Wednesday 12/2/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-02-2020, 05:11 AM

Jeff Siegel's Gulfstream Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 12/2/20

December 2, 2020

Jeff Siegel’s Gulfstream Park Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Wednesday, December 2, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes. For additional commentary.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 12:35 ET Grade: C+
Use: 4-Alluring Rumba; 7-Coin the Phrase

Forecast: Coin the Phrase plummets in class for her first start since June and goes for a new outfit, so there’s clearly a condition question surrounding the daughter of Goldencents. She beats this field with anything close to her best race, but at 9/5 on the morning she’ll offer little value. Alluring Rumba probably is the more dependable of the two, will be a better price, and has numbers over this course and distance that puts her right there.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:03 ET Grade: X
Single: 7-Excalibur

Forecast: Excalibur drops to the bottom (nw-2, $6,250) and should beat this woeful bunch, but at 9/5 on the morning line (and likely to go lower) there’s not much we can do with the Brethren gelding other than to use him as a no-value, rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:31 ET Grade: B-
Use: 3-Gran Saman; 4-Royal Asset; 6-Disrectionary Mark

Forecast: Gran Saman has seven prior wins over this course and distance and remains above his claim level after a two month freshening. Discretionary Marq is a strong fit at this level, employs a good second flight, stalking style, and should be heard from late. Royal Asset was a nice winner vs. lesser in an off-the-turf sloppy affair last month and this two-level raise in class shows confidence, but he’s only 1-for-17 on turf in his career.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:00 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Simple Story; 3-Omnia

Forecast: Simple Story likes this main track, turns back to a one-turn mile, goes for a powerful jockey/trainer combo, and has been first or second in five of six career starts. Conversely, Omniacan’t really be trusted – she’s been a beaten favorite in three of his last four starts – and is an underlay at 7/5 on the morning line. However, she has numbers that fit and projects to enjoy a good stalking trip. .
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RACE 5: Post: 2:30 ET Grade: C+
Use: 1-Rochambeau; 4-The Angry Man; 5-Break Beat

Forecast: Here’s a race that should be treated with caution as none of these really want to punch it in under pressure. We suspect the winner will be one of the three listed above but none are trustworthy. The Angry Man earned some strong numbers at Saratoga and may be able to out stay this group. Break Beat, freshened since September, projects to be prominent throughout and have every chance. Rochambeau is winless in five starts over the local lawn but is the most dangerous of the closing types and is guaranteed an ideal ground-saving trip.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:00 ET Grade: C+
Use: 2-Brody’s Honor; 3-Piper; 8-Pine Leaf

Forecast: Piper is the quickest on paper and should appreciate this abbreviated sprint trip. Maybe she gets brave today. Pine Leaf drops considerably in class and will be running on late Brody’s Honor is a first-timer from a clever outfit that has good stats with debut runners. How good does she really have to be?
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RACE 7: Post: 3:30 ET Grade: C
Use: 2-Stefanie On Fleek; 4-Little Bit Good; 6-Dienda; 9-Helena Beat

Forecast: Best advice is to tread lightly in this chaotic affair. Any one of the four listed above can win and maybe a few others as well. Stefanie On Feek has decent prior form over the local lawn and back numbers that are better than par for this level. She’ll have every chance from a good inside draw. Helena Beat is a recent winner from Monmouth Park that is properly spotted. Her numbers aren’t great but she knows where the wire is. Little Bit Good is a closer that needs all the help she can get up front. Her speed figures are modest but she’s in solid form. Dienda is a need-the-lead type and can get very brave is she becomes the controlling speed. She may face pressure today from My Masterpiece, though.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:00 ET Grade: B
Use: 3-Trappezoid; 5-Ashaar; 6-Ournationonparade

