Service Plays Saturday 11/14/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football

College Football
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football

Baseball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball

College Basketball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...CAA-Basketball

NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball

NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey

[dawggy]

DR. CHUCK


Game: (161) Wisconsin at (162) Michigan
Date/Time: Nov 14 2020 7:30 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Wisconsin -150

Laaaaaate……sorry guys…when I made the wager on the -1 I DID NOT know it would be so fleeting and balloon like this craziness ….but that is my fault…clearly with the line being so ridiculous I should have known Harbaugh back against the wall means very little capping wise!

[dawggy]

RALPH MICHAELS


Game: (185) Oregon at (186) Washington State
Date/Time: Nov 14 2020 7:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Oregon -7.5 (-110)

#185 4% Oregon -7.5 Washington St
MY line is Oregon -15. Yes I played against Washington St last week and the true frosh Jayden de Laura played well but that was vs an Oregon St team that looked pitiful on defense and had no film on the QB they were facing. The Ducks return all 4 DB’s this season and have an offense that is the third year of the Cristobal system. Washington St was out’FD last week against Oregon St and this Ducks rush attack will cause havoc vs a Cougars D that allowed 451 yards LW.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kyle Marley UFC Saturday

Martinez +185 KO. McKee +165 KO. Yoder +110 DEC. McKenna +190 DEC. Allen -105 SUB. Arroyo +120 DEC. Felder +150 KO. Favorites: Gravely -165 DEC. Murata -175 SUB. Smolka -135 DEC. Marquez -280 KO. Alhassan -230 KO

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alabama vs. LSU has been postponed

Texas A&M vs. Tennessee postponed

Air Force at Wyoming canceled

Memphis vs. Navy postponed

Mississippi State vs. Auburn Postponed

Pitt at Georgia Tech postponed

Rice at Louisiana Tech postponed

UAB-NO TEXAS Cancelled

[Buckeyefan80]

Ohio State vs Maryland has been canceled.

[rocky57]

Play #1 - Early Release

H&H Sports (CFB) - Triple Dime Tulsa -135 (Moneyline)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Allen Eastman:

7 - Miami +2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Speitzer:

7 - Marshall -24

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jason Sharp:

6 - UAB -14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Big AL

5* Marshall

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Cokin:

Baylor +1
UAB -14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WUnderdog

NCAA

Indiana-7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doug Kezirian

Rutgers -3.5 (first half),
Rutgers -6.5,
Rutgers -.5 in 6-point teaser with Purdue +9

Hawaii at San Diego St : Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Week 11 college football best bets: Oregon faces early road test

Every Thursday during the season, Doug Kezirian (3-5 last week, 22-15 overall), Bill Connelly (1-1, 13-12), Preston Johnson (1-0, 19-10), David M. Hale (3-0, 13-12) and Seth Walder (0-2, 4-6) will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 11 of the college football season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Wednesday.


Wake Forest Demon Deacons at North Carolina Tar Heels (-13.5, 66), Noon ET (on ACC Network)

Hale: It seems every time we've liked North Carolina to cover a hefty spread against a far less explosive opponent this year, the Tar Heels have found a way to lose outright. It's the growing pains of a team still not quite ready to compete at an elite level, despite having some elite talent But, fool us twice, because we're ready to get fooled again.
UNC ranks second in net explosive play rate so far, while Wake is 88th. The Demon Deacons have outperformed their underlying metrics repeatedly, but so long as the Tar Heels don't fall behind big in the first half -- as they've done so often this year -- this should be a game in which the big-play offense of UNC puts Wake on its heels (get it?) leading to an easy win.
Pick: North Carolina -13.5

Army Black Knights at Tulane Green Wave (-5.5, 47.5), Noon ET (on ESPN+)

Connelly: I'm conflicted on this one. Tulane both has been pretty reliable against the spread and has looked outstanding in recent weeks, beating Temple and East Carolina by a combined 76-24 score. The Green Wave have overachieved their SP+ projections by 4.7 points per game.
However, Army has overachieved its SP+ projections by 5.7 points per game, and has overachieved against the spread by an average of 11.5 points. The Black Knights have done this despite shuffling at the quarterback position. While their option offense is mostly what you'd expect -- minimal big plays, long drives, lots of third-down conversions, great in the red zone -- it's the defense that makes SP+ favor them here. Army has allowed fewer than 12 points per game against FBS teams, and that includes a game against rampant Cincinnati. SP+ says Army has a 2.3-point advantage, and even if you don't believe that, there's a healthy distance between that and Tulane -5.5.
Pick: Army +5.5

