Tuesday 12/8/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee

Dec 08 '20, 7:30 PM in 59m
NCAA-B | Ohio State vs Notre Dame
Play on: Notre Dame +6 -110 at pinnacle

PICK - Notre Dame +6
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 816
Love the price we are getting with Notre Dame as a 6-point home dog against the Buckeyes. Ohio State comes into this game 3-0 and ranked No. 22 in the country, but I'm not quite sold on the Buckeyes.
Ohio State's 3 wins have come against Illinois State, UMass Lowell and Morehead State. All 3 of those teams rank outside the Top 220 in KenPom's rankings.
Let's also not overlook what Ohio State lost from last year, as 4 Top 100 recruits went out the door. Their best player from last year, Kaleb Wesson, left early for the NBA, while Luther Muhammad, D.J. Carton and Alonzo Gaffney all transferred.
Adding to all those highly touted recruits leaving, Ohio State failed to bring in a Top 100 recruit for the first time since 2012.
Notre Dame had a really down year in 2018-19 going just 14-19 with a 3-15 mark in ACC play. They got back on track last year, finishing 20-12 with a 10-10 mark in ACC (went 9-4 over their last 13 games).
They have an experienced bunch for the 2020-21 season with all their key players being juniors and seniors. They are just 1-1, but their lone loss was by just 10 to Michigan State and they led in that game 26-22 late in the 1st half. I not only think they cover, but I give them a shot to win outright. Give me the Fighting Irish +6!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sal Michaels

Dec 08 '20, 7:30 PM in 59m
NCAA-B | North Carolina vs Iowa
Play on: North Carolina +3½ -110 at William Hill

Free Play on North Carolina +3½ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dustin Hawkins

Dec 08 '20, 7:30 PM in 59m
NCAA-B | Ohio State vs Notre Dame
Play on: OVER 140½ -107

1 Dimer on Ohio State vs Notre Dame over 140½ -107

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Will Rogers

Dec 08 '20, 8:05 PM in 1h
NFL | Cowboys vs Ravens
Play on: Ravens -7 -120 at BMaker

The set-up: Dallas has fought through adversity this year, but after Thanksgiving's 41-16 blowout home loss to Washington in which it was outgained 338 to 247, I think the Cowboys have finally officially "run out of gas." Overall Dallas averages only 22.8 PPG, while conceding an NFL-worst 32.6.
The pick: Baltimore has been dealing with COVID issues the last few weeks, but the good is that starting QB LaMar Jackson will be back under center for the Ravens. Baltimore averages 25.6 PPG and it allows only 19.5. Baltimore is also interestingly 5-0 ATS in its last five home games in December, while Dallas is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven on the road. Consider Baltimore in this one.
This is a 1* FREE PLAY on the Baltimore Ravens.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Alexander

Dec 08 '20, 9:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-B | Jackson State vs Mississippi State
Play on: Mississippi State -17 -108 at pinnacle

1* CBB - Jackson St/Mississippi St *FREE PICK* on Mississippi State -17
This is a good price to take a shot on Mississippi State at home, as I feel there's a really good chance that the Bulldogs win this game by at least 20 points. This is not a great Mississippi State team by any means, but Jackson State is a team they should handle with ease.
The Tigers will be at a disadvantage here with this being their first game of the season. Mississippi State has already played 4 games. Jackson State returns just 2 starters from a team that finished 15-17. Note 11 of those 15 wins came in conference play. They were just 3-10 in non-conference action last year and two of those wins were against non DI opponents. The only win was against Portland, who finished 9-22 and went 1-15 in the WCC.
It's also worth noting Jackson State was one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country last year, ranking 351st at KenPom. Mississippi State ranks in the Top 50 this season in 2-Pt % defense and 7th in block %. As long as the Bulldogs don't have an awful night shooting, they should have no problem creating the separation needed to cover this big number. Bet Mississippi State -17!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones

Dec 08 '20, 9:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-B | Penn State vs Virginia Tech
Play on: Penn State +5½ -109 at Draft Kings

