Service Plays Sunday 11/15/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tom Fornelli

CLE -3.5
HOU @ CLE | 11/15 | 1:00 PM ESTTHU 11/12
It's looking more and more likely that Nick Chubb will be returning to the backfield, which is a significant boost to the team's ground game. The Browns haven't been nearly as effective running the ball with Kareem Hunt as the lead back as they were when Hunt was a secondary punch to Nick Chubb. What isn't as widely-noticed is that Cleveland's also likely to get guard Wyatt Teller back on the offensive line too, and his absence has played a significant role in the drop-off of Cleveland's ground game as well. With both of them likely back, and facing a porous Houston rush defense (28th in DVOA, 23rd in success rate), the Browns offense should have a strong game on Sunday.

10-9-2 LAST 21 NFL SIDES | +15
6-1-1 IN LAST 8 CLE ATS PICKS | +492

6-2-1 IN LAST 9 HOU ATS PICKS | +381

TB -6
TB @ CAR | 11/15 | 1:00 PM ESTTHU 11/12
The last we saw Tampa Bay it was being embarrassed in primetime by New Orleans. There are few things I love more than taking a team after they've been destroyed in a spotlight game, because the public tends to be overly reactive, and it's often reflected in the next week's line. I believe that to be the case here. It was a bad night for Tampa, against a team that seems to have their number this season. I fully expect Tom Brady and company to bounce back this week against a Panthers team that has lost four straight, and that Tampa beat by 14 in Carolina earlier this season.

10-9-2 LAST 21 NFL SIDES | +15
4-0 IN LAST 4 CAR ATS PICKS | +400

SEA +1.5
SEA @ LAR | 11/15 | 4:25 PM ESTTHU 11/12
I have a very difficult time not picking the Seahawks as underdogs. Or, to be more specific, when Russell Wilson is an underdog. Russ has been a monster ATS throughout his career, but he's truly special as an underdog. Since taking over as the Seahawks starter in 2012 (has it really been that long?) Seattle is 27-13-2 ATS as an underdog. When they're a dog to a division opponent that number improves to 9-2 ATS. There's simply no way in the world I can do anything but back the Seahawks in this spot. Sure, it's going to be stressful because all Seattle games are crazy, but that's part of the fun.

10-9-2 LAST 21 NFL SIDES | +15
2-1 IN LAST 3 LAR ATS PICKS | +86

5-4-1 IN LAST 10 SEA ATS PICKS | +77

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Micah Roberts

UNDER 48.5
HOU @ CLE | 11/15 | 1:00 PM ESTTHU 11/12
Two weeks ago, the windy conditions in Cleveland impacted the passing games of the Raiders and Browns. Sunday is supposed to bring 28 mph winds and rain as the Browns host the Texans. Some of the value has already been squeezed out from the opener, but the total is still six points too high.

5-3 IN LAST 8 NFL PICKS | +170
4-1 IN LAST 5 CLE O/U PICKS | +290

PHI -3
PHI @ NYG | 11/15 | 1:00 PM ESTTHU 11/12
I have the Eagles almost six points better than the Giants. The Giants have covered their last three games, but their only wins are against Washington. The road team has covered the last five meetings and the Eagles have gone 10-3 ATS in their last 13 at New York in Jersey. Also, Take the Eagles to cover.

5-3 IN LAST 8 NFL PICKS | +170
17-12 IN LAST 29 PHI ATS PICKS | +375

5-3 IN LAST 8 NYG ATS PICKS | +170

MIN -2.5
MIN @ CHI | 11/16 | 8:15 PM ESTTUE 11/10
The Bears have won the last four meetings in this series, but they have now lost three straight. The Vikings have won their last two and covered five of their last six. The success begins with more Dalvin Cook and less Kirk Cousins. When Cook gets at least 22 carries this season, he runs for 130-plus yards, has scored nine TDs and the Vikings covered all four games. Cook was not featured in any of the previous four meetings. I bet he is Monday, and the play is on the Vikings.

5-3 IN LAST 8 NFL PICKS | +170
9-6-2 IN LAST 17 MIN ATS PICKS | +236

5-3 IN LAST 8 CHI ATS PICKS | +169

BAL -7
BAL @ NE | 11/15 | 8:20 PM ESTTUE 11/10
Lamar Jackson gained some confidence by throwing the ball well in last week's 24-10 win at Indianapolis after coming off a tough loss to Pittsburgh. I think he takes that next step forward against the Patriots' defense. He guided Baltimore to a 37-20 victory against a much better New England defense around this time last season. Patriots QB Cam Newton has thrown five interceptions and no touchdown passes over his last four games. The Ravens to win big here.

