Service Plays Sunday 11/29/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NY Post
Dunleavy (22-11) Mia -7; Sea -5; Pit -4.5
Serby (20-12-1) Gia -5; Jets +7; Ten +4
Kussoy (19-14) Hou -2.5; Dal -3; Min -4.5

Loftis (10-23) Gia -5; Min -4.5; Cle -6.5
Schwartz (10-21-2) Dal-3; Buf -6; Pit -4.5
Cannizzaro (13-20) Det +2.5; Dal -3; Pit -4.5
Blezow (13-17-3) Gia -5; LAC +6; Cle -6.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NY Daily News
P. Leonard (9-2) Ari -2.5
K. Wagner (9-2) GB -7.5
T. Biersdorfer (8-2-1) KC -3
A. Clayton (7-4) KC -3
W. Pakutka (7-4) Cle -6.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Colin Cowherd Blazing 5 (25-29-1)
Buf -6
Gia -5.5
Ten +4
Chi +9.5
Sea -6

[rocky57]

Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider Sunday Night Football
Bears vs Packers

NFL
Best Bet - Bears/Packers Under 44.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr. Bob

2* KC/TB 1H OVER 26.5
1* SF +7.5
1* SF/LAR UNDER 46.5
.5* Cle -6.5
.5* LAC/Buf OVER 53

[citybeat]

OSKEIM SPORTS
All Football Plays
Game: (257) Cleveland Browns at (258) Jacksonville Jaguars
Date/Time: Nov 29 2020 1:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Total Over 49.0 (-110)

This game falls into very strong 30-5 ATS and 21-3 ATS totals systems of mine that invest on the OVER in games involving one team with a point differential of minus-7 or worse versus opponents that have allowed seventeen points or less in three consecutive games. Cleveland should be able to move the chains at will against a porous Jacksonville defense that is ranked 31st in the league in both Total DVOA and Pass DVOA.

Cleveland's offense is ranked 19th in Pass DVOA but that rating is grossly misleading in that the Browns played two games against the Raiders and Texans in conditions that were approximately 18 points below average conditions combined. Cleveland's offensive line has performed well this season, ranking 1st in Second Level Yards (1.62), 3rd in Running Back Yards (5.15), 3rd in Open Field Yards (1.10) and 10th in Adjusted Sack Rate (5.4%).

Cleveland's offensive line allowed just two pressures on 22 pass-block snaps against Houston in Week 9 and should dominate the trenches against a Jacksonville front seven that is dead last in Adjusted Sack Rate (3.5%). Despite playing in terrible weather twice this season, Baker Mayfield is 14th among qualified quarterbacks in QBR (71.3) and he should have a solid day against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. The Browns are 16-5 OVER in road games versus teams allowing 7.5 or more yards per pass attempt, including 7-0 OVER in the second half of the season.

Jacksonville is averaging 26.15 seconds per play, which is the 6th fastest pace in the NFL this season. And the Jaguars have the opportunity to exploit a subpar Cleveland secondary that is ranked 20th in Pass DVOA despite playing the 28th easiest schedule. The Browns will be without their top defensive player for a second consecutive game as defensive end Myles Garrett was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list last week. Garrett had been leading the NFL with 9.5 sacks and his absence gives Jacksonville a fighting chance to move the chains.

Jacksonville is 17-6 OVER after scoring six points or less in its previous game and 10-2 OVER at home following a double-digit home loss. With Cleveland standing at 8-1 OVER in road affairs off one or more consecutive UNDERS since 2017, take the OVER and invest with confidence.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ultra sports 11/29