Jack’s Free Pick Tuesday: Penn State +5.5
This looks like a great time to ’sell high’ on the Virginia Tech Hokies. They are off to a surprising 4-0 start this season that has them ranked 16th in the country. That includes an upset win over Villanova.
But the Hokies are coming off a 64-57 win as a 20-point favorite over Virginia Military. They actually trailed in that game by four points with eight minutes to go. And that’s the same VMI team that Penn State throttled 86-65 in their opener this season.
Penn State went on to beat VCU 72-69 at home. And then last time out they built a 29-10 lead in the opening nine minutes against Seton Hall. They even blew an 8-point lead with two minutes left, eventually losing 92-98 in overtime to the Pirates. The Nittany Lions want to erase that sour taste from their mouths here.
Penn State is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 after scoring 80 points or more. Virginia Tech is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 vs. good teams that outscoring their opponents by 4-plus points per game. The Nittany Lions are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games as road underdogs. The Hokies are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games overall. Virginia Tech is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 home games. Bet Penn State Tuesday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Martin

Dec 08 '20, 9:30 PM in 2h
NCAA-B | Illinois vs Duke
Play on: Illinois +4 -108 at Draft Kings

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Illinois +4
I’m not sure what the books have seen from Duke to make them a favorite over Illinois tonight. The Blue Devils are 2-1 SU but 0-3 ATS this season. They only beat Coppin State by 10 as a 39-point favorite and failed to cover by 29 points. They lost by 6 as a 5.5-point favorite to Michigan State and failed to cover by 11.5 points. And last time out they only beat lowly Bellarmine by 22 as a 31-point favorite, failing to cover by 9 points. Now they are 4-point favorites here against a Top 10 Illinois team that is loaded this season. The Fighting Illini played Baylor tough for 30 minutes before the Bears took over down the stretch for a 13-point win. And Baylor may be the best team in the country as they are ranked 2nd behind Gonzaga. Illinois has four returning starters while Duke had to break in five new starters this season. Mike Krzyzewski has started eight different players to try and find the right chemistry. We’ll back the veteran team here over the inexperienced one. Give me Illinois.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Williams

Dec 08 '20, 9:30 PM in 2h
NCAA-B | Illinois vs Duke
Play on: Illinois +4½ -115 at pinnacle

1* on Illinois +4½ -115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Black Widow

Dec 08 '20, 9:30 PM in 2h
NCAA-B | Syracuse vs Rutgers
Play on: Rutgers -3½ -110 at William Hill

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Rutgers -3½ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB

Tuesday, December 8

Creighton @ Kansas
Creighton (3-0)
— 4 starters back from LY’s 24-7 team
— picked 2nd in Big East by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #15 by KenPom
— Creighton scored 85.3 ppg in its first three games.
— Bluejays are shooting 66.3% inside arc.
— Creighton starts 3 seniors, 2 juniors (#25 in minutes continuity)

Kansas (4-1)
— 3 starters back from LY’s 29-3 team
— picked 2nd in Big X by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #9 by KenPom
— Jayhawks beat Kentucky by 3, lost by 12 to Gonzaga.
— Kansas was down 3 with 3:57 left vs North Dakota State Saturday.
— Kansas is #230 in experience, has one senior who plays.

Purdue @ Miami
Purdue (3-1)
— 3 starters back from LY’s 16-15 team
— picked 11th in Big 14 by Blue Ribbon.
— ranked #29 by KenPom
— Purdue lost to Clemson by 11; best team they beat is #121 Liberty.
— Boilers made 43.6% of their 3’s in four games.
— Purdue plays three juniors, three frosh, a soph; they’re #280 in experience.

Miami (2-0)
— 3 starters back from LY’s 15-16 team
— picked 10th in ACC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #47 by KenPom
— Miami beat a couple stiffs, by 18-22 points.
— Hurricanes start three seniors; they’re #139 in experience.
— Miami was 12-26 in ACC last two years; supposed to be better this year.

Colorado @ Tennessee
Colorado (2-0)
— 3 starters back from LY’s 21-11 team
— picked 6th in Pac-12 by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #51 by KenPom
— Colorado beat South Dakota, K-State, hasn’t played in 11 days.
— Buffs already have one road win; they shot 62.5% inside arc vs K-State
— Colorado starts three seniors, two juniors; they’re #64 in experience.

