Service Plays Saturday 11/28/20

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Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
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College Football
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Baseball
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College Basketball
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NBA
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NHL
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Utah State at Wyoming canceled

Arizona State vs. Colorado canceled

Ole Miss vs. Texas A&M postponed

Louisiana Tech vs. UL Monroe canceled

Georgia Tech at Miami postponed

Charlotte at Marshall canceled

Wake Forest at Duke canceled

SMU vs. Houston postponed

Navy at USF postponed

Central Arkansas at Louisiana canceled

UNLV at Colorado State canceled

Texas at Kansas postponed

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Dave Cokin

5% CFB TOP PLAY

Nevada

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Louisiana Tech at FIU canceled

Western Kentucky at Charlotte moved to Tuesday, Dec. 1

Arkansas at Missouri postponed

Tennessee at Vanderbilt postponed

Vanderbilt will now play at Missouri Saturday

Tulsa at Houston postponed

Minnesota at Wisconsin canceled

Cincinnati at Temple canceled

Oklahoma vs. West Virginia postponed

Colorado at USC canceled

Colorado will now host San Diego State Saturday

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Emory Hunt

MISS -9.5
MISSST @ MISS | 11/28 | 4:00 PM ESTYESTERDAY 2:11 PM
This was a chaotic game last year that came down to the wire. Mississippi State played inspired football last week vs. Georgia, and had a great chance to win. But, as we saw in that game, Mississippi State still had issues defending the deep ball. Expect Ole Miss to work touchdown-to-checkdown in this game, racking up a lot of points in the process.

4-0 IN LAST 4 MISSST ATS PICKS | +400

3-0-1 IN LAST 4 MISS ATS PICKS | +300

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Barrett Sallee

OVER 49
UGA @ SC | 11/28 | 7:30 PM EST7:20 PM
Georgia's defense has been pretty rough since the loss to Florida, and its offense suddenly looks like a force now that quarterback JT Daniels has emerged as the starter. What’s more, South Carolina interim coach Mike Bobo is a former Georgia star quarterback and offensive coordinator who would love nothing more than to pull out all of the stops to threaten his alma mater. This will get into the 60s.

20-10 IN LAST 30 CFB PICKS | +903

OVER 55
OKLA @ WVU | 11/28 | 7:30 PM EST7:17 PM
These are the top two offenses in the Big 12, and suddenly oddsmakers think that this won’t be a typical Big 12, wide open shootout? Nah. Granted, Oklahoma’s defense has gotten better during the course of the season, but it won’t shut down the Mountaineers entirely. Give me Spencer Rattler and the Sooners over the Mountaineers in a game that dances near the 80-point mark.

20-10 IN LAST 30 CFB PICKS | +903

OVER 55
PITT @ CLEM | 11/28 | 3:30 PM EST7:15 PM
Clemson coach Dabo Swinney will want to get quarterback Trevor Lawrence back into a groove after the star junior has missed a month due to COVID-19 and the cancellation of the Florida State game. Lawrence is going to have to come out hot, because Panthers quarterback Kenny Pickett will shred a Tigers secondary that has been a disappointment in 2020.

20-10 IN LAST 30 CFB PICKS | +903
3-0 IN LAST 3 CLEM O/U PICKS | +300

COLO +12
COLO @ USC | 11/28 | 3:30 PM EST7:13 PM
Did I miss the part when the Trojans suddenly became trustworthy? No? Then why on Earth would you lay 12 points on them against the Buffaloes? In case you hadn’t noticed, Colorado is halfway decent. The Buffaloes are averaging 478.5 yards per game and 5.94 yards per play through two games. Yes, it’s a small sample size, but the small sample size of USC football suggests that it will play up or down to its competition.

