Sunday 11/22/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-20-2020, 09:11 AM

Betting Recap - Week 10
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Patriots (+7, ML +270) vs. Ravens, 23-17
Giants (+4.5, ML +185) vs. Eagles, 27-17

The largest favorites to cover

Saints (-9.5) vs. 49ers, 27-13
Steelers (-7) vs. Bengals, 36-10
Buccaneers (-6) at Panthers, 46-23
Raiders (-3.5) vs. Broncos, 37-12

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Houston Texans-Cleveland Browns (46) matchup was boring. Boring, unless you like wild weather, defense and 'under' results, that is.

The Browns posted a field goal in the first half, and they led 3-0 through three quarters against the Texans in the wind and rain along the shores of Lake Erie. It's the second consecutive low-scoring weather game in Cleveland, and neither the Week 8 home loss to the Las Vegas Raiders, 16-6, or Sunday's 10-7 win over the Texans will be used in the Cleveland Chamber of Commerce video.

The Browns took a 10-0 lead with a RB Nick Chubb fourth-quarter touchdown run, and Texans (+4) side bettors were feeling awful. How could an offense with QB Deshaun Watson get blanked by a Browns D which had allowed 31.6 PPG across its first seven games? Well, the Texans were eventually able to break through for the backdoor cover, as Watson struck with a TD to TE Pharaoh Brown in the closing minutes of regulation.

Browns side bettors were exhilirated late, as Chubb broke through again for a 59-yard gallop and he was headed for the end zone and a cover in the final minute. Well, that is until he elected to voluntarily step out at the Houston 1-yard line. Instead of scoring and giving the ball back to the Texans, the Browns ended up kneeling twice to run out the clock, winning 10-7. The underdog held on for the cover, and Browns side bettors were left shaking their heads.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The Buffalo Bills-Arizona Cardinals (56) game will be remembered forever, as we had one of the craziest finishes in recent history. If you were a moneyline bettor for the Bills (+130), or you were holding an under ticket from earlier in the week when the total was 56.5, you were likely pulling your hair out.

The Bills struck for a 21-yard diving touchdown grab from WR Stefon Diggs from QB Josh Allen, putting the visitors up 30-26. It looked like that was going to be the game-winning play with just 34 seconds left in regulation, and the Cardinals having to drive the entire field. But there was more. Much more.

With just two seconds remaining, QB Kyler Murray evaded pressure, spun to his left and threw up a prayer to the left corner of the end zone into a sea of defenders. WR DeAndre Hopkins outjumped three white jerseys for the 43-yard miracle touchdown in what is being called the 'Hail Murray' play. The total was a push at most shops before the miracle play, but the touchdown made it an 'over' across the board.

That's not all, though. Arizona lined up for the two-point conversion, but that was to avoid a potential blocked extra point getting returned by the Bills. Instead, the Cardinals elected to take a knee. If they would have kicked the extra point, they would have pushed on the -3 line at most shops, and if they went on to covert for two, they would have covered. Crazy finish!

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part III

The Baltimore Ravens-New England Patriots (44) saw the same cold front and inclement weather which passed through Cleveland earlier in the day. We had a scoreless first quarter, but then a total of 23 points in the second quarter, and 17 in the third. There were 40 points on the board heading to the fourth, but that's when the weather picked up.

We saw zero points in the final 15 minutes, and the Ravens got the ball back in a deluge in the final minutes. QB Lamar Jackson tried to make it happen on the ground, but was forced to have to take to the air in a driving rain. It didn't work out well, and they weren't even able to get past midfield before turning it over on downs. It ended with a total of 40 points, short of the total thanks to the scoreless fourth.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board for the Sunday slate was the aforementioned Ravens-Patriots game.

The highest number on the board was the Bills-Cardinals game mentioned above, too. The second-highest game on the board was the Seattle Seahawks-Los Angeles Rams (55.5), and the 'over' was never threated. Seattle actually showed up and played defense for once.

The first quarter started looking like it might be a track meet, totaling 17 points through 15 minutes. We also had 30 points on the board at halftime, so it was on track for an 'over'. But we saw just nine points in the second half, cashing the 'under' rather comfortably.

In the first two primetime games of Week 10, the over/under went 1-1. Thursday's game between the Indianapolis Colts-Tennessee Titans (49) saw just seven points in the fourth quarter, but that was enough in the 34-17 win for Indy, cashing the 'over'. The primetime game was the soggy Ravens-Patriots battle, with the Minnesota Vikings-Chicago Bears (43.5) battle on Monday Night Football still pending.

So far this season the under is 20-11 (64.5%) across 31 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 11

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The total for Thursday's NFC West Division showdown opened with the highest total of Week 11 at 56.5, and it quickly shot up to 57.5 in the matter of a few hours. That's likely due to Arizona hitting the 'over' in three consecutive games, going for 32, 31 and 37 in the past three games, including a 37-34 overtime win by the Cardinals on Sunday Night Football in Week 7. The Cardinals are hoisting up 29.6 PPG to rank seventh in the NFL, and they're first in total yards (425.4) and rushing yards (168.9) per game. For the Seahawks, they hit the 'under' in Week 10 in a 23-16 loss to the Rams, snapping a 3-0 'over' run.

Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)

The Dolphins have rolled to five consecutive victories, moving to 6-3 SU overall. They have not only won five in a row, but they have covered every game, too, and they're 7-1 ATS in the past eight outings. For the Broncos, they're licking their wounds after a 37-12 beatdown from the Raiders in Vegas. QB Drew Lock tossed four interceptions, as the mistake-prone Broncos dropped their third in the past four, and they're also 1-3 ATS during the span. The 'under' result on Sunday, by just one point, snapped a 3-0 'over' run for the Broncos.

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Raiders have won three in a row since a 45-20 thrashing from the Buccaneers in Week 7. They have also covered those three games with the 'under' connecting in two of the outings. This will be the second battle betwen the Chiefs and Raiders this season, with the first installment going to Vegas, 40-32 in Kansas City in Week 5. That helped the Raiders win as 11-point underdogs while easily hitting the 'over'. The Chiefs are coming off its bye week. Kansas City has won four straight while covering three of the past four since that loss against the Raiders. K.C. has tossed up 33, 35, 43 and 26 in the past four outings, and they have scored 26 or more points in seven consecutive contests.

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Rams make the cross-country trek to Central Florida looking to win consecutive games for the first time since Oct. 4-11, but that was against the Giants and Football Team, not terribly impressive. L.A. is coming off a 23-16 win over the Seahawks, cashing on a three-point number while the 'under' (55) easily connected. The 'under' has hit in six straight games for the Rams. L.A. hasn't covered in back-to-back games since Week 1-2. For the Bucs, they bounced back with a 46-23 stomping of the Panthers on Sunday. After tossing up a season-low three points in Week 9 against the Saints, they scored a season-high 46. That's quite the rebound.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-20-2020, 09:12 AM

NFL odds Week 11: Opening lines, sharp money & line movement
Patrick Everson

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs should be rested and ready for their Week 11 Sunday night showdown against the Raiders in Las Vegas. The SuperBook opened Kansas City -6.5 and moved to -7 Sunday night.

NFL Week 10 has just one game left, while NFL Week 11 odds are on the betting board and already getting some action. The week starts strong with a Thursday night clash between the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks, and the Kansas City Chiefs have a revenge game Sunday night against the Las Vegas Raiders.

The SuperBook's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 11 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting. Covers will update this report with NFL sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the week.