new england
indianapolis
buffalo

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc Lawrence

NFL - 4* Game 252 - Falcons (+3) - NFL GOW
Edges - Falcons: 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS versus AFC West opponents, including 5-0 SUATS as a dog; and head coach Raheem Morris 14-9-1 ATS against opponents coming off a loss … Raiders: 4-10 SU and 3-10-1 ATS as a non-division road favorite, including 1-9 SUATS versus losing opponents; and 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS away off a loss when facing NFC South opponents … We cement the call with this from our NFL Perfect System Club as it tells us to: PLAY AGAINST any sub .850 NFL single-digit road favorite off one loss-exact that was preceded by a 3-0 SUATS win streak if they are facing a foe coming off a loss of 14 or more points if the foe won 8 or fewer games last season. That’s because these deflated road favorites are 0-15-1 ATS in this role since 1980. In addition our powerful database note that NFL home dogs who started the season 0-4 are 10-0 ATS since 1990 as home dogs from Game Five out when coming off a SU and double digit ATS loss in which they scored fewer than 10 points when facing an opponent that surrendered 20 or more points in its previous game. With that, recommend a strong 4* play on Atlanta. Thank you and good luck as always.

NFL - 3* Game 269 - Forty Niners (+7)
Edges - 49ers: Head coach Kyle Shanahan 15-7 ATS away in games with an Over/Under line of fewer than 49 points, including 6-0 ATS the last six; and Shanahan 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS from Game Eleven out away in games with an Over/Under line of fewer than 49 points … Rams: Head coach Sean McVay 8-15-1 ATS in games when coming off consecutive wins, including 0-5 SUATS the last five, and McVay 4-13-1 ATS in games when coming off consecutive wins when not favored by 9 or more points, including 0-4 ATS in division games … Our powerful database seals it with these two winning angles - 1) NFL division favorites of 2 or more points coming off a Monday Night SU underdog win are 0-15-1 ATS since 1993 when facing a foe whose team net YPR (Yards Per Rush) is positive; and 2) NFL dogs on a 0-3 SUATS exact streak are 10-5 SU and 11-4 when coming off a Bye week since 1980, including 5-0 SUATS from Game Seven out … With the Niners rested and getting key injured starters back in the lineup today, we recommend a strong 3* play on San Francisco 49ers. Thank you and good luck as always.

NFL - 3* Game 272 - Buccaneers (+3.5)
Edges - Bucs: QB Tom Brady 14-1 ATS career as a dog off a loss, including 10-0 ATS against foes coming off a win; and head coach Bruce Arians is 10-1 SUATS in his NFL career as a non-division home dog, including 8-0 SUATS versus foes coming off a win as well as 6-0 SUATS when his team is coming off a loss … Chiefs: 1-6 ATS all-time as a favorite versus NFC South opponents, including 0-4 ATS when KC is coming off a win … With Brady 3-0 SUATS at home in his career when coming off a home loss, we recommend a 3* play on Tampa Bay. Thank you and good luck as always.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ESPN Chalk

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NFL Week 12 best bets: Picks for every Sunday game
By ESPN Betting Insiders

Every Friday during the NFL season, ESPN betting analysts Doug Kezirian (2-5 last week, 12-23 overall), Joe Fortenbaugh (2-6, 24-40), Anita Marks (5-3, 38-56-1), Preston Johnson (0-2, 11-18), Mike Clay (0-1, 11-10) and Tyler Fulghum (1-6, 27-40-1), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (1-4, 20-14), Seth Walder (3-2, 36-18) of ESPN analytics and Aaron Schatz (3-1, 24-33-1) of Football Outsiders will tell us what they like from Sunday's slate.

Sunday's 1 p.m. ET games

Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills (-5.5, 53.5)

Bearman: Overs hit on 59% of games through the first four weeks of the season, but over the past seven weeks it has been 50-50. That does not seem to matter to these two teams. Seven straight Chargers games have gone over the total, and L.A. is 7-2 since Justin Herbert took over as the starter. The Chargers' totals during that seven-game stretch have been 69, 57, 68, 61, 57, 50, 62, respectively, for an average of 60.1 points per game.


