Thursday 11/12/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-12-2020, 05:12 AM

Jeff Siegel's National Best Plays - 11/12/20

November 12, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s National Best Plays for Thursday, November 12, 2020

Aqueduct First Race – Post time: 12:20 ET
6 – Uno (8/5)

Debuting son of the hot freshman sire Laoban lands a nice spot to win at first asking in this state-bred sprint for juveniles. Listed at 8/5 on the morning line, the T. Pletcher-trained colt sizzled a furlong in 9 4/5 seconds at the OBS July Sale (looked terrific in doing so) and then attracted a bid of $255,000, an impressive sum considering the sire at the time had an advertised stud fee of $5,000. The recent workout tab shows two recent bullet workouts to have him primed first crack out of the box for the T. Pletcher barn, and from a cozy outside post J. L. Ortiz can pop and go or stalk and pounce.

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Churchill Downs Eight Race – Post time: 4:36 ET
6 – Dame Cinco (12-1)

Let’s go for a big price is this maiden special weight juvenile filly sprint that is loaded with first timer starters. Dame Cinco certainly is bred to be quick and was quite impressive breezing a furlong over the Timonium bullring main track when previewing in the spring sale in 10 1/5 seconds, after which she brought $200,000 through the ring. From the barn that is quite capable of winning with debut runner, the daughter of Cinco Charlie has done some good work at the Churchill Downs Training Center, attracts the stable’s “go-to” rider B. Hernandez, and looks very much like a live item in a wide-open, unclassified affair. The best of the known element, 11-Zoom Up, should be considered as an exact partner but the main punch goes to this strong, look-looking filly from the C. DeVaux stable.

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Churchill Downs Ninth Race – Post time: 5:06 ET
8 – Perjury Trap (4-1)

Talented but sparingly-raced colt makes just his second start over a year’s time in this first-level allowance middle distance turf event, and with a healthy recent series of works he should be fit and ready for a winning effort. Thew C. Brown-trained colt broke his maiden at the expense of subsequent Grade-1 winner Gufo last November, returned in July when a troubled fourth in a fast allowance affair at Saratoga, and today shows up at Churchill Downs against a field that he should be capable of handling. The C. Brown-trained son of Blame is listed at 4-1 on the morning and offers value at that price in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.

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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-12-2020, 05:49 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Aqueduct - Race #3

#2 Lookbothways	Stalker really woke up off the slight break last time, catches a crew with some early speed, and will be a square price too; can surprise.
#3 Happy Sophia	Stiff favorite will get first run on the pick and will be tough, but she does rise in class, and there's speed to her outside too; trying to beat.
#6 Wicked Title	Pace presser did well to draw outside the 3, and her form is solid, though she's another rising in class, off a slow win too; underneath only.
Race Summary	The price will be right on the 2, and the pace might be too, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially in the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since she could get overlooked, even though the 2 and 6 have some class questions to answer, and could zap each other on the front end as well.

Aqueduct - Race #4

#2 Victory Built	Longshot was thrown to the wolves off the NYB MCL win two-back, so the 50k starter 5th wasn't terrible, and now, against weaker, at a big price, he may wake up; upset special.
#5 Starship Bubba	Noda charge found the magic last time, when a fast 2nd by a neck, and a repeat wins this for fun, but in theory you would think he'll regress off such a seismic effort; not sold on.
#1 Onward	Stiff class dropper didn't run an inch in a Del Park allowance and now is in for 25k, off a layoff too, which isn't a good sign, from the rail, at underlaid odds; tread very lightly here.
Race Summary	That 12-1 ML on the pick offers plenty of risk-reward, especially with the 1 and 5 having some questions to answer, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially in the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since he'll be completely ignored, but his last wasn't bad at all, and this is a sizable drop in class as well.

Aqueduct - Race #7

#7 Currency Chrome	Mth invader has a stalking gear in a race loaded with early speed, confidently rises in class off a good 2nd last time, and will be a very square price too; bombs away.
#3 Foxy Red	The heavy chalk also comes in from Mth but drops of a slew of good runs, so to see him in for 12.5k isn't ideal, and he'll meets other speed as well; backwheel time.
#6 Wegotoldyougotsold	Tricky read drops in half off the Toscano claim (15%) and a complete no-show last time, so while his best wins this for fun, what you get is a real guess; mixed signals.
Race Summary	Pace makes the race and this one is loaded, and it could catch the 3 and 6, who have some flags attached too, so give the pick a look in all the slots, and especially the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since he's the one taking the confident rise, as opposed to dropping suspiciously in class, and yet he'll be about 10 times the price too.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-12-2020, 05:50 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #2

#9 Maid the Journey	Decent try with blinkers on at Charles Town last out, and he's an okay fit with this group on paper at what should be a fair price.
#5 Natty Beau	Looks like the one to beat off the good try last time out when adding blinkers, and the class drop may be enough to get him home.
#1A It's Sizzling Time	Was in a spot that was a bit too ambitious last time out, but he can show some speed on the drop with these. Chance as part of the entry.
Race Summary	Maid the Journey can flash a little bit of pace at a price, and with a step forward, he can be right there in a spot where Natty Beau should be tough at a short kind of price.