NFL Week 11 Odds

These are the current NFL Week 11 odds, as of November 13.

Teams on bye: San Francisco 49ers, New York Giants, Buffalo Bills, Chicago

Cardinals at Seahawks Odds
Opening line
Seahawks -4.5, Over/Under 57.5

Why the line moved
Arizona converted a Hail Mary from Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins to notch a stunning 32-30 home victory over Buffalo, while a lackluster Seattle unit fell to the host Los Angeles Rams 23-16 Sunday.

"We opened Seattle -4.5 and quickly moved down to Seahawks -3.5," Murray said Sunday evening. "The move makes sense. People don’t trust the Seahawks. Their defense is no good, and even Russell Wilson has looked human the last couple of weeks. I expect very good handle on this game. This should be one of the better Thursday games of the season."

Eagles at Browns Odds
Opening line
Browns -3, Over/Under 45.5

Why the line moved
Philadelphia leads the NFC East, but that just makes it the least-awful team among a terrible bunch, as evidenced by its 27-17 road loss to the New York Giants on Sunday. Meanwhile, Cleveland got a much-need though unimpressive 10-7 win over Houston.

Eagles-Browns opened Cleveland -3 at The SuperBook and very briefly touched -3.5 Sunday night, before going back to -3.

"This game will be very one-sided. Nobody is looking to bet Philadelphia right now," Murray said. "The Eagles let bettors down in a big way today. This is already a lopsided ticket-count game, and I don’t expect that to change between now and next Sunday morning."

Falcons at Saints Odds
Opening line
OFF, Over/Under OFF

Why the line moved
Atlanta is coming off a bye week, and New Orleans probably wishes it had a bye week coming up. That's because quarterback Drew Brees suffered a rib injury and sat out the second half of the Saints' 27-17 home win over San Francisco.

Because of the Saints' uncertainty at QB, The SuperBook did not post this game Sunday night.

Lions at Panthers Odds
Opening line
OFF, Over/Under OFF

Why the line moved
This is another game The SuperBook is holding off on, after Carolina QB Teddy Bridgewater suffered a knee injury in Sunday's 46-23 home loss to Tampa Bay. Detroit, meanwhile, squeaked by Washington 30-27 on a 59-yard Matt Prater field goal as time expired.

Patriots at Texans Odds
Opening line
Texans -2.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
New England stunned visiting Baltimore in the Week 10 Sunday nighter, winning 23-17 as a touchdown underdog. On the flip side, Houston mustered just one score in a 10-7 road loss to Cleveland. The SuperBook opened at Texans -2.5, and the game came off the board once the Ravens-Patriots game kicked off. The line will go back up Monday morning.

Steelers at Jaguars Odds
Opening line
Jaguars +10.5, Over/Under 46

Why the line moved
Pittsburgh remained perfect with a 36-10 home rout of Cincinnati, improving to 9-0 SU, and the Steelers are tied with Miami for the league's ATS lead at 7-2. Jacksonville is almost the polar opposite at 1-8 SU (4-5 ATS), but challenged Green Bay and even led in the fourth quarter of a 24-20 road loss. The Steelers-Jags line ticked down a half-point Sunday night to -10 at The SuperBook, and there was no movement on the total.

Packers at Colts Odds
Opening line
Colts -1, Over/Under 48.5

Why the line moved
Green Bay got all it could handle in a 24-20 home win over hapless Jacksonville, while Indianapolis topped Tennessee 34-17 in the Thursday nighter.

"This may have been the game we discussed the most. Some had Green Bay favored, others had Indianapolis favored. We talked about just opening it pick’em and seeing where the market took us," Murray said. "Ultimately, we opened the Colts -1, because we know the wiseguys are very pro-Indianapolis. They bet the Colts hard on Thursday night and they hammered the Colts a week earlier in the game they lost to Baltimore.

"The Colts are a team that gets a lot of support from sharp players. This game sets up to be a huge Pros vs. Joes type game."

The first move came a couple of hours after the line went up, with The SuperBook shifting to Colts -1.5.

Bengals at Washington Odds
Opening line
Pick, Over/Under 46

Why the line moved
Cincinnati got rolled 36-10 at Pittsburgh in Week 10, and Washington was dealt a 30-27 road loss in the waning seconds on a 59-yard Detroit field goal. Early movement showed a little more interest in Washington, which ticked to -1 Sunday night at The SuperBook. The total also adjusted a tick, from 46 to 45.5.

Titans at Ravens Odds
Opening line
Ravens -7, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Tennessee roared out of the gate this season, winning its first five, but the Titans dropped three of four since then, including a 34-17 home setback to Indianapolis on Thursday. The Ravens had their hands more than full with the Patriots on Sunday night, losing 23-17 on the road.

"We opened the Ravens -7 and closed it when the Sunday night game kicked off," Murray said. "The Titans are in a freefall right now and are on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. Baltimore will get a lot of public play."

Cowboys at Vikings Odds
Opening line
Vikings -7.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Dallas is coming off a bye, while Minnesota still has Week 10 work to do in the Monday nighter at Chicago. Still, Murray and The SuperBook odds team opened the Vikings -7.5, and there was no line movement Sunday night.

Chiefs at Raiders Odds
Opening line
Raiders +6.5, Over/Under 54.5

Why the line moved
Las Vegas rolled over Denver 37-12 Sunday, while Kansas City rested during its bye week. Playing under the Sunday night spotlight, the Chiefs seek to avenge a 40-32 home loss to the Raiders in Week 5.

"It's painful to even talk about this game when we think about how great this night would’ve been for Chiefs and Raiders fans at Allegiant Stadium," Murray said, lamenting fanless games as COVID continues to soil the 2020 season. "We opened Chiefs -6.5 and quickly moved to -7 (even). This game will be just like Ravens-Patriots. All the parlays will roll to K.C. and K.C. moneyline. The Over will be a very, very public play as well. If the favorites cover all weekend – like they did today – then the books will be big-time Raiders fans next Sunday night."

Rams at Buccaneers Odds
Opening line
Buccaneers -4, Over/Under 49

Why the line moved
The Week 11 Monday nighter is a key NFC clash, and both teams are coming off wins: Los Angeles stymied Seattle 23-16, and Tampa Bay drubbed Carolina 46-23.

"We opened Bucs -4 and moved quickly to Bucs -3.5," Murray said. "We will need the Rams in this game, but how big remains to be seen. People may hesitate to bet the Bucs with both hands after their performance on Monday Night Football vs. the Giants and that Sunday Night Football disaster a week ago (against the Saints). There will be support for the Rams, too."

Dolphins at Broncos Odds
Opening line
Broncos +3, Over/Under 44.5

Why the line moved
Miami is 3-0 SU and ATS with Tua Tagovailoa starting, including Sunday's 29-21 home win over the Los Angeles Chargers, and the Dolphins have won five in a row SU and ATS overall. The Broncos got boatraced by Las Vegas 37-12 on the road Sunday and have lost three of their last four. The number was stable at Dolphins -3 Sunday night, though the price moved from -110 to even money.

Jets at Chargers Odds
Opening line
Chargers -9.5, Over/Under 46.5

Why the line moved
New York (0-9 SU, 2-7 ATS) found a way to not lose in Week 10 – by having a bye. Los Angeles has got to be the hardest-luck team in the league, sitting at 2-7, with all seven losses coming in one-score games. The SuperBook opened the Chargers -9.5 and didn't move Sunday night.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-20-2020, 09:13 AM

NFL betting tips for Week 11: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

Rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa is getting plenty of help from his team, with the Miami defense and special teams making huge plays since he took over the starting job.

