in the series and Arizona St has covered 4 of 5 as a dog and 5 of 7 here. They play with home loss revenge from last year. Look for Arizona St to cover. On Saturday another huge college football card is up with a Platinum Supreme Headliner and 3 more best bet High level system plays. There is a Solid Soccer card and The Breeders Cup Classic. See us on facebook to Jump on now as we continue to crush Football. For the comp play. Take the 11 points with Arizona St. Rob V- GC Sports.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Barrett Sallee

Best Bets

Here are Barrett Sallee's picks and write-ups for Week 10 (picks made on Nov. 3):

MICHIGAN -3
MICHIGAN @ INDIANA | 11/07 | NOON EST

Everybody seemed to abandon the Michigan ship after the loss to Michigan State, but let's focus more on Indiana. The Hoosiers are 13th in the Big Ten in yards per play at 4.36, and only have six plays of 20 or more yards -- the fewest among Big Ten teams that have played more than one game. As long as Joe Milton and the Wolverines offense doesn't shoot itself in the foot, the Wolverines should be able to take this by at least a touchdown.

Current Line:
Michigan -3
William hill sportsbook

OREGON -10
STANFORD @ OREGON | 11/07 | 7:30 PM EST

Oregon is the new Stanford ... meaning that it thrives with an old-school, smashmouth style. The Ducks just do it out of the spread instead. CJ Verdell is rock solid at running back, the offensive line is monstrous and it is hard to find a reason to think that the Cardinal offense will have success against the Ducks defense.

Current Line:
Oregon -8
William hill sportsbook

UNDER 46
VANDERBILT @ MISS. STATE | 11/07 | 3:30 PM EST

Ok ... let me get this straight ... there's an expectation that Vandy and Mississippi State — 101st and 98th in the nation in scoring offense, respectively — are going to suddenly find a way to have any chance of combining to score in the 40s? Neither of these teams can put up 20 points against air at this point.

Current Line:
VANDY@MISSST UNDER 44.5
William hill sportsbook

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Josh Nagel
SENIOR ANALYST
YESTERDAY 12:12 PM

FLA +3.5
FLA VS UGA | 11/07 | 3:30 PM EST
Both teams are compromised by injuries, suspensions and potential Covid protocols. However, the healthiest unit is the best one in this game -- the Florida offense. Georgia's vaunted defense allowed 41 points to Alabama and Florida is capable of doing the same, provided it doesn't self-destruct. But with Georgia's defensive quarterback, safety Richard LeCounte, sidelined by an off-field injury, the value lies with Florida QB Kyle Trask and his myriad weapons.

25-15 IN LAST 40 CFB PICKS | +849
11-1 IN LAST 12 UGA ATS PICKS | +989

5-1 IN LAST 6 FLA ATS PICKS | +389

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Emory Hunt

MRSHL -45
UMASS @ MRSHL | 11/07 | 2:30 PM ESTYESTERDAY 11:25 AM
I know you get scared when you see the huge spread, but don't run from this game. Marshall hasn't played since Oct. 24 because of a postponement due to COVID-19. The Thundering Herd are as good as BYU, but the masses have forgotten about them because they've had 3 games scrapped. UMass is not very good and is running into a Marshall team that will want to remind the pollsters HOW great it is defensively and how efficient it is offensively. I'm expecting a 63-7 type of result that favors the Thundering Herd.

21-14 IN LAST 35 CFB ATS PICKS | +562
4-1 IN LAST 5 UMASS ATS PICKS | +289

3-1 IN LAST 4 MRSHL ATS PICKS | +190

CSTCAR -18
SALA @ CSTCAR | 11/07 | 8:00 PM ESTYESTERDAY 11:18 AM
The Chanticleers are an extremely talented team on both sides of the ball. While the focus has been on their offense and the amount of points they've been able to score, the defense has been the real MVP of this squad. It is a big reason why the offense has had so many scoring opportunities. Look for Coastal Carolina's defense to keep South Alabama's chunk play-dependent offense at bay.

21-14 IN LAST 35 CFB ATS PICKS | +562

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Barton Simmons

TENN -2
TENN @ ARK | 11/07 | 7:30 PM EST11:20 AM
The Vols are coming off a bye week after a three-game losing streak in year three of Jeremy Pruitt. To see them as a short favorite against an Arkansas team that’s been awful the last few years is quite the wake-up call as to where this program is. I think they’re closer to where they want to be than people are acknowledging. Losses to Georgia and Alabama are excusable. The loss to Kentucky was bad because of two pick-sixes and another interception on three straight possessions. As long as Jarrett Guarantano doesn’t have that kind of disastrous day, Tennessee has better personnel and should win and cover.

