Thursday 11/19/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Jeff Siegel's National Best Plays for Thursday, Nov. 19, 2020

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November 19, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s National Best Plays for Thursday, November 19, 2020

Aqueduct 7th race. Post time: 2:15 ET
4-Boomkittybyebye (12-1)

This is nothing more than an educated guess but one worth taking at 12-1 on the morning line. The debuting daughter of Kitten’s Joy out of a turf route-winning half-sister to multiple stakes winner West Hills Giant hails from a capable outfit, draws the barn’s “go-to” rider and sports a steady, easy series of workouts that should have her plenty fit. Trainer J. Englehart shows an excellent percentage with first-time starters (20%), so in a field in which the known element appears average at best on paper, a fresh face such as this New York-bred juvenile filly could spring a major surprise.

*

Churchill Downs 8th race. Post time: 4:36 ET
2 – Sir Alfred James (3-1)

Has the perfect style for this one-turn mile trip along with a previous win over the Churchill Downs main track, so we’re expecting this lightly-raced gelding to continue to produce rising speed figures in a race that projects to have modest early fractions. The son of Munnings earned a career top number when a close fourth vs. similar last month and not much more will be needed to beat this group. At 3-1 on the morning line he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.

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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

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Aqueduct - Race #1

#1 King of Ranch	Speedster has never run on the main but is certainly bred for it, and he looks like a Lone F on paper, at what will be a square price too; theft is on the agenda.
#2 Economic Policy	Aforementioned stiff favorite for Brown has aired in two straight and will be bet hard, but the fact he's even in for 14k says to tread very lightly; backwheel time.
#5 Local Counsel	Stretch runner has been facing better, while posting solid figures, and will be a square price, though his last four have been dreadful; along late for a small share.
Race Summary	Pace makes the race and there's none here to keep the 1 from making the point and improving from there, so play him in all the slots, and especially to kick off the early Pk5 too, as the chalk looks a tad tough to trust, and a win by the pick would really knock out a lot of tickets right off the bat.

Aqueduct - Race #4

#3 Persisto	Del invader got back to the dirt and flew home last time in a romp, and while this is a step up in class, there's plenty of pace to aid her chances; call right back.
#6 Flashndynamite	Pace presser is clearly the gal to beat, as she's best on figures and has won 4-of-5, but there's a lot of speed entered, and she could get fried chasing; second-best.
#7 Jennemily	Stalker has the right style in regards to the race flow, and the 2nd last time was solid, but at 3-1 with no real edge she's a bit of an underlay; trying to beat on top.
Race Summary	That 6-1 ML on the pick is mighty inviting off her win last time, and the cutback to one-turn should give her plenty of foundation too, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially in the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since she comes in better than ever, and, aside from the 6, who could have pace issues, there's no one else to fear here.

Aqueduct - Race #7

#1 Lil Commisioner	Price player didn't fir eon the turf last time but had some strong form on the main before that, and while this is a salty group on the rise, he can trip out just off the speed; upset special.
#3 Americanus	Dangerous 3yo returned from a 6-month break and with Shug with a strong run in a fast race at the Spa, so now, off that tightener, with plenty of upside, he should improve; looms large.
#7 Three Technique	Stiff favorite has some class and was a fast 2nd, beaten a head, at the level last time, but that run was a lifetime best, so he could be set to regress here, at false odds too; mixed signals.
Race Summary	The price will be right on the 1, as 10-1 or so will offer plenty of risk-reward, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially in the late Pk5, and to kick off the late Pk4 as well, since he fits with these on paper, the favorites have a knock or two, and a win would add plenty of value to both sequences.

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Laurel Park - Race #1

#6 Paynterbythenumbers	Goes off the claim while stretching out again, and this one owns a couple of pretty nice mile tries from early in the career at Aqueduct, and perhaps the added ground will do the trick.
#5 Dance for the Gold	Tactical type should hit hard with these, but the price figures to be on the short side after a couple of close-call runner-up finishes.
#1 Back Roads	Finished up nicely in the debut going shorter, and she doesn't seem like the kind of finisher who will struggle to see out another furlong today.
Race Summary	Paynterbythenumbers steps up off a dull run, but the back route tries seem to fit well with these, and the price should be right with Dance for the Gold and Back Roads likely to take plenty of action.