Laurel Park - Race #7

#5 Glengar	Cuts back a touch after finishing to score in that starter stakes off the claim, and he's a good fit right back on the drop to the claim level.
#10 Zitarrosa	He found the right level with this kind, but it's worth noting that he was no threat with similar in August, so he's no sure thing to repeat that big one last time out at a short price.
#3 Sunman	Midpack type drops after a modest run with better last time out, and he's pretty competitive with this kind. 5/1 ML price would seem fair.
Race Summary	Glengar posted a 28/1 upset off the claim last time out, and he's right back to the same $5,000 after that sharp move. Look for him late.

Laurel Park - Race #8

#10 Charm City Band	Third start off the layoff here after a chase and mild fade last time out, and he gets a good draw to press the pace again today.
#6 Baptize the Boy	Good effort with stakes company at 22/1 last time out, and he's a good fit with this kind if he can bring anything similar.
#5 Russeldoingthings	Tactical speed exits a very fast race, and he's a big threat if he doesn't take a step back off that fast run.
Race Summary	Charm City Band should be a fair price from the outside, and he can prompt the splits from this draw in a race where there are a few questions worth asking of the likely favorites.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-12-2020, 05:51 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #1

#2 JUST PLAIN LOCO	Patiently tracked the favorite, overpowered him in the stretch, today’s Best Bet.
#5 GUNSLINGER HILL	Pulled away through :55.3 back half, claimed by 27-percent barn.
#6 CANBEC KINGKAZIMIR	Exits fast race, hit board in 27 of 60 starts since 2019.
Race Summary	Just Plain Loco sat poised in the pocket behind pace-setting favorite Myidealson N and simply blew past him in the lane. He could be sitting on another big one in his third start of a cycle. Play 2-5 and 2-6 exactas.

Dayton Raceway - Race #1

#10 OHIO Z TAM	Ran winning-type race, early position the key from second tier starting spot.
#1 FIFTY FLAT	Has speed and the rail and a 20/6-4-4 record this year.
#4 REDSKITTLE	Took some money in debut, made middle move, flattened out.
Race Summary	Ohio Z Tam bid 3-wide as the pace quickened, tipped 3-wide in the stretch and just missed. Would like him a lot more if not starting from the second tier, but at least the price should be okay.

Hoosier Park - Race #3

#6 LOOKINTOMYEYES	Seeks duplicate of race two starts ago at shorter oval.
#2 SWEET TALKIN GYPSY	Posted a front-end victory from post 9 but fired a blank last week.
#7 LIKE A PEACH	Second in last pair, should be forwardly placed throughout.
Race Summary	Lookin for an improved try from Lookintomyeyes in his return to Hoosier Park. He raced 3-deep in the outer flow at Dayton two starts back, made a bold 3-wide run on the final turn and finished a clear second. He was no threat in a faster-paced follow-up.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-12-2020, 05:53 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park West - Race #9

#1 Yes for Less	Lost a photo three races back and then was outrun in his last two; stretches out and gets Lopez up and is very likely to improve.
#6 Jack B Winkle	Ran on for second in his last two races and has improved over this strip; legit late threat.
#4 Mighty Fast	Figured it out last time with an 11-length maiden score in his 10th start; enjoyed it on the front end last time and will try to do the same.
Race Summary	Yes for Less won two of three in late summer and has a good chance to get back to that form here; has been in fast races and should enjoy the stretch out.

Gulfstream Park West - Race #3

#6 Black Pepper	Ran on for second last time in his first over this strip this season, adds ground and gets a good pace in front of him; the one to hold off.
#1 Killa Dee	Was second in a race that came off the turf last time and seeks his first win since March; makes second start off the claim by Crichton, who is hitting 40 percent on the current stand.
#4 Stone Hands	Was outrun at this price last time, but it was in a fast race; first off the claim for Sano.
Race Summary	Black Pepper gets an ideal pace setup and can get his first win of the year after posting three victories last year. Closing move can get it done.

Gulfstream Park West - Race #7

#7 Charlie the Greek	Never really got involved and was along for a well-beaten third in latest, but he can do much better. Makes second off the claim for Walder and getting Lopez for the return riding engagement.
#3 Just Kidding	Was an easy winner at this level going a one-turn mile; won his last two-turn effort in August but that one came against lesser than this. Tough on the front end.
#4 Well Defined	Has been in some good races and can be a forward factor from the beginning; can last for a piece of it.
Race Summary	Charlie the Creek has been a big player in most of his races and has the class to prevail.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-12-2020, 08:17 AM

Dave Cokin

Event: (7117) Justin Rose at (7118) Jordan Spieth
Sport/League: GLF
Date/Time: November 12, 2020 6AM EST
Play: Justin Rose -135
Full tournament matchup play on Justin Rose to defeat Jordan Spieth.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-12-2020, 08:19 AM