Forecast: Ashaar was once a fairly well-regarded Into Mischief colt and returns off an 11-month layoff without blinkers and a healthy series of workouts for new trainer T. Pletcher. He won his debut so we know he can fire fresh and could easily be a better type this time around. Ournationonparade was overmatched in the Smile S.-G3 when last seen in September but isn’t today; however, he’s zero-for-seven over the Gulfstream Park main track. Trappezoid backs up to a sprint and always has been most comfortable as a late-running sprinter. Toss him in at 5-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:30 ET Grade: B
Use: 3-Catch a Thrill; 9-Tracy Ann’s Legacy

Forecast: Catch a Thrill has a noticeable edge in the speed figure department and has never been worse than second in four prior outings over this course and distance. She’s pretty solid at 8/5 on the morning line; the only concern is that you have go back nearly two years to find her last win. Tracy Ann’s Legacy is fond of the local lawn and drops into a logical spot while remaining above her claim level. She’s a two-time winner over this course and distance but is only effective on the front end and will need to be quick enough to get over from her outside draw to secure her preferred trip.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:00 ET Grade: C+
Use: 3-Soul Reflection; 9-French Reef

Forecast: French Reef is being culled from the stable while dropping from New York allowance company all the way down to this restricted (nw-2) $16,000 seller. If healthy, he’ll outrun this group but won’t offer much value at 8/5 on the morning line. Soul Reflection is a first-off-the-claim for an outfit that has ridiculously strong numbers with this angle. On pure form he’s not good enough (hence his 10-1 morning line) but D. Rodriquez has a way of moving them up.
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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-02-2020, 05:48 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mountaineer - Race #2

#3 Fearless Lion	Made a mild move for the lead before fading last out at GPW, but he has some two-turn experience that most in here lack, and that may serve him well with these.
#5 Collectthemoney	Woke up while trying maiden claiming company and adding blinkers last time out, and a similar performance would probably do the trick here if he can manage to repeat it going two turns.
#7 Heaven'smymission	Showed only brief tracking pace in the debut run, but he may be able to do better with that race under his belt. Two turns should be in his scope.
Race Summary	Fearless Lion might be the right one to try and beat Collectthemoney, as he caught an easy winner in that GPW run last out and might like the local company.

Mountaineer - Race #6

#4 Two Dot	Steps up after clearing that latest condition, and the recent dirt runs stack up nicely enough with the main two players drawn down inside of him.
#3 General Direction	No doubt the one to beat on the drop after that runner-up effort with better, but the price might get on the short side, and his baseline effort isn't all that much better than what the top choice can offer.
#6 Kandy Charge	Tactical type rallied from last to land a share in that latest try, and he looks like a reasonable one to use underneath with these. Bit of a stretch on top?
Race Summary	Two Dot has been bringing reliable main-track form in recent starts, and he should be able to get a really nice run near the top with these.

Mountaineer - Race #8

#1 I'm a Lawman	He's a good fit with these, having won four of his last five on the main track, and he may offer a playable price in a fairly competitive bunch.
#5 Cash for the Soul	Another who brings really sharp recent form with him to this one, he's got good tactical pace to try and find a first-over spot into the turn.
#8 Dingdingdingding	He has eyes on four in a row in this one after rattling off three wins at Belterra, and he draws well to track the pace from up close with these.
Race Summary	I'm a Lawman is in good form on the main track and seems a threat with these if he's able to work out a trip from the inside with his positional pace.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-02-2020, 05:49 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #2

#5 GRETZKY	Projects ideal trip, figures tough if he stays flat, today’s Best Bet.
#4 UNWRITTEN RULE	Chased 4-to-5 fave around track, Tetrick’s choice over top one.
#2 BETTOR OF THE WEST	Up-close second in last two starts from same post.
Race Summary	Gretzky rallied first-over through a :55 back half three starts ago, but broke stride in two follow-up starts, including one at this level as the 2-to-5 choice. He will get pace to run at and is today’s Best Bet.