Laurel Park - Race #6

#8 Kewpie Doll	Dirt tries stack up nicely with this group, and she figures to offer a fair price even after chasing a very tough winner last time out.
#4 Trip to Freedom	Backed up the big MCL debut score with a nice run with stakes company last time out, and this spot suits her nicely as she'll almost surely go for the front again.
#2 Moochie	Showed little in the turf stakes try, but the main-track debut win was pretty solid, and something similar to that would keep her in the mix with these.
Race Summary	Kewpie Doll can play with these at a square price, as she caught an impressive winner last time out and should be able to get a nice, tracking trip with these.

Laurel Park - Race #8

#4 Bull Shark	Should offer the best price of his career in this spot, and he has some room to bounce back off a couple of dull off-turf runs.
#8 Nomo Ron	Finisher has a couple of recent races that stack up nicely with these, and there might be enough pace to set things up for his late run.
#3 Stroll Smokin	Should get in the mix from the start, and her ability to press the pace and finish might work in her favor if anyone else wants to have a go for the front.
Race Summary	Bull Shark will get overlooked here, but his best stuff isn't too far off what it might take to score with these, and he has plenty of room to bounce back today.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #1

#4 JUST PLAIN LOCO	Overpowering two back, no factor in follow-up, price attached.
#2 GUNSLINGER HILL	Continues to pay quick dividend on series of recent claims.
#3 DAVID THE SAINT	Landed minor awards in 4 of his last 6 starts.
Race Summary	No giving up on Just Plain Loco, who was no match for several of the same rivals he meets again. His race two back merits a second look, as he sat poised in the pocket and simply overpowered the favorite in the lane. Play a 4-2-ALL trifecta.

Plainridge - Race #6

#1 BIGGIE	Held strong through fast splits, inched closer late, draws rail.
#4 CASH VAUGHAN	Gets lively pace flow to rally into, use in all gimmicks.
#2 BEACH WATCH	Two wins and a near miss at Plainridge in last 30 days.
Race Summary	Biggie has 23 wins, starts from the rail and stayed with morning-line favorite Beach Watch through a fast third-quarter split last week. He can turn the tables at a decent price. Play a 1-2-4 exacta box.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #3

#9 HOLDIN ACES	Giant effort last week, must stay in closer contact with field.
#2 SONOFAMILLIONAIRE	Went off stride as the favorite at this level two starts ago.
#6 BLAZING TRAIL	Takes the plunge off layoff, watch the odds.
Race Summary	If Holdin Aces can stay in the same zip code as his opponents early, he should be heard from late. Last week, he was gapped off the gate from post 10, trapped on the backstretch with pace and full of run late after he angled 5-wide in mid-stretch, finishing second. Play 9-2 and 9-6 exactas.

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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

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Gulfstream Park West - Race #2

#3 Plenum	Has steps up his game in his last two and was most recently second in the slop; looks like he can adjust to the pace and can be around late.
#6 Sir Kahn	Has been in much tougher spots lately and will probably wake up on this class drop.
#7 Bon Prix	Has the speed to get to the lead and having hot-riding Lopez up will not hurt.
Race Summary	Plenum has been running well and likely will get a good stalking position here; can outfinish the pacesetters.

Gulfstream Park West - Race #4

#3 Top Gun Tommy	Got shuffled back and never got untracked in his only start, which came at Monmouth; has trained well for his return and can move up at this distance.
#2 Another Duke	Finished with interest going shorter distances and should appreciate the two turns; will get plenty of play.
#5 Dudes Got Game	Has trained well for his first start and this Nyquist colt can be a factor at first asking.
Race Summary	Top Gun Tommy is bred to move up with distance and his was too far back to be dangerous in his debut; added distance will help.