Not only are the Chargers scoring in bunches, but the defense isn't stopping anyone either. They've allowed at least 28 points to the past seven opponents, including the lowly Jets, who scored four touchdowns against them last week. Meanwhile, the over is 8-2 in Bills games this season, tied for the highest mark in the league. The Bills were involved in back-to-back shootouts with Arizona and Seattle and have a defense ranked in the bottom half of the league. If both teams hit their season averages, they are already at the total, so factor in both defenses not playing well and you have makings of a 30-27 game.

Pick: Over 53.5

Fortenbaugh: Buffalo is coming off its bye week and has had two weeks to prepare for this game. Meanwhile, the Chargers are making their second trip to the Eastern Time Zone in three weeks. Allow me to flash some trends in order to demonstrate the gravity of the situation the Bolts are facing in Week 12: First, rookie quarterbacks who play for California teams are 1-14 straight up when playing in the Eastern Time Zone since the merger. Second, the Chargers are 1-9 straight-up and 0-10 against the spread over their past 10 games when facing an opponent coming off the bye. Lay it with Buffalo and don't look back.

Pick: Bills -5.5

Walder: Normally I find myself liking longest reception unders, but this Mike Williams over really stuck out to me. Williams' reputation as a deep-ball, contested catch receiver is backed up by the numbers. Among wideouts with 125 routes run, Williams ranks ninth in depth 3 seconds after the snap and seventh in air yards per target. To be fair, there's reasonable concern about a potential lack of volume here; his 18% target rate is below average but hardly disastrous (77th out of 110 qualifying receivers). But I'm OK with that for two reasons: this is a pretty low line for a deep threat, and Williams takes advantage of his opportunities at an above average rate. Williams has recorded a completion percentage substantially over expectation in all three seasons after his rookie year (spanning a QB change, too), so it's quite apparent he makes more catches than an average receiver would given the targets he does receive.

Pick: Williams longest reception over 20.5 yards (-115)

Miami Dolphins (-7, 44) at New York Jets

Johnson: Before we all get up in arms over Brian Flores' decision to bench Tua Tagovailoa for Ryan Fitzpatrick on Sunday in Denver, Flores has already made it clear that Tua will be the quarterback for Miami in Week 12. What was interesting about how the offense struggled was that it shouldn't have come as a surprise. Humble brag here, but I was preaching it all week. In Tua's first two starts against the Rams and Cardinals, the Dolphins were outgained by nearly 500 yards, despite going 2-0. Do you know how hard it is to win games despite being outgained so massively? It's not sustainable. Tua showed flashes in those three weeks, but the offense was far from effective. The Dolphins followed with a game against the Chargers in which they started six of their possessions in Chargers territory.

Now it seems like the market is catching up, and, because it's Joe Flacco and the Jets on the other side, everyone rushed to bet the under at 46 earlier this week. I'm not sure it's the right side, however. For starters, it's still the Jets on defense. If Tua is going to find success, a defense that ranks 31st in success rate against the pass is a great candidate. On the other hand, as much as I hate to put some stock into this, Flacco led this Jets offense to 27 points against the Patriots and 28 in Los Angeles against the Chargers. The Jets' pass protection has improved, and Flacco has taken advantage of opportunities through the air, especially with the deep ball (hashtag things I didn't think I would type this season).

The weather looks to be good, and my projection is spot on with where the market opened this one at 46. With 44 and 45 being relatively key landing spots for game totals in this range, at this point, I'd look to play against the move over the total of 44.

Pick: Over 44

Marks: Regardless who starts at quarterback for the Dolphins, they will be in a much better situation than Sam Darnold, who is expected to start this week for the Jets. NY's offensive line is dealing with a plethora of injuries, specifically at right tackle. Meanwhile, Miami gets DT Christian Wilkins back from the COVID-19 list.

The Dolphins are coming off a disappointing loss to Denver in Week 12, but they are still in the postseason hunt. I expect Brian Flores to have his guys ready to beat the 0-10 Jets, and DeVante Parker should take full advantage of the Jets secondary.