Due to the expanded postseason, NFL teams with just a whiff of the playoffs can hold their motivation much further into the schedule than past years.

But as teams reveal themselves as either contenders or pretenders, it will still be vital to get the best of the weekly NFL spreads. It’s a tried and true NFL betting strategy.

These are our NFL betting tips for the spreads and totals to bet now, and the ones you should bet later.

Miami Dolphins (-2.5) at Denver Broncos: Bet Now

This spread is already popping up to a field goal with most books dealing the red-hot Dolphins -2.5 (-115). Miami is coming off an impressive victory over the Chargers in Week 10, picking up its fifth straight dub and winning six of its past seven contests, all while posting a 6-1 ATS mark.

Climbing the mountain to take on the Broncos is always a tough task. However, everything seems to be clicking with the Fins. From defense to special teams to Tua Tagovailoa: Miami is a sound machine that would make Gloria Estefan proud.

Denver is gushing points on defense, watching its last four opponents post an average tally of 36 points per outing. Quarterback Drew Lock threw four interceptions in the loss to Las Vegas on Sunday and takes on a dangerous Miami stop unit that’s cashing in on turnovers. If you like the Dolphins in Denver, get them below a field goal now.

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) at Cleveland Browns: Bet Later

If you’re looking to bet the Eagles – and I don’t know why you would be – wait it out in Week 11. Philadelphia opened +3 for this battle with the Browns and books are dealing Cleveland -3 (-120) or have already jumped to -3.5.

The Eagles are coming off a bad loss in East Rutherford as 4.5-point favorites visiting the Giants. Philadelphia sputtered on offense again and has averaged just under 21 points per game over the past three contests.

As bad as that is, the Browns attack is even worse. Cleveland has a grand total of 16 points in its last two games, including a 10-7 stinker of a win against Houston in Week 10. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has been miserable in those outings, completing 24 of his 45 total passes for a collective 254 yards and zero touchdowns. You could say Baker is sleepwalking out there, but it seems he’s getting plenty of Z’s on the sideline.

If you’re betting against the Browns in Week 11, wait it out and make sure you get Philly +3.5 (or more) before kickoff.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars (Under 46): Bet Now

The Steelers hit the road for the fourth time in the past five games when they go to Jacksonville in Week 11. Pittsburgh can pile up the points but it does see a downtick in production when away from Heinz Field. On the season, the Steelers are averaging 32.5 points at home—compared to only 26.2 on the road.

Thankfully, when the offense drags its toes (and not in that cool Santonio Holmes kind of way) the Pittsburgh defense picks up the slack. In fact, the Steel Curtain has been heavy since Week 6, allowing an average of just 16.8 points against in those five games.

Enter the Jaguars and rookie passer Jake Luton, who’s played pretty well in two pro starts but is far from blowing the doors off opponents. Jacksonville has totaled 25 and 14 points on offense in the past two games while facing defenses ranked near the backend of the league in DVOA. Pittsburgh is among the stingiest stop units in the land and near the top of the NFL in that metric. Take the Under before this creeps to the key number of 45.

Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts (Under 49): Bet Later

This total opened at 49 points and is starting to climb higher, with some 49.5 totals on the board as of Sunday night. If you’re leaning Under in this non-conference clash, pump the breaks and see if this Over/Under ticks toward 50 points before clicking submit.

The Packers are coming off a bad showing at home to the Jaguars, managing only 24 points and failing to cover as 13.5-point favorites. Green Bay has been spotty on offense and now faces a Colts stop unit that had a mini bye to prep for Aaron Rodgers after shutting down Tennessee last Thursday night.

Indianapolis ranks No. 1 in average yards allowed and has limited foes to only 19.7 points per game on the year. Granted, some of the Colts’ opponents so far were softer than a foam cheesehead, but they have checked their last three opponents (Detroit, Baltimore and Tennessee) to just 4.8 yards per play. Indy is also 1-3 Over/Under at home this year.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-20-2020, 09:13 AM

NFL Week 11 Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson

Drew Brees has been sidelined for several weeks with rib fractures and a collapsed lung, sinking the Saints' spread vs. the Falcons to -4.5.

NFL Week 10 is almost entirely in the rearview mirror, NFL Week 11 odds are on the board, and several betting factors are already in play. That includes the typical injury information, most notably some bad news out of New Orleans on Saints quarterback Drew Brees.

Week 11 Injuries

New Orleans Saints: The early best-case scenario is that Brees will miss two to three weeks, but it could be longer, after a Monday MRI revealed multiple rib fractures and a collapsed lung. Brees didn't play the second half of Sunday's home win over San Francisco. When the news hit Monday afternoon that Brees was out and Jameis Winston in, The SuperBook at Westgate posted the Saints -4.5 for Sunday's home game against Atlanta. Jay Kornegay, vice president of race and sports for Westgate, said Brees is worth 2-2.5 points to the spread, meaning the Saints would have been touchdown favorites against Atlanta.

Carolina Panthers: Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater apparently eluded a serious knee injury Sunday against Tampa Bay, spraining an MCL, and might be able to play this week against Detroit. However, The SuperBook is awaiting clarity on the situation before posting the Lions-Panthers line.

Detroit Lions: QB Matthew Stafford played through an injury to his right thumb in Sunday's win over Washington, but is having his thumb evaluated. The expectation is that he will play this week at Carolina. The SuperBook doesn't have the line on the board, due to the uncertain status of Panthers QB Teddy Bridgewater.

Denver Broncos: QB Drew Lock, who threw four interceptions in Sunday's loss at Las Vegas, has a minor rib injury, but it's enough to make his status uncertain for Sunday's home game against Miami. Denver opened +3 at The SuperBook and moved to +3.5 Monday afternoon. The total opened at 44.5 and reached 46, then dipped to 45 Monday afternoon.

Kansas City Chiefs: Left tackle Erik Fisher and right tackle Mitchell Schwartz were put on the reserve/COVID list, as was backup left guard Martinas Rankin. They could still play this week at Las Vegas, if they clear protocols. The SuperBook opened the Chiefs -6.5 and quickly went to -7, then dipped to -6 Monday afternoon before returning to the opening number.

Week 11 Weather

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: There's an 80 percent chance of daytime showers, but that tails off to 30 percent in the evening for this week's Thursday night game. However, the total was an early upward mover at The SuperBook, from 57.5 to 58.5, then ticked back to 58 Monday afternoon.

Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns: The early forecast calls for a 40 percent chance of rain, but as was the case in Week 10, wind could be the more noteworthy issue. Monday's prediction called for winds of 10-20 mph. That said, this total was on a speedy rise Sunday night through Monday morning, going from 45.5 to 48 at The SuperBook.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-20-2020, 09:13 AM

451PHILADELPHIA -452 CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) after the first month of the season in the last 2 seasons.

453ATLANTA -454 NEW ORLEANS
ATLANTA is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game in the last 3 seasons.

455DETROIT -456 CAROLINA
DETROIT is 9-28 ATS (-21.8 Units) vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 27 or more points/game since 1992.

457NEW ENGLAND -458 HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games after playing their last game on the road in the last 2 seasons.

459PITTSBURGH -460 JACKSONVILLE
PITTSBURGH is 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) after a home win in the last 3 seasons.