Gulfstream Park West - Race #7

#4 Doc Amster	Very rapid in his last two and was fourth in his first off the claim for Delgado; can hold on in this spot.
#3 R Mercedes Boy	Was third in a fast race last out and usually is in the ball park; last won in July and is moving closer toward regaining a winning edge.
#2 Man of Vision	Was on the board in all four career starts and comes in off a second in a fast race; has the speed to be a danger.
Race Summary	Doc Amster is extremely fast and can get in front of the other speed in here; is likely raced but can improve with experience.

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Cappers Access

(Thur) NFL Cardinals +3
(Thur) NCAAF Tulsa -6

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park West

Gulfstream Park West - Race 1	$1 Daily Double / $2 Quiniela / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $.50 Bet 3 (Races 1-2-3) / $.50 Pick 5 (Races 1 -5) / $1 Super Hi 5
Maiden Claiming $25,000 • 1 Mile • Turf • Age 2 • CR: 61 • Purse: $23,000 • Post: 12:35
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000, IF FOR $20,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT ONE MILE).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * LEARNT: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. KETCHIKAN: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has a 4F workout since its last race, and the workout time is faster than its own half-mile time in its last race. FUNWHILEI TLASTED: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
5	LEARNT	7/2	7/2
7	KETCHIKAN	4/1	5/1
11	FUNWHILEITLASTED	3/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	SHAKEM	1	30/1	Front-runner	0	0	73.9	49.3	27.8
4	FACTS ONLY	4	6/1	Alternator/Front-runner	62	46	20.9	42.7	24.7
7	KETCHIKAN	7	4/1	Stalker	58	56	58.8	53.1	44.1
10	SISTER IS DEVIL	10	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	70.2	51.4	34.4
8	BONHEUR	8	20/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	48.3	46.5	38.5
5	LEARNT	5	7/2	Trailer	68	53	57.2	51.9	45.9
14	LA PINTA	14	6/1	Trailer	0	0	48.3	48.3	29.3
12	SILVER SKY SMOOTH	12	8/1	Trailer	0	0	32.2	39.8	29.3
11	FUNWHILEITLASTED	11	3/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	50.2	50.2	44.7
16	LIESEL	16	4/1	Alternator/Trailer	53	39	21.8	46.5	29.5
9	INDY FRONT	9	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	56	34	72.1	30.3	8.8
13	MY GLORY	13	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	59	47	50.2	50.2	33.7
3	BABY LION	3	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	24.6	39.8	22.3
6	SO JADED	6	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	24.6	24.6	5.6
2	PATRONUS	2	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	21.8	21.8	0.0

Unknown Running Style: ROUWAY (20/1) [Jockey: Panici Luca - Trainer: D'Angelo Francisco].

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Indiana Downs

Indiana Downs - Race 11	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta 10 Cent QH Only Grand High 5 (Pentafecta - Separate Carryover)
Maiden • 300 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 70 • Purse: $16,000 • Post: 7:05P
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * A RUBY CORONA: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. ZOOMING CUPIDO: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. FALCON: Horse ranks in the top three in aver age Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. EL HURACAN ETHICS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. AJK PAYYOURTAX: Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
5	A RUBY CORONA	5/2	6/1
9	ZOOMING CUPIDO	4/1	6/1
10	EL HURACAN ETHICS	8/1	7/1
3	FALCON	5/1	7/1
7	AJK PAYYOURTAX	9/2	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	FAVORITE FASTTIME	1	30/1	Slow	0	0	7.3	0.0	0.0
2	PRINCES DASHNON	2	30/1	Slow	76	50	7.0	0.0	0.0
3	FALCON	3	5/1	Average	70	68	4.9	0.0	0.0
5	A RUBY CORONA	5	5/2	Average	71	66	5.6	0.0	0.0
6	WH DESIGNED MAN	6	15/1	Average	67	63	5.1	0.0	0.0
7	AJK PAYYOURTAX	7	9/2	Average	70	68	5.6	0.0	0.0
8	SCREAMINJIMMY	8	15/1	Slow	70	68	7.4	0.0	0.0
9	ZOOMING CUPIDO	9	4/1	Average	71	69	4.9	0.0	0.0
10	EL HURACAN ETHICS	10	8/1	Average	70	68	5.7	0.0	0.0
11	DG POWER	11	12/1	Slow	0	0	6.9	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: ROYAL FEATURE CARTEL (6/1) [Jockey: Martinez Luz Daniel - Trainer: Cunningham Anthony F].

