Friday 11/20/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park West

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $17000 Class Rating: 85

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 20 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 TONS OF GOLD 5/2
# 6 THREE DEEP 3/1
# 2 RAGS FOR BRITCHES 4/1

TONS OF GOLD is my choice. Has performed solidly recently in route races, posting a nifty 78 avg speed figure. Tough to pass on this colt with Vasquez in the irons. Vasquez has recent ROI numbers which make this one a very good wager. THREE DEEP - May best this field here, showing very good numbers of late. Has performed strongly recently in route races, posting a nifty 80 avg Equibase speed fig. RAGS FOR BRITCHES - Will probably be one of the leaders of the bunch going into the midpoint of the contest. It's a good signal that Perez is using Meneses on this horse.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Stronach 5 - Race #4 - Post: 4:24pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 62

Rating:

#7 MS. HAITI (ML=6/1)
#10 BELLY FLOP (ML=4/1)
#6 POPEYE'S OYL (ML=6/1)
#3 SOLEA (ML=6/1)


MS. HAITI - Last ran at Charles Town and finished fourth. Reviewing her PP data, I see she was close at the end, within 5 of the winner. Smith will try adding blinkers today in hopes of an improved performance. BELLY FLOP - This filly is in good condition. Ended up second on Oct 22nd. This jockey/conditioner duo has been producing a very profitable ROI, right at +20. Have to forget about that last grass race. This filly should do better hitting the dirt in this race. POPEYE'S OYL - This jockey and trainer have a favorable ROI when they are put together. Looking at today's class rating, this pony is meeting an easier group than last time out at Laurel. SOLEA - Taking a trip down the ladder based on class; has the class ability to make her presence felt. You should disregard that last race at Laurel in the slop where she finished outside the top 3. Should do well today without the off-track conditions. Can't help but like the 2nd time addition of Lasix by the trainer today. What that tells me is Merryman thinks she can win.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 THUNDERINTHEVALLEY (ML=7/2), #5 WALK IT OUT NANNY (ML=8/1),

THUNDERINTHEVALLEY - Most of the time I need a sprinter to have some recent success in short distance affairs in order to support her. Notched a pedestrian speed rating last race out in a $10,000 Maiden Claiming race on October 16th. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that number. WALK IT OUT NANNY - 8/1 is not priced right for any racer in a sprint of 5 1/2 furlongs that hasn't finished in the money in a sprint clash lately. This filly finished out of the money on October 5th and wasn't near the winner in the last race either. Improbable that the speed fig she earned on October 25th will hold up in this event.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - BELLY FLOP - Analysis shows this filly's last speed number of 62 is as good as any. Don't overlook this filly in your gambling.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #7 MS. HAITI to win if we can get at least 5/1 odds

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Churchill Downs

11/20/20, CD, Race 3, 2.00 ET
11/20/20,CD,3,6 1/2F [Dirt] 1:14:02 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $29,500. FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 122 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Claiming Price $40,000.
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, WPC, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	5	Long Term Thinking	3/1	Gaffalione T	Asmussen Steven M.	JFE	118	33.05	1.22/$1
098.6858	3	War Detonator	5/2	Lanerie C J	Colebrook Ben	S	118	33.05	1.22/$1
097.2756	2	Treasury(b+)	10/1	Burke J	Mackey Wayne L.	W	118	33.05	1.22/$1
097.2007	8	Ekati Champagne	15/1	Beschizza A	West Ethan W.		118	33.05	1.22/$1
096.3863	6	Smoky Topaz	20/1	Mojica. Jr. R	Hernandez Rey		52	36.54	1.69/$1
096.2905	4	Deo Volente	10/1	Padron-Barcenas J	Hernandez Rey		118	33.05	1.22/$1
093.6542	1	Storm King	3/1	Santana. Jr. R	Asmussen Steven M.		52	36.54	1.69/$1
093.5432	7	Templet	4/1	Mena M	Margolis Steve	L	118	33.05	1.22/$1

Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 29.8700, ROI 0.9857/$1
. . . .
100.0000 5 Long Term Thinking
[Category]Condition
[DirtMdnMClm]RacePurseNotGreaterThan$50K

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Hakeem Profit

Event: (305925) Zenit Petersburg at (305926) Alba Berlin
Sport/League: BSKT
Date/Time: November 20, 2020 2PM EST
Play: Zenit Petersburg -4.0 (-115)

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Hakeem Profit

Event: (305933) Fenerbahce Ulker at (305934) Real Madrid
Sport/League: BSKT
Date/Time: November 20, 2020 3PM EST
Play: Real Madrid -8.5 (-125)

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Hakeem Profit

Event: (305931) Crvena Zvezda at (305932) FC Barcelona
Sport/League: BSKT
Date/Time: November 20, 2020 3PM EST
Play: FC Barcelona -13.0 (-110)