461GREEN BAY -462 INDIANAPOLIS
INDIANAPOLIS are 25-11 ATS (12.9 Units) in home games off a road win against a division rival since 1992.

463CINCINNATI -464 WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 19-5 ATS (13.5 Units) versus terrible defensive teams - allowing >=6 yards/play in the second half of the season since 1992.

465TENNESSEE -466 BALTIMORE
TENNESSEE is 17-37 ATS (-23.7 Units) in road games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored since 1992.

469DALLAS -470 MINNESOTA
DALLAS are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) against conference opponents in the current season.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-20-2020, 09:14 AM

NFL

Week 11

Eagles (3-5-1) @ Cleveland (6-3)
— Philly is 1-4-1 SU outside their division.
— Eagles are 3-0 if they allow 21 or fewer points, 0-5-1 if they allow more than 21.
— Underdogs covered seven of their nine games this season.
— Eagles are 10-6 ATS in last 16 games as a road underdog.
— Last four games, Philly allowed 156.5 rushing yards/game.
— Five of last seven Philly games stayed under the total.

— Browns scored 6-7-6 points in their losses, averaged 32.8 ppg in wins
— Cleveland won four of five home games, losing to the Raiders.
— Browns scored 10 or fewer points in three of last four games.
— Cleveland is 5-4-2 ATS in its last 11 games as a home favorite.
— Under is 3-1 in their last four games.
— Last four games, Browns were outscored 47-23 in first half.

— Eagles won last five series games.
— Philly won last three visits here, last two 34-31OT/17-16.

Falcons (3-6) @ New Orleans (7-2)
— Falcons won three of last four games, after an 0-5 start.
— Atlanta scored 30.3 ppg in four games since the coaching change.
— Atlanta led six of its nine games at halftime.
— Falcon opponents converted only 15 of last 46 third down plays.
— Atlanta is 7-4 ATS in last 11 games as a home underdog, 3-1 TY.
— Four of their last six games stayed under the total.

— Brees has fractured ribs/lung issues; Winston/Hill will split QB duties.
— New Orleans won its last six games, by 6-3-3-3-35-14 points.
— Saints allowed 20.3 ppg in their wins, 34-37 points in losses.
— New Orleans won four of five home games, winning by 11-3-3-14 points.
— Saints are 8-14 ATS in their last 22 games as a home favorite.
— Seven of their nine games went over the total.

— Saints won four of last five series games.
— Teams split last six series games played here; all three Saints wins were by 10+.

Lions (4-5) @ Carolina (3-7)
— Detroit lost its last two games, giving up 41-34 points.
— Lions allowed 487-464 yards in their last two games.
— Detroit is +6 in turnovers in its wins, minus-7 in its losses.
— Lions are 4-6 ATS in last ten games as a road underdog.
— Detroit was outrushed 483-263 in its last three games.
— Last three Lion games went over the total.

— Carolina lost its last five games, giving up 30.8 ppg.
— Panthers lost four of their five home games SU this year.
— Carolina lost four five home games, allowing 29.8 ppg.
— Panthers are 1-4-1 ATS in last six games as a home underdog.
— Carolina is 0-7 when they allow 23+ points, 3-0 when they allow 21 or fewer.
— Panthers allowed 8+ yards/pass attempt in their last three games.

— Carolina won seven of nine series games.
— Lions lost four of five visits here, with win in 1999.

Patriots (4-5) @ Houston (2-7)
— New England won its last two games, running ball for 159-173 yards.
— Patriots lost three of four road games, with win 30-27 over the Jets.
— New England trailed at halftime in five of its last six games.
— NE turned ball over 14 times in first six games, once in last three games.
— Last 4+ years, Patriots are 21-13-1 ATS as a road favorite, 0-1 TY.
— Three of their last four road games went over the total.

— Texans lost three of last four games; both their wins TY are over Jacksonville.
— Texans lost three of four home games, with losses by 7-8-15 points.
— Houston are 0-6 this year when they score fewer than 27 points.
— Texans’ last two games were decided by total of five points.
— Under is 4-2 in Houston’s last six games.
— Texans are 2-5 ATS in last seven games as a home underdog.

— Patriots won 10 of 12 series games, but lost 28-22 to Houston LY.
— Average total in last four series games is 54.0
— Teams split last four meetings played here.

Steelers (9-0) @ Jacksonville (1-7)
— Steelers won first nine games (7-2 ATS), scoring 30.1 ppg.
— Pittsburgh is 4-0 on road; last three road wins were by 4-3-5 points.
— Over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games.
— Steelers are +9 in turnovers this season.
— Pittsburgh is 2-6-2 ATS in last ten games as a road favorite.
— In their last five games, Steelers won field position by 9+ yards four times.

— Jaguars lost last eight games, but covered last two.
— Jaguars’ last two losses were by total of six points.
— Jacksonville gave up 31.3 ppg in their last eight games.
— Jaguars are 7-6-1 ATS in last 13 games as a home dog, 2-3 TY.
— Jacksonville has allowed 7+ yards/pass attempt in every game this year.
— AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 3-7-1 ATS.

— Pittsburgh won four of last six series games.
— Steelers won five of last six visits here, winning last three, by 5-8-4 points.

Packers (7-2) @ Indianapolis (6-3)
— Green Bay won/covered four of its five road games this year.
— Packers scored 30+ points in six of their wins; 10-22 points in losses.
— Green Bay converted 53-110 third down plays (48.2%)
— Packers are 6-6-1 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.
— Five of last six Green Bay games stayed under the total.
— Packers were outscored in second half of their last six games.

— Colts are 5-0 when they score 28+ points. 1-3 when they do not.
— Indy won three of four home games, losing to Baltimore.
— Colts played last Thursday, so they’ve had a mini-bye since then.
— Indy is 11-7-1 ATS in last 19 games as a home favorite, 2-1 TY.
— AFC South teams are 8-15 ATS outside their division.
— Four of their last five games went over the total.

— Colts won three of last four series games, winning last two 30-27/31-26.
— Average total in last six series games: 61.2.
— Packers lost last four visits here, by 27-3-14-3 points.

Bengals (2-6-1) @ Washington (2-7)
— Bengals lost four of last five games, but covered three of last four.
— Cincinnati is 6-2-1 ATS overall this season.
— Bengals are 0-4-1 SU on the road, losing by 5-24-4-26 points.
— Cincy is 13-7 ATS in last 20 games as a road underdog.
— Bengals led at halftime in four of their last five games.
— Three of their last four games went over the total.

— Washington lost its seven of last eight games, last two by 3-3 points.
— Smith threw for 715 yards the last two weeks; last week was his first start since he shattered his leg in 2018.
— Washington is 0-5 outside the division, losing by 15-14-15-20-3 points.
— Washington is 2-3 SU at home, losing by 14-20-3 points.
— Washington is 1-4 ATS in last five games as a home favorite.
— Under is 3-0-1 in last four Washington games.

— Cincinnati is 3-0-1 in last four series games.
— Last meeting ended in a 27-27 tie in London, four years ago.
— Bengals lost three of their five visits here, winning last one 38-31 in ’12.

Tennessee (6-3) @ Ravens (6-3)
— Tennessee allowed 31+ points in three of its last four games.
— Titans are 2-3 in their last five games, after a 4-0 start.
— Titans were outscored 78-48 in 2nd half of their last four games.
— This is Tennessee’s 2nd road game since September.
— Over is 5-2-1 in Titans’ last eight games.
— Titans are 7-6 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.