Tennessee
— 4 starters back from LY’s 17-14 team
— picked 1st in SEC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #21 by KenPom
— This is Tennessee’s season debut.
— Vols had COVID issues; coach Barnes had it.
— Tennessee is supposed to be deeper, more experienced, play faster

Montana @ Georgia
Montana (0-3)
— 2 starters back from LY’s 18-13 team
— picked 3rd in Big Sky by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #161 by KenPom
— Griz lost by 14 at USC, lost twice at SUU by one point each.
— Montana is shooting 46.2% inside arc (#197), 63.8% on line (#215)
— Montana starts two frosh, two sophs (experience #253)

Georgia (3-0)
— 4 starters back from LY’s 16-17 team
— picked 5th in OVC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #92 by KenPom
— Dawgs beat pair of stiffs by 10-33 points in first two D-I games.
— Georgia is shooting 60.8% inside so far.
— Georgia is #116 in experience, only #216 in minutes continuity.

Boston College @ Minnesota
Boston College (1-3)
— 3 starters back from LY’s 13-19 team
— picked 14th in ACC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #85 by KenPom
— BC lost three of four so far; they’ve played schedule #16.
— Eagles lost by 9 to Villanova, 4 to St John’s, 20 to Florida.
— Opponents are shooting 59.4% inside arc vs BC (#272)

Minnesota (4-0)
— 2 starters back from LY’s 15-16 team
— picked 7th in Big 14 by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #44 by KenPom
— Gophers allowed 68.8 ppg in winning first four games.
— Minnesota is forcing turnovers 24.3% of time (#40)
— schedule (#223) hasn’t been great so far.

North Carolina @ Iowa
North Carolina (3-1)
— 1 starter back from LY’s 11-21 team
— picked 8th in WCC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #131 by KenPom
— UNC won three of four games, losing by 2 to Texas in Maui Classic final.
— Tar Heels allowed 60.3 ppg in first four games.
— UNC is experience team #271 has turned ball over 22.1% of time.

Iowa (3-0)
— 4 starters back from LY’s 21-10 team
— picked 1st in Big West by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #130 by KenPom
— Iowa beat three stiffs, scoring 99.7 ppg.
— Hawkeyes are playing pace #40, have #19 eFG%.
— Iowa starts two juniors, two seniors; is Garza best player in country?

Ohio State @ Notre Dame
Ohio State (3-0)
— 2 starters back from LY’s 16-14 team
— picked 9th in Big Sky by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #306 by KenPom
— Buckeyes beat up on three stiffs, by 27-10-33 points.
— Ohio St allowed 58.3 ppg so far; opponents are shooting 30.9% inside arc.
— OSU’s starts 2 juniors, 2 seniors, are playing pace #308.

Notre Dame (1-1)
— 3 starters back from LY’s 20-12 team
— picked 13th in ACC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #81 by KenPom
— Irish lost by 10 at Michigan State, beat Detroit by 8.
— Notre Dame is shooting 43.2% outside arc, 39.5% inside arc.
— Irish start four juniors and a senior; they played six guys vs Detroit.

Austin Peay @ Murray State
Austin Peay (3-1)
— 3 starters back from LY’s 21-12 team
— picked 3rd in OVC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #146 by KenPom
— Governors won two of first three D-I games (vs schedule #175)
— Austin Peay turned ball over 24.6% of time in those games.
— Governors rebounded 38% of their own missed shots (#20)

Murray State (2-1)
— 3 starters back from LY’s 23-9 team
— picked 2nd in OVC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #111 by KenPom
— Racers beat Illinois State by 11, lost to MTSU by 17.
— Murray turned ball over 24.2% of time so far.
— Racers start 3 juniors, 2 seniors; they’re #211 in experience.

— Murray State won 7 of last 8 series games.
— Racers beat Austin Peay by 12 in OVC tourney LY.

Penn State @ Virginia Tech
Penn State (2-1)
— 3 starters back from LY’s 21-10 team
— picked 12th in Big 14 by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #62 by KenPom
— Lions blew 18-point lead in OT loss to Seton Hall Sunday.
— PSU beat VCU by 3; they’re forcing turnovers 23.1% of time (#50)
— Lions start two juniors, two seniors (#40 in experience).

