Super Bowl Sunday

[Guest]

Re: Super Bowl Sunday

Fairway Jay

Pit and over

[Guest]

Re: Super Bowl Sunday

L O C K O F T H E D A Y . C O M



Superbowl Lock:

Pittsburgh Steelers -7



Don't be fooled into thinking the Cardinals have a chance at winning this game. Arizona is lucky to be here. Pittsburgh will put so much pressure on old man Kurt Warner he won't know what to do. Warner plays well at times; other times he commits turnover after turnover, interceptions, fumbles, you name it. MARK THIS DOWN: WARNER WILL HAVE A TERRIBLE GAME ON SUNDAY! The Steelers defense is unbelievable! #1 in the NFL, and maybe the best defense, statistically, ever. Arizona is ranked last in the league in rushing. If Arizona can't run and can't pass, how will they win? This game won't be close! Look for some big special teams plays from Santonio Holmes. Look for at least one defensive touchdown by the Steelers defense. Ben Roethlisberger is really playing well. Hines Ward and Holmes will get into the endzone. Willie Parker is the best running back on the field. Pittsburgh is better at just about every position. This is still the same Arizona team that lost 47-7 to New England. The same New England team Pittsburgh manhandled 33-10. This is the same Arizona team that gave up 56 points to the Jets and 35 points to the Vikings. If the Steelers can score 23 on the Ravens defense, how many can they score on the Cardinals defense?! 45?! THE STEELERS ARE A LOCK!!!



LOCK OF THE MONTH

Superbowl Prop Bet:

Edgerrin James Under 42.5 yds rushing



Bet the Under on this proposition bet! THERE IS NO WAY EDGERRIN JAMES COVERS THIS NUMBER!!!!!! First of all, James will be facing the #1 defense in the NFL. Nobody runs on Pittsburgh! Second, James doesn't get the ball!! Tim Hightower has earned the starting job. James gets a few carries to start the game, then Arizona will go to Hightower! Hightower is younger and quicker. James has seriously lost a step. He never makes anybody miss. He is easy to tackle and not elusive like he was to start his career. Arizona has the worst rushing offense in the NFL! They are ranked last! Furthermore, what will happen in this game? The Steelers will have a big second half lead; Arizona will be forced to pass. They will not be running the ball. Even if they do, Hightower will get the carries. The Steelers held the Chargers to 15 yards rushing total!! James might not even play in the second half!

Prop bet Over is 42.5 yards -110 at Sportsbook.com

Prop bet Over is 40.5 yards -125 at Bookmaker.com

Prop bet Over is 38.5 yards -150 at World Sports Exchange

Prop bet Over is 41.5 yards -120 at most Vegas sportsbooks

This bet covers FOR SURE!!!!! Like all our Lock Of The Month wagers, this pick is worth 2 Lock wins or 2 Lock losses. It will be a big fat win!!! No doubt!!!



Superbowl Lock:

Pittsburgh Steelers -250 moneyline



Our third and final bet is simply the Steelers moneyline -250. Want a free $1000 bucks? Put $2500 on the Steelers moneyline and forget about it. EASY MONEY! The Steelers will dominate this game from the get-go. Unlike the past few Superbowls, this one will be a yawner. It won't be close. Take this moneyline bet and collect!!! This bet is worth 1 Lock win or 2.5 Lock losses. The Steelers are clearly the dominant team here. Arizona doesn't stand a chance. Invest any extra $$$ you have on the moneyline and you will get paid. Steelers are a Lock!

[Guest]

Re: Super Bowl Sunday

Brent Crow

ARI and over

[Guest]

Re: Super Bowl Sunday

Teddy Covers

ARI and over

[Guest]

Re: Super Bowl Sunday

The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of “Public” square bets skyrockets. The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone, and their mother, wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual “box-office-pool” – to the professional sports bettor – to the Superbowl commercials: everyone has some interest in the Superbowl.

For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of “Public” money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game's betting line. They'll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the Public will be heavily on one side. “Public Money” dwarfs the amount of “Sharp Money” buying back the shaded lines.