— Baltimore lost two of last three games, after a 5-1 start.
— Ravens allowed 17 or fewer points in five of six wins, 34-28-23 in losses.
— Baltimore split its four home games SU this year.
— Under is 6-3 in Baltimore games this season.
— AFC North teams are 14-6-2 ATS outside their division.
— Ravens are 7-13 ATS in last 20 games as a home favorite, 2-2 TY.

— Teams split last eight series games.
— Titans won three of last four visits here, winning 28-12 in a playoff game here LY.

Cowboys (2-7) @ Minnesota (4-5)
— Cowboys were outscored 110-41 in losing last four games; AAF alum Gilbert makes his 2nd NFL start here- his first road start.
— Last eight games, Dallas is minus-14 in turnovers.
— Cowboys are 1-8 ATS this year; their two wins by total of 4 points.
— Last four Dallas games stayed under the total.
— Cowboys are 0-5 SU on road, losing by 3-7-22-14 points.
— Dallas is 4-8-1 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.

— Vikings are 3-0 since their bye, running ball for 182.3 ypg.
— Minnesota covered six of its last seven games.
— Vikings allowed 27+ points in all five of their losses; they allowed 23-22-20-13 in wins.
— Minnesota has 12 turnovers (-8) in its losses, two in its wins (+5).
— Vikings are 5-2 ATS in last seven games as a road favorite (0-0 TY).
— Minnesota is 19-10-2 ATS in last 31 games as a home favorite, 1-2 TY.
— Vikings are 3-0 SU when they allow fewer than 27 points.

— Teams split last six series games.
— Cowboys lost five of last six visits to Minnesota, winning 17-15 in last one, in ’16.

Miami (6-3) @ Denver (3-6)
— Dolphins won/covered their last five games, scoring 31.6 ppg.
— Dolphins scored 20+ points in first half of four of those five games.
— Miami allowed 17 or fewer points in four of six wins; 21-31-31 in losses.
— Miami won three of four road games, losing season opener 21-11 in Foxboro.
— Dolphins are a road favorite for first time since Week 2 of 2017.
— In last three games, Miami has two defensive TD’s, a punt return for a TD and a blocked punt where they got the ball on the 1-yard line.

— Denver lost three of last four games, giving up 36 ppg.
— Broncos gave up 26+ points in seven of their last eight games.
— Denver lost three of four home games, losing by 2-18-27 points.
— Broncos are 9-5-1 ATS in last 15 games as a home underdog, 2-2 TY.
— Three of their last four games went over the total.
— Denver turned ball over 11 times (-7) in their last four games.

— Miami is 10-3-1 in last 14 series games, but lost two of last three.
— Teams are 4-4-1 in games played here; Dolphins’ last visit was 2014.

Jets (0-9) @ LA Chargers (2-7)
— Winless Jets are 2-7 ATS, losing road games by 10-29-24-26 points.
— Jets are 0-4 ATS as a road underdog this year, losing by 10-19-24-26 points.
— Jets have been outscored 49-7 in 2nd half of their last four games.
— Flacco is expected to get another start in place of injured starter Darnold.
— Five of their last seven games stayed under the total.
— AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 7-8 ATS.

— Since Week 2 of last year, Chargers are 2-16 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
— Bolts lost seven of last eight games, with five losses by 5 or fewer points.
— Last six Charger games went over the total.
— Chargers are 4-10 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite, 1-1 TY.
— In last four games, LA scored 18 TD’s on 57 drives; the rookie QB is good.
— In their last six games, Chargers gave up 31.3 ppg.

— Chargers won last three series games by combined score of 72-24.
— Jets won four of last six visits to San Diego; last one was in 2014.

Chiefs (8-1) @ Las Vegas (6-3)
— Chiefs won their last four games, covering three of them.
— Kansas City won all four road games this year, covering three of them.
— Chiefs are 8-3 ATS in last 11 games as a home favorite, 2-1 TY.
— Under is 5-3 in their last eight games.
— Chiefs covered five of last six post-bye games.
— Divisional home underdogs are 13-4 ATS in the NFL this year.

— Las Vegas won/covered four of their last five games overall.
— Raiders scored 31+ points in five of six wins; 20-23-20 in their losses.
— Las Vegas split their four home games SU.
— Raiders converted 19 of their last 37 third down plays.
— Seven of nine Raider games went over the total.
— Raiders are 7-8-2 ATS in last 17 games as a home underdog.

— Raiders (+11.5) upset Chiefs 40-32 at Arrowhead in Week 5; the team buses took a victory lap around stadium on their way to the airport, stirring the pot somewhat.
— Chiefs won 10 of last 12 series games, four of last five in Oakland.

Rams (6-3) @ Tampa Bay (7-3)
— Rams split their last four games, after a 4-1 start.
— LA has outscored opponents 106-35 in second half of games.
— Rams lost three of five road games; this is their 5th game in eastern time zone this year.
— LA’s last six games stayed under the total.
— Under McVay, Rams are 6-3 ATS as a road underdog, 1-1 TY.
— Rams lost veteran LT Whitworth last week; big loss for OL.

— Tampa Bay won seven of its last nine games.
— Bucs are 3-1 SU at home, losing last home game to New Orleans.
— Last 4+ years, Tampa Bay is 5-13-2 ATS as a home favorite, 1-1-1 TY.
— Last three games, Bucs were outscored 62-23 in first half.
— Tampa Bay is 7-0 when it scores 25+ points, 0-3 when it scores less.

— Rams won five of last six series games, but got waxed 55-40 at home by Tampa LY, when Rams were 3-0 and a 9-point favorite.
— Rams won last three visits here, by 15-2-5 points.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-20-2020, 09:16 AM

Hot & Not Report - Week 11
Matt Blunt

NFL Week 11 Betting Angles

Suggesting to back the teams off a SU loss against those off a SU win probably couldn't have gone any worse in Week 10. Only the earliest of bettors in the week got their with a win or maybe a push on the Arizona XP kneel down, and Jacksonville of all teams was the only winner of the entire bunch.

And there was never much of a sweat in that Jags game. But the L.A. Chargers, Cleveland, Denver, San Francisco, and Chicago failed to get there in the end, although it's not hard to argue that the 49ers and Bears were right there, and Cleveland, well we all know how that finished.

Fading the NFL team before a TNF appearance continues to work out rather well with the Seahawks going down and Arizona needing that final play to scratch out a SU win.

It might be time to shelve those pre-TNF fades for the rest of the year though, as theoretically you'd have to be willing to fade all six franchises playing on Thanksgiving next week, and the following week sees two of those six (Dallas and Baltimore) play on TNF again, but on a full week of rest.

Bringing it back for the final few TNF games of the year is always an option, but so much will be on the line in all likelihood then that expecting a team to “tank” when they aren't already expected to do so is tougher to trust then a TNF game in the middle of the year.

Hopefully we continue to find something that's usable as minor support for some, or even just a way to eliminate games of interest on the board. It's something that was discovered last week, but with all three applicable teams on bye week, it had to be shelved for another week. And it's got to do with everyone's favorite stat – points per game – and how following the conventional wisdom of backing strong recent form and fading poor recent form hasn't exactly worked.

Points per game can be a helpful number to look at, but when you sort them by best and worst over each team's last three weeks you come up with some interesting results since the start of Week 6.

Who's Hot and Not

Since the start of Week 6, the NFL team with the most points per game over their past three games are 0-4 ATS that week

Since the start of Week 6, the NFL team (not named NY Jets) with the fewest points per game over their past three games are 4-0 ATS (6-2 ATS overall including Jets results)

Let's start with unwrapping that angle first.