Pick: Parker scores and Dolphins win (+190 at DraftKings)

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5, 51.5)

Walder: This line surprised me. FPI considers the Titans and Colts to be almost identical in overall strength -- 1.3 and 0.9 points above average per game on a neutral field, respectively -- though they get there in very different ways. And I'm guessing that's what's driving this difference. The Colts have been the better team, efficiency-wise, this season. But that has been fueled by their defense, while the Titans have the far superior offense. The latter is more repeatable, and that's what gives FPI its confidence that these teams are equal going forward. In addition, the Titans' passing offense is particularly good -- it ranks third in EPA per pass play -- so I think there's even more upside for this run-heavy unit if it decides to take advantage of that passing attack more.

Add in a 2020 weakened home-field advantage and the Titans seem like value getting more than a field goal.

Pick: Titans +3.5

Fortenbaugh: Since 2000, when teams meet two weeks after their first matchup, the team that emerged victorious in the first encounter has gone 7-17-1 against the spread in the rematch. That's the daunting task facing the Colts, who will look to defeat division-rival Tennessee for the second time in 17 days on Sunday. The Colts are coming off that monster win over Green Bay, so I wouldn't be surprised to see public money show up in support of Philip Rivers and company. Remember, Tennessee is 3-1 on the road this season.

Pick: Titans +3.5

Marks: Michael Pittman Jr. has become the man in the Colts' wide receiving corps, leading in targets, catches and yards over the last three weeks. His first game against the Titans, he put up over 100 receiving yards, and last week he posted 66 and a touchdown against the Packers.

Pick: Pittman over 54.5 receiving yards (-115)

New York Giants (-5.5, 42.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

Marks: The Giants are 5-0 ATS as a road underdog this season, and every week Daniel Jones and the offense get better. They have scored on 70% of their red zone possessions over the past three games, and Jones has limited his turnovers. The Giants are coming off a bye with a rested, physical and underrated defense heading to the Queen's City. And the Bengals will be handing over quarterback duties to Brandon Allen, who struggled in three starts last season, completing under 50% of his passes and tossing only three touchdowns. Lay the points.

Pick: Giants -5.5

Marks: Since Devonta Freeman went on IR, Wayne Gallman has been the lead back for the Giants, rushing 54 times for 199 yards over his last four games. He has a juicy matchup against a Bengals rush defense that has allowed more runs of 15 to 20 yards per carry than any other team over the last month.

Pick: Gallman over 57.5 rushing yards (-115)

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5, 49.5) at New England Patriots

Bearman: I can't seem to get a Patriots game right this year (faded them two weeks ago vs. the Ravens and took the Patriots last week in their loss in Houston), but I am sure of this: The Cardinals are a much better team here, and laying less than a FG has value. Arizona has 10 days' rest since losing to Seattle in a tight back-and-forth game and should be able to move the ball against a leaky New England defense. The Patriots have had trouble against mobile QBs this season, with Russell Wilson, Josh Allen, Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes all having the ability to create mismatches and move the ball vs. them. They did limit Lamar Jackson, but you have to wonder how much the weather played a part in that one. They had no answers last week for Watson, who had 380 yards from scrimmage and three total TDs and moved the ball at will.

The Pats are allowing 6.2 yards per play (30th in the NFL) and 8.4 pass yards per play (last in the NFL). Now they get the league's top offense, as Kyler Murray and the Cardinals are averaging 414.3 yards per game. The Cards are in the thick of the NFC West race and need this win with the Rams on deck.

The Patriots' postseason chances took a big hit in Houston, and betting against Bill Belichick as a home 'dog (13-3 ATS) isn't always advised. But if you have watched both teams this season, you wouldn't be afraid here. As far as traveling east and playing at 1 p.m. on Sunday? The Kliff Kingsbury/Murray squad is 5-2 ATS in these spots.