20-10 IN LAST 30 CFB PICKS | +903

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ESPN Chalk:
preston Johnson (22-14)

CFB:
maryland over 62.5
UNC over 67
ole miss over 67
boise over 58

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Doc Sports

5 units baylor-5.5
4 units over-60.5-nevada
3 units california-1.5
3 units over-55-pitt

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Scott Spreitzer

7 units nevada -7

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Vegas Sports Informer

6 units pitt/clemson over 55

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Week 13 college football best bets: ND plus UNC equals lots of points
ESPN Betting Insiders
Every Thursday during the season, Doug Kezirian (5-3 last week, 29-20 overall), Bill Connelly (1-2, 14-16), Preston Johnson (2-1, 22-14), David M. Hale (1-1, 14-16) and Seth Walder (0-1, 4-7) will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.

Here are their best bets for Week 13 of the college football season.

Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Wednesday (unless otherwise indicated).



New Mexico Lobos (-6.5, 51.5) at Utah State Aggies, Thursday, 7 p.m. ET

Walder: No coach, no quarterback, no problem? That's what we're hoping for here. FPI likes the Aggies, and thinks the Lobos ought to be only a half-point favorite on the road. But it's also unaware that Gary Andersen was let go after an 0-3 start and starting quarterback Jason Shelley was dismissed from the program for an unspecified violation of team rules earlier this month. Those seem like pretty valid reasons for the betting line to favor the Lobos more than FPI.

On the other hand, according to ESPN's real plus-minus metric for college football, Shelley was worth -7.2 points per game -- the second-worst RPM of any qualifying college football player in the country. In other words, a change at QB probably isn't the worst thing for the Aggies.

Pick: Utah State +6.5


No. 2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-5, 67) at No. 19 North Carolina Tar Heels, Friday, 3:30 p.m. ET (on ABC)

Johnson: Both of these offenses rank in the top 10 in the nation in success rate. They are both top 45 in pace. Defensively, the Irish are substantially better -- that's why they are laying five points on the road. But the Tar Heels are particularly exploitable against the run. They rank 104th in EPA defending rushing attempts. Notre Dame will generate points here, and I expect North Carolina (No. 5 in success rate, No. 7 in EPA) to keep up. I have this game projected in the low 70s.

Pick: Over 67


Maryland Terrapins at No. 12 Indiana Hoosiers (-11.5, 62.5), noon ET (on ESPN2)

Johnson: This Maryland offense with Taulia Tagovailoa under center can move the ball (see the Minnesota and Penn State games). The Terrapins' performance in the opener against Northwestern, after an awkward offseason, doesn't look nearly as bad anymore either. The Maryland offense ranks No. 9 in EPA and No. 29 in success rate. The defense, however, ranks outside the top 100 in both efficiency metrics. Does everybody remember what Michael Penix Jr. just did to Ohio State's defense in Columbus? He threw for nearly 500 yards. Expect more of the same from the Hoosiers and for Tagovailoa and company to do plenty as well.

Pick: Over 62.5


Texas Tech Red Raiders at No. 23 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-11, 55), noon ET

Connelly: Unless Oklahoma State responds poorly to last week's Bedlam loss -- and the Cowboys have had quite a bit of practice in responding to Bedlam losses at this point -- I don't see how this one stays within two touchdowns. OSU still has the Big 12's best defense, or something close to it, and Texas Tech has topped 24 points just once in the past six games. The line is currently 11 points, while SP+ predicts something more like 36-19.

Yes, Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders' injury status is iffy, and backup Shane Illingworth had a horrible outing against Oklahoma. But Texas Tech's defense isn't Oklahoma's. I'll be quite surprised if this one's close.

Pick: Oklahoma State -11


Florida Atlantic Owls (-6.5, 48.5) at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, 3:30 p.m. ET

Connelly: The Florida Atlantic defense is worth the price of admission. The Owls are allowing just 11 points per game and have allowed 30 points in the past four games combined. Marshall is the best team in Conference USA, but the FAU defense might be the best single unit.

It's also the only good unit in this game. Middle Tennessee's passing game is fast and efficient, but the Blue Raiders make no big plays, and Florida Atlantic allows none. The Owls are by far the dominant team in the red zone as well. MTSU will have to work the ball inch by inch down the field, then produce seven points instead of three on its rare scoring opportunities. The line approximates a 27-21 (or so) Florida Atlantic win, and while I'm not sure FAU can get to 27, I would be floored if MTSU got to 21.