Illinois Fighting Illini at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-6.5, 52), Noon ET (on Big Ten Network)

Kezirian: This has been a strange year, so it makes perfect sense that Rutgers is favored by 6.5 points in a conference game. All joking aside, Greg Schiano has already turned this program around toward competency. I have been pleasantly surprised by the Scarlet Knights in every game so far, particularly with the fight they showed against Ohio State in garbage time. They moved the ball for a touchdown, and then the defense forced a turnover in its red zone. Meanwhile, Illinois has looked lifeless and weak. This has all the makings of a dispirited squad on the road against a team that's hungry for a blowout win.
This is my favorite bet of the weekend, so I am going to try to milk that. I also want to play Rutgers in the first half and also use the Scarlet Knights in a teaser.
Pick: Rutgers -3.5 (first half), Rutgers -6.5, Rutgers -.5 in 6-point teaser with Purdue +9

Vanderbilt Commodores at Kentucky Wildcats (-17, 42), noon ET (on SEC Network)

ohnson: Vanderbilt had a good under-the-radar performance at Mississippi State last week. The Commodores lost, so it often gets overlooked, but Vandy outgained the Bulldogs 478 yards to 204. Vanderbilt had 30 first downs to just 14 for Mississippi State. The problem was that the Commodores turned it over five times, and every one was in Mississippi State territory. This is an offense I'm eager to back if the numbers line up.
On the other side, Kentucky quarterback Terry Wilson is questionable to play (he missed the Georgia game), and the Wildcats have combined for only 13 points total the past two games (Missouri prior to Georgia). This was an offense that was already struggling mightily anyway but benefited from numerous defensive scores in early-season matchups. It's hard to envision the Wildcats covering a number as high as 17 points whether or not Wilson is able to play. I grabbed some +600 on the ML as well, for what it's worth.
Pick: Vanderbilt +17

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-4.5, 48.5), 3:30 p.m. ET (on CBSSN)

Johnson: I spoke to buying low on WKU last week, and it came through for us against FAU despite nasty weather. I'm going right back on the Hilltoppers here against a Golden Eagles team that has been without its best two quarterbacks in Jack Abraham and Tate Whatley these past two games. This resulted in a 30-6 home loss to Rice and a second-half comeback to beat FCS opponent North Alabama, 24-13. Both quarterbacks are questionable to play again in this matchup, and even if they do I make this line closer to -7. Southern Miss is on its third head coach of the season and is in the type of situation that I feel comfortable fading with a short number.
Pick: Western Kentucky -4.5

Baylor Bears at Texas Tech Red Raiders (-1.5, 57), 4 p.m. ET

Hale: It would be easy to dismiss Baylor as a bad team under a first-year coach, but that's not the whole story. The underlying metrics have actually been pretty good. The defense has rarely allowed explosive plays, and has kept Baylor in nearly every game until late -- all four losses were by 11 points or less, all to teams ranked higher in the FPI. This week, however, Baylor has a clear advantage in FPI -- the Bears check in at No. 34, while Texas Tech is No. 74. And that Red Raiders offense that hung 56 on Texas in late September hasn't looked the same since. The Bears' D will have a strong game, and Baylor will win outright.
Pick: Baylor +1.5

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at San Diego State Aztecs (-11, 52.5), 4 p.m. ET

Kezirian: I love this recipe for a relatively low-scoring game. For me, the handicap starts with Hawaii's poor track record on the road against physicality. The Aztecs' calling card is defense and ball control, and I don't think that bodes well for the Rainbow Warriors. Hawaii only mustered seven points at Wyoming, and I expect a similar performance here. San Diego State relies on a strong rushing attack, and while I expect the Aztecs to cover the double-digits, I am going to opt for the under. QB Carson Baker has limitations, so I am unsure I want to depend on some big plays. Instead, let's just hope we get a one-sided game with a bleeding clock in the second half.