5-3 IN LAST 8 NFL PICKS | +170
8-3 IN LAST 11 BAL ATS PICKS | +469

3-0 IN LAST 3 NE ATS PICKS | +300

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Matt Severance

ARI -2.5
BUF @ ARI | 11/15 | 4:05 PM EST11:11 PM
Terrific matchup between rising dual-threat star QBs Josh Allen and Kyler Murray. It feels like perhaps a bit of a letdown game for Buffalo off back-to-back huge home wins over New England and Seattle and ahead of the team's bye week. The Bills are also down two of their top three cornerbacks in Josh Norman and Levi Wallace due to COVID-19 protocols plus tight end Tyler Kroft. Arizona might get back top RB Kenyan Drake, who is a game-time call, but we like the Cards regardless as Buffalo is 1-5 ATS in its past six on the road.

3-2 IN LAST 5 NFL ATS PICKS | +80
3-2 IN LAST 5 BUF ATS PICKS | +80

LAR -2.5
SEA @ LAR | 11/15 | 4:25 PM EST10:58 PM
Seattle will be without its top two running backs (Chris Carson, Carlos Hyde) and starting center, plus that porous defense is down both starting cornerbacks. The Rams are about as healthy as possible at this point of the season off their bye week. My guess is this gets up to L.A. -3 by kickoff. Take the Rams before it does. Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its past five vs. the NFC West.

3-2 IN LAST 5 NFL ATS PICKS | +80

TB -6
TB @ CAR | 11/15 | 1:00 PM ESTYESTERDAY 11:00 AM
Carolina QB Teddy Bridgewater has an amazing career record ATS as a dog, but the Panthers will be without Christian McCaffrey and that hurts even though they have LOST 11 straight games with him in the lineup. This is more about the Bucs surely being a tad ornery after being embarrassed last Sunday night at home by the Saints. Following their previous two losses, Tampa dominated -- including a 31-17 win over Carolina in Week 2. The Cats are 0-5 ATS in their past five at home vs. the NFC South.

3-2 IN LAST 5 NFL ATS PICKS | +80

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Elite Sports Picks

Houston +4 over Cleveland (NFL)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Insider Sports Report

4* Houston/Cleveland OVER 45.5 (NFL)
Range: 43.5 to 47.5

3* Miami -1.5 over L.A. Chargers (NFL)
Range: PK to -4

3* Baltimore -7 over New England (NFL)
Range: -5.5 to -9.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

National Sports Service

5* Philadelphia -4 over N.Y. Giants (NFL)

3* Tampa Bay -6 over Carolina (NFL)

3* L.A. Chargers/Miami OVER 48.5 (NFL)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Primetime Sports Picks
MEMBER PICKS For 11/15/20

4 Unit --> Arizona -3 over Buffalo (NFL)

3 Unit --> Detroit -3 over Washington (NFL)

3 Unit --> Philadelphia -4 over N.Y. Giants (NFL)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Top Rank Sports Picks
Sports Handicapping At Its Best®
Marquee Picks® For 11/15/20

4★ Seattle +2.5 over L.A. Rams (NFL)

3★ Houston/Cleveland OVER 45.5 (NFL)

3★ Las Vegas -3.5 over Denver (NFL)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Hartstein

UNDER 51
TB @ CAR | 11/15 | 1:00 PM EST10:19 PM
Safety Jeremy Chinn should return for Carolina, while the Bucs will be without guard Ali Marpet for the second straight game. Those two factors are going to help the Panthers' beleaguered defense. Plus, Tampa Bay will want a far more balanced attack than it showed last week. Those rushes will keep the clock moving. Go Under.

SF +10
SF @ NO | 11/15 | 4:25 PM EST10:00 PM
The 49ers are getting a few reinforcements: Trent Williams, Kendrick Bourne and Brandon Aiyuk. They're trying to save their season while the Saints are due to regress a bit after by far their finest performance. Grab the points as San Fran covers for the seventh time in the last eight meetings.