5-1 IN LAST 6 CFB ATS PICKS | +390

LIB +15
LIB @ VATECH | 11/07 | 12:00 PM EST11:18 AM
This is another interview game for Hugh Freeze. He’s trying to climb back out of the Group of Five cellar into a big-time job and he’s going to do it by competitive showings against teams like this. Liberty won’t pull the upset here but it’s too good of an offense not to get some points. If this isn’t four quarters of competitive football, it will be a fourth quarter of Freeze trying to make it respectable.

5-1 IN LAST 6 CFB ATS PICKS | +390

UNDER 50.5
CLEM @ ND | 11/07 | 7:30 PM EST11:17 AM
Brian Kelly has been bragging all week about how Notre Dame is going to run the football. He’s going to try to grind this game away just like they’ve tried to do each of the last three weeks. Clemson may not be healthy enough to resist that kind of pace. When you consider Notre Dame’s defense is going to make things difficult on true freshman D.J. Uiagalelei as a passer, I’d expect Clemson to limit its pace too. If Notre Dame can’t win, it will be able to keep the score low.

9-5 IN LAST 14 CFB PICKS | +350

USC -10.5
ARIZST @ USC | 11/07 | 12:00 PM EST11:13 AM
If this game was being played in a month, maybe I’d look at it differently but Arizona State is trying to beat USC with a bunch of freshmen at the skill positions. While Jayden Daniels is one of the best QBs in the country, Kedon Slovis is probably even better with weapons at wide receiver that you can put up against any team in college football. Arizona State won’t be able to keep up.

5-1 IN LAST 6 CFB ATS PICKS | +390

MICH -3
MICH @ IND | 11/07 | 12:00 PM EST11:11 AM
Indiana has had a nice start to the season but somehow it’s 2-0 with a big upset and without an impressive showing. Michigan has some soul-searching to do after a loss to Michigan State. I don’t think Indiana will have the same success throwing downfield as Michigan State had and Michigan’s offense is close. 3 points isn’t enough for a Michigan team that needs this win badly.

5-1 IN LAST 6 CFB ATS PICKS | +390
2-1 IN LAST 3 MICH ATS PICKS | +88

11:10 AM

VANDY +19.5
VANDY @ MISSST | 11/07 | 3:30 PM EST
As bad as Vandy has looked this year, I don’t get the sense that those players have quit on Derek Mason. With a true freshman quarterback and some guys getting back from COVID issues, Vanderbilt has something to play for. That doesn’t mean they win but it does mean that they can keep it competitive with a smart gameplan from Mason against a Mississippi State team that has been awful on offense with a bunch of guys transferring out of the program and opting out of the season.

5-1 IN LAST 6 CFB ATS PICKS | +390

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arizona at Utah canceled


Charlotte at Middle Tennessee postponed


UTSA at Rice postponed


Louisiana Tech at North Texas postponed

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doug Kezirian

Michigan -3
Northwestern -3.5
Cincinnati -13.5
Cincinatti Team Total over 34.5
Minnesota at Illi: OVer 61.5
Clemson at ND : 1st half under 25.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gold sheet

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Cincy

from vegas insider

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc lawrence

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Iowa
florida
notre dame

from vegas insider

[dawggy]

RALPH MICHAEL

• Game: (303) SMU at (304) Temple
  Date/Time: Nov 7 2020 12:00 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: SMU -17.5 (-110)
  
  4% SMU -17.5
  I’ve left off a few Covid games not wanting to lay the inflated number but last night’s NFL game watching SF reminded me that there is a lot of value fading those teams, like Temple.
• Game: (405) Massachusetts at (406) Marshall
  Date/Time: Nov 7 2020 2:30 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 3%
  Play: Total Under 55.5 (-110)
  
  #405/#406 3* UNDER 55.5 UMass/Marshall 2:30 PM
  UMass was shutout with 191 yards vs Ga Southern. Marshall’s D has held 3 foes to a season low. Herd with almost a 2-1 run-pass ratio and will be happy to get out with a 35 or 40 point shutout win.
• Game: (381) Florida at (382) Georgia
  Date/Time: Nov 7 2020 3:30 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Florida +3.0 (-105)
  
  #381 4* Florida +3 Georgia 3:30 PM
  Florida has a much better QB with Franks an 18-2 ratio. Regression from Bulldog’s QB Bennett. Yes, Georgia is the better D but not enough to offset the offensive advantage the Gators have.
• Game: (319) Pittsburgh at (320) Florida State
  Date/Time: Nov 7 2020 4:00 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Florida State 0.0 (-110)
  