No. 11 Oregon Ducks (-10.5, 57.5) at Washington State Cougars, 7 p.m. ET (on FOX)

Johnson: I'm playing against the early-week move on the Ducks here (opened -7.5). Oregon benefited from Stanford quarterback Davis Mills and top wide receiver Connor Wedington being scratched for COVID-19-related concerns prior to the game this past week. Regardless, the Cardinal were able to move the ball against an inexperienced defense, and the result isn't as impressive when you recognize Stanford missed four field goals as well.
Turn to a Washington State team that the market was looking to fade in its first game without Mike Leach (opened a favorite and closed +3 at Oregon State), and I think the market ultimately got this one wrong. True freshman quarterback Jayden de Laura was extremely impressive. He didn't lose a single game for two seasons in high school (two state championships included), and his poise showed. Backup running back Deon McIntosh (a Notre Dame transfer) rushed for 147 yards and was virtually unstoppable. Starting running back Max Borghi missed the game and is questionable this week. It's obviously a bonus if he can go. People anticipated a drop-off from Leach to new head coach Nick Rolovich, but his run-and-shoot offense was effective at Nevada, Hawaii and now in the opener for Wazzu. I'm taking the 'dog now that we are seeing double-digits in the market.
Pick: Washington State +10.5

No. 23 Northwestern Wildcats (-3, 50.5) at Purdue Boilermakers, 7:30 p.m. ET (on Big Ten Network)

Hale: Fading Northwestern and its lackluster offense seemed like a good idea for three straight weeks, yet the Wildcats are 3-0 with three covers. All three games failed to hit the total, too, underscoring the obvious: Northwestern has a shaky offense and a very good defense. Now Pat Fitzgerald's crew is facing another team more than capable of laying an egg, another week where it's easy to project an ugly low-scoring Northwestern win. But I've never been one to shy away from a betting strategy just because it doesn't seem to work, so I'll fade the Wildcats again and project an outright win for the Boilermakers.
Pick: Purdue +3
Johnson: My projections make this very close to a 50/50 game, so taking the three points with a Purdue team coming off of an essential bye week against a Northwestern team exceeding expectations in the win-loss column is perfectly fine with me. The fact of the matter is, the Northwestern win last week required some good fortune. Nebraska had eight total trips inside the Wildcats' red zone and managed to score only 13 points total. In fact, the Cornhuskers had three trips in the second half alone that resulted in a total of zero points. The Northwestern love, while the team has improved from 2019, has gone a little too far.
Pick: Purdue +3

Utah Utes (-3, 59.5) at UCLA Bruins, 10:30 p.m. ET (on FOX)

Connelly: Because SP+ was 4-0 picking Pac-12 games last week, here's a "team SP+ loves debuting against a team that didn't look good last week" pick. Utah has plenty to replace off last year's squad but ranks 25th in SP+ because of long-term program health. UCLA, on the other hand, ranks 74th in SP+ and lost to Colorado last week. SP+ sees something like a 36-25 win for Utah.
UCLA quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson's volatility -- he looks like a Heisman contender on one drive, then looks completely checked out for the next three -- makes picking for or against the Bruins a bit scary. And Utah has had some contact-tracing issues, making its depth questionable. But Utah has been so steady in recent years, and UCLA just lost to Colorado.
Pick: Utah -3

Oregon State Beavers at Washington Huskies (-13.5, 52.5), 11 p.m. ET (on FS1)

Connelly: I wrote this last week before Washington's game with Cal was canceled, and it still applies: this is a full-on "Fine, SP+, you've got one shot at this" pick, as SP+ is particularly bullish on the Huskies. It projects a 38-17 advantage over Oregon State.
Oregon State's offense showed some spark in their 38-28 loss to Washington State last week, especially on the ground, and the Beavers could test a Washington front that experienced a bit more turnover than originally expected when it lost Levi Onwuzurike. But the Oregon State defense might be the perfect testing ground for whatever new Washington offensive coordinator John Donovan comes up with. OSU didn't provide much resistance against Washington State's limited roster and freshman quarterback.
Pick: Washington -13.5