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Hakeem Profit

Event: (305935) Maccabi Tel Aviv at (305936) Valencia
Sport/League: BSKT
Date/Time: November 20, 2020 3PM EST
Play: Total Over 161.0 (-110)

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Tony Mejia

Event: (201801) Huesca at (201802) Osasuna
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: November 20, 2020 3PM EST
Play: Osasuna +146
Huesca came up from the Spanish Second Division after winning it last season but is bringing up the rear in La Liga as play restarts for matchday 10. It is the only team yet to taste a victory, posting six draws despite only three defeats. The fact they've played to so many ties creates some value for this number, especially since Osasuna comes off consecutive setbacks.
Los Rojillos fell to Atletico Madrid and at Sevilla, ending a three-match unbeaten run. With Chimy Avila not getting the call to join Argentina, he should be up at the point of attack. Huesca surrendered 10 goals over its last three October matches and played Eibar to a 1-1 draw at home in its only November showing, so this is a great situation for the Pamplona-based side to wind up in the top-half of the table once all the weekend action is in the books by securing all three points here. Ride Osasuna on the 3-way money line.

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Teddy Covers

Event: (329) New Mexico at (330) Air Force
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: November 20, 2020 9PM EST
Play: New Mexico +9.5 (-110)
Take New Mexico (#329)
Despite staying and practicing (and playing their home games) in Las Vegas due to COVID restrictions in New Mexico, the Lobos have hung tough against Hawaii and Nevada over the last two weeks, losing both games by a TD or less. Backup QB Trae Hall showed his mettle against the Wolfpack last week. The Lobos defensive weakness – against the pass – is not something that Air Force is primed to exploit. And if there’s one defensive coordinator in the country I want coaching against the option, it would be New Mexico’s Rocky Long and his 3-3-5 defense, a guy who has been designing successful defenses against Air Force for the last 20+ years. And it’s certainly not like Air Force (0-2 in Mountain West play) is some juggernaut who consistently runs up scores. Expect a battle, not a blowout. Take New Mexico.

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Bobby Conn

Nov 20 '20, 7:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Syracuse vs Louisville
Play on: UNDER 56½ -110

1* Free Play on Syracuse/Louisville under 56½ -110

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Jesse Schule

Nov 20 '20, 7:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Syracuse vs Louisville
Play on: Syracuse +20 -110 at Mirage

This is a Free play on Syracuse. The Orange are coming off a 16-13 home loss to Boston College, and they are now just 1-7 on the season. Their offense has been downright terrible, but it still seems a little optimistic for the Cardinals to be favored by three scores. The line is hovering around -19, which is exactly the number of points that Louisville lost to Georgia Tech by. That's the same Georgia Tech team that lost to Syracuse (the only win for the Orange). Freshman quarterback Jacobian Morgan made his first start in a loss to the Eagles, and while he threw for just 188 yards on 19-of-30 passing, he hasn't been too bad at turning the ball over. He comes into tonight's game completing over 70 percent of his passes for two TDs and one INT so far. That just might be good enough to get a cover here in Louisville. Cardinals quarterback Malik Cunningham has thrown more INTs (4) than TDs (3) the last two weeks. GL, Jesse Schule

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ASA

Nov 20 '20, 7:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Syracuse vs Louisville
Play on: Louisville -18 -110 at William Hill

ASA FREE PLAY ON: Louisville Cardinals (-) versus Syracuse Orange, Friday at 7:00 PM ET - Big number here but Syracuse has 3 road losses this season and those have come by a 20.7 point differential per defeat. Speaking of differentials, the Orange are being outgained by 200.6 yards per game and Louisville's offense is outgaining the Syracuse offense by 176.8 yards per game. The home team has won the last two meetings by a combined score of 110 to 57. Per our computer math model, another home blowout is likely in this one. The Cardinals have only failed to cover twice in the last ten meetings between these teams and their last 5 wins in this series have come by a combined 148 points! Another blowout here. Lay it! FREE PLAY Louisville (-) points

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Cole Faxon

Nov 20 '20, 7:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Syracuse vs Louisville
Play on: UNDER 56½ -110

FREE PLAY on Syracuse/Louisville under 56½ -110

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Frank Sawyer

Nov 20 '20, 7:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Syracuse vs Louisville
Play on: OVER 54 -110

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR FRIDAY, 11/20:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play on my cut list for Friday is with Over the Total in the game between the Syracuse Orange and the Louisville Cardinals. Syracuse (1-7) comes off a low-scoring 16-13 loss to Boston College two weeks ago but they have still played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in November. The Orange have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Louisville (2-6) looks to rebound from a 31-17 loss at Virginia last week. The Cardinals have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. And in their last 6 games at home, Louisville has played all 6 games Over the Total. Take the Over. Best of luck — Frank.

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Dustin Hawkins

Nov 20 '20, 7:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Syracuse vs Louisville
Play on: UNDER 55 -110

1 Dimer on Syracuse vs Louisville under 55 -110