Nick Borrman

Event: Billy Horschel vs Sebastian Munoz
Sport/League: GLF
Date/Time: November 12, 2020 10AM EST
Play: Sebastian Munoz (-110)
The Masters
I picked this exact same matchup so a couple weeks ago for an easy win. Munoz is just in much better form right now. He has made 9 straight cuts with six Top 25 finishes including his last two starts, a T14 at the Zozo and a 9th at the CJ Cup. His stat lines from last year are nothing too impressive as he came on strong after the restart while th beginning of the season wasn't great, but did finished #34 SG Tee to Green and #33 in Total SG.
Horschel finished 2nd at the Wyndham back in August but hasn't cracked the Top 25 in six starts since including finishing 69 out of 77 in his last start at the Zozo.
The one negative for Munoz here is that this is his first start at Augusta. However Horschel doesn't have a great history here either with two MC in five starts. He finished 56th here last year and is best finish was 17th in 2016 when he was playing his best golf.
Ride the hot hand here once again with Munoz
TAKE SEBASTIAN MUNOZ OVER BILLY HORSCHEL

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-12-2020, 08:20 AM

Hakeem Profit

Event: (305923) Saski Baskonia at (305924) CSKA Moscow
Sport/League: BSKT
Date/Time: November 12, 2020 12PM EST
Play: Saski Baskonia +7.0 (-110)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-12-2020, 08:20 AM

Hakeem Profit

Event: (305925) Alba Berlin at (305926) Olympiakos
Sport/League: BSKT
Date/Time: November 12, 2020 2PM EST
Play: Total Under 163.0 (-110)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-12-2020, 08:55 AM

Hakeem Profit

Event: (305927) Zalgiris Kaunas at (305928) Maccabi Tel Aviv
Sport/League: BSKT
Date/Time: November 12, 2020 2PM EST
Play: Total Over 159.0 (-110)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-12-2020, 08:55 AM

Kevin Dolan

Event: (234009) Slovakia at (234010) Northern Ireland
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: November 12, 2020 2PM EST
Play: Northern Ireland 0.0 (-115)
PLAY: NORTHERN IRELAND +0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-12-2020, 08:55 AM

Tony Mejia

Event: (234005) Iceland at (234006) Hungary
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: November 12, 2020 2PM EST
Play: Iceland 0.0 (+115)
This Euro Cup qualifier will be played in Budapest, the Hungarian capital, where the Magyars will also host a pair of UEFA Nations League matches this weekend and next Wednesday. Serbia and Turkey come through and are each behind Hungary in Group 3, so Hungary has a chance to advance and potentially earn promotion ahead of first-place Russia if it perseveres at home and gets some help.
That makes me doubt just how much the team will invest in this Iceland match since key midfielder Dominic Szoboszlai is affected by a COVID-19 outbreak at his club Red Bull Salzburg, that may or may not feature false positives. The club originally denied all international call-ups, so the 20-year-old standout who is being eyed by much larger teams throughout Europe may not be available until at least the weekend.
The winner of this match enters Euro 2021’s Group F, which will feature France, Germany and Portugal, making it the unquestioned ‘group of death’ in the competition.
Iceland defeated Romania at home last month before falling to Denmark and Belgium in Reykjavik, which is one reason why it is the underdog here since its last road game in Brussels produced a 5-1 loss. It benefits from the fact that no fans will be in attendance in Hungary due to a nationwide coronavirus outbreak. Augsburg striker Alfred Finnbogason should factor in at some point and AZ striker Albert Gudmundsson is in good form. We’ll ride with Iceland in this pick’em, betting the spread to push in case this ends in a draw in regulation.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-12-2020, 08:56 AM

Hakeem Profit

Event: (305929) Fenerbahce Ulker at (305930) FC Barcelona
Sport/League: BSKT
Date/Time: November 12, 2020 3PM EST
Play: Fenerbahce Ulker +8.0 (-110)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-12-2020, 08:57 AM

NCAAF

Week 11

Thursday’s game
Colorado State (1-1) @ Boise State (2-1)
— Colorado State split its first two games, losing only road game 38-17 in Fresno.
— Rams gave up 669 passing yards in their first two games.
— State has 7 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— Rams have 50 returning starts on the offensive line.
— CSU has a senior QB with 10 career starts.
— Since 2018, Rams are 3-5 ATS as a road underdog.

— Boise State won two of first three games; they lost 51-17 to BYU last week.
— Broncos allowed 629 YR in their last two games.
— Boise has 5 starters back on offense, 6 starters back on defense.
— Broncos have 37 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Boise played three QB’s last week; none of them played well.
— Since 2010, Boise State is 13-10-1 ATS as a home favorite.

— Boise State won last nine series games (6-3 ATS)
— Rams lost their last four games on the blue turf (2-2 ATS)

Thursday 11/12/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Thursday 11/12/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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