SportsInsights.com and Superbowl XLIII

Contrarian Sports Investing

SportsInsights.com (“SIs”) believes in a contrarian approach to sports investing and seeks out value in the sports marketplace. One of the key parameters to SportsInsights' quantitative approach to sports betting is our proprietary sports betting percentages, compiled from several online sportsbooks. The betting percentages tell us the percentage of bets on each side of a bet. Our research has shown that it normally pays to “fade” the public or “bet against the Public.”

The Public typically likes taking the favorite in most sports events. However, this year's Superbowl shows the Public loving the Arizona Cardinals and their Cinderella march to the Superbowl. This is an interesting departure for the Public and shows how much “value” there might be on the Steelers. This contrarian factor of “fading” the Public points to the Steelers.

Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers

Current Betting Percentages on the Super Bowl
Pittsburg Steelers 42%
Arizona Cardinals 58%

Smart Money and Point Spread Line Movement

SportsInsights uses another indicator that we call “Smart Money Analysis.” This method is more selective but also more powerful because historically, it has had a better winning percentage than using “betting percentages” as a standalone indicator.

For the Superbowl, the “generally-available” line opened at Pittsburgh -6.5. As we saw above, early Superbowl betting has most of the bets (about 60%) coming in on the underdog Arizona Cardinals. Even with the majority of bets landing on Arizona, the line has inched up to Pittsburgh -7. This is a relatively large move in the NFL – especially near a “key number” like 7.

This means that “big money” – which is usually “smart money” – is taking the Steelers. In other words, even though most bettors are on Arizona, “big bets” on Pittsburgh are more than balancing the Public's action on Arizona. This indicator says to go along with the “smart money” and take Pittsburgh.

Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (Bookmaker.com)

Intangibles and Other Contrarian Angles

In addition to our “quant” or “technical” analysis of the sports marketplace (based on “betting percentages” and “line movement”), SportsInsights tries to analyze games using some approaches that resemble “fundamental analysis” in the financial markets.

For example, are there some extraneous factors that make a bet seem over-valued or under-valued? We try to “buy low and sell high” by using a “what-have-you-done-for-me-lately?” factor. That is, the Public tends to exaggerate the importance of recent events.

Arizona's offense has been pounding the opposition. After being one of the highest-scoring teams during the regular season, Kurt Warner and crew have rung up more than 30 points in each of their playoff match-ups. Warner and his receivers look like they are playing pick-up football against a bunch of five-year-olds! The Public loves offense and this is another reason we feel that Arizona is currently over-valued. We'll “sell” the Cardinals at a recent “high.”

During the early part of the regular season, the media focused on teams like Tennessee and both NY teams as “Superbowl favorites.” Later in the season, fans saw teams like the Eagles, the Chargers, and the Colts streak into the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers played “steady football” all season long and “quietly” (if you can call their defense quiet!) ran up a 12-4 record, yielding a league-low 223 points.

Some of the intangibles point to “selling” the Cardinals at a “high” and “buying” a great Steelers team that avoided being over-hyped.

Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (Bookmaker.com)

Quick Analysis of Recent Superbowl Scores

SportsInsights' analysts took a quick peek at recent Superbowl scores.
• 3 out of the last 5 Superbowls were settled by a FG or less.
• 4 out of the last 7 Superbowls were settled by a FG or less.
• 6 out the last 11 Superbowls were settled by a TD or less.

We normally hate giving 7 points or more (or even taking a favorite!). However, we let the numbers do the talking. And, yet again, the recent history of Superbowls (and an emphasis on shorter-term events) might be giving us some value. Over the much larger sample size of 42 Superbowl games:

• 29 out of 42 games have been settled by more than a TD.

Football fans seem to be forgetting how we used to see lopsided (and sadly, sometimes boring) Superbowls. This is giving us some value as the general Public is taking the points in this Superbowl.

Edge: Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 (Bookmaker.com)

Overview

SportsInsights looks for value in a variety of ways. For more information about SportsInsights.com's philosophy on sports investing, please visit our articles on Sports Investing and Value. For live odds and SIs' exclusive “betting percentages” on major U.S. sporting events, please visit Sports Betting Systems Tools Plus Betting Odds and Articles.