Pick: Cardinals -2.5

Cleveland Browns (-6.5, 49) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Bearman: No one wakes up and says, "Man, I want to lay a TD on the road with the Browns." In fact, according to ESPN Stats & Information research, you couldn't have done that anytime recently as this is the largest road spread the Browns have had since Bill Belichick was on Cleveland's sideline in 1995. And none of the trends support it either, as Baker Mayfield is 1-5 ATS as a road favorite and the Browns had failed to cover in four straight before knocking off the Eagles last week. However, that doesn't mean they haven't played well, and, remember, it is the Jaguars on the other sideline.

Playing in bad weather conditions the past three weeks, the Browns have struggled to score (38 total points) but have also played great defense (allowed only 40). The Jags upset the Colts in Week 1, lost at the buzzer in Week 2 to Tennessee and haven't done much since, losing nine straight. The silver lining of keeping it close vs. the Packers and Texans disappeared in a blowout loss to the Steelers last week. The QB carousel music now stops at Mike Glennon, who is making his first start since 2017 with the Bears (is there anyone who hasn't started for the Bears?). I don't see the Jaguars accomplishing much here, but I don't feel comfortable laying a TD with the Browns either. I will be playing the Browns in eliminator pools and teasing them close to a pick 'em.

Bearman: Browns -.5 in a teaser with Packers -2.5

Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings (-4, 48.5)

Schatz: What we have here are two teams that have been better than their win-loss records indicate. The Vikings have gotten a lot more attention for the possibility they'll make some kind of late-season run at a playoff spot, but Carolina has been surprisingly competitive. The Vikings and Panthers are right next to each other in our DVOA ratings, ranking 16th and 17th, respectively. Teddy Bridgewater was very close to starting last week and should be healthy enough to take the reins again for the Panthers in this game, while star receiver Adam Thielen might miss the game for the Vikings due to COVID-19.

Pick: Panthers +4

Walder: Curtis Samuel is hot, scoring touchdowns in three of his last four games and recording his two highest receiving games in his last three games. But that recency appears to be leading to an inflated line. Samuel's expected completed air yards per game -- based on NFL Next Gen Stats' expected completion percent this season age model -- is under 22, less than half this line. While it's true that his catch rate is well above expectation this season (+10%), that is not a norm for him in his career, so I'd expect that to come back to Earth a bit. The only other concern would be Samuel's YAC (especially as a former running back), but over his career he hovers right around his expected YAC totals and this year is averaging 4.3 yards of YAC when an average receiver would have earned 4.8 based on the catches he made.

Pick: Samuel under 48.5 receiving yards (-115)

Las Vegas Raiders (-3, 55.5) at Atlanta Falcons

Kezirian: I have been pitiful handicapping the NFL this season, and a large reason for that is I have abandoned battle-tested philosophies all too often. An old adage implores bettors to forget what they last saw. This game is a classic example of that, so I will side with Atlanta. The Raiders played one of their best games in prime time, nearly upsetting the Chiefs for the second time this season. Las Vegas demonstrated a sharp offense and an aggressive defense. Meanwhile, Atlanta looked offensively inept against New Orleans, and the defense had trouble stopping a backup quarterback. What those performances do is cause the betting market to overreact, thus providing value on the Falcons. So I will grab the points at home with an offense that I feel can light up a Raiders defense that I expect to be flat.

Pick: Falcons +3

Johnson: Life for the Falcons after Dan Quinn's firing had been going pretty well leading up to their bye week. The Falcons had won three of four games, and their only loss was by one point to the Lions after Todd Gurley II tried to go down at the goal line but accidentally scored a touchdown, giving Detroit a chance to win the game in the final minute, which Matthew Stafford did with a touchdown pass to T.J. Hockenson as time expired.

