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OSKEIM SPORTS
- Game: (353) New England Patriots at (354) Miami Dolphins
Date/Time: Dec 20 2020 1:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: New England Patriots +1.5 (-110)
New England has won its past nine games against starting rookie quarterbacks. The last rookie quarterback to beat head coach Bill Belichick was Geno Smith on October 20, 2013. Since that loss, Belichick has created misery for the following rookie quarterbacks: Derek Carr (Raiders), Marcus Mariota (Titans), Cody Kessler (Browns), Jared Goff (Rams), Deshaun Watson (Texans), Josh Allen (Bills), Sam Darnold (Jets), Daniel Jones (Giants) and Justin Herbert (Chargers).
In the two instances in which Belichick was installed as an underdog against a rookie quarterback, the Patriots won both games by a combined score of 85-23. Belichick is a profitable 10-4 ATS in his last fourteen showdowns with rookie quarterbacks, limiting the opposing offenses to just 11.8 points per game. The most recent rookie quarterback to face Belichick was Justin Herbert in Week 13, and he averaged a pathetic 3.9 yards per pass attempt with two interceptions.
Miami ranks 21st in offensive efficiency this season and the unit is averaging just 288 yards per game under quarterback Tua Tagovaila. Since Tagovaila took over as a starter in Week 8, the Dolphins have tallied 170 points in seven games. However, 51 percent of those points have come by way of either (a) special teams (b) defensive touchdowns or (c) drives following an opponent turnover. The Dolphins rank 28th in net yards per play, which indicates that they rely on turnovers and/or short fields to score points.
The matchup is extremely favorable for New England's run-heavy attack. In fact, the Dolphins are 21st in the league in defensive success rate against the run despite playing the fifth easiest schedule of opposing rush offenses. New England owns the NFL's fifth-best rushing offense (147.5 yards per game) and garnered 217 yards on the ground in its season-opener against the Dolphins.
Quarterback Cam Newton had a season-high 15 rushes attempts (75 yards and two scores) in the Week meeting, and I expect a similar output on Sunday. Consider that Miami yielded 106 rushing yards and one score to the only other mobile quarterback they faced this season - Arzona's Kyle Murray. New England will be motivated by the fact that they are underdogs in this series for the first time since 2013, and it's the first time Miami has been favored by more than one point over the Patriots since 2003.
Finally, Belichick is a profitable 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS following a game in which the Patriots scored seven or fewer points, including 5-0 ATS on the road and 5-0 ATS as an underdog. With Belichick standing at 18-6 SU and ATS following a loss of 14 or more points, including 7-0 ATS as an underdog, take the Patriots and invest with confidence.
- Game: (363) Philadelphia Eagles at (364) Arizona Cardinals
Date/Time: Dec 20 2020 4:05 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Total Over 49.0 (-115)
After abandoning designed runs with quarterback Kyle Murray for several weeks due to a nagging injury, head coach Kliff Kingsbury called Murray's number thirteen times against the Giants last week. Arizona's offense thrives when Murray uses his legs and I expect Kingsbury to continue calling designed runs now that his quarterback is healthy.
The Cardinals' offense is 14th in the league in both Total DVOA and Pass DVOA, and those numbers should improve against an injury-riddled Philadelphia secondary that is without both starting cornerbacks and three-fourths of its original secondary.
Specifically, Philadelphia cornerback Darius Slay did not travel with the team and is out with a concussion, while Avonte Maddox and Rodney McLeod were recently placed on injured reserve with knee injuries. The loss of Slay is particularly devastating in that he is usually tasked with covering the opponent's best receiver and will be replaced by reserves like Kevon Seymour and practice squad players in safety Blake Countess and cornerback Jameson Houston.
Philadelphia's backups allowed 8.0 yards per pass play and a 50% success rate against the Saints last week and will be exploited once again by an Arizona offense that employs four wide receivers a league-high 22% of the time. Wider receiver DeAndre Hopkins is averaging 2.29 yards per route run, 7th best among qualified receivers, and is primed to have a career day against a patchwork Philadelphia secondary.
Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts has reinvigorated the Eagles' offense, producing 56 yards on fourteen designed runs while also scrambling for 50 yards on four carries. The Eagles possess a top 5 rush offense despite playing the 4th most difficult schedule of opposing defenses and should move the chains against an Arizona defense that is 21st in the league in success rate allowed to opposing offenses since Week 10 when interior lineman Corey Peters was injured.
Finally, both offenses play at a fast pace, ranking second and fourth, respectively, in offensive pace (snap to snap) and first and second, respectively, in no-huddle rate. Take the OVER and invest with confidence.
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