Almost all of our regular angles and analysis of the “sports marketplace” point to contrarian value on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Remember to “shop for the best line” because you can still get Pittsburgh -6.5 if you check around. Does defense win Championships? We'll see in a few days.

Games to Watch - Playoff Editions (1-2 = 33.3%)
Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5

[Guest]

Re: Super Bowl Sunday

Kevin Kavitch aka Gamebreakers

The NFL playoffs have produced a 7-1 result heading into the Super Bowl. Overall a monitored 59-38-2 61% for the season and 23-9-1 72% during the past 8 weeks.

Sunday Feb. 1st


It's been a profitable season and Sunday's play backed with full analysis is ready. Check back on the weekend for prop wagers. The props have a very good track record and I'll be looking to find the right ones to exploit again this year. I'm currently ranked 5th in the NFL of the 331 cappers monitored by WagerTracker this season.

Arizona +7

I'm backing Arizona in the big game. Let's get to the point, the real heart and soul
of why I'm taking the points with the Cardinals. They are a long-time doormat, a
joke among the league for many years. They believe in their coaches and won't be
intimidated. In fact, I love them in the underdog role given their history. Don't
discount what their history and togetherness means when it comes to motivation and
performance. That doesn't show up in the numbers and the talking heads on TV don't
put enough value on this. They won't be able to see past the Pittsburgh D. Keep in
mind they were also dogs vs Atlanta, Carolina, and Philly headed into this one and
"shocked" the public in each game. This was supposed to be "the worst playoff team
in NFL history". You know what I think of this team because we've picked up 2 solid
wins with them in the playoffs and the same things apply. The fact is
they're undervaled because of a slide in the 2nd half of the season which is
understandable given their huge lead in the division. With a solid OL that has
played together all year, a top-flight QB playing at the top of his game, a great
group of receivers, and an improved D they have a punchers chance against anyone.
That includes the Steelers and that terrific D. Remember what they did in the 1st
half of the Carolina and Philly games to the opposing defenses, defenses that were
playing at high levels. Arizona proved to be too much, especially Warner who knows
how to read D's and play in big games. Also remember that in the Steelers last 4
games, Tennesee put up 31 and San Diego put up 24. They are very good but not
invincible and Arizona has scored 30+ in 3 straight playoff games this year. The
Steeler offense isn't going to dominate the Cardinals. Arizona is much improved vs
the run down the stretch and they can put pressure on the QB and force turnovers. If
Arizona plays well offensively, Pittsburgh is not going to have a cake-walk keeping
pace. Then you get to the coaching staffs and I really like the knowledge the
Arizona staff has when it comes to Pittsburgh. Alot of ex-Steeler coaches that have
2 weeks to figure out how to put all those little things to use. I won't go into
alot of detail, just know a significant edge is there. So Arizona was a joke for
years and maybe the Arizona coaches know some stuff but it still doesn't mean much
to you? C'mon, we're talking Pittsburgh here. Well, think back to 2002 when the
longtime doormat Bucs led by ex-Raider coach Gruden faced off against favored
Oakland. The Bucs won outright by 27 and delivered us a solid Super Bowl win that day. But you know what I remember? The players talking afterward about the motivation they had after being a bad team for so long and the edge the former Raider coach game them.
Sound similar to what we have here? It does to me. That's the soul of this game. Add
that Super Bowl it all underdogs have performed extremely well this decade and we're
catching +7 on a neutral field. That's a big edge and could easily come into play.
I'm taking Arizona for a 4* Regular Play plus I'm laying an extra 1/2* on Ariona to
win outright on the +220 moneyline.

Enjoy the game and check the site on the weekend for additional prop wagers.