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Evangeline Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 250y on the Dirt. Purse: $8000 Class Rating: 61

QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 HEZA SILENT ROGUE 15/1
# 1 HEZA OKEY DOKEY KAT 10/1
# 3 MR STANDING OVATION 3/1

HEZA SILENT ROGUE seems to be the wager in here and is a quite good value bet given the line. The average class fig of 28 makes this entrant tough to beat. This gelding with Garcia in the saddle makes him a definite contender. Garcia has solid numbers that point to this gelding to be a sharp contender. MR STANDING OVATION - Looks solid for the conditions of this contest today, showing solid figures in short races recently. Has decent Equibase Speed Figs and has to be considered for a bet for this race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Cross Country Pick Four - Race #5 - Post: 4:36pm - Optional Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $89,000 Class Rating: 109

Rating:

#1 DREAMS OF VALOR (ML=9/2)
#6 HEMBREE (ML=3/1)
#7 GUN IT (ML=5/2)


DREAMS OF VALOR - Lone speed horses can be tough to run down. Here's a lone front-runner facing sluggish sorts today. This one could be a possible overlay in today's race at morning odds of 9/2. Finished fourth in last race at Santa Anita but was close at the finish line. HEMBREE - I like the fact that this horse's last figure, 103, is tops in this field. Horse had the second fastest workout of the day prepping for this. This horse is at the top in earnings per start. Take a good look at this horse in the saddling enclosure. GUN IT - Leparoux and Asmussen partnered with one another are a railbird's friend. Came home in sizzling time last time around the track. A positive sign.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 SIR ALFRED JAMES (ML=3/1), #4 KAZIRANGA (ML=6/1), #5 SAVVY (ML=6/1),

SIR ALFRED JAMES - Didn't finish in the money on October 3rd at Keeneland. Followed it up with another less than stellar performance. KAZIRANGA - Where is the pace? None to be found in here to set things up for this thoroughbred. Difficult to bet on any racer to turn things around if there is no wager value to taking the chance. Not likely that the speed rating he registered on Oct 22nd will be enough in this race. SAVVY - Pace makes the race and the shortage of speed means this rallier will have to rally without any help. This gelding finished outside the top 3 on September 5th and wasn't close to victory in the last race either.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Have to go with #1 DREAMS OF VALOR on the win end if we get at least 3/1 odds

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Laurel - Race #5 - Post: 2:23pm - Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $42,000 Class Rating: 98

Rating:

#1 WONDER IN (ML=6/1)
#2 IN THE LOOP (ML=5/1)
#11 ABSOLVED (ML=6/1)
#7 ANNAMATED MOON (ML=12/1)
#9 ABUELO PAPS (ML=8/1)


WONDER IN - Gelding shipped to this track and won; now goes for a double. I like to wager on this angle, a thoroughbred coming back off a solid outing within the last month. Look at this pattern of improvement. 68/71/101 are the last 3 speed figures. IN THE LOOP - On October 31st this gelding shipped in to take the top prize and looks good right back. Have to give this gelding a chance. Ran a nice race last race out within the last 30 days. Ran a quick time for the last quarter on October 31st at Laurel. Anything close in this race should get the job done. ABSOLVED - This jock and trainer have a fabulous winning pct when they combine forces. Have to give this colt a good shot. Ran a nice outing in the last race within the last month. ANNAMATED MOON - This gelding is very reliable, frequently finishing in the money. Stites brings him right back. I propose you stay with this hot gelding. ABUELO PAPS - I took a look at this colt's finishes. He's almost always in the money. Karamanos and Salazar partnered up are a railbird's friend. Salazar brings him right back. I recommend you stick with this hot colt.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 KARAN'S NOTION (ML=7/2), #5 MOOSE LODGE (ML=9/2),

KARAN'S NOTION - This morning-line favorite ran on Oct 24th and hasn't had a workout after that. MOOSE LODGE - Doubtful that the speed figure he registered on September 26th will be enough in this event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #1 WONDER IN to win if we can get at least 5/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,7] Box [1,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[1,2] with [1,2,11] with [1,2,7,9,11] with [1,2,7,9,11] Total Cost: $24
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:	[1,2,11] with [1,2,7,9,11] with [1,2,7,9,11] with [1,2,7,9,11] with [1,2,7,9,11] Total Cost: $72

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Churchill Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Maiden Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $45000 Class Rating: 80

FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $150,000 HOURS PRIOR TO POST TIME FOR THE RACE.).

