Service Plays Sunday 11/29/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

vegas steam

200 minnesota...5-6 on sun...15-15 ty

[rocky57]

PickWise Sports
CBB 3* Best Bets (8-2-1 year to date)

Texas Tech/Houston Under 138

Play now a 2* as the total has Dropped down to 131

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victory sports

200 tenn....5-6 on sun...15-15 ty

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Marty’s Underdog Play

Triple Play
Jets

[FATMANWINS]

kelso
100 falcons

[rocky57]

H&H Sports
NFL
Triple Dime - Chiefs/Buccaneers Over 55.5
Double Dime - Chargers/Bills Over 51
Double Dime - Giants -6 (-115)
Double Dime - Dolphins -7 (-115)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

King Creole

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LAS VEGAS RAIDERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
5*** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
*Optimum OU line: 55 or less points
1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT / #251-252…

The stage is set for a big-time Dome SHOOTOUT on Sunday as the Falcons host the Las Vegas Raiders in an EARLY kickoff time of 1:00pm ET. We’ve been patiently waiting all season long for the BEST time to play an Atlanta game OVER the Total as a Best Bet… and that time is NOW. Yes, the bar has been set high for us this week, with an OU line in the mid 50’s for this non-conference game. When the line is this high… and we STILL like the OVER… that means that a lot individual team statistics have to be on our side. First off, we have to have not one but TWO quarterbacks who can consistently get their offenses in the Red Zone. And we are getting that here. The best time to back Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan is (a) when he is in the controlled environment of a HOME game… and (b) when he is off a losing, sub-par effort. He had his problems last week in The Big Easy against a very good Saints defense. But the rebound should come pretty easily the week against a defense that’s ranked in the BOTTOM FIVE in passing yards per game allowed. On the flip side, we know what we are getting in Raiders quarterback Derek Carr. A guy who has rejuvenated his career this season. For the year, Carr (78.8) is already ranked as the #4 signal caller in NFL Total QBR rankings. He’s preformed BETTER than Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Deshuan Watson, Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert, and Ben Roethlisberger. Not only that, but Carr was the NUMBER ONE quarterback LAST week in the home loss to the Chiefs (QBR of 95.1!). He’s on a big time roll, and we’re backing him to carve up the horrific Atlanta secondary (2nd LAST this season in passing yards allowed per game at 300.3). More than 73% of the total yards given up by the Falcons have come via the pass. Its a perfect time for the Raiders to REALLY air it out. So we have established that both quarterbacks are capable of putting up a lot of points FAST. And we’ve established that these two defenses are amongst the worst in the league. So far so good. Now, let’s head onto the database in our search for some ‘Over / Under AMMO’ to back us up…

As we have mentioned in the Totals Tipsheet newsletter, non-conference OVERS have been making a major move as of late. 12-1 O/U last 2 years: All GAME 14 or less AFC road teams (RAIDERS) versus a NFC opponent (FALCONS)… And in HIGH-lined non-conference games…

11-1 O/U last 3 years: All > .400 AFC teams (RAIDERS) versus a NFC opponent (FALCONS), when the OU line is a HIGH 52 or more points. These games have gone a perfect 6-0 O/U in the last two years… and 4-0 O/U THIS season… with a gaudy average of 73.0 combined points per game!…

Also a PERFECT 6-0 O/U in this current 2020 season: All AFC WEST Division teams (LAS VEGAS) versus a NFC SOUTH Division opponent (ATLANTA), when the OU line is > 45 points. Average line in these games: 50.0… Average combined points: 61.5… Average OU margin: +11.5 points per game…

The Raiders are off their ‘Division Gauntlet’. 11-0 O/U since 2013: All non-division road teams off back-to-back DIVISION games (RAIDERS), when the OU line is 45 > Points. Average margin in these games: +10.4 ppg…

In fact, Las Vegas has played Kansas City, Denver, AND the LA Chargers in their last three games. 27-11 O/U since 2012: All NFL road teams off 3 or more DIVISION games in a row (RAIDERS)…

Even though they LOST last week, the Raiders are still on a current PERFECT 4-0 game ATS winning streak in their last four games. 28-12-1 O/U since 1998 / PERFECT 9-0-1 O/U since 2014: All GAME 15 < teams off 4 or more ATS wins in a row (RAIDER), when they LOST their last game. Average OU margin: +13.8 ppg…

In the 2nd half of the season, ‘short’ road favorites like the Raiders (currently -3) have been strong OVER plays as of late when the OU line is in the mid-to-high range. 9-1-1 O/U last 3 years: All GAME 8 or greater .500 > road favorites of -3 or LESS points (RAIDERS), when the OU lie is 46 or more points…

After scoring 34 points against a good Denver defense two weeks ago, the Falcons were held to just NINE points last week in their road loss to the Saints. While that low scoring output might scare off the ‘squares’ in this game, it WON’T scare us off. 14-2 o/U since 2007: All NFL teams after scoring < 10 pts AWAY and 34 > pts at HOME in their last two games (FALCONS). Since the 2014 season, the results improve to a perfect 7-0 OU for these teams…