Virginia Tech (4-0)
— 3 starters back from LY’s 16-16 team
— picked 12th in MW by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #26 by KenPom
— Hokies won first four games, with an OT win over Villanova.
— Tech allowed only 62.5 ppg in four games so far.
— Hokies have played slow (#331) pace.

Illinois @ Duke
Illinois (3-1)
— 4 starters back from LY’s 21-10 team
— picked 3rd in Big 14 by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #24 by KenPom
— Illini won three of four games, losing by 13 to Baylor, its only top 100 game.
— Illinois is #2 in country on offensive boards, #6 on defensive end.
— Illini shot 45.1% on arc in its first four games.

Duke (2-1)
— 2 starters back from LY’s 25-6 team
— picked 2nd in ACC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #6 by KenPom- they start 3 frosh, 2 sophs.
— Duke lost 75-69 at home to Michigan St last week.
— #286 experience team turned ball over 23.3% of time so far.
— Duke beat Coppin St by 10, Bellarmine by 22 for its wins.

Syracuse @ Rutgers
Syracuse (3-0)
— 4 starters back from LY’s 18-14 team
— picked 9th in ACC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #40 by KenPom
— Syracuse scored 82,3 ppg in three wins over stiffs.
— Orange is forcing turnovers 22.9% of time (#58).
— Syracuse is #247 experience team; their subs play minutes #257

Rutgers (3-0)
— 4 starters back from LY’s 20-11 team
— picked 6th in Big 14 by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #32 by KenPom
— Rutgers allowed 64.7 ppg in its three wins, best of which is #160.
— Scarlet Knights are shooting 55.1% on foul line, 29.3% on arc.
— Rutgers has #39 eFG% defense in country.

Cal-Irvine @ USC
Cal-Irvine (1-2)
— 1 starters back from LY’s 21-11 team
— picked 2nd in Big West by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #149 by KenPom.
— Irvine allowed 81.5 ppg in losing first two D-I games, to Pepperdine, San Diego St
— Anteaters turned ball over 25.7% of time so far.
— UCI is #285 in experience; they start three sophs and a junior.

USC (3-1)
— 1 starter back from LY’s 22-9 team
— picked 8th in Pac-12 by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #50 by KenPom.
— USC is 3-1 this year, splitting pair at Mohegan Sun last week.
— Opponents are shooting 35.3% inside arc against the Trojans.
— USC won its two games vs teams outside top 100, by 8-14 points.

UTEP @ Saint Mary’s
UTEP (2-0)
— 3 starters back from LY’s 17-15 team
— picked 10th in C-USA by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #197 by KenPom
— UTEP beat couple NAIA teams by 19 points each.
— Miners scored 92 ppg in first two games; how good were the opponents?
— UTEP is 11-25 in C-USA the last two years.

Saint Mary’s (4-1)
— 2 starters back from LY’s 26-8 team
— picked 5th in WCC by Blue Ribbon
— ranked #68 by KenPom
— Gaels lost by 17 to Memphis, beat South Dakota State by 13.
— St Mary’s is playing pace #354, very slow.
— Gaels’ senior PG is only senior who plays (experience #225)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

791PURDUE -792 MIAMI
PURDUE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games after a game giving up 5 or less offensive rebounds in the last 3 seasons.

793CREIGHTON -794 KANSAS
CREIGHTON is 16-6 ATS (9.4 Units) versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons.

795IDAHO ST -796 UTAH
UTAH is 74-49 ATS (20.1 Units) in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game since 1997.

797COLORADO -798 TENNESSEE
COLORADO is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in road games after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite in the last 3 seasons.

799N KENTUCKY -800 DAYTON
N KENTUCKY is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in road games after having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.

799N KENTUCKY -800 DAYTON
Darrin Horn is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in road games after having won 2 of their last 3 games (Coach of N KENTUCKY)

801BOSTON COLLEGE -802 MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.

805BALL ST -806 N ILLINOIS
N ILLINOIS are 6-0 ATS (6 Units) after allowing 85 points or more in the last 3 seasons.

807MONTANA -808 GEORGIA
GEORGIA is 99-64 ATS (28.6 Units) after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds since 1997.

809RIDER -810 ST JOHNS
RIDER is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in road games as a dog in the last 3 seasons.