Dover Downs - Race #2

#7 AMERICAN DREAMGIRL	Can carry speed the distance with second-time Lasix.
#5 TOOTSY ROLLS QUICK	Rallied for third two back, couldn’t sustain in faster follow-up.
#1 DESIGNED TO DANCE	Steady check-getter, figures up-close with provisional driver.
Race Summary	American Dreamgirl back-pedaled through the field with first-time Lasix, but she still possesses dangerous speed in this spot and is a bounce-back candidate at an inflated price. Play 7-1 and 7-5 exactas.

Pompano Park - Race #1

#1 GARRETT’S GUIDE	Can make good use of his speed from the rail and spring upset.
#5 MOON DOGGIE	Finished in the money in 3 of 4 starts since return.
#7 REPEAL OR REPLACE	Second to stakes three-peater but went off stride in prior pair.
Race Summary	Taking a longshot stab on Pennsylvania invader Garrett’s Guide, who was overhauled on the lead by the favorites two starts ago, then chased wicked fractions in his most recent start. He can go a long way from the rail, especially if even-money favorite Repeal or Replace reverts to his recent breaking habit. Play a 1-ALL exacta.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-02-2020, 05:50 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #3

#3 Gran Saman	Was claimed by Klesaris in September after losing him via claim in June; was a strong second at Monmouth in his first for the new connections and is a seven-time winner over the course.
#4 Ohanzee	Was up in time vs. N3L rivals at Monmouth and has taken three of his last six; has been solid on turf.
#6 Discretionary Marq	Closed to fourth at a higher level at Monmouth and can get a good pace set-up.
Race Summary	Gran Saman has done his share of winning over the Gulfstream turf course and looms as the one to beat after running a closing second last out.

Gulfstream Park - Race #8

#5 Ashaar	Comes out of strong stakes races and makes his first for Pletcher after an 11-month layoff; has trained very well and should get positive results in his return.
#6 Ournationonparade	Was fifth in the G3 Smile Sprint here in September and has been off since; has good races on his form and fits well here.
#7 Life in Shambles	Has been in good sprints lately and makes his third start off the claim by Walder; 9 year old still in good form.
Race Summary	Ashaar has been with good company and Pletcher took over the training from the retired McLaughlin and has shown positive signs in the mornings. Classy enough to be a strong player in his first off the layoff.

Gulfstream Park - Race #9

#5 Sanity	Was an easy winner in impressive fashion at Belmont three races back and has adapted to turf sprints and is the one to hold off here.
#9 Tracy Ann's Legacy	Was fourth in a stakes race last time and had won two of her last three; has speed and class and can overcome the outside post.
#3 Catch a Thrill	Was second here in Gulfstream and has been runner-up in four of her last five; will be in the mix when it counts.
Race Summary	Sanity has some good starts to her credit recently and has the late kick to be effective here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-02-2020, 07:47 AM

Mitchell Newman

Baltimore and Pittsburgh for round two in this year's season series. These teams played back on November 1st and it was the Steelers leaving Charm City with the 28-24 win in a game that landed Over the total. That makes 3 straight between these NFC North rivals having played Over the total.

I do not feel we are headed for a 4th straight Over this time around as the Ravens had played Under the total in their previous pair of games and are 6-4 Under for the season. The Steelers are on a 3-1-2 Under run for their last 5 games, with the lone Over being the early November meeting with the Ravens.

With the fact the Ravens have so many players on the COVID-19/Reserve List, including their starting quarterback Lamar Jackson and with the Steelers having a few players of their own missing this contest, coupled with plenty of missed practice time, I don't see this game being any kind of offensive explosion. Also consider the weather which has some snow in the forecast and I think the better case can be made for playing this game Under the total.

Ravens-Steelers go Low.

3* BALTIMORE-PITTSBURGH UNDER

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-02-2020, 07:48 AM

Trace Adams

Free play for Wednesday afternoon will be to lay the points with the La Salle Explorers as they will pick up their first win of this COVID-19 season when they face the Howard Bison.

Coach Ashley Howard doesn't shy away from playing the "big boys", but he also has no issue collecting wins against the "little brothers" and today's game against Howard qualifies as the latter.