Why are the Falcons being so penalized here for losing to a Saints team that had won six in a row? This opened PK, and now they're getting three points? The New Orleans' defense has been otherworldly of late, too. Remember that 38-3 drubbing of the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay? Not to mention, the Falcons were preparing for Jameis Winston for the majority of the week before the Saints announced Taysom Hill would be the starter. I know the Raiders looked good Sunday against the Chiefs (in a loss), but I disagree pretty heavily with this move. My projection is Atlanta +0.9, and though Julio Jones aggravated a hamstring Sunday and is a game-time decision this week, this is still too drastic of a move on Las Vegas.

Pick: Falcons +3

Sunday's 4 p.m. ET games

New Orleans Saints (-5.5, 43.5) at Denver Broncos

Schatz: Football Outsiders DVOA ratings are driving the New Orleans bandwagon this year. We have the Saints at No. 1, and they rank in the top five in all three phases of the game. Meanwhile, the Broncos' win over Miami helped them climb all the way to 29th. They are the worst offense in the league this year by our numbers, and they're about to play a Saints defense that has been phenomenal over the past three weeks. Denver's defense is good but not great, and ranks just 16th against the run. That's a problem when you're about to face Taysom Hill at quarterback. Obviously, this line accounts for Hill playing instead of Drew Brees, but that's the only reason it isn't double-digits. The gap between these teams is huge.

Pick: Saints -5.5

Marks: Hill completed 78% of his passes for 233 yards and rushed for 51 yards and two touchdowns last week. He played more as a pocket passer than most expected, which indicates how threatening this Saints offense can be when picking your defensive poison. Hill, combined with a Saints defense that logged 11 QB hits and eight sacks against Matt Ryan should be frightening for Drew Lock and his 28th-ranked offensive line. Let the oddsmakers keep doubting the Swiss Army Knife, and I'll keep pocketing money.

Pick: Saints -5.5

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-7.5, 46.5)

Fulghum: The Rams are finally done with East Coast travel and get to stay in the Pacific Time Zone the rest of year. Sunday, they welcome a withered 49ers team to SoFi Stadium, where Sean McVay's squad is 4-0 this season.

The Rams' defense is playing as well as any unit in the NFL. They appear to finally have a competent kicker. The offense is as efficient as ever. The Rams are a complete team. The 49ers -- due to injuries and COVID-19 -- are a complete mess. The Rams win this one by multiple scores and keep the under in play by suffocating the San Francisco offense.

Pick: Rams -7.5; Under 46.5

Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 54) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Fortenbaugh: Kansas City is averaging 32.3 points per game on the road this season and will have the luxury of facing a tired Tampa defense that has yet to refuel during a bye week and is also coming off a Monday night game. As for Tom Brady and the Buccaneers' offense, the upside here is that Kansas City's defense can't generate the same kind of pressure the Rams did in Week 11, meaning it should be much easier to move the ball up and down the field with consistency. After all, despite the 9-1 record, the Chiefs have surrendered 62 points over their past two games to the Panthers and Raiders.

Pick: Over 54

Sunday's 8:20 p.m. game

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-8.5, 45)

Schatz: It's hard to see how the Bears (29th in offensive DVOA) can score enough points to keep up with the Packers (second in offensive DVOA), but their defense is good enough to keep Aaron Rodgers relatively contained. The Bears' defense is fourth in the league in DVOA, and that quality defense keeps games close. Four of the Bears' five losses have been by 8 points or fewer. The Bears are particularly built to neutralize Davante Adams, as they lead the league in DVOA covering opposing No. 1 wide receivers and allow just a 54% catch rate.

Pick: Bears +8.5

Walder: If an average receiver earned the exact targets Darnell Mooney has this year (and from an average QB), we'd expect that receiver to earn 32.5 receiving yards per game on those passes before accounting for any YAC, according to completion probability data from NFL Next Gen Stats. Mooney and Mitchell Trubisky are not an average combination, to be fair, but the point is that Mooney has received plenty of opportunity to hit the over on this prop on average. But here's the cherry on top: that number includes games when Mooney was playing much less. In Weeks 1-5, Mooney played on 59% of Chicago's offensive snaps, but in Weeks 6-10 that number jumped to 84%. That's enough of a jump for me to want the over, despite Trubisky starting at quarterback.