Atlanta lost that division game last week to the Saints by 15 points (24 to 9). 8-0 O/U since 2014: All GAME 11 > underdogs of < 7 points off a Division ROAD loss of > 14 points (FALCONS)…

Many times, the difference between an OVER cashing or losing is the TD / FG ‘splits’. Settling for a filed goal hurts us OVER bettors. We want to see TOUCHDOWNS instead. The good thing for us in this particular game is that BOTH teams (LAS VEGAS and ATLANTA) are ranked in the TOP TEN this season in OPPONENT Red Zone TD percentage (ATL #2 / LV #10).


Pick Made: Nov 25 2020 10:15AM PST

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UnderDog

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Falcons

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R.J. White

Westgate Super Contest

Los Angeles Chargers (+4.5) at Buffalo Bills
This is a good spot to take the Chargers, playing as mid-range underdogs against a good but flawed Bills team. The Chargers offense has been incredible outside of its game against Miami, and they can score points against a Bills defense that's struggled this year. The Chargers defense has given up a lot of points lately but doesn't have the yardage totals to match, so there could be some positive regression in store. And the Chargers can extend drives with their seventh-ranked third-down offense against the Bills' 26th-ranked third-down defense. Both these teams are capable of rallying and making it a close game late, so if you can get more than four in this type of matchup, take the points.

New York Jets +6.5 vs. Miami Dolphins
The Jets have been competitive in their last few games as the offense gets healthier and healthier, and now they're getting Sam Darnold back for this game. That makes them a massive value play against a Dolphins offense that has not looked good despite putting together a five-game win streak before Sunday's loss in Denver. Teams have been able to run all over the Dolphins, but a mediocre Broncos passing attack had no issues carving them up last week either. With Tua Tagovailoa struggling enough to get benched in-game for performance reasons, this has a great chance of being the Jets' first win of the season.

Chicago Bears (+9.5) at Green Bay Packers
The Bears starting Mitchell Trubisky instead of Nick Foles (hip) might be a blessing in disguise. The Bears offense struggled in two easier matchups with Foles at the helm before the bye, and having a QB who can move could open things up a bit. It's notable that the Bears haven't lost by more than eight points in any of Trubisky's five career starts against the Packers. A lot of that is due to the defense, which is having another great season, ranking first in third down and red zone percentage, third in points per drive and fourth in DVOA. The defense will do enough to keep the Packers from throwing up a big number, allowing the Bears to cover.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) vs. Cleveland Browns
The Jaguars roll into this game with Mike Glennon as the starting quarterback and no D.J. Chark outside at receiver. Despite that, I think they're a great value getting a touchdown at home, and it comes down to the team coming to town. Why are the Browns good enough to lay seven on the road without Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward on defense? Their run game is incredible, but the Cleveland passing attack has been lacking all year in virtually every matchup. Glennon is a replacement-level QB, but that's actually an upgrade from what Jacksonville has been getting from Jake Luton. Glennon can cover through the back door late and even have Jacksonville in position to beat this shorthanded Browns squad.

Seattle Seahawks (-4.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Laying a bunch of points with a Seahawks team that has had major defensive issues this season doesn't seem like a great idea, but their defense has actually taken a step forward over the last few weeks, giving up just 44 points in a pair of key divisional games in their last two matchups. And they'll get the benefit of facing an offense that has dealt with poor play from the quarterback and offensive line, which makes it harder for the Eagles to get through the back door late. The Eagles defense also hasn't given up many points lately, but the Seahawks are a different beast than the Giants, Cowboys and Browns. Seattle should be able to win this game by at least a touchdown.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Picks Weekly
Sunday, November 29th 2020

NFL:
Arizona/New England Over +50 (-115)
Cincinnati/New York Under -45
Cincinnati TT Under -19.5
Carolina +3
Green Bay -8
Raiders/Falcons Over +53


NCAAB:
No Plays

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RASzzele DAZZLE

AF +2.5

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Midwest NFL Handicapping

TENN +3
LAC +4
ATL +3.5
NE -1
CHI +8
CLEV -6 (Buy Point)
PITT -10


6 PT Teaser
WASH +3/HOU +3
NYG -.5/CAR +9
TENN +9/GB -1.5
TB +9.5/LAC +10
NE +5/UNDER 56.5
LAR -.5/NO -10.5
TAM +9.5/PHIL +12.5
CLEV -1/GB -1.5
TAM +9.5/OVER 48


OVER/UNDER
KC/TAM OVER 54
TENN/INDY UNDER 52
LAC/BUFF OVER 51

[Can'tPickAWinner]

masters edge

200 tb...1-3 on these

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national sportsline

300 new england...1-1 on these

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Dime Man (7-0 Sat): Jags; Packers