Howard is 0-3 on the young season with double-digit losses to Belmont and George Mason - and that's understandable - but they also have a double-digit loss in the middle to Queens University of Charlotte and that is unacceptable.

I didn't even know there was such a school/team, did you!?!?!?

Anyway, the Explorers pair of losses come to St. Peter's and St. John's - both team have shown early season promise - and today they are moving down the ladder in competition and should be able to have their way against the Bison.

La Salle has yet to get untracked offensively with just 65 and 51 points in their pair of losses, but Coach Howard does have some depth this year with 10 players logging 15 minutes or more in their last loss to the Peacocks.

Howard is figuring out his best rotation of players and this afternoon the "third time is the charm" as the Explorers pull away and win this game by at least 10 points.

2* LA SALLE

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-02-2020, 07:55 AM

Cappers Access

(Wed) NFL Steelers -10
(Wed) NCAAB Gonzaga -8
(Wed) NCAAB Missouri +4

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-02-2020, 07:56 AM

Brandon Siefken

Event: Denmark Basketligaen - Horsens at Bears
Sport/League: BSKT
Date/Time: December 2, 2020 2PM EST
Play: Total Under 177.0 (-124)
These are two of Danish Basketligaen's top teams. The Bakken Bears have been top notch for years but they are more name than performance this year. They have lost me money a few times and my numbers say this game will be Bears 90 Horsens 74, a total of 164, which is 13 points off the line. Bet a half unit on the Under 177 in this game.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-02-2020, 07:56 AM

Kevin Dolan

Event: (224317) Dynamo Kiev at (224318) Juventus
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: December 2, 2020 3PM EST
Play: Total Under 2.75 (+104)
PLAY: UNDER 2.75

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-02-2020, 07:57 AM

Dave Cokin

Event: (661) Montana State at (662) Pacific
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: December 2, 2020 5PM EST
Play: Pacific -6.5 (-110)
Double bounce scenario here. Montana State off a phenomenal game to open its season. The Bobcats blew out UNLV as double digit dogs. The Rebels were horrible to be sure, but Montana State was unconscious throughout. The Bobcats shot nearly 60% overall (30/54) including a brilliant 10/18 on three balls. That's 56%, which means they're currently the best three point shooting team in the country. Considering this team was one of the more mediocre teams on threes last season (just 31.5%) that's a major outlier. Expect a big regression here. Pacific is the opposite end of the spectrum. The Tigers opened with a win over Riverside that looks okay right now in view of how the Highlanders just crushed Washington on the road. Pacific's second game was a loss at Nevada in which they went stone cold over the last 12 minutes and ended up losing by a dozen. The Tigers had a really good 15/6 assists to turnover ratio, but they shot poorly and were simply awful (6/16) at the free throw line. I like matchups like this, where the perceived better team is off a clunker, while the dog is off a sizzling performance. Pacific minus the points to rebound with a solid win and cover.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-02-2020, 07:57 AM

Brandon Siefken

Event: (663) Va Commonwealth at (664) Penn State
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: December 2, 2020 5PM EST
Play: Penn State -4.5 (-110)
My numbers say Penn State is a 17 point favorite. That is a huge discrepancy but the human factors are giving mixed signals. I am so-so confident on this one so I am betting a half unit because the gap between my line and book is so big, but be cautious. The bet is Penn State -4.5 one half unit.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-02-2020, 07:57 AM

Hunter Price

Dec 02 '20, 2:45 PM in 5h
Soccer | Mansfield Town vs Cambridge United
Play on: Mansfield Town +270 at Buckeye

1* Free Pick on Mansfield Town +270

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-02-2020, 08:00 AM

BALTIMORE (6 - 4) at PITTSBURGH (10 - 0) - 11/26/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 100-72 ATS (+20.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
PITTSBURGH is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
PITTSBURGH is 108-80 ATS (+20.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
BALTIMORE is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) as a road underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 2-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-2 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-02-2020, 08:00 AM

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
Baltimore
Baltimore is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Baltimore is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Wednesday 12/2/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Wednesday 12/2/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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