Pick: Mooney over 33.5 receiving yards (-120)

Tuesday's 8 p.m. ET game

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4, 45)

Fulghum: Without running backs Mark Ingram and J.K. Dobbins due to COVID-19, the Baltimore backfield belongs to Gus Edwards. With the way the Baltimore passing game is sputtering, one would think the Ravens lean run-heavy in a matchup with one of the best pass defenses in the NFL.

Pick: Edwards over 58.5 rushing yards

Walder: There's only one good thing about me losing the Marquise Brown receiving yards prop week after week: the line keeps dropping. It has fallen so far that the line is now significantly below Brown's expected completed air yards per game, based on NFL Next Gen Stats' completion probability model. And remember, that's banking on zero yards after catch!

Brown, who had zero catches last week, is so off that his completed air yards over expectation has cracked negative triple-digits. Yikes! The good news is, for his career, he's still just a -1% catch percentage over expectation receiver. That's all I'm asking for here -- a middling catch rate based on the throws he receives -- and this will finally hit.

Pick: Brown over 36.5 receiving yards (-115)

Marks: The Steelers are undefeated, and the Ravens are dealing with COVID-19; I understand why the majority of money is flowing toward the terrible towels, but I'm going against the grain. Games between these two franchises are always close. In their previous meeting, the Ravens outperformed the Steelers in total yards (457 to 221), first downs (25-19) and time of possession by (+9 minutes). The deciding factor was four turnovers -- one that was a pick-six -- and I don't see that happening again. This game should be decided by 3 or 7 points.

Anticipating that both Ingram and Dobbins will be inactive, Gus Edwards should be the bell cow. The last time Edwards faced the Steelers, he rushed 16 times for 87 yards and a score. With no Ingram or Dobbins, Edwards' volume will be increased against a Steelers rushing defense allowing more than 4 yards per carry.

Pick: Ravens +11 in teaser with Washington +9, Edwards over 58.5 rushing yards

[Istandfortheanthem]

Good Paul Leiner 3000* win yesterday! He has another highest rated 3000* today for 1pm. If anybody finds it Thank you in advance!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CIRCA Contest / Las Vegas

Top Six:

PRESENCE-2 --- 7. RAIDERS -3 13. BROWNS -6½ 16. PANTHERS +4 18. TITANS +3 27. CHIEFS -3½

CHICKENDINNER-1 --- 16. PANTHERS +4 19. BILLS -5½ 23. SAINTS -6 26. 49ERS +7 30. BEARS +9½

DSR90-1 --- 10. PATRIOTS +2½ 11. GIANTS -6 13. BROWNS -6½ 16. PANTHERS +4 21. DOLPHINS -7

SUNNYSANDIEGO-1 --- 3. COWBOYS -2½ 5. STEELERS -4 7. RAIDERS -3 10. PATRIOTS +2½ 21. DOLPHINS -7

PRESENCE-1 --- 11. GIANTS -6 13. BROWNS -6½ 16. PANTHERS +4 18. TITANS +3 27. CHIEFS -3½

Sheila's Boys-1 --- 3. COWBOYS -2½ 7. RAIDERS -3 11. GIANTS -6 27. CHIEFS -3½ 31. SEAHAWKS -5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tkwins
3* Buffalo -4
4* Minnesota -2.5
4* Kansas City -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teddy Covers

4* Browns -6
3* 49ers +6.5

[FATMANWINS]

ats
9 raiders
9 giants
9 tampa
0-5 yesterday .

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGAS HOT SHEET

PREMIUM colts..bucks..pit.

Reg..viks,NE,rams, gb,falcon,Seattle

Seattle/vik free