Pick: Florida Atlantic -6.5

EDITOR'S PICKS

A year after his infamous leg lift, Elijah Moore looks for redemption in latest Egg Bowl

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Ole Miss Rebels (-9.5, 67), 4 p.m. ET (on SEC Network)

Kezirian: Last week's 24-point outburst was an anomaly for Mississippi State. The Bulldogs still have an inept offense, failing to exceed 14 points in four of their seven games, and are incapable of keeping up with the Ole Miss offense. Say what you want about Lane Kiffin, but the guy can coach offense. The Rebels rank 11th in FBS at 6.9 yards per play and fourth at 10.9 yards per pass attempt. We saw what they did to Alabama (48 points), and the Rebels have had two weeks to prepare for this game. Laying double digits in a rivalry game is not always encouraged, but this year's Egg Bowl calls for it.

Pick: Ole Miss -9.5

Johnson: I have no clue why this total starts with a "6" this week, besides the 6-13 mph winds in the early forecast (not very significant). Because it's a rivalry game? I haven't seen anything historically that tells me rivalry games go under the total more frequently than not. This is a total I have projected in the 70s, with an Ole Miss defense ranked 123rd of 127 teams both in EPA and success rate. If Mike Leach can't score on this defense after dropping 24 on Georgia last week, then so be it. On the other side, Ole Miss ranks in the top 25 offensively in both efficiency metrics and seventh in pace. Leach. Lane Kiffin. Points. Over.

Pick: Over 67


San Jose State Spartans at Boise State Broncos (-11.5, 58), 4 p.m. ET

Johnson: I love the over here, with a Boise State offense that ranks top 11 in both EPA and success rate despite playing multiple games without its starting quarterback earlier this season. The offenses that San Jose State has faced to this point pale in comparison. And defensively, this has been as underwhelming a unit as Boise State has had in some time.

Pick: Over 58


Kansas State Wildcats at Baylor Bears (-5.5, 46), 7 p.m. ET (on ESPN2)

Hale: One of the great joys of college football is the completely earnest usage of phrases like, "Baylor is the best 1-5 team in the country." But it's true! The Bears are No. 36 in ESPN's FPI, 18 spots ahead of Kansas State. All five of Baylor's losses have come by 11 points or less, and the Bears were tied or ahead in the second half in three of them. More importantly, Baylor's defense is really good (No. 22 in defensive efficiency), and K-State's offense is a mess since quarterback Skylar Thompson went down with an injury, culminating with a 45-0 loss to Iowa State last week. Baylor should win this one handily, and then we can update our description to "the best 2-5 team in the country."

Pick: Baylor -5.5

Connelly: I can't fathom Baylor being favored by 5.5 points against anyone in the Big 12 (sans Kansas, of course) at the moment. The Bears have lost linebacker Terrel Bernard for the season, and most of their plus players on offense are either out or dealing with an injury. Their first game without Bernard was a loss to Texas Tech (the second-worst team in the conference), and while it was just a one-point loss, SP+ saw something closer to a 10-point loss based on the stats.

SP+ thinks Baylor wins, mind you, but it sees this game as more of a toss-up -- the Bears by 4.3 points, with a 60% win probability. I'm giving Kansas State a couple more points because of Baylor's injury situation. The Wildcats just laid a big egg themselves against Iowa State, and there's a chance they've checked out. But if both teams are checked in, I like K-State to cover.

Pick: Kansas State +5.5


Arizona Wildcats at UCLA Bruins (-8.5, 68), 8 p.m. ET

Hale: Is Chip Kelly finally turning the corner at UCLA? Saturday's closer-than-expected loss to Oregon certainly created a few converts, even if we've been down this road before with the Bruins (remember last year's three-game winning streak?) only to watch them revert to obscurity. Instead, what we're more interested in here is just how awful Arizona is. A year ago, the Wildcats beat UCLA 20-17 at home, then went to Colorado and won, bringing their record to 4-1. They haven't won a game since. In fact, this season's collapse against USC was the only game during this stretch of nine straight defeats that Arizona lost by less than 10 points. The dumpster fire at Arizona is ready to turn into an outright inferno.