Points per game is a readily available number for every team and can often be sorted by home/away, certain situations (vs division etc), but the ones that can be sorted by week/date is where this comes in. Obviously keeping a running tally works too, but sorting those Points per game numbers get sorted by the last three games on a date after Week 5 and prior to Week 6 is all that effectively means.

For example, going into Week 6's action (Oct 14th-19th), the Cleveland Browns were running hot, averaging 38.3 points per game. Tops in the NFL over the past three games. What did Cleveland do in Week 6? Get blown out 38-7 by Pittsburgh.

The worst team in points per game that week? The New York Jets at 15/game, and right in front of them was Washington at 15.7/game. Washington got that backdoor cover against the Giants that week, while the Jets were blown out 24-0 in Miami.

There are the numbers for the start of this run, and since then we've had the following:

Most Points per Game (PPG) over their last three going into Week 7:
Tennessee at 38.3/game

Tennessee lost 27-24 as a -1 home favorite vs Pittsburgh

Fewest PPG over their last three going into Week 7:
NYJ at 12.7/game and Washington at 15.3/game

New York covered +9.5 at home vs Buffalo (18-10 loss)
Washington beat Dallas 25-3

Most PPG in last three going into Week 8:
Tennessee at 36/game

Tennessee lost 31-20 as -7 road favorites vs Cincinnati

Fewest PPG in last three going into Week 8:
NYJ at 6.7/game and New England at 9.3/game

New York lost 35-9 at +20 vs KC
New England covered +4 in a 24-21 loss to Buffalo

Most PPG in last three going into Week 9:
Tampa Bay at 36/game

Tampa Bay lost 38-3 as home favorites to New Orleans on SNF

Fewest PPG in last three going into Week 9:
NYJ at 6.3/game and Dallas at 7.3/game

New York lost 30-27 on MNF vs New England, covering +9.5
Dallas covered +14 vs Pittsburgh

Most PPG in last three going into Week 10:
Kansas City at 37/game

Fewest PPG in last three going into Week 10:
Dallas at 10.3/game and NYJ at 15.3/game

Who could you follow in Week 11?

Las Vegas
N.Y. Jets
Dallas

Which brings us to this Week 11 as those numbers haven't changed with Kansas City, Dallas, and the New York Jets all coming off their bye weeks. But the suggestions of fading KC and playing on Dallas and the New York Jets are highly intriguing no matter how you look at it.

Let's start with fading the Chiefs, who get another crack at the Raiders after Las Vegas upset them 40-32 as +11 road dogs about a month ago. Revenge angles and battle for first place narratives all want nothing to do with fading KC in this game, and it is tough to step in front of a team that are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.

But the number has dipped from an open of -7 on KC to -6.5 for the Chiefs now, and it's not like oddsmakers don't understand the revenge approach will be one many will lean on.

At some level it's taken into account, at least as much as it can be. So early Raiders support is out there and wouldn't it be something if the Raiders swept the season series against the defending champs, go to the playoffs and still finish behind that same Chiefs team. Crazier things have happened in this league.

Which leads into the Jets/Chargers game quite nicely since the winless Jets are getting more than a TD against a Chargers team that has a PhD in how to lose close games. Trusting the Chargers is agonizing tough for any bettor, let alone trusting them to win by a margin.

The fact that the discussion about this game in Survivor pools lingers around nobody can really handle putting their Survivor pool on the line with the Chargers makes me really like this Jets side initially. What other -7 or greater favorite against the Jets has anyone even considered that for this year?

But it would be full Chargers to just go out and comfortably win a game they are expected to win comfortably. Quarterback Justin Herbert looks like the real deal, and a 2-7 SU record should really be a hell of a lot better than it is. Eventually those results are too soul crushing to care much anymore about the rest of the year. Have the Chargers hit that stage?

Tough to imagine an extra week of prep time being bad for a team, but who knows what kind of hair-brained ideas the Jets staff could have concocted with all that extra time. But a winless team off a bye is already a spot where I'll lean towards taking the points as it is. Even if it does mean holding a tickets on the Jets – they have been 2-2 ATS in this run.

Which leaves Dallas and the +8 or so points they are currently getting at Minnesota. This starts a three-game homestand for the Vikings, all against teams they will be expected to beat – Dallas, Carolina, and Jacksonville. If the Vikings take care of business in those games it will be quite the turnaround for this team, and one I personally would have no problem seeing.

But I also see the potential for this to be a very bad spot for the Vikings as well this week, given that it may be the start of a homestand, but it's also coming off of three straight division games that were all wins for Minnesota. Hard not to have some sort of deep exhale after a stretch like that to effectively save their season, and now that the Vikings are the ones getting all the pats on the back, facing a bad team they are expected to beat up on isn't the most favorable betting scenario.

It means there is upside in Dallas as well this week, and if QB Andy Dalton and whatever he's got left is back ready to go, maybe this Cowboys team is a good team to buy on the cheap as well.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-20-2020, 09:17 AM

Tech Trends - Week 11
Bruce Marshall

Week 11 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday, Nov. 19 and we've identified betting trends and angles for all the matchups.

We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Sunday, Nov. 22

PHILADELPHIA at CLEVELAND
Eagles only 6-11 on board.
Browns lost four straight vs the line this year, and 3-9 over last 12 vs the spread since late 2019.

Tech Edge: Slight to Eagles based on team trends.

ATLANTA at NEW ORLEANS
Atlanta has won three of its last four games.
Atlanta has covered the spread in three of its last four games.
New Orleans is 2-3 vs the spread when playing at home this year.
New Orleans is 3-7 over its last 10 games vs the line when playing at home.
New Orleans has gone OVER the point total in nine of its last 11 games.

Tech Edge: Falcons and OVER based on team and point total trends.

DETROIT at CAROLINA
Matt Rhule is 1-4 vs the line when playing at home this year, Carolina is 1-7-1 in last eight vs line when playing at home.
Rhule is 0-2 vs the line when favored at home this year, Carolina is 0-4 as chalk dating to mid 2019.
Lions are 3-2 vs the line when playing on the road this year (0-3 at home).
Detroit has gone OVER the point total in eight of its last 12 games since late 2019.

Tech Edge: Lions and OVER based on team and point total trends

NEW ENGLAND at HOUSTON
Bill Belichick vs Romeo Crennel, one of Belichick's first 'disciples' to go out on his own and become a head coach.
Heading into last Sunday vs Ravens, Belichick is 1-4 vs the line this year but if getting points note a 14-5 mark since 2010 (1-2 this year, but close to 3-0).
Houston is 2-7 vs the line this year, and 2-8-1 vs spread over its last 11 games

Tech Edge: Patriots based on team trends.

PITTSBURGH at JACKSONVILLE
Pittsburgh has won nine straight games this year.
Pittsburgh is 7-2 vs the lne this year (tempted to throw out 2019 results with no Ben Roethlisberger almost all season).
Piittsburgh has gone OVER the point total in six of its last eight games this year
Jacksonville has covered the spread in two straight games, but just 6-11 over last 17 games vs the line since mid 2019 (3-5 this year).
Jacksonville has gone OVER the point total in 13 of its last 22 games.

Tech Edge: Steelers and OVER based on team and point total trends.