24-19 IN LAST 43 NO ATS PICKS | +299

16-12-1 IN LAST 29 SF ATS PICKS | +262

CAR +6
TB @ CAR | 11/15 | 1:00 PM ESTYESTERDAY 12:29 AM
This is an obvious bounceback spot for Tampa Bay following its embarrassing performance Sunday night. But how can you fade Teddy Bridgewater as an underdog? Plus, the Panthers should get rookie safety Jeremy Chinn back from the knee injury that caused him to miss Week 9. In the first meeting, the Panthers controlled the ball for more than 34 minutes but lost because they were minus-2 in turnover margin. Mike Davis had eight catches for 74 yards in the loss. With Christian McCaffrey out, Davis should have a massive game as the Panthers keep this close.

4-3 IN LAST 7 CAR ATS PICKS | +60

DEN +4.5
DEN @ LV | 11/15 | 4:05 PM ESTTHU 11/12
The Broncos finally are getting healthy in the secondary. On the other side of the ball, Drew Lock should excel against a Raiders' defense that ranks 20th in pressure rate and 31st in blitz rate. Grab the points in what should be a tight divisional game.

MIN -2.5
MIN @ CHI | 11/16 | 8:15 PM ESTTHU 11/12
Kirk Cousins has a terrible history on Monday Night Football, and the Bears have beaten Minnesota four straight times. But the Vikings, led by Dalvin Cook, came out of their bye a different team. Since then they've beaten the Packers and Lions while averaging 31 points. I'll lay the small number against the crumbling Bears.

20-7-1 IN LAST 28 MIN ATS PICKS | +1225

6-2 IN LAST 8 CHI ATS PICKS | +375

BUF +2
BUF @ ARI | 11/15 | 4:05 PM ESTWED 11/11
This is a great matchup for Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs versus Arizona's predominantly man coverages. They're back on track now and Buffalo's passing attack should thrive in these perfect conditions. It doesn't hurt that Budda Baker is dealing with a groin injury. Back the road dog.

15-12-2 IN LAST 29 BUF ATS PICKS | +174

5-4 IN LAST 9 ARI ATS PICKS | +49

LAR -1.5
SEA @ LAR | 11/15 | 4:25 PM ESTTUE 11/10
The week off came at a great time for the Rams, as Cooper Kupp (wrist), Tyler Higbee (hand) and Darrell Henderson (quad) needed time to heal. This is a great bounceback spot for LA's offense against Seattle's porous defense. The Rams also should get a boost from the return of safety Jordan Fuller and the debut of defensive lineman A’Shawn Robinson. Lay the small number.

20-11 IN LAST 31 LAR ATS PICKS | +761

9-6-2 IN LAST 17 SEA ATS PICKS | +220

MIA -2.5
LAC @ MIA | 11/15 | 4:05 PM ESTTUE 11/10
This line is trending toward 3, with good reason. The Chargers are experts at losing close games, while Brian Flores is building something special in Miami. The Dolphins are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games and continue to be undervalued. Lay it.

9-3-1 IN LAST 13 LAC ATS PICKS | +566

9-5 IN LAST 14 MIA ATS PICKS | +350

BAL -7
BAL @ NE | 11/15 | 8:20 PM ESTTUE 11/10
On a short week, the Patriots have to get ready to face a Baltimore team that completely shut down the Colts' offense. The Ravens are undefeated on the road. I think they keep it up, hold New England to 17 or fewer, and cover.

3-1 IN LAST 4 NE ATS PICKS | +190

CLE -3
HOU @ CLE | 11/15 | 1:00 PM ESTMON 11/9
Coming off their bye, the Browns are on track to get back guard Wyatt Teller, tight end Austin Hooper and running back Nick Chubb versus Houston. The Texans have beaten the Jaguars twice, but no other team. Houston gave up 417 total yards in its narrow win over Jacksonville last week, allowing rookie QB Jake Luton to lead a late TD drive that would have tied the game had the Jags converted the 2-point conversion. Even assuming Bradley Roby returns to bolster Houston's secondary, the Browns should be able to pound the ball against a Texans' defense allowing 5.1 yards per carry. Lay it.

24-15-1 IN LAST 40 HOU ATS PICKS | +750

4-2-2 IN LAST 8 CLE ATS PICKS | +186

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brett Anderson

MIA -2.5
LAC @ MIA | 11/15 | 4:05 PM ESTWED 11/11
Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa have both been impressive, though Herbert may be a step ahead at this point. But the mismatch here is at coach. Brian Flores' Dolphins never stop playing hard, and they've won four in a row with two different QBs. The Chargers, on the other hand, have gone a mind-numbing 3-15 in one-score games since the start of last season. The last L.A. team to play in the South Florida humidity didn't fare too well, and this one won't either. Lay the points.