Pick: UCLA -8.5


Nevada Wolf Pack (-7, 60.5) at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, 11 p.m. ET

Kezirian: The undefeated Wolf Pack are a solid football team and just demonstrated that with an impressive road win over San Diego State. Normally, they would be ripe for a letdown, especially facing lengthy travel, but this is a game Nevada has been eyeing for a while. Hawaii waxed the Wolf Pack last year in Reno, 54-3. Hawaii has a respectable pass defense but a weak rush defense. Nevada does not run the ball that effectively, so I am slightly concerned. However, this Hawaii team is inferior to squads from recent years. They are not that tough, and the offense is inconsistent. And maybe the road trip isn't that daunting? The Rainbow Warriors have covered only four of their past 16 conference home games.

Pick: Nevada -7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stanford Steve and The Bear: Week 13 college football picks, bets, nuggets
play
College football's best bets of Week 13 (1:22)
Nov 25, 2020
Chris FallicaSteve Coughlin
College football is in full swing in 2020, and it's unlike any season we have had before. One thing is familiar, though: "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica breaking down games as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets and totals worth wagering on. How will the guys fare this week?

Here is your guide to Week 13 of the season from the two college football analysts. (Games postponed or canceled because of COVID-19 have been removed.)

Records

Stanford Steve (0-1 last week, 21-12 overall)

The Bear (3-2, 18-17)

The plays


No. 22 Auburn Tigers at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-24.5, 62.5)

The Bear: When Alabama is a big favorite and supposed to handle Auburn, it typically does. Even without wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, the Tide offense has been putting up points and yards at will. I'm still not sure what to make of Auburn. That was hardly an emphatic win over Tennessee last week, which can be added to the list of unimpressive wins over Kentucky, Arkansas and Ole Miss. Nick Saban won't be on the sideline, but I think this team is out for a bit of revenge from last year and will be just fine Saturday.

Pick: Alabama -24.5


No. 2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-5, 67.5) at North Carolina Tar Heels

NFL & CFB Best Bets
NFL: Eliminator picks for Week 12
NFL: Every team's record vs. the spread
CFB: Best bets for Week 13
CFB: AP Top 25 poll reaction
PickCenter: NFL | CFB
Chalk home | NFL home | CFB home
Stanford Steve: Remember when we backed the Brinks truck up to lay it on the money line when Notre Dame hosted Clemson a couple of weeks ago? Well, hopefully you still have some of that money because we need it this week for another Notre Dame game. As scary as the Tar Heels are with Sam Howell at QB (550 yards and six TDs last time out), I still think the game will be won at the line of scrimmage. We think the world of what Mack Brown is doing in his return to Chapel Hill, but we just think the Irish win the game.

Pick: Money line (-210) on Notre Dame (Notre Dame 34, North Carolina 32)


Pittsburgh Panthers at No. 3 Clemson Tigers (-24, 55)

Stanford Steve: The thought is the same as it was last week. You think Dabo Swinney is going to get Trevor Lawrence back and tell him to hand the ball off to Travis Etienne? I don't think so. Lawrence will come out and chuck the ball all over, and I think Pitt's offense actually brings a little bit to the table with Kenny Pickett playing well since his return, throwing for over 600 yards and the team scoring 88 points in the past two games. We'll take the over.

Pick: Over 55 (Clemson 45, Pitt 21)


Nebraska Cornhuskers No. 24 Iowa Hawkeyes (-13.5, 53)

EDITOR'S PICKS

College football Week 13 betting nuggets

The best college football player you don't know, a different kind of rivalry week and more for Week 13
The Bear: These games have been close each of the past two years, and I think the line is a little inflated because of how last week's games went, as Nebraska lost as a 16-point favorite and Iowa blew out Penn State in State College. As bad as it has been for Nebraska, the Huskers were in the game with Northwestern, just like Iowa was, and easily could have won that game. The 13.5 just seems like a few too many points in this spot.

