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5-Unit Play: Take 858 UCF -1 over Auburn (7 p.m., Monday, Nov. 30)
While Auburn has had a chance to shake off the rust with a pair of games under its belt, we don't believe it'll be an advantage against UCF. The Knights have had extra time to prep for the Tigers and own the backcourt play that should give Auburn fits. The Tigers are breaking in five new starters and with the tourney ban, having little to play for outside of the SEC. I'm backing Central Florida on Monday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
4-Unit Play. Take #851 Bowling Green (-1.5) over Appalachian State (6 p.m., Monday, Nov. 30)
Better team, better conference. Bowling Green is the favorite to win the MAC this year after winning 21 games and finishing in second place in the East last year. They have stud guard Justin Turner. They have four of their top six players back from last year's team and already gave Michigan all they could handle in their opening game. Appalachian State isn't a bad team at all and they will be in the top tier of the Sun Belt. However, they aren't a great shooting team. They do most of their damage with lock down defense. But nothing they do defensively is going to rattle a Falcons team that plays tough defensive teams in the MAC. I think the Falcons have too much for App State here and will be able to pick up a road win.
3-Unit Play. Take #854 Boston College (-1) over St. John's (6 p.m., Monday, Nov. 30)
I was really impressed with Boston College. They should've beaten Villanova and the beat a very good Rhode Island team over the weekend. The have added depth to their backcourt and their top three guys - Tabbs, Kelly and Ashton-Langford - are all experienced and can all create and make shots. That experience is going to be important here against St. John's full court pressure defense. St. John's lost a lot from last year's team - and last year's team wasn't all that good. They are trying to rebuild with freshmen and JUCOs and I think it is going to take a bit for them to come together. To make matters worse, St. John's has been playing without its two best players and the only two returning starters from last year, Julian Champagnie and senior point guard Rasheem Dunn. I think at full strength it would be tough for St. John's to win this game - their pressure is simply never as effective on the road -
But short-handed I don't think they have enough.
1-Unit Play. Take #861 Georgia State (-2.5) over Mercer (7 p.m., Monday, Nov. 30)
I just think that Georgia State is the better team here. Both teams beat Georgia Tech last week but I was more impressed watching GSU than I was Mercer. Mercer just played out of its mind against Tech, hitting 50% of their 3's and 94% of their free throws. They aren't going to do that again. Georgia State went on the road and beat Mercer by 13 last year and have topped the Bears in back-to-back years. With four starters back from last year's squad I don't see any reason for a different outcome here.
1-Unit Play. Take #864 N.C. State (-22) over William & Mary (7 p.m., Monday, Nov. 30)
I still think William & Mary stinks. They were able to cash against Old Dominion in their first game but that's only because they shot 50% (12-for-24) from 3-point range. They aren't going to do that against N.C. State. The Tribe also allowed 86 points to an offensively-challenged ODU team in the first game so I don't see them stopping the Wolfpack here. N.C. State can pick its score. If they want to win this game by 30 or 35 points they can. If they want to screw around then they could let WM in the backdoor. But the talent gap between these teams is huge so I'll look for N.C. State to win its third straight by 30+.
2-Unit Play. Take #880 Nevada (-6) over Pacific (10 p.m., Monday, Nov. 30)
I wasn't impressed with Nevada in their matchup with Nebraska - they absolutely should've lost that game - but I will say that I think they are a little further along than I expected in this rebuilding season. Pacific was one of the nation's biggest overachievers last season. I think that can be credited to Damon Stoundamire as a coach. However, he lost a lot of production and a good chunk of his rotation from last year. Now he's taking a younger team on the road to face a more athletic Nevada team. I'll go with home court here.
4-Unit Play. Take #7128 California (-8.5) over Nicholls State (7:30 p.m., Monday, Nov. 30)
I think that this is an improved Cal team. They lost their first game to Oregon State, but that's because they simply couldn't make any outside shots. They made some adjustments to their starting lineup in the second game and it paid off, as they are starting a bit more experienced group. Cal is not that good. But they still have much more talent and more size than this Southland Conference opponent. Nicholls State was not competitive in a 16-point loss to a mediocre Santa Clara team.
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