3-1 IN LAST 4 LAC ATS PICKS | +196

3-1 IN LAST 4 MIA ATS PICKS | +195

CLE -3
HOU @ CLE | 11/15 | 1:00 PM ESTWED 11/11
The Texans are getting a lot of respect from the oddsmakers for a team that's 1-7 against the spread and hasn't beaten anyone not named the Jaguars. This line indicates these teams are close to even, but it's difficult to see how. The Browns' three losses came to teams that are a combined 19-5, and now they're getting healthier with the return of Nick Chubb and OG Wyatt Teller. Houston ranks 28th against the run. Lay the points.

4-0 IN LAST 4 CLE ATS PICKS | +400

3-2 IN LAST 5 HOU ATS PICKS | +83

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hank Goldberg

TB -5.5
TB @ CAR | 11/15 | 1:00 PM ESTTHU 11/12
Without Christian McCaffrey, I don't think the Panthers have a shot to keep up with Tampa Bay. The Bucs will do what they want on the ground and through the air. Lay the points.

9-5-4 IN LAST 18 TB ATS PICKS | +347

2-1 IN LAST 3 CAR ATS PICKS | +100

BAL -7
BAL @ NE | 11/15 | 8:20 PM ESTTUE 11/10
I don't care that the Patriots beat the Jets -- Baltimore's defense is another story entirely. The Ravens have gotten a takeaway in 21 straight games. They totally shut down Indy in the second half last week. If Joe Flacco can almost beat the Patriots, Lamar Jackson certainly will. Take Baltimore to cover.

11-4 IN LAST 15 NE ATS PICKS | +661

LAR -1.5
SEA @ LAR | 11/15 | 4:25 PM ESTTUE 11/10
I love the Rams this week. Seattle gives up an NFL-worst 455.8 yards per game. L.A. is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following a loss, and the Rams had an extra week to stew over their defeat in Miami. Sean McVay will have his team ready for this one.

13-4-3 IN LAST 20 SEA ATS PICKS | +847

15-9-1 IN LAST 25 LAR ATS PICKS | +526

ARI -2
BUF @ ARI | 11/15 | 4:05 PM ESTTUE 11/10
This is a great QB matchup. Arizona could have tied the game last week if not for a missed field goal. The Bills aren't going to travel well in this spot. They're not going to sack Kyler Murray the way they did Russell Wilson. Back the Cardinals.

12-6-1 IN LAST 19 BUF ATS PICKS | +528

NYG +3.5
PHI @ NYG | 11/15 | 1:00 PM ESTTUE 11/10
The Giants are playing well. They lost by one at Philly, by two at home to Tampa Bay, then beat Washington. Their running game is surprisingly effective. Grab the points.

6-3 IN LAST 9 PHI ATS PICKS | +266

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kyle Akins

WAS +3.5
WAS @ DET | 11/15 | 1:00 PM EST7:13 AM
The Lions are coming off back-to-back lopsided losses and those were against middle-of-the-pack teams in Indianapolis and Minnesota. Detroit is not a team that carries much home-field advantage, yet the Lions are being given full credit for playing at home. Detroit is a home favorite in this game coming off three straight games where the Lions were underdogs. Teams that are at least three-point favorites after at least three straight games as underdogs fail to cover 57.1 percent of the time.

LAC +1.5
LAC @ MIA | 11/15 | 4:05 PM EST7:11 AM
Miami has won the past two weeks in a completely unsustainable way. The Dolphins won those last two games despite being outgained by at least 130 total yards in each game. The Dolphins' good fortune will run out here. Last week, Arizona moved the ball consistently against Miami, gaining 26 first downs. The Dolphins are 0-19-1 ATS (-8.32 ppg) since Oct 20, 2002 as favorites coming off a game as underdogs of more than three points where they allowed at least 22 first downs.