Pick: Nebraska +13.5


UMass Minutemen at Liberty Flames (-37, 56.5)

Stanford Steve: Stay with me here. One team (UMass) averages 4.0 points a game and the other (Liberty) averages 37. Liberty is fresh off a loss to NC State, a game in which Flames QB Malik Willis threw three interceptions. He now has only four on the year. I think Walt Bell and his Minutemen can get to double-digits and Liberty does more than their part. The Flames beat UMass 63-21 last year. We'll take the over here too.

Pick: Over 56.5 (Liberty 45, UMass 17)

The Bear's money line parlay

$100 returns $37

UCF -2400
TCU -2000
Clemson -2000
Georgia -1600
Alabama -2400
Western Michigan -1300
Ohio -2000
Ohio State -4000
Texas A&M -560

The Bear's underdogs to play on the money line, in round robins and parlays

Utah State +195
Ball State +300
South Alabama +210

Bear Bytes

No. 22 Auburn at No. 1 Alabama

• Alabama has been greater than a 20-point favorite three times vs Auburn. The Tide won and covered all three, winning 52-21, 49-0 and 42-14.

No. 2 Notre Dame (-5, 67.5) at North Carolina

• The Irish have not lost a game as a favorite since 2017 at Stanford. That's a 29-game win streak as a favorite.

Pittsburgh at No. 3 Clemson (-24, 55)

• Pitt was a 21-point underdog when it upset Clemson in 2016. The Panthers are currently 24-point underdogs.

No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes (-28.5, 71) at Illinois Fighting Illini

• Illinois was a 30.5-point underdog last year when it upset No. 6 Wisconsin. The Illini are 28.5-point 'dogs to No. 3 Ohio State this week. Road favorites of at least 22 points are 2-9 ATS this season.

LSU Tigers at No. 5 Texas A&M Aggies (-14.5, 64)

• LSU has covered each of the past nine meetings with the Aggies.

Maryland Terrapins at No. 12 Indiana Hoosiers (-11.5, 62.5)

• Indiana is the only 5-0 ATS team in the country. Maryland has won outright as a double-digit underdog each of its past two games and will try to win a third straight game as a double-digit 'dog.

No. 13 Iowa State Cyclones at No. 17 Texas Longhorns (-1, 57)

• Iowa State has been in 13 games with a spread between -3.5 and +3.5 under Matt Campbell and is 3-10 in those 13 games with seven losses by four points or fewer. The Cyclones are 0-4 ATS against Texas under Campbell.

Colorado Buffaloes at No. 18 USC Trojans (-12, 64)

• Since 2017, USC is 3-11-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite. The Trojans have won all 15 games, with five of them coming by four points or fewer and seven decided by one possession.

Arizona Wildcats at UCLA Bruins (-10, 68.5)

• Under Chip Kelly, UCLA has been favored seven times. The Bruins have lost five of the seven outright and are 1-6 ATS, including a one-point loss to Arizona in 2018 as a 9.5-point favorite.

[rocky57]

H&H Sports (CFB) - Triple Dime Pittsburgh/Clemson Over 56.5

[golden contender]

Rob V: Saturday Comp Play

Saturday Card has the BIG 12 Game of the year, a CFB Platinum Supreme move and a rare 6*. There is a top level EPL Soccer play and NCAAB. Comp Play below.

The comp play is totals play for Saturday on the Under in the Troy St vs Appalachian St game in college football. This game fits a powerful totals system. The last 2 years these 2 have gone under. App St has a powerful defense and has gone under in 4 of the last 5 games. Troy has stayed under in 10 straight games. Look for this game to be lower scoring. Play Troy and Appalachian ST Under the total. On Saturday a huge college football card is up with a Platinum Supreme move, the BIG 12 Game of the Year and a rare 6* TOP level release. There is also College hoops and Soccer. See us on facebook to jump on. For the comp play take the under in the Appalachian St at Troy game. Rob V- GC Sports.

[rocky57]

Kevin Davis (VegasInsider)
CFB
Kansas State +200 (Moneyline)
Kansas State +5.5
Northwestern -13
Mississippi State/Mississippi Over 69
Navy/Memphis Over 62