  #320 4% Florida St pk Pittsburgh 4 PM ET
  I have Florida St as a 4+ pt Fav and we’ll gladly back them in this pick’em role. The Seminoles may be 166 YPF on road but that was against Miami, Fl, Notre Dame & Louisville and tis game IS AT HOME where they are -11 YPG and -0.3 FD/gm. Panthers have their stats padded by playing their first 4 games at home. When you have a quality head coach in his first year there are great things that happen during a bye week and I expect significant improvement. Pittsburgh has avg’d 64 ypg & 1.9 ypc rushing while completing only 50.5%
• Game: (401) Clemson at (402) Notre Dame
  Date/Time: Nov 7 2020 7:30 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 3%
  Play: Clemson -5.5 (-110)
  
  #401 3* Clemson -5.5 Notre Dame 7:30
  Tigers D has held 5 of 7 to a season-low. Irish does not have the elite talent Clemson has.
• Game: (361) Washington State at (362) Oregon State
  Date/Time: Nov 7 2020 10:30 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 3%
  Play: Oregon State -1.5 (-110)
  
  #362 3* Oregon St -1.5 Washington St 10:30 PM ET
  New Wash St HC Nick Rolovich talked about expecting hos team to look very bad in spring and in summer camps changing schemes. Well, OSU had a 7-0 Spring practice edge with a system in its third season

[dawggy]

DR. CHUCK



Game: (339) Michigan at (340) Indiana
Date/Time: Nov 7 2020 12:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Michigan -3.0 (-110)

Favored road team in conference off a pathetic loss to rival Sparty for Mel Tucker's first win in East Lansing facing a surprise 2-0 B1G team from Bloomington….wow does seem like shooting fish in a barrel!
This would ABSOLUTELY be a 5% hammer play of the week type spot if the line made one little lick of sense….as it is we just need a win by a FG or more to avoid a loss here….which for the MOST part is a fade of Harbaugh starting this season 1-2 with 2 straight losses….and put that way sure seems like a slam dunk snoozer of a W!

[dawggy]

ASA[COLOR=#FFFFFF !important]ALL FOOTBALL PLAYS[/COLOR]

• ASAwins CFB Big Ten High Noon FOX 70%
  Game: (339) Michigan at (340) Indiana
  Date/Time: Nov 7 2020 12:00 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Michigan -3.0 (-115)
  
  ASA PLAY ON 4* Michigan -3 over Indiana, 12:00 PM ET - This one sets up very nicely for Michigan. They are coming off a home loss vs Michigan State while IU sits on top of the Big Ten East with a 2-0 record, tied with OSU. The Hoosiers are very fortunate to be undefeated. They topped PSU in OT in week 1 despite getting outgained 488 to 211 and outrushed 250 to 41. Last week they beat a Rutgers team that just ended a 23 game conference losing streak a week prior. So in essence, IU won a game they shouldn’t have and beat Rutgers. Big deal. Michigan destroyed Minnesota in week 1 putting up 49 points. Last week it looked like they were a bit full of themselves entering their game vs arch rival MSU who was off a loss to Rutgers (due to 7 MSU turnovers). Sparty definitely looked like the more motivated team and pulled the upset. The Wolverines should be very motivated here off that performance. Their offense has been good putting up 481 vs Minnesota and 452 vs a solid MSU defense. On defense they’ve been solid against the run and struggled a bit vs the pass. IU can’t run the ball. They’ve averaged 1.6 YPC vs PSU and 2.6 YPC vs Rutgers. Michigan should shut down that portion of their offense making them one dimensional. Indiana QB Penix is solid but not the type of throwing quarterback you want to carry a team through the air. These 2 have faced off 32 times since 1980. Michigan has won 31 of those games and has been favored in all 32. This current line of Michigan -3 is the lowest spread ever in this series. Michigan was favored by 10 here last year with fans in the stands for IU (Mich won 39-14). Now they are a full TD lower just 1 year later with in an empty IU stadium? Looks like the Wolverines are undervalued coming off their loss while Indiana is overvalued with their 2-0 start. Lay the points with Michigan.
  