GREEN BAY at INDIANAPOLIS
Green Bay is 6-3 vs the line this year.
Green Bay has gone OVER the point total in seven of its last 11 games since late 2019.
If gettiing points, Colts are rarely a home underdog (1-0 since 2018).
Upon a time in the 60s, this was one of the rivlaries in the NFC.

Tech Edge: Slight to Packers and OVER based on team and poiint total trends.

CINCINNATI at WASHINGTON
Cincinnati has gone OVER the point total in 10 of its last 13 games since late last year.
Washington has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games

Tech Edge: Bengals based on recent team trends.

TENNESSEE at BALTIMORE
Tennessee is 0-3 vs the line when playing on the road this year (but back to scene of crime in playoffs lat January when they won in Baltimore).
Tennessee has gone OVER the point total in 17 of its last 22 games since Ryan Tannnehill took over at quarterback (though playoff game was UNDER).
Tennessee has won 15 of its last 22 games since Tannehill took over at quarterback.
Baltimore is 4-4 vs the line in its last eight home games.

Tech Edge: OVER and slight to Titans based on point total and team trends.

DALLAS at MINNESOTA
Dallas is 0-4 vs the line when playing on the road this year.
Dallas is 0-6 vs the spread when playing on the road snce late 2019.
Dallas is 1-8 overall vs the points this year.
Dallas has gone UNDER the point total in four straight games this year.
After Monday night, Minnesota has covered the spread in six of its last seven games
Minnesota has gone OVER the point total in five of its last six games

Tech Edge: Vikings based on recent team trends.

KANSAS CITY at LAS VEGAS
Revenge for Kansas City after a 40-32 home less on Oct. 11.
Kansas City is 7-1 vs the line in last eight road games
Kansas City is 4-4 vs number over last eight games as the series vistor after previous domination in role.
Andy Reid is 15-3 vs number over last 18 games since mid 2019.
Las Vegas is 2-2 vs the line at Allegiant Stadium.
Las Vegas has gone OVER the point total iin six of its last nine games this year

Tech Edge: Chiefs based on extended trends.

MIAMI at DENVER
Miami has covered the spread in 16 of its last 21 games since early 2019.
Miami has covered the spread in five straight games, and seven of its last eight this year.
If underdog, note Denver is 11-7 in role (11-4 if taking out Kansas City).
Denver has gone OVER the point total in three of its last four and four of its last six games this year.

Tech Edge: Dolphins and OVER based on team and point total trends .

N.Y. JETS at L.A. CHARGERS
New York has covered the spread in two of its last three games after failing to cover its first six games.
Chargers are 1-7-1 over last nine games when favorites, and 2-10-1 over last 13 in the role.
Chargers have gone OVER the point total in six straight games this year.
New York has gone UNDER the point total in four of its last five games this year.

Tech Edge: Jets and OVER based on team and point total trends.

Monday, Nov. 13

L.A. RAMS at TAMPA BAY
Los Angeles has failed to cover the spread in two straight road games after covering nine of 11 on road prior.
Los Angeles lost to Bruce Arians 55-40 at home last year.
Tampa Bay has gone OVER the point total in six of its last 10 games this year, and 18 of its last 26 since last year.
Arians has gone OVER the point total in 33 of his last 49 games since mid 2016 with Arizona.

Tech Edge: OVER based on point total trends.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-22-2020, 08:12 AM

Al Cimaglia: Pompano Park Pick 4 Analysis

November 22, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Pompano Park starts the week with an 11-race card featuring Sunshine State Sires Stakes action. The 0.50 Pick 4 begins in Race 6. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a low 12% takeout and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

2-Cool Like That (7/5)-Takes a bump up after being an easy winner in Pompano debut. Hennessey sticks over #5 and a repeat is a distinct possibility.
5-Autotune Hanover (4-1)-Also was a winner in PPk debut and tonight Wallis steers. There is gate speed inside so may need to find some cover and grind it out. This race could set up for a closer and this 7-year-old can win that way.
7-Jimi Wind Ricks (8-1)-Holiday's choice over the 6 stayed inside last week and that was his 1st start in almost 3 weeks. Has the gate speed to get a good seat. That might be the plan and should offer a nice price.

Race 7

1-BNB (12-1)-Got away leisurely in 1st Pomp start. Then followed the 6/5 choice before it stalled which led to a 3-wide trip. That's not a recipe for success. Looking for a more alert start and the trip should be smoother at a good price.
2-Live Lucky (20-1)-Started from post 8 last week in Pompano debut. Raced 3-wide but still managed to pace the 2nd half in 55.4. Price shot makes 2nd start in the Blood barn and double-digit Dave is back between the pipes.
7-Sand Sniper (4-1)-Hoosier invader was bet down last week and stalled when pulled. Program comment indicates broken equipment. Hennessey sticks and will use in a race without a true standout.
10-Stellar BB (5/2)-Got on the engine and didn't look back. Off that effort will include, even from this post. Did win from the 2nd tier at HoP which isn't the same. But it does show a win not starting with a nose on the gate.

Race 8

3-Loud Splash (6-1)-Wasn't used hard from the 8 hole at this class last week. Doesn't have big gate speed but can be put in play from this post. Should bring a better effort after having a race at the track.
6-Maxdaddy Blue Chip (9/2)-Did face tougher foes out East and rallied sharply off a brisk pace last week. Should be tighter tonight, previous race was on 10/10.
8-Ideal Feeling (5-1)-Five-year-old was cashing checks at the Big M and did win last week at this class from post 9. Has the gate speed to do the same once again.

Race 9

6-Rockntouch (7/5)-Drops after tuning-up last week and now Hennessey takes the lines. Eight-year-old has 29 wins in 121 starts at the Pomp. This is a spot to shine but doesn't have much gate speed so will need a trip.
8-Darling's Dragon (7/2)-Like the morning line chalk, has been facing better on the East coast. But has the gate speed to be put in play off the gate. Looks like a player with a smooth trip.

0.50 Pick 4

2,5,7/1,2,7,10/2,6,8/6,8
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-22-2020, 08:13 AM

Jeff Siegel's National Best Plays - 11/22/20

November 22, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Best Plays for Sunday, November 22, 2020

Churchill Downs Third Race – Post time: 2:00 ET
7 – Miss Tapirado (3-1)

Finally makes her debut late in her 3-year-old season after bringing $1.3 million at the 2019 Keeneland April 2-year-old-in-training sale, where she recorded the fastest breeze in the preview session (:10 flat) over a muddy track. The daughter of Tapit from Alcibiades S.-G1 winner My Conquestadory is a full-sister to the good colt Bourbon War and has trained well enough in recent weeks to be fit and ready in this maiden main track one-turn mile for fillies and mares. Drawn comfortably outside, the W. Mott-trained should have every chance to score at first asking and should offer value at or near her morning line of 3-1.

*

Churchill Downs Fourth Race – Post time: 2:30 ET
5 – Starrininmydreams (5/2)

Loved the way this juvenile colt scored at first asking over the local main track in September, pressing the pace in hand to the top of the lane and then taking over when called upon to win with authority. His pedigree suggests he’ll handle today’s extra distance just fine, and with a strong, healthy series of recent workouts the son of Super Saver looks primed to handle this raise in class. J. Talamo stays aboard for D. Stewart, so at 5/2 on the morning line let’s make him a win play and rolling exotic single.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-22-2020, 08:14 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Aqueduct - Race #3

#4 My Boy Tate	Veteran aired against open foes at Parx, drew outside the chalk, and seems in better form too; call to post the mild surprise.
#3 Funny Guy	Stiff ML favorite is the class, but the distant 4th last tie was meek, he's had a hard year, and he'll be overbet; second-best.
#1 T Loves a Fight	Neat veteran keeps on keeping on, has run well against the top pair this year, and will be a square price too; hardly impossible.
Race Summary	You won't get rich on the 4 but that 5-2 ML seems fair since there's only the 3 to fear and he might be going the wrong way, so play the pick aggressively to win and place, while getting some added value by singling him in the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since budget players will be doing the same with 'Guy, which means a win by 'Tate would knock a lot of tickets out of both sequences.