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 13 WELLMAN 5/1
# 9 HARD ASSET 8/1
# 7 KOUFAX 6/1

WELLMAN looks like the bet in here. His earnings per start in dirt sprint events alone makes you take a look at him. Is a definite contender - given the 76 Equibase speed fig from his most recent race. HARD ASSET - This colt has some longshot handicapping angles I like to play. His chances to prove victorious are much better this time out facing this easier field. KOUFAX - He should definitely be carefully examined given the quite good speed figures. Had one of the best Equibase speed figs of this group in his last race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park West

11/19/20, GPW, Race 3, 1.33 ET
11/19/20,GPW,3,7 1/2F [Turf] 1:26:03 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $42,000 (includes up to $6,000 FHBPA-FOA - FHBPA Florida Owners Awards). FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 122 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. (Preference To Horses That Have Not Started For Less Than $30,000 In Their Last 3 Starts). (If deemed inadvisable to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track at Seven Furlongs).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, WPC, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	3	Gunman	9/5	Zayas E J	Pletcher Todd A.	TSEL	41	39.02	2.04/$1
096.0723	6	Souper Watson(b-)	10/1	Vasquez M A	Casse Mark E.	W	57	38.60	1.72/$1
096.0228	2	Souper Energizer	7/2	Lopez P	Trombetta Michael J.	J	57	38.60	1.72/$1
094.0580	5	Snow Job	10/1	Camacho S	Nagle Sarah		57	38.60	1.72/$1
093.0921	8	Seek Him First	20/1	Bravo J	Stephens John D.		48	43.75	1.81/$1
091.9302	1	Seven Channels	3/1	Panici L	Lewis Lisa L.	C	57	38.60	1.72/$1
091.8823	7	Putman	6/1	Jaramillo E	Rodriguez Hector F.	F	57	38.60	1.72/$1
088.5186	4	Follow Q T R	20/1	Torres C A	Dwoskin Steven		57	38.60	1.72/$1

Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 34.4800, ROI 2.0483/$1
. . . .
100.0000 3 Gunman
[Category]Condition
[AllTurf]LastRacePurseNotLowerThanToday
If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, WPC, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	3	Gunman	9/5	Zayas E J	Pletcher Todd A.	TSFEL	206	34.95	1.25/$1
098.4109	5	Snow Job	10/1	Camacho S	Nagle Sarah		206	34.95	1.25/$1
098.1179	8	Seek Him First	20/1	Bravo J	Stephens John D.		206	34.95	1.25/$1
097.9935	2	Souper Energizer	7/2	Lopez P	Trombetta Michael J.	J	206	34.95	1.25/$1
097.0924	1	Seven Channels	3/1	Panici L	Lewis Lisa L.	C	206	34.95	1.25/$1
095.8978	6	Souper Watson(b-)	10/1	Vasquez M A	Casse Mark E.	W	206	34.95	1.25/$1
094.9338	7	Putman	6/1	Jaramillo E	Rodriguez Hector F.		206	34.95	1.25/$1
092.9781	4	Follow Q T R	20/1	Torres C A	Dwoskin Steven		206	34.95	1.25/$1

Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 33.6300, ROI 1.0398/$1
. . . .
100.0000 3 Gunman
[Category]Condition
[AllDirt]RaceDistanceSprint

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hakeem Profit

Event: (305919) Anadolu Efes at (305920) Khimki M.
Sport/League: BSKT
Date/Time: November 19, 2020 12PM EST
Play: Khimki M. +2.5 (-110)