  
• ASAwins CFB Early Crusher! 12-1 RUN!
  Game: (377) West Virginia at (378) Texas
  Date/Time: Nov 7 2020 12:00 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: West Virginia +6.5 (-110)
  
  <b>ASA PLAY ON 4* West Virginia Mountaineers (+) over Texas Longhorns, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #377</b><Br><Br>A key factor during the season to find value on a weekly basis is to find games which fit the bill as a phony final where the scoreboard just does not match what truly took place on the field and the box score serves as the evidence! One of the most misleading finals on the board last Saturday was Texas getting an upset win over Oklahoma State. In that 41-34 OT win, Texas was -15 first downs, the Longhorns were outgained 530 to 287 but had a 4-0 turnover edge which led to directly to half of UT’s points. In the first half alone, Texas scored 20 points and 13 of those came on 17 total yards of offense (a 15-yard TD drive, a 5-yard drive that ended in a FG, and a -3 yard drive that ended in a FG). Texas also scored on a 100-yard kickoff return in the 2nd half. The Horns came into the game averaging 490 YPG on offense but it was quickly proven that a solid defense could give them problems (held under 300 yards in the OT win). Indeed, last week Texas faced an OSU defense that is really good this year and now the Longhorns face the only defense in the Big 12 that is ranked ahead of the Cowboys and that is West Virginia. The Mountaineers have been fantastic on that side of the ball this season and held Kansas State to just 10 points and 225 total yards in their 37-10 win last Saturday. Texas will have some problems with this West Virginia defense as well. The Mountaineers are allowing just 19.8 points and only 255.7 yards per game this season. Their defense rates a huge edge over that of the Longhorns. Texas allowed just 3 points in their season opener but that was against an out-classed UTEP team. Since then, UT has allowed 38.4 points per game. As you can see, that is almost exactly DOUBLE what the West Virginia defense is allowing this season. This is also a revenge game for the Mountaineers as they lost last season's match-up 42-31. In fact, this series has been dominated by the road team and West Virginia won at Texas 42-41 in 2018. It looks like another upset could be in the offing in this one! Mountaineers QB Doege has thrown for 300+ yards in 3 straight games and faces a Horns pass defense that has struggled in Big 12 games. Look for the road to improve to 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these teams as coach Herman's team falls to 3-10 ATS the last 13 times they have been a home favorite in Big 12 action. As you can see above, there is strong situational value in this spot and per our computer math model, the forecast is a close game with great potential for an outright upset for the road team in this one. Grab the points in this Saturday early afternoon Big 12 match-up.
  
• ASAwins CFB Game of the Month! *12-1*
  Game: (375) Oklahoma State at (376) Kansas State
  Date/Time: Nov 7 2020 4:00 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 5%
  Play: Oklahoma State -12.0 (-110)
  
  #375 ASA TOP PLAY ON 5* Oklahoma State -12 over Kansas State, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - One of the most misleading finals on the board last Saturday was OSU’s loss to Texas. In that 41-34 OT loss, OSU was +15 first downs, outgained the Longhorns 530 to 287 but had 4 turnovers (Texas had 0) which led to directly to half of UT’s points. In the first half alone, Texas scored 20 points and 13 of those came on 17 total yards of offense (a 15-yard TD drive, a 5-yard drive that ended in a FG, and a -3 yard drive that ended in a FG). Texas also scored on a 100-yard kickoff return in the 2nd half. The Horns came into the game averaging 490 YPG on offense so the OSU defense, which is really good this year, held them 200 yards below their average. The Cowboys rank 14th nationally in total defense and they’ve held every opponent this year below their season average in YPG. The only defense in the Big 12 that is ranked ahead of them (slightly) is West Virginia and the Mountaineers held Kansas State to just 10 points and 225 total yards in their 37-10 win last Saturday. KSU will have all sorts of problems with this Oklahoma State defense as well. The Cats lost starting QB Thompson for the season a few weeks ago. His replacement Will Howard is a freshman with very little experience. Howard has now started 3 games and if you subtract KSU’s game vs Kansas who stinks, they have scored a grand total of 3 offensive TD’s with him under center. The Wildcats 4-2 record doesn’t look bad but the fact is they are getting outgained by almost 100 YPG and they’ve been outgained by every team they’ve faced this year with the exception of Kansas. That includes Arkansas State who upset KSU 35-31. The Cats do have a signature win over Oklahoma this year which might be keeping them overvalued but they were beaten badly in the stat sheet in that game as well with the exception of turnovers (Oklahoma had 4 / KSU had 0). They also trailed by 21 in that game but had senior QB Thompson in the line up to help with the comeback. The Cowboys offense has averaged 35 PPG over their last 3 games and they received a big boost when starting QB Sanders returned two weeks ago vs Iowa State. He has thrown for over 600 yards and 5 TD’s in his 2 games since returning. He and the OSU offense should have a field day vs a Kansas State defense that is allowing 437 YPG ranking them 78th in total defense out of 113. Last week they allowed WVU to roll up almost 500 yards and tally 37 points. We don’t think Kansas State will be able to keep up here. The Cowboys have rebounded well off a loss with a 7-1 ATS record off their last 8 defeats and they want to rebound from last week’s disappointing loss as they head into a bye week. Lay it as this has the makings of an easy win for Oklahoma State.