SEA +2
SEA @ LAR | 11/15 | 4:25 PM EST7:09 AM
Seattle had been overvalued the last few weeks as the betting public was not grasping just how shaky its defense was playing. But in this game the line has overcorrected. Last week, Seattle was a three-point favorite traveling across the country to Buffalo. Buffalo is a better team than the Rams, yet Seattle now finds itself as an underdog. In a losing effort in Buffalo last week, Russell Wilson threw for two touchdowns. The Seahawks are 8-0 ATS since Sep. 23, 2018 coming off a loss where Russell Wilson threw at least two touchdowns.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hank Goldberg

Best Bets

Here are Hammer's picks, posted Tuesday night:

BALTIMORE -7

BALTIMORE @ NEW ENGLAND | 11/15 | 8:20 PM EST

I don't care that the Patriots beat the Jets -- Baltimore's defense is another story entirely. The Ravens have gotten a takeaway in 21 straight games. They totally shut down Indy in the second half last week. If Joe Flacco can almost beat the Patriots, Lamar Jackson certainly will. Take Baltimore to cover.

L.A. RAMS -1.5

SEATTLE @ L.A. RAMS | 11/15 | 4:25 PM EST

I love the Rams this week. Seattle gives up an NFL-worst 455.8 yards per game. L.A. is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following a loss, and the Rams had an extra week to stew over their defeat in Miami. Sean McVay will have his team ready for this one.

ARIZONA -2

BUFFALO @ ARIZONA | 11/15 | 4:05 PM EST

This is a great QB matchup. Arizona could have tied the game last week if not for a missed field goal. The Bills aren't going to travel well in this spot. They're not going to sack Kyler Murray the way they did Russell Wilson. Back the Cardinals.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

R.J. White

Westgate Las Vegas Super Contest

Chicago Bears (+2.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Vikings stock is as high as can be coming off two impressive wins where Dalvin Cook tallied 478 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns. Bears stock is as low as can be after losing three straight games, including an abysmal effort from Nick Foles' offense last week. But nothing is constant in the NFL, and I love this matchup for Chicago, a team that just limited the Titans offense to 228 yards and shut down Derrick Henry. Throw in Kirk Cousins absolutely flopping on Monday nights (0-9 ATS) and Chicago winning four straight against this Minnesota team, and it starts to look like this spread is well off the number it should be. See if you can get +3, but take the Bears either way.

Cleveland Browns (-3) vs. Houston Texans
There's no way these teams are close to even given the Texans struggled to put away an awful Jaguars team last week, while the Browns' losses came once in a unique, weather-dominated game and twice on the road against two of the league's best defenses. The Browns already have the coaching edge and also get the extra week to prepare, and their run game should dominate the Texans up front in a game where the weather should make running the ball matter. You always worry about fading Deshaun Watson when he can have a superb game at any time, but the Browns have enough talent up front to combine with the wind to limit the Texans star.

Miami Dolphins (-2) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Considering what we know now of the Dolphins, I think this line should be on the other side of 3. The Miami offense looked on point after getting involved in a shootout with Arizona, and Tua Tagovailoa was able to orchestrate enough offense to beat a good Cardinals team on the road. Now the Dolphins get to return home and face a not-so-good Chargers team that finds new ways to lose every week. The Dolphins defense has the personnel to match up with the Chargers offense and should be less susceptible to the run this week with L.A. dealing with injuries at RB. They make the difference in a Miami win and cover.

Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) vs. Buffalo Bills
The Bills are coming off a pair of wins against two marquee franchises in the Patriots (a big win for Buffalo due to its history, no matter how bad the Pats have been) and Seahawks. With a bye next week, this is the perfect sleepy spot on the road for a Buffalo team that has been hot and cold all year. The Cardinals have a Thursday night game ahead so this would normally be a trap spot for them as well, but the fact they outplayed the Dolphins last week and lost is a great motivating factor. This Arizona run game should carve up the Bills defense, and Arizona is a solid 11th in pass defense DVOA. I think we're getting value under 3.

Washington Football Team (+4) at Detroit Lions
This one is a contest-play only as it remains off the board in many places, though you'll likely see something around this number with Matthew Stafford avoiding a final injury tag. But even though there's a big DVOA gap between these teams, I think Washington is the better team moving forward. The QB change might be a net positive, as Alex Smith is the type of veteran who can manage games and let his defense beat bad teams. And the Lions are bad at this point, and they should struggle to throw the ball against a Washington defense that ranks No. 1 in pass DVOA. Expect Washington to run the ball easily against the struggling Detroit defense and pull off an outright win.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SportsLine Computer

Best 5-team parlay:

Take Lions (-3.5) over Washington

Take Giants (+3) against Eagles

Take Rams (-2) over Seahawks

Take Jaguars (+14) against Green Bay

Take Bears (+2.5) against Vikings