Aqueduct - Race #5

#3 Duckphat	Firster goes for Natalia Lynch, who is trying to get her first career win, and this is a daughter of Quality Road ho has a slew of works, that last 11/17 drill really stands out, and the price will be a lot better than the chalk; can surprise.
#1 Brattle House	Strong ML favorite cost 775k, a huge sum for a Malibu Moon (60K) NYB, and Clement is 27% with firsters, but the rail is never easy on a firster, and OXO doesn't have a great track record with these expensive buys; trying to beat.
#7 Flower's Fortune	FL invader was 2nd in a slow race on debut, and while she figures to improve, the top pair look like runners, and anything remotely close to that 4-1 ML would be a massive underlay, even for Jeremiah and Irad; underneath only.
Race Summary	Tab the tote on the 3, as you want to see her live and taking money into the teeth of the 1, and if that's the case you can play her in all the slots, and you'll really get some value by using her to end the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since budget players will use the chalk as an anchor, even though there's reason to believe she might not be the goods.

Aqueduct - Race #9

#7 Sadie Lady	Speedy miss was a distant 3rd against open last time and seems to have a race flow edge here, at what will be a very playable price too; look out.
#5 Prairie Fire	Stalker closed from way out of it last time in a race that fell apart, but the 12-1 is long gone, as today you'll get about 7-5; plenty scary, but no lock.
#3 Officer Hutchy	Heavy hitter was a close 4th behind the 5 last time, and she ran the better race after chasing early, but she's another who will be overbet; not sold on.
Race Summary	The price will be right on the 7, and she might be a Lone F too, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, as she figures to fall through the wagering cracks, which means a win over two strong favorites would go a long way in adding plenty of value to both sequences.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-22-2020, 08:15 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #5

#3 Luxero	Worth a longshot swing here in a spot where nobody really seems all that imposing on paper. The price should be right in what feels like a wide-open race on paper.
#9 Dandy Yankee	Looks to be coming into this the right way with a forward-looking worktab for a team that can get them ready to roll out of the box. ML price would seem fair.
#12 Jungle Cry	Draws out wide for a barn that has been connecting on all counts this meet, and he can avoid any early trouble while outside.
Race Summary	Luxero should offer a fair price in a race with several intriguing first-timers, and those who have run haven't shown a whole lot so far.

Laurel Park - Race #7

#7 Erawan	Posted the 23/1 upset score in the debut going a one-turn mile, and he should be able to put his tactical pace to use again here while stretching around two turns and trying winners.
#5 Market Cap	Has been moving in the right direction through three starts and finally put things together with a romping win last time out. Another step forward keeps him there.
#4 Basso	He has run a couple of pretty quick races in recent starts, but he'll be stretching past six furlongs for the first time, and I will take a stand against if he's only offering something like the 9/5 ML price. Capable but worth playing against.
Race Summary	Erawan steps up to face winners off the debut win -- never an easy task -- but he did it the right way in the debut and earned a decent figure for it. If he has some upside, look out.

Laurel Park - Race #8

#9 Alwaysinmotion	Went evenly from close range in the slop at first asking, and perhaps some dry land will allow her to show something better while stretching around two turns. Pedigree is a bit sprint oriented, so demand a fair price.
#3 Closertotheheart	Bit interesting that she drops in for a tag for the first time after a really useful underneath effort with stakes company, as a maiden special weight win is within her reach. The one to beat, but not everything about this feels good.
#4 Lucky Lorraine	Has failed to mount a serious threat in three recent starts as the chalk, but she steps up off the claim and probably isn't too far off what it would take to grab a big piece of this.
Race Summary	Closertotheheart probably wins this at a short price on the big drop, and while it doesn't feel truly panicky, it's certainly not a strong endorsement to have her in for the tag here after that last one.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-22-2020, 08:17 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park West - Race #1

#1 Buenisimo	Drops out of a maiden special on debut, gets hot-riding Jaramillo and moves over to the turf; lands in a good spot and he an probably close throughout.
#8 The Kukri	Has been competitive in two GPW starts, with a second in his first off a layoff, and a follow-up third; stretches out and can be a big player for this price and distance.
#10 Congrats Again	Tired last out and but can be effective in his first turf race; has good speed and can overcome his post to get a decent trip.
Race Summary	Buenisimo tried maiden special weights and now makes a drop in class in his first over turf; should be able to run a big one for this tag.

Gulfstream Park West - Race #4

#2 Takestwotowiggle	Has been stuck on third in her last three but has been running for higher levels; won a race here last year and can get back to the winner's circle this time around.
#3 Nenita	Was runner-up in her last two, each at this level, and can adjust to any pace; keeps hot-riding Lopez up and is good enough to be in the mix late.
#7 Lavi	Drops to the bottom level after being stakes placed along the way; can't explain the drop but she should be good enough to be a player here.
Race Summary	Takestwotowiggle is in decent form and can get a good pace in front of her; makes a good run most of the time and should be able to out-finish these.

Gulfstream Park West - Race #5

#4 Zulu	Closed with a rush and just missed in his first over this course and can make another big run here.
#8 Dundalk	Was on the board in his last seven races and can press throughout; will have a big hand in the pace.
#11 Myamanoi	Has been off since Saratoga in September and has been in some good spot; was a closing fourth in the Dania Beach at GP.
Race Summary	Zulu will follow a solid pace and will make a run at the leaders late; will have to get tied on earlier since this is one mile. Seven-time winner very capable of reeling in his competition.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-22-2020, 11:07 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero

Camarero - Race 6	Quinella / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double 6-7
Claiming $4,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 69 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 5:00P
FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 6, 2020 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 21, 2020 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 21, 2020 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. STRONG SURVIVOR is the Lone Front-runner of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * WICKED WITCH: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. CYBERICA: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. GIRL FROM BERLIN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. GOLD CERTIFICATE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
6	WICKED WITCH	2/1	5/1
4	CYBERICA	5/1	6/1
8	GIRL FROM BERLIN	3/1	6/1
1	GOLD CERTIFICATE	10/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	STRONG SURVIVOR	3	15/1	Front-runner	50	59	50.0	50.0	35.0
4	CYBERICA	4	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	66	67	72.2	56.8	47.8
6	WICKED WITCH	6	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	62	70	53.6	62.2	58.7
8	GIRL FROM BERLIN	8	3/1	Trailer	72	65	55.5	52.9	47.4
2	ALWAYS BELLA	2	10/1	Trailer	60	62	16.6	53.0	40.5
1	GOLD CERTIFICATE	1	10/1	Alternator/Trailer	67	66	57.7	50.9	38.4
9	OPPORTUNE	9	4/1	Alternator/Non-contender	69	69	73.5	51.6	46.1
7	MAIN RULER	7	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	67	57	54.0	48.2	34.7
10	COUNT WIN	10	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	46	43	43.6	22.8	5.3
5	AWESOME FOXY LADY	5	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	51	56	37.0	26.5	13.5