[Guest]

Re: Super Bowl Sunday

Scott ferrall

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SUPER BOWL PROP BETS
TAILS -105

STEELERS WIN COIN TOSS -106

STEELERS RECEIVE OPENING KICK -105

PITTSBURGH -150 to SCORE FIRST

TEAM TO SCORE LAST (ARIZONA +100)

WILL EITHER TEAM SCORE IN FIRST 6 MIN ?** YES -105

WILL EITHER TEAM SCORE 3 STRAIGHT TIMES WITHOUT OTHER TEAM SCORING=* NO +140 (conversions excluded)

WILL EITHER TEAM SCORE IN LAST 2 MIN OF FIRST HALF ?** YES -240

WILL EITHER TEAM SCORE IN LAST 3 1/2 MIN OF GAME ?** NO* +130

FIRST SCORE WILL BE= TD -170

FIRST TD WILL BE A (PASS OR ANY OTHER SCORE) ?*** ANY OTHER SCORE +160

LAST SCORE OF GAME WILL BE ?*** TD -210

WILL 1 QTR OF GAME BE SCORELESS ?** NO -280

WILL STEELERS HAVE FIRST HALF RUSHING TD ?** YES +100

STEELERS WILL SCORE IN BOTH 1st AND 2nd QTRS ?* YES -170

STEELERS WILL CONVERT a 4th DOWN IN GAME ?* YES +140

CARDINALS WILL SCORE A RUSHING TD ?* NO* -150

CARDINALS WILL SCORE IN 1st and 2nd QTRS ?* NO -140

BIG BEN OVER 17.5 COMPLETIONS** -115
BIG BEN OVER 30.5 PASS ATTEMPTS -115

HINES WARD TD ?* NO -170

SANTONIO HOLMES SCORED TD ?* YES +150

HEATH MILLER TD ?** YES* +180

KURT WARNER TD PASS in 1st HALF ?* YES* -145

WARNER INTERCEPTION ?* YES -220

HIGHTOWER TD ?* NO -250

EDGE JAMES TD RUSHING ?* NO -440

FITZGERALD TD ?* YES -115

BOLDIN TD ?* NO -180

BREASTON TD ?* YES

FIRST INTERCEPTION ?* WARNER -200

FIRST TD PASS ?* BIG BEN -130

ODDS TO WIN MVP ?* SANTONIO HOLMES 15-1

FIRST SCORE ?* STEELER TD PASS 4-1

HIGHEST SCORING QTR ?** 3rd (3-1)

STEELERS WIN BY 12-15 points** (6-1)


2/1/2009
ULTIMATE SUPER BOWL TEASER
(RISK VIG x 4--$140 laid out to win 100--loser pays $140)

STEELERS +5************************* CARDINALS +19
OVER 35*********************************** UNDER 59
based on Steelers -7******************** based on over/under 47

2/1/2009
SUPER BOWL 1ST HALF SPREAD
PITTSBURGH -3.5 to Zona

2/1/2009
SUPER BOWL SPREAD AND TOTAL
PITTSBURGH -7 to Arizona

OVER 47

SUBJECT TO LINE CHANGE

2/1/2009
SUPER BOWL FEB 1 MONEY LINE
PITTSBURGH -250

[Guest]

Re: Super Bowl Sunday

THE PREZz

8* Arizona
5* over

[Guest]

Re: Super Bowl Sunday

LT PROFITS

3*pitt

[Guest]

Re: Super Bowl Sunday

Alex Smart

7* pitt

[Guest]

Re: Super Bowl Sunday

spylock

Pittsburgh....1 unit

[Guest]

Re: Super Bowl Sunday

HUDDLE UP SPORTS

Lock Parlay
Pittsburgh -7

&

Arizona/Pittsburgh under 46'

[Guest]

Re: Super Bowl Sunday

Doug Williams

With the line moving slightly, I've got two picks -- depending on where the line is when you place your bets.

If the line is Pittsburgh -6.5, take the Steel Curtain as small faves, BUT if you can get action on the Cardinals at +7 or higher, put some faith in Warner, Fitzgerald and that crazy passing game.

Over/Under 46.5 -- Take the OVER. This game will be pushing up the total from the 1st Quarter. Even if you don't root for either of these teams, cheer for scores and pad your bankroll.

[Guest]

Re: Super Bowl Sunday

Mike Francesa - WFAN & YES
Pitt 34-23
Does feel there will be a special teams td or a t/o return for TD for Pitt

[Guest]

Re: Super Bowl Sunday

APwins

SUPER BOWL PICK